Predicting The Most Unpredictable Races at This Year’s Emmys

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2:21Hello and welcome to Little Gold Men, Vanity Fair's podcast for film, TV, and awards lovers. I'm Rebecca Ford. And I'm John Ross. Well, the Emmys are fast approaching, which means it's time to put our reputations on the line and make some predictions about this year's winners. But before we do, we have some news items to discuss. By the time this airs, Rebecca and I will be on the mountains of Telluride gasping for air. Running from bears. It's fine. It's fine. Running from bears. Our colleague Chris Murphy will be in Venice and you can read about all of the things going on at both festivals on our live vlog, which will be on VanityFair.com.

3:07But we also next week will be talking about the festivals that we attended on the episode of Little Gold Men. So don't worry, you're going to get tons of festival content. But Rebecca, you also did a bunch of first looks of movies that are playing these festivals. Do you want to talk about it? Yeah, if you can't make it to the mountains or Venice, we have quite a few first looks up on VanityFair.com that came out last week. I have a first look at Inc., which is the Venice Film Festival opener, which is about Rupert Murdoch when he launched The Sun and stars Guy Pearce and Jack O 'Connell. So there's some great pictures available from that one.

3:49And then it's actually premiering at TIFF, but there's this movie called A Talent for Murder, which stars Helen Mirren as famous author Patricia Highsmith. And so really great performance by her. And so I got to talk to her a little bit about it. And we have some images of her in the movie and just how transformed she is. She actually told me she put on like shoulder pads to make her neck shorter because Patricia Highsmith had a very short neck. So I just like love hearing about those sorts of details of films. But as John said, we'll be live blogging from the ground. So please make sure you're checking in on the website for that.

4:27And lastly, if you've been paying attention to the drama of the animated film Coyote vs Acme, this was a movie that Warner Brothers shelved and decided not to release last year. Catch-Up Entertainment then bought it from Warner Brothers. It finally was released in theaters. It did okay. It had an opening of$15.4 million. But it is nice to see a movie that was going to basically be locked in a vault, see the light of day, and have fans be able to get to see the movie in theaters. I mean, it's so rare. There were so many sad stories about films being shelved around that time. So to see a movie come back is like a miracle, I feel like.

5:13Yeah. And I wasn't that aware of the release. You know, ketchup is a smaller distributor than Warner Brothers, but it feels like this is a success. This movie was made and is being seen. So a nice happy story from the past week.

5:29All right, let's make some Emmy predictions. Here to help us out is our very best friend, VF Features Editor, Hilary Bustis. Hi, Hilary. You're welcome. You're back. I am. I have to come up with something different to say every time. We'll just play that You're Welcome song from Moana every time you show up. Now, before we get started, I did want to bring something up, which is that I feel like I have been set up. You personally. Yes, me personally. Of course me personally, Hilary. Come on. So we posted our Emmy predictions. Who assigned me comedy series and drama actress? Because those two are the hardest races.

6:18And I feel like I'm not being graded on a curve. I had the hardest. And therefore, if I'm wrong, I just, you know. It's all over. If you're wrong, you're done. Yeah. You'll never eat lunch in this town again. Exactly. I think it's random, John. Well, actually, Rebecca, I think that you did that because those were the same categories that John did for our Emmy nominee predictions. And I believe Rebecca distributed those. So talk amongst yourselves. I want to be excluded from this narrative. I just trust John to be right. And so I thought. I don't trust myself. usually I do try to give myself hard categories but honestly with Emmys it's really hard it's just see I love doing variety series because the answer is always the same although this year there's weird stuff with it this year yeah yes but you're going to do great John I have complete faith in you I've sat next to you at many an award show where you turn to me and say I told you it is an art not a science caveats apply I don't go to Cal Shea after you read this just in case.

7:32We're not responsible for anything you do with this information. Well, before we get into the picks, there's a few things about the process that might surprise you. John, as our coveted Emmy voter here, maybe you can tell us how it works. Yes, can only people named Emmy cast a vote? So I'm going to tell you how it works as it relates to the Oscars because that's the most comparable. That's the bar we measure every year. Yeah, yeah. So in the nomination process, there are something like over 30 peer groups that are part of the Television Academy. And when you enter the Television Academy, you enter into one of those peer groups.

8:16And so some of them are pretty obvious, like performer or director, writer, producer, executive. And then everyone can vote on the main categories, which is comedy series, drama series, limited series, reality, structured, and there's a couple of others. And then you only vote within your peer group on the others. Meaning if you are in the executive branch, you don't get to vote for the actors in nominations. Once it goes into phase two, which is after the nominations are announced, what's different from the Oscars is you still are only voting in your peer group as opposed to getting to vote for everything.

9:06So you still get to vote for comedy series, drama series, the main program categories. But it's not like then you can vote in the actor categories unless your peer group is allowed to vote in the actor categories. Likewise for directing, likewise for writing. Which, if you're wondering how did Jeff Heller get, you know, 40 ,000 people to vote for him? Well, he didn't. he got the acting branch to vote for him in supporting actor and comedy. So that is something to keep in mind always when you're doing predictions or when you're thinking about who the winners will be. Like that if you win one branch, then that can sway the entire race?

9:52Well, that you only need to appeal to your branch. Okay. Yeah. I also learned from a nominee that but you don't get to vote in your own category if you're a nominee. I don't know if it's like that for Oscars, actually, but... Oh, that's interesting. It's like not available on your ballot if you're a nominee in a category. So you don't get to vote for yourself? Right. Which takes all the fun out of it. Yeah. Okay. Well, we'd be here all day if we shared our predictions for every single Emmy category. So we're going to just focus in on the most up-in-the-air races, starting with supporting actor in a comedy.

10:26This is a pretty crowded field. It has seven nominees. Hillary, do you want to remind us who's in the running? I would just love to do that, Rebecca. So we have Coleman Domingo for The Four Seasons, Paul W. Downs for Hacks, Harrison Ford for Shrinking, Michael Urie for Shrinking, Stephen Root for Widow's Bay, Nick Offerman for Margo's Got Money Troubles, Tyler James Williams for Abbott Elementary. And that is our field, these seven guys. Our official prediction as Vanity Fair was written by Joy Press, who is not here to defend herself. But she has this going to Steven Root based in part on the fact that Jeff Hiller won last year.

11:05And so, therefore, maybe this will also go to somebody from a smaller show. I think that the conventional wisdom is that this is Harrison Ford's to lose. Is that correct? Yes. I mean, I've been saying it's Harrison Ford's to lose because, yes, he hasn't won for shrinking before. And he hasn't won an Emmy, period. Right. And I do think the whole, like, this is a movie star, we're at the TV Academy, we love to give them prizes has faded quite a bit over the years. But this season was really about, like, a very emotional arc for his character. He did a lot more press than he usually does, I think, to support the show.

11:39He gave that amazing speech at the Actor Awards, not the SAG Awards. Yes, yeah. So if there was a time, it feels like this might be it. But I don't know. I feel like Joy might be right here because Steven Root is like the kind of actor that actors love. And, you know, that show has been so popular that I think she might be right. How are you guys feeling? I'm going with Paul W. Downs. Oh, twist. We're really split here. I hear the Steven Root thing. It's worth noting also that Steven Root only got nominated once for Barry, which is also kind of a surprise to me because that show was so beloved by the Emmys.

12:13But he only got one nomination for that show and has not won an Emmy before. He's not a series regular on Widow's Bay, though. So he has the one great scene that was a meme, you know, this place is the pit of hell, and it is great. But I think Jeff Hiller had a much more substantial role in Somebody Somewhere. And so I wonder if that will affect the voting. I am always concerned or cautious when they just don't give an Emmy to somebody, which is what happens every year with Harrison Ford. Paul W. Downs I don't know he's just been out and about everywhere in some ways this season of Hacks was really more focused on him than before the campaigning quote unquote that he's been doing with Meg Stalter is very out there and avant-garde but it is putting his name out there I don't know that's just my gut but the counterpoint is that he has won three Emmys, four hacks, just not for acting.

13:24Right. And do people want to give him this or like he will win if the show wins again? But this is what the actors get to vote on. They don't get to vote on the Emmys that he wins. But they do vote on Joe. And so they could reward him there as an executive producer of that show. Right. It's very hard to predict, you know, like. This is why it's an up in the air category. Yeah, yeah. Yeah, everyone has a argument to be made, even in some ways. Nick Offerman could be a sort of out there win because he is going so against type for this character and is a television staple. So really anyone who gets called on that night would be in some ways a surprise.

14:11I think that if Steven Root does win, then that is part of a bigger groundswell of love for Widow's Bay, which got so many nominations that I wouldn't be surprised. We have it sweeping in comedy. Maybe we don't have it winning every single category. But as a collective hive mind, we have predicted that Widow's Bay is going to have a very good Emmy night. And I guess, you know, it is up in the air how much it's going to actually win versus whether the nominations were kind of recognition enough. But it does seem like that is such a word of mouth hit and it's new and it's exciting and people love Hax and this is the last chance to award Hax.

14:50But also Hax has been doing the same thing for five seasons. Like, I think that if he wins and if it's an early in the night category, then that's a bellwether for the rest of the show kind of going Widow's Bay's way. I just think it is, we have to remind ourselves, it is Hacks last year. They will want to say goodbye to it, maybe with writing and directing too. That is true. Well, the next category also has some Hacks in it, so maybe we should move. Yes, let's move on to Supporting Actress in a Comedy. I'll read the nominees. We have Cato Flynn from Widow's Bay, Dale Dickey from Widow's Bay, Michelle Pfeiffer for Margot's Got Money Troubles, Janelle James for Abbott Elementary, Hannah Einbinder for Hacks, who won last year, Megan Stalter for Hacks, and Jessica Williams for Shrinking.

15:36So we predicted Cato Flynn winning for Widows Bay, and I agree and feel in some ways this is one of the more potentially locked up categories. Because she has a bigger part on the series than Steven Root, like she feels like the breakout from that show. Totally. Yes. She brings the comedy. she is a major character she's got the breakout thing i just i feel like they're gonna reward her for this i think every conversation i've had about this show someone has brought her up like even before matthew or anyone else like she is the one that people are really obsessed with so i agree i think she's the strongest contender from the show to win and i feel like her main competition is probably Hannah Einbinder, who won last year and is really good in this, really good in this last season of Hacks.

16:35And I think - I don't know. I kind of think that Hannah Einbinder could still win here. Like, for the reasons that we've said about Hacks, she won last year. And also, like, she's grown so much as an actor over the course of that show. Clearly, I mean, voters have been watching from the beginning. And so they've seen her develop and the character develop along with her. And she's, you know, she's kind of an outspoken voice in Hollywood. And I'm sure that there are voters who like that and voters who don't. But I think that there are people also who, you know, support that and support her and want to see her on a stage again.

17:10So I don't know. I could see her making it. Yeah, I always wonder how much voters think, well, they just won or they don't care about that. I mean, look at Kelsey Grammer's shelves. At least they don't care. Because it's like Jean Smart has won what? Four? She's won every single time she was eligible. So I guess I shouldn't even take that into consideration. Which is kind of amazing that it took Hannah Einbinder as long as it did to win, considering Jean Smart keeps winning. It's true. I mean, I think you're right. The last two seasons, she as an actor and her character have had a lot more development and like stronger arcs, you know, and weren't just like supporting Jean Smart's performance.

17:48Yeah, and the character kind of started out as a cliche to some degree that she's, you know, woke and young. And I think that there are more shades to her now. I think that she should have won more than one Emmy for this role. If you're going to give nine Emmys to Jean Smart when she was only actually eligible for five. All right, we're going to take a quick break. When we get back, our predictions for lead actress in a drama, outstanding comedy series, and more. Don't go away.

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20:34Welcome back to Little Gold Men. Another race we've been keeping a close eye on is lead actress in a drama. The nominees are Carrie Coon for The Gilded Age, Carrie Russell for The Diplomat, Chase Infinity for The Testaments, Ray Sehorne for Pluribus, and Zendaya for Euphoria. So John predicted this one and went with Ray Sehorne for Pluribus, which I very much agree with. Oh, I have my doubts. You have your self-doubt? I have so many doubts. All right, John, take us through the thought process. Yes, walk us through it. Get ready to get into the mind of John Ross because it's really nuts. I look at this category a little like Olympic figure skating.

21:16Hold on, bear with me. Your program can have a certain technicality score and then there's the artistic score, right? And if you have more in your technical score, your baseline score will always be higher because you're doing like more jumps, let's say. Ray Sehorne's role in Pluribus is extremely difficult. She is the sole person in the show that has the different point of view. She has to do so much. Her level of skill is incredibly high. for that I believe she will get the Emmy award however when I talk to people over and over and over again I hear the same thing which is I didn't finish Pluribus I only watched two episodes I it was a little this for me the Pluribus fans are huge fans and obviously they're gonna vote for her Keri Russell is in a show that you know it's easier to do it's a nighttime political well it feels like a network show even though network show exactly however everybody watches it everybody loves it and everybody loves her so it is really really neck and neck between these two and then there is a dark horse and you're gonna laugh at me but it is Zendaya for euphoria I thought you were going to make the case for Carrie Coonson.

22:53No, no, no. I'm not that crazy. There is a chance that the voters just vote sight unseen for her because they feel like she's a star. And she's won before. She's won every time she's been nominated. But nobody watched or liked this third season, though. She is very good. Absolutely. And so therefore, I do think that there's not a way that Zendaya wins this, unless she promised to, like, come to the Emmys with Tom Holland and, like, do another wedding ceremony on the stage. And change outfits three to four times. I totally hear you, but I'm just gaming all the options. Chase and Carrie are not really options.

23:39They're nominations. Also, Carrie won the Actor Award. She did. Which was not a good thing for Rhea Sehorne because that is the most crossover that we get ahead of the Emmys is seeing who the SAG branch votes for. So that's a good sign for her, even though I didn't vote for her in my predictions. Okay, but my counterpoint, which is a two-pronged point, one, aren't there people like me who loved Better Call Saul so much and thought it was the greatest and thought that it was criminal that it didn't get Emmys? and number two, I guess, or like 1A is, are there really just not that many of us? Because that show was so good and it was ignored by the Emmys after Breaking Bad, just like took home every single award that it could.

24:31And it's so criminal that Bob Odenkirk didn't win and that she didn't win. And like justice for her by giving her this Emmy for another show with Vince Gilligan seems like a way to kind of write that wrong. I just don't know if that narrative - Did you watch all of Pluribus? I loved Pluribus. Me too. I watched the whole thing. So here's the thing. Those people are already the Pluribus watchers, so they're already going for it. That's not, she's not getting new votes that way. But I do think there is a narrative of like, she should have won. Yes. For that. And that does help her. So, but I, yeah, I do wonder if it's just a smaller, the numbers aren't mighty for that group that you're in, Hillary.

25:11I'm not. And the it's her turn narrative actually works for Keri Russell too, because she didn't win for the Americans and she was so great on the Americans. And that show was also more overlooked than it should have been. So yes, both of them kind of could have that narrative going for them. I don't know. I wouldn't be unhappy with either of these, but I just thought that Pluribus was so cool and so unique and fresh. And it would be nice to see that kind of innovation be rewarded. Yeah, because I don't know where else we're going to see it win. I think we're predicting writing, which does seem like a pretty likely place for it.

25:44But I would like Pluribus to win an Emmy or two. Like it's definitely deserving of it. And I want us to support shows that do push the boundaries like that and succeed. So. I mean, if Pluribus and Widows Bay both somehow take it out, then Apple goes home with all the apples. How do you like them apples? Yeah. All right. Let's move on to program categories, starting with limited series, which has the potential to be a real showdown. Hilary, can you remind us who's in the running? I sure can. We have All Her Fault on Peacock, The Beast and Me on Netflix, Beef also on Netflix, DTF St. Louis on HBO, and Love Story, John F.

26:25Kennedy Jr. and Carolyn Bessette on FX on Hulu, which rolls off the tongue. So Joy Press predicted for us, and she picked Beef, which is also what I would have picked. In 2024, it like swept the Emmys. They won like every category they were nominated for. I think obviously some of that was this show just sort of like, you know, being new and having these incredible performances and sort of storming the scene here. But I feel like this season has been just as good and Netflix has really been supporting it. So I would have picked beef as well. Okay, but. Yeah. I don't think that people watch this season the way that they watch season one.

27:08Yeah. And I think that if you look at the Emmy nominations, weirdly, DTF St. Louis overperformed. I think that there are a lot of Emmy voters in unhappy marriages, which I guess they could vote for either B or DTF for that. No, you're right. But I just, I think that DTF feels like it had a swell of support at the right moment. And that therefore, I think I'm kind of leaning DTF. I think that Beef is going to get actors wins. I loved the second season of Beef as much as the first season. Maybe actually even more. Oh, really? Yes. But we are few and far between. I just felt like season one was just, yeah, it was just tighter and had more of a point of view.

27:54and, you know, how do you argue? Like, Ali Wong was so good. I don't know. I don't know. I love Carey Mulligan. I love Oscar. I just love the actors more and I don't know, for whatever. I just did. I can't, you know, the art wants what it wants, Hillary. But I have yet to meet people who feel very passionately about Beef Season 2, whereas people are passionate about DTF. Yeah, and I think passion goes a long way. If you have fewer but more fervent fans, that can go a long way toward getting you the win. And none for Love Story, goodbye. Yeah, Love Story, I think, just wasn't, you know, quote unquote, serious enough.

28:36It seems like a real possibility Love Story walks away empty-handed. Its best bet is in the supporting actress with Constance Zimmer. unless Sarah Pidgeon wins, but I can't see her winning over Carrie. I don't know. That's a tough one to predict. I think probably more people watched Love Story, though, than finished Beef Season 2. Really? I don't know. Is that crazy? You can never. Netflix's numbers are so much higher. That's true. There was so much buzz around Love Story, but then you get to the actual numbers, and it's very hard to compete against Netflix in terms of eyeballs. So we officially, Vanity Fair proper, is predicting beef.