

28 Oct 2026 · 46m · 19 chapters

This episode of Laura Coates Live Countdown to Election Night focuses on the final week of major U.S. elections, especially Texas’ Senate race between Ken Paxton and James Talarico, plus broader themes of election integrity and Trump’s campaign strategy. Key topic: Republicans are splitting—former Texas Supreme Court chief justice Tom Phillips and others say they’ll vote for Talarico over Paxton, citing Paxton’s “longstanding reputation” as an embarrassment. Notable examples include Crystal Mason, featured in a Talarico ad about voter-suppression fears; she was sentenced to five years for filing a provisional ballot in 2016 amid Paxton’s crackdown. Panel also discusses DOJ election monitors (David Becker says they’re “fly on the wall”) and Trump’s rhetoric about fraud potentially intimidating voters.
Pete Seat (former George W. Bush spokesperson), Karen Finney (CNN political commentator), Joe Crowley (former NY congressman), Brian Lanza (Trump campaign senior advisor), David Becker (election-research executive director), Harry Enten (CNN data analyst), and Johnny Garcia (Democratic candidate for Texas’ 35th district).
Written by AI. May contain mistakes.
Discussion about the imminent Texas Senate race between Paxton and Tallarico.
“Let's talk about tonight in Texas, because we saw something from the president that we don't actually normally see.”
Exploring the growing Republican discontent with Ken Paxton's candidacy.
“And not just Texas, but control of Congress.”
Analysis of Trump's campaigning tactics in Texas and its implications.
“Phillips says that he will vote for Tallarico.”
Introduction of the discussion panel and their initial thoughts on Texas politics.
“Maybe I should do that with Ken Paxton, but I'm not sure your body is going to qualify.”
Discussing the significance of ground games and mobilizing voters in Texas.
“one of those three have the ability to go towards the Democratic side.”
Examining Tallarico's ad targeting voter suppression and its potential effect.
“And some Democrat leaders in Texas are actually sounding the alarm about Tallarico because he's got a$25 million pledge to mobilize black voters.”
Discussion on Trump's remarks about Michigan Senate candidate Abdul al-Sayed.
“Her story resonated with a lot of people because the idea of provisional ballots and because of she became really a boogeyman poster child they were using continuously.”
Analyzing the impact of voter dynamics and Trump's influence on elections.
“He said, why does he keep calling me Mohammed.”
Discussion on endorsements and potential election fraud claims by Trump.
“So they can have those endorsements and he can still say, I'm not a DSA member.”
Analysis of election monitors and Trump's ongoing claims about election integrity.
“And you'll respect the results, whatever happens?”
Discussion on polling results and Trump's approval ratings among different voter demographics.
“Those have both been blocked by multiple courts, including the Supreme Court.”
Explore how Trump's approval rating affects his support among independents and non-MAGA Republicans.
“underwater with the non-MAGA parts of the Republican Party.”
Hear personal stories of former Trump supporters expressing regret and disillusionment.
“Well, now I know why that's not making the cut at the rallies.”
Discussing the implications of voter discontent and the Republican strategies moving forward.
“That's an anecdote, obviously, in a series of them.”
An overview of Texas's redistricting efforts and their potential political impact.
“The pendulum is just going to keep swinging back and forth and back and forth because we're not voting on policies.”
Johnny Garcia discusses his campaign, challenges, and the issues important to his constituents.
“New customer offer for initial plan term only.”
The panel addresses voter questions regarding political strategies and party messaging.
“It's your turn to drive the conversation.”
Discussing priorities in election spending versus national debt reduction.
“And I think that's the first way to start to address the Straits of Hormuz, get them opening again.”
Identifying overlooked races where Democrats or Republicans could surprise.
“Tom Cotton is in trouble in Arkansas and the Democratic candidate there, Haley, she is an incredible candidate.”

Get the gist, explore an idea or ask about something said.
On Laura Coates Live, what are the key points of this episode?
Automatic transcript. May contain errors.
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1:12Good evening, everyone, and welcome to a special edition of Laura Coates Live Countdown to Election Night. Yep, we've only got seven days to go, and tonight looks like it's all in on Texas, home to the most expensive Senate showdown in American history, Ken Paxton versus James Tallarico. And tonight, the president was back in the state for the third time this month. He was campaigning in Corpus Christi this afternoon before heading to Lubbock tonight to rally with Paxton. Just a couple of miles up the street while Tallarico is holding his own rally. In just a moment, my panel will join me to unpack what exactly is at stake in Texas and, of course, beyond.
1:53And we want all of you at home to join our coverage. Send me your questions and your comments at CNN.com slash EngagedPolitics. We'll answer them live on air this hour. Let's talk about tonight in Texas, because we saw something from the president that we don't actually normally see. Because he wasn't just talking about winning. He was actually contemplating losing. And not just Texas, but control of Congress. You cannot have a guy like Talafricco because it's not even questioned. We can't lose the votes. It's very close. And they can turn things down. I'll be vetoing like crazy. OK, but I'd rather work on the positive side as opposed to the negative side.
2:36Be toying like crazy implies something about who controls it, right? But while Trump is warning Texans about Tallarico, more top Republicans are warning them about Paxton. The latest, a former chief justice of the Texas Supreme Court, Republican Tom Phillips, writes, Paxton's longstanding reputation will embarrass Texas in ways our state simply cannot afford. Phillips says that he will vote for Tallarico. You know, he joins a growing list of Texans that includes George W. Bush's brother and even a former top aide to Paxton himself. Oh, and speaking of embarrassing, you know how the president has been raving about Ohio Senator John Huston's backside?
3:22Well, tonight Ken Paxton became the butt of the joke. But I made the mistake of studying his anatomy and explaining it to the audience. And the audience loved it. By the way, he went up 12 points that day. He went from being down to being up.
3:47Maybe I should do that with Ken Paxton, but I'm not sure your body is going to qualify. Let's meet my panel tonight. Former White House spokesperson of the George W. Bush administration, Pete Seat. CNN political commentator, Karen Finney. Former Democratic congressman from New York, Joe Crowley. And former senior advisor to Trump advanced campaign, Brian Lanza. Can I start with you, Brian? Please. You seem thrilled to have me start with you, by the way. What will I ask Ryan Lanza? What will I ask him? Will it be something that is, no, I will not. But the idea, I mean, first of all, I don't know why he's still focusing.
4:26I know he wants to get a laugh about this. But the idea, this is his third visit to Texas in the last, what, like a month or so. We know how important it is to him. Is this a sign, knowing that Republicans are breaking with Republicans and Paxson, that he thinks it's vulnerable? Yeah. I mean, listen, he's also going to be going to South Carolina. So he's going all over red states to help gin up the base. He's gone to Texas. I suspect he'll go back. I mean, Texas is a huge concern. He'll go back again a fourth time? I mean, it's a huge concern to us. I mean, they're investing a lot of resources.
4:57For him to go back? Well, no, not for him to go back, the state itself. And so it's a priority to President Trump. I think where they see it is it's one of those third tier seats, whether it's Iowa, whether it's Kansas or Texas, one of those three have the ability to go towards the Democratic side. So they're very focused on it and they're spending the money at record paces. So we could have avoided all this with President Trump endorsing Cornyn several months ago, but we decided to make it interesting. I love that you said we. That was very graceful of you. I mean, Karen, the idea that this has been the focus.
5:26And again, I get everyone's focusing on his anatomical focus of things. But to me, it's such a it's an irony for a number of reasons, but also because there are a number of things one would think if they're that worried about losing Texas, they would focus on that would maybe highlight the assets of what the Republicans have done. Oh, I see that instead of the assets, perhaps of certain people's husbands. I don't know. Candidates. Yeah, I feel you on that one. Apparently not. Apparently he's enthralled with the looks of some of these men he's shared the stage with. Look, when you don't have much else to talk about, I guess that's what you do.
6:05I mean, it's not like he can talk about a record. I mean, the things that he was saying, he has said is, hey, if you vote for us, then we'll solve your problems. But I'm only going to do it if my person wins. That's when I'm going to bail out farmers or that's when I'm going to. Right. I mean, that's when people will get money. Right. I mean, only if my person wins. I'm not going to do my actual job unless you do what I say, which is not how democracy works. But in all seriousness, look, I understand why they need they feel like they need to try to give him something to do and have him out there in these red areas.
6:41I'm not sure it's actually helping. I've seen numbers that suggest once he's there, it actually does not necessarily help their candidate. But I will say it's mobilizing to our base, too. And it is also mobilizing in the arguments that we are trying to make to those voters who are on the fence to say the person, if you vote for this Republican, they're going to be a rubber stamp for that guy. Let's talk about the ground game and the money that's being spent. I mentioned it's the most expensive Senate race we know now. And some Democrat leaders in Texas are actually sounding the alarm about Tallarico because he's got a$25 million pledge to mobilize black voters.
7:18But state rep Jolanda Jones warns that she doesn't see the spending reflected on the ground. I mean, so how does that impact, you think, Tallarico's options and the last seven days for these voters? Well, I have to think that with all the focus that's been on Texas, that that ground game is going to be pretty good. The GOTV is going to be there. It's surprising that it's not been reflective so far, but I have to think. But what does that mean, though, for people to break that down in a layman's term? How does that reflect? You mean in polling or otherwise? No, this is about getting people to the polls.
7:49It's about getting people to make sure there are people covering the polls, handing out literature, that they're knocking on doors, making sure when they find out who has voted, who hasn't voted yet, they can go and literally knock on those doors and get those folks out to vote. But that takes resources. In some states it takes volunteers, but in others it takes money. I have the feeling in Texas it's going to be a combination of both. You know, there has been this last minute appeal to help Tallarica with black voters, which, of course, frankly, anyone running in Texas has to be aware that they have to get and galvanize the votes of so many people across the entire state.
8:23But that's one focus for him. And he released an ad that targets voter suppression fears. And the ad features Crystal Mason, who is a Texas woman, you might recall, everyone, who faced a decade-long battle and a five-year prison sentence for filing a provisional ballot in 2016. Watch. In 2016, I cast a provisional ballot. I didn't do anything wrong, and the ballot never counted. Crystal was sentenced to five years in prison because of Ken Paxton's crackdown on voters of color, putting politics before people. For almost 10 years, I lived in fear of losing my freedom. But Crystal didn't back down.
9:02And you shouldn't either. You know, I had a chance to interview her before and after, not during this ad. Her story resonated with a lot of people because the idea of provisional ballots and because of she became really a boogeyman poster child they were using continuously. Does that sort of add, though, will that be impactful and persuasive to voters who might be looking at Paxton and thinking, I know his history, I'm not a fan, but can I really vote for a Democrat? Well, to the congressman's point, it's all about getting the base to show up and vote. And so as long as they're targeting it very specifically to the folks who they believe, either through focus groups or polling, will find that to be a resonant message, then yeah, it could very well work.
9:48It's the same reason why President Trump has gone there now three times. It's to target those low propensity Trump only voters in Texas to make up the difference. You pointed out that graphic with Republicans who are saying that they're voting for Tallarico. There are probably some Republicans who will just leave that blank on the ballot and there will be a large undervote because they don't like Ken Paxton. A lot of reasons not to like Ken Paxton. And they can't stomach the idea of voting for a Democrat in James Tallarico. so they'll leave it blank. So Trump has to come in and make up the difference by getting those low propensity voters out.
10:25Well, let's talk about whether voters can stomach some of the attacks that President Trump has made, even in Texas tonight, about Michigan Senate candidate Abdul al-Sayed. For example, this. You know who else is really arrogant? The guy from Michigan. I've been watching him. We're not going to let him be in the United States Senate. He's a disaster. Hopefully he's going to lose. I'd always call him Mohammed. He said, why does he keep calling me Mohammed. I said, you know what? Because I'm president of the United States. I can call you whatever the hell I want. I mean, why is this in his mind appealing to voters in Michigan more broadly or Republicans who are on the ticket?
11:03He says, pretend I'm on the ballot. But for those who are actually on the ballot, you're a strategist. Are you cringing at the impact of those statements? Listen, I think Michigan is different, right? I think you look at the dynamic that's playing in Michigan, you look at the dynamic that's playing within the Democratic Party and sort of the rise of anti-Semitism that's taking place, you have Saeed, who is the best example of the rise of anti-Semitism in the Democratic Party. You think El Saeed is the best example of anti-Semitism in the United States? He's the clearest example you can see right now.
11:34He's not anti-Semitic. By the way, it looks like it's very possible Netanyahu is going to be voted out. He's certainly having a run for his money. 60 % of American Jews do not have faith in Bibi Netanyahu. So when we talk about Israel and we talk about the actions of the Netanyahu government, there are a lot of us in this country who do not like what he's been doing, who are willing to speak out against it. And for many of us, that is what we hear. I think that is being weaponized. And certainly, look, we know this playbook. Barack Obama did a great job talking about it over the weekend. Use all three names.
12:10Say it over and over again. Call him a terrorist. Talk about the Muslim Brotherhood, which, by the way, Mike Rogers is the one who in 2012 voted to send money to the then leader of Egypt, who was a member of the Muslim Brotherhood because we knew we had to establish diplomatic relations with that government. But we know this playbook very well, and that's why he goes back to it. Are you a member of Barack Hussein Obama? I am Barack Hussein Obama. You may be familiar with him. The president has made a pension out of this, and it's been effective from time to time, Pocahontas and other things as well.
12:39But I do take some umbrage as well in terms of calling El-Sayed anti-Semitic. I may not agree with him on every issue, but he's not anti-Semitic. Well, let the voters decide that. Well, look, and let him be able to communicate himself as positioning. You can disagree with the steps of Netanyahu and not be anti-Semitic. You can disagree with what steps Israel, the state it takes, and still not be anti-Semitic. 100%. And I think that's where we have to draw the line. But it's interesting, man, we're going to talk more about this. But even if you believe that he is anti-Semitic, which you have evidence to show that he is not, is the right call to then replace that with Islamophobia?
13:18Listen, I think the way the president has always sort of taken the Islam and the Muslim is he's never had a problem bringing it to the forefront. He sees the candidate admission as a direct threat to our democracy because of what he views as socialist Muslim views. And he thinks that's contrary to America. He's not a socialist. He's actually said he's a capitalist. Guys, guys, I'm sorry. I lost to a socialist. I lost to a democratic socialist. And I can draw the distinction between someone who's - He's not even a member of the democratic socialist party. He's not. And someone who's endorsed by AOC and endorsed by Bernie Sanders and says they're not a socialist.
13:55They're a part of the democratic coalition. And they would like to see a democratic senate and they would like to see a democratic controlled house of representatives. So they can have those endorsements and he can still say, I'm not a DSA member. I'm not a socialist. He said, I am a capitalist as I am a Democratic capitalist of America. We have more to talk about. The conversation will not end here, obviously. Stand by, though, because up next is the president preparing to deny the results of the election, how he rattled nerves today and why there's one race in particular where he seems prepared to claim fraud.
14:27Plus, fresh signs that Trump's GOP support may not be what he thinks it is. Harry Anton's going to join us tonight to explain.
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15:44And you'll respect the results, whatever happens? I will, if they're honest elections, yeah. So, what is an honest election? Is it all in the eye of the beholder? In this case, that beholder seems to be President Trump. And he says he will accept the results, but Trump keeps sowing doubt about the results even before they come in. First, it was Alaska preemptively suing the state over the inclusion of Dan J. Sullivan on the ballot. Now it's Minnesota, where Trump says Republican Senate candidate Michelle Tafoya will only lose if Peggy Flanagan and Democrats, quote, cheat by playing games with the ballots as they come in.
16:21And now the DOJ says it will send more than a thousand election monitors to all 50 states. It's the largest mobilization of election monitors ever. Now, while they won't interfere with voting, they will observe polling places for any federal voting law violations if they can get inside. Elections expert David Becker joins us now. He's the founder and executive director of the Nonpartisan Center for Election Innovation and Research and also an alum like myself of the voting section of the Civil Rights Division. So I want to start with you, David, on this. This idea, this contingency, that you'll accept the results if, you know, if, whatever follows, if.
16:59But I want to go back for a second. Talk to me about the significance of these election monitors because there are certain parameters for them even to be present, to let it get inside. You don't share the concerns that some people have about their presence. No, I don't have a lot of concerns about this. You and I know how this works very, very well. I've probably been in hundreds, if not thousands, of polling places as a DOJ monitor. And what you are is basically a fly on the wall. You're observing. You're not interfering. You're not talking to voters. You're not interfering with the process or the election workers.
17:27You are subject to the state laws in the states in which you're observing. And that's really, really important. They can treat you as anyone else who might be trying to come in. You might not be able to go beyond the perimeter where people can campaign. You might not be able to talk to voters. Those are all subject to state law. I'm not particularly concerned about this. Even the number of people? Even the number. It's the largest ever deployment. But this is 1 ,000 monitors. We're going to have about 100 ,000 polling places on Election Day. Voters are not going to see these people. We've seen them do this in the 2025 election cycle and in the primaries, and there have been virtually no incidents.
18:03There's one minor incident in Wyoming that was handled exceptionally well by the county election officials and by the governor, both Republicans in that state. I think we're going to see this be a nothing for most people. They're not going to see these monitors. To be perfectly honest, again, you and I know this, sitting in a polling place all day can be kind of boring sometimes. I think what I've heard from talking to election officials is they often see these people show up for about a couple hours and they go because there's nothing to see there. You know, I do wonder, though, because this is a different DOJ perhaps than what you and I have been accustomed to and what that will look like.
18:38But it's also the idea of the president's comments. I want to talk about this because he says he will accept them if they are honest. And you have Democrat Senator Tina Smith warning, quote, Minnesota will not take kindly to thinly veiled threats from a guy we've rejected three times. He says soon to be four. I mean, this is this is a close race. Do you think it could turn off voters? The idea that Trump is even making this insinuation that there might be an issue? You know, this reminds me of a column that I wrote back in 2020. And the headline was, can anyone win if no one can lose? Because both Republicans and Democrats in that campaign cycle were effectively making the same argument, which is there's no way we can lose to this guy.
19:22There's no way we can lose to a, quote unquote, racist, sexist Trump. There's no way we can lose to this old man Biden. And they were setting up their respective political parties to question the legitimacy of the election. And unfortunately, that happens when you tend to be on the losing side. You either for Republicans, the election was rigged for Democrats when they lose. There was disenfranchisement, you know, not enough polling places, not enough hours. We could have elections for 24, 7, 365 days where they come to your house and let you vote. Some Democrats would still complain that there's not enough time to vote.
19:58Well, this is a little different, though, in some respects, right, because you've got to comment on to anyone because you do have the president. who continuously not just plant seeds, but is watering them of the idea that there is election fraud or that there's misconduct and that there's you can only trust it if it happens. I mean, I know your point is the complaints will come for those who lose. But qualitatively, it does feel different when the president says his statements. Well, I want to say it's privileged for you to be able to sit there and say that there are black and brown voters in this country for whom that is not the experience.
20:27I'm thinking about, you know, we were just talking about the woman in Texas who was prosecuted. How about the gentleman CNN covered this man? He waited in line for six hours. I don't know if you remember that scene of him in this baking sun. He voted. Turns out he wasn't supposed to vote. He didn't know that. And they arrested him. So there are plenty of people for whom this will have a potentially a suppressive impact. And I think we have to consider it not just in its as its own thing. It's that. But it's oh, we're going after Jim Comey again. Oh, we're going after these ballots in California.
21:01Oh, we're going to, you know, all these different things are all ways to try to pressure test, I think, different parts of the system to see how Democrats will react. I'm proud to say, I think, I mean, I'm part of a coalition of organizations that are doing election protection, including, you know, governors, Republican and Democrats, secretaries of state, AGs who are trying to be very prepared. But I think the aftermath of January 6th is nothing is off the table. We are ready for anything to happen. It's this DOJ that is doubling or quadrupling the number of people who are going to be inspecting these poll sites.
21:38And I also think it shows an utter lack of appreciation or respect for poll workers. Folks who get there at 5 o 'clock, and I know a lot about this because I was a Democratic district leader, the lowest rung of the political ladder in New York City for many years. People have to get at 5 o 'clock in the morning. They spend their entire day there, do a civic duty, and they're worried about who's been looking over their shoulder or looking over them. There are Democrats and Republicans both at that table to look over each other. And that's how it's worked, and it's worked well throughout the centuries.
22:05And I think it will work. I agree with you. I don't think the intimidation factor would be that big. But who's sending them and what the message is? But how would he challenge, describe how would he challenge the results? So the reality is that he might attempt certain things, and he certainly attempted some things, this administration, over the last 21 months. But they failed every single time. He signed two executive orders. Those have both been blocked by multiple courts, including the Supreme Court. He sent his DOJ trying to seize sensitive voter data from the states. There are 27 courts that have ruled.
22:36The DOJ, sadly for us alums watching them, is 0 in 27 in those cases, including nine Trump-appointed judges who ruled against the most recent one in Utah just last week. He's investigated past elections, and he's found nothing. He tried to pass the Save America Act. His own party controls both houses of Congress, and he can't do it. He's now suing California about alleged non-citizens on the voter list. They had a hearing just today that did not go well for the DOJ, just like the Ninth Circuit hearing on Sunday went very poorly for the DOJ. He's suing Alaska preemptively on this certification issue.
23:10They're going to lose that based on what we're seeing. So he can try things, but he's failing every single time when we're seeing record high turnout. People just need to vote. Just get out and vote. Well, I've got a viewer question here. The question is, what is the DOJ not focusing on? What are they missing because they're spending so much time on going after what the president wants? That's a great question. Probably everything else. The DOJ is a huge entity. They have anything from national security to antitrust to environmental issues to things in civil rights. And all those things are pulling resources away from the matters that prosecutors and trial attorneys are supposed to be focusing on just to follow directives.
23:48I think it's an absolute shame. Stand by, everyone. Still ahead, Harry Enten now a fixture at Trump's rallies as the president cherry picks one of Harry's hits, ignores, I mean, just by everything else. Harry's going to join us and set the record straight. Plus, as Trump campaigns in the Lone Star State, some Republicans now wonder if the party made a Texas-sized mistake. When an intruder approaches a home, they expect a camera. What they don't expect. Stop. This is Simply Safe. Police are on the way. Using smart AI cameras, live U.S.-based agents help deter intruders in under 30 seconds. Don't just record a break-in, stop it from ever happening.
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24:51The polls are fake. A lot of the polls are rigged. The polls are fake. Fake news, fake polls. They're all fake. They're rigged polls. A lot of crooked polls. Well, the president says ignore the polls, but there's one poll in particular he can't get enough of. Highlighted by our friend Harry Enten, who's going to join me in just a moment. By our count, he's played one particular Harry clip more than 15 times in just the last three weeks. And if you haven't been watching his rallies from start to finish, this is what I'm talking about. Two charts that came from, in all fairness, I gave him credit, CNN.
25:26Compare that to his approval rating now at the MAGA GOP. It's 98%. That is, there's been no real decline in MAGA support. So that support is actually really holding up strong. It's really, really strong. The president Republicans most admire. It's Donald Trump. This is a historic comparison. A majority of Republicans say, 53 % say, he's the Republican president they most admire. Ronald Reagan, who traditionally has won that much, Donald Trump nearly triples up on this. Donald John Trump at 53 percent, easily crushing Abe Luthor at 8 percent. And Elon Musk showed that he was the greatest president as well.
26:02CNN's chief data analyst Harry Enten joins me now. I mean, you're almost as like prevalent as the YMCA song now. You've become an official part of the Trump stump speech. Are you surprised that he is latched onto it to this degree? I will admit when I made those segments and, you know, presented them to the public, I did not expect that there would be that type of infatuation from the president of the United States. Clearly, he likes what he saw in terms of those numbers. But in that way, I'm not really all that surprised. Right. I think you see this across the political. I at least I have I have seen it when there are segments that I've done that have been good for Democrats, you know, left wing blogs tend to take those and run with them.
26:47When I do segments that are better for Republicans, right wing blogs take to take tend to take those and run with them. I guess I will admit I'm a little surprised that the president of the United States has played it so much at rallies. But then again, you know what? It's 2026. There are a lot of things that surprise me. Well, you might be in the minority there because a lot of people are no longer shocked by a lot of things. And yet everything shocks me. Everything is probably par for the course. But you know what? We're three weeks away. Actually, at the time, the last three weeks, it's been 15 times he played it.
27:18Now we're one week away from the midterms. That tells a lot about why he might be looking at those numbers. But there's also a whole lot of hits from you that he's not playing. I mean, what are the numbers you're looking at that won't ever make it maybe to a MAGA rally? Yeah, I mean, look, President Trump plays the clips, you know, that are best for him in his base. But I think it's important to note, right, we've done many hits on Trump's struggles with the non-MAGA parts of the Republican Party. I mean, look, he won that vote handily back in 2024. And what we see now is not just that he's lost support among that group, you know, he won it by 56 points.
27:57It's that he's actually underwater, underwater with the non-MAGA parts of the Republican Party. And so that, to me, is a potentially truly devastating sign. But that's not all, right? You know, you could talk about Republicans, but at the end of the day, this election is going to be won and lost in the center of the electorate, Laura Coates. And among independents, Trump's numbers have just dropped off a cliff. I mean, look at this. In the average poll, he's 50 points underwater, approval minus disapproval, 50 points underwater. That is the worst for any president going into a midterm on record.
28:35It's actually worse than Richard Nixon's net approval rating was among independents just before he was forced to resign back in 1974. So, yes, it is true. Donald Trump is holding on strong to that MAGA Republican base. But the real problems are in all the other parts of the electorate where he's really fallen off a cliff, especially among non-MAGA Republicans and among independents. Well, now I know why that's not making the cut at the rallies. I'm shocked. I know. That did not give the glass half full perspective. My theory is he just likes you and likes your voice and likes your joie de vie.
29:11What do you think? Everybody loves Harry. I mean, you know what? If I'm the one thing that can bring together Americans in the left, center and right, I am willing to make that sacrifice. I am just one man. But if I'm the chosen one to be able to bring everyone together, rather than, you know what, I'll have to deal with that responsibility. Harry Neo Enton, thank you so much. See ya. I think that was the Heisman thing he was trying to do at the end. All right, well, the panel is back with me. Let's talk about this. Oh, is that what? I mean, I called him Neo. He had to do the Matrix thing. That's what that was supposed to be for, right?
29:47You said that? Neo from the Matrix. I've seen the Matrix. That was not the Matrix. That was a perfect rendition I just did. Thank you, Rayma. Can you do it? Oh, okay. I don't think what are you talking about? I didn't know what he's back. I was going to say, I'm oddly defensive about my Keanu Reeves impersonation just now. Let's move on and talk about this because we're getting plenty of anecdotes that are showing that some Trump voters are absolutely fed up. Not with Harry Anton, of course, but more broadly. In the past three months, he's lost 85 % of my support. I did vote for Trump. Like, how do you feel about that vote now?
30:22I feel pretty stupid and ashamed. So how many times have you voted for Donald Trump? Twice. So two Donald Trump votes. I thought he would be a businessman. How do you feel about your vote now? Oh, disgusted. What was the thing that made you turn on Trump? Anything personal? Oh, yeah, he deported my fiancée. It hit close to home. Yeah, he's a piece of. I didn't think anybody could be that cruel. Yep. Yep. And that'll do it. That's an anecdote, obviously, in a series of them. But I mean, if you were trying to extrapolate that, Brian, I mean, how worried do Republicans be that there are people who were formerly so pro-Trump who now feel betrayed?
31:01Yeah, listen, I think they should be very worried. I think the number that matters more than anything else is 3.7. You know, 3.7 is what the inflation rate is. And the inflation rate has been a killer to Joe Biden. It's obviously having a tremendous impact on Trump. And I think some president's got to figure out how to bring the inflation rate to 2.3. That's more manageable. And until they can do that, everybody's going to be on the chopping blocks. So what do you do in terms of strategy if you know that this is the concerns? And obviously, the midterm elections are normally sort of a recall on whoever the party is the majority.
31:31But this adds something different because you've got a new poll showing that 44 percent of likely voters said that their vote will be a vote against Trump. That's likely voters. Yeah, that's the problem with politics, quite frankly. That's why candidates don't run on things. They run against things and against people. And it's why the country cannot come together. And right now, my fear is, however this shakes out, is that voters are voting on promises, not on policies. And they're going to set expectations in their mind. Let's say Democrats are successful in getting the House and the Senate. And they're going to have these expectations about what they're going to do on affordability, just like they did coming out of the 2024 election.
32:12How did that turn out? The pendulum is just going to keep swinging back and forth and back and forth because we're not voting on policies. We're voting on the rhetoric that we're hearing at rallies. People are going to be voting on promises, promises that were already kept, promises that this president would lower interest rates. Right, but now they're voting on new promises that won't be kept. The president? No, I get it. But I'm saying, but I think it's a combination thereof. The lower inflation didn't happen. Not enter into endless wars. That didn't happen. The exact opposite happened. So I think it's a combination of both reflecting on someone who said, I feel stupid for what I did.
32:49I feel dumb that I voted for him twice. I think it's reflective of what they experienced. They deported his fiance. He's never going to support someone who's going to do that. That's right. But in that same Daily Show clip, there were a ton of people who said they were going to stand with Trump through hell or high water. I think the congressman has been an important point, which is that if Democrats retake both houses, I'm going to assume we're going to retake the House, pressure will be on. I mean, one thing that I have said over and over again is that January 2027 cannot be January 2025. Again, they cannot show up looking like they got punched in the face.
33:24They've got to show up ready to go. The bill's written, the game plan done, the rules figured out. and ready to actually take some actions. And even if they don't have a veto-proof majority, go out and fight and make Republicans explain why do you think it's okay for Trump to have a billion dollars to refit the Qatari plane when our health care costs are going up? Why are we building an arch when, you know, Medicaid costs are getting out of control? I mean, I think they've got to try to keep their promises, but they've also got to stop having the fight from the back foot and get on the front foot and make them defend what they're doing.
34:02We'll see if they have that plan in place. If that happens, stand by, everyone, because up next, remember, Republicans tried to redraw their way to victory in Texas. Well, my next guest may be about to spoil their plans. Democrat Johnny Garcia joins me next.
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35:26A year ago, Texas Republicans thought they were in the driver's seats for the midterms. The state redrew its congressional district at the time at the discretion of the president of the United States. They were hoping to gain five GOP seats. But a year later, things may not be going according to plan. The Cook Political Report is rating at least four Texas districts as battlegrounds this midterm cycle. And one of those is in a district Trump won by 12 points two years ago. I'm talking about the open 35th Congressional District. And polls suggest that at race between Democrat and former Sheriff's Deputy Johnny Garcia and Republican Air Force veteran Carlos Hila Cruz is a dead heat.
36:08Johnny Garcia joins me now. Johnny, welcome. Thank you for this conversation this evening. I mean, why do you think this redistricting gambit by Republicans in Texas might backfire next week? Look, it's definitely going to backfire. And Laura, thank you so much for having me on. Look, this was one of the five seats that Donald Trump called Greg Abbott to redraw in order to rig and cheat and steal their way to retaining power in this midterm election. But they weren't anticipating pissing off a Democrat sheriff's deputy, the only one in the nation running for Congress to say, I ain't going to let their gerrymander happen on my watch.
36:48And now we're seeing in the last seven days of this election, Latinos wake up and come back to our party. We're seeing numbers at the polls surpass what we've had in previous election cycles. And it's why I'm so excited that we're going to win this seat and ultimately win back the House majority. Let's look at those numbers because the polls show that your opponent leads among Latino voters. But Tallarico is dominating among Latino voters in your district. What's driving that disconnect? The economy, reckless tariffs, unaffordable health care, a new war that we have still haven't gone out of in Iran.
37:29These are the things that tremendously impact my community. When I'm talking to small business owners and working class families, they tell me the cost of everyday goods is out of control. When we're talking about health care in this district, which is the largest uninsured state in America, it absolutely makes no sense when Senate and House Republicans don't want to make permanent ACA tax credits and subsidies. And now we're seeing diesel prices skyrocket through the roof. These are the things that are agitating people on both sides of the aisle here in Texas. And it's why we're seeing such a monumental shift in the last stretch of this race.
38:02You know, Republicans, though, are trying to tie you and other Democrats to the DSA. Voters in your district still have an unfavorable view of the Democratic Party. Tell me about whether you're concerned that that association could harm you at the polls. Look, let it be clear, I'm no DSA member. I'm an old school Democrat. I'm a sheriff's deputy. I'm a Texas Democrat and I'm a law and order Democrat. What they try to throw at us is complete desperation because they know that they're sinking in the polls. They can see and ultimately sense defeat on November 3rd. And I'm doing everything that I can to make sure that I'm reaching voters where they are.
38:42My opponent, who is running to be Donald Trump's wingman is going to be an uncheck on everything that is going wrong these days when it's data centers that are coming into our community and draining up the resources, whether it's going against this reckless war in Iran and the policies that he supports. These are the things that people are seeing clearly between me and my opponent as the stark difference. And it's why I'm so focused on winning this race, because look, when I'm talking to Latinos in this district, I tell them this, saying that my mom taught me that I still live by to this day.
39:21I'm not asking for a hand up. I'm just asking for an opportunity to fight for you and your families. And believe me, I will. Seven days to go. Johnny Garcia, thank you so much. Thank you. Still ahead, everyone. It's your turn to drive the conversation. The panel takes on your questions and comments next.
39:48All right, my favorite time. We're getting a lot of great questions from you out there at home, so let's get right to the panel. And remember, you can always send us your questions at CNN.com slash EngagePolitics. I know you've been answering questions already throughout the show. Here's a question coming up. Do the Republican panelists think it's really a good idea for Trump to fight with El-Sayed and Obama over silly stuff? Brian, Pete, who wants to take it first? Go ahead, Pete. Well, I'll just say what I said in the chat, which is whether it's good or not depends on who the audience is. And the people who are in the room at these rallies, it's good for them.
40:21Although not every comment. If you watch the reaction from the people behind Trump when he made the Nicki Minaj comments, they loved it. But when he said the thing about we're making a freaking fortune, stone faced. He doesn't know his audience as well as he used to. Brian? No, listen, I think nothing unifies the Democratic Party better than probably two words. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. We now have a third word that we can add, and I think it's going to be a good thing. Those are six words. Okay. I'm mapping. It's almost right. Okay. I'm done with the math. All right, got it. If I get you, I'm messing with you.
40:55All right, how about this one? How effective would it be if Kamala went on a, I told you so, or I tried to warn you, or I was right about Trump campaign for 2028? That's interesting. And Karen? I wouldn't make it a 2028 message, but I will say I love the memes. It's the Hillary Clinton was right about everything. Kamala Harris was right about everything. People have actually even taken to pulling moments from the debates that Hillary had with Donald Trump and pulling out clips of, remember when she said he was Putin's puppet? Remember when she said it? I love it. Is it working? Will it work in 2028, though?
41:28No, I wouldn't do it for 2028, but it makes me feel good. I think it goes back to, it's not the message, it's the messenger, maybe? I think the message is right. It's who's delivering the message that we could substitute there. All right, well, here's a question. What is the Democratic Party plan to bring down these prices that us everyday people face? I haven't heard a single plan on how to bring the gas prices down. Well, that's a good question. Let me ask you, because you've been in Congress. This is often a question after an election. They want to know, all right, now what? What do you tell them?
41:56I think they first have to end this war. You help to stop the funding of this war, end this war in Iran. And I think that's the first way to start to address the Straits of Hormuz, get them opening again. I think we have gotten so distracted in terms of Putin and the president's love affair with him. We've gotten off base in terms of support for Ukraine. So this whole world needs to, I think, settle down. And one other way to do that is to end this war. Interesting. I wonder if that would be the priority number one. All right. Here's another thought. Someone says, I'm sorry, but all of these millions and billions of dollars they are spending on these elections would be more useful to the country if they used it to pay down the national debt.
42:39All right. Well, Brian, why don't you take that? Listen, I think elections are great. As a political consultant who has various clients in political elections, I think we should spend more money on elections. But yes, at some point, the Republican Party should figure out how to prioritize reducing the national debt again. It's a lost issue for us. Now, that's transparency. Thank you for telling us the agenda and also. OK, there you go. All right. How about this one? Give me one race where the possibility of a Democratic win is overlooked and give one race where the possibility of a Republican win is overlooked.
43:09That's interesting. What thoughts? Karen. Tom Cotton is in trouble in Arkansas and the Democratic candidate there, Haley, she is an incredible candidate. You know, she is a farmer. She and her family had to make the decision to sell their family farm after something like 100 years last year, actually. And so she is very in touch with what, you know, the farming crisis in Arkansas, what everyday folks are facing and dealing with. She is not a politician, which is so refreshing. And frankly, I think we need more of that in Congress. So that's one I think we should keep an eye on. Pete? I don't know that he's going to win.
43:47The polling hasn't looked great lately, but I've enjoyed watching Johnson Unu's campaign in New Hampshire. I think he's a great candidate. He was a recruiting coup. That's hard to say. I should have practiced it in the mirror before the show. But I think he's run a great campaign. He has shown how you can run a credible race as a Republican in this environment. All right. Thank you. Nebraska won. Nebraska won. Mike Flood, Cook Report has moved a guaranteed Republican to a leaning Republican. Chris Backermeyer worked at the State Department, helped negotiate the Iran deal. Great candidate, homespun grown in Nebraska.
44:29All right, there you go. Thank you, everyone. Remember, you can stream the show live on the CNN app. And if you haven't heard, we're now streaming in the U.S., Canada, and the U.K. Scan that code down there. And hey, here comes Alex Michelson. Happy one-year anniversary for your show. I'm so glad you're at CNN. You continue to elevate the conversation. Can't wait to watch it.
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President Trump sought to bolster Republicans facing tougher-than-expected contests in the Lone Star State today with rallies in Corpus Christi and Lubbock, where Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico also campaigned tonight. Democrats are hoping to snap a 32-year statewide losing streak in the Senate and governor’s races.
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