In short
Legal AF Podcast Episode Notes: Fed Chair Defies Trump as Prosecution Backfires
Episode Overview Podcast Title: Legal AF Episode Title: Fed Chair Defies Trump as Prosecution Backfires Hosts: Ben Meiselas, Michael Popok, Karen Friedman Agnifilo Release Date: [Insert Date] Description: This episode discusses Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell's defiance in the face of Trump’s criminal prosecution and how Trump's miscalculations are impacting the economic landscape.
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Key Points
Jay Powell's Defiance
- Press Conference Declaration:
Jay Powell, in a recent press conference, affirmed he would not resign amid Trump’s prosecution on alleged "construction fraud" charges. He stated:
- Will stay as temporary chair if Trump's successor is not confirmed by mid-May.
- Will not leave until the criminal investigation concludes in his favor.
Trump’s Legal Miscalculations
- Investigation's Impact:
The investigation into Powell is led by Jeanine Pirro, a Trump ally. The criminal charges relate to remodeling costs at the Federal Reserve.
- Judge's Ruling:
A judge quashed the subpoenas for the investigation, indicating no merit to the case against Powell, marking it as a bad faith prosecution.
Market Reactions
- Interest Rate Decisions:
During the Federal Reserve's meeting, only one out of twelve members supported cutting interest rates, defying Trump's desire for lower rates to stimulate the economy.
- Market Predictions:
Current market sentiment suggests no rate cuts until 2026, contrary to Trump's expectations.
Federal Reserve Structure
- Board Composition:
The Federal Reserve comprises seven Board of Governors. Powell's term is critical, as it influences the selection of members for the Federal Open Markets Committee, which directly impacts interest rate policies.
Political Implications
- Trump's Strategy:
Trump's attempts to pressure Powell into resigning have backfired, strengthening Powell's position and resolve.
- Confirmation Challenges:
The Senate's failure to confirm Kevin Warsh, Trump's proposed replacement for Powell, complicates Trump’s plans for the Federal Reserve.
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In-Depth Discussion
Powell’s Press Conference Highlights
- Commitment to Duty:
Powell reiterated his commitment to serve until the ongoing investigation concludes, emphasizing transparency.
- Construction Costs Controversy:
The investigation stems from cost overruns in remodeling Federal Reserve buildings, with accusations aimed at Powell regarding misuse of funds.
Analysis of Miscalculations
- Misreads on Powell's Resignation:
Trump and his allies miscalculated Powell's resilience, believing that pressure would cause him to resign out of embarrassment or fear.
- Long-Term Consequences:
The fallout from Trump’s attempts to undermine Powell may have lasting effects on the Federal Reserve's credibility and independence.
Economic Implications
- Interest Rate Policy:
The ongoing decisions regarding interest rates and their potential impact on inflation and economic growth were discussed.
- Future Predictions:
The likelihood of rising interest rates in 2027 signals a potential tightening of monetary policy, contrasting Trump's strategy.
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Conclusion The episode emphasizes the interplay between political maneuvering and economic policy, showcasing how Trump's legal strategies have inadvertently solidified Powell's position and authority within the Federal Reserve. The hosts suggest that these developments could have significant implications for both the economy and the political landscape moving forward.
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Additional Resources
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Note: For full transcripts and further details, visit the MeidasTouch website.
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Chapters
Tap a time to open that second in VOJay Powell's Defiance Against Trump
1:49 to 3:30
Understand Jay Powell's position as he defies Trump's pressures regarding the Federal Reserve.
“All it's done is strengthen his resolve.”
Jay Powell's Press Conference Highlights
3:31 to 5:28
Gain insights from Jay Powell's statements during the press conference about his future and the ongoing investigation.
“about whether interest rates were going to be cut or not.”
The Criminal Investigation Against Powell
5:29 to 7:30
Learn about the criminal investigation into Jay Powell and the response from the judiciary.
“I have no intention of leaving the board until the investigation is well and truly over with transparency and finality.”
Donald Trump’s Miscalculations
7:31 to 11:08
Analyze Trump's miscalculations regarding Jay Powell and the Federal Reserve's operations.
“And of course, that led to Janine Pirro basically getting all angry on behalf of Donald Trump and saying she's going to appeal and she's going to go after Jay Powell.”
Understanding the Federal Reserve's Structure
11:09 to 13:25
Get a detailed overview of the Federal Reserve's structure and its significance.
“That's the guy they've been effing with.”
Transcript
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1:48Popok:After 16 months of bashing the Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell, All it's done is strengthen his resolve. And in a press conference yesterday to announce no change in interest rates to bail out Trump's failed economy, Jay Powell went one step further. He told Donald Trump not only is he not leaving in May of 2026 when his Federal Reserve chairmanship is over, but that he will stay in that position as the chairperson pro tempore if Donald Trump's picked to replace him is not confirmed by the Senate. And it's not looking good between now and May the 15th for Kevin Warsh to be confirmed by the Senate because Donald Trump has opened up a criminal investigation against Jay Powell, the Federal Reserve led by Jeanine Pirro, his political ally in the U.S.
2:43Popok:Attorney's Office in D.C. She's not letting up. That's making Jay Powell get his Irish up, as they like, as Joe Biden liked to say, and says he's not going anywhere until the investigation is completely over and he's effectively been cleared. Therefore, Tom Tillis in the Senate, who's leaving the Senate but has a vote on the Senate Banking Committee, he says he won't vote for Donald Trump's replacement as chair of the Federal Reserve in Kevin Warsh unless the Federal Reserve chairman is cleared of his criminal investigation. Oh, what a tangled web Donald Trump has woven. You're here on the Midas Touch Network and Legal AF.
3:25Popok:I'm Michael Popok. Let's get to the new reporting in the last 24 hours. We knew that the Federal Reserve was going to be meeting yesterday and making their decision about whether interest rates were going to be cut or not. Donald Trump wants them cut because that's cheap money. That helps bail out his failed economic policies by making money really cheap, and therefore people invest with really cheap money, except it leads to hyperinflation. The Federal Reserve makes the decision about ratings and rates based on what's called the Federal Open Markets Committee. It's comprised of 12 people, seven members of the Board of Governors, of which Jay Powell is the chair, and five rotating members who are presidents of the regional Federal Reserve banks.
4:15Popok:And out of that 12 people, you know how many people wanted to cut interest rates? One. Even two Trumpers, Waller and Bowman, said, we're not cutting rates. So there goes rate cuts. And the market has reacted. In fact, the market doesn't think there's going to be a rate cut again in 2026. And there may be a rate increase in 2027. So take that. But in that same press conference, a defiant Jay Powell, somebody I've never seen before. The fact that I'm putting defiant and Jay Powell in the same sentence is amazing. He is a very calm, quiet, moderate person, genius when it comes to economic policy.
4:58Popok:But he took to the podium. And he had this to say, fighting back against Donald Trump. Play the clip. What happens if there's no Federal Reserve chairman confirmed on May 15th? Would you stay on? So if my successor is not confirmed by the end of my term as chair, I would serve as chair pro tem until he is confirmed. That is what the law calls for. That's what we've done on several occasions, including involving me. And it's what we're going to do in this situation. And while I'm at it, on the question whether I will leave while the investigation is ongoing, I have no intention of leaving the board until the investigation is well and truly over with transparency and finality.
5:41And I would refer you to the statement that was in the Fed's brief that you all have seen. And I won't have anything more for you on that. On the question of whether I will then continue to serve as a governor after my term ends and after the investigation is over, I have not made that decision yet. And I will make that decision based on what I think is best for the institution and for the people we serve.
6:02Popok:Now, that's not the first time we've seen Jay Powell say that I'm not going anywhere, that I've got to be well, that the investigation has to be well and truly over, that it has to be concluded with full transparency. In other words, bring it. What is the whole criminal investigation about? Well, the Federal Reserve is remodeling two out of its four buildings that make up the Federal Reserve compound in Washington. They haven't been remodeled in 100 years since they were built. You're talking about asbestos. You're talking about old elevators, old wiring, old HVACs, you know, heating and air conditioning.
6:40Popok:And there's some cost overruns. I mean, after COVID, the supply chain for construction materials has gone through the roof. Donald Trump knows that, right? He doubled the price of his own ballroom. But they decided to open up a criminal investigation of Jay Powell related to the cost overruns as if he's lining his own pockets with money. You saw Jay Powell. He's lining his own pockets with money from the construction overruns. That's the crime. That's so ludicrous that Jeb Boesburg, chief judge of all grand jury proceedings in the federal court in D.C. just dismissed the subpoenas. The grand jury subpoenas were quashed by Jeb Bozberg, who declared there is no criminal case of any merit at all, no evidence whatsoever to justify the prosecutors going after Jay Powell.
7:29Popok:In other words, it's a bad faith prosecution. And of course, that led to Janine Pirro basically getting all angry on behalf of Donald Trump and saying she's going to appeal and she's going to go after Jay Powell. And somebody asked her, well, what do you think that means for the confirmation of Jay Powell's successor, Kevin Warsh? How are you going to get that guy confirmed to replace if you're still running your criminal investigation? Play the clip. Jerome Powell today is now bathed in immunity, preventing my office from investigating the Federal Reserve. This is wrong, and it is without legal authority.
8:13And so this decision today by Judge Boesberg runs directly afoul of our highest court's admonition that courts and judges must not and cannot saddle grand juries with many trials and preliminary showings that impede a prosecutor's investigation and thus frustrate the public's interest in the fair and expeditious administration of justice. No one, folks, is above the law. And this outrageous decision will be appealed by the United States Department of Justice.
9:01Popok:Donald Trump miscalculated. We start a lot of hot takes videos with Donald Trump miscalculated, whether it's Iran. You know, we just had reporting today that Iran took out 17 percent of our ally, Qatar, and its natural gas pipeline. It's going to be three to five years before they get that back online. So 17 % of natural gas just sort of disappeared in terms of volume, meaning the prices of natural gas are going to go way up over the next three to five years, which are going to impact you and me in our pocketbook. Miscalculation, miscalculation about the Strait of Hormuz and how much oil could move through once Iran decided to shut it down.
9:39Popok:and miscalculations about Jay Powell. They thought they were going to embarrass their way into having Jay Powell resign before May 15th of 2026, just in about a month and a half, which is when his chairmanship is over, and then embarrass him to resign from the entire Federal Reserve Board in 2028. But all you have to do is watch Jay Powell school Donald Trump about the cost overrun and turned the tables on him when Trump tried to embarrass him in real time in a press conference to know that Jay Powell wasn't going anywhere. Play the clip. It looks like it's about 3.1 billion. It went up a little bit or a lot.
10:21So the 2.7 is now 3.1. I'm not aware of that. Yeah, it just came out. Yeah, I haven't heard that from anybody. Yeah, it just came out.
10:35I know it's at about 3.1 as well. 3.1. 3.2. This came from us? Yes. I don't know who does that. You're including the Martin renovation. You just added in a third building is what that is. That's a third building. Well, I know, but it's a building that's being built. No, it was built five years ago. We finished Martin five years ago. It's part of the overall work. It's not new. So we're going to take a look. we're going to see what's happening uh and it's got a long way do you expect any more additional crossover ones don't expect them uh we're we're ready for them but we we have a little bit of a reserve that we may use but no we don't expect to be finished in 2027 um we're well along as you can see uh nice to take these off every once in a while when we're not under too much danger.
11:29Popok:That's the guy they've been effing with. That's the guy they thought more mean tweets is going to make him resign. Really? Now, why is there this fight? Let's do a teachable moment now about the Federal Reserve. It's comprised of seven members. As currently constituted, four of those members were appointed by non-Trump people, Biden, Obama, and the like. The four non-Trumpers, which are the majority of the Federal Reserve, are Powell, his term expires in 2028, chairmanship in 2026, but his full term in 2028, Jefferson in 2036, a second one in 2032, and Cook in 2038. Not going anywhere. The three Trumpers, Waller, his term expires in 2030, Bowman in 2034.
12:24Popok:And then the third one, which is expiring now, should be Kevin Warsh. And that one has to be replaced. Now, the reason why the majority control of that board is so important is because the majority picks who are the other members of the Federal Open Markets Committee, which meets monthly, quarterly, to talk about interest rates. That's a 12-member committee. Seven of them are the Board of Governors I just described. Five come from the Federal Reserve's regional banks and their presidencies. That's picked by the majority on the Federal Reserve's Board of Governors. So if you get control, which Donald Trump wants to do, if Jay Powell were to say, I've had it, I throw in the towel, Donald Trump gets the majority of the Board of Governors.
13:12He wipes out and picks five new members from the presidents.
13:19Popok:He fires all the regional presidents. And now he's got control of the Federal Open Markets Committee. So it's not just about one vote. If he gets one vote on the board of governors, he really picks up the majority over on the Open Markets Committee to set interest rates. And that's what he wants. So that's what we're watching. So the fact that Jay Powell has decided he needs to stand and fight until the very end, the bitter end, and he's not going anywhere. And then I love the extra little twist, which is, hey, if you can't get your guy confirmed for the chairmanship, Kevin Warsh, I'm happy to stay on as the chair until you do.
14:01Popok:That's happened three or four times in our history during confirmation processes. So we're going to continue to follow it all. You're on the Midas Touch Network, your independent channel of choice. Legal AF YouTube needs your support and love as well. Come over there. Hit the free subscribe button. So until my next report, I'm Michael Popak. Can't get your fill of Legal AF? Me neither. That's why we formed the Legal AF Substack. Every time we mention something in a hot take, whether it's a court filing or a oral argument, come over to the Substack. You'll find the court filing and the oral argument there, including a daily roundup that I do call, wait for it, Morning AF.
14:39Popok:What else? All the other contributors from Legal AF are there as well. We got some new reporting. We got interviews. We got ad-free versions of the podcast and hot takes. Wear legal AF on Substack. Come over now to free subscribe.
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From the publisher
A defiant Fed Reserve Chair Jay Powell declared at his press conference that he is not only not resigning early in the face of Trump’s criminal prosecution against him on conjured up “construction fraud” charges, but that he is willing to stay in as temporary chair if/when Trump’s pick fails to be confirmed by the Senate by Mid May, and will never leave the Fed Reserve until the criminal investigation is ended in his favor. Popok drills down on all of Trump’s miscalculations that have led Chair Powell to dig in to protect the American Economy from Trump and refuse to leave while sticking it to Trump in the presser.
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