Trump Crushed by Canada Heads to Mexico With Tail Between Legs to Beg for Bailout

10 Sep 2026 · 16 min · 5 chapters

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In short

The episode argues the Trump administration is escalating a Canada–U.S. trade war while making a strategically incoherent move: sending Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick to Mexico instead of engaging Canada. Topic: counter-tariffs and “counter countermeasures,” USMCA renegotiation, and supply-chain leverage in steel/auto manufacturing.

Guest backgrounds

no named guests; the host is Michael Popok, with clips featuring Howard Lutnick and Canadian PM Mark Carney.

Key claims

Canada’s retaliation and the administration’s “few moves” leave the U.S. exposed; power-grid and fuel interdependence matter; USMCA governs autos so Mexico/Canada can squeeze the U.S.

Notable examples

Lutnick’s steel/auto “czar” role; Carney’s message predicting up to 1% Canadian GDP loss; proposed U.S. actions targeting Canadian goods, alcohol, and motorcycles.

Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.

Chapters

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Trump's Economic Moves and Canada's Response

0:28 to 1:59

Discussing the trade war dynamics between the U.S. and Canada.

“Just hours after that message, you would think, well, maybe leadership, which is obviously in short supply in the United States, would send some sort of representative to Ottawa to try to solve this problem, right?”

Leadership in Canada: Mark Carney's Message

1:59 to 3:08

Analyzing Mark Carney's leadership and economic outlook for Canada.

“I've got a special vantage point here for this particular video.”

Trump's Countermeasures and Regional Impact

3:08 to 5:51

Exploring Trump's limited options and their implications on U.S.-Canada relations.

“More unified, more determined, more ambitious.”

Howard Lutnick's Diplomatic Challenges

5:51 to 10:25

Examining Lutnick's negotiations in Mexico and Canada's strategic responses.

“steel industry, is on his way to Mexico, apparently, to do the same thing with Claudia Scheinbaum and her economic secretary, Marcelo Eberard.”

China's Growing Influence Amid U.S. Trade Issues

10:25 to 12:20

Discussing how China's role is being amplified in light of U.S. trade policy failures.

“We've got new reporting that China is out selling the rest of the world on, if you want a stable trading partner and you want billions of dollars invested in your infrastructure, come to China.”
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Transcript

Automatic transcript. May contain errors.

0:00Michael Popok:Starting a business can seem like a daunting task, unless you have a partner like Shopify. They have the tools you need to start and grow your business. From designing a website, to marketing, to selling, and beyond, Shopify can help with everything you need. There's a reason millions of companies like Mattel, Heinz, and Allbirds continue to trust and use them. With Shopify on your side, turn your big business idea into... Sign up for your$1 per month trial at shopify.com slash special offer. Well, on the day that the Trump administration responded to Prime Minister Mark Carney of Canada's video message to his people, telling them that they're in for a long fight, but an important fight against the United States in a trade war they didn't ask for, but that they need to win.

0:43Michael Popok:Just hours after that message, you would think, well, maybe leadership, which is obviously in short supply in the United States, would send some sort of representative to Ottawa to try to solve this problem, right? Donald Trump running out of moves after this latest counter counter tariffs. But what is what do we wake up to today? The leadership of the economic policy of Donald Trump in the form of Howard Lutnick, the Commerce Secretary, who's made himself the czar of steel and and the auto industry is on his way, not to Ottawa, but to Mexico. Right. He's got to now go down to Mexico to meet with the president of Mexico, Claudia Scheinbaum, because she obviously holds the keys to whether there's going to be any way for the Trump administration to get themselves out of the corner they just painted in the relationship between Canada, the United States and Mexico.

1:38Michael Popok:But it's very telling that when the obviously the United States should be looking north and meeting with Mark Carney and his trade representatives, they've instead got to send Howard Lutnick south to Mexico. Yeah, Mexico looking to bail out the United States for their failed Canadian policy. You're on Legal AF. I'm Michael Popok. I've got a special vantage point here for this particular video. I'm very close to the border of Canada. I'm in Detroit, Michigan, right over the border from Windsor, Ontario. I've always understood the importance of not only the relationship between America and Canadians, but the importance of the connectivity of their economy, because we can't run our economy without the support of Canada and, of course, of Mexico.

2:27Michael Popok:While you're here, hit that free subscribe button. Help us to continue to grow our channel. So let's first play the clip of the video message. This is what true leadership looks like as Mark Carney addresses his nation and the importance of not only fighting a good fight, but getting ready for the hardship that could result. I mean, there are economic models that show that Canada could suffer a up to 1 % loss of its gross domestic product for the year in the midst of this trade war. But it's a fight worth having and important for them to succeed in and win for Canadian sovereignty. Play the clip.

3:07Michael Popok:We're stronger now than when the United States started this trade war a year and a half ago. More unified, more determined, more ambitious. Our non-U.S. exports are up sharply, and they're on track to double over the next decade. Foreign direct investment in Canada is at its highest level in two decades, and it's running at twice the rate of our nearest G7 competitor. Canada is now rated as the most attractive country in the world for infrastructure investment. Our growth is accelerating, and it's projected to be the second fastest in the G7 this year and next. So with the resilient economy in the strongest fiscal position in the G7, we have everything we need to pivot and prosper.

3:52Michael Popok:That pivot will come at a cost. There's always a cost to action, but it doesn't come close to the cost of standing still. This is about who we are as Canadians. It's about our livelihoods and the country we leave to our kids. It's about making Canada strong, and it's about the compassion that makes us who we really are. The truth is, adversity only makes us stronger. It always has. We are met, she knew. What we're doing is working, and we're just getting started. Let's keep going. Thank you for your time. I know it's precious. Now, what does Donald Trump do? Well, Donald Trump's running out of moves here.

4:39Michael Popok:So he announced he's going to do some counter countermeasures. He's going to force any federal contract, remove Canadian goods from the contract. He's going to go after alcohol beverage import from Canada and go after motorcycles. You see, he's got very few moves here because the fundamentals of the relationship are really about the power grid. They're really about electric and hydroelectric and the fuel line, Canada fueling a lot of the Midwest, a lot of the Pacific Northwest is fueled. The lights are on because of Canada. That's why Doug Ford, the Ontario Premier, has said, we should just turn off the lights of the United States in this discussion.

5:30Michael Popok:Now, they haven't gone this far, but they're about to. And so when you have a trade war that has reached this boiling point, you would think, all right, cooler heads should be heading to Ottawa or making an invitation for Mark Carney to come to the White House, right? Oh, no. Howard Lutnick, who screwed up the deal to begin with, when at the last minute he tried to push too hard for the auto industry and the steel industry, is on his way to Mexico, apparently, to do the same thing with Claudia Scheinbaum and her economic secretary, Marcelo Eberard. Now, he's already met in the last week, Lutnick, with the Mexicans and the Mexican trade representatives in Chapel Hill, North Carolina, during a G20 breakout session in which they talked about auto manufacturing and steel manufacturing.

6:24Michael Popok:And this is important because you wouldn't know it by watching Donald Trump's economic policy, but there is an agreement between the United States, Mexico, and Canada. It's known as the USMCA, right, that is supposed to govern trade, including the manufacturing of automobiles. Now, GM and Ford and other major auto manufacturers, they rely on Mexico and on Canada for component parts, for supply chain, and for manufacturing and building of their vehicles. In fact, GM and Ford can't do it without Mexico and Canada. So what could go wrong with Howard Lutnick heading down to Mexico? Here's Howard Lutnick on Canada, and then I'll play a clip of Howard Lutnick on Mexico.

7:12Michael Popok:Play the clips. Friday at 4 o 'clock, the Canadians call and say they start adding crazy ideas to the mix. And we said, what are you doing? And I said to one of the ministers, are you actually trying to blow this up? And his answer to me was, I'm not allowed to say that. And they blew it up for political reasons only. So if you're going to mess with the United States of America and its economy, and you're right adjacent to our northern border, I think it was really disrespectful. We were treated disrespectfully. And I think when you treat Donald Trump disrespectfully, you know, he knows it. And that's what happened.

7:51They did it for politics. They're going to do it through their elections in Quebec. And then they have an election in Alberta. And after October 12th, all of a sudden, the Canadians are going to treat us respectfully because their elections will be behind them. It's just, it's sad. If you're from my perspective, it's just sad the way Canada's treated us.

8:09Michael Popok:Are you going to renegotiate that free trade deal, the USMCA? I think the president is absolutely going to renegotiate USMCA, but that's a year from today. Exactly. Today, of course, 75 % comes in free, but of course, should you expect us to renegotiate it? It makes perfect sense for the president to renegotiate it. He wants to protect American jobs. He doesn't want cars built in Canada or Mexico when they could be built in Michigan and Ohio. It's just better for American workers. The president's got the American workers back. That's why they elected him. That's why the stock market's at all time highs.

8:47They understand the president actually understands business and is doing it the right way.

8:52Michael Popok:But that just shows you how perverse this administration is. They treat Canada like crap. They act like they don't need, I mean, literally Donald Trump said, we don't need Canada. I mean, I don't know what economics class he fell asleep in, but that is completely untrue. We've got a trade agreement which replaced the North American Free Trade Agreement between the United States, Mexico and Canada that Donald Trump's in violation of. He's trying to use these other powers of the president, these Section 338 tariffs in order to, because he's running out of moves against the Canadians. And in the meantime, Carney's telling his people and telling the Canadians, we're in for a rough ride here, but there is no alternative.

9:37Michael Popok:And that's obvious. At the end, if Canada squeezes the United States at the same time that Mexico does, we're toast. And that's why they're sending Lutnick, but he's like a bull in the China shop. Does anybody really think that the US negotiating position with Mexico led by Howard Lutnick is in a better position than it was before they started their fight with Canada? Or is Mexico and Claudia Scheinbaum in a better leverage position to squeeze America hard, knowing that they're already in the fight with Canada? I mean, if these are the cards that have been dealt to President Scheinbaum of Mexico, she's going to play it to the hilt, and she should.

10:17Michael Popok:So tail between his legs, completely compromised, Howard Lutnick going down to Mexico. And you know who's watching all of this on the sidelines, China. We've got new reporting that China is out selling the rest of the world on, if you want a stable trading partner and you want billions of dollars invested in your infrastructure, come to China. We are obviously more stable than that guy in the White House. Yes, we've reached the point now where Donald Trump is effectively a walking commercial for Chinese trade. I'm crazy. China is not, at least in this scenario. And so people are turning to China.

11:00Michael Popok:Canada has turned towards China as a legitimate and stable, operative word, stable trading partner. Well, what did Donald Trump and his administration think was going to happen when the State Department under Marco Rubio closed all of his global consulates and embassies, terminated U.S. aid around the world. Where did he think those countries were going to go? To the waiting arms of China. If you ever traveled throughout the Caribbean, you'll see major infrastructure projects, ports, bridges, tunnels, roads built by the Chinese. we have completely abdicated and left the region of Central and South America and the Caribbean and the Chinese have stepped in and they're doing it again with our what what is supposed to be our NATO and other trading allies every time we burn a bridge China's there to pick up the pieces and say we're the stable trade trading partner with you know a trillion trillions and trillions of dollars of an economy that you can have access to.

12:10Michael Popok:Hooray. Great job, Trump. America first. He's made China first. He's making Canada first. He's making Mexico first. I'll continue to follow it. A lot of updates here. I'm traveling. I'll be back behind my microphone in Miami in about two or three hours. Stay here on Legal AF. Hit that free subscribe button. Until my next report, this is Michael Fopak.

12:37Michael Popok:Substack. Every time we mention something in a hot take, whether it's a court filing or a oral argument, come over to the Substack. You'll find the court filing and the oral argument there, including a daily roundup that I do call, wait for it, Morning AF. What else? All the other contributors from Legal AF are there as well. We got some new reporting. We got interviews. We got ad-free versions of the podcast and hot takes where Legal AF on Substack. Come over now to free subscribe.

From the publisher

Trump has run out of moves against a unified, Mark Carney-led Canada and is forced to run to Mexico for a bailout, as China picks up trillions in new deals by offering the world a “stable” trading partner. Popok makes sense of it all in his latest hot take.
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