KOA exclusive - Football finance expert Kieran Maguire on Ipswich Town’s return to the Premier League

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1:08hello everyone and welcome to a kings of anglia podcast special you've got me alex jones today a bit of a rarity and i am joined by everyone's favorite football finance expert yours and mine you can't even see in there here he is kieran mcguire from the price of football podcast kieran this has become a bit of an annual event and we love it we love having you on we love talking through all the Ipswich Town finances all the big stories all the big narratives there's a lot going on at Ipswich Town since we've done this they've been promoted they've been relegated they've been promoted again a busy few years but how are you how have the last few weeks the last few months the last year treated you?

1:48Pretty good I'm a Brighton fan so we we're in Europe again next year which uh we would have we would have taken in a heartbeat in february after one defeat after one victory in 13 matches um and then then the season sort of tailed off so yeah yeah all all is good uh the world of football finance the politest way of describing it i appreciate this is a family show is is keeping me very busy um and and that's that's good i mean i i'm a teacher uh i like explaining things that's my job and to be able to do it in a in a different environment in different industries is great fun yeah and you like explaining things which is good because for i think the millionth time probably since the season has ended you are going to have to sit here and talk about those three big letters scr squad cost ratio we're going to come on to that one because i think fans are going to have a lot of questions about that one but i want to start with I suppose I look back and Ipswich from the end of last season promotion it looked like it might not happen and it looked like it would then it looked like it wouldn't and then they finally got it over the line that 2-0 victory against QPR on final day and there's a lot that gets said about promotion and the figure I think especially with the playoff final it's the game that's worth 100 million pounds and I think that that is probably maybe a little bit of a dated figure from what I've seen when you look at the last few years and how that's always said by commentators, isn't it?

3:20When the players walk out at Wembley, is that nearer to£200 million? Promotion for Ipswich Town, how much would you say that that is worth? In total, it's probably now worth in the region of£200 to£220 million. And the reason why I say that, and Ipswich are in a slightly different position to that of Hull City. me, Hull City, it was the outcome of one football match. It's which could have been promoted had they not won on that final day, if other results had, again, gone in favour. So there's always those complications. But the playoff final, and I attended it, and it was a fantastic atmosphere.

4:00The football, I think, reflected the degree of angst that was associated with the game. But both sets of fans were magnificent. it's probably worth 200 to 220 million pounds because if we go back to season 23, 24, it's slightly different for Ripswich Town because they've been in receipt of parachute payments. And the parachute payments would have been probably in the region of 48, 49 million pounds this season. And when I'm talking this season, I'm talking 25, 26. That will go up to a minimum of 108. So that will be a£60 million increase. Now, if you contrast that with when Ipswich were promoted in 23, 24, they would have got£10 million from the TV deal.

4:53The EFL have renegotiated the TV deal since then. So you now get around about£12 million. So a club who is not in receipt of parachute payments goes from£12 to£108, probably a bit more than£108. So let's say that that's 100 million pounds benefit. You've then got the fact that on top of that, your commercial income will more than double. So again, if we go back to 22, 23, Ipswich generated 10 million pounds in commercial income last season in the Premier League, it was 40 million. Why is that? It's because brands want to be associated with the Premier League. Ipswich Town's name is now going out to 190 different countries every weekend such is the strength of the Premier League brand so whether that's the front of shirt deal that you're able to renegotiate if you think about those those LED advertising slots if you're getting 500 pounds for a 30 second slot or whatever it is in the championship you add a zero when you hit the Premier League and then you sort of focus on things like match day income not not a lot of a change because it's which you've got a very loyal fan base and Portman Rhodes sells out regardless of whether you're in the championship or the Premier League and of course you've got fewer games you know you're going from 23 to 19 games so match day income only went up by 8 % um in in 24 25 but that reflects prices were up perhaps a wee bit uh in terms of match day uh where the main benefit is is that the the marketing department who are selling the boxes who are selling the packages who are selling the experiences um of a match day event at portman road they go like this oh how much how much do you think we should charge for when the champions after come to town we know that manchester united and liverpool and clubs of that stature will attract a lot of interest so yeah they can't name their own price but they can certainly extract more from the the prawn sandwich munchers because these people are interested in being able to show off to their clients and so on do you want to come in the box if switch are playing chelsea or manchester city or after wherever it is and it's a lot easier to do that um compared to if you are playing hull or swansea city on a tuesday 90s yeah it's that's that's just the economics of football um so it it does make a a huge difference i mean the last time ips which were promoted their revenues went up by 120 million pounds and of course you then got a minimum of two years of parachute payments and the parachute payments rips which this year ago i said 48 49 million in the first season probably around about 36 37 million so you add those all those numbers together and this is where we get this figure of 200 million and if you have a good season and you haven't been hat doffed to Sunderland by the way you know that what they've done is magnificent for every position in the Premier League that you are one position higher you get an extra three million pounds in prize money so let's be honest lots of people thought Sunderland they were promoted via the playoffs that tends to be the position which you most commonly associate with immediate relegation.

8:42They would have budgeted to have finished 20th. They finished 9th, 11 places higher, 11 times£3 million. That's an extra£30 million into the bank immediately. And then, of course, they've got the benefits of European participation next season. What you'd love for a season like that, hey? That would be fantastic for a British town. I think we'll take survival. But that, wow, is a brilliant story. let's address the elephant in the room then and the one that I know you've been talking a lot about let's talk about SCR squad cost ratio replacing PSR taking Ipswich out of it can you explain to people who probably won't understand the football finance side of things what does this change mean and I'll start off by saying this is good for Ipswich Town Football Club by the way under the old rules which were called profitability and sustainability rules.

9:41This was always a bit bizarre because they had nothing to do with profitability or sustainability, but it sounds good. It's been one of these decisions which will have been made with a PowerPoint presentation with somebody wearing braces and horn-rimmed spectacles trying to impress a bunch of executives. That sounds good, doesn't it? Under the old rules, premier league clubs who had been in the premier league for a few years they were allowed to lose 105 million pounds over three years now that 105 million pounds excluded money on infrastructure it excludes money on the academy exclude money on the magnificent community schemes and it included excluded the money if you set up a women's team because women's team embryonic startup business they tend to lose money.

10:29So those costs were ring fenced. And it was£105 million, but it wasn't, it was£35 million for every year that you'd been in the Premier League for over a three-year period, and£13 million for every year that you had been in the Championship. So when Ipswich were promoted two years ago, they could lose 35 million for their first season in the Premier League, 13 million and 30. So they could lose 61, whereas the rest of the Premier League could lose 105. So Ipswich Town were at a disadvantage. And if you recall, Nottingham Forest were given a points deduction, and yet they lost less money than some of the clubs that didn't get a points deduction because Nottingham Forest had just been promoted.

11:23So the argument was, and rightly in my opinion, that surely we should be giving clubs that have just been promoted, who've not been in the Premier League, we should give them a step up. But here we're making life more difficult for them. So those were the old rules. Under the new rules, and this is why I think this is good for Ipswich Town Football Club, what you do is you say, We're going to take for every£100 that we generate from ticket sales, from the broadcast deal and from our commercial rights. You can spend£85 of that on player costs with no penalties whatsoever. So those player costs will include player wages.

12:10So lots of people look at the wage bill that you see in the accounts, but that wage bill includes everybody. so you have to be a little bit cautious now i'm i'm a teacher i'm a bit of a nerd on sort of the work that i've sort of done and read from other people you normally you'd say probably three quarters of your wage bill goes on players and the rest goes on running the club so you take your player wages you then take the cost of the transfers to the club and here they use something called amortization so let's say that it's which they sign a new striker for 30 million pounds next season they put him on a five-year contract you say well 30 divided by five that's costing me six million pounds a year so how much is the transfer cost per year per player you add all of that up you add on the agent's fees you say right we can spend 85 percent of the revenue on those player costs, but that comes with no penalties, you can then top that up.

13:16If you want to say, well, we'd like to spend a bit more on players, you can go to 115 % and you end up paying a sort of a tax, a fine on that. So that's the rule. And the reason why I say that's beneficial to Ipswich Town is that when this was voted through by the Premier League a few months ago, six clubs voted against it. And if you take a look at those six clubs, it was started off with the teacher's pets of the Premier, the teacher's pets, Bournemouth, Brighton, Brentford, Palace. Okay, yeah, they're the well-run clubs of the Premier League. That's how you patronise and pat them on the head oh god that's a really well run club isn't it yeah yeah yeah talk to a football fan who wants to be known as supporting a well-run club it's it's sort of it is it's not nice to be on the receiving end of that and then fulham voted for that as well as did leeds united um one of those six clubs gone in common those six clubs their prime aim at the start of every season is to avoid relegation liverpool they don't think about that they don't worry about relegation yeah magic united don't worry about right yeah even if they have a bad season we so we normally say the top six spurs have been putting this to the test has to be said you know spurs have really been putting that model to the test uh over the last you know 12 24 months but even so they've not been relegated um and previously the teachers pet clubs they had that advantage they could lose 105 million pounds the clubs which have just been promoted can only lose 61 and therefore you've got a bit you've got a bigger and a better budget which means that Brighton Palace Brentford and so on that reduces their chances of relegation because it increases the chances of relegation for the clubs that have just been coming that has now disappeared under the switch to the squad cost ratio um and that's why i think it's beneficial for ipswich it's beneficial for hull you know i've seen the hull owners have been very vocal on spending money um and it's the same for cov uh so so so that's that's where we are uh then i think you there's a danger of falling into the trap of saying, well, let's work out what's the maximum amount of money we can spend.

15:46And I'm always saying that quality is better than quantity. And again, if we take a look at Ipswich's accounts, the last season that they were in the Premier League, 24-25, they had a proper go at it. They spent£113 million signing players. 100 million pounds doesn't get you very far these days it's a good night out i'm not denying that now i went here when i got that bill 130 million pounds yeah it's probably a good night out can't remember much of it but it's still yeah it must have been a good one um so people start quoting numbers what's the maximum amount we can pay and i always say yeah there's it's just as important to sign an experienced player on a Bosman who's leaving perhaps a club who's got lots of experience in the Premier League, as it is for signing a£25,£30 million striker or winger.

16:44The players that get the fans excited. I always say, I know nothing about football. I know a wee bit about finance. But for me, the smartest signing last summer was Sunderland signing Granit Xhaka. because he played in the Premier League. He's got good game management. He's a natural leader. If you are one up or if you are drawing one, one away from home, he's exactly the type of player because he actually isn't running the game with his feet. He's running his game with his arms and he's running his game with his head. And fair play. I'm not here to say great things about Sunderland, But I think that was smart.

17:29So whilst it might not get the pulse racing, it's being able to bring through players. And those players tend to be on good wages rather than big transfer fees. So that's where we are. So that's why I think that Ipswich will be probably pleased that they are moving into this new environment next season. This might be stating the obvious, Kieran, but when Ipswich got promoted last time round, it was back-to-back promotions. And I know there was a lot that was said about kind of being quite hamstrung by that. I know that part of it, of course, was taking League One players and doing a double jump.

18:10But from a financial perspective, that was also really difficult to do that because of the limitations put on them from only having one championship season. So would it have been the case that if they had those SCR rules when they did do that double promotion, they would have had kind of a lot more freedom and they would have had a more level playing surface. Yes. Yeah, I think they would have been in a stronger position. I think all promoted clubs are in a stronger position as a result of the change of these rules. And that's why you can see that those clubs that fear relegation, they don't think it's going to happen to them, but they think that you do an assessment of the business at the start and the end of each season.

18:53they will have looked at the three clubs being promoted. They will have already done their research on those clubs because those are the big matches. Taking four or six points of the clubs that have just been promoted is the aim of those clubs who've established themselves as this weird middle class that we now have in the Premier League. What do you think then that coming into the summer and into next season, and what do you think that would be more level playing field then? So what would you expect that the finances will look like in the Premier League with Ipswich Town and with those SCR rules?

19:30Obviously, I mean, it is going to be a more level playing field, isn't it? Now with Hull having those same benefits, with Coventry having those same benefits, of course, maybe some slight differences with the fact that the Ipswich are coming back up at the first time of asking. How do you see that picture now with Ipswich back in the Premier League? it will be beneficial for the clubs promoted but I think if you're realistic you're probably looking to sign four or five players who you would hope to be of Premier League quality the advantage that Ipswich have got compared to two seasons ago when you say they had those back-to-back promotions with they they had some yeah they bought extremely well um in both league one and the championship uh but they they had to spend a lot of money to to you know to boost the quality of the overall squad um i think you can be more targeted this season um because you do have players now who have uh the different experience playing saturday tuesday saturday tuesday football which which you do in in the championship on an awful lot of occasions is completely different to the environment in which you are playing a match at a weekend you then go and do light training on monday and you spend the rest of the week with your drills with your analysis teams with your this is how we're going to defend set pieces this is how we're going to attack at set pieces you've got so much more preparation time in the premier league and therefore you do need a different type of football player.

21:15Now, Ipswich, because they had that one experience of the Premier League, they've got some of those players. So they don't need to think, well, we need 15 or 16 players of Premier League quality. You can't do that in your very first season in the Premier League. You've got some of the hangover from the last season. there's still an issue in terms of wages so if i'm i'm looking here at the the wage bills for the clubs in the premier league um ipswich town's wage bill in 24 25 was 77 million pounds that was the lowest in the premier league that season not only it was the lowest it was the lowest by 40 million quid so you've got southampton 116 117 brentford who brentford brentford pay the lowest wages in the premier league for established clubs theirs was 131 so that's what yeah that's 54 million pounds more uh yeah 50 more four million pounds you split that between a squad of 25 players yeah that's so the average players are on considerably more but based on on my figures here and these i don't see individual pay packets i use a little formula and some clubs have been in contact and say yeah you're not that far away uh but you know and i'm not interested in individual players wages it's none of my business just like none of my business what your wages at Alex and it's the same with mine and so on you know but Ipswich were paying on average based on my calculations about 32 33 000 pounds a week um in the Premier League Brentford were paying 55 yeah that that is so if you've got a choice of Brentford or Ipswich in which place to go to no disrespect Ipswich fantastic place to live you know I've been there as an away fan And always an absolute, it's one of the things I always ring fence, you know, when I'm in those fixtures come out, as they will in a couple of weeks, I immediately start negotiations with Mrs.

23:31M as to which away games she's going to try to red card me for. Because I live in Sussex, but I work in Liverpool, so we don't see a lot of each other Monday to Friday. And if I go, yeah, yeah, I'm going to sun land away this weekend, you know, it doesn't necessarily go down too well. But I always try to – but I love going to. I love going to Ipswich. That's a big difference in terms of wages, and that's going to turn players' heads. It's a short career and so on and so forth. Again, if I'm comparing Ipswich here to the clubs that were relegated, I've already mentioned Southampton. Leicester were relegated with players on£65 ,000 a week.

24:19So that's the gulf. So I think a lot of the focus is on your player costs from a transfer fee point of view, because we sort of live in that reflected glory. My football team has just broken its transfer record. It's the first time we've spent 25, 30, 40 million pounds, whatever it is going to be. And as fans, we sort of do live in that sort of reflection of the activities of our football club in terms of our own sort of self-esteem and self-awareness and self-worth and so on. But for me, it's a case of combining wages and transfer fees to get a broader analysis. Certainly a side I hadn't really thought of when you speak about that and combining them and looking at the wage packet and the difference as well that you mentioned, especially that Brentford one, really a stark difference there.

25:15it's a difficult comparison to make where I remember two years ago we were sat here and I asked you about what you would expect from Ipswich's approach in the transfer market and you laid out a few different ones, you had the Luton Town one of kind of banking the money and hoping for the best, you had the Forest one of going extreme and putting all the money to it and then you had kind of the middle ground of trying to do quite clever recruitment and be as you say the typical well run clubs the Brightons, the Palaces what is often the benchmark for, I think, a lot of promoted teams. Based on what we saw, which was quite a lot of spending, but quite a lot of championship recruitment that came through, I suppose, from that last transfer window that they had in the Premier League, what would you expect then this summer from Ipswich Town?

26:03Very difficult to say. A decision, of course, for Mark Ashton and co, but sat here now, June 2nd, just gone half past nine. But what would you say would be the most likely approach for Ipswich in this transfer market based off what we've seen from the last one in the Premier League? Well, they now have experience of what it's like to play Premier League football. And you've seen it. And I'm not trying to be snobby here about the Premier League. It's a bit like comparing chess to drafts. It is so much more tactical and so much more technical than the championship. I think in terms of recruitment, the parameters that Ipswich Town will be using for their recruitment will reflect that.

26:52We've seen what works. You now know from the last experience of being in the Premier League, some players adapted to it in a better manner than others. let's take a look at the characteristics of those players and let's try to replicate that as part of our our recruitment now I can assure you Mark Ashton and his team will be getting hundreds of emails from agents they'll be getting it from the the the algorithm companies there are these these organizations which do research into players in in terms of characteristics and so on and what they've got to be able to do is to filter through. They will have identified the players that they want to sign from around about February and they would have started to put feelers out here.

27:48If the club is promoted, would your client be interested? Some agents will be very positive about that because they won't have heard from other Premier League. there'll be some agents who will be um trying to play the game you know you know trying they'll be touting around their place and i'm not accusing it switch town or any other club by the way of tapping up it happens okay yeah let's let's be realistic i think there's uh and also it's just making you know why why send a scout to watch a player on half a dozen of occasions if the player is perfectly happy in portugal or belgium or in another club and has got no intention you know for it could be for family reasons it could be players like living there um so so you do a bit of research and the first thing that tends to happen you just make a just make a a chat uh is is there you know how is your client and so on and this this this is part of the game it's not tapping up it's it's just doing the G research I I've bizarrely been headhunted in my career um and the first one was you happy where you are at present yeah it's all right yeah or I really love it yeah I'm staying for the rest of my days and on the basis of that response then then the remainder of the conversation takes place um so Kieran McKenna knows what he's looking for in terms of Premier League standard players having had that experience and I think that will form part of the recruitment strategy and the one thing I always say to fans is yes we want flair I understand it.

29:45You want swashbuckling, attacking football. Actually, what you want is 17th positional. You finish 17th next season, that will reflect an absolutely brilliant season for Pipswich Town. And if we go back to where we've been talking about Brentford and the other clubs, this was very much the strategy that Brentford employed when they got to the Premier League. And I've got Brentford's wage bill for each of the years. That first season, they paid wages of 30 grand a week. And they said to players, you're getting a pay increase from the previous season. They didn't recruit that many players themselves.

30:27They backed themselves. Second season in the Premier League, their wage bill went from 30 grand a week to 45 grand a week. Why is that? It's because at the end of that first season, and this is where I think, This is where Mark Ashton and Kieran McKenna, they can sell it to which town. They can say, this is what we're going to pay you. Huge bonus if we stay up. So that will increase. So Brentford went 30 grand a week, 45 grand a week, because they'd had players and their representatives knocking on the door at the end of the first season. Okay, I've done one season in the Premier League. I've now proven myself as a Premier League.

31:06I accept that I was a punt as a Premier League player in season number one. I have now proven myself to be at this standard, increase my wages. So Brentford went from 30 to 45 to 50 to 55. That's how they're. And it's that incremental growth that is a way of establishing yourself in the division. it also means that you're not putting the club's long-term sustainability at risk by spending an absolute fortune and then you've got players who have proven themselves not to be good enough for the Premier League but they're on 50 grand a week you've just been relegated to the championship no Premier League clubs want to sign them because last season he stank the place out doesn't want to go abroad because the premier league pay wages far higher than any other european division with the exclusion of the elite clubs yeah yeah so we know that juventus and real madrid and psg we know that they will pay big wages but if you take a look at sort of the the 17th highest team in spain compared to the 17th highest team in the premier league there is no comparison in terms of squad costs and wage bills and so the Premier League can afford to outbid everybody apart from the other clubs in the top 20 and if you take a look at the the Deloitte annual money league I think we've now got 14 clubs out of the top 20 so 14 clubs out of the top 30 and 11 out of the top 20 richest clubs in the world come from the Premier League itself which is also of course reflected in the dominance of the premier league yet why is it that the prem why is it premier league clubs are winning the european europa conference and the europa league and if you now take a look at those two competitions the last 21 knockout games between english i.e premier league teams and european have all been won by premier league teams so again that those Those two competitions reflect the middle class of European football, the middle class of the Premier League, and even the poor relations of the Premier League are still far, far bigger than their counterparts in the rest of Europe.

33:28So that's, I think, is another consideration. You can get an awful lot of bang for your buck by recruiting from Europe. There are complications. You now have to get an approval. It's called a governing body endorsement. as this is a consequence of the changes in labour laws as a result of Brexit and so on. But if the player is half decent, I don't think that would be too much of a problem. Go back to that point then. I think that's an important one to touch on. You said that they're an awful little bang for your buck, recruiting from Europe. The last time that Ipswich were, well, pretty much Ipswich's recent history, the foreign recruitment networks haven't been there for the club.

34:11It's been very much a case of the domestic ones have been very strong. That's why the championship recruitment was so big in the last season when they were in the Premier League. But then recruiting from Europe, there was only a very small amount that has come through and it's increased. What we've now seen is new scouts have come in. We've got head scouts that have come in, different markets, South America, different places in Europe. And there's going to be a big focus, I think. And I think what you'll see will be a switch from Ipswich this summer to look at more foreign recruitment. And I know that if you look through it, you mentioned Sunderland as a great example.

34:44Almost all of their business comes from outside of England, comes from Europe. The same with Leeds, who stayed up a good example. How important is that going to be? Obviously, a very different season again, where Ipswich had used Jamestown Analytics, a group that you know very well from previous years. They can't do that in the Premier League. It feels like they're trying to set up that network on their own with new people coming in, looking at that foreign recruitment, just how important is that going to be for Ipswich Town? It's absolutely essential because you get more value for money. I love the championship as a product, but it is a different style of football.

35:27It's a different style of players. It's a different type of mentality in that division. And having a blend of players who have got experience of English football and players who've got experience of football, which is more tactical and technical than the championship, I think is absolutely essential. And it has to be remembered in 2023, Ipswich were playing in League One, but they didn't need a South American scout. They didn't need a Bosnian scout. They didn't need a scouting career because that wasn't the pond that they were fishing in. So it's absolutely understandable as to why the club took the approach that it chose to do.

36:10So when it got to the Premier League last time and then it was hamstrung by the one club per division ethos. of Jamestown. And I think persuading Jamestown to break the links with their existing club was going to be fairly difficult. So that meant that they had to do a bit of a catch-up and ultimately it came short. My last question to you then, Kieran, looking ahead to next season, from a financial perspective, with these new rules coming in, just how big would survival be? and with that, how damaging could relegation be? I don't think relegation is damaging because there's a case for saying, and it sounds cliche, we go again.

37:01We have experience. At the same time, you don't want to be known as a yo-yo club. Nobody likes that. And it's when you stop yo-yoing that you realise, actually, being a yo-yo club, I'd rather take that. I think there's a club not too far away from Ipswich, which was known as a yo-yo club, and then that stopped being so. I can't remember what they're called. And you lose impetus. The same with West Brom and so on. Burnley are the most high profile of those clubs. But it gets tougher and tougher each time. So there's no downside of being relegated because you've been in the Premier League in the first case.

37:47But finishing 17th, the reason why it's so critical is that that will allow you, let's say that Ipswich sign five players of Premier League quality during this window as part of their recruitment drive. They've got those five players. They can then add five more. So now you've got 10 plus some of the players that have proven themselves in that transition from the Premier League to, from the Championship to the Premier League that have been in the Premier League in season 24, and you're looking at a squad of now 14 or 15 players who are used to the different dynamics, the different pressures of being in the Premier League.

38:26If you get relegated, you lose your best players. That's business, that's economics. The players want to prove themselves once again at the highest level. The fees that you get offered are decent. You've got, even with parachute payments, You've got legacy issues in terms of wage bills and so on. So it's the logical thing to do. And it is frustrating. And there is that fear. What happens if we do a Leicester or a Luton? And it's happened to Wolves. It's happened to some leads. It's happened more times than people are aware of that something's not quite right at the club. Sometimes the manager might go and there's a bit of turmoil and things can unravel.

39:14Brilliant. Kieran Maguire, football finance expert. Thank you for joining me to talk through all of these things, heading into Ipswich Town's return to the Premier League. We love having you on every year to talk through things because so much changes. I didn't really think it would, but every single year things seem to change. So thank you for coming on. Thank you to everyone who's listened. plenty more to come over the summer we'll see you next time

40:09Thank you.

40:38Thank you.