Donald Trump meets global sport: a spin around the world of geopolitics

0:03Hello, and welcome to another episode of the Leaders Sport Business Podcast. the podcast about leaders in sport from leaders in sport. My name is James Emmett. I'm the editorial director here at Leaders. And with me as ever is my great good colleague, David Cushnan. David, how are you? I'm well, thank you. I thought you'd glitched slightly there. I'm experimenting with the spaces between the words. It's... I'm becoming a bit more Pinterest, I think. Yeah, that's one way to describe it. How are things, James? How are things? Do you know what? um everything's going really well thank you david good um another short week here in the uk we're in the uh the bank holiday month for may do you know what bugbear of mine i don't like people who call it a banky i have literally never heard have you not until this moment anybody describe it as a banky yeah it's um i don't know it just rubs me up the wrong way gets my hackles up okay yeah okay i don't really know where to go with that sorry about that yeah um anything new what's got what's going on with you, David?

1:09You've been watching a lot of sport. You've been reading a lot about sport business. I've been doing a bit of both, I think is the best way to describe it. Did you watch the fight from Times Square? I watched some clips of the fight from Times Square, which was the latest Ring magazine promotion, fight card. And I mean, spectacular location, obviously. slightly more fenced off than the initial renderings suggested. Well, you'd be nuts to do an actual open event in Times Square, wouldn't you? Yeah, but that is what the renderings look like. But yeah, this was Friday night in Times Square. I mean, a phenomenal bit of logistical and operational work to get the ring built, get everything assembled.

1:55It was a sort of quite an enclosed VIP audience, a lot of screens behind fences for the masses to watch. The boxing lads are making a play for most creative temporary sports venue. Well, yes. Do you remember for a long time it was squash? Yes. And squash actually have some pretty spectacular plans for LA as well. Don't press me on precisely what they are. I think it's the Universal Studios. That's right. We talked about it. archery have also been very good uh in their time at creative location finding i suppose for backdrops for their sport did you go to the archery at lords during the london 2012 olympics no i didn't go no i don't know i bet it was good i bet it was good saw a picture there it was nice yeah looked good and the renderings looked great as well red bull did an event recently um at the old Manchester Central Station and the pictures of some sort of weird BMX trick event.

2:56And the pictures from that look spectacular. Is that what a sport like paddle should be thinking about doing? I know the Red Bull links there, of course, with the... What, give people a pleasure for the eyes? Well, yeah. Go for the locations. Go for spectacular... spectacular. I don't know, David. If I knew what paddle should do, maybe I'd be in paddle administration. I don't know. That's true. That's true. Hey, James, have you entered the Leaders Sports Awards yet? You're not allowed, of course, because you work for leaders. No, but I've been advising all of my colleagues, clients and best friends in the industry to, hang on, recapture that momentum and impetus because, oh my goodness, the deadline has been extended.

3:41We're in overtime. Right now we're in overtime. So there is still just a little bit of time to get your entry created and indeed submitted. That's important. I feel like it's like that mad rush the night before university essay is due where you just decide how late can I push it? Cramming. And then you write something very strange and hopefully end up with a 2-1. Indeed, indeed. That's the playbook. Go to leadersinsport.com slash LSA for all the information. We have company categories. Of course, we also have the, I'm going to say, famous Leaders Under 40 award as well. there is something for everybody as we continue to champion the best of sports business and you know put your best work forward because we know there has been a lot of it around and about the industry we would love to showcase it you have a few days left to get your entries in ahead of the big night part of leaders week london and the awards night this year is tuesday 30 september really looking forward to that actually that's a new venue isn't it that's the the victoria and but the V &A Museum, doing all the biggest museums in London.

4:57It's going to be a spectacular night. Agreed, agreed. I think it's going to be great fun. David, I'd like you to introduce our guest for today's show. But before you do that, a note about our whereabouts in the next fortnight. Now, fortnight is a word that we use in England to describe two weeks, which I realise doesn't really exist in the US. so we're both going to New York in the next 10 days or so for our annual force sports and entertainment summit I'm interviewing Sean White the snowboarder yeah I heard that yeah that's gonna be a meeting of minds do you know what I probably shouldn't say this but given who we've got coming up on the show I should have said it when he was in but Sean White's maybe considering an Olympic comeback.

5:45What? Okay. Anyway, we're going to be in New York from the 19th of May for that week for our sports and entertainment extravaganza. David and I are also hosting the next edition of our Attention Seekers sports and entertainment media workshop series, which is always a fantastic half day. It's an afternoon in this instance, It's private, behind closed doors, real, intimate stuff. Always a highlight of mine whenever we travel. And we're also going to go to the SBAs, the Sports Business Awards, aren't we? We are. Always a glittering occasion in the heart of Manhattan. So, yeah, that's going to be fun.

6:30If you would like to take us for coffee. Coffee. Or indeed cocktails. Cocktail. Get in touch. Espresso martini. Tick them both off. Correct. Yeah. On the podcast today, we are going to be joined by John Zarafa. John is a man who has walked the corridors of power in all sorts of places as a sports communications strategist, as a man who has been on the inside of many major event, mega event bids, won some, lost a few, but won quite a number over the years. And he is now doing his own thing, running his consultancy, Clear Thought Communications. He's a strategic advisor to Signify as well. Many years, he was a founding director at Vero Communications.

7:18So a man with his finger very much still on the pulse of sport, how sport and politics intersect. And we thought, John is the man who can help us sort of carve a path through everything that's going on in the big wide world at the moment and work out what the implications might be for sport. Let's bring John Zarafa in now. John Zarafa is here. John, I'm going to call you a sports communication strategist. Would that be fair, accurate? That's very accurate, very fair, and totally happy with that, David. Super. Good to have you here. Lots going on in the world. Conflict, disruption, much of it centred around one Donald J.

8:00Trump. And we are here to talk about him and get the benefits of your wisdom observing some of these points where sport bumps into politics. Obviously, 2026 World Cup coming, 2028 Olympics coming. Just this week, we have seen Donald Trump host Roger Goodell in the Oval Office to announce Washington, D.C. will host the NFL Draft in 2027. and Tuesday he was there with his new best mate Gianni Infantino launching the new World Cup 2026 task force which sort of adds some government heft to preparations for the World Cup next summer another photo opportunity for Mr Infantino as well there is plenty to get into here But what is your top line read of Donald Trump and sport and how the two are intersecting?

8:57It's weird, challenging times. I mean, if you just take a step back, why do countries and nations bid for these mega events? It's generally to show the world a different face, to show that you're welcoming, to show that you're open for business, to show that you're dynamic. And it seems to me with Trump and MAGA politics at the moment, a lot of those things aren't part of American DNA just now, you know, closing the borders, obviously the terrorist strategy globally. So that makes, you know, if we just take the FIFA World Cup and the LA 28 games, quite a difficult backdrop. You know, both of those events are about welcoming the world and cohesion and unity.

9:40and everything that MAGA Trump politics is at the moment is the opposite. That said, if there's one thing that Trump is, he loves being in the spotlight. He loves being in the headlines. And he knows that those events are mega events where the US will be center of the globe. He will be center of the world. So he knows he has to make them success. Now, it ain't going to be an easy ride. It was really interesting yesterday just watching the comments that he made as this task force was unveiled and there were a group of people involved. The vice president, J.D. Vance, was there, as was the FIFA bigwigs.

10:17He sort of grouped together, as you would imagine, the World Cup, the Olympics, but also the 250th anniversary of America, which is happening in 2026. And he sort of described as it could be the biggest event of them all as this sort of yearlong celebration, opportunity to showcase the US. And we talk a lot about soft power as it relates to hosting and bidding for and staging some of these big events. You know, it's obviously, in the grand scheme of things, sport, these events, a very, very small portion of what he's dealing with and thinking about. But there does seem to be an element where he does sort of, you know, buys into the power of sport as a platform, the power of being on a global stage and showing off the best of America?

11:05I don't think he's into soft power. You know, clearly you look at the way he's cut his international budget. What he's into is Donald Trump's centre stage. That's the thing that drives him most. And he knows that these global events will put him centre stage. I mean, he's centre stage anyway, but they'll put him centre stage even more across those great events. I think that's what's driving him. He knows those events can't fail because it will make him look stupid. so that's really what's going to drive him to make them a success as i say i don't really think he believes in soft power american soft power does he believe in the unifying power of sport i'm not convinced he does um but in terms of football i think his interest in football obviously he has grown very close to gianni infantino baron his son is a big football soccer fan and you can't underestimate that sort of family kind of positivity of a particular sport really driving his interest in that sport and that event.

12:02It's a strange dichotomy, isn't it, really, Donald Trump, in that, on the one hand, arguably the most isolationist, aggressive, reckless president of the US there's ever been, certainly not the ideal host of any type of major event. But on the other hand, he's also arguably the biggest sports-loving president that there ever has been. And arguably he understands the sports business better than anyone who has been in that position before. Obviously he's got deep history with golf. He talks in the language of sport. It's the only language he understands. Winners, and you're either a winner or a loser.

12:41That's directly from sport. He's got this history of showing up at sporting events, knowing the people who run sporting events. Arguably that is a bit so that he can be sent to stage. but clearly it's a landscape that he understands instinctively. And yet, all of the stuff before it's this weird thing. I wonder, for the sports world, what's the best way to play Trump? And we see commissioners and leaders of sports organizations cozying up to him in some places. I wonder what your advice would be to a sports body that wants to play Trump right. I guess if you listen to anybody that knows Trump well, they all say the same thing, play to his ego.

13:31It's as simple as that. And so if you're Gianni Infantino or Thomas Bach leading into Kirsty Coventry, it's about, you know, we've both got a really big mutual interest here about making this thing a success. I want to look good. I'm sure you do, Mr. President. and these are the things that we need to do to make us both look like a success. I think it is really about playing to his ego. But you're absolutely right. I mean, particularly in golf, he's obviously a passionate golfer, plays probably more than he does in terms of working in the White House. But I guess the other thing with sport and his interest in sport is, you know, sport, as we all know, sort of intertwines with the American culture.

14:08So it really, sport talks to his MAGA base really well as well, whether it's American football or baseball or basketball, you know, it's a language that his support base really understands. So I think he probably gets it from that perspective. But as I say, I'm really not convinced that he gets the unifying power thing because that's just not in his DNA, I would argue. And John, from your perspective, having worked on numerous bids for major events, not just World Cups, also Olympics, having worked with organizing teams for major events as well. What are going to be the foremost issues now facing the administrators for the World Cup organizing committee, both on the ground in North America and also kind of FIFA?

14:54What are the issues that they're going to need to make Trump understand and push through? I think it's visas. I mean, particularly, it's pretty too late now for the Club World Cup, which is, what, five weeks away. And that will be fascinating to see actually how many foreign fans are able to visit for the Club World Cup. I suspect not as many as they were hoping. But visas is absolutely crucial, particularly for the World Cup. More so than the Olympics because it attracts more foreign visitors. I was just looking at some stats before I came on. And, you know, for some countries, the visa delay or the visa timeline to get an entry visa for the US is four, five, six hundred days.

15:30Now, as you say, there was this governmental task force meeting with FIFA this week in Washington, D.C. that involved a lot of the foreign embassies based in D.C. And that was about trying to reassure them that fans will get a fast-tracked visa system in place way ahead of the World Cup. If that doesn't happen, it could be a little bit of a car crash, I have to say. I think it will happen because, as we were just saying, Trump knows that he has to make this a success for his own reputation as much as FIFA's. And as I say, Gianni and Trump do seem to have a good relationship. But you can envisage a situation in the months leading up to the World Cup where fans request their visa and are denied their visa.

16:12I just I cannot see how that won't happen in certain circumstances. And in terms of the playing to Trump's ego bit, we obviously do have the Club World Cup coming up very in very short order now, which has obviously been talked about a lot. We've talked about it a lot on this podcast. Gianni Infantino has been almost on this one-man mission to sell tickets, promote the tournament. But there is a very genuine possibility because these are very, very big stadiums and some less well-known teams involved in this tournament that a lot of those stadiums could be relatively empty. And I just wonder whether that might be the kind of thing that does potentially change the dynamic between Trump and FIFA as they look ahead to what is likely to be a much more well attended event in a year and a bit's time with the World Cup itself.

17:04Yeah, I mean, I think you're right. I mean, let's see what happens in five weeks time for the Club World Cup. But it's going to be difficult to envisage a lot of travelling fans going to the US for that tournament because their visas just simply won't be in place. I mean, even for the UK, which has got a fast track system, I think it's an average weight of about 30 days. But as you say, a lot of those countries, whether it's Africa, South America, Middle East, Asia, they have very protracted visa requirements just at the moment. So I think FIFA was predicting around about 40 % foreign attendee ship for the Club World Cup.

17:40I think that will be challenging. it's i mean if it's not well attended it is going to be challenging for fifa from a communications perspective there are going to be people who uh you know say i told you so etc etc but looking ahead in its context ahead of the world cup it's kind of a win-win for fifa right because either the stadiums are full and it looks successful and um and popular and great wherever systems that allowed the stadiums to be full worked, or the stadiums aren't full and it's a wake-up call that they're able to give to Trump. To a degree. I mean, I think because Gianni Infantino has invested so much of his personal capital in that tournament, the Club World Cup, it needs to succeed for his reputation, actually.

18:26Now, he'll obviously survive even if those stadia are not full, but it won't be a good look. But you're right, James. I mean, he can then use that as leverage with Trump and the administration to say, look, we really do need to sort out this visa system for travelling fans for all our reputations. Any insight, John, into the world of FIFA at the moment and where different power bases might be who might not necessarily want Infantino to have a big success in the Club World Cup? His influence and hold is incredibly strong. You know, we all know that if you're responsible essentially for dishing out grants from a fee for HQ level to the member associations, that's a real ability to wield power.

19:15Everybody wants to water the money tree. Exactly. And what's interesting about 26 is it's the first World, well, properly the first World Cup where FIFA really is the organising committee. So they've obviously established HQ down in Miami and they're running the logistics. So it's less of an organizing committee setup. So FIFA, more than any other previous FIFA tournament, are really running this show. What would your advice be in terms of forging the kind of relationship that FIFA clearly has with the US government and with Trump? Thinking about some of the other major events, but not necessarily mega events that are heading to the US over the coming years.

19:55And I'm thinking the Rugby World Cup, for example. If you're world rugby at the moment, how much do you need US government backing support, enthusiasm in order to determine whether your tournament is successful or not? On areas like security, federal government guarantees on the budget, all those sort of things are normally standard practice for these major events. I just have a feeling that because of the geopolitics around Trump, I mean, up until two, three months ago, all eyes were on the US. Obviously, it's not just the World Cup, but the Olympics and other major events. I just feel that that glow is beginning to dim.

20:37You know, and obviously we've still got the Middle East on ascendancy. We've got China now re-emerging on the global scene. So I think the sort of the global landscape of hosting major events might begin to move back away from the US, partly because of Trump and geopolitics. In the meantime, of course, we do have the Olympics heading to Los Angeles in 2028. And there's also a new IOC president elected and poised to take full office. We're in this sort of slightly, well, the first time really, we've been in this sort of transitional period between presidents, which seems like a good idea in terms of getting Kirstie Coventry as the newly elected president up to speed on everything.

21:22First of all, on that IOC election, which happened obviously a few weeks ago, what was your reaction and sense of how all that played out? And then looking further ahead, what do you think are the key items in the in-tray of Kirsty Coventry when she does formally take office? I think like a lot of people, there was quite a bit of surprise that she won in the first round. And that shows how powerful the campaign quote marks was behind the scenes. Now, obviously, some people are saying that Thomas Bach was instrumental in her victory. Some people are saying that the Ambani family in India were very influential in her victory.

22:02She's got a lot in her entry. The other thing I think I'd say is, and people haven't really, I think, cottoned on to this, is nearly half of the IOC membership didn't vote for Kirsty Coventry. She probably is, but she needs to be cognizant of that fact because there will be a lot of those IOC members that had a lot of skin in the game about appointing a different IOC president and they will not, even though they might say publicly that they're very keen to work with the new president, privately I suspect the truth is somewhat different. It's a tricky way to win, isn't it, actually, in the first round?

22:34It looks ostensibly like this is the best way to win, it's conclusive, but actually you don't have the luxury of having the membership to have to make a second choice and vote for you. Well, especially given if she hadn't won in that first round, who knows what the outcome could have been because she maxed out her votes in that first round. And it was one vote above the barrier that she needed to cross. Exactly. Someone messed up the maths, right? So I think, you know, you talked about her in trade, David, but I think that issue of nearly half of IOC members didn't vote for. She's going to have to manage the membership more carefully than maybe she initially thought, is my sense.

23:17There's a lot of the job of IOC president that is unseen. And it's that kind of manoeuvring, I guess, and sort of bringing the troops along with you. And there's such a big Olympic ecosystem. But on the visible side, LA is the next big moment where the world will turn to the Olympic Games. And before that, there is inevitably going to be at some point, you would assume, the the Oval Office moment where Kirstie Coventry sits down with Donald Trump and they have that, you know, the cameras are in there and she has to do what we've seen world leaders do, what we've seen Gianni Infantino do, and sort of react in real time almost to whatever Donald Trump might say about the Olympic Games, about the Olympic movement, about transgender issues within sport, about any number of potentially controversial and divisive topics.

24:09He's going to be on the re-election campaign, isn't he? Or no, he'll be on some sort of election campaign. Yeah. So, well, he's, you know, depending on your interpretation of whether he can get re-elected or not. Currently he can't, right? Yeah. But again, if you were in that position of sort of having a word in Kirsty Coventry's ear before she goes into that situation, and it's worth saying, she is an experienced politician. She's, you know, has been the minister of sport in Zimbabwe, But it's a new level of diplomacy and geopolitics. And as I say, that sort of reacting in real time seems to be the new skill set for anybody who's put in a room in front of cameras with him.

24:53It's totally a different level, I think. And as I said earlier, I think one of the ways to navigate Donald Trump is ego. But what I find really fascinating about LA and Trump is this, you look at Los Angeles, it's West Coast, it's liberal, it's Democrat, everything that Donald Trump isn't. He almost loathes that sort of California, West Coast liberal democracy. But at the same time, as we were saying earlier, he knows probably deep down that he needs to make it a success because it's under his watch as president. So I think we're talking about Kirsty Coventry and how he plays Trump. One, it's about ego, but it's getting him in the most diplomatic way possible to understand that our victory is your victory.

25:40This is the world's biggest global sporting event. All eyes will be on you. All eyes will be on the IOC. Together, we need to make this work. But as I say, everything in his political instinct will be, I really do not like helping these Californians out. I wonder what your, I mean, you talked about the visa challenges and the challenge of actually getting people to go to the World Cup. And I presume a similar issue will be in play for the Olympics. But I wonder what your views are on the potential implications of Trump's tariff war on corporate backers of the Olympics and the World Cup. I mean, FIFA and the IOC have between them, I think, four or five major Chinese firms sponsoring them.

26:28Again, I think it's fascinating. If you're a Chinese sponsor of, whether it's FIFA or the IOC, traditionally, you would look to, quote, activate in the US during games. You might want to tell people you're the second biggest TV maker in the world. What was that? Hisensers. That was their tagline, wasn't it? It was so strange. So strange. Didn't translate. Maybe you're lost in translation yet. I mean, not all sponsors do this, but ultimately, why are they sponsoring an event or tournament? It's essentially to try and drive sales, right? Particularly in that market, but globally. But if your product to sell into the US is going to be 30%, 40%, 50 % more expensive because of Trump's tariffs, I would be shocked if marketing departments and finance departments in these big conglomerates are saying, well hold on a second what is the point of spending a hundred million dollars to activate in the euro to across or in ahead of the tournament if it's not going to drive sales in the u.s so i think that conversation will be happening now i'm sure it must be so so what i think might happen is those global brands will really focus on the non-us market tune into into global campaigns that don't include the u.s and i think it also leaves the way forward for u.s sponsors whether it's coke and visa, et cetera, almost having a clear lane to activate in market.

27:54It's funny when we talk about sport and major events, so much of the conversation in the past few years has been around Saudi Arabia. And it's almost as if everything that is happening and the World Cup, the Olympics in North America and everything that Trump is doing and saying and the impact that he's having, it's sort of taking the spotlight slightly away from what is still a very active and intriguing market. What's your sense of where Saudi Arabia and its strategy around, particularly major events, sports in general, but major event hosting, where are we at there, do you think? I mean, I think you sort of alluded to it, David.

28:34I think if I'm Saudi Arabia just at the moment, particularly in the context of the World Cup 2034, I'm pretty happy because all eyes now are beginning to focus on the US in terms of these big geopolitical issues, whether it's tariffs, closing the border, closing international aid. So you're probably even happier if you're Spain, Portugal, or Morocco, thinking about 2030, because nobody is talking about that. Well, yes. But as I say, because Saudi are and always have been in the spotlight for sports washing, they'll probably be even happier because it just takes the heat. Sorry about the phrase of Saudi.

29:10I mean, the only thing I find fascinating about Saudi is if you look at their tagline, growing together, their whole DNA of that bid and how they're going to position the tournament, how they are positioning the tournament, it's very much around welcome, welcoming the world, welcoming the globe, see Saudi hospitality, see their ambition opening up. It's absolutely the opposite of Trump's America at the moment. So you've got two very different narratives. and as I say it's not from a Saudi perspective that the spotlight's being taken away from them from the sports washing voice it's now they've got a real opportunity to position themselves very differently from the 26 tournament obviously there's another one to come after 26 in terms of Saudi though I mean I think there is no sign yet that they are taking their foot off the major event sporting pedal they see that as integral to their Vision 2030 it's a hugely young dynamic population they see it as a key part of their tourism strategy so unless there's a major shock in the global oil market i can't see that changing anytime soon when do you think we're going to get new visions i mean it's 2030 is not too long away right so it was what was thomas backs it was a vision 20 agenda 2020 plus five which is what he he tagged his second five-year plan.

30:33What's the first vision you worked on, John? Actually, I remember working on the Qatar World Cup bid. A lot of that was based around their Vision 2030. Vision 2030. If you're in the Gulf, you need a Vision 2030. You need a vision, yeah. I mean, it's probably Stalin, right? It goes back to Stalin's big five-year plans. John's first vision? No. I don't know. I'm getting older, but not that old. I don't remember you working on that one. Well, he would have kept it quite hush-hush, I guess. It was a very disciplined tempo. Yeah, indeed. It's funny, though, talking about Saudi and almost the opportunity that's in front of them now that Trump is taking up oxygen.

31:12He's the dead cat that keeps on bouncing. I guess that opportunity is there on a much wider scale for China as well to fill the kind of international leadership vacuum that the US is leaving. But yeah, from a sort of top level politics view, I guess there is an opportunity there for Saudi to kind of step up and shape the future of sport. I really think so. I mean, I would say that was a challenge for them until very recently, just because of the ingrained perception of sports washing, which I've never really bought into by the concept of sports washing, because you bid and you host these major events, it puts you firmly in the spotlight.