What Does Netflix Have to Do to Win Best Picture?

0:28Hi, listeners. It's Rebecca.

0:36Hello and welcome to Little Gold Men, Vanity Fair's podcast for film, TV, and awards lovers. I'm Rebecca Ford. I'm John Ross. Hi, John. Welcome back from London. How are you feeling? I'm feeling good. I'm feeling good. I got back on Friday. we did an event for Down Cemetery Road, which is a TV show that stars Emma Thompson. And may we all live our lives as fabulously as Emma Thompson is living her life. She just is a fabulous woman. There's no other way to describe it. She walked through the party with a martini. She said hello to everyone. And then she was like, where is home for you? And I said, LA.

1:26And she said, oh, I'm sorry. But she did talk about she's going to go be on Colbert. And she was like, you know, I've been on Colbert a hundred times. I can't believe it's going to be my last time being on the show. And she had some pointed remarks about what's going on in our country while also being just totally fabulous. and Ruth Wilson was there and also fabulous and wonderful. Sounds like it was a good time. Yeah, it was a good time. It was a good time. Nice. Well, there was a bunch of news while you were out. I know. I think the most exciting thing for me was The Testament of Anne Lee finally got picked up.

2:08I was getting pretty nervous for that film after we got to see it at TIFF. I just wasn't sure it was going to find its home, but Fox Searchlight picked it up. I think that's a great home for it. What do you think? Well, remember I said there was only one home possible for it. And it was Fox Searchlight, given the other studio slates. And, you know, this movie doesn't belong on Apple. This movie doesn't belong on Amazon. So they got the home that is right for them. And also the only one I think that really could have taken them on. And this is the movie that is the musical about Anne Lee, who founded the Shaker movement.

2:54It's very strange. It's definitely a big role for Amanda Seyfried, and she'll be in the conversation. But I think actually as a whole, the whole film will be in the conversation. Mona Fastfold was the co-writer of The Brutalist last year with Brady Corbett. Yeah, and she directs this one solo, and Brady is the co-writer of this one, so they kind of do a switcheroo, which is cool. It has similarities in ambition to The Brutalist. A lot of the rest of it is different, but it is a movie you want to see on the big screen, and I think Searchlight will be able to give us that. And Searchlight's slate is a little light because they have the rental family, but I'm not sure that's going to be a big hitter for them.

3:39And then they have Bradley Cooper's Is This Thing On?, which hasn't debuted yet. So they have room for this. They know how to run a Best Actress campaign. And I think they'll really give Amanda a strong push for that. And I think that makes that race much more exciting to me, at least. Absolutely. And they know how to market a weird movie. Yeah, they're one of the best at this. Yeah. So that's really exciting. And then I think the other big news was the box office this weekend. Unless you were under a rock, you heard about Taylor Swift's quote unquote movie that hit theaters this weekend. And that I think did really affect other films that were in theaters this weekend.

4:21Smashing Machine had a really, really soft opening. It only made around 6 million, which is quite a lot lower than the estimates had been at around, I think 20 originally. And they started to sort of drop down as we got closer. but, you know, Showgirl topped the box office and then One Battle After Another came in second. So Smashing Machine didn't have the greatest debut. It had a, I mean, it bombed. We can say it. Yeah, yeah, it bombed. I mean, I think that this is now gonna be a really difficult road for this film throughout the rest of this awards season. Not that the box office is like so important to everything that Academy voters care about.

5:09But I do think it is an indication of just how interested people were to see this film. And if the general population was this soft on the film, I have a feeling that's going to translate to the Academy unless The Rock really commits, or Dwayne Johnson really commits to doing an amount of Q &As that I don't think he was planning on doing prior. I do think it's a little unfair with the Smashing Machine that a lot of the headlines are like, Dwayne Johnson's lowest opening. And like, of course, it was going to be his lowest opening no matter what. So that narrative is a little unfair. This isn't a huge box office.

5:58I wonder why they didn't sort of do a more platform release like they did with The Whale. I think that's a pretty good comp for this movie and opening it in a major release with 3 ,000 theaters. It was over 3 ,000, I loved. Yeah, over 3 ,000 theaters. I'm not sure that was the right way to do it, even if you do have this giant box office star in it. I think maybe the slower way would have been better, but as you're saying, the box office isn't everything when it comes to awards, so we'll just have to wait and see what the campaign looks like from here. Okay, this week we're talking about the Roxy Hart of film studios.

6:37The name on everybody's lips, Netflix. It feels like this year Netflix has the biggest slate of films, I think, ever for a studio to have an awards contention. I can't remember. In my lifetime. my long life. I've never seen a studio go into a fall season with this many films. Yeah, it's definitely packed. And now we've seen all of them, or at least some of us have seen all of them. And I think that helps us understand a little bit better what the strategy might be here because they can't all be best picture contenders, but they do have several that should be or could be. So it's going to be a challenge.

7:26I mean, even for a studio as well-funded and as big as them, this is a lot to handle. And the fact is, it's extremely rare for a studio to get, I think they probably hope for three Best Picture nominations, but that's really, really rare for a studio to get three. So I think there are going to be some tough choices here. Yeah, so we're going to start by talking about the first of their releases to be released. Catherine Bigelow's A House of Dynamite and then we'll go from there into there's 600 other films yeah yeah House of Dynamite hits theaters October 10th tomorrow and then we'll be on Netflix October 24th so they're doing a short window in theaters and joining us today to talk a little bit about that film and all of this Netflix stuff is our friend and Vanity Fair senior Hollywood editor Hilary Buses hi Hilary hey guys what's up it was fun to just listen to all of that I've been here the whole time.

8:26All three of us have gotten to see House of Dynamite, so I think we should probably start there. Just to give a little summary of the plot, this is a political thriller set at the White House and following various government officials who are trying to control this active missile situation. It has an amazing ensemble cast, Idris Elba, Rebecca Ferguson, Anthony Ramos, and it's extremely tense and gripping in the experience of watching it is how I would describe it. I think I was like gripping my hands the entire run of the movie, but it really, really well done. And as you'd expect from Catherine Bigelow, like the details and the accuracy seems, from someone who has no idea how this would work, they seem so real and authentic.

9:15Yeah, it's not a scandal vision of the White House. It is, this is what might actually happen if somebody were to fire a nuke and then there were 20 minutes to try to figure out what to do. Yeah, it does a sort of Rashomon-style storytelling where it shows the story three different times from three different points of view. What Catherine Bigelow does so brilliantly is in the editing, she has certain points in the story that are like seminal moments that she then recreates in each different version of the story. So you're constantly knowing where you are in the timeline. Besides the fact that the timeline is actually on screen practically as well.

10:05And so that I think is an incredible device that she uses. She really uses all of her tricks. I mean, the editing, the sort of frenetic cinematography. I mean, it feels like you're really just there. And the hyper-realism. And I think this is definitely a contender for Best Picture. She will definitely be in the conversation for Best Director. But she's reclusive. She doesn't like to do a lot of press. She keeps it pretty close to the vest. What do you think, Rebecca and Hillary, about Catherine's chances in the director's race? Well, it's getting very crowded over there. But I do think she has a strong chance at a nomination.

10:59If she won, it would be historic. No woman has won this category twice. But yeah, I wonder how it goes from here because as you're saying, she won't do a ton of press. And, you know, someone like Guillermo del Toro will be out there doing those interviews and being pretty revealing in his interviews. So I don't know. I really don't know. I think there's a lot of question marks there. I mean, my other question is how cinematic is this movie? Because I watched it. I was very, I felt the tension. I felt as though, you know, I was watching something real unfold, at least for the first part. I think it lost me a little bit, honestly, as we saw the same story be told in part two and part three.

11:41I don't know if the device entirely worked. And I do also feel like kind of despite the scale of the ensemble cast and kind of the epic nature of telling this story, the movie itself felt like it was made for Netflix in a way that sounds kind of derogatory, but it also is not like this kind of big sweeping cinematic vision. and I don't know if that's going to mean, you know, not being kind of taken as seriously as an awards contender. Wait, do you mean like you feel like the movie was meant to be watched at home? I kind of do. Like it's written by Noah Oppenheim who wrote Zero Day, which is another Netflix political thriller.

12:23This is a better product than that. This is more interesting and it doesn't go on as long, which is good. But yeah, I don't know that I feel like you need to see this on a big screen. And I think that that is kind of the problem that Netflix so frequently runs into with the Oscars, which we're going to get into. That's funny that you say that, Hillary. I disagree. I think that this film and Frankenstein are the two films that are their most big screen forays into Best Picture. Maybe it's also just the procedural quality of it. Yes, yes. Yeah. I do hear what you're saying, the procedural quality, and also it's not too long.

13:08I mean, it's pretty short, actually. Well, it stretches the conceit to the very, very limits of, we can't see the story four times. Right. Yeah. I thought the first segment was definitely the strongest. That's Rebecca Ferguson's section, and I was very affected by it. I have an interview with her up on the site now, so once people see it, you should read it. But she, I think, is the strongest performance, and I'm curious if they do try to push her in supporting because I assume they're all going to be supporting since it's really an ensemble film. But yeah, I think by the time I got to the third one, which I still liked, but you kind of had lost a little bit of the like emotional.

13:47It loses momentum. Yes, it loses momentum. So I see what you're saying. I mean, I feel like there's below the line categories that would make sense. Editing for sure. Yeah, quite a few. I think production design probably, I assume it's like extremely accurate. Sound, I don't know. Yeah, the sound is really good. But yeah, so I think we'll be talking about this one quite a bit for the rest of the season once everyone gets to see it. But we wanted to expand and talk about the rest of Netflix's giant slate and will they possibly finally, maybe take home the big prize? They won't. It's a short segment.

14:20She's spoiled. She's spoiled already. After the break, we're taking a closer look at their stacked slate. Stay with us.

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16:10Welcome back to Little Gold Men from Annie Fair. So as we've mentioned, Netflix has a lot coming out this year, but the elephant in the room is that they have yet to win best picture and they have been trying and they've come really close and I personally think there was one year they should have won but I think we should probably try to figure out this mystery. Well, what was the year you're talking about? Roma. Roma. I think Roma should have won. Okay. Yeah, of course. Which was their first major really big best picture contender and they won director. They lost. I'm sorry. I just have to interrupt because I was like, wait, what did beat Roma?

16:45I forgot that it was Green Book. Yeah, you forgot because we all tried to forget. What an affront to humanity. Oh, my God. I think there's another elephant in the room, which is... Two elephants sitting in the room. It's a big room. There's two elephants. It's a big room. They're battling. Which is the whole Netflix theatrical policy, which is very nuanced, in my opinion, because they get the brunt of not releasing their films in full theatrical. They are very out and open about their belief that a Netflix movie is meant to be streamed. It's meant to be on their platform and they give them pretty limited theatrical runs.

17:37and their theatrical runs are either in their owned and operated theaters, which is the Egyptian in Los Angeles or the Paris Theater in New York, or like smaller theater chains like the Lambly. They don't get their movies in AMC or Regal. They don't even get into Alamo Drafthouse. I thought like, oh, you know, House of Dynamite will get into the Drafthouse, right? They don't because they refuse to commit to theatrical windows and they refuse to commit to a number of movies that they will put in theaters in any given year. How does this compare to other streamers? So Apple does something very different.

18:23They partner with major studios to release some of their films theatrically. And then Amazon, MGM, they have created their own distribution arm and they are releasing their movies theatrically on their own. That being said, they do play with like how much they're actually releasing their movies. Apple has The Lost Bus, which came out already in theaters. One wouldn't know it, but it did. And is now on the Apple platform. So that is pretty similar to what Netflix is doing. But because Apple commits to doing other theatrical releases, they don't get the ire of people being upset about Netflix's refusal to play in the theatrical model.

19:21And Ted Sarandos is incredibly passionate about this one issue. just in April of this year. He called the theatrical model an outmoded idea for most people. And he then later on was like, after COVID, we really learned like what people wanted and people wanted to go to concerts and people wanted to go back to other live events. But since COVID, the global box office has been down and he's like, that's because people want to watch movies at home. And that's what Netflix does. how important do we think this issue is when it comes to Netflix's relationship with the Academy? Well, I think it's been sort of the undercurrent and the hurdle for them that maybe isn't spoken out loud in those rooms unless it's Sean Baker up there on stage, every single stage he could get on last season talking about theatrical releases.

20:22And getting a big ovation every single time. The people in the room love hearing theaters, theaters, theaters. Yes, right. And those are the voters. So it's a huge struggle for them. And I kind of feel for them because, you know, the other side of this coin is they are making movies that nobody else will make, giving auteurs money that nobody else will give them to make. Like Guillermo's Frankenstein is his lifelong dream. And this is the studio that would give him money to make it. So, you know, it's a really tough position for them to be in because that narrative has been there since the beginning.

20:58Like, I remember when Roma was like, maybe going to win. It was like, that was the thing people would say, yeah, but theaters, you know? And so I think it still exists. And I mean, I'm sure that if you spoke to Alfonso Cuaron, he would have been like, yeah, I would love people to see this movie in a theater. But you can't say that once you sign on. I mean, also just from the Netflix perspective, like, think about how much money K-pop Demon Hunters would have made If they had just put it in theaters for a long run, they had a specialty, like, one weekend only thing, and it blew up. Like, I just, I think the idea that theaters are outmoded is maybe itself outmoded because some movies are events, and if you get those movies, then you should make them a live event and people will come.

21:37It's so interesting because it's exactly what you said, Rebecca. I mean, when Sean Baker started to win last year, So he started to win right when the Amelia Perez stuff was going down, which was a complicated thing because there was the Carla Sofia Gaston part of it and then there was also other controversies around that film. I think it was very clear that they had a narrative that they wanted to push about theatrical and this film. And that was in direct correlation to Amelia Perez because that film is on Netflix and didn't have theatrical. And it was successful. And I think like Netflix thinks, like as the Academy gets younger and younger and younger and they keep inviting more people, these new people will embrace the Netflix model.

22:34I'm not so sure that's true. I think that young filmmakers feel passionately about theatrical as much as older filmmakers. It just seems to be an issue that weighs heavily on them every awards season. Yeah, I think Amelia Perez is a... I mean, we'll never know what would have happened if all of that hadn't blown up. Because I remember in the beginning of the season, it did feel like that was a pretty strong front runner. Netflix has had 10 best picture nominations so far with zero wins as we have pointed out they've won best director twice with Koran and Jane Campion for Power of the Dog so they've won in plenty of other categories and a lot of the times I feel like in the beginning of the season I do believe they have a contender that could go all the way and I feel that way this season I did as well so you can find an explanation for every year why they didn't win whether it was the green book of it or Amelia Perez imploding.

23:36Like there are plenty of reasons outside of this theatrical debate why their films are not winning each year that are not at all because of it being Netflix. So it's a complicated sort of history to unravel, I think. But they would make their lives so much easier. Yeah. If they just committed to eight movies and they went to AMC and Regal and they were like, we'll do 45 days. Maybe it's because theaters can't really recreate the core part of the Netflix experience, which is sitting there for 20 to 45 minutes looking through all the available titles before you finally decide which one you're going to turn on.

24:18Are you listening, Ted? I'm here. I think we should jump into this massive slate because Beyond the House of Dynamite, which we've spoken about, to me, the sort of best picture, biggest contenders are Guillermo del Toro's Frankenstein and Noah Baumbach's Jay Kelly, to me, feel like the heavy hitters. And that's, I'm talking three big heavy hitters from very notable filmmakers. Do you guys feel like those are the leaders of this pack? Oh, yeah. Like wide in front. I would say. Yeah. I think, you know, Jay Kelly stars George Clooney. It's about movie stars and movie making and we know the Academy eats that up.

24:59I really enjoyed this film. I feel like it's more sentimental than maybe we're used to from Noah Baumbach, but I was all in for that. And I think George is giving one of the best performances I've seen him do in a long time. And it really captures sort of a love for movie making as well as making fun of the business. Which is sort of funny to see on Netflix for all the reasons. that he just played out. Like, he is a movie star reminiscing about his theatrical career. The grand finale takes place in a theater watching a movie on a big screen. I actually think Jay Kelly is their strongest best picture contender because I think it circumvents the theatrical thing because you can watch this movie at home.

25:43It's a movie that's pretty easy to watch at home. Subsequently, so is Anora. and I would love to know the data of how many people watched Onora on the Academy website or via other streaming websites versus in theaters. That's data we'll never know. And when you watch a movie at home, it also means like, you can probably pause this movie at least like once or twice to like go like do something in the kitchen and still be in it, understand it. And then the ending, I think, is very sweet. And we are living in what feels like maybe a living hell in America right now. And there's something kind of nice to seeing a movie that ends on a positive note that is sort of about, like, how important family is to people.

26:43And also George Clooney is just a movie star. He's movie starring, yeah. It's a trickier performance, I think, than people may give him credit for because he is not really playing himself. And I hope that people understand that when they see this performance. And he does an incredible job of being both, like, charming and then at times sort of, like, glib and uncaring towards the people that are working tirelessly for him at all times. He does that very, very well. Their second, I'd say, strongest film might be Frankenstein or House of Dynamite, depending on what you think. Taylor, you're fresh off it.

27:33What do you think? I am fresh. So speaking as a former 19th century English literature major. I was dying to hear your opinion about this. Yeah. I think that Frankenstein is tough material because you know this story. This is the perhaps most iterated upon story in culture, like Western culture, not even like English language, just kind of writ large. And knowing that, I think it's a pretty good adaptation. I mean, it adds a lot of things that are not in, you know, the original Mary Shelley novel. but I think that it does kind of get at the core of the novel pretty well in a way that makes it feel more faithful than a lot of Frankenstein adaptations.

28:19You know, it's not like a Universal Monster movie from the 30s. It's not glib. It's not self-referential. It's like a very straightforward movie, and it's sentimental, and it's kind of, it's got cheesy moments. It's got a moment where, you know, somebody looks at Victor Frankenstein, played by Oscar Isaac, and says, you're the monster, and it's like, okay. I feel like subtext does not exist. in this universe. But I don't know. I think visually, it does give you what you want from a Guillermo del Toro production. You know, there's lush costumes. There's all of these very lush, practical, seeming sets.

28:54I think the performances are good. I think Oscar Isaac's really good. I think Jacob Elordi's really good as the creature also. I like the relationship between the two of them. There's like a father-son thing happening. I don't know, Rebecca, if you also felt this way, but the scene where like the creature is recently born and he just keeps trying to hurt himself and Victor Francis is like, no, no, don't do that. That felt very true to life. Anyone with a toddler can relate. They're so eager to like impale themselves on something. And so, yeah, there's like a kind of a cool parenthood angle. Yeah, its greatest weaknesses are that it's too familiar, it's too long.

29:30It's too long. Which strikes many in auteur-like passion project on Netflix. Bardo, Bardo all the way. Yep. and The Irishman. Yeah. So, yeah, I think that it's not gonna be for everyone, but I think that it accomplishes what it tries to do, and whether you think that what it's trying to do is, like, a worthy subject is kind of, you know, your mileage may vary, but I don't know, Rebecca, how do you feel? I feel the same. I mean, it's incredible to look at. I really, I, like, remember my breath being taken away at this, like, ship scene with all these sailors because it's just, like, the way the snow falls on their costume.