Trump at a Loss as Supreme Court Dines With Him and Then Rules Against Him

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0:43Michael Popok:And unlike ice cream, it won't drip down your wrist or look nothing like the picture. Does anyone have any cash? Give it a try at mintmobile.com slash switch. Upfront payment of$45 for three months, $90 for six months, or$180 for 12-month plan required. $15 per month equivalent. Taxes and fees extra. New customer offer for initial plan term only. Greater than 50 gigabytes may slow when network is busy. It's very hard to get to the United States Supreme Court to agree on anything these days, especially when we're talking about votes and maps and the election. But what amounts to a 9-0 decision by the United States Supreme Court in just the last few hours tells Missouri's voters that they're going to be using a 2022 congressional map, which is slightly more favorable to Democrats, than a 2025 map drawn up to appease Donald Trump that would have left the congressional delegation in Missouri at 7-1 Republican advantage.

1:32Michael Popok:Now the Democrats, because the Supreme Court says so, have at least a fighting chance. I don't know if it's going to be five to two or six to three, but it's better than it was before. You might think this is a repeat episode of Legal AF about Missouri and maps. And yes, this is the third time the United States Supreme Court in less than two weeks has had to tell the Missouri Secretary of State and now the Eighth Circuit Court of Appeals and federal judges in Missouri that the Missouri Supreme Court's ruling that the 2025 map created by the right-wing MAGA legislature could not be used until it ends up on the ballot as a referendum with a vote up, thumbs up or thumbs down by the voters in Missouri.

2:20Michael Popok:That is now the law of the land. The Supreme Court telling the Eighth Circuit and chastising them that they made an error, that didn't properly follow the ruling by the United States Supreme Court. This is now the final word, at least for this midterm election, and probably into the future as well. As it relates to the Missouri maps, this was a strange day at the United States Supreme Court. Earlier in the day, the Supreme Court issued a ruling about databases and said it was okay, at least for now, for the Trump administration to take all of your social security information, everything about you, and let it get sucked up into a Department of Homeland Security database and combine it to do voter citizenship record checking.

3:09Michael Popok:Even there, they said, you can't purge the voter rolls and get rid of voters between now and the midterms, but we're going to let you build the database. But then just a few hours later, we've got the case order in people, not politicians versus Robert Under. It's a strange case. I'm going to read to you from the procurium decision unsigned, no dissents, unanimous here on Legal AF to kick off Saturday morning. And in addition, programming note coming up right after this hot take is unprecedented, our podcast devoted to the United States Supreme Court to get you ready for all things that are going on right now with the Supreme Court as the summer wraps up and what happens on October 5th when the court opens for business.

3:57Michael Popok:You're not going to want to miss it. We're relaunching it with Lisa Graves, constitutional scholar and Roberts expert and me coming up in just an hour. But let's whet your appetite with what just happened at the United States Supreme Court. Here's what went on in Missouri. Missouri had a map. It was still favorable to Republicans in a red state, but by a margin of, let's say, six to two or maybe five to three. It wasn't good enough for Donald Trump and wants to try to steal the election before it even is run. So he had and forced the legislature in Missouri to remap themselves. They came up with a 2025 map in something called House Bill 1, which would, if it was in effect right now, would lead definitely to a 7-1 Republican advantage.

4:46Michael Popok:Now, it may not sound like much. One or two more seats for the Democrats out of Missouri now, based on the Supreme Court ruling. But we don't know exactly how the midterm election is going to play out. It could come down to a knife's edge. It could come down to one or two votes in the House for control. This is important. So what happened there? A group, a public interest group called People Not Politicians, got a petition signed. Over 300 ,000 signatures of voters who said they wanted that map that was drawn up by the red MAGA Republican legislators to be up on a ballot initiative, a referendum for voters to decide on.

5:27Michael Popok:and under the Missouri Constitution, any act of the legislature, including about maps, can be subject to a vote of the will of the people and a referendum if 300 ,000 voters put their name on a signature. And they did. And they delivered it to the Secretary of State. But he said, no, it's not good enough. He said, no, that referendum provision in the Constitution doesn't apply to mapping. Really? that eventually went up to the Missouri Supreme Court, which, by the way, itself is dominated by Republicans 5 to 3. And they, including the chief judge who's Republican, they said to the Secretary of State, Danny Haskins, you're wrong.

6:11Michael Popok:That's not right. We'll interpret as the highest court of our law on the Constitution of our own state. And the referendum provision applies to the maps. So until the 2025 map drawn up as part of House Bill number one ends up being voted on by the voters at the midterm, it can't be used at the midterm. You'll have to use the 2022 map instead. Now, they didn't like that answer. So they went over to the United States Supreme Court. And Justice Kavanaugh, who sits over that particular circuit, the Eighth Circuit, he said, no, I'm not going to block the ruling of the Missouri Supreme Court. And so that should have ended it.

6:58But no, it didn't end it. So they tried again and they went over to federal court.

7:04Michael Popok:They left the state process and they went to federal court and they filed a new case to get a Trump-appointed judge in St. Louis, Missouri, in that district, to order that the 2025 map be used in the form of an injunction. And he did. And what did this United States Supreme Court do next? They blocked it again. And they said he was wrong and that the 2022 map should be used. That was done on September 10th. And that's the operative law. So all the ballots should have been printed with the 2022 maps, right? So everybody knows who they're voting for, for Congress. By the way, vote for us. Early voting is started here on Legal AF.

7:47Michael Popok:Take a minute, hit the free subscribe button. Help us to continue to grow our pro-democracy channel. But that's not what happened. Instead, Justice Kavanaugh and the whole court had to tell Missouri Secretary of State again that he was wrong. They needed to use the 2022 map. At the same time, the Missouri Supreme Court was going to hold him in contempt unless he complied with their order, their ruling, affirmed by the Supreme Court, that the 2022 map be used. That should be the end of the story, right? No. They took it up to the Eighth Circuit Court of Appeals, Missouri did. That's dominated by Republicans.

8:23Michael Popok:How many Republicans? Well, there's 11 judges on the Eighth Circuit. 10 out of the 11 are Republican, all coming through the Federalist Society and Leonard Leo. And so you shouldn't be shocked when three of them in a panel sided with the St. Louis federal judge and said, 2025 map it is. Back to the Supreme Court we go. And we just got their ruling for the third time. How many times does Missouri's Republicans have to be told which map to use? Apparently, the magic number is three. All right, let's read it. Procurium means this is the collective wisdom of the entire court without dissent. That sounds like a 9-0 decision to me.

9:08Michael Popok:Here's how it starts. In 2022, the Missouri legislature enacted a redistricting map for elections to the U.S. House. In 2025, the Missouri legislature enacted a new map. But, big but here, under the Missouri Constitution, as interpreted by the Supreme Court of Missouri, the Supreme Court of the United States says, a new law such as the 2025 map does not take effect unless and until it's approved by the voters in a referendum in the next election. at least where here 300 ,000 people have signed the petition. Therefore, on September 3rd, the Missouri Supreme Court ruled that the 2025 map is not the law, has never been the law, and will not take effect unless and until approved by the voters in the 2026 midterm election.

10:02Michael Popok:Supreme Court continues, in short, as a matter of state law, the 2022 map, not the 2025 map, must be used at the midterms. You'd think that would end it, right? Nope. In the wake of the recent Missouri Supreme Court decision, the U.S. Supreme Court says, a group of voters and candidates sued in federal court. So they jumped the tracks and they went to federal court. They contended that the U.S. Constitution requires Missouri to use the 2025 map. Well, what happened there? On page two, it says, in two orders, it took two orders, This is the third one. In the last few weeks, this court has denied such relief.

10:43Michael Popok:And they walk through how those things have been denied. In fact, they say that the federal district court judge in St. Louis and his September 8th injunction requiring the use of the 2025 map was stayed on September 10th in an order issued by the full court without any dissent, meaning unanimous. And as far as the Supreme Court's concerned, that was the order that's in place today. Given this court's two prior orders in this litigation, our conclusion that this was an error to rule otherwise should come as no surprise. That's a nice way to rebuke and chastise the Eighth Circuit Court of Appeals and the federal district judge who they're saying got it wrong.

11:29Michael Popok:Which part of our two orders are you not understanding? Now, when other judges have gotten things wrong who are Democrats, they often wag their finger. How dare you oppose the United States Supreme Court? And you are being disobedient. And you are being, you know, you're not allowed to reject what we say. We are the Supreme Court and the supreme law of the land. Here, they're a lot nicer, mainly because there were a lot of Republicans involved. But they continue. They also say that the Purcell principle, which I'll explain in a moment, applies because ballots are out. People need to have, they need to understand and have stability about who they're voting for.

12:15Michael Popok:They can't have utter chaos. And the Purcell principle says the closer you get to an election, the less a federal court should interfere and try to change the rules of the road for that particular election because it becomes very political. Stay out of it effectively. It's a doctrine created by the Supreme Court to protect itself. And when you're down to 40 days or even 60 days or less, they'll often cite the Purcell principle as the reason that they are blocking a certain action of a court. They say on page three, this court has repeatedly cautioned that lower courts should not alter the election rules of a state on the eve of an election.

12:56Michael Popok:The Purcell principle applies with an even greater force here. The election is not merely upcoming, the Supreme Court says. It's already started. That means the election has started. People are electing on ballots who they want. Ballots using the 2022 map have been printed and mailed. Absentee voting has already begun, as has military and oversee voting. According to local election officials in Missouri, at this point, it is practically impossible to revert to the 2025 map. That they rely on for that a friend of the court brief that was filed by a non-party, the Missouri Association of County Clerks and Election Authority.

13:38Michael Popok:See, amicus or friends of the court briefs really do work. They then take time to chastise the Eighth Circuit. Again, MAGD dominated. The eighth on page four. The Eighth Circuit's application of Purcell was incorrect. Even though the federal court should not impose changes close to an election, states are free to decide for themselves whether last-minute changes are in the best interests. Moreover, in this case, the Missouri Supreme Court was not responsible for the late-breaking changes. On the contrary, well before the primary election, the Missouri Supreme Court stated that the 2025 map would not have become effective until approved by the voters in intervening referendum.

14:22Michael Popok:The Secretary of State for Missouri nonetheless chose to proceed with a 2025 map for the primary. Here's a clip of that, Yahoo, so you know who I'm talking about. He's usually dressed in a bright red clown suit. I'm sorry, sport jacket. Play the clip. Hello, fellow Missourians. Thank you. It's an honor to serve as your Secretary of State. Never in my wildest dreams did I ever think the small-town kid from Loose Creek, Missouri, would be a statewide elected official. As I've been ordered to go back to the Missouri Supreme Court this afternoon, I'm reminded of what my dad always told me. A Hoskins never gives up.

14:56Many times the right thing to do is not always the easiest thing to do. I will never give up on doing what's right. I will always stand up and fight for you and the Missouri we all know and love. However this turns out, please keep Missouri in your prayers. God bless you and God bless this great state.

15:13Michael Popok:So here's how they end it. the district court, that's you in St. Louis, and the Court of Appeals, that's the Eighth Circuit, and you three idiots should not enjoin or otherwise prohibit the use of the 2022 map in the 2026 congressional election. In other words, we are shutting the door. We're nailing it shut. We don't want to hear from you again. This is over 2022 map only. And what I think is in a sea change election, the way we're watching right now in the polling, It's not just going to be the Democrats picking up two more seats. It could be three more seats. This could be a five to three delegation, which is a lot better than a seven to one delegation where both parties are trying to count every vote to get to 218.

15:59Michael Popok:See, that's the magic number in order to control the House. 435 seats up for grab all at the same time. People can't believe that in the United States of America, every two years or so, we do a fire drill when it comes to electing our House of Representatives, but we do. But of those 435 seats, they're not all competitive. In other words, most of the Congress, about 400 out of those 435 seats, those races are decided. They're solidly blue or solidly red or solidly incumbent, at least, and they're all going back to the House. It's about 30 seats that are up for grabs, probably less than that, that are competitive.

16:39Michael Popok:And that's where the swing happens. How many of those 30 seats are going to swing to the Democrats? And how many of the seats that we were not, that even sitting here now, we're thinking, well, those are safe seats, become unsafe seats, especially if the rising tide of anger is about throw party leaders out, throw the establishment out. There could be a lot of incumbents who lose that we weren't expecting. So this Missouri decision, I think, opens the floodgates for a successful ride for the Democrats at the midterms. We'll cover it all. You're on Legal AF. You're already here. Join us. Hit the subscribe button and hang around for a full day of programming today and tomorrow that I'm leading, including the unprecedented Supreme Court podcast coming up next.

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