Our Extremely Early Oscar Best-Picture Predictions

0:03Hello and welcome to Little Gold Men, Vanity Fair's podcast for film, TV, and awards lovers. I'm David Canfield. I'm Richard Lawson. And I'm Rebecca Ford. We wanted to start today's show by acknowledging the news that we know some of you have seen already. Richard and I are leaving Vanity Fair at the end of this month. Next week will be our last episode, and we will save our final goodbyes for then. Little Gold Men is going to continue, and I hope all of you who are listening will stick with us. We'll have more details about that shortly, but for now I'm just going to say I'm going to miss you guys so much, and I'll save the rest of it for next week.

0:37That's all I'm going to say. But yeah, we wanted to make sure that we had a chance to answer any of your film, TV, or awards questions. Next week's episode is going to be a mailbag episode. Please write in your questions or send a voice memo to littlegoldmen at vf.com. You know, we want to hear your questions about this coming awards season, but also anything from the past, like a favorite winner, or yes, I'm willing to answer my least favorite winner. We'd love to hear from you. Maybe you want to recast the Oscars for what is widely known as the best movie year ever, 1999. I know I would make some swaps into who the Academy picked that year.

1:13Yeah, honestly, if it's just a 1999 mailbag episode, I'm fine with that. Yeah, not to give you any ideas, but yes, we will accept that. Please make sure to send us in by end of day Sunday, as we'll be recording on Monday morning. We look forward to hearing from you. And with that, let's move on to today's episode. We are going to very bravely share our best picture, 10 predictions. We usually do these after we've all been to the fall festivals, but I suppose we are upping the stakes this year by moving it up. And speaking of fall festivals, the Venice Film Festival will be kicking off next week.

1:49I cannot believe it's that soon. Telluride and TIFF following close behind. So before we get into our best picture 10 predictions, we're going to talk through a few titles we haven't gotten to go as in-depth on that are premiering soon and just give a broad overview of the fall festivals. I wanted to start with, is this thing on? Because I think the news of that movie closing the New York Film Festival came out just as we had recorded one episode, so we never got to talk about it. But fortunately, Rebecca Ford has an exclusive first look on VanityFair.com this lovely Thursday morning. This is Bradley Cooper's new directed film that stars Will Arnett.

2:26He also co-wrote the movie with Bradley Cooper. Rebecca, what did you learn about Is This Thing On? That he is still finishing it when we talked. So that's my favorite time to talk to filmmakers because they are still deep in it. He really did rush this to make it for New York and it seemed like that was very important to him. I talked to Bradley and Will together, which was really fun because they talked about, you know, they've had a friendship for more than a decade now and they had talked about working together for a long time. So I think this movie is very special to them because of that friendship.

3:00And Will spent a lot of time doing stand-up in New York to prepare for this role. And I thought that was just totally fascinating because it's not something he had done. And they really embedded themselves in the culture of stand-up to understand everything for this film. So I think it's going to be very special. They're really passionate about it. and there's a lot. I also spoke to Laura Dern for the piece, and she also has been friends with Bradley Cooper for a very long time. So it's a very personal project, I think, in a lot of ways for all of them because they have known each other for so long, and they brought some of those real-life parts of them to the project.

3:38I think Laura Dern just knows everybody. I got to work on a piece about Jay Kelly, Netflix's upcoming Noah Baumbach film, and George Clooney told me that Laura Dern has been his little sister for like four or five decades and that they were in their first movie together. So Laura Dern's got her hands all over this award season, I guess. I'm always so fascinated to find out which celebrities have known each other forever. Like Julie Miller's wonderful cover piece about Jennifer Aniston in this month's issue, I didn't know that she was like best friends with Sandra Bullock. The depth of that friendship was wild.

4:11So Laura Dern feels like one of those very much like zealot figures where it's just like Laura Dern's just always there in the background dating back to like 1982. too. Yeah, which is fun. Yeah, the tone of Is This Thing On is different for Bradley Cooper than his other films. It is more comedic, though dark. It really centers on a divorce story essentially, but I think he's sort of jumping into that tale in a different way. I don't want to spoil too much about how it may unfold, but I'm curious to see how it goes. I think he's an incredibly strong director and I think he's purposefully sort of doing very different types of films and he's also in it in a smaller role as well.

4:52New York will also see the world premiere of Anemone, which is the directorial debut of Ronan Day-Lewis, starring his father, Daniel Day-Lewis, making a return to acting. Not a lot is known about this one. Rebecca and I have heard it is very artsy and perhaps not the most accessible sell, but I feel like Daniel Day-Lewis' return to acting and such a personal story at that is one that's going to demand at least some attention this season. You're telling me Daniel Day-Lewis's son made an artsy movie? That doesn't compare. Allegedly. Yeah, we've heard it's smaller. So, you know, that makes the whole conversation of an Oscar run a little more precarious.

5:37But this is going to be such an interesting experiment if you just have Daniel Day-Lewis delivering Daniel Day-Lewis in a movie, does it just like automatically get an Oscar nomination and or win. I'm so curious to see how that all goes. And, you know, I think we'll know pretty quickly after it debuts in New York. And as we've joked about already, like, who does he bump out? You know, like, what definite sure thing Best Actor nominee does Daniel Day-Lewis has just mere presence in the season knock out of the competition? We'll see. Yeah, Best Actor is starting to feel heavy. Very, very, very competitive.

6:09Yeah, we'll talk about this when we get into the Best Picture lineups, but it is stacked with really, really big names. So we may just see Daniel Day-Lewis, George Clooney, and Matthew McConaughey duking it out for the final slot. Who's to say? One other first look that we had run this week is for Hedda. This is the upcoming Hedda Gabler adaptation directed by Nia DaCosta, starring Tessa Thompson. This film's premiering in Toronto, and Rebecca, you also wrote this first look. I don't know what a Nia DaCosta adaptation of Hedda Gabler looks like, but I'm excited to find out. Yeah, I'm so excited by her as a filmmaker.

6:47And, you know, I talked to her for this piece about the Marvels, and she was already in prep for Hedda at the time, but she wrote that script a long time ago. Like she, you know, first became aware of this when she was in school in London and wanted to do her own adaptation and put her own perspective on it. So she talked a lot about how much she loves this character of Hedda Gabler. And because she is, to her, a very unredeemable character and how do you present that woman so audiences will still follow along with her for this whole story. She's such a complicated character and I was also able to talk to Tessa about it because this performance is so demanding and there's a very exciting casting of Nina Haas in a role in the film that I think is going to make people go nuts.

7:32So there's a lot to be excited about about this one and I think it'll really entertain audiences. Also, shout out to Henrik Ibsen, kind of the girl of the season for the last couple of years between this and, you know, the Jessica Chastain in the Doll's House, the Jeremy Strong in the Enemy of the People. Like, there's just Ibsen's everywhere right now. It's move over, Chekhov. We'll have some other first looks going up over the next few days, so we can't quite reveal what we know about certain other festival movies. But as mentioned, I did write a little bit about Jay Kelly. And as it is mentioned in the piece, I did get a chance to see it, although it remains an embargoed title.

8:08I suppose the main thing to know about this movie is that George Clooney is playing a very personal role and one that he had to give a different side of himself as an actor to in a way that everyone on set really noticed. I think he was a little bit shyer, perhaps, about talking about that with me. Noah Baumbach spoke really beautifully about it, and it is something that I think will surprise people, particularly toward the end, just how vulnerable that work gets from perhaps the most famous movie star of his era. It's funny because I feel like George Clooney is one of those people that we feel like we all know because we've seen him in 100 ,000 movies at this point.

8:49And so to see that vulnerability come up when he is so charming and he knows how to be a movie star, but to see that come up in a role for him sounds like something I'm going to run to see. So I'm really curious about it. I also feel like we haven't gotten to see him movie star in a while. You know, like he's been acting and most recently was on Broadway and Tony nominated for it. But like, I just feel like what I know about Jay Kelly, there's a teaser trailer out. It just feels like maybe the best place for George Clooney movie star is to be reflecting on George Clooney movie star. Yeah, he's not done a lot of movies lately, actually.

9:28He's somebody who has taken a bit of a backseat. So the fact that he's in a feature at all, let alone with a director of Bomb X-Caliber, and let alone in a film going to Venice, going to the New York Film Festival, like having this full awards season rollout. Yeah, it's going to be one of the big stories of the season, I think. The last movie I wanted to bring up that we haven't gotten into as much on the podcast so far is Christy. Sidney Sweeney, I don't know if listeners know, has been in the news a little bit of late. All positive, everything good. Everything's great. Nothing that she will have to talk about, unfortunately, at length on a press tour.

10:04But this is going to be a movie that perhaps puts her into an awards conversation in a way she hasn't been before. She's playing a boxer. It's a very physically transformative role. The director, David Michaud, is known for very intense movies. It's premiering in Toronto. It's looking for a distributor. It's one of a handful of titles that I think could make a splash before year's end that doesn't even have a home yet. Yeah, this is probably true of a lot of movies, but this feels like particularly a make-or-break festival movie where it's like if it goes over well there, then there's really a story to be told and there's a campaign to be mounted.

10:41If it plays even kind of middling, I feel like that's it for it. I think that it just is up against a lot of odds because of the star and her recent controversies, which I think really mostly didn't have anything to do with her. But I feel like every year or so, there's some boxing movie. and sometimes it connects, sometimes it doesn't and I'm really curious to see which way this one goes because Michaud as a director is sort of hit or miss. You know, his first most notable film was Animal Kingdom back in 2010, an incredible movie that, you know, put like Jackie Weaver on the international map and other things.

11:14But since then, it's been a bit sort of helter-skelter for him. So I'm curious about this one very much so. Yeah, I think if Sidney Swinikin pull off playing this, you know, real-life boxer who I think most people probably don't know much about, but from what I understand, she was really like one of the first female boxers to be really successful and have a really interesting personal life. So if it combines all those things and gives me everything I want from like a boxing drama and hopefully Sydney's doing sort of a transformative performance, I feel like I think it'll have everything she would need for a campaign.

11:51So I agree, Richard. It feels very make or break for her. Well, this is just a handful of the many, many films set to premiere over the next month. We will be keeping a close eye on all of them and see which ones actually break out as Oscar contenders. In the meantime, we're going to speculate which are going to break out as Oscar contenders. And after the break, we will dive into our very, very, very early Best Picture 10 predictions. Stay with us.

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13:51Welcome back to Little Gold Men from Vanity Fair. So we have each compiled a list of our predictions for Best Picture nominees, our top ten in no particular order. As is tradition, we have not compared notes yet. I have no idea what Richard or Rebecca picked or how insane mine are in comparison. I'm excited to see where we overlap and where we do not. Richard, I believe you're going to go first for us. Who have you got? Yeah, I just wrote materialist 10 times.

14:20No, I'm kidding. Okay, so in really no order, not even alphabetical, my best picture 10 predictions are Neuvel Vogue, Richard Linklater, Sinners, The Lost Bus, Paul Greengrass, Jay Kelly, The Smashing Machine, Avatar, Fire and Ash, but we're really calling it Avatar the Seedbearer, which was its original title. It was Just an Accident, the Palme d 'Or winning film from Iran, Sentimental Value, another can hit, Marty Supreme, and Catherine Bagelow's A House of Dynamite. So I've worn you down on Sentimental Value. I'm proud of this. You wore us all down, spoiler alert. It was a late addition, and then I was like, you know what?

15:00Just the way the Academy is going these days, we can't count out non-American movies just because they're non-American. Indeed. Rebecca, how does your list compare? Similar but different. Okay. No, we have a lot in common, actually, but I can't wait to talk about the ones we don't. All right. House of Dynamite, Avatar, Fire and Ash, Begonia, Hamnet, J. Kelly, Marty Supreme, Sentimental Value, Sinners, The Lost Bus, and Wicked for Good. You're very optimistic about Wicked 2. I know. It really, we'll get into it, but that was the one I deleted and put back four times. I feel like there's a lot of optimism for Avatar 3, but that's just my take.

15:45Well, has there been a bad Avatar movie, David? Strong Oscar history there. Indeed. Okay. My 10 are A House of Dynamite, Hamnet, It Was Just an Accident, Jay Kelly, The Lost Bus, Marty Supreme, Sentimental Value, Sinners, Springsteen, Deliver Me From Nowhere, and Wicked For Good. All right. So you're both on the Wicked train, huh? Should we defend that choice? I guess that we can start there. Let's go. Let's start with Wicked versus Avatar because these are, I mean, they are in the same bucket. big unknowns working off of previous Best Picture nominations, likely to be huge box office successes at the end of the year, skipping the festivals.

16:28We all seem to think that some combination of the two will make it in. I think, Rebecca, you're the only one who has both of them in, so maybe you should start. Well, I feel like the studio movies have been doing well, you know, the last few years. There's room for that there. I think it would be weird to have the first one get so many nominations for Wicked and this one to not. But like I said, I'm not sure. I think quite a few films could knock it out of the race here. They have not really kicked off their promotional campaign yet. For the first one, they did like an entire year of campaigning, both for release and awards, of course.

17:06But I think they know they need to pace themselves this time around. None of us have seen the film. We have no idea if it's as good or better than the first one or not as good. So, you know, this is kind of a guess. But when I think about movies that are very well respected in crafts, you know, Avatar always has that. They get a little boost from that with Best Picture. So I just felt like it'll be enough to make it on for both those films. Yeah, it's a tricky landing to nail Wicked. But I do think there is enough evidence from the first film that John Chu has a control over it. He has a good handle on it.

17:44The performances are obviously good. And yes, the songs might be lacking and the story might get really weird in that second half of Wicked, but maybe that's okay. I am very curious how much they interweave the Dorothy Gale story into this because it really just in the sort of chronology of the bomb, you know, Frank Baum world, the second half of Wicked is happening while A Wizard of Oz is happening. And in the stage show, it's kind of implied or talked about but never shown. But I think they just are going to have to show something involving Dorothy and everyone else. So that might be a big factor in how people receive it, how that's handled.

18:23The reason I went with Wicked over Avatar is Wicked has undeniable momentum right now. And it does have those, the second part, that is, does have those touches toward classic film and film history that I think will open up the awards tent a little bit more. The performances have been recognized. We know it has the support of the acting branch in a way that Avatar never did. And yeah, I think Universal proved just a year ago that they knew how to handle a kind of combined commercial and awards campaign for this title. So I think that combination also should continue to serve it very well. I think with Avatar, my reluctance, and obviously if the film turns out to be great and lands huge, I'll think, differently.

19:10But it didn't perform as well as the first one at the Oscars. And specifically with international voters, it kind of cratered The Way of Water. The BAFTAs didn't even put it in their top 10. And generally speaking, I think it was seen as not as strong as the first one, even though I actually really liked the second one and maybe don't share that opinion. I just, I don't know. I don't know if this will evolve into a franchise that remains massive commercially, but doesn't quite excite Hollywood in the industry in the same way where they want to go to bat for it, especially in a year that's looking pretty competitive.

19:45Yeah, I mean, I will say, just to disagree with myself, I did put Avatar on my 10, is that trailer is maybe less than inspiring. And who knows how much of, you know, the movie that trailer is actually representative of, but it didn't have quite the same sort of like stirring sort of grandeur to it that the other two movies, I think, so keenly evoke. And so, yeah, I think that if I was going to rank my list from like most likely to least likely, probably Avatar would be number 10. Mm-hmm. I don't know, guys. I feel very sure about Avatar. A sight unseen, basically have no information other than the trailer we've been discussing.

20:25But I feel like because they wait so long to show us this movie, it doesn't do festivals. They just release it when it's time to release it. we don't hear a lot about it until it's time. And every time I'm like, oh no, I really like this movie. It's great when I'm sitting there. And it feels big and it feels, of course, it feels so ambitious and he pulls it off. And I think when audiences experience that, even though it is so late in the season, it's sort of undeniable. So unless this movie is truly boring or terrible, I just feel like the film will be on there. I say he because it's just literally James Cameron.

21:01It's James Cameron, yes. Yes, James Cameron is Avatar Fire Nash. And I think that that is an important point in that like all these many years into his career, 40 plus years, people are still really in awe of what that guy can pull off. Yep. And I think that the Academy, yes, it's diversified. It's more international now. It's a bit more like art house focused, but I still think there is enough voting membership within the Academy to be like, what a guy, like, look what he did, you know? And that's again, why I did put it on my list is because people just are always impressed by him. We know so little, and yet we all agree on six of our 10.

21:38And that's terrifying to me because we really haven't discussed this process that much. We all agree on A House of Dynamite. This is the Catherine Bigelow film that's premiering at Venice, distributed by Netflix. Marty Supreme, I'm guessing we all watched that trailer and put it in here. Sentimental Value, as I mentioned, this is the Joachim Trier film that won the Grand Prix at Cannes. Sinners this is the Ryan Coogler film that was a box office phenomenon starring Michael B. Jordan I would argue it's the front runner The Lost Bus this is the Matthew McConaughey film directed by Paul Greengrass that Apple has it's premiering in Toronto and Jay Kelly which we just talked about in our previous segment Sinners guys we're all on the Sinners train it's easy to be confident in Sinners because you look at the rest of this list and there's only two that we have technically seen I mean some of us may have seen some things here, but none of these movies have come out.

22:32So, I mean, at least we have seen Sinners and we know what it can do and we know about the stories. So, yeah, I agree. It feels very, very strong. And it's like the movie that inspired Hollywood this year. Everyone was like, hey, if that can happen, then maybe other things can happen. Maybe we are returning to a 1970s auteur-driven studio Hollywood. That would be thrilling. And Sinners is a great standard bearer for that change, if that change is indeed happening. It's creatively interesting. It has historical sort of interest. It's entertaining. It's well acted. Yeah, I just don't really see why they wouldn't pick it because it is a sort of shining emblem of what that town does best.

23:14Yeah, it's a major moment for Ryan Coogler as well, a filmmaker who is so highly regarded in the industry. He very much does things his own way. Of course, that was a huge story in the way that the movie was financed and the ownership that Kugler has over the rights to the film, at least later on in its life. The one question, I suppose, about it, at least as a potential winner, is can it do what Everything Everywhere All at Once did, which I think is a great comp, and have that cast, that team, going around Los Angeles, going around New York a little bit, and really winning the town over. That is the way that a movie like this gets across the finish line, when it is a little bit more commercial, a little bit more genre than what the Academy typically goes for.

24:00It requires a certain level of falling in love. And that's the one outstanding element for this. I do think it's possible though. They don't have a Kiwi Kwan and they don't have a Jamie Lee Curtis. You know, that is a concern. I mean, there's one Jamie Lee Curtis, let's be real. Yeah. Relatedly, we did all predict The Lost Bus. Yeah, I think the question is, Michael B. Jordan's filming a movie. So I assume things have been moved around so he can show up for a bunch of these things, you know, come the end of the year, because I think that will be important, is what you're saying, for them to sort of appear as a group and have that power in the rooms.

24:37Should we talk about The Lost Bus? As Jamie Lee Curtis has been thrown into the chat. I mean, Rebecca, you have written a first look on this movie, so we can say you've seen it. I think it's safe to say you cannot say anything about it beyond what we know and what's in the story. but we're all predicting it. I mean, you need to see it to make sure it's a good movie but on paper, Paul Greengrass, Matthew McConaughey, a real life story that is made very personal by specifically being about this bus driver who's trying to rescue a busload of children from a fire and America Ferrera, a recent Oscar nominee.

25:13There's a lot even on paper that makes this feel like a real contender if it's done right. Yeah, it has relevance to the horrible things that happened in LA at the beginning of this year. And Greengrass, he can be, I think, sometimes sort of alienating in his drive to observe horrible things happening. I think about the Norway movie, and you're like, why are we watching this? Why was this made? But I think that The Lost Bus, from what I know about it, it's going to have that sort of immediate relevance, that immediate emotional pull to it that doesn't make it feel sort of leering and sort of voyeuristic.