We Have A Race! How the PGA and Actor Awards Turned Everything Upside Down

18:18John Heilemann:I think it was so exciting from afar. I think, I mean, I feel like there's so much to go, us to go through because you listed like three surprise acting wins there. I mean, Sean Penn, I feel like has this locked up. You win BAFTA and SAG, you win the Oscar, in my opinion, because, like I said, those overlap. Delroy and Stellan were not nominated at the Actor Awards, so that is worth considering. But because Sean took both, I think we have our Oscar winner there pretty solidly. Michael B. Jordan needed this win, I really think. He hadn't won a big award yet, and this was a huge, huge moment for him.

19:01John Heilemann:I thought he gave a great speech. He had won, right before the PGA's, there were the NAACP Awards. That's not one of the shows we cover, but he won two awards there and gave really great speeches. So he's been, like, you can watch a lot of videos of him are popping up on social media right now and are out there. And so it's like a very key time for him to be so in the spotlight. and I feel there's been a real surge with him. You know, and with Timothy losing those two, it's just like that lead actor race is a total mess at this point. So it's been really wild. Like, I can't remember the last time Best Actor was this crazy.

19:40Rebecca Onion:Well, I think lead actor is between Timothy and Michael B. Jordan, right?

19:45John Heilemann:Is there a world where Wagner Mora wins? I wouldn't totally count him out. He's had a very charming season. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. I think that's the least likely of what we're talking about. I agree. It's really a race between Timothee Chalamet and Michael B. Jordan.

19:59Rebecca Onion:What about Ethan Hawke? And then what about, I mean, it's a real race, but winning SAG right before voting closes is the best thing that can happen for you. And I think people feel good voting for Michael B. Jordan. He's had, he's a real movie star. Mm-hmm.

20:49Rebecca Onion:Critics' Choice, which maybe is less important, but then SAG, you are kind of like, I personally, you know, I'm a fan of Weapons and her performance, and I put her performance as like one of the best performances of the year. You do look at that performance and you're like, how'd she do that? Like, how'd you look at what was written on the page and you get put in that tracksuit? how did you come up with the idea of, you know, both being campy and really, really scary all in a matter of minutes, basically? So it feels really wide open. Like, I think between Wunmi, Tiana, and Amy, any of those could win.

21:31John Heilemann:Yeah, I mean, Amy, it's like also a beautiful sort of like career award for her that I think could totally happen because actors were Spectre and admire her. So even beyond that performance, I think even though, you know, it's been quiet for Teyana Taylor in these last few shows, she's still that person that everyone's just like gravitating towards in the room and she looks incredible and she's always getting attention. And I probably would still pick her, but I agree. It could be either of them. I mean, wouldn't we want it BAFTA? Of course she's British, so I feel like that gives you a little bit of a leg up there.

22:07John Heilemann:It does, yeah. But she still has definitely surged recently. So, yeah, that one is really hard to pick. Who would you pick if you had to pick today?

22:18Rebecca Onion:Okay. We're going to reveal something to the listeners.

22:23John Heilemann:Okay.

22:24Rebecca Onion:After every movie, I have a notes app, which if it were ever to be released, I would never work in this town again, where I basically write my thoughts for every movie. and then I'm completely persuaded by everything else that goes around. And then I sometimes go back to what my original thought was. I thought Tiana Taylor was incredible in one battle after another, but she's in the first 25 minutes of the movie and then she disappears and she never comes back. Amy's the exact opposite of that. She ends the movie. And I think that that gives her a little bit of an edge. I think sometimes we like get so in our heads about like everything that's going on.

23:06Rebecca Onion:And Tiana's campaign has been incredible. And the cover that she did with us was incredible. And she looks incredible. And her story is incredible. But I think sometimes people really just look and they vote based on like the performance and what they felt after they saw the movie. And I think that being front-ended is a disadvantage in a very close race. Now, the person who's in the movie throughout the entire movie is Wunmi. And so that sort of negates what I'm saying altogether, which is why I think it's a wide open race. But I think that's why it's exciting this year, except for lead actress Jessie Buckley, you know, because there's a lot of unpredictability, which is fun.

23:57John Heilemann:Yeah, we're going to get more into our predictions specifically next week, but it's hard not to just think about it constantly. I feel like the SAG win for Sinners sort of locked Francine Maisler, who's the casting director of Sinners for me as the winner of the new category. So that was sort of a nice thing that we feel pretty confident about after seeing that win there. I guess we could talk a little bit about the show. I mean, this was on streaming on Netflix, so that's how I watched it. and I think a lot of the staff was sort of talking about it didn't, it wasn't great. I think there were some problems with the teleprompter.

24:41John Heilemann:I don't know, John, if you could see that in the room, but it felt like people were kind of struggling to read off of it at certain points. And I mean, I love that I'm an actor speeches, they'll get me every time, but I thought a lot of the rest, that always works, it always gets me. But I felt like some of the other parts of the show, I don't know, Does it make us at all worried for when the Academy does go to YouTube, you know, when these shows are going to really all be on streaming someday?

25:08Rebecca Onion:No.

25:09John Heilemann:You feel okay?

25:10Rebecca Onion:Because the Academy is a different beast and they have a longer runway to get there. And I think what the problem with this show is, is it has a hard time what its identity is. Because the Golden Globes has the Nikki Glaser opening and has always had a real true stand-up do the opening monologue. And it's a little bit of a roast, right? And it's a little bit drunk and it's a little bit, like, saucy. And the Oscars are the fanciest and has the highest production value. Kristen Bell did a lovely job, but she's not a traditional host. The song that she sang and she can really sing didn't work. So really, I think I chalk it up to like the writing, actually.

26:02Rebecca Onion:Like the bits just didn't work. The ping pong thing didn't work. Her opening just like wasn't quite strong enough. I kind of thought she should have just done a little bit more crowd work, but that's not her thing. Right. So I just think that they have to rethink a little bit the format of the show to make it different enough from the Oscars and the Globes. Plus, there were like technical difficulties. What the show had going for it was a lot of surprises.

26:33John Heilemann:Yes, yes.

26:34Rebecca Onion:So it ended with like surprise after surprise after surprise. So like people were pretty riveted, but the middle section dips a little. I was actually surprised, speaking of surprise, I was surprised Erin Durrity didn't win for Adolescence. That's like the only time somebody who was nominated for Adolescence hasn't won an award this entire year. Yeah.

26:57John Heilemann:Well, I don't think they've always done this right, but they presented all the TV awards first, and then the second half was all film, which was a kind of, most of the shows mix those together when they have television, but I think TV was very predictable. It was adolescence, the pit, the studio. So I think it was a smart way to get that all out of the way and then leave all the drama for the second half. But that was pretty unusual as a strategy. We haven't talked much about TV, but we will once the Oscars are over. So we'll get more into that later. But I thought that was actually a smart move, but surprising in the end.

27:34Rebecca Onion:Agreed. The only thing was they did Sean Astin, the president of SAG speech, right after Harrison Ford's. And that was too much blocking of non-awards. Like, you kind of have to mix it up so that, like, people are waiting to see who wins. You know, that's what really gets the audience like quiet is like, OK, who's going to win? So, yeah, I think there's, you know, there's room for improvement. But I thought overall the show moves pretty quickly and it is the last like big thing before the end of Oscar voting. And whereas in last year it was after Oscar voting, this being squarely right before the end of Oscar voting is more exciting.

28:23John Heilemann:They took a big swing with having Viola Davis present Best Actor because they set it up for that moment if Michael B. Jordan did win, and she gave it to us. Yeah, she did. They made some choices that were maybe a little risky and I think worked out. Unless they all secretly know the winners, I don't know. Let's not throw any more conspiracy theories out. But I thought that was a really beautiful moment. So they made a lot of good choices. We'll give them credit for it.

28:54John Heilemann:All right, we're going to take a break. And when we get back, Savannah Walsh joins us to talk about the shorts.

29:11Rebecca Onion:Hi, this is Mark Caducci from Vanity Fair. On Sunday, March 15th, join us as we take you inside the 98th Annual Academy Awards with live coverage from the red carpet, inside the auditorium and backstage. And right after the ceremony, you can tune into the live stream of the Vanity Fair Oscar Party, where Quenlyn Blackwell, Brittany Broski, and Jake Shane will be co-hosting live from the red carpet. This is my first year hosting the Vanity Fair Oscar Party, and I'd love you to join us to see what happens on Hollywood's biggest night. Tune in immediately after the Academy Awards on March 15th at 10.30 p.m.

29:42Rebecca Onion:Eastern, 7.30 p.m. Pacific on VanityFair.com.

29:55John Heilemann:Welcome back to Little Gold Men and a warm welcome to our colleague, Savannah Walsh. Hi, Savannah. Hello. Thank you both for having me. I'm excited to be here.

30:04Rebecca Onion:Now, Savannah, you watched all 15 of the nominated short films this year, and we're going to talk to you about your favorites and also how you went about watching them.

30:16John Heilemann:That's, I think, what is so challenging about the shorts. If you're an Academy member, these are accessible on the Academy site. But for any of the rest of us who want to watch all of them, you know, in the last couple of years, I've had to jump through hoops to find a way to them. So it's not the easiest thing to do. So I think you've had the hardest task of any of us this season, Savannah. So I'm really impressed.

30:38Savannah Walsh:I feel a little like that Kirsten Dunst. Like, I've seen everything because I'm a member of the Academy. Like that. It's like a flex, you know. And I think even though it is still really hard to find all the films and it does feel like a point of pride to have done it, I think the streaming era has made it easier to see a lot of these movies. I will say that.

30:58Rebecca Onion:How did you watch all of them?

31:00Savannah Walsh:Yeah. So I, since I live in New York, I live on one of the coasts where they play a lot of these short programs. I was able to go to Taika Waititi's. He's presenting the shorts through Roadside Attractions this year. So you can go to the movie theater, you can see all of the live action shorts back to back in sort of a randomized order that I'm assuming Taika may have come up with. And then the same thing for the animated shorts. So I was able to go and see all of the live action shorts in one day and then all of the animated shorts in one day. And it was like, you know, a feature length for both.

31:36Savannah Walsh:Was the theater full? Yes, both screenings were sold out, which was a lovely sight to see.

31:41Rebecca Onion:Is it people like you or who's in there?

31:44Savannah Walsh:Honestly, yes. I mean—

31:45Rebecca Onion:Is it a bunch of journalists? Or is it voters?

31:48Savannah Walsh:It feels like it's friends of people that may have made one of these movies because you see lots of people, in my screenings anyway, sort of walking in and out when a short starts and stops. Yeah, lots of young Brooklynites, I would say, that probably, you know, are on Letterboxd reviewing these films or, you know, doing an Oscar pool and want to make sure they get all the categories. So it is possible, people. It's possible.

32:12Rebecca Onion:But you volunteered as tribute. I did. Because we were all assigned our predictions. And it was like, Savannah's doing the shorts. And I was like, huh, like that's normally the one that everyone's like, don't assign me that, please. I don't know if I can do it. I will say. And you were like, I'm doing it. So what about it makes it fun for you?

32:34Savannah Walsh:I will say, by nature, I'm a completist. Like even when I was growing up in Kansas City, Missouri, I would go to the AMC Theater's like Best Picture Showcase. and I would see all the best picture movies. And, you know, I never had access to shorts like Olivia, Missouri. So I think that's like a part of a fun thing for me. It feels kind of culturally insidery to keep up with the shorts. But I think also I kind of fell into it because this year after the nominations came out, I was like, I'm going to keep track of all the movies I'm seeing. And I found this Oscars checklist app that someone has online.

33:05Savannah Walsh:And you can sort of catalog all of the nominated films as you're watching them. and I realized I'd seen a couple of the shorts already and then I just was like, why not try seeing all of them? And then I made the mistake potentially of mentioning that in the office and now I'm all shorts all the time, baby.

33:23John Heilemann:Now it's your full-time job. Yeah, exactly. I mean, the other tricky part about the shorts is predicting is really tough. Even if you've seen all the movies, I kind of joke that it makes it actually harder to predict correctly if you've seen them because it's rarely ever what you think it's going to be. It's just a real crapshoot when it comes to predicting. And I wonder if it'll change this year because they have this new quote-unquote rule that you have to have seen all the films to vote on a category. I mean, it's an honor system, so who knows? But I do wonder if fewer people will vote or how that might change things.

33:56John Heilemann:But I think I was zero for three last year with the shorts and I had seen them all. So we're not going to hold you to anything, but we are going to make you predict.

34:05Savannah Walsh:I appreciate that. It was definitely led by, you know, some precursors that are out there, but then also just the feeling of like what I like. So we'll see how it how it works out.

34:15John Heilemann:So I think we're going to go category by category here. We'll read the titles and then, Samantha, you can just kind of give us a lay of the land, the ones you thought really stood out. So I think we'll start with documentary shorts. So the nominees are All the Empty Rooms, Armed Only with a Camera, The Life and Death of Brent Renault, Children No More Were and Are Gone. The Devil is Busy and Perfectly a Strangeness. So what stood out to you here?

34:43Savannah Walsh:I will say all five of these films are really compelling. I think with the documentary shorts, that might be an easy place for a more lay person to start with because they're usually very compact. It feels like you're watching like a news special in some regards. And they're often about current events that we're all sort of living through. And so it's very accessible in that way. The Devil is Busy was made by Gita Ganbeer, a filmmaker who's also nominated in the feature-length documentary category for The Perfect Neighbor, which is the frontrunner there. She made The Devil is Busy, which kind of documents daily life in this Atlanta abortion clinic through the eyes of its security guard named Tracy.

35:23Savannah Walsh:And it's very immersive. You're basically just following her throughout her day as she's navigating protesters and protocol. That's the longest of the bunch. I think it's about 36 minutes. So all of these films tell their stories in under 40 minutes. That one, you know, as we're dealing with the evolving reproductive rights argument and conversation in this country, it really resonates. Children No More is about this weekly vigil in Tel Aviv in remembrance of children killed in Gaza and some of the backlash that they face in those efforts. I would say the odds-on favorite at this moment might be All the Empty Rooms.

36:04Savannah Walsh:It's a film that is made by a CBS News reporter named Steve Hartman and a photographer named Lou Bopp, and they capture untouched bedrooms of children who were killed in school shootings. And it's a film about this moment in history, but it's also—it's one of those films that I think lingers with you for a long time after you watch it. It's on Netflix, so it's one of the most accessible to watch, I would say, which will certainly help with people who maybe don't see all five nominees. And I've seen that one on the campaign trail quite a bit.

36:38Rebecca Onion:I've seen a little The Devil is Busy as well. Yes. So they've done some sort of social media campaign for that short doc.

36:47John Heilemann:Yeah. Yeah, all the empty rooms I've heard a lot about. And I met the filmmakers at the nominees' luncheon. And I feel like that one probably has the highest profile. I mean, in part, it's what you're saying. It's because it's on Netflix. But I feel like if I was predicting, that's probably what I would go with here, too, because I think it's a little bit more present than the rest of these.

37:06Savannah Walsh:Yeah, and I think the concept, too, it's such a—there's such an immediacy to the grief and to the advocacy in a way that it just—I think it lingers in a way that voters will remember.

37:17Rebecca Onion:Was that, you think, the strongest candidate, all the empty rooms, personally?

37:22Savannah Walsh:I think so. I think I really enjoyed Armed Only with a Camera, too. It tells the story of the first journalist on assignment from an American news organization to be killed while reporting on the war in Ukraine. And it's a really compelling mix of the reporting that he was capturing, even in the moments up to his death, along with his brother, who is the director of the film, transporting his body back to the U.S. And I feel like that's one I haven't seen getting talked about as much, but I thought was a really strong contender as well.

37:54Rebecca Onion:So should we move on to the animated shorts, which hopefully are a little lighter in tone? Although you never know.

38:02Savannah Walsh:I would say, yeah, only a little bit.

38:04Rebecca Onion:Okay, yeah, I was going to say I'm going to put my foot in my mouth. So we have Butterfly, Forever Green, The Girl Who Cried Pearls, Retirement Plan, and The Three Sisters. Savannah, what were some of the standouts of that grouping?

38:21Savannah Walsh:I will say this was maybe my favorite category of the bunch to watch because it is, you know, there is some lighter fare, even though it deals with some darker topics. And I would say my favorite of the bunch is the one that I'm predicting just because watching it in the theater, it felt like this was the one that people were connecting with most, and that would be Butterfly. and it's sort of this telling of the life of Alfred Nikesh. He's a French Algerian Olympic swimmer who was sent to Auschwitz where his wife and daughter died and then he went on to compete in two Olympics after that. And so it's a story of resilience.

39:01Savannah Walsh:It's sort of told via this man swimming in a pool and the story unfolds in a way where you're not exactly sure what you're watching And by the end, it hits in a very real way. It's sort of just a perfect blend of uplifting in a strange way, but also dramatically hefty. And yeah, that's the one that I went with, although I'm not 100 % confident in that.

39:24Rebecca Onion:Can you talk about the type of animation that they used for Butterfly? Because I find in the shorts they use different techniques than they do in the animated feature, which tends to be the sort of Pixar CGI style animation.

39:41Savannah Walsh:Yeah, I think that's what's really cool about this category are the different styles. Butterfly has this sort of like handcrafted artisanal like paint on glass technique that you see in like Miyazaki films. The Girl Who Cried Pearls, which is another film that I've seen talked about as a frontrunner. This is I'm going to be real here. I didn't understand this one. This one was a stop motion film. And it's this old man telling his granddaughter the story of how he obtained this prized pearl that he has from this mysterious woman. And it's the closest to like a Tim Burton sort of macabre animation style.

40:17Savannah Walsh:And then Retirement Plan, which is a short from The New Yorker voiced by Donald Gleeson, is sort of more of the hand-drawn sort of—it feels like a New Yorker cartoon style of animation. And then, you know, Forever Green feels like that more standard CGI Disney vibe. Okay, so your pick is Butterfly.

40:38Rebecca Onion:Yeah.

40:39Savannah Walsh:Butterfly is my pick. I think The Girl Who Cried Pearls I could see. And then I think Retirement Plan honestly could be a sleeper hit because it's, you know, nine minutes. It's on YouTube. It's got a famous actor voicing it. It's very uplifting and easy to understand. It's just kind of a man contemplating what life after retirement looks like. So those are the three that I would keep an eye on that feel in play. But Butterfly is my official pick.

41:05John Heilemann:You know, Savannah, one time I was complaining about how I can never pick the shorts, right? and someone told me just pick the first one in each group because that's what voters do if they don't know. And you're doing it so far. You know what? Subconsciously, that could be where I'm headed, yeah. All right, let's jump into live action shorts. The nominees are Butcher Stain, A Friend of Dorothy, Jane Austen's period drama, The Singers, and Two People Exchanging Saliva. That last one is my favorite title, obviously. So incredible titles on this one.

41:39Savannah Walsh:I mean, I will say Two People Exchanging Saliva was my favorite short of all three categories. I really loved this one. This one was distributed by The New Yorker as well. It sort of takes place in this futuristic dystopia where I almost don't even want to say the plot because I went in knowing nothing and I really enjoyed knowing nothing. But I will say it's about society and where kissing is outlawed and slapping is currency. So if you purchase something, it's like a number of slaps that you receive. So the very wealthy people have these huge wounds on their face. And it sort of takes this Carol-esque twist is how I'm saying it between this like wealthy woman in this loveless marriage and then this new shop girl.

42:25Savannah Walsh:They sort of tempt fate with each other. I'll say that. And it's in black and white. It's stunning to look at. Beautifully acted. And I think it also just sort of is, this is why I love shorts fundamentally, is like watching this, I was like, I want to see these filmmakers make a feature length thing. Like, I want to see this idea teased out. I think this is the one I'm most invested in. I'm like, if two people exchanging saliva doesn't win, I will be a little put out because there's some other great films here. But that's, to me, the one that gripped me the most.

42:55John Heilemann:It's interesting. I think The Singers is the one I've heard the most about, I think, because it's a Netflix release. Is that right?

43:01Savannah Walsh:It's a Netflix release. It's sort of about patrons in this blue-collar bar in middle America who kind of break out into this impromptu singing. It's definitely an upbeat sort of whimsical premise, and I could see people being into this one as well.

43:19Rebecca Onion:Yeah, it's hard because beyond the fact that if it's on Netflix, it means it's much easier to access. Although I do think if you're an Academy voter and you're going to vote in the shorts program, you will go onto the site and watch it that way. But, I mean, if you put, like,$100 behind a campaign for shorts, you're already so ahead of everyone else. And when Netflix acquires these shorts, they have the mechanism to put resources behind it that the other shorts just, like, don't have. Like in the regular campaigning, I think there's so many different ways to get people's attention and money doesn't always mean everything.

44:05But in shorts, it's like a little goes a long way.

44:09Rebecca Onion:And so if you've got a little, it feels overwhelming in some ways. Absolutely.

44:15John Heilemann:The other thing with live action shorts is kind of what you were talking about is that sometimes these were created as sort of a proof of concept so that these filmmakers can make features. And sometimes that's great. And sometimes that makes it feel like a proof of concept and not a real movie. Were there any of these that were sort of on the weaker end for you?

44:35Savannah Walsh:I will say I was not a big fan of A Friend of Dorothy, which I feel like is a big crowd pleaser that people are really enjoying. It's sort of led by this beloved British character actress who's on Graham Norton a lot, Miriam Margolis. And she plays this older woman who befriends this young teen who has an interest in theater. And it feels like a proof of concept thing, but it also feels very trite. It's very much like I see you and I feel seen by you. And they have a scene where they literally say that to each other and looking to each other's eyes and cry. And that's why I wouldn't be surprised if it won.

45:11Savannah Walsh:But it felt a little obvious to me. You know, I think some of these films, there's a little bit more left to the imagination. There's intrigue where you would want to see a whole feature, but it doesn't feel incomplete as is.

45:24Rebecca Onion:Well, so if you're predicting, you liked two people exchanging saliva the best. But if you're predicting, where are you putting your votes?

45:33Savannah Walsh:That's the one I'm currently predicting as well because that one's on YouTube. I also think it's very easily accessible, and I think people who see it will see it as more of an achievement than the singers potentially. But I also think A Friend of Dorothy feels like an Academy film. It feels like the type of subject that they're into, and, you know, they also like sort of a familiar face attached to a short. I will say Jane Austen's period drama has Emma Thompson as a producer and is sort of this funny, you know, spoof of Pride and Prejudice where a woman named Estrogenia educates a man about a woman's menstrual cycle.

46:15Savannah Walsh:I don't think it'll win, but another film that I think will be in the mix.

46:20John Heilemann:Well, Savannah, you've helped everyone out for their Oscar pools. Hopefully. I think they all owe you a little bit of the money they win. and you've helped us out too. So thank you so much for joining us. Thank you for having me. I hope I can help everyone out.

46:34Rebecca Onion:You did. Good.

46:41John Heilemann:Thanks for listening to Little Gold Men. This episode was produced by Michelle O 'Brien with engineering by Pran Bandy and mixing by Mike Kutchman. Our executive producer is Stephen Valentino. And make sure you join us next week. We'll be going down our ballots and talking about all our predictions for the Oscars. See you then.

47:11Rebecca Onion:Movies can make you feel, make you dream. Sometimes they even make you appreciate architecture. Is there anybody who's been hotter in a doorway

47:21John Heilemann:than Elizabeth Taylor?

47:24Rebecca Onion:That's the kind of analysis you'll find every week on Dear Movies I Love You, the new podcast from the Exactly Right Network.

47:30John Heilemann:Every Tuesday, we break down the films we're crushing on, from blockbusters to deep cuts.

47:35Rebecca Onion:Listen to Dear Movies I Love You on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

47:43Rebecca Onion:From PRX.