In short
The hosts and guests discuss how to predict 2026 Emmy nominations, focusing on the difficulty of forecasting (season eligibility, limited precursor awards, streaming viewership opacity, and variable nominee counts). They then run through predicted nominees across drama, comedy, and limited series categories.
Guests
Hilary Busez (TV/awards pundit; Emmy voter in some categories) and Savannah Walsh (TV/awards pundit; Emmy voter for certain reality/game-show-related categories).
Key claims
Emmys are easier than Oscars/Globes because fewer shows recur; harder because voters may not watch the correct season and nominee counts vary by submissions. Apple/streaming data is often unclear. “The Bear” is expected to be nominated less in comedy due to confusion about which season voters are honoring.
Notable examples
Drama locks include The Pit and Pluribus; lead actress favorites include Keri Russell (The Diplomat) and Ray Sehorne (Pluribus). Comedy series includes Abbott Elementary, Hacks, Only Murders in the Building, and a debated pick for Widow’s Bay. Limited series contenders include Beef, Love Story, DTF St. Louis, and Death by Lightning.
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Chapters
Tap a time to open that second in VOThe Difficulty of Emmy Predictions
0:11 to 0:34
Exploring the challenges and nuances of predicting Emmy nominations.
“I fall asleep faster, stay asleep longer, and wake up feeling truly rested.”
The Difficulty of Emmy Predictions
1:40 to 2:59
Exploring the challenges and nuances of predicting Emmy nominations.
“it is to make Emmy nomination predictions.”
Understanding the Nomination Process
3:01 to 4:51
Dive into how the Emmy nomination process works and its complexities.
“But I do find it easier than the Oscars and Globes because we have only a finite number of shows that the Academy tends to go for every year.”
Discussing Potential Drama Nominees
4:53 to 7:40
Predictions and discussions about nominees for the drama categories.
“And then I'm really curious about the ballot because, you know, I was predicting one of the directing categories for drama.”
Lead Actress and Actor Predictions
7:43 to 10:40
Analyzing predictions for lead actress and actor categories in drama.
“Well, one thing I'm wondering also is The Testaments, I feel, you know, Handmaid's Tale was very celebrated, arguably after it necessarily deserved as many nominations as it got.”
Supporting Actress Predictions
10:41 to 14:00
Exploring predictions for the supporting actress category in drama.
“But speaking of euphoria, I predicted Outstanding Lead Actress in Drama Series, and I did put Zendaya as getting a nomination.”
Predictions for Emmy Nominations
14:00 to 18:28
The hosts discuss their predictions for the Emmy nominations, focusing on various shows and performances.
“But do you really think that they're going to vote for Julianne Nicholson?”
Comedy Series Nominees Discussion
19:37 to 23:11
The hosts delve into the nominees for outstanding comedy series and their predictions.
“John, you predicted outstanding comedy series.”
Lead Acting Categories Predictions
23:12 to 28:00
A detailed discussion on predictions for lead actress and actor in a comedy series.
“You know, Lisa Kudrow is obviously going to get nominated.”
Campaigning and Show Recommendations
28:00 to 29:00
Discussing actors' campaigning efforts and recommending new shows.
“Because none of these actors really did that much campaigning this season.”
Show all 19 chapters
Predictions for Supporting Actress in a Comedy
29:00 to 31:00
Analyzing predictions for the Outstanding Supporting Actress category.
“I've got last year's winner, Hannah Einbinder, coming back for the final season of Hacks.”
Supporting Actor Predictions and Insights
31:00 to 34:00
Diving into predictions for Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series.
“Because I think Meg Stalter can be a polarizing performance.”
Transition to Break
34:00 to 34:10
Preparing for a break before discussing limited series.
“So I think it will be a nod towards that, too.”
Predictions for Limited Series and Notable Performances
35:16 to 38:20
Examining predictions for limited series and standout performances.
“Let's wrap things up with the limited series predictions.”
Lead Actor Predictions in Limited Series
38:20 to 42:06
Discussing predictions for the Lead Actor category in limited series.
“But I am surprised there wasn't sort of more awareness about it because everyone seems to love it.”
Emmy Predictions for Limited Series
42:06 to 44:30
Discussion on predictions for limited series Emmy nominations, focusing on various actors and shows.
“And so they're going to keep going up and down on their ballot and being like, where's the guy who's like from.”
Supporting Actress Predictions
44:31 to 46:39
A deep dive into the potential nominees for Supporting Actress in a Limited Series, analyzing performances.
“Supporting Actress in a limited series, my predictions.”
Supporting Actor Predictions
46:40 to 49:14
Exploration of predictions for the Outstanding Supporting Actor category, discussing various candidates.
“I think Charles Melton from Beef, speaking of which, will make it in.”
Variety Series Predictions and History
49:15 to 52:08
Insights into the Outstanding Variety Series category, its history, and predictions for this year's nominees.
“All right, there's obviously a ton more Emmy categories.”
Transcript
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1:26we think will be nominated for Emmys. And here to help us out, we're joined by a panel of experts, Hilary Busez and Savannah Walsh. Hey, everybody. Hello, thanks for having us. Welcome back, you guys. I want to start by asking how hard you think it is to make Emmy nomination predictions. Does it feel harder than Oscars or Globes or even Tonys? Where does this rank on the scale of difficulty? I would say there are ways in which it's harder and there's ways in which it's easier because the Emmys do love to kind of nominate the same things over and over, as we know, because TV is a continuing medium.
2:01There's not something new every single year necessarily, except for in like the limited series category. And sometimes not even then. Yes, exactly. And so they've proved that they like the bear. They've proved that they like hacks. There are certain shows that are going to show up in several categories again this year, as they have every year for the past five. And so in that sense, it's easier. But I think that there are also kind of less obvious breakthrough things that you don't necessarily even know are contenders until the nominations get announced. And there are kind of word of mouth hits.
2:33And I'm expecting a few of those to break through this year as well.
2:36Savannah Walsh:I think the tricky thing every year with the Emmys is remembering which season of television we're honoring. Because often, you know, especially with the Bear, the release schedule is so off. We're like a season behind them always. So I always find that to be the most difficult aspect because The Bear, for instance, could be coming off of a really strong season, but the season that we're talking about was weaker. So that's typically what I find the most difficult. But I do find it easier than the Oscars and Globes because we have only a finite number of shows that the Academy tends to go for every year.
3:09But there aren't a million precursor awards. Correct. Yeah.
3:12Savannah Walsh:We're not super tired of seeing the same people get up and give speeches with Emmys. Well. Speak for yourself. They were still giving awards to adolescents somehow until like last month. Like that show just kept winning things. The BAFTA TV was the end of adolescence and I thought of you. Thank you. I was like, finally, Owen Cooper can go away. I actually think the Emmys are the hardest to predict. I don't count the Golden Globes because to predict 300 members is impossible. But I sort of go by the like how many people watch this. Which is also information that can be impossible to know because streamers won't tell you.
3:52Right. Yes. Although we know more than we did five years ago between like Nielsen and Netflix now does sort of let you know what is popular. If it's a hit, yeah. Yeah. But if it's not a hit, then I just assume it's not happening. The biggest one is like Apple, right? We never know the data from Apple unless it's Ted Lasso. And you'll see in my predictions, I have some wild cards on here that I'm probably wrong, but I'm sticking with my gut. Yeah. And then the other weird thing about Emmy nominations is that the number of nominees varies by year. So for the main categories, drama, comedy, they always have eight nominees.
4:36But the rest of the categories are determined by how many submissions there are. So you have to wait until the list of submissions comes out and then you can calculate based on the number of submissions how many nominees there will be. Which you did for us. Yes. Thank you, Rebecca. Thank you for your service. I'm imagining you drawing on the window like John Nash in A Beautiful Mind. Yeah, pretty much how it feels. And then I'm really curious about the ballot because, you know, I was predicting one of the directing categories for drama. And, you know, Noah Wiley directed an episode, but I didn't know if it says it's Noah Wiley.
5:15Like, I feel like a voter would probably vote for that if they knew it. But I know, John, you're a voter. So do you know if it includes the name of like the director? Because I'm curious if that sways voting in any way. Yes. I'm a voter, but I don't get to vote in that category. I'm in a weird peer group where I vote on a lot of different types of game show hosts. Are you in like the Bravo Liberty Guild? If only. John's dream. I'm in like a daytime news. I don't know. And then I get like a random category assigned to me. And also like random, I get to vote on the reality stuff. And it's like, I don't understand what Bravo submits or doesn't submit because Potomac, I mean, now we're going off.
6:03Now he's getting in the weeds. Potomac wasn't up for a nomination. And I thought this season when they got Lost in the Woods was the funniest thing I saw on TV all year. So it's a bit of a confusing nominating process. which is why I think it is so easy for people to, let's say, click on the bear over and over and over and over again because— They've heard of it. Yeah.
6:32All right. I think we're ready to jump in. Let's start with the nominees for drama, and I'll just list what I did, and then you guys can tell me how right I am. Okay, I chose The Diplomat, Paradise, The Pit, Pluribus, Slow Horses, Stranger Things, Task, and The Testaments. And I will say, even reading this right now, I'm like doubting my own choices. But I do think there are quite a few locks. Like, I think we all feel like this may be a race between The Pit and maybe Pluribus to win here. You know, The Diplomat, Paradise, and Slow Horses have been nominated quite a bit in the past, and I feel like are still on quite solid ground.
7:13I think that this season of The Diplomat was probably stronger than the last one. The Diplomat is one of those shows that I think most of the people who watched are Emmy voters. Like, it's a good show. It's a fun network-style throwback on Netflix. It's kind of like an old-school Shonda Rhimes show, but you don't hear people talking about it very much among the hoi polloi, I would say. Yeah. Look, I would give Keri Russell every Emmy if I... Of course. If I were in charge. She should have, like, six Emmys for The American. if we could somehow go back in time. And I do think that helps her campaign with The Diplomat is people do feel like she was robbed.
7:47Totally. Yeah, it does, yeah. Well, one thing I'm wondering also is The Testaments, I feel, you know, Handmaid's Tale was very celebrated, arguably after it necessarily deserved as many nominations as it got. The Testaments is a spinoff of that show. I guess it feels timely for that reason. I just feel like the reaction to that is kind of muted. And I mean, maybe it's just in my circles and John certainly in your circles, but do you think that The Gilded Age has any hope of breaking through into the big category this year? I know. The Testaments was the one I kept putting on and off this list.
8:17I think it is the least secure in my list. I would love The Gilded Age to be on here. I think that is very possible. It's just one of those shows I can't grasp if it's just like the people I'm around love it and not enough people are watching it or not. I just don't know. They keep renewing it. They do. What The Testaments has going for it is that it's its first season. So what happens is as you go on, if you haven't watched a show, you feel like you can't catch up, right? And so first season shows have a little bit of a preference, I think, because it's easier for people. Yeah, there's a lower barrier to entry.
9:00And you're like, well, I saw the pilot or I saw the first episode. whereas like in the Gilded Age at this point either you're watching the Gilded Age, you got the flu and you caught up on the Gilded Age or you didn't watch the Gilded Age and you know about it but you know you didn't take it on as a show.
9:16Savannah Walsh:It did get nominated a few years ago so maybe it'll come back. I don't know from your perspective once a show makes it in is it harder or easier for it to get back? I would assume it's easier to be re-nominated. I would say so. I think that that was a vote of confidence. Yeah totally. I will say that The Testaments has had a pretty aggressive FYC campaign, at least in L.A. Like, I do see it everywhere. So I always consider that a little bit where the Gilded Age, they're out there. But you can tell that the Hulu team wants the Testaments to get this nomination. Yeah. And I mean, I guess the Oscars have a very international voting body now, but the Emmys do not.
9:51Like, the Emmys are concentrated on the coasts. And if you can reach voters in those places, it's probably going to boost your chances.
9:59Savannah Walsh:Am I going to be the first person to bring up Euphoria? First and last, Savannah. I don't think Euphoria will be nominated here, but I think it is interesting that it's the final season of a show that did get a lot of nominations for its first two seasons. I mean, so did Stranger Things. That's true. It's on my list, Hilary. It's on the list, but I'm just saying no one's excited about it. I do think it makes sense that it would get into that category, but I think it's days of winning Emmys might be behind because the finale landed with such a thud. And Euphoria has had a more rocky road with the Emmys, except for Zendaya.
10:35Savannah Walsh:For sure. I don't see it getting in. I think there are other shows that are on the bubble that have a much better chance. But speaking of euphoria, I predicted Outstanding Lead Actress in Drama Series, and I did put Zendaya as getting a nomination. The two that I believe are, you know, locks in this category, I believe, are Ray Sehorne for Pluribus and Keri Russell for The Diplomat. And then I did do Carrie Coon for The Gilded Age. And then the one that's on the bubble, but she was nominated last year, but I don't believe anyone really watches this show in the Academy, is Kathy Bates for Matlock.
11:18But you know who does watch it? A lot of people on CBS. Yes, but I'm not positive that that is a crossover with voters. But the people that are on the bubble outside of that would be Chase Infinity for The Testaments, Jennifer Aniston for Morning Show. And then they've done a very big campaign for Michelle Pfeiffer for The Madison, and she is Michelle Pfeiffer. But they've never given any love to Taylor Sheridan shows. And I don't think it'll happen this year either. Should we move on to actor in a drama series? Yeah, go for it. OK, so I was predicting these. I'll just run down them in alphabetical order.
12:01I'm going to predict Sterling K. Brown for Paradise. Gary Oldman for every dad's favorite show, Slow Horses. Mark Ruffalo for Task. Rufus Seawolf for The Diplomat. And Noah Wiley for The Pit. I mean, I feel like he's just going to win again and everybody else is kind of lining up for second place. But yeah, there are some other possibilities in this. Walton Goggins was in a second season of Fallout and that's an Amazon show based on a video game. It just doesn't feel as sticky as his work on season three of The White Lotus, which he did get nominated for. I feel like the Academy likes The Diplomat a lot.
12:37And I just think that Rufus is going to get in there because of that. So, yeah, these are the people who are going to lose to Noah Wiley. Yeah. Maybe Jon Hamm gets in there for your friends and neighbors. Maybe, but at Apple shows, like you said, are always kind of on the bubble. It's so hard. Yeah. I feel like the Landman push has been very strong. Like, could Billy Bob Thornton get in here for season two? But again, yeah, they have a block around Taylor Sheridan, like you said, Jon. They really do. I think so. So I wouldn't have put him on there. And yes, they're all going to lose to Noah Wiley.
13:08Okay. Okay, next up, we've got supporting actress in a drama, which is a really fun category because there is a world in which every single female ensemble member of the bit gets a nomination. That is an unlikely world for Catherine Lanasa, who won last year, Taylor Dearden and Issa Briones and Sapita Moafi. Yeah, all of them aren't going to get in. I think that Catherine Lanasa and Taylor Dearden both feel like safe bets, which you guys agree there. And then in non-Pitt land, I mean, Alison Janney is in The Diplomat 2. The Academy loves Alison Janney. They like that show. She seems like a pretty safe bet.
13:48I think that there's a lot of love for Pluribus, even though it is, as we said, an Apple show of all the Apple shows. That seems like, oh, my God, John, you're shaking your head. No, I think it could be four actresses from The Pit and Alison Janney. That would be wild. It would be wild. But do you really think that they're going to vote for Julianne Nicholson? I mean, I know that they love her. I don't know if she gets in. They just, they haven't watched Paradise. When you look at your ballot, you're going to be like, wait a second. I haven't watched any of these shows except the thing. That's the problem that the Emmys have in general.
14:24The Oscars, they're like, you have to watch this. But there's so much TV. And so then you're going to look at it and you're going to be like, Like, well, the pit? I'm going to guess four pit actresses, plus Carolina Widra from Pluribus, then Julianne Nicholson for Paradise, and Allison Janney from The Diplomats. I think you're right. And Paradise, it's funny because for the first season, I was like, I don't think this is an Emmy show. And then it actually got quite a few nominations. So I think people who predict this stuff are taking it much more seriously. But I do think the second season hasn't been as popular as the first.
15:00But it's Julianne Nicholson. Actors love her. They do. And she was on so many shows. She pops up on Hacks. She has like a little arc on everything. She won for Mare of Easttown for one scene. People love her. Right. I'm trying to think if there's any, I mean. This is the only world in which industry gets an acting nom. Marissa Bella did do a campaign. She's out and about. I mean, she's really good on the show. So this will be like a litmus test to see how many voters actually have watched the show will be if she can sneak in for industry. But again, those Pitt actresses. There's so many of them.
15:41There's so many of them. And I think we're in for another Pitt deluge in Supporting Actor.
15:46Savannah Walsh:Yeah, I've got quite a few of the Pitt actors in my predictions as well. I've got Patrick Ball for The Pit, Sean Hittosi for The Pit, Garen Howell for The Pit, Tom Pelfrey for Task, Billy Crudup for The Morning Show, Jack Loudon for Slow Horses, and Ken Leung for Industry. I am—I love Industry. I think the season was really good. And I think Ken Leung's character had a really standout episode. He's great. And his character gets, you know, kind of a swan song episode that I'm assuming he submitted. So that's by kind of pie in the sky. I think the pit's going to be really well represented. Tom Pelfrey, it steals a lot of the scenes in Task.
16:25Savannah Walsh:I know you've spoke with him, Rebecca, and I think he's really strong here. And then Billy Crudup and Jack Loudon, I think, just show up in this category almost every year. Two Apple shows and Apple performances. But what else are you guys thinking when you look at this category? I feel like this category will actually be really fun to watch for who wins because I feel like maybe Tom could even beat all these pit people. No, they'll give it to Patrick Ball. The numbers on the pit are undeniable. Yes. Yeah. It's true. HBO is going to have all but, what, two in this category probably? Well, but when they have a season of Boy Lotus, it ends up like that too.
16:58It's true. It's a good thing for the pit that there wasn't a season of that this year. I got to say, people still care about the morning show. He's on the bubble too. Like, hasn't Billy Crudup been giving this performance for years and years? So I love the morning show. Love the morning show. Oh, I watch every episode too.
17:12Savannah Walsh:I can't say I love doing it. You're a resident expert, Savannah, yes. I think it's like the best nighttime soap. It's insane what happens on the morning show. It is the craziest show on television. I will say, though, Billy has a slightly smaller role this year. Yeah. He has like some bigger scenes maybe, but his role is slightly diminished as he's no longer working for the network. But I don't think that matters because, again, they sort of vote based on, like, the actor. And, like, they've seen him on the show and whether or not they've stayed with the show to this current season is questionable.
18:03and whether they just vote for him based on the character and that it's Billy Crudup, or do they genuinely reflect on his work in the current season? And it's really hard to tell. So I agree with you, Savannah. I think he gets in there, and I think that'll be the acting nom for The Morning Show this year. All right, I think we should take a quick break. And when we get back, we'll dive into the nominees for comedy. Thank you.
19:03the industry like Calvin Klein, Daniel Roseberry, and Jonathan Anderson. On Thursdays, join head of editorial content at Vogue, Chloe Mal, and head of editorial content at British Vogue, Chomanadi, as they explore style and culture through the lens of fashion with guests like Martha Stewart, Kamala Harris, and Tracee Ellis Ross. The Run Through with Vogue, new episodes every Tuesday and Thursday, wherever you get your podcasts.
19:37Welcome back to Little Gold Men. Let's dive into the comedy categories. John, you predicted outstanding comedy series. You want to go through them for us? Yes. Abbott Elementary, The Comeback, Hacks, Nobody Wants This, The 600th Season of Only Murders in the Building, Rooster, Shrinking, and this is my big one. I think Widow's Bay might get in. I think you're right. I think that there's a groundswell of support for that show, especially now, like, in the thick of voting season. I think that it has climbed up enough in people's estimation and that it's like a word of mouth thing. Rebecca doesn't agree with me.
20:19I was on the fence because I was wondering if the groundswell was a little too late. Like, I felt like a lot of people I know were starting to watch it as voting had already started, but it could have also been the perfect timing if it was the last thing they watched before they voted. So to me, I'm not sure it gets the spot. I feel like I would have put Margot's Got Money Troubles in because I talked to a lot of people who really liked the show. I really liked that show. I think it has a lot of support, but I don't know. Well, so I didn't predict the bear. Right. And I didn't predict Margot's Got Money Troubles.
20:55And instead I put Widow's Bay and Rooster. I think Rooster has a lot of word of mouth support too, though. I think I'm with you there. Yeah, me too. Yeah. And I have to believe at this point that we all agree that the bear is not a comedy. And we must end this conversation. Well, this is one of the last years that it can be. Maybe. There's still one more season next year where people are going to be real confused. And then I snubbed Margo's Got Money Troubles. But I'm probably wrong about that. I wanted to put Widow's Bay in there and I had to futz around with what to take out. And I think that there's a chance maybe, I don't know if you guys have seen it, but it's very weird.
21:40It's very weird. It is, but it appeals to critics and nerds. And I'm sure that they're, I don't know. I just think that there might be enough of them. Thank you. Like Only Murders just feels like such a box to check at this point. I do wonder if like that could potentially something like that or shrinking, which just feel like defaults for a lot of people. I wonder if one of the newer shows could take a spot from one of them. Not from shrinking. People love that show and are still watching it. I don't understand only murders in the building, like in terms of how it's still going. I'm not saying like because of the quality.
22:15I just, it's like, it's very rare in this day and age for a show to go on as long as that show has gone on, especially with a cast with that many big names. But it has and does. I don't know. Meryl Streep was in it. It just feels like it'll get in there. The one I wonder about is the comeback. I mean, this season was huge. Like, everyone I know talks about it. But I'm just wondering if beyond our circle. But it's about the industry. I mean, I would put it on there, but I have had conversations with people who think it won't get nominated for series.
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22:49Savannah Walsh:Yeah. I wonder how much them saying this is the third and final season will play into that decision because I think voters like to award something when they know it's their last opportunity to do so. And they need to honor Michael Patrick King for his body of work with Andres like that. That's true. I mean, they did say the second season. Did they say the second season was the final two? They've said it a few times. Yeah. So who knows if that's real. Every season is kind of the final season. Okay. Well, that leads us right into lead actress in a comedy. You know, Lisa Kudrow is obviously going to get nominated.
23:16Jean Smart is obviously going to get nominated. My other predictions, Quinta Brunson for Abbott Elementary. I mean, the Academy just really seems to love that show and her particularly. I mean, she gets extra credit, I think, for having created it and, you know, writing and everything. Kristen Bell for Nobody Wants This. I think she gets in again. I think that Elle Fanning will get in for Margot. And yeah, I mean, I guess the bubble, there are a couple bubble possibilities. I think your list is right. I kind of wonder, we haven't talked about I Love L.A., but like Rachel Sennett, if anyone, I feel like is maybe the one similar to Quinta, like creator star that gets some love.
23:50Yeah, I don't think enough people watched it, but it is a good show. Yeah. It's also older people are like, ugh. They're like, why won't you wear a real shirt? Yeah, they just, they don't understand the way she talks. They don't understand her job. I mean, I loved I Love L.A., and I think Rachel Sennett exceeded my expectations for that show. I think she did it. Yeah, the show is better than what it needed to be, I think. But it is for a younger audience. And so, like, it's hard for me to imagine a world where the voting body that's constantly nominating only murders in the building. Right, right.
24:29And the slow horses, yeah. But not nominating Selena Gomez that much. Right, well, she's the young one. That's why. She's the young one on the show. The question is kind of maybe Jenna Ortega for Wednesday because it's just so widely seen. They've all watched it with their kids. I don't know.
24:47Savannah Walsh:I just want to put out there that Kim Kardashian is technically eligible for all's fair in this category. So consider her as well. Thank you, Savannah. It is coming back for season two and I will be watching. Well, since we've been talking about Only Murders in the Building quite a bit, let's jump to lead actor in a comedy. I always find this fascinating because Martin Short and Steve Martin don't always both get nominated. It's one of those things I closely watch because I think they're both great and obviously they're icons of their field. So I'm like, either nominate both or don't. I don't know.
25:21Yeah, last year, Short got in. Steve Martin did not. Right. And could that possibly happen again? Yes. Maybe, yes. I think the same thing could happen again. And Martin Short also has that Netflix documentary that just came out. I think maybe he's kind of more in people's minds. The other obvious nominees, I think, are Jason Segel for Shrinking. I think Shrinking had a really strong season. Harrison Ford was really out there promoting the show. In a way, I don't think he was the first season. He was a little bit there the second. But I think this is the season that people seem to really, especially because of his character's storyline.
25:54and then Adam Brody for Nobody Wants This feel like the solids to me. I'm a little bit less sure about the rest. If Widows Bay is going to be in then Matthew Rhys could be in for that. I thought maybe Steve Carell for Rooster. I really liked Rooster and I think it's one of his better performances. And then what are we doing with Jeremy Alley White this year, guys? Are we just not giving him a spot? The thing is when you've perfected your comic timing the way he has. On the bear. You know, when it's laugh out loud funny, I don't think they're going to nominate Jeremy Allen White. Even though he's won twice.
26:32Yeah. In this category. Fraud though it may be. Yeah. I think that like they want to make room for other things. And, you know, he's a movie star now and he's doing other stuff. I mean, the bear almost dares you to vote for it. Like they don't do any FYC stuff. Like they only show up to the premiere, which happens to be during the voting window because it airs during the summer. So FX is like maneuvered a way to get the cast together during the voting window, but not for the season that you're voting for. They're going to confuse people into thinking that they're voting for the final season. It's possible.
27:11That's their trick. And I don't think it's like nefarious. I think it's just like that's how the show is structured. But I think Steve will get in there. Steve Carell. Steve Carell, not Steve Martin. Battle of the Comedy Steves. I don't know about Steve Martin. It's very hard to know how much campaigning works on the Emmys versus the Oscars. Like, the Oscars, it works, like, a lot. Like, you can go from relative obscurity like Wagner Mora. Not that he was obscure, but, like, in September, if you told the general public he's going to get nominated for an Oscar for a movie called The Secret Agent.
27:51people would be like, no idea who that is, no idea what that movie is. And then by January, it was like, oh, it's happening. But in TV, it's like how much of these panels really move the needle versus just like, oh, I watch the show. Because none of these actors really did that much campaigning this season. Yeah, if the award was for campaigning, I feel like Yaya Abdul-Mateen II for Wonder Man has really been out there. Tracy Morgan has been out there. Like those, and I feel like they're really probably not going to make this group. Although, can I just say that, have you guys watched Tracy Morgan's new show, The Fall and Rise of Reggie Dinkins?
28:32I watched a couple. I didn't watch a whole thing. It really hits the spot for me. That old Robert Carlock, Tina Fey, like Joke a Minute Magic. Daniel Radcliffe is so funny in it too. Like, he's got a great supporting cast. Erica Alexander is really good. I don't know. If I could convince voters to watch something, I would say watch this. I feel like maybe it gets in in writing or something because, like, Girls 5 ever managed that. Yeah. It seems like a perfect writing nominee.
28:58Savannah Walsh:I can take us into Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series. I did the predictions for that one. I've got last year's winner, Hannah Einbinder, coming back for the final season of Hacks. I have Liza Colon-Dias from The Bear, who has won in this category before, and I think she's been nominated almost every year. She's been eligible. as have the ladies from Abbott Elementary, Janelle James, Cheryl Lee Ralph, who's one in this category. I have Meg Stalter for Hacks the final season. I have Michelle Pfeiffer for Margot's Got Money Troubles. And then I have a Saturday Night Live newcomer, Ashley Padilla, who I think has made quite a splash.
29:35Yeah, this was her big breakout year. I think she seems like the next big SNL, you know, in the post-Bone Yang and like Marcelo Hernandez has kind of had his moment and now I think. Now it's Ashley's turn. She's brilliant.
29:48Savannah Walsh:Yeah. I think Chris wrote a piece kind of introducing her. And yeah, she steals so many episodes from the season. She's got a great, like, on a gas dire energy. She is really good at playing a mom on the verge of losing her entire mind. Yes. Yeah. The mom debating whether or not it was right for her to vote for Trump was so funny. It was so brilliant. Yeah. And then, yeah, I think Michelle Pfeiffer is the other newcomer to this category. It might not pan out for her with the Madison, but she has a really kind of showy performance. And Margot's Got Money Troubles. It's her first time working with her husband, David E.
30:24Savannah Walsh:Kelly, in a few decades. So there's sort of a narrative there. And when I spoke to her for the Fanning cover story, she said it was one of her top five favorite projects she's ever worked on. And she's done a lot. So I think she's definitely out there campaigning for it. And I could see it getting recognized with some of the old faithfuls. I think the one person I would switch in is Jessica Williams for shrinking because she was nominated for the last two seasons. And I do think that show has a lot more momentum this time around. But who would I take out? The bear. Oh, yeah. The abuse of the bear.
31:01Taking out the bear trap. Sorry. Opening it. Which is really... Snapping shut on poor Liza. Yes. Oh, God.
31:09Savannah Walsh:That and Meg Salter. I wasn't sure. Because I think Meg Stalter can be a polarizing performance. I think people love her and some people have a hard time with her. I think that if they watch her in too much, I don't know if that helps or hurts her case. It's a good question. No, that hurts her case. It's a strange thing that she's doing because for the most part, everyone on the show is like on one level. And then they have this one character who's in ostensibly a different show, right? Yeah. But I think that the show is so beloved that she would get in there. and she had some of the, you know, funniest moments of the season.
31:45Rebecca, I think you should do supporting actor in a comedy because there's a bunch of shrinking guys in here and you're like our number one shrinking fan. I am. I really do love shrinking. Okay, so I think Harrison Ford is the front runner in this category for his role in shrinking and Michael Urie should also probably get in. And then I would say, you know, speaking of hacks, Paul W. Downs will get nominated and if we're keeping consistent on our Abbott Elementary love, then Tyler James Williams should get nominated again. Oh, and I loved Nick Offerman in Margot's Got Money Troubles. I feel like the women are great, but he, I mean, I feel like that was a whole different kind of role for him than I've seen and he's so good in it.
32:27So I feel like he is probably in, if the love for the show is as strong as I think it is. This is Bowen's last year of SNL. Does that matter? It's a good question because SNL is hard to predict in these acting categories. I feel like they're such a wild card. I might put him in over Tyler James Williams just because, I mean, they both have precedent in this category, but Abbott just doesn't feel like as much of a zeitgeisty thing at this moment. Or like Coleman Domingo, there is another season of the four seasons and Coleman Domingo did get nominated for the last one. So, and he's got euphoria.
33:00I feel like people love Coleman Domingo. Yeah, they do. I agree. This is a hard one to predict other than the top three. I mean, does Steven Root get in for Widow's Bay? He's like such a beloved character actor. He got a bunch of nominations for Barry. Remember Barry? Barry was great. Yeah, yeah. And remember last year they nominated and gave the Emmy to Jeff Hiller? Yeah, for Somebody Somewhere. That was great. This big upset, this exciting moment of like, yeah, that was a tiny, tiny show that I definitely did not think. The nomination itself was a surprise. Him winning was huge. Yeah. So, yeah, I mean, smaller shows with passionate audiences definitely have a shot.
33:37Right. How are we feeling about Eben Moss' backtrack, guys? Well, he's on the bear.
33:43Savannah Walsh:He's on the bubble because it's us. I mean, he missed out on the Tony nom. He's won already. I don't know. Let's get some fresh people in there. Or even like Coleman Domingo, who's not like fresh blood per se, but is at least not in there every single year. And he is really the best thing about the Euphoria finale, Coleman's performance. So I think it will be a nod towards that, too. All right. We're going to take another break. When we get back, limited series and the other races we're watching. Stick around.
34:23Hi, I'm Nicole Phelps, the Global Fashion News and Features Director and co-host of Vogue's podcast, The Run-Through. Each week on the show, our listeners get an all-access pass to the world of Vogue with the latest fashion news and the most exciting voices in the industry. On Tuesdays, join me to hear interviews with influential leaders in the industry like Calvin Klein, Daniel Roseberry, and Jonathan Anderson. On Thursdays, join Head of Editorial Content at Vogue, Chloe Mal, and Head of Editorial Content at British Vogue, Chomenadi, as they explore style and culture through the lens of fashion with guests like Martha Stewart, Kamala Harris, and Tracee Ellis Ross.
35:02The Run Through with Vogue, new episodes every Tuesday and Thursday, wherever you get your podcasts.
35:17Welcome back to Little Gold Men. Let's wrap things up with the limited series predictions. I will take it on. Thank you. Beef, love story, half man. I'm going to say DTF St. Louis. And then the beast in me. Oh, you don't think all her fault's going to make it? no and I watched it and loved it and it was a lot of fun but it's uh to give a succession quote it's not a serious person well neither is the beast in me the beast in me is so pulpy and Claire Danes is doing full Claire Danes face the whole time yeah no no I I don't feel as confident about the beast in me except for the fact that it's on Netflix which means that everyone watched it So this is where there's some anecdotal evidence.
36:09So Halfman. Halfman is a very polarizing TV show. Yeah, I couldn't watch it. I have not met, well, there you go. I have not met a single, single person who has said that they watched more than the first episode. I don't know how that plays out in the acting categories, but I still think it'll get in there in the limited series because it's a quote unquote important work. And it's HBO. And then DTF St. Louis just kept building steam. Yeah, that feels word of mouthy and like campaign-y too. Yeah. People watched it after it aired and it just built its audience and it has like a fan base that I think will get in there.
37:00Can I stump for something late? Yeah, yeah, yeah. I loved Death by Lightning and I'm so sad that it doesn't seem like enough people watched it because that was also a Netflix show. A lot of people could. That was a great show. It was so good. Matthew McFadden gives like an incredible performance as Charles Gouteau, the guy who shot James Garfield. Like if you've seen the musical Assassins, then you already know this story. But yeah, it's just it's a really good like slice of history. It's only four episodes. And I wish that it had made more of an impression because it's like, I don't know. I feel like that's what a limited series should be.
37:33It should be contained and kind of give good actors just a chance to really go for it. Nick Offerman's really good on it too. Yeah. And Michael Shannon. Yeah, so I don't know. I wish that that were more of a contender. I think that it deserves to be. Yeah, it's interesting because I feel like Netflix has so many limited series. Like Black Rabbit and Lord of the Flies, they were both also promoting quite heavily. And so maybe it's just like a we can't promote all these shows for FYC in the same time situation because Beef is, I think, their, you know, number one favorite child. And it's also a proven winner.
38:08I mean, the first season of Beef won everything. And Netflix has won this category a lot. And I think Love Story is the only threat to that not happening again this season. So maybe it's because I've heard such great things about Death by Line. I have not seen it yet. But I am surprised there wasn't sort of more awareness about it because everyone seems to love it. And especially like, you know, it's about America and masculinity. Like, it's actually pretty timely in a lot of ways. All right. Should we jump to lead actress in the limited series or TV movie? This is one I did. Claire Danes, The Beast and Me.
38:42Sally Field, Remarkably Bright Creatures, which is a TV movie. In which she does not play an octopus, but an octopus is a main character. Yeah, we're going to have to go back to that. Put a pin in it. Okay, hold on. Carrie Mulligan for Beef. Sarah Pidgeon for Love Story. John F. Kennedy Jr. and Carolyn Bissette. and Sarah Snook for all her fault. So yes, I will admit Sally Field is the wild card here. And I was on the fence about it. But I feel like if you're an actor or a TV person in general and you see you have a chance to vote for Sally Field, you check that box. You just do. Even though they definitely have not seen this.
39:24No. But they probably have seen the cover of the book on a display at Barnes & Noble. Yes. It is a very striking cover. Once again, Hillary, you're overestimating Angelina's intelligence. The thing never been inside of a bookstore. People in L.A. don't read. We keep trying to tell you this, but you don't learn. We almost elected Spencer Brown as the oral race. No, he actually wound up being a distant third. We cannot perpetuate this narrative. I know. Anyway, Alfred Molina plays an octopus in Remarkably Bright Creatures. Is this true? Yeah.
39:58Savannah Walsh:Yeah, and what is Sally Field's relationship to the octopus? She's the cleaning lady at the aquarium, and she makes friends with an octopus played by Alfred Molina. I might have to see this with my own two eyes. Okay, the awareness is a little worse than I realized about this movie. But I have seen Sally Field promoting it. I've seen her everywhere. I have seen Sally Field, yeah. And I think that's all that matters for them to check her name. No, totally. But I would argue, who are you putting in that spot? I think the person a lot of people are predicting is Kerry Washington for Imperfect Women.
40:30But that is a series that I found pretty difficult to watch and I don't think is very critically acclaimed. And I also am not sure she's the best part of if you're picking between those performances. So to me, that would be a baffling pick other than it's Kerry Washington. She's beloved and she's very talented. But I'm putting all my money on the octopus in Sally. Again, she does not play at the octopus. us. We have to specify. I wasn't confused about that, but thank you for clearing it up. All right, John, you want to do actor for us? Yeah, I'm going to do actor and I went a little crazy. Oscar Isaac Beef, Matthew Rhys, The Beast and Me, Paul Anthony Kelly for Love Story, John F.
41:15Kennedy and Carolyn Bessette, John Bernthal, His and Hers, Charlie Hunnam, Monster, The Ed Gein Story. Now, Now, Jon Bernthal is a crazy pick. But this show was like one of the number one shows on Netflix this past winter. I have never heard of this show. It's the one with Tessa Thompson and a lot of people watched it. Yeah, it was very popular on Netflix. Yeah, they haven't really done that much of a campaign. But the person that I didn't put is Jamie Bell for Halfman. The reason why is that I think people are going to be confused. Jamie Bell is the lead and Richard Gad, I guess, isn't supporting.
42:00But I think that people only watch the first episode and they're not going to get that. And so they're going to keep going up and down on their ballot and being like, where's the guy who's like from. Baby reindeer. Baby reindeer. Yeah. You're playing fourth dimensional chess here. I know. You're really thinking this through. No. Well, I think that it could shoot him in the foot. And then I think popularity could pull through here. And people really like Jon Bernthal as an actor. I don't know. My other question, though, if I may interrupt, is Monster, the Ed Gein story, is so horrible. I agree.
42:42Like, I guess Charlie Hunnam's good in it in as much as anybody could be. But those Monster shows are just kind of morally reprehensible. You don't think that could potentially stop. I don't know. The Dahmer one did get nominations, I suppose. The Dahmer one is far superior to this. Exactly. So do you think that this still gets in just because people have heard of it and it's a Ryan Murphy show? Like, I think the show itself is kind of not just bad. I think they just are giving it to him because of the voice. OK. He does the voice. He does the voice. Yes. I agree with you. I mean, I like have predictions on Gold Derby, which results in me just getting crazy emails all day.
43:19And I had Paul Anthony Kelly on there early for Love Story because I was like, oh, he's like. Obviously, yeah. JFK. Yeah, I thought it was kind of obvious. And people were like, you're insane. Like, da-da-da-da. And now I feel pretty confident about that. I mean, that was like the biggest show of the winter. Yeah, I know. But in the beginning, I don't know. People were like, it's a first time. Nobody knows who he is. John is taking credit for discovering him. No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no. I'm just saying like this was a hard one for me to predict because there is Jason Bateman in Black Rabbit.
43:50Right. But he's really more for DTF St. Louis. Yeah. And Jude Law. But Black Rabbit, I don't think was— It came out so long ago. Yeah. Yeah, it came out so long ago. There's Michael Shannon in Death by Lightning. There's Riz Ahmed for Bait, which is this super meta interesting show, but I just don't think enough people saw it. So I just put Charlie Hunnam on there because I think they just are like, oh, he, you know. Had to do a physical transformation. Yeah, he has to do a lot of very, like, humiliating things in that show. So I hope that he gets a nomination for his trouble. Should we do Supporting Actress?
44:33Yeah, take it away. Supporting Actress in a limited series, my predictions. We got Linda Cardellini for DTF St. Louis, Grace Gummer for Love Story, Dakota Fanning for All Her Fault, Kaylee Spaney for Beef, Naomi Watts for Love Story, and Yoo Jung-yeon for Beef. I feel like beef is probably a pretty safe bet. I think that that show gets a lot of Emmy love. I feel like one question in this is if enough people saw all her fall to go down the line to Dakota Fanning. I don't know. Let's get some double Fannings at the Emmys. I feel like both of them. I would love to see that. I know you would.
45:09Savannah Walsh:Yeah, I think Dakota has a really strong episode in the back half that could help get her there for sure. I feel like Naomi Watts' Jackie Kennedy is divisive. Yeah. So that's a question about whether she makes it. What's the other side? Who likes it? Nicole Kidman. Naomi Watts is a wonderful actress. Mulholland Drive is one of the greatest film performances of all time. This is a horrible Jack Dio. I actually think Constance Zimmer can get in for Love Story. She has that one really killer scene. I mean, she's been nominated before Constance Zimmer. unreal was so good for one and a half seasons yeah I would love to see her sneak in I feel like that would be kind of a cool outcome but otherwise like I don't know Laurie Metcalf is in the mix for Ed Gein but again I just feel like that show is so disgusting yeah this character is actually kind of thin when you think you need seven slots there's not a lot of performances I feel like I will remember that you know I mean the love story actors are good but it's so much Sarah Pidgeon's show I loved Kaylee Spaney's performance in Beef.
46:20I thought she did a brilliant job of somebody who starts off as this sweet young thing and becomes increasingly more horrible from episode to episode, but I don't know where it'll shake out in the wind.
46:37Savannah Walsh:I will take us through Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Limited Series or TV Movie. I think Charles Melton from Beef, speaking of which, will make it in. Alessandro Nivola from Love Story. He played Calvin Klein. Jason Bateman, I think we'll get in for DTF St. Louis. Richard Gad for Halfman. Once people look down their ballot and realize this is the category. Once they realize that's the guy. That's when things get crazy. And then I'm not sure on this last slot. Two last slots. Two left. Let's go David Harbour for DTF St. Louis. And then let's go Jonathan Banks for The Beast and Me. Jonathan Banks did get a lot of love for Breaking Bad and Better Call Saul.
47:20And he's just kind of been plugging away for years and years.
47:23Savannah Walsh:Yeah, he's one of those character actors they like to nominate. I feel like Alessandro Nivola, similar. I don't know. This one feels pretty cut and dry. I'm curious, David Harbour, if the Stranger Things last season will help him get a nomination, hurt him in this field. I just think that maybe people don't even remember Stranger Things ended. It definitely came and went. even though there was such a big buildup like I think airing that final episode on New Year's maybe kind of hurt them just because people were not as plugged in yeah I agree well I think the David Harbour thing actually is more that there is like personal stuff attached to his name whether that's also a little further back now I agree it's further back and I also think that they're going to vote based on performance and like the Lily Allen stuff and whether or not he did have an issue on the Stranger Things set, although it seems like the answer is no based on recent reporting.
48:20Yeah, and also he and Millie Bobby Brown did press together, and whatever seems to have happened either blew over or was overblown in the first place. Yeah, exactly. And he's really good on this show. I think he could win. I feel like he's really solid. Yeah, if DTF is surging at the right time and there's not another obvious, although, I don't know, Charles Milton. He's so good. in Beef. It's such a hard role because he is this like himbo guy but then he's like, you just root for him the whole time. He's like maybe the only character that's not like terrible in the end of that show. I mean, he's definitely getting nominated.
48:57I guess we'll see what happens after that. But I feel like David Harbour, that role also just is very different for him. And I mean, if there's a big beef surge, I think Song Kang-ho could also get nominated because he's a beloved Korean actor as well, and many people are familiar with him, so that's a possibility, but I think otherwise you covered it all, Savannah. All right, there's obviously a ton more Emmy categories. There's no way we could get to them all because this would be an eight-hour episode, but you can look at our full predictions at vanityfair.com. I am going to just mention one more weird category before we call it a day, which is the Outstanding Variety Series category, which was previously two categories and now is one category again this year.
49:40So it's the combination of outstanding talk series and outstanding scripted variety, which means it's all the late night shows and Saturday Night Live and hot ones, if you wanted to consider that a contender. So I'm predicting it's going to be kind of the shows we would expect it to be. Daily Show, Jimmy Kimmel Live, Last Week Tonight with John Oliver, The Late Show with Stephen Colbert. Obviously, this is competing for his last season and Saturday Night Live. The Hot Ones did a really big campaign this year. Like, there's a chance that could happen. There's no chance that could happen. Yeah, because who would drop off?
50:13That's it. It's like, now that they've combined these categories, it's actually the five slots feel pretty clear. I think it'll be interesting to see who wins. We talked about this in another episode, but there's actually a possibility for more than one winner in this category. It's voted on differently than in other categories, where you, as a voter, you're asked, does this show deserve an Emmy? And if 90 % of voters say yes, the show gets an Emmy. What? Yeah. Yes. Yep. I'm not making this up. That's like the prisoner's dilemma or something. Yeah. So if nobody gets to 90%, then whichever show gets the highest percent gets the Emmy, which is probably what's going to happen.
50:50Wow. That is the craziest thing I've ever heard. Yeah, the late night categories at the Emmys have such a strange history because there were more of them and then there were fewer of them and then they made more and then they made fewer. And then they moved John Oliver because no one wanted to compete against him. Yes. But they also have like weird things in there like it's Florida man is in this category.
51:09Savannah Walsh:Why? Very important people. Like this is oddly a category that I can vote on. And this is one where they could use descriptions for the ballot as to like explaining to you. I have no idea why. Yeah, like why is it's Florida man? I guess because it's more in line with SNL. in its formatting, but it's... Yeah, yeah, because it's not... I watched one on a plane. I was like, what is this? Yeah. I mean, I think we can probably agree it's Colbert's to lose. It's his last time, his last rodeo. He won last year. He won last year because he got canceled, arguably. Yeah, I agree with that as well. I mean, he hasn't gone up against John Oliver, who wins everything every year in several years, but I agree with the Colbert narrative.
52:01He's definitely the frontrunner. Well, we'll be watching on July 8th when the Emmy nominations are announced. And Hilary and Savannah, thank you so much for joining us for this very long episode. Oh, thank you for having us. Thanks for having us. Long live the octopus.
52:18Thanks for listening to Little Gold Men. Our senior producer is Michelle O 'Brien and our producer is Grace Rubin. We had engineering help today from Prairie Bandy with mixing by Mike Kutchman. Our executive producer is Stephen Valentino. We're going to be taking a break next week for the 4th of July, but we'll be back in a couple of weeks to discuss the Emmy nominations. We'll see you then.
53:01to the world of Vogue with the latest fashion news and the most exciting voices in the industry. On Tuesdays, join me to hear interviews with influential leaders in the industry like Calvin Klein, Daniel Roseberry, and Jonathan Anderson. On Thursdays, join head of editorial content at Vogue, Chloe Mal, and head of editorial content at British Vogue, Chomanati, as they explore style and culture through the lens of fashion with guests like Martha Stewart, Kamala Harris, and Tracee Ellis Ross. The Run Through with Vogue. New episodes every Tuesday and Thursday, wherever you get your podcasts.
From the publisher
This year’s Emmy nominations won’t be announced until July 8, but that isn’t stopping Little Gold Men from making some bold predictions. Rebecca and John are joined by Hillary Busis and Savannah Walsh for a category-by-category breakdown of the upcoming races. They discuss whether The Pitt will sweep in drama (again), if Widow’s Bay is this year’s sleeper hit, and whether The Bear’s reign may finally be ending. Plus, the under-the-radar contenders Emmy voters shouldn’t ignore.
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