The Make-It-Or-Break-It Races We're Watching at the Golden Globes

27:54It also, I think, ups the drama in a way because I remember when Michelle Yeoh won and Cate Blanchett won. Yeah. Their films were in separate categories and you were like, this is it. This is the head to head. These are the two, yeah. Yeah, and you got to see them both do an award speech and I love the drama of that. I think the best thing the Globes have ever done is have their categories divided in comedy and drama because it gives us those moments. You can understand people who say that we should have genderless acting categories because obviously, in terms of fairness, who cares? It doesn't matter if you're a male actor or a female actor.

28:28But the more actors get awards, the more speeches we get to see and the more we get to compare them. And so, yeah. The only sort of thing this year, I mean, the biggest race this year is the actor race. and I actually am beginning to think it's more wide open even than we thought. Like I think originally like it was like Leo versus Timmy, but I don't know. Like there's a lot of stuff moving around it feels these past couple of weeks. But Leo and Timmy are going against each other at the Globes this coming week. Because they're both in hilarious comedies. Yeah, because they're both in hilarious comedy.

29:05Oh, actually, I'll give that to them. No, they're both arguable comedies. I'll allow it. Yeah, I'll allow it, yeah. Better than the bear being categorized as a comedy, which we haven't even talked about. We haven't even talked about TV. Yeah. The Gold Medal. It's also a word, television. We should say. And so, but just back to that, I think it is going to give another actor who wins in the drama category, whether that's... Michael B. Jordan. Michael B. Jordan or Wagner Mora. That's going to give them a pop, too. So it's going to, I think, make that race even more competitive. I think that is maybe the most important outcome of the awards this year is that actor in a drama race because all of those guys need a boost.

29:55And so whoever gets it, I think it's going to be really important. Generally, the Globes, I will say I love that event. I love going. John and I will both be there on Sunday. and I look forward to it every year. It is the drunk uncle of award shows and like it's much more of a party and less stuffy than things and a little chaotic. Like last year, I remember they just didn't have a section for people that weren't famous. Like everyone just went on the same red carpet. So it didn't matter if you were a famous person or a guest. Like they had, it somehow wasn't organized enough. So I was just like wandering the carpet with everyone else and it was the best and the room is really warm and I think pretty happy, I would say.

30:37And it's a fun event. John, do you feel the same about it? Absolutely. And I also think Nikki Glaser is just a killer host. She's funny. She's not mean. But she's still having a laugh with the stars. Or she's mean in the right way. Like when Tina Fey and Amy Poehler were doing it, they had some very pointed jokes, but they were very funny. And it didn't feel like a Ricky Gervais where it's kind of like, I think all of you are stupid and I can't believe that I'm here doing this stupid thing, which is like you said yes, Ricky. They hire you, they're paying you. I think Nikki's actually a little bit nicer than Tina and Amy.

31:11I mean, I wonder if this year she'll go a little harder because she feels like she's more comfortable. But she just did a fantastic job of opening the night. And I think that the audience just was like, yeah, this is fun. We're back. Yeah, she talked about last year how she like did her homework. She watched all the movies. She learned the narratives. Like, not all hosts do that. And I think it really shows when she is delivering those very, like, specific jokes and really makes it work. I'm really excited to see her do it again. I hope she swings a little bigger now that, you know, she's solid in the gig.

31:48Hillary, you also brought up TV, which we haven't been talking a lot about in recent months. But I think these awards do matter, you know, when it comes to what they highlight in television as well. How do you feel? What's their place in the awards race? So I think the benefit of the Golden Globes for TV is that they get two award shows for the first time, like things that were out in the fall, but that have not been at the Emmys yet because the Emmys that they will be eligible for won't happen until the following season. And so that's always really exciting. Like sometimes a Globe goes to a show that was only released a month or two ago.

32:24And I think that when that does happen, it's a real like jolt of energy and kind of anointing something new. You know, I think that if somehow heated rivalry had like made the cutoff, I think that that would have been a really fun moment at the Globes. I think it was just a little too late. But yeah, I mean, TV awards especially can feel boring because the same shows and people tend to get recognized over and over. And that's the benefit of having something like the Globes where often they will kind of go in lockstep with the Emmys, but sometimes they won't. And there was like a long period, especially where the Globes were giving best actress in a TV drama or comedy to like a new young actress who had like kind of just, you know, started and launched like Quinta Brunson won it really early in the run of Abbott Elementary and Lena Dunham did right when Girls started.

33:18And like America Ferrera for Ugly Betty, like there was a whole run of like very new stars who had their first big moment on the Golden Globe stage. And that is, I think, the best thing that it does, especially for TV, because those are, when that happens, it's for shows that haven't been in the conversation for like months or even years. I really hope that happens because, you know, we just had Critics' Choice. We saw a lot of people we'd seen at the Emmy. So it'd be nice to have a few surprises. We love Owen Cooper, but how many times can you give that speech? He's very talented. Well, we're getting another Owen.

33:51I know. Yeah, the Globes actually used to sort of make a point, I think, more consciously of like not doing what the Emmys did. And sometimes it was like really wacky. Well, sometimes, remember when they left Mozart in the jungle? They loved Mozart in the jungle. Yeah, there's just been a bunch where like, you know, the people that would win the Globes might not even be nominated for an Emmy because it was like so off base. they've now sort of become slightly more serious and it's a little bit more in line with like what you'll see at the Emmys. But like we'll get to see, you know, Pluribus Love for the first time.

34:35Yeah. Well, I assume we'll see some sort of form of Pluribus Love for the first time. And that is the show that, you know, aired after the Emmys and is probably going to be a major Emmy contender later this season. But this will be its first stop. I think it's so funny that for years, everyone's like, the Globes voters need to be more serious. Let's bring in more people. And then for television, we're like, but could you be a little less serious and do something exciting? Exactly. Yeah.

35:05Well, we're going to take another break, but when we get back, we're going to talk a little bit about what we're watching out for on Sunday night. Stick with us.

35:23I'm Shilpa Oskakovich. And I'm Jazzy Sefcek. And we're the hosts of the Bon Appetit Bake Club podcast. Bake Club is Bon Appetit's community of confident, curious bakers. Jazzy and I love to bake. Some might even call us obsessive. And we love to talk about all the hows and whys and what didn't work that come with it. Every month, we publish a recipe on BonAppetit.com that introduces a baking concept we think you should know. Then you'll bake, send us any questions you have, and we'll get together here on the podcast to talk about the recipe. So consider this your official invitation. Come join the BA Bake Club.

35:57New episodes on the first Tuesday of every month, wherever you get your podcasts. Happy baking.

36:10Welcome back to Little Gold Men. So now that we've established why we care about the Globes or why you should also care, I wanted to talk a little bit about what we're looking out for this weekend. Well, first of all, all our predictions are up on the site. So go to vanityfair.com if you want to seem smart like us and know who's going to win. We're totally going to get everything right, of course. But I think we should start with, as we teased before, best actor, which is the most interesting, exciting race. John, I'm going to make you defend your pick for best actor in a drama. Go ahead. Time starts now.

36:45This type of interrogation is not what I signed up for. Okay, so I picked Vagnamora for The Secret Agent. And the reason why is because I think the Globes have such an international slant. And what happened with Fernando Torres last year, I think, can happen with him. He gives an incredible performance in the film. I believe he's getting nominated for an Oscar. The competition is Michael B. Jordan in Sinners. That's probably his biggest competition. And then Dwayne Johnson in Smashing Machine, Oscar Isaac in Frankenstein, Joel Edgerton in Train Dreams, and Jeremy Allen White in the Springsteen movie.

37:35I'm guessing, Rebecca, you think it'll be Michael B. Jordan? I do. Yeah. I mean, I'm not sure. I mean, you're right that the Globes nominations were so international in a way we've never seen before this year. And so you think they're not going to win? No. So I'm saying I can be convinced of your choice very easily. It is an incredible performance. Obviously, the comparisons to Fernando Torres run beyond just being Brazilian, but sort of the, I mean, that's a big part of it. because, God, the Brazilian fans love their movies. But how many Brazilian fans are actually in the Golden Globes voting body?

38:16I heard that there's a lot. This is actually true. I'm not even making this up. I heard that there is a big Brazilian contingency in the new voting body. Oh, well, okay. Objection withdrawn. Yeah. But it doesn't seem to matter because the fans are somehow present at all times. Yeah. But I think I hope it's Michael B. Jordan. I feel like Sinners will probably win for Best Drama, Motion Picture. And I think Michael B. Jordan has been picking up a lot of stuff, like a lot of sort of honors that are assigned ahead of time, but it would benefit him to have an acting win here on a stage like this as he continues, you know, to race for Best Actor at the Oscars.

39:01I mean, also, you know, this voting body, I don't know how much this is front of mind for them, But given that some of the Golden Globe scandal revolved around, you know, specifically like black creators not being honored in a way that, you know, white or like European descended creators were in the past, like may also be on people's minds. and like Because Sinners is, you know, it's a story that is kind of focused on that in an allegorical like horror movie sort of way. I don't know. So recognizing that could also feel like an important thing to do in order to not kind of make the same sorts of like errors that the Globes have made in the past.

39:43Totally. But that's how important this award is for these people's campaigns. It's like how we're talking about it. whoever wins, if it's Michael B or if it's Wagner Mora, that is going to probably propel them to an Oscar nomination. Yeah. And if they don't win, then the Oscar nomination is maybe more of a question mark. Yeah. I think so. You don't think both of them are going to get nominations anyway? I personally do, but I think whoever wins walks off stage and goes to their publicist and is like, I feel really good right now about my Oscar nomination. So, you know, like, yeah, I mean, there's a lot of ways that you can get a nomination.

40:28But what's really nice is to get on a televised award show that people really watch, which is the Golden Globes. Yeah, across the world. Yeah. Yeah. You know, that's the best thing you can do. I mean, do we think, we haven't talked about Best Actor in Musical or Comedy. do we think Chalamet is a lock? Is there, like, could DiCaprio surge? I have no idea. What do you guys think? I think it's so neck and neck. I mean, I have a little bit of a recency bias where, like, we just saw Timothy take the stage at Critics' Choice and Palm Springs and give speeches. And so I have a habit of being like, well, he's going to take this one too, but you can't do that with the Gloves.

41:13There's no reason to assume that. So what you're saying is that Ethan Hawke has a chance, and I should not. I don't know. I would be so happy if that happened. I think with the Globes, he does have a chance. He does have a chance. Because the Globes, really strange things can't happen. Surprising things, not strange as in weird, but like strange as in unpredictable things can't happen. Yeah. Right. And they're all deserving. So I don't think anyone's going to be like, oh my God, what a crazy choice. You know, any of those, almost any of these nominees make sense as a winner. So I think that reflects on the year we're having with all these strong, especially actor performances.

41:49But there's nothing strange about any of these options. Okay, I'm going to interrogate Hillary now after my intense, intense questioning from Rebecca. You predicted Rose Byrne for Best Actress in a musical or comedy for If I Had Legs, I'd Kick You, which is a musical or comedy. Oh, yeah, it's hilarious and tuneful. Yeah, yeah, I had no idea. Defend it. Well, okay, this is not at all meant as a knock against Rose Byrne. I would like to preface by saying that. I did, though, sort of come to this conclusion by process of elimination because I just kind of can't see any of these other nominees taking it all the way.

42:35Like, I don't know, one battle after another is going to win a lot of awards. It's probably going to win Best Musical or Comedy at the Globes. I'm sure it's going to win Best Direct for Paul Thomas Anderson. I don't know if I see Chase Infinity, though, taking an acting award. Yeah, that would be crazy. That would be a huge upset if that happened. And I mean, it's very possible that they love this movie enough to kind of, you know, a rising tide lifts all boats and she is great in the movie. And her performance is kind of globesy in that she's a young star. It's her first big lead. And she carries the movie.

43:07It's a long movie and she has a lot of screen time. and she's very green, but she does it with aplomb. But yeah, I don't know. I don't think anybody saw the Testament of Anne Lee. I think that Amanda Seyfried's great in it. I think that Wicked for Good was not as big of a critical hit, even if it made a ton of money, as, you know, Cynthia Erivo's campaign would probably hope that it had been. I think that Kate Hudson for Song Song Blue is, you know, great gowns, beautiful gowns. And... But that's an old school Globe win. Very. Is a Kate Hudson. If Kate Hudson wins, we've got a little bit of the old Globes.

43:42That's true. That's the Emily in Paris of this year. And, you know, I liked Begonia and Emma Stone is very good in it, but that movie's momentum just doesn't feel like it's moving. Like, if Begonia had been more of a zeitgeisty thing, I could totally see her riding that to a Globe win. And, you know, she's a past winner. She's A-list. She's got all of the, like, I don't know, she's in a position to win just as like, oh, it's an Emma Stone movie. like we should give her a golden globe. But yeah, so I don't know. I think that partially because it is hard to imagine anybody else taking it all the way, Rose Byrne is going to win.

44:17But also because I think that Rose Byrne is this movie and that it's a movie that if you have seen it, you walk away from it and the thing that you think is Rose Byrne was incredible in this very difficult movie. Yeah. It's a hard part and she really holds it together. Like anybody else doing this, you might just not even want to watch the movie because it's so unpleasant. But like you can't help watching her, even if the things that are happening, the things that her character is doing are like making you want to claw your eyes out of your face. And if whoever wins this category, so me personally, I think it's between Amanda and Rose.

44:54But if whoever wins Sunday, how much do you think that's going to propel them to be a lock for Oscar noms? Because Rose is so, I mean, she's on some people's ballots, but not others. It's a small movie. Yeah. I think if Rose wins or Chase Infinity wins, it locks them as an Oscar nominee. I do think there is a world where Chase Infinity wins this because she has been knocking this campaign out. She got Leo on Instagram. She deserves an award for that. She looks phenomenal. She's doing every event and interview she needs to do. and as you've pointed out, they love an ingenue in this category specifically.

45:43I mean, they gave it to Rachel Ziegler. They gave it to Awkwafina. Like they do some, they have in the past at least done some interesting young women as their picks. So I do see a world where that could happen. I think the safe bet is Rose when I look at this list. Well, now you've convinced me that it's either her or Chase. I think that neither of those outcomes would be super surprising. Yeah. Should we talk about best actress drama or is it just Jesse Buckley end of conversation, like the end? I think that's what you just said. It's Jesse Buckley end of conversation, the end. I mean, the Globes loved sentimental value.

46:18No, no, no, no. No? Never mind. Should we talk about supporting actor and actress? Yes. Let's start with best supporting actor. Okay, that was my pick. I picked Benicio Del Toro. Defend yourself. out. I mean, any time I go to talk about one battle after another lately, people bring up Benicio Del Toro. I think they love this performance. You know, the story is the movie essentially shut down and waited for him to be done with another movie to make sure he could do this part. And I think he really delivers. I mean, yes, there's the argument the vote could split between him and Sean Penn, who were both nominated.

46:57And Jacob Elordi is getting a lot of love for that that Frankenstein performance. Jacob Elordi just won Critics' Choice. He did. Jacob Elordi has done a spectacular awards campaign. He has been everywhere and he has been giving good quote. Yeah. We can say as a Little Gold Men guest. He just has done a great job. He's so tall to be so humble. You know? You know what I mean? Like, but he just seems... Head in the clouds, feet on the ground. Yeah. Jacob Elordi's story. He just seems really humble. He seems, I think he's such a heartthrob that people maybe didn't take him seriously. But then when he starts talking about his love of film and his love of auteurs and how serious he takes it.

47:45He's a huge cinephile, yeah. Yeah, it's just, he's done an incredible campaign. I actually think Stellan Skarsgård, though, does also have a shot here too. because of the international slant and, you know, the breadth of his career and he's phenomenal in this movie. Yeah, he would have, he seemed like the frontrunner kind of before all of the movies were out. Yeah. And I don't know if that has, yeah. I would say I still do think it's going to be Benicio because I think that One Battle has such momentum behind it, which it's kind of surprising that Sean Penn, none of us have mentioned him and he has a lot more screen time than Benicio Del Toro.

48:24Yeah, I don't know if it's just because he's the villain and that's a harder thing to love because it is, I think, one of his best performances at least in a long time and plenty of people are openly saying that but it seems like there is more excitement around sort of the, I don't know, the playful performance that Benicio gives. Yeah. So we think we're saying Benicio Del Toro or Elordi, feels like. Those are, yeah. No, I'm saying Stellan. Oh, okay. Inicio Stellan. Okay. Okay, we've got a three-way tie. It's exciting. Yeah. No, there's many possibilities. Supporting actress feels a little less open.

49:04Although, I don't know, actually. Looking at this list, we've got Emily Blunt for The Smashing Machine, Elle Fanning for Sentimental Value, Ariana Grande, Wicked for Good, Inga Ibdater-Lilius from Sentimental Value, Amy Madigan for Weapons, and Tiana Taylor from One Battle After Another. Tiana Taylor is who Vanity Fair has officially predicted as the winner for that category. Our colleague Chris Murphy wrote the case for her. Do we feel that she is still the best guess? She has a very strong showing in that movie, even if she's not really in it for all that long. But you really can't take your eyes off her when she is on the screen.

49:40But I don't know. I kind of feel like there's an Amy Madigan bubbling up surge happening. See, that's recency bias because she just won critics' choice. I know. Maybe that's why. It's hard. Weapons is my blind spot, I will admit. I still, I think it's going to be Tiana Taylor, even though, yes, she's not in all of that movie or as much of that movie as some other people. But it's true. Every moment of her on screen is the best moment. I mean, she's so incredible. And I feel like has been running a really great campaign as well and has been everywhere. She also has been everywhere. She was at the Macy's Thanksgiving Day Parade.

50:17Yes, she was. it's Tiana in my opinion that's like one where like you look at your ballot and you're like poof that's easy Tiana like I remember her in that movie she was good we know you know it's a breakout role and so I think it's Tiana all the way well we should talk about the big categories best motion picture drama and best motion picture musical or comedy we're predicting one ballot after another to win musical or comedy and sinners to win drama. How confident are we? I'm feeling quite confident in these. I don't know about you guys. I don't see it going another way, yeah. And I think that'll be nice because I want to hear, I mean, I know Thomas Anderson hasn't done a lot of talking lately and Ryan Coogler also won at Critics' Choice for screenplay, but I think hearing how they're going to maybe hopefully say something different in a new set of exception speeches would be nice because, you know, the challenge with those movies is they've had to talk about them for a long time now.

51:17And I think this is a moment to say something and we've seen that before at the Globe, so. Yeah, especially, you know, given current events, there's a way to tie them in for one battle, especially since that is such a politically charged movie. But he has not done that yet. Yeah, he won't do that. But this is the moment. This is the moment. He won't do it. There's a world, it's wacky, but there's a world in which it was just an accident when it's in drama. Wacky, John. whacking. Wait, you're right. We're not talking international film. We're talking drama. Yeah, I know. But there's a world. All right, John.

51:55I'll let you have that on record. The narrative about him shooting it in secret and, you know, being charged and all of that could appeal to a bunch of international reporters. And there is a world. I mean, I don't think so. So I think it's going to be Sinners 2. Okay. Should we move to TV? I just feel like the TV stuff this year, especially, it's going to be a lot of repeat winners. It's going to be The Pit, it's going to be Adolescence, and it's going to be the studio. And those are the same exact shows that won at the Emmys. I think that's probably what will happen, but it would be nice to have a little bit of a change up here.

52:39I just don't know where that could even happen at this point. Well, actually, the Best Actress Limited Series race is an interesting one to watch where we will get a winner that is different from the winner at the Emmys because Kristen Milioti won that award, but she's not nominated here at the Globes. So yes, as Joy Press, our colleague, points out in her write-up. So her predicted winner is Michelle Williams for Dying for Sex, which I would love because that show was great and not enough people saw it and it didn't get awards love and it should have. I would love that. I was so big on this show during Emmy season.

53:09It just didn't quite get there. Didn't have the reach, yeah. Yeah, so that would be really nice. See, I don't know who else I would sort of pick from that. Sarah Snook. Oh, interesting. She just won at Critics' Choice, right? Yeah. I think. I'll say to you, Sheld. I'm sorry, guys. I'm going to be a little. I think for a lot of people, Dying for Sex was too hard of a watch. And so I know that they have to watch it all, but they don't have to watch all of it all. So it's possible they watched like 15 minutes and they were like, this is not for me. But all her fault, you could watch in less than an hour.

53:43the entire series. I feel like that's not a mark in its favor because it's just like every single other Big Little Lies-esque. She's great in it. She's good in it. Yeah, she's got a good American accent. Yes, we agree. No, I actually thought she elevated the material. And when she won Critics' Choice, I think she could win here for the Golden Globes. But who knows? I mean, getting a globe right after she got a Tony six months after she got a Tony. Like, it's a good run for Sarah's Nook. Oh, we also didn't talk about the new best podcast category. Do we want to put in a prediction there? Well, no, because we weren't nominated.

54:24And so I don't... Never mind. Yeah, it's a complete... Illegitimate awards. Yeah. I think our prediction, VF's prediction was Amy Poehler, which I feel like is a very solid prediction if there's anyone beloved by this organization. Oh, yeah. Well, I just want... It's Hollywood. Yeah, I want to see her on that stage. I want to see her acceptance speech. I'm sure voters feel the same way. Yes. Well, Hillary, thank you so much for joining us today. This was so fun and we always love having you. And the sincerity in your voice. It's why I do what I do.

55:03Thanks for tuning in to Little Gold Men. This episode was produced by Michelle O 'Brien with Mixing by Bumi Hidaka. Our executive producer is Stephen Valentino. We'll be back on Monday with our reactions to the Golden Globes, and we'll see if some of our predictions today pan out. See you then.

55:25Do you know what went down at the Viper Room the night River Phoenix died? Or how about the mysterious death of Brittany Murphy? Or about Dwayne the Rock Johnson's snatch-and-grab gang and The Rock's nearly 10 arrests? The obsessive killing of Dorothy Stratton, the real-life murder that inspired David Lynch's Twin Peaks, the three conspiracies surrounding Marilyn Monroe's death. These stories and more are told in the new podcast, Hollywoodland, where true crime and Tinseltown collide. Hollywoodland is hosted by me, Jake Brennan, creator of the award-winning music and true crime podcast, Disgraceland.

56:01Follow and listen to Hollywoodland wherever you get your podcasts.

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