Our Final Emmy Nominations Predictions

3 Jul 2025 · 54 min · 23 chapters

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In short

The episode of Little Gold Men (Vanity Fair) does two things: a summer box-office check-in and the hosts’ final Emmy nominations predictions ahead of the July 15 announcements. They discuss Jurassic World Rebirth (cast led by Scarlett Johansson, with Mahershala Ali, Jonathan Bailey, Rupert Friend; praised performances but criticized for losing character texture once it reaches “Dino Island”; expected to do well internationally, especially in China), 28 Years Later (Danny Boyle/Alex Garland; praised freshness and energy; sequel already filmed with Nia DaCosta), Megan 2.0 (criticized for delayed sequel timing and shifting from horror to action; debate about whether it implies AI can be “good”), and F1 (Brad Pitt; fun racing sequences; box-office and studio comeback context). Then they predict Emmy nominees across drama, comedy, and limited series, debating frontrunners like Severance vs The Pit and Kathy Bates vs other lead actresses.

Guests

Savannah Walsh (Vanity Fair staff writer, Emmy beat).

Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.

Chapters

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Summer Box Office Check-In

0:45 to 2:37

Discussion on recent summer box office releases including 'Jurassic World Rebirth'.

“ahead of the announcements on July 15th.”

Franchise Continuity Challenges

2:37 to 4:53

Exploring the challenges of continuing successful film franchises like 'Jurassic World'.

“But yeah, this is a franchise that I think obviously means an enormous deal to Universal.”

The Reception of '28 Years Later'

4:53 to 7:27

Hosts discuss the recent success of '28 Years Later' and its franchise potential.

“I'm going to kind of touch on this in my review, but I just don't really know where you go.”

Critique of 'Megan 2.0'

7:27 to 9:51

Hosts critique the sequel 'Megan 2.0' and its shift in genre and audience reception.

“I did not see this movie purely because interest unfortunately faded as I saw the reviews and the box office numbers.”

Box Office Success of 'F1'

9:51 to 10:35

Analysis of 'F1's box office performance and its appeal as a star vehicle for Brad Pitt.

“Just what we need, a movie telling us that AI can be good.”

Notable Films and Re-Releases

10:35 to 13:55

Discussion on upcoming films, re-releases, and their potential impact on the market.

“It's not Top Gun Maverick, even if it is also directed by Joseph Kaczynski.”

Drama Series Predictions: Key Contenders

14:32 to 18:14

The team discusses potential nominees for Best Drama Series and analyzes various shows' chances.

“It's me, Richard, and Savannah Walsh, Family Fair staff writer who's joining us.”

Frontrunners for Best Drama: Severance vs. The Pit

18:14 to 20:48

A deep dive into the competition between Severance and The Pit for Best Drama Series.

“I think it was still a pretty big ratings hit, but I would say that those two genre shows might be in jeopardy.”

Lead Actor Predictions: Drama Category

20:48 to 21:47

The hosts predict nominees for Best Actor in a Drama Series and discuss their chances.

“to lead actor in a drama because that's where I almost feel like the pit is a lot to win.”

Lead Actor in a Drama: Key Contenders

21:47 to 24:30

Discussion of leading candidates for Best Actor, including notable performances and industry buzz.

“I also think anecdotally, I've noticed that a lot of people, I think definitely inspired by the pit, are going back and binge watching ER where Noah Wiley is playing.”
Show all 23 chapters

Best Actress Predictions: Drama Category

24:30 to 27:33

Insights into the race for Best Actress in a Drama Series and the expected nominees.

“Billy Bob Thornton is not Nicole Kidman.”

Comedy Category Transition: Predictions Ahead

27:33 to 28:00

Transitioning to predictions for the comedy category, highlighting the debates on nominees.

Emmy Predictions: The Case for Nicola Coughlin

28:00 to 29:02

Debating the potential Emmy nominations for various performances and shows.

“let's say, demographics within the Academy.”

Comedy Nominations: The Bear's Uncertain Future

29:03 to 31:00

Discussing the nominees for the comedy category and the uncertain future of 'The Bear'.

“All of these shows have been kind of bubbling in the conversation since they premiered.”

Shifts in Reception: The Bear and Ted Lasso

31:01 to 33:11

Exploring the shift in audience perception of 'The Bear' and similar shows like 'Ted Lasso'.

“I think it's still enough of a mainstay to make it in here, but I completely agree, Richard, that it does feel like it's on its last legs.”

Hacks: Defending the Title and Competition

33:12 to 34:46

Evaluating 'Hacks' chances for Emmy nominations against strong contenders.

“It needs to be a character death every week, sad plaintiff music, underscoring every scene.”

Best Actress Predictions: Selena Gomez and Others

34:47 to 37:17

Analyzing the potential nominees for Best Actress in a Comedy category and their chances.

“It does feel inevitable that it's coming down to the two of them.”

Best Actor Predictions: Who Will Take Home the Emmy?

37:18 to 39:42

Discussing the nominees for Best Actor in a Comedy and predicting potential winners.

“And while The Four Seasons wasn't the most rapturous to receive show, it's been a hit for Netflix.”

Final Emmy Predictions: Limited Series and More

39:43 to 41:20

Wrapping up with predictions for limited series categories and other Emmy nominations.

“Yeah, the comedy is never coming from him.”

Emmy Nomination Predictions Overview

42:01 to 43:54

The hosts discuss their predictions for the Emmy nominations in various categories.

“This is a fixed five nominees in this category, which is not enough in my opinion.”

Assessing 'Monsters' and its Impact

43:55 to 45:56

A detailed analysis of the 'Monsters' show and its reception among audiences and critics.

“Yeah, my going out on a limb was going with two under-seen, critically acclaimed FX shows, the other being Say Nothing, which was way back in the fall.”

Best Actor and Actress Discussions

45:57 to 49:06

The hosts explore predictions for Best Actor and Actress categories and the contenders' backgrounds.

“Nisi Nash Betts even won an Emmy for that show.”

The Changing Landscape of TV Movies

49:07 to 53:01

Discussion on the implications of streaming films being classified as TV movies for award considerations.

“like Bella Ramsey, is non-binary, uses they, them pronouns, but has chosen to run in Best Actress because they have to choose one or the other.”
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Transcript

Automatic transcript. May contain errors.

0:04Hello and welcome to Little Gold Men, Vanity Fair's podcast for film, TV, and awards lovers. I'm David Canfield. I'm Richard Lawson. No Rebecca Fort today. She is on a well-deserved vacation, so we are going to hold down the fort. And we've got a lot to discuss today. But before we get started, just a reminder that next week will be our first book club episode. we'll be discussing the history of sound and its upcoming film adaptation with special guest and author of the book, Ben Shattuck. If you've been reading along and have any questions you'd like us to discuss about the story or the film, or if you have any questions for Ben, please send us an email to littlegoldman at vf.com.

0:41And because we're doing that next week, today is our last chance to share our Emmy nominations predictions ahead of the announcements on July 15th. So we're going to get into all the major categories later on, along with special guest Savannah Walsh a Vanity Fair staff writer who you've heard on this podcast before. But first, Richard and I are going to do a little check-in on the summer box office. A bunch of big movies have either just premiered or are soon coming. F1, 28 Days Later, Megan 2.0, Jurassic World Rebirth. Where should we start? I suppose Jurassic World Rebirth, Richard, since your review just went up on VanityFair.com and it is hitting theaters this Friday, the big 4th of July tentpole release.

1:21Are we reborn? No, we're not. The movie opens with like, you know, it's post-Jurassic World Dominion. So dinosaurs have like invaded the planet, but then kind of receded into like they just live in basically the equator because it's the only climate that can sustain them. And the general human public has kind of moved past their dinosaur fascination. They're not going to parks. They're not going to museums. They don't really care. And it's funny that the movie is like, we understand that you might not care about this movie either. but we're going to try to give you reasons too and I don't know if they quite do that like the action scenes are fine the performances are you know engaging enough there's nothing egregiously wrong with it it just feels sort of like eh I don't know if that eh will be echoed at the box office because these movies are pretty bulletproof it feels like especially overseas this is one of the rare franchises that I'm pretty sure still plays very well in China which is a huge deal for American studios So I'm not really worried about its box office futures, but I don't think that this seventh movie in the franchise gives us any reason to hope or even expect an eighth.

2:27Although we should probably expect it, but not hope for it. It's tracking very well. We'll know more by the time this podcast goes up and previews start on Thursday night. But yeah, this is a franchise that I think obviously means an enormous deal to Universal. Netflix's Bella Majaria has repeatedly said that if there were one franchise she could steal, it would be the Jurassic franchise for Netflix. So its value is well-known, and I think bulletproof is the right word. To me, not just because I wrote a cover story on Scarlett Johansson partly pegged to this film, but the cast was the most exciting thing about it.

3:05She's the new lead. You've got a really great supporting cast behind her that felt a little bit more elevated, maybe, from your usual summer blockbuster. Mahershala Ali, Jonathan Bailey, Rupert Friend how did that all come together? I like the cast a lot I think it's very smartly cast and not just because she's our cover star but I think that Johansson adds a really interesting kind of levity to everything she's playing the character she's a mercenary she's been through a lot of shit she's grieving the loss of a friend and yet there's a levity to it there's a sort of easiness that I think someone really only of Johansson's star caliber and you know career experience can bring to that and I think the screenwriter David Cupp who wrote the original screenplay for the 1993 film.

3:47Well, he adapted the Crichton novel, obviously. But you feel a little of the texture of that first movie in this and its opening stretches where you're getting to know characters in a sort of idiosyncratic way. Johansson is great at adding to that, as is Ali, as is Rupert Friend, as is Jonathan Bailey. My problem is that once they kind of get to Dino Island, the demands of an international studio blockbuster take precedent. And so they kind of lose the characters. I don't think that anything about the performances suffers for the rest of the film. You just don't really know the people as well as you'd hope to.

4:21Yeah, I'm a little bummed to hear that. I got to see some footage in advance of writing the cover story for Vanity Fair, and it did seem to have this sort of throwback spirit to it. And I think Gareth Edwards has been very open about wanting to make a film with those early Spielbergian touches. And you did get like Scarlett Johansson's introductory scene, which felt really fun. and very much in the spirit of those early films. I do wonder, though, at this point, how you see a franchise like this continuing beyond, given that it does feel like it's not exactly moving the needle forward in any way.

4:55Yeah, I just don't know. I'm going to kind of touch on this in my review, but I just don't really know where you go. We've done, oh wait, there's a second island twice now, right? That was Lost World, Jurassic Park in 97, and now this one is a third island. The dinosaurs, I keep calling them monsters, The dinosaurs have come to the mainland several times now. We do see some ocean stuff in this one. That feels new. Maybe I'm forgetting something, but I think this is the first time we've really had like a Jaws slash Moby Dick kind of sequence in one of these movies. So that feels fresher. But I don't know.

5:29I kind of end my review on a joke of like, I guess they send them to space. Because yeah, it's going to be really tough to crack what a worthwhile story is. I guess maybe one thing is they don't really care. As long as there are big action scenes they can sell in the trailers and sell abroad, does it really matter if there's like a workable story? So I unfortunately did not get to catch a pre-screening of this one just for various travel-related reasons. But one I have seen that has come out, done pretty well at the box office, and that is perhaps a model of how to continue a franchise that maybe doesn't seem like it's going to continue is 28 Years Later, Danny Boyle's film.

6:06We touched on it very briefly. in an earlier episode, but I was really taken with this new entrant in the franchise, and particularly what Danny Boyle and screenwriter Alex Garland were able to bring to it, something that felt pretty fresh to me. Yeah, yeah. And I'm glad to see it's doing well. It's not going to be... It kind of dropped off pretty significantly in its second week in North America, but you kind of expect that from a horror. It didn't have the best cinema score, you know, the audience exit polling. But it's creative. it's strange it kept me engaged I'm now very curious about the sequel that's already been filmed with a different director Nia DaCosta so we'll see I think it went about as well as I hoped it would yeah I think that it's another example of one of these franchise films that's quite well cast in addition to Ralph Fiennes just got a really interesting group of actors you've got a third film that is yet to be greenlit, but as Jodie Comer and others have said, they expect it to be greenlit.

7:12They hope it will be greenlit. And I'm just glad a franchise can come back like this with a level of energy and excitement, even as it does drop off. You can feel it being talked about a lot. I'm sure it'll do well on BOD, which is always a big bump for genre movies. That was not the case for Megan 2.0. I did not see this movie purely because interest unfortunately faded as I saw the reviews and the box office numbers. I don't usually care about box office numbers, but in this one's case, it did feel like a direct reflection of how people were responding to the movie. Yeah, I mean, I wanted to root for it because, I mean, it's so rare that a documentary gets a sequel, let alone makes as much money as the first doc did.

7:54No, I'm kidding, of course, it's not a documentary, although I wish it was, in a way. But the problem with Megan 2.0 is, well, twofold. One, they waited way too long to release a sequel. The first one came out January 2023, I'm pretty sure. So that's like two and a half years ago. And for a movie that really relied on a lot of memeable marketing, that's just way too long to let the joke grow stale. I think the other issue is that they changed the genre. They wanted to do a sort of Terminator 2 thing where the robot from the first one who was bad becomes good in the second one because there's an even worse robot out there.

8:31But that shifts it from horror to action in a way that doesn't really work. And so you have a kind of old joke then being retold in a different way. And it just, it doesn't really hold together. The movie is perfectly well made. It just doesn't really have any excitement to it in a way that clearly the studio was hoping for. The size of the success of the original Megan seemed to catch everybody off guard. And so it's interesting that the way that you're describing the sequel, which again, I have not seen and sadly don't have many plans to see, I seem to forget what drew people into the first one and made it such a phenomenon was the camp factor and the fact that it was fun and weird and had all of these elements that you didn't think would go together, but because of the kind of oddness of the movie did.

9:18There are moments that really work, and I think Alison Williams is still good in it. But I think perhaps the most galling thing about Megan 2.0 for me is by the end, and this is not really spoiling anything, but just in case you can fast forward, but toward the end, you're like, wait a second. Are they arguing that actually AI is good as long as we train it to be good? Because I don't agree with that based on everything I've seen and read about AI. So if we've now shifted from just in 2022, to AI is bad, you know, avoid AI, to like, well, actually, I don't really like that trajectory. Just what we need, a movie telling us that AI can be good.

9:54Yeah, as long as we teach it to be good, that's all we have to do. Megan 2.0 was crushed at the box office by F1. A notable story on multiple levels. This was the highest-grossing film for Apple Original Films. They released it with Warner Brothers, who distributed it theatrically. A big comeback for them. They've had some real duds at the box office or, you know, near box office in the case of a movie like Wolves. They decided just not to give that a wide release after promising to do that. So this was probably very needed for that arm of the studio. And it's also a star vehicle for Brad Pitt, proving he can still bring people in.

10:32I thought the movie was fun and very well made. The racing sequences were great. It's not Top Gun Maverick, even if it is also directed by Joseph Kaczynski. It's not even necessarily close. it doesn't have the sweeping melodramatic nostalgia factor that Top Gun Maverick had unexpectedly in spades that I think propelled it to a Best Picture nomination among other Oscar nominations I don't think that will be the same fate of F1 I think it'll continue to make money throughout the holiday and all that but I liked it I think it's a fun kind of throwback to that sort of macho 90s kind of thing where the old guy teaches the young guy how it's really done and he's a little reckless but maybe that's a good thing.

11:14It has original songs written for the movie. It feels old-fashioned. And the racing sequences are exciting. But I will say, maybe this is either a testament to my commitment to my people or a testament to the movie not quite getting me. It's that I had Pride plans on the Sunday that I saw it and the movie started late because there were 30 minutes of previews and ads. And I said, I have to go meet my friends to celebrate Pride. And so I left right before the last race. So either I'm the most devoted gay person ever or the movie just wasn't holding me. Because I would not have left 20 minutes before the end of Topman Maverick.

11:49I would not have. I would have just said, my friends can wait. But in this case, I didn't. I think it's a commentary on F1. Yeah. But also, is F1 the most pride movie choice you could make? Probably not. Well, I mean, Carrie Condon is in it and she's, I think, an ally, if nothing else. An ally and actually terrific in the movie. I think everyone's good. But Damson Nidris, as the kind of young upstart racer, is really good to look at. But I wanted his character to be a bit more dynamic. I think they give so much of the charm and personality to Brad Pitt's character that it's hard for anyone to compete with that.

12:24But I think it feels a little lopsided in its current form. I was wondering about that. Simone Ashley was cut from the film. It feels so engineered around Brad Pitt. And you do wonder how much of that happened in post-production and what the shape of the movie was. In the script phase or even in the filming of it. So she would have been a love interest for Damson Nitrous's character. Is that the idea? I believe so, yeah. Yeah. Well, we'll keep tabs on the summer box office as we get deeper into July and August. And some more big films are released. Also, some nice things happening at the specialty box office.

12:58Sorry Baby, one of our favorites of the year. Made some money. It's opening weekend. I hope that continues. Yeah. Yeah, that's good for that movie from A24. Also, A24 Materialist is holding on pretty strong. you know yeah it's doing quite well actually you know that's making them some money which is great and did you see the re-release of the Wong Kar Wai film In the Mood for Love many consider that his best film it released in one theater and made a ton of money and it's going to expand even further I think in the coming days so maybe there's interest in re-releases I would love to see more of those like we talked about last week I did not see that that's great news yeah the re-release market is ever ripe I think for these studios to keep tapping we don't know how to make good new things, so we're just going to re-release our old stuff.

13:43Just remind you of Wong Kar Wai and Ang Lee and people who make great movies, and maybe that will make money for us. I want like a big October re-release of like The Pelican Brief. Why not? Why not? We're going to take a quick break, and when we come back, Savannah Walsh will join us for our Emmy nominations predictions. Stay with us.

14:13Welcome back to Little Goldman from Vanity Fair. So Emmy nominations will be announced in less than two weeks, and we're going to share our final predictions today, since next week we'll be having a special book club episode. You can read the predictions that I wrote with Rebecca Ford and Hilary Bussis over on VanityFair.com. So we're going to go through the major categories here. It's me, Richard, and Savannah Walsh, Family Fair staff writer who's joining us. Hi, Savannah.

14:39Savannah Walsh:Hello. How is everyone? We're ready to talk about Emmys. You have been on the beat for us in various ways all season, Savannah, so we're excited to get your insights on all of these categories. Let's start with the drama categories. I believe I predicted best drama series, so you can all tell me how right or wrong I am. And for that category, I had Andor, The Diplomat The Last of Us Paradise The Pit Severance Slow Horses and The White Lotus the category comes in at a fixed eight nominees is this right? I think so it feels right to me I don't think there's anything missing but Richard correct me if I'm wrong I mean I guess it would be tempting to say Squid Game because that was big in its first season you know during the American TV Awards circuit but I just feel like season two didn't catch fire in quite the same way Season three just aired, which I think would help the shows boost their profile a bit.

15:38But I don't know. I think that's probably a sensible omission. I do wonder, though, speaking of last seasons, if Handmaid's Tale might sneak in there as kind of a goodbye. Yeah, that was the one I was wondering about more than Squid Game. I think Squid Game probably would have benefited from season three airing in the voting window, even if it wouldn't have been eligible because it got a little bit more buzzed in season two, I think. But Handmaid's Tale did have a very, popular run. It charted very high on Nielsen. The reviews were stronger than they'd been in a few years. And like Squid Game, at the beginning of its run, The Handmaid's Tale was a huge Emmys player.

16:14It won Best Drama, it won Writing, Directing. Elizabeth Moss won Best Actress. It feels like maybe there's still enough underlying support there to bring it back. It was only a few years ago that it got like, I want to say like 20 Emmy nominations out of nowhere, and we all were like, wow, Emmy voters still really care about The Handmaid's Tale. It's kind Kind of hard to tell given that it fell off so much last year, but I've got my eye on it.

16:36Savannah Walsh:Yeah, I also wonder about Paradise. You know, I think it's probably on the bubble, but I know that Dan Fogelman's last show, This Is Us, did very well with Emmy voters. So I wonder if that's one to keep an eye on too. And Paradise was a show that was really not on my radar at all until someone texted me and said, spoiler alert, fast forward if you don't want to hear a spoiler alert for Paradise. They were like, it's like that show under the dome. And then I saw more and more people online or even just in conversation out in the world. People were like, oh, you're a critic. Have you seen Paradise?

17:07And I was like, how does everyone know to watch this show? But I think some of those people who are watching the show are definitely in the Academy. I think that's an interesting and probably likely pick. The last contender, I think, that could break in here and that Peacock would very much love to see break in here is the Day of the Jackal with Eddie Redmayne. this show charted for Peacock. It did pretty well. I got some precursor nominations at the Globes, etc. But it does feel like maybe it's just a little bit outside of that awards space, or at least being considered that way at the stage compared to these other shows.

17:43And Peacock has yet to crack a top scripted series category, which is perhaps the bigger hurdle here. I think if I was going to say that anyone in the eight that we have listed as likely nominees were to swap out, it would either be Andor or Last of Us. Andor had such a well-regarded second and final season that I would hope that the Academy would get past their... I mean, I want to say they have a Star Wars bias, but they do like The Mandalorian, so maybe I'm wrong about that. But Last of Us, I feel like the season was not as strong as season one. It was not as well-received critically. I think it was still a pretty big ratings hit, but I would say that those two genre shows might be in jeopardy.

18:23And then there are three other genre shows, Squid Game, Handmaid's Tale, and Jackal waiting to take their place. And Last of Us actually fell off in the ratings over the course of its second season. I would say that the way that this show performed both critically and commercially was not what HBO would have hoped for. Savannah, over the last few months, Rebecca Richard and I have been debating some version of The Pit versus Severance as to who's going to win this award. I think there were other shows that seemed more in it a few months ago, including The Last of Us. Where are you right now on who you see as the frontrunner?

18:57Savannah Walsh:It's tight. It's difficult. I think I'm leaning towards Severance, though. I feel like The Pit, people are finding it still. And Severance, I mean, it's just rare that a show comes back after such a long time and it has everybody still with it. You know, the appetite is still there, and even more so, it's only gained on its audience and the people that are discussing it, which speaks to its strength. And I just think it's going to be difficult for a freshman series drama to overtake it. I don't know. I also think that Severance has the slightly added benefit of it's a show that demands and rewards close viewing.

19:37You know, you kind of feel like you're in a little in-the-know club because you get every little Easter egg and you know the sort of answers to various inscrutable mysteries. And so people feel sort of pride in the work they've put into watching the show. And The Pit is certainly not easy to watch with all of its medical horror, but it's just a bit lower lift, I think, in a lot of ways. And sometimes I think at the Emmys, the show that's, you know, sort of demands more of the audience than gets its respect come Emmetime. I think that's right. There's also a really obvious big vote for the pit, which we'll get to in a minute in Best Actor.

20:13Whereas Severance, if you want to honor that show and you want to be confident it gets a big moment at the Emmys, this is kind of the place to do it. There's a lot of places it could win, but I don't think it's even considered a frontrunner anywhere but maybe the top category in some writing, directing, etc. So I think that works in its favor too. That said, I'm just starting to be swayed by pit momentum. I think it can't be stopped. And I think my beloved friends at the Pittsburgh hospital are going to pull it out. That's where I'm at right now. Well, I feel like that's a good way to switch over to lead actor in a drama because that's where I almost feel like the pit is a lot to win.

20:54Or I mean, definitely nomination. We're talking about nominations right now. But our predicted nominees are Sterling K. Brown for Paradise, Gary Oldman for Slow Horses, Pedro Pascal for The Last of Us, Adam Scott for Severance, and Noah Wiley for The Pit. All of these shows, as just mentioned, are also being predicted in Best Drama. But yeah, I'm with you, Richard. I think Noah Wiley's got this in the bag.

21:15Savannah Walsh:Yeah, I will say I was at the Gotham TV Awards recently, and he was by far the most coveted person in the room. I mean, people were so excited to just have a moment to talk to him and about the show, and I think the industry support for him is pretty evident. Savannah, did you go up to him and say, fix me, Dr. Robbie? It's okay if you did. I didn't. I wanted to. The urge was definitely there, but I managed to keep my composure somehow. Instead, you said, I'll fix you, Dr. Robbie. Wow. Exactly. Yeah. I also think anecdotally, I've noticed that a lot of people, I think definitely inspired by the pit, are going back and binge watching ER where Noah Wiley is playing.

21:58a similar kind of character, and that can only help him. I feel sort of uneasy about these predictions. I also predicted this category. Peter Pascal was only in three episodes of The Last of Us this season. He could have technically gone supporting. He chose to stay in lead where he was nominated last year. I think he could fall out. I'm not sure how much passion there is for Gary Oldman and Slow Horses, even though he is Gary Oldman and the show did win a big Emmy last year. or maybe I'm just trying to come up with reasons for Diego Luna to get nominated for Andor because he's brilliant in that show.

22:32He was not nominated for the first season and it feels crazy to me. He would never get any recognition for that performance.

22:38Savannah Walsh:I think he could make it in. I think a lot of people are finding that show this year and anytime they talk about it, his name is said in the same sentence. I could definitely see him in here. Hope so. And it's the last time they can reward him for the show given that it's just a two-season run. I think you know kind of along those same lines like Lee Jung-jae who did win American Awards for the first season of Squid Game I think maybe next year when you know the third and final season of Squid Game is being assessed that he could be back in the mix for that but maybe not this kind of more interval season I think we have listed as an alt in actor in a drama is Billy Bob Thornton and I think that's one to look out for because as much as Landman I have watched kind of a lot of it weirdly is kind of egregious in a lot of ways and like offensive in others, deliberately so.

23:31I've read some stuff from scientists who were like, you know those monologues that Thornton delivers so well about telling straight facts about oil? Most of that is actually not accurate. But I don't think that really matters because Thornton is, despite the content of the series being, you know, let's say controversial, he is really good in that role and it's a good old-fashioned kind of towering actor, anti-hero performance. And that goes a long way with the Academy, at least it used to. He also campaigned. He did a roundtable. He did an Actors on Actors with Kathy Bates, which we will talk about in a moment.

24:08And Billy Bob Thornton is an industry icon, and I feel like he's one of those rare actors. I mean, he has been nominated before for Fargo, but seeing a star of his stature do a continuing television series still feels like there's some novelty to it. He's one of those guys where, you know, he's not Nicole Kidman. It's still newsy that he's doing it. You heard it here first. Only a little bit. Billy Bob Thornton is not Nicole Kidman. You know, we try to break news here on the podcast in this fast-paced news class. At least in subtle ways, he's not.

24:37Savannah Walsh:True. Let's move on to Best Actress. The predicted nominees via Rebecca Ford are Kathy Bates for Matlock, Britt Lauer for Severance, Elizabeth Moss for The Handmaid's Tale, Bella Ramsey for The Last of Us, and Keri Russell for The Diplomat. Again, it just feels like a pretty obvious five to me. There are some that I'm sad or not here, but unfortunately, you can't always get what you want with the Emmys. Yeah, I think this seems right. David had an amazing piece with Kathy Bates on Matlock, and it certainly just feels like such a crowning moment for her, her return to TV. I mean, her last Emmy win was for, like, Harry's Law, is that right?

Read the full transcript

25:18It was for American Horror Story, actually.

25:21Savannah Walsh:They love giving her awards. They do. So that feels like something that they are very comfortable doing. And I'm excited to see her on the stage. I don't know. This one feels obvious to me. But what do you guys think? Yeah, I think Kathy Bates is definitely, she's for sure getting nominated. And I think is a strong contender to win. I also think, you know, there are plenty of people in the Academy who love to see a broadcast network have a success. You know, it feels more and more that the broadcast networks get almost totally shut out at the Emmys, even in comedy these days. So Kathy Bates having a hit show that people respect, you know, to an extent.

25:59I mean, it's not like perfect television, but it's good enough and she's great on it. Yeah, and it's more down the middle. It's more straightforward. They can reward the weirder stuff, I think, in other categories. She also has that Glenn Close ability to make every awards win feel like a shock and moving. She always, I feel like every speech I've seen of hers, and maybe I've rewatched a few on YouTube, I won't confirm or deny. She just has that, you know, she carries the room with her as she walks up to the stage and really makes it feel like a moment. and her Critics' Choice win from earlier this year was the moment of that show, which is quite unusual for a TV win, you know, at a show with a bunch of would-be Oscar winners, eventual Oscar winners.

26:43And that's because she's Kathy Bates. She's a legend. And this show, while, yeah, not the best show on television, it is a great role for her, and she's terrific in it. I think she's kind of got it, if only because some of these other shows it's either like, it's not Brit Lauer's show, Severance, as great as she is on it. And The Last of Us, as we were talking about, just doesn't have the sheen it had last time around. So it seems like there's a path. We continue to be sad for the absence of Keira Knightley, which we've talked about. So great on Black Doves. I will one more time complain about Carrie Preston getting no traction for Elsbeth.

27:24A role she has won an Emmy for, but way down in guest actress for another show from another time. She's terrific on that show. but it does seem like this five is pretty locked in I mean there can't be two CBS lawyer performances you know I think they had to choose Bates over Preston even Preston's great on it but yeah I just think that show that's a hit too but it's just not as showy I guess as Kathy Bates but yeah the Keira Knightley one is a bit of a heartbreaker I think we also have listed as an alternative Marissa Abeya from Industry who has a really big arc on that show I just don't know that that show really has caught the attention of certain, let's say, demographics within the Academy.

28:04Savannah Walsh:I think that's a shame too. I thought her performance was so strong and she should absolutely be more in the conversation. Could not agree more. She did win a BAFTA. So if this were the Oscars and there were huge international voting overlap, perhaps that would give her more of a leg up. But it seems like a tough nut to crack. Another one that I personally would love to see, I don't think we will see it, but I think there's an argument for it, is Nicola Coughlin from the last season of Bridgerton. It was their highest rated season to date. And it hasn't really gotten like consistent Emmy love since the first season where Reggie Jean-Page was nominated.

28:39Savannah Walsh:But I could see her sneaking in in a world. She did get the SAG nomination. You make a good point. And she's someone who's become such a kind of beloved face of that show even before she got her real showcase on the show. I could see that happening. That would be a nice surprise. Well, let's move on to comedy, which features many shows that would be debated as comedies as ever. This year, the eight shows we're predicting are Abbott Elementary, The Bear, Hacks, which won last year, Nobody Wants This, Only Murders in the Building, Shrinking, The Studio, and What We Do in the Shadows. All of these shows have been kind of bubbling in the conversation since they premiered.

29:23I don't think anything is particularly surprising here. I do wonder if maybe, you know, like the Emmys are famous for just being like, oh, if the show's still on and we've nominated it in the past or given it in awards in the past, we'll just add it to the list again this year. I wonder if The Bear maybe was dinged enough, not only from a third season that people didn't love, but the fourth season just premiered. And I was among many critics who were not that into it or not into it at all. I don't know what other audiences think about it yet. It's a little too soon to tell. But maybe this is kind of the thing that kills the momentum for that show.

29:59And something like, you know, a fresher show like Four Seasons pops in there. Or Poker Face even. But, I mean, the bear has been strong historically. I just think it's fallen down pretty precipitously, I think.

30:12Savannah Walsh:I was just saying a friend of mine who, like, loved the first two seasons just texted me and was like, is there a new season of the bear, like, on Hulu? And I'm like, yes. Like, there was absolutely no promotion for it, which is not, I don't know where their head is at with that, but I think it definitely speaks to the show falling a bit out of the cultural consciousness. It is bizarre the way that this show got rolled out this particular season, because one would think that after what was pretty much universally considered a step down at minimum from where it had been before and audience interest kind of went along with it, that there would be a bigger push.

30:50But perhaps the cast has just gotten a little bit too big and there was just not enough enthusiasm to really get it out there again. but it feels like it already came and went. I think it's actually a good thing that voting closed before the season premiered, but there wasn't even any promotional bump in advance of the season that was during voting that they could have used to try to wedge themselves back in in some way. I think it's still enough of a mainstay to make it in here, but I completely agree, Richard, that it does feel like it's on its last legs. unless something changes in the way that the show is promoted, the way that the cast gets out there.

31:32Because as of now, it just feels like we're talking about Jeremy Allen White's film career, we're talking about Iowa Debris' film career, we're talking about Fantastic Four for Ebon Moss, Backrock. There's not much bear in these guys' lives anymore. I mean, maybe they should try it in drama next time. Yeah. See how that goes. The orange is the new black strategy. Did you see, I think she's been on the podcast years ago, but Tara Arellano, who's a writer and podcaster, she did a piece for Cracked.com that was a list of all 35 jokes in this new season of The Bear. She was like, no, I'm not saying the best 35 jokes.

32:07She's saying I'm the only 35 jokes in the whole season of the comedy. That's amazing. And some of them barely even qualified as jokes. But anyway, I'm being too hard on that show. It's just not a comedy. It never has been. I mean, I had this moment watching season four, which I wasn't too high on either. and I was just like, was I wrong about the first two seasons? Because Richard, you've kind of been on this train the whole time and I feel like I need to go back and remember what I loved about the show when I first started it because something about it, I've done a full 180 in the way that I even encounter it at this point.

32:40I'm not sure what happened.

32:41Savannah Walsh:I agree. And honestly, it's been reminding me of like Ted Lasso where season one comes out and everyone loved it so much and it like fed something in us And then season two, people got the ick over it. Like it was just not something that people wanted to engage with anymore. And I feel like The Bear after season two, a similar phenomenon has been happening. It's been fascinating. And ironically, Ted Lasso's Emmy run was stopped by The Bear. Yeah. So perhaps it's just an unfortunate cycle that the Emmys are perpetuating. All right. Abbott Elementary next season. It needs to be a character death every week, sad plaintiff music, underscoring every scene.

33:19and then they'll finally win more comedy Emmys. I think it just has to be about Principal Coleman fighting to save Abbott Elementary and it becomes a really earnest portrait of a reformed principal. And then a 70-minute standalone episode that's about a side character's family or something. Savannah, you've been on the Hacks beat for us all season. The show pulled off a thrilling upset last year. I believe we slacked each other when it won with joy. Where do you see it this season? Do you think it's in a good position to defend its title? Obviously, the studio feels like a very strong insurgent contender.

33:53Savannah Walsh:Yeah, I mean, I think it was such a joy to have the season be so good because I think, you know, season two, it sort of had a bear thing where people were not as high on it as they were in the first season. Season three felt like it was redemption. And then season four has honestly been one of my favorites. I think it's been such a great sort of commentary on showbiz and just stellar from start to slightly finish. The finale is interesting. Divisive. Yes. I think it's in a good position, but the studio feels like the obvious choice here. I could see Hannah Einbinder taking it and supporting Actress this season.

34:34Savannah Walsh:It feels overdue. It feels like it could have happened last year. So I don't know that Hacks will be back-to-back. I just feel like the studio is such a, you know, kind of showbiz people making something about showbiz, like even more than haxes that people love. So that feels like the obvious one. It does feel inevitable that it's coming down to the two of them. Yeah. Moving on to Best Actress in a Comedy, our predicted nominees are Kristen Bell for Nobody Wants This, Quinta Brunson for Abbott Elementary, Iowa Debris for The Bear, Selena Gomez for Only Murders in the Building, and Jean Smart for Hacks.

35:12The question here is Selena Gomez. She did get her first nomination for the show last season. She had not been nominated for the first two seasons. And with only five slots, there is a question of just how strong of a contender is she in this space? How seriously is she taken by Emmy voters at this stage? I would argue pretty seriously. I think Emilia Perez even only kind of bolstered her standing as a series actor in the industry, and that should help get her through.

35:38Savannah Walsh:I don't know. I don't know. It's almost like Mandy Moore getting in for This Is Us, like one year and then never again. It kind of feels like that to me. It took her so long to get any recognition. And then when I think about this year's lineup, it's like Tina Fey is in the conversation and I think the Emmys love any chance they have to get her up on stage or at least in the room for the Emmys. I don't know. Yeah. I mean, it's a stacked race. And the question is just, do they love Only Murders so much at this stage that she can withstand that? But in addition to Tina Fey, who has done a lot of campaigning, it's worth noting for the four seasons, you have Kate Hudson, who has done a lot of campaigning for Running Point, a show that we have been very high on on this podcast.

36:24And I remain a little perplexed as to why it's not, you know, more of an awards thing. But I think it's just the fact that it was such a commercial hit has kind of preempted any awards conversation. Natasha Lyonne was nominated for the first season of Poker Face. And that show is still somewhat popular. It's hard for me to track kind of how much enthusiasm there is for it. But she's great on that show. Bridget Everett we've talked about for somebody somewhere. I put her in this little alt section in our doc just as a last gasp of hope. And don't be shocked if Uzo Aduba pops up for The Residents.

36:59I think that was an underperform for Netflix overall, and critics were mixed on it. but few are beloved by the television academy as Zuzo Adube is. Richard, is there anyone in that group you'd pick as a potential spoiler? I mean, I think Tina Fey shouldn't be counted out. This is her first time leading a TV show since 30 Rock. And while The Four Seasons wasn't the most rapturous to receive show, it's been a hit for Netflix. She's a big name. She's beloved in the TV industry. Yeah, maybe The Mayor or whatever that show is that she co-created didn't do so well, and Kimmy Schmidt kind of flew under the radar for the most part, but she wasn't the lead of those shows, and now she's back, and I don't know, I could see people seeing her name as a potential nominee and just checking that box on the ballot.

37:45Savannah Walsh:If Bridget Everett got in for somebody somewhere, that would be my highlight of the morning, probably. Oh, God. That show is so great, and it's just so underappreciated. I can't let it go. I just want it to happen so badly. Me too. I think if there were a New York Emmys, she'd be fine, but... It has happened for HBO shows in the past, which is why I am still holding out hope. Laurie Metcalf got nominated for the last season of Getting On, somewhat out of nowhere. Laura Dern got in for the last season of Enlightened. And this was kind of pre-Laura Dern, Oscar winner, Big Little Lies. She was still a little bit more on the fringe, let's say, as an awards contender.

38:24So maybe. You never know. So, over in Best Actor, Rebecca predicted these five nominees for us. Adam Brody for Nobody Wants This, Seth Rogen for The Studio, Jason Segel for Shrinking, Martin Short for Only Murders in the Building, and Jeremy Allen White for The Bear. Notably, Steve Martin, also of Only Murders in the Building, not in this list. He was snubbed a couple years ago, but he did make it back in last year. Yeah, but I think Short is the safer pick if they're going to divide. You know, if they're only going to nominate one, I think it's likely to be Short over Martin. Adam Brody, that's an interesting prediction.

38:59I think that's probably likely, although he can't go to the ceremony because that's the day of our wedding. So we're going to be otherwise occupied, unfortunately. I mean, fortunately for me, but... But you guys are getting married in the California coast, so I don't think it's a far drive. That's true. That's true. We'll zoom in. But yeah, I mean, Brody, I don't think he'll win. I think that probably right now the front order would be Seth Rogen, actually, because, you know, like we said, the studio is fresh, exciting. It's about Hollywood. people like Seth Rogen. But that feels like a pretty safe group of nominees.

39:30Even though the bear is at a slump, I don't see Jeremy Allen White not getting nominated again. Well, he's so funny on it. Hilarious. He is really good on the show, but it is among the most dramatic performances on television. Yeah, the comedy is never coming from him. I think it's going to be Martin Short. I think this is his year. He did win the SAG Award in a big upset, and it feels more open than it did even just a year ago with Jeremy Ellen White sort of steamrolling. Martin Short has never won an acting Emmy. We've got to fix that.

40:03Savannah Walsh:Yeah, that's wild. And I mean, if he thanks Meryl Streep from the stage, then that would be amazing too. Or if he accepts as Jiminy Glick. Accepting as Jiminy Glick and thanking Meryl Streep from the stage would be a real mindfuck, but I would love to see it. I also, I mean, I think he's certainly in the conversation to Ted Danson. did people watch A Man on the Inside? It's hard to know but I know that he is beloved by the Academy. My mom did, she texted me about it as if it was the must-see show of the season. I watched that whole season too and he's really good on it in the way that Ted Danson has gradually just become this reliable sort of elder statesman of thinking person's comedy, you know and yeah, he's beloved by the Academy so I could see him.

40:52I guess the question is, who does he replace? And I would say probably Jason Segel.

40:58Savannah Walsh:Yeah, I would say so too. I think Shrinking is a widely liked show, but when you have five slots in these categories, it feels like a show that could be bumped out in a few places, and that's one of them. He did make it in for the first season, but all these other contenders feel stronger than him, so if there is a surprise, I think he'd fall out. Right. Well, stay with us for more Emmy nomination predictions when we come back after a quick break.

41:35Welcome back to Little Gold Men from Vanity Fair. We're sharing our final predictions for Emmy nominations, which will be revealed on July 15th. We're going to now move on to the limited series categories, beginning with our predictions for best limited or anthology series. I predicted these, and there's a lot of hope in these predictions, which are adolescence, dying for sex, the penguin, presumed innocent, and say nothing. This is a fixed five nominees in this category, which is not enough in my opinion. Does it really matter, though, because nothing is beating adolescence? Absolutely not. No.

42:10That is a runaway winner at this point. We're all very, very big fans of dying for sex on this podcast. Savannah, you got to talk to Jenny Slate, who's a safe bet to get nominated down in Supporting Actors. I feel pretty confident it'll get in here, at least, even as it was a critical darling that maybe didn't make the most waves in the streaming ratings, perhaps.

42:33Savannah Walsh:Yeah, I definitely—it feels like one of those kind of splashy, awards-y FX shows in the same vein as like a Fosse-Verdon, also starring Michelle Williams. I am surprised it hasn't made more of a splash. It's great performances based on a compelling true story, famous people involved. But I'm hoping that if it gets some nominations here, more people will check it out. I mean, cancer and women over 40 having sex. I mean, come on. Who wants that? Ratings, bananas. I think, yeah, I think the Michelle Williams factor, you know, gives it enough of a profile, certainly, that it'll get in here. Also, you know, the Emmys are a place where sometimes reviews do actually count for something.

43:13I also think that, you know, something that might be sort of on the bubble, like Dying for Sex, is only benefited from because you look at what else outside of this five could potentially get nominated. You know, you have the Menendez Brothers show, Monsters, which was sort of, people liked one episode in particular, but maybe the rest of it, people were a bit mixed on. Disclaimer from Alfonso Cuaron with Cate Blanchett. I don't know that that made enough of an impact when it debuted on Apple. Black Mirror, the Netflix, you know, anthology series has really, I think, people have gotten a bit tired of it, especially now that there are theatrically released movies that just feel like 90-minute Black Mirror episodes.

43:48So their style has been kind of stolen. So yeah, I think the five we have predicted, I think, is the most likely group. Yeah, my going out on a limb was going with two under-seen, critically acclaimed FX shows, the other being Say Nothing, which was way back in the fall. It did get some guild love, indicating industry people did watch it. It absolutely deserves to be in this group. But I think it's just a kind of classic Emmys question of, does the show that was, frankly, better get in? Or does the more popular show get in? Monsters was watched by millions more people. It does have that sort of tangential real-world impact and has stayed newsy.

44:30That could impact its standing. But it wasn't especially well-received outside of that episode. And I think there was actually a lot of discomfort around elements of that show. And I just wonder if, given that the way the ballot is structured, you can't vote for as many shows as you wanted to, unlike, you know, years past. Maybe that does keep a show like that out, especially when we know it'll get some acting nominations. Yeah, I think with Monsters, the problem is the episode we're talking about comes right in the middle of the season. and it's this single take episode where one of the brothers basically delineates this horrible history of sexual abuse suffered at the hands of his parents and then the subsequent episodes kind of undo that or call that all into question so the series ends on this slightly less than satisfying note of like, well wait, what am I supposed to take away from this?

45:19It does not really give you anything conclusive, which is maybe better art in a way, but it's just not very nourishing television at the same time, so yes, but I do think there are acting performances from that show that will get in. But I think as a whole, Monsters just didn't quite do what people hoped it would do.

45:36Savannah Walsh:I wonder though, I felt like there was similar controversy around the first season of the show, the Jeffrey Dahmer season with Evan Peters. It upset a lot of the real life victims' families and was controversial for kind of sexualizing a serial killer. And it still got nominated in this category. So I wonder if the proof is in the putting there. You might be right. Nisi Nash Betts even won an Emmy for that show. And I do think, to Richard's point, it will be getting some acting nominations, including in Best Actor. Our five predicted nominees there are Colin Farrell for The Penguin, Stephen Graham for Adolescence, Brian Tyree Henry for Dope Thief, Kevin Klein for Disclaimer, and Cooper Koch for Monsters of the Lyle and Eric Menendez Story.

46:20Cooper Koch will not be winning this category. I think it's going to be Colin Farrell, but Stephen Graham, just because of how strong adolescence is right now and how good he is in the show, shouldn't be counted out. And didn't he co-create it? He co-created it, he co-wrote every episode, yeah. Yeah, so I feel like people know that and they're going to be like, oh, Stephen Graham, hats off to you. The performances on adolescence are a little bit challenged in that it's only four episodes and not everyone is in each episode, right? But Stephen Graham is the most consistent presence, I think, if memory serves me.

46:54It might technically be Owen Cooper, who's running down and supporting it, who probably has the best chance for the show to win, an acting win. But there's a long history of child performances that are technically lead, going, supporting.

47:07Savannah Walsh:I wonder, too, I know Richard Gad won last year for Baby Reindeer in this category, and Adolescence and Baby Reindeer are drawing a lot of similarities for debuting on Netflix, and the format of them, and the, you know, popularity. But I wonder, you know, Richard Gad still won, but it felt like there wasn't a big showy physical transformation performance against it. I guess the closest would have maybe been Tom Hollander for playing Truman Capote in feud. But Colin Farrell, I mean, the physical transformation is pretty hard to look away from. I still think Tom Hollander should have won that Emmy.

47:42But anyway. Agreed. The thing about Stephen Graham, though, is he's been unlike Richard Gad in this industry for a long time. I would imagine a lot of people in the TV Academy know him, have worked with him, and he's so rarely given the chance to shine in a big project like this. So I think that really helps him. But Colin Farrell did beat Richard Gad at all the winter award shows, SAG, Globes, et cetera. So it's pretty close. In terms of the potential surprise in these predictions, I did not predict disclaimer for Best Limited Series. I did go with Kevin Kline over Jake Gyllenhaal, though. I was kind of speaking about the novelty of Billy Bob Thornton earlier, and I think Kevin Kline fits into that category, too, of it's, you know, cool seeing Kevin Kline doing TV and he's got a beard and what's going on with that character?

48:30There was a lot there, and it seems like an easy vote to check off. Jake Gyllenhaal is doing a whole lot in Presumed Innocent, but he didn't campaign at all just because he's been on Broadway. and I don't know if that is a performance that will necessarily make it through just on the strength of the performance alone but I'm not sure. Over in Best Actress, our nominees are Michelle Williams for Dying for Sex, Kristen Milioti for The Penguin, Cate Blanchett for Disclaimer, Renee Zellweger for Bridget Jones' Mad About the Boy, and Lola Pettigrew for Say Nothing. It's worth noting that Lola Pettigrew, like Bella Ramsey, is non-binary, uses they, them pronouns, but has chosen to run in Best Actress because they have to choose one or the other.

49:15This remains a great system that we're working with. This is a field of heavy hitters. You've got multiple Oscar winners predicted here, a multi-nominee in Michelle Williams. Who's winning this category?

49:30Savannah Walsh:This is a tough one. I think it might be Kristen in Milioti, though. I think that this is a great place to award the Penguin if they choose to do so. I think she's been beloved in the industry for a while and has played, you know, really iconic TV characters on 30 Rock, on Black Mirror. And I think it feels like her time. If I'm not mistaken, Michelle Williams won for Fosse Verdon. So she's got an Emmy. And it feels like this might be the place, you know, if maybe Jenny Slate is more of a front runner in the supporting arena for Dying for Sex, this would be a place to award the Penguin. So that's where my guess is going.

50:13Christina Milioti is so good in The Penguin. She has a spotlight episode where she gets to shine in all kinds of ways. I would love to see her win, but I also feel like Michelle Williams is so undeniably incredible in Dying for Sex and a reminder that she's one of our greats. And I wonder, especially if the show does well enough, if that just carries her through. I also wonder with Renee Zellweger, first of all, if this nomination happens, I can't imagine there is another example of an Emmy-nominated performance in a movie that made over$100 million at the global box office. But this movie, of course, Peacock puts it on streaming.

50:55So it is a TV movie in the United States in terms of how we're defining these things these days. I don't understand it. But Savannah, you got to talk to her a little bit. How does she feel about being an Emmy contender?

51:05Savannah Walsh:You know, I think she, you know, told me she's not really thinking about it in those terms of like Emmy versus Oscar. But it is worth noting that she received an Oscar nomination for the first Bridget Jones movie. And now she could potentially receive an Emmy nomination for this. It really is such an indication of how much the industry has changed that a film like this is debuting exclusively on Peacock in the States despite its global box office haul. And yeah, she said she's not getting too caught up in the TV Emmy delineation. But it's kind of hard not to ignore just how massive it would be potentially if she won an Emmy for such a cinematic romantic comedy heroine.

51:47Yeah. It's bizarre to see her in this category with some of these contenders, but she's really good in this movie and the movie's quite good. So I have no particular problem with it, I guess. It's surprisingly good. I really enjoyed it. It's currently on my best movies of the year so far list at VF.com. So it's really funny to be talking about it for Emmys. But I guess, yeah, it was a TV movie here. And I do think she'll get in. The competition is a little light. A lot of people are predicting Caitlin Deaver for Apple Cider Vinegar, which is a sort of scammer Netflix show that feels very three years ago.

52:25She is good in it, but I just don't know if that's going to materialize. Ari Grainer is submitted as a lead for the Menendez show. She is the other half of that spotlight great episode we were talking about, but she's otherwise definitely supporting in that show. And you have like a past winner in this category, Amanda Seyfried, who's quite good in Long Bright River, but that show did not make many waves on Peacock.

52:50Savannah Walsh:Well, what I think is so fascinating too is in seeing all of these streaming-only movies, be classified as TV movies when we're talking about Emmys. It's so wild to think about some of the people that could get in. Not that they're anywhere near the top five, but Anna Kendrick for another simple favor or Reese Witherspoon for your cordially invited. It's kind of wild to think about some of those performances being in contention here. And I think it's something we'll be talking about for the foreseeable future. Indeed. Well, you can read all of our predictions on VanityFair.com, which includes the reality competition categories, the variety categories, supporting acting categories.

53:29Savannah, thank you so much for joining us, and we will see you all on July 15th when the Emmy nominations are announced.

53:34Savannah Walsh:Thank you guys for having me. I really appreciate it.

53:41Thanks, as always, for tuning into Little Gold Men, and join us again next Thursday, July 10th, for our discussion of the history of sound, featuring a special conversation with the author and screenwriter Ben Shattuck. If you'd like to ask a question about the story, the film adaptation, or anything else, please send us an email to littlegoldmen at vf.com. Little Gold Men is produced by Hiba El-Urbani with mixing by Bumi Hidaka. Special thanks to Vince Fairchild. Jordan Bell is our executive producer. Kane Nass' head of Global Audio is Chris Bannon. And this week's award for the best endorsement of Rebecca's Vacation goes to Savannah Walsh.

54:17Savannah Walsh:It feels like her time.

54:22Thank you.

From the publisher

Richard and David are joined by Vanity Fair staff writer Savannah Walsh for a breakdown of who will be nominated for the top Emmys this year, ahead of the announcement later this month. The hosts also discuss a range of summer blockbusters, from F1 to the new Jurassic World, and assess the state of the box office.

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