Mailbag: The Most Cutthroat Below-the-Line Oscar Races and What's Going on With the New Casting Category

0:01Hey, Little Gold Men listeners, especially the ones across the pond. We're recording a Little Gold Men episode live in London on the evening of February 19th with the cast of Sentimental Value. We've got a select number of tickets to give out to our listeners. So if you'd like to join the fun, email us at littlegoldmen at vf.com. We hope to see you there.

0:31Hello and welcome to Little Gold Men, Vanity Fair's podcast for film, TV, and awards lovers. I'm Rebecca Ford. And I'm John Ross. John, do you have a good Thanksgiving? I had a wonderful Thanksgiving with family and friends in Los Angeles. How was yours? It was good. I was up in the Bay Area with family. I had a very nice time. But now we have to get back to work. There's a lot happening in December. And first of all, I really want to let everyone know that we're going to be recording a Little Gold Men live episode in Santa Monica on December 11th at 6 p.m. And we have a very special guest, Train Dream star Joel Edgerton.

1:08So if you live in Los Angeles and you want to come watch the magic happen live in person, you can send us an email at littlegoldmen at vf.com. We've got a select number of tickets to give away to our loyal and lovely listeners. Yeah, I'm really looking forward to that one. And that film, Train Dreams, and Joel's performance keeps gaining momentum. So we're excited to talk to him. And then there's a little cocktail party afterwards. So you're not just listening to us. You also get a little drink and food, which when you're in award season in Los Angeles is very important. And now that it's December, we're really in it.

1:46We are seeing a big acceleration in the Oscar race. Yeah, it feels like there's something every day. This week we had the Gotham Awards, the New York Film Critics Circle Awards, and the Indie Spirit nomination. So the awards picture is coming into clear focus. And John, you got to, you're in New York, so you got to go to Gotham's on Monday, right? Yes. And in some ways I'm still there. It's a very long night. Right, because it's not televised, so it can go on forever. Oh no, it's not televised. And it's not anywhere in a state to be televised. It was an interesting night. I mean, listen, I think for Shafar Panahi, he won three awards.

2:27That has put him in what I believe a locked spot for director, on top of which, like, the night that he wins three awards, he's also given this sort of bizarre one-year prison sentence by his home country of Iran for creating propaganda against the Iranian political system. He's already served time in an Iranian prison. This film, It Was Just an Accident, is about serving time in an Iranian prison for political propaganda. So, like, all of that combined with the three speeches, you know, I just feel like there's so much goodwill for him. Plus, he won the bomb tour. plus it's a really great film.

3:15So it's a strange show. I mean, people are on stage talking, Rebecca, and like the entire room is just having conversations at the table. Oh, my God. That would make me so uncomfortable. It's like a dull roar. Like, I mean, at one point I sort of thought somebody was going to be like, hey, people, quiet down, because it was getting like so loud. I was in the back too where, you know, they stick the press, But it was an interesting long night. I think it's pretty unprecedented, unusual for a film to win three awards at this relatively short list. So that feels pretty notable, I think, especially for Panahi to win screenplay, which I was, I think, most surprised by.

3:59I mean, it's a great film, but I didn't think that was a category that it was really playing in because it is so stacked with other writers competing there. And also important to note that each award is voted on by a separate jury. I see. So that does show a cross-section of, you know, support that's pretty loud. And then the big winner of the night was One Battle After Another, which was a surprise, honestly, because they were really awarding much smaller profile films throughout the night. but that then sort of like brought you back to reality where you were like, okay, well, now this is like seeming closer to like what we're going to see Oscar night.

4:41Yeah, I mean, obviously Gotham's used to be about honoring sort of smaller movies and I know it was surprising for One Battle to win but I thought that was kind of a boring choice because it is such a front runner already. I think there was an opportunity here to give a different film some sort of boost but, you know, they didn't. They gave it to One Battle. This would have been a nice time for a film like If I Had Legs, I Would Kick You to get something, you know. The vibe in the room was like people were a little confused by what it is that we're watching on stage. Because the mix of the predetermined awards and then the awards that are voted on by these juries are just very different.

5:29They're done very differently. and so it just creates something that doesn't feel like it has enough shape or form. Well, we'll talk about all the other awards nominations that are filtering in next week, including New York Film Critics Circle and Indie Spirits. There's also the Golden Globe noms happening next week and Critics' Choice nominations. So we're going to have a lot to catch up with next week. Today on the show, we've sorted through our inbox and we're going to answer some great listener questions about this award season and more. Thank you guys so much for sending in such great questions.

6:04Yes. And we're also going to be sharing our top picks for the must-watch films hitting theaters this month. Most importantly, we're joined by our colleague, VF Senior Editor, Hilary Buses. Hi, Hilary. Most importantly, every time I feel like you guys are raising the bar on how I'm introduced, and I appreciate the deference. Bit by bit. One day, one day you'll be the closest. friend to Little Gold Met. Yes. I think eventually we'll just have to call you Ms. Buses and be very formal with you or something. Buses if you're nasty. We'll go all the way around to like, I'm too important. Yes. Yes. Your royalty eventually.

6:45Are you guys ready to dig in? John, maybe you could read the first one for us. Yes. So this first one comes from listener KM, mysterious. I'm writing to ask what you think about the chances of Mona Fastfold's The Testament of Ann Lee. I know it's early in the season and we know very little about it, but this is one of the potential contenders I'm most intrigued by and I'm hoping is really big. I think it will be a front runner with 9 to 11 nominations. Related to your discussion of the best director race in the latest episode, I think Chloe Zhao, Hamnet, is a lock for a nomination. And if The Testament of Ann Lee is popular, I believe that would include a nomination for directing.

7:26Yes, I am predicting 2016 to be the first time two women are nominated for directing in the same year. What are your thoughts? Well, Cam, I don't want to burst your bubble, but I feel like you should not put money on Anne Lee getting 9 to 11 nominations. That's a lot. That is a lot. That's a lot. I will caveat this with Anne Lee is one of maybe the only major contenders that I haven't seen yet. So I cannot judge it on its own merits, but I can judge the buzz around it. it just doesn't seem anything like what The Brutalist had last year in terms of momentum. Well, I think they're doing something different with it.

8:05So Marty Supreme was like the late entry with the Christmas Day. Which is doing it Timmy style. That's what they did. Except they played it at New York Film Festival. So what they ended up doing was they screened it earlier, this is actually truly the last film to be screening. It's coming out Christmas Day, and they're holding it pretty tight. So I think that's part of it. I think they want to be the last film that people see. I personally love this film. It's nutty. But I don't think in the directing race, which is so crowded this year. I think it'll be tough for Mona to get in there. Yeah, it's a tight race for director.

8:56It's funny because like months ago, I was like two women are definitely gonna get in. Yeah, I remember. But I was not talking about Mona at the time. But now, I mean, Chloe Zhao is a lock. So there will be at least one woman in my opinion. But Anne Lee played at Toronto where John and I saw it. Right. And at Venice. Yeah, she got this huge standing ovation at Venice. At Venice. So it's not a total unknown because a lot of us have seen it. And I think the musical aspects of this movie are truly incredible. And Amanda Seyfried is doing a really wonderful performance. But to me, it is a little uneven.

9:33It is a little long. I don't know if that is going to maybe turn some voters off. So it's definitely not a 9 to 11 nominations lock. I could see it being like a Nyad. Like it's going to get actress, but how much else is it going to? No, this is a stronger film than Nyad. Okay. It's much better than Nyad. This is an ambitious film. I think that there's a world where like production design and stuff. I mean, also it was made on this very small budget, but it doesn't look like that. And also there's the musical element of it. And they played like one of the songs last night at the Gotham Awards. and it was like in my head on the whole way home.

10:14So you want to give us a couple bars? You're forgetting it? Well, that's not a strong endorsement. It's like I long for the, when she's singing. It has an incredible melody. Like you leave the theater singing it. It's like I sing for the da-da-da-da-da. When they're in the ship coming to America, it's like the song that plays throughout the whole thing where she's talking about her connection to God. It's such an interesting film. I mean, I think we can't count out what Fox Searchlight will be able to do with this film. They're incredible at releases. That first trailer was really, really well done.

10:46It kind of revealed exactly what you're signing up for with that film. So I think we have to wait and see how they run the rest of this campaign. But they really know what they're doing when it comes to a film that may not be necessarily a, you know, wide hit, but will find its audience. They know how to do that. So I think in summary, we're saying, let's wait and see KM. Probably not 9 to 11 nominations, but it is fair to call it a real contender. Hillary, you want to read the next one for us? You know what? I would really love to. This one is from Jeff. I've been enjoying Ethan Hawke's performance in Hulu's The Lowdown, and he's obviously in the Oscar discussion for Blue Moon this year.

11:26Jeremy Allen White and Rose Byrne have been lauded on the small screen this year as well, though in less buzzy shows, The Bear and Platonic. How much do you think coinciding small screen performances help or hinder an Oscar race? Helen Hunt and Helen Mirren each won Emmys and Oscars within the same year. Plenty of performers, including Robert Downey Jr., Melissa McCarthy, Lily Gladstone, Jodie Foster, and Andrew Garfield have been recognized by both the Emmys and the Oscars back to back. How much do you think the lowdown helps Ethan Hawke's chances to break into the Oscar top five? Or do you think it mostly works the other way around with Oscar nods just boosting people's nomination chances come Emmy time?

12:00Jeff, all power to you. I am not sure, much as I am not sure that Anne Lee is going to get 9 to 11 nominations, I am not sure that the lowdown is as much of a big zeitgeisty thing as, say, The Bear. I mean, Platonic is also not, it's an Apple show, so I feel like that kind of says it all. But yeah, I mean, I would say that it's definitely like a fun little trivia fact when an actor has a big ear in both movies and TV. but I feel like I would say that it is more likely to go the other way. Like, do you remember in 2011, Melissa McCarthy won an Emmy? And the Emmy that she won was for the CBS show that she was on at the time, Mike and Molly, but that was the year The Bridesmaids came out, and it really felt like she was winning that Emmy for Bridesmaids, which obviously is a film and not a television show.

12:49And then she was nominated for an Oscar later, which she didn't win, but she had already won the Emmy, so it felt like recognition for this, like, giant, like, seismic performance. I just feel like the Emmys are still very excited when movie stars show up in TV shows. And I just don't think that the Oscars care as much when an actor has a TV show at the same time as a big Oscar performance. Yeah, I think the example I thought about recently was Kieran Culkin and Jeremy Strong both getting nominated sort of after Succession had ended last year. And Kieran won. Yeah. And Kieran won. But he was sort of destined to win.

13:22I mean, he won every single award that season. so I think that because Succession was such a phenomenon and everyone was sad that the show was over and they missed it I think that may have had a little bit of a boost especially to Jeremy Strong for his performance in The Apprentice I agree because that was a much smaller movie yeah exactly and we didn't know how many people had really seen it or felt a passion for it except Sebastian Stan got nominated so they did see it they did see it they liked The Apprentice more than which we should mention maybe it was written by Gabe Sherman via special correspondent.

13:57But like, yeah, the Academy watched it more than I kind of thought that they would. Yeah. But I do think that's probably an example of a boost, but the show has to be such a big show, which the lowdown is not. So it's not, it's good. And I just want to say also, Ethan Hawke is so good in Blue Moon that I feel like that performance should speak for itself. Like it's such a tour de force. He's on screen every minute and he is just giving everything. It's such a transformative performance. So, yeah, I feel like he's my favorite and best actor. He's maybe even a long shot for a nomination because it's a very competitive field.

14:31But if the lowdown helps his chances, then I, yeah, go watch the lowdown, Academy Voters. Yeah, I think that there used to be like way back in the day you were a TV actor or you were a film actor, you know. The lines have blurred. Now you're a TikTok actor. Yeah, the lines are completely non-existent. I mean, there is some, you know, novelty-esque. And like, Timothee Chalamet just gave an interview where he said, like, he's not really interested in doing television. He only wants to do film because he wants to do the story start to finish. And, you know, Jennifer Lawrence still hasn't done TV.

15:07But I mean, so many others have. It's really hard to see one affecting the other too much. unless it's like what you're saying, Rebecca, this sort of attention being paid on you. I mean, Kieran Culkin went from being, you know, a relatively smaller character actor to a star because of succession. Yeah. Yeah, the way I thought that would actually help someone this year was Colin Farrell because he had got so much attention for The Penguin over the last year. And then there was this movie coming out, Ballad of a Small Player. So I thought he might get a similar boost where he's doing back-to-back seasons, essentially.

15:48But that movie, despite his very good performance, has sort of fallen off. So it definitely doesn't always work.

15:58After the break, we'll be back answering more of your award season questions. Stay with us.

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17:51Welcome back to Little Gold Men from Vanity Fair. Let's dive back into your questions with this one from Stuart. I love hearing about the below-the-line categories. Are there any interesting narratives and or unexpected frontrunners in the below-the-line category? Do either of you have a favorite below-the-line category? I'm a big fan of Best Score and really enjoyed the choice to score The Smashing Machine with Jazz, so I hope to see Nala Senefro get recognized. This is a great question. For me, the editing category, when you're watching the Oscars, is incredibly telling. because there's sort of like a so goes the editing, so goes best picture.

18:33And what's interesting, I will say, about maybe below the line this year, and we don't talk that much about it on this podcast, is that I actually think there's going to be a little bit more all-over-the-place noms that don't totally correlate to director, even best picture. Like, for example, in editing, House of Dynamite and F1 are pretty high up there on a lot of prediction lists. But I wouldn't say those two are front runners in the best picture. But because they have such a technicality to them, I think that they could get in there for editing, which will kind of throw off the whole thing that I just said.

19:17Because two of the nominations aren't necessarily going to be so far ahead in the actual Best Picture race, which is interesting and cool. I think there's actually going to be some love spread out through a lot more different films this year. I think you're right. F1 feels very strong there. I think we'll probably see Marty Supreme. I feel like the energy and the editing of that makes it feel very strong in there as well. And then to, of course, confirm John's theory. I think One Battle will likely also be there. Worth noting that for this is frequently true and not always true, but for the past three years at least, Best Picture and Best Editing have gone together.

19:57It's been Anora, Oppenheimer, and everything everywhere all at once. But you see, when Anora won editing last year— That's how you knew that it was going to win. Yeah, I mean, you knew it maybe—I mean, we knew because of all these other things, but that's when I was like, oh, it's done. Because I don't know if you watch Anora necessarily and you're like, you know, wowed by the editing. It's not a ton of tricks, but you can tell that they're— Yeah, it's pretty straightforward narrative. The momentum is like, oh, he created this movie with all these different parts. And so that's what I mean by that, yeah.

20:29The race I'm watching closely is cinematography. I think for several reasons, but especially because the cinematographer of Sinners, Autumn Duralt-Arkapa, is a woman. And only three women have ever been nominated in this category. A Woman Has Never Won, which is like the most embarrassing stat, I think, of Oscar history. And there are a lot of embarrassing stats. Yes. It's a high bar. Yeah. It's a high bar. So I think she'll get in nominated. That film is incredibly shot and really beautiful. But the field is also quite competitive. I think when you look at Hamnet, who has the Polish GP, Wukas Zal, who did Cold War.

21:13I think Train Dreams has incredible cinematography from Aldolfo Veloso. So, and then there's a bunch of like well-known names also in the race, you know, for Frankenstein and Marty Supreme, Jay Kelly and Hedda. So that's gonna be a really interesting race for sure. Yeah, I think Autumn shooting the film with IMAX cameras is, I'm hoping maybe the thing that's gonna put this over the edge and make this embarrassing stat come to an end. But I'm knocking on wood right now. Oh, you literally are. I saw it. Yeah, yeah. Maybe you could hear it. Because I think they've done a very good job of explaining, you know, the shooting on IMAX to the general population.

21:55I mean, obviously, cinematographers who are voting in the category know all about that. So I think I'm with you, Rebecca. I'm hoping that this is the year to end that very embarrassing statistic. I think maybe I will choose makeup and hairstyling, which is always a fun category to watch. It's fun the way that it is presented at the Oscars sometimes. I like when you actually get to see the hair and makeup close up. I mean, remember when they used to do that thing with the costumes where they would have the people, like models, standing on the stage wearing them? I feel like they should do that with.

22:29They always do random stuff for costume, yes. Yes, and for hair and makeup, I think that they should make like Conan O 'Brien look like Jacob Elordi Frankenstein or something. That's funny. This is a free idea for you, Conan O 'Brien. I know that you're listening. but yeah it's just it's an opportunity for more of the period stuff musicals often do well here anything that is very big and elaborate and yeah so there's something like Sinners that's probably a front runner in this category because it's a period piece it's also like a serious best picture contender but then there's something like Frankenstein which maybe is not going to be as competitive above the line but clearly has a lot going on in terms of production design and costume and hair and makeup so So I think that, yeah, there's an opportunity in this to award something that might otherwise kind of not get a lot of love at the Oscars.

23:20Yeah, the Smashing Machine, as we've said, is not really competing other than I think for Dwayne Johnson. But here, I mean, Kazuhiro did help transform The Rock and he's so beloved that I feel like that this is a place we could definitely see it pop up as well. And Begonia too. I mean, Emma Stone looks amazing and otherworldly, and I feel like there could be some recognition for her as well. They give it to hair for shaving it all off. Also, actually, if you watch Marty Supreme, they do some stuff with— they ruined Timothy's beautiful skin. Oh, yeah, his little pimples. Yeah, yeah, they put pimples on his skin, and they did some stuff with his eyes that he's talked about.

24:07Yeah, there's some interesting makeup in there, too, that maybe flies a little under the radar because it's done so well that it just looks very natural. Yeah, I think that they, I mean, the Academy recognizes the big I sat in a makeup chair for eight hours type of work the most. The substance one last year, for instance. But it's hard because, I mean, it's hard to deny it, you know, like the level of work that goes into stuff like that. but it is nice to see when other films utilize hair and makeup in subtler ways. But ultimately, like the night of the Academy Awards, it's usually going to the biggest amount of work.

24:52Most hair and makeup rather than necessarily. I think it might be Frankenstein, right? Yeah. I mean, we know Jacob has sat in the chair for like 72 consecutive hours. Every time he does a Q &A, it's getting longer and longer and longer. I was in the chair for four weeks. Well, no, John, how could you forget? They had to apply straw individually, pieces of straw to Jonathan Bailey's face for days and days on Wicked for Good. All of it practical effects. I think the chance is in nominations, something settler gets in there, but for the win, it is usually the big flashy one. Yeah, looking back at this list, you have to go back a few years to find a recent winner that was in the more subtle category, like Ma Rainey's Black Bottom one, and that's, you know, just very solid period era hair and makeup stuff.

25:39Did Poor Things win? Poor Things did win. Yeah. And that is a lot. That's a lot. Well. It's not prosthetics, I guess. It's not prosthetics. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Well, except for Willem Dafoe. All right. Well, I take it all back. And I love, actually, there's a moment. Somebody took video of Emma Stone, like, backstage. I think when they won, she was, like, at the bar and she realized that they were winning and she was like, oh, my God, and she runs away. Oh, yeah, she runs. The actors, that's their people. Right. They come in that morning. When you're spending eight hours in a chair. They come in that morning and the first person they see is hair and makeup.