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Market Maker

17 Sep 2026 · 37m · 13 chapters

Episode artwork

Why the Fed Is Raising Rates Again | What Happens Next?

In short

The Fed’s unanimous 25 bps rate hike (first in three years) and what it signals for inflation, Fed independence, and markets over the next 12 months.

Guest backgrounds

No external guests are named; the episode is hosted by Piers (and another host, Kevin Walsh is the Fed chair discussed, not a guest).

Key claims

Markets were reassured that Chair Kevin Walsh would act despite political pressure; the hike was framed as “removing a dose of accommodation” because inflation is “too high and has been for too long.” The Fed’s key inflation metric is PCE (about 3.7%), and inflation is being pushed by energy/supply shocks (US-Iran conflict) and tariffs. The dot plot implies further tightening: median policy rate 4.1% by end-2026, with 16/18 officials projecting at least one more hike.

Notable examples

30-year yields rising above 5% then easing; 2-year yields rising; yield curve flattening; US dollar strengthening above 100; S&P 500/Nasdaq futures recovering after an initial dip.

Written by AI. May contain mistakes.

Chapters

0:26

The Importance of the Fed's Decision

Discuss the significance of the recent Fed interest rate hike and its implications.

“or if you're a student preparing to walk into a global markets interview this week, this Fed decision we've just had is the single most important topic on your radar.”
1:39

Market Reactions and Fed Communications

Explore the market reactions to the Fed's decisions and communications strategy.

“Well, first hike for three years, which is the kind of, you know, just looking back on the chart, it was actually July, 2026.”
3:50

Inflation Concerns and Market Stability

Examine the worries about inflation and its impact on market stability.

“where Walsh, the chair steps up and delivers the statement and then gets grilled by the press.”
6:05

Interest Rates and Government Debt

Discuss the implications of high interest rates on government debt and borrowing costs.

“It was like inflation is going to get out of control.”
6:50

The Fed's Inflation Strategy

Analyze the Fed's strategy regarding inflation and its economic projections.

“Are the Fed going to do anything about it?”
10:34

Macroeconomic Drivers of Inflation

Delve into the macroeconomic factors driving inflation and supply-side challenges.

“I think with that, there's maybe room for then positive surprise, where maybe they get it back down there before 2029, and then they can self-grade with an A star.”
14:00

Understanding PCE vs CPI

Learn about the differences between PCE and CPI as measures of inflation.

“aside on the fed's key measure of inflation isn't cpi which is often like the headline inflation reading it's actually something called pce which is actually tracking at 3.7 percent right and going up.”
17:14

Fed's Independence and Rate Hikes

Explore the implications of the Fed's recent rate hikes and its independence from political pressures.

“The midterms are literally in like six weeks and he's hiked.”
22:36

Market Reaction to Fed Decisions

Analyze how the market responded to the Fed's decisions and the implications for future rates.

“Look, before we talk about what does this mean then looking forward, maybe just a quick word on how the market reacted to everything you've just described.”
25:05

Future Rate Expectations and Market Dynamics

Discuss future rate expectations and the factors influencing them, including geopolitical risks.

“Obviously, the government can refinance cheaper, but also it means the differential, right?”
Show all 13 chapters
28:01

Market Conditions and Live Decisions

Discussing the unpredictability of economic conditions and potential rate hikes.

“That's actually market terminology of which the central bank itself has used in the past.”
30:00

Historical Context of Fed Hiking Cycles

Analyzing the impact and historical significance of recent Fed rate hikes.

“And then if they do, then we will change and we won't hike.”
33:20

Current Fed Policy and Political Dynamics

Examining the implications of recent Fed actions and political pressures.

“To wrap up this then, your 60-second kind of cheat sheet of what we've discussed, which I thought might be helpful.”
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Transcript

Automatic transcript. May contain errors.

0:01This episode is brought to you by Google Chrome. You think you know a browser, but Gemini and Chrome? That's new. It can help you with practically anything on the web, like restoring a vintage motorcycle from a 50-page restoration block, or finally break down that long article you've had open for weeks. Gemini and Chrome is here for it. Ready to make anything online make sense? There's no place like Chrome. Check responses set up required, compatibility and availability varies 18+. If you want to understand where the global economy is heading over the next 12 months, or if you're a student preparing to walk into a global markets interview this week, this Fed decision we've just had is the single most important topic on your radar.

0:40Because last night from when we were recording this, Kevin Walsh delivered his first interest rate move as Fed chair. Despite relentless political pressure for lower rates, the FMC voted unanimously to hike by 25 basis points. That move reshapes a lot of things. Short-term treasury yields jumped in initial reaction, long-end inflation expectations have shifted, and the yield curve is telling a very specific story about monetary policy independence and supply-side inflation. So in this episode of the Market Maker podcast, we're skipping the noise and breaking down the actual mechanics of this. What drove that unanimous vote?

1:18How trading desks reacted across fixed income FX and the exact frameworks that you need to hopefully intelligently go about answering that inevitable question that you're going to get about what is happening in markets and what is that going to look like in future. So Piers, how are you doing? And let's get into this.

1:38Piers Curran: Hello. Yeah. Well, first hike for three years, which is the kind of, you know, just looking back on the chart, it was actually July, 2026. Oh, sorry. 26th of July, 2023 was the last hike. That got rates up to 5.5%, which was maybe I should say currently the high in this hiking cycle. But they were flat at 5.5 then for about a year. Then we had cuts, remember. So we had three cuts back end of 2024. Pause. Three cuts back end of 2025. pause. Now it's gone back up. And yeah, I think the big thing, I mean, obviously Walsh, Kevin Walsh, I don't think we should be saying new Fed chair anymore. He is the Fed chair and has been, I think this was his third meeting.

2:39Piers Curran: I think, yeah, it's just interesting as we've got to know him, you know, through these events, these meetings, these statements, these press conferences. I think actually this meeting, probably for the first time, markets are like, all right, okay, we get what's going on now. And so we'll talk about market reaction here. I think it's actually quite interesting. But yeah, I mean, the kind of big throwaway, like the big headline was, you know, from Walsh in the press conference. Remember, just for those who don't know, the sequence of events here is that, well, hang on, every six weeks, the FMC, Federal Open Market Committee, have a meeting.

3:28Piers Curran: and it's on a Wednesday, the culmination of that meeting and I'm talking London timings now at 7pm on that Wednesday, they release their statement and that's where the news breaks if they're changing policy or not. Obviously they did. They hiked rates by 25 basis points last night. Then there's a 30 minute gap. Then we have a press conference where Walsh, the chair steps up and delivers the statement and then gets grilled by the press. and this is where Walsh has been trying to wean us off, you know, information flow coming from that Fed chair seat that we've been used to for decades. Walsh is trying to have been saying, look, we're going to communicate less.

4:12Piers Curran: And so we've been trying to get used to that. But what he did say, the big line, inflation is too high and has been for too long, was the quote. So the idea here was that he spoke not that long ago at Jackson Hole and was remarkably hawkish at the time. So was this really a pretty clear market setup? You had that comment a few weeks back, you had some strong economic data, market pricing. I was looking at Polymarket going in, it was like 90 % that they were going to hike. Very much aligned then to market expectations in that regard. So was this really, is Kev going to come good here? Or have we got a major liability on our hands?

4:56And this is actually, sounds ridiculous, but this is almost like the absolute cornerstone of what markets needed for reassurance, which is that someone's credible. So was that really what was on the line here? And as you said, that comment, he's basically stuck to the script. But was there a tail risk here of a banana skin because of pressure from your man, Donald, and the rest.

5:21Piers Curran: I think the major concern out there in the marketplace has been inflation going back up. And we took, go and listen to our episode last week, I think it was, which was all about that, right? And obviously, partially, this is due to energy prices ramping off the back of the, you know, supply risk as a result of the US-Iran conflict, right? So inflation's going up, right? But what markets were worried about was that the Fed wasn't going to do anything about it. And they just weren't quite sure what are the Fed going to do here? And almost like, what happens if they don't act? And what happens if actually inflation does continue to creep higher?

6:09Piers Curran: And that was the concerned. It was like inflation is going to get out of control. And that's why I think things like the long end of the yield curve. So when you're looking at US yields on, let's say, the 30-year government bond, then you've seen it going out to levels that we haven't seen for decades. It's up well in excess of 5%, right? And so the cost of borrowing, therefore, I talked about it last week, the government are going to have to roll over$10 trillion worth of debt in the next 12 months and interest rates are incredibly high and it's going to be super expensive. And so the interest rates were high because of that worry.

6:50Piers Curran: The inflation's out of control. It's not out of control. Will inflation become out of control? Are the Fed going to do anything about it? No one's quite sure. So I think the uncertainty has been not removed, but certainly significantly reduced as a result of what happened last night. And I think ultimately for markets that will be interpreted positively. And the other terminology that central bankers like to use is, you mentioned that like tightening policy, but then the accommodation of policy. The other one was removing a dose of accommodation. so what's that kind of deconstructed what's he trying to say yeah well it's quite it's interesting because i mean look he's so obviously he said inflation is too high and has been for too long and i mean you that's undeniable you go and look at the inflation charts i mean if you just look at cpi inflation has been well in excess of their two percent target for well over five years now right um it almost got back to target two percent you know sort of end of last year but now it's just kicked back higher because of the well the straights for hall moves situation as i've already mentioned right um but the fed do look at other we'll talk about core pce in a minute but all inflation numbers are kind of moving back higher but when you look at the underlying economy whilst that all sounds alarming go and check out the stock market still on its high you go and check out economic data coming out of the u.s really strong did you see the retail sales figures yesterday you know beat expectations you know really really solid really strong retail sales numbers which is a great measure of the do we use the word resilience you know of of the consumer in America.

8:48Piers Curran: Obviously, we talked about US corporate earnings that have been just mega, right? So the economy is really strong. So what Walsh is saying here with that language, I'm removing a dose of accommodation. He's trying to say, look, I'm not tightening policy here to try and tip the economy into recession. He's saying, look, interest rates are too low. this is leading to really hot economic expansion which feeds into sustained inflation upside pressures and he's saying look if we stay where we are this is stimulus so i'm going to remove a little bit of that stimulus by just blipping up the interest rates on notch so in this meeting they put out their summary of economic projections their forecasts and how their researchers are looking at the future.

9:49And one of the things there was an extended inflation timeline. So somewhat then as an extension of what you're saying, the Fed pushing back its forecast for returning its 2 % inflation target from 2028 to 2029. Does that come as very little surprise then given what you've just described? It's just in keeping with the general phrasing.

10:10Piers Curran: Yeah, exactly. I don't think there's too much to read into that, given the language that's been used recently. Inflation's been above target for five years. And look, it's going back up. So they're basically saying, yeah, we're not going to be able to tackle and wrestle this beast back to target until maybe 2029. I think with that, there's maybe room for then positive surprise, where maybe they get it back down there before 2029, and then they can self-grade with an A star. But I don't think that's too influential. 28, 29, same thing. So maybe let's break down then some of the macro drivers. And there's kind of, I guess, three elements to this, if I could pick your brains on.

11:02One is this inflation. I mean, it feels like if you think of the balance of economic inputs as to what's influencing these decisions, it's wholeheartedly focused on a singular narrative of inflation. So supply side and energy shocks and how the market is looking at that, how the Fed look at it, and therefore our investors should be looking at it. Then this idea of Fed independence, because that had been somewhat questioned up till this point. And then also some of the political frictions are obviously ongoing with the political event happening with the midterms only a few weeks away.

11:46Piers Curran: yeah your man donald's not happy but um look supply supply side energy shocks like let's take that first one we've spoken about this quite a bit but you know if you want an argument as to why if you're in the camp that the fed should not hike you know why are they hiking you know there's a good there is an argument for that and that is that well why is inflation going up what's driving that and will a fed rate hike have any impact on that that factor so the fact of what you could say the big the big thing is the supply side you know energy supply risk as a result of the conflict in the straits of four moons right so we know the price of oil um actually it has come off a little bit you know last week let me just uh i've lost here's my chart on break crew because um last But obviously, the last few weeks, we've seen Brent Crew ramp back higher.

12:45Piers Curran: And we broke$100 back on the 10th of September. And actually, since then, so for the last seven days, it's just calmed down a bit. We are still above$100. We're trading just under$105, actually, which is the lowest we've been for a few days, having flirted with$110, right? So it's kind of settled down a little bit. But look, obviously, it's above$100, and this is feeding through to inflation. Obviously, energy prices directly. But the argument is, well, if the Fed hikes, that's not going to end the war. So why should they hike? Because the source of that that's driving prices up has got nothing to do with the Fed.

13:29Piers Curran: It's obviously more of a foreign policy situation. So you could say if it's just a supply shock, the Fed shouldn't make a move. But as we've been discussing, how long does oil stay high? I mean, we're talking like this conflict started back in February, right? So it then feeds into other stuff. and so you know that i think now we're definitely of the opinion and certainly after last night where they've hiked that it is feeding through into other stuff and actually just we'll do a quick aside on the fed's key measure of inflation isn't cpi which is often like the headline inflation reading it's actually something called pce which is actually tracking at 3.7 percent right and going up.

14:21Piers Curran: So 3.7, that's obviously nowhere near 2 % their target. PCE then, just quickly for people's awareness, that's the personal consumption expenditures measurement. This is still inflation with an inflation basket where you've got lots of items in the basket and you measure the cost of those items each month and you see, right, has that got up or down versus last month or versus the same month last year and you track essentially the cost of living. But this one focuses a bit more on everything households actually spend money on. So food, petrol, rent, healthcare, clothes, you know, all the usual stuff that CPI has as well.

15:01Piers Curran: But the key differences, the kind of two key differences. Firstly, the PCE reading, they update the basket as people change behavior. It's a bit more reactive. Simple example, if beef gets really expensive, well, shoppers then, well, all right, I'll buy chicken instead because it's cheaper. So the CPI basket doesn't account for that. It's just fixed. They hardly ever change it. PCE will go, okay, I see what's going on here. Let's kind of dampen down our beef element in the basket and we'll ramp up the chicken element. So it tries to be a bit more reactive to nearer trends, which so that sounds good, right?

15:38Piers Curran: That's why they're fed. Use it. It's a bit more sort of real on the ground, what's happening. The other one is on healthcare, which in the US is obviously a really big cost. So PCE counts spending made on your behalf. So healthcare is a really big part. So PCE includes what employers and Medicare pay for your treatment, because obviously it's all health insurance oriented in the US. So you're not paying directly, but what's your company paying or what's the insurer paying? And so actually that gets fed into PCE as well. They're the two key differences, right? So that PCE figure is what the Fed monitor and Walsh confirmed that last night by saying that, you know, that's our key measure.

16:21So there's that.

16:24Piers Curran: So we are of the opinion that pce look it's got too high and and add in the tariffs from you know trump's sort of uh camp tariffs seem so long ago now don't they but anyway it is still a thing and that's added to inflation right so look they're hiking because they feel like it's a bit more broad-based so i think the more important thing is this fed independence this episode is brought to you by Google Chrome. You think you know a browser, but Gemini and Chrome? That's new. It can help you with practically anything on the web, like restoring a vintage motorcycle from a 50-page restoration block, or finally break down that long article you've had open for weeks.

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17:09Piers Curran: Check responses set up required compatibility and availability varies 18 plus. fed independence re-established let's call it um and i think that one really interesting measure of that is is obviously wash has hiked here remember wash went through a rigorous interview process a few months back trump having spent the last two years you know like not being shy about criticizing powell for hiking and we should be cutting we should be cutting and then he did this interview process and the whole thing was, oh, he's going to put someone in a puppet chair who's going to cut rates for him. That was the kind of risk, right?

17:50Piers Curran: Walsh got the job, he's in the seat. The midterms are literally in like six weeks and he's hiked. I mean, there couldn't be a more powerful message to the market to say, hey, you lot, I don't give a shit about Trump. I don't care. He's got an election in six weeks. I think inflation is too high. I'm hiking. There could not be a more clear message to say I'm not politically influenced. So I think the timing of this is really powerful. Did you see the Trump truth social? Did you see the immediate tongue lashing that the president put out? I'll flash it on the screen if you can see it but if you can't i'll read it out he said interest rates in the united states should be one percent or less because we are the best credit in the world capitals by far yeah and what i'm most surprised about that is the lack of capital letters he only he only used by far at the end was his only capitals um interestingly though that uh trump later so that was his initial like emotive response i mean the crazy world we live in when the most powerful person on the planet has this emotive reaction response criticizing walsh and then comes off the boil and then later trump said he had confidence in walsh with whom he has a long-standing personal relationship and deflected blame then to the Fed board.

19:27Yeah. A little swipe there because, of course, that includes the former chair, Jay Powell, whom the president has previously obviously called a moron for not lowering rates. So, yeah, there's a really classic meme going around Twitter or X last night. Again, I'll show it on the screen for a moment if you can see it. But yeah, it's a beauty. But yeah, Trump definitely mourning for what was Powell. Now Walsh is, you know, stuck him the bird.

20:02Piers Curran: Because Powell's still on the voting committee, remember. He's there till 2028. So here's Trump basically, yeah, saying, look, I don't blame you. He went, I mean, talk about trying to undermine the whole thing. like i think look i think the market's better than this right and they understand that wash's actions have definitely reassured us and independence is there but he was talking about um i had a quote which i can't find now so i'm going to paraphrase it but he was basically saying yeah i had a word with kevin you know just before the meeting and i said look you might as well vote with the committee you might as well go with the committee look they're all going to vote for a hike you might as well vote for a hike as well there's no point you kind of standing out like a sore thumb you know you might as well vote with them um why would he say that it's just like ridiculous um but he's blaming powell still who's still on that committee and driving driving a hike but i i think like part that i think independence is definite we're definitely reassured one measure another measure of that is actually a guy called christopher waller so he's also on the committee um he was going for the fed job um but he was part of the interview process a few months back um the reason why i pick him out is because he's normally dovish and whether that was now that i think it through a bit more maybe that was just he was just trying to get the job So he was being dovish because that's what Trump likes.

21:41Piers Curran: And maybe therefore he'll put me in the seat. Anyway, he didn't get the job. But on the 3rd of September, so like less than two weeks ago, Waller did say that he's inclined to keep interest rates on hold, highlighting divisions, you know, among the US central bank rate setters. So he said, I'm inclined to keep rates on hold. And yet less than two weeks later, Walsh has persuaded him, you would imagine, right, to get on the bandwagon and let's be unanimous here together so that we can send a real clear signal to the market that we're not messing about. We're in control. We see inflation. We are acting as a unit.

22:20Piers Curran: You know, there's no arguments here and we're prepared to do it just before the midterms because we think it's the right policy change to make. And so I think independence, check. Like, we're now not uncertain about that. Look, before we talk about what does this mean then looking forward, maybe just a quick word on how the market reacted to everything you've just described. So I guess there's four kind of ways to look at this. You mentioned earlier about the yield curve. So in the two-year Treasury yields, they did rise. So repricing for a hawkish Fed, expecting higher rates for longer. that very much keeping with the language that the Fed described and with the movement in the dot plot.

23:05The 30-year Treasury yield actually fell a touch. So long-term inflation expectations easing, mainly, as you just said, credibility, bondholders trusting the Fed to curb inflation, or at least recapturing some of that faith. Dollar, capital inflows toward higher yields, credible central bank key. So the US dollar did strengthen. So you saw, you know, euro dollar cable decline on the back of initial move. US equities, they initially fell. I mean, the theory would be, I guess, that tighter financial conditions, higher borrowing costs, way on corporate valuations. Looking at the futures ahead of the market open just the next day.

23:49and at the time we're recording this the s &p 500 future is up almost a percent and the nasdaq up the same margin so all in all it feels like a pretty successful event for warship yeah i think

24:04Piers Curran: that's right and i think i mean you could say well stock markets only ever go up so why should you be surprised that's kind of what it feels like in 2026 but yeah the fact that yeah these futures indices are trading above you know we've got new highs for the week on on the nasdaq for example right so um having sold off last night initially um now we're new highs for the week so i think that kind of tells you the whole story that people have digested all of this in such a way that we're no longer uncertain about independent the independence of the fed and that's really really important. I think you might have stocks starting to think about, well, maybe we can see a turning of the corner here for long-end yields.

24:55Piers Curran: They've been elevated mainly because of the concern about inflation and the Fed's not going to do anything about it. That's now put to bed. So you could start to see long-term yields trend lower, which is ultimately good news for everything. Obviously, the government can refinance cheaper, but also it means the differential, right? You're getting less return on your long-end bonds now. So equities, relatively speaking, look more attractive. If that's your view, right? So are we going to get now a trend back to the downside for long-end yields? I think this initial reaction in markets this morning is saying, yeah, we may well do, or certainly the chances of that have gone up.

25:36Piers Curran: So I think really that's what's pushing things higher. But the two-year yield stays, you know, that's gone up, which makes sense. It's the shorter end of the curve that's more influenced by the interest rate level and where we think interest rates are going to be in the future. So this two-year yield stepped higher and has remained higher and actually is at its highest rate now since June 2024. four okay so that makes sense um so you've got a kind of flattening of the yield curve here um and then the dollar yeah it's interesting i mean that given what i've just said it makes sense that also the dollar strengthens um which it has and actually it's gone back above 100 on the dollar index um last night so it's the first time we've been above 100 since end of july um but like more broadly i I mean, the dollars, it's still kind of well within its range of the last 18 months.

26:37Piers Curran: So you haven't got any major breakouts there, but it has strengthened and gone back above 100. All right. Well, look, forward looking, one thing that does always come into focus is the dot plot. I mean, question marks on how relevant the dot plot is these days, as now we've gotten the third meeting for Walsh mirroring his inaugural rate decision back in June, the September dot plot once again reflected projections from just 18 of the FMC participants covering the remainder of 2026-27. Of that, the updated dot plot showed a median of 4.1 % by year end of 2026. 16 of 18 officials project at least one more rate increase this year.

27:22Would you say that's fair pricing for the information we have to hand at this present

27:27Piers Curran: point in time yeah so what so what do you hang on what do you say so one more hike is kind of where yeah because we went from well let's just say 3.75 to 4 and now the dot plots are saying that we'll get one more hike to 4.25 before year end two meetings left one is just before the midterms and then the next one is on the 9th of december or the last one only two more yeah i think it's fair to say pause in october uh end of october and then the december meeting maybe that's live and maybe we should expect one more at the current time obviously it depends what happens between now and then and where that pce inflation situation goes does does something does is there a de-escalation again in the middle east and you know obviously that this is a moving target right but right now Now I would say that is fair.

28:20Piers Curran: Maybe one more hype for you. You just used the word live. So that's not your wording, right? That's actually market terminology of which the central bank itself has used in the past. Live meaning that basically any decision could be made depending on incoming information between now and then. Yeah. So saying live, can you give me an example of like by saying live, But when has that been a recent thing? Because it wasn't that long ago, I remember, when they were saying this. I guess the example would be when there's a highly interchangeable conditions and largely outside of the Fed's control, like a supply shop, like the US-Iran conflict, you have to remain live, i .e.

29:09have agility to move in order to then compensate for, you have no bearing on the outcome of that Middle Eastern conflict. Yeah, and you've got to be reactive to, you know, the underlying data.

29:24Piers Curran: And the underlying data is influenced by situations that are live. You know, they are very much changing day by day, week by week. This just means it's impossible to predict, you know, three months ahead because there's so much going on, right? And so it's just saying whilst today, right now, it looks like a hike in December would be a sensible option. But it remains a live scenario. So conditions on the ground could change. And then if they do, then we will change and we won't hike. So, yeah. Is there anything to learn? If we look back, I saw a chart that was showing the history of Fed hiking cycles going back to the mid-90s.

30:18So that would include your Greenspan, the switch over to Bernanke. It would include Yellen as well as Powell. Obviously, different scenarios of which the hiking cycle was executed. but i think behaviorally is there anything there that you would look at and go okay what's happening now and can i use that as a reference point historically as to how the market might behave

30:45Piers Curran: going forward yeah well i mean one thing looking at the chart that really stands out is just how aggressive the jerome powell hiking cycle was 2022 through 2023 we talk about how steep the hiking cycle is. It's just the rate at which interest rates are going up. And actually, it was basically the steepest hiking cycle, you know, in modern times. And obviously, it's now flattened off, of course, because as we've said, last night's hike was the first one for three years. But hugely steep hiking cycle, what does that mean? Well, it means it should mean that it has a bigger impact on the underlying economic conditions.

31:33Piers Curran: If the rate of change is faster, you should expect the impact to be greater. But then you go and have a look at the impact and what's changed. Well, inflation is still above 2 % and stock markets are all-time highs. so actually that's the shocking thing it's the steepest hiking cycle ever and yet seemingly hasn't had an impact so you could i mean so how do you even begin to explain that well i think the one key difference about the hiking cycle compared to the others it started from a much lower base started from zero right you go and look at all that other all those other ones Greenspan in the 90s, Greenspan, Bernanke in the noughties, they weren't coming off zero.

32:23Piers Curran: They were starting, I'll have to go back and have a look, but the starting point might have been 2%, let's say. So I think that's probably the biggest point to make. But then, whilst yes, we've got a lot of volatility in this world, we're at the beginning of this massive secular long-term AI shift. and so that's it's definitely contributing to a resilient underlying economy in my opinion and so we're yeah you've got these kind of really it's an interesting crossroads and look at the moment that mega steep hiking cycle didn't do the job and that's what that's what Walsh said last night inflation's been above target for too long yep we hiked big time but it's still above target So whilst we've been on pause for three years, we're back.

33:19Piers Curran: We're back and we're moving rates higher because we need to get this thing under control. All right. Well, look, to wrap up one of the comments that we had from a recent episode we did, which was more banking focused, which was about getting people prepared with some good evidence to support questions or responses to questions about what's been happening in the M &A world. To wrap up this then, your 60-second kind of cheat sheet of what we've discussed, which I thought might be helpful. So the action being a unanimous 12-0 vote. The FMC delivered a 25 basis point hike. Again, the federal funds rate now, 3.75 % to 4%.

33:59It's the first increase since July of 2023. The macro drivers' supply-driven battle, PCE running hot, you said, 3.7 % amid the Middle East or shocks. There's some aggressive tariffs being rolled over. officials forced to extend their 2 % inflation target timeline out by a year, out to 2029. The key one, I think that's the main probably talking point, Fed independence. Chair Kevin Walsh asserted institutional credibility, pushing back against Trump administration's demands for 1 % borrowing costs. Again, 1%. We're currently near 4 % at the moment. So he framed that move, Walsh, as removing a dose of accommodation.

34:44And then impact-wise, we've discussed, so forward-looking, the dot plot looks at a median policy rate of 4.1 % by year end of this year, 16 policymakers seeing further tightening ahead, then one more, just two meetings left for this year, probably unlikely late October, because that's just before the midterms and it's a live event one thing we can probably anticipate those political friction is likely to intensify pressures coming down the pipe whether it's Powell or Walsh they better run for cover because the next few weeks are going to get pretty spicy for them yeah but here final

35:20Piers Curran: point on that you think about it Walsh isn't stupid Trump isn't going to be here in two years time, right? Walsh will be fed chair after Trump has gone away. So he doesn't need to appease Trump for the next two years. Why? Ultimately, his legacy, he's been incredibly successful in his career up until this point, like mega, mega, mega successful. But his legacy will be, how does he get on in this seat. And ultimately, you know, trying to appease Trump for two years and destroying your lifetime's legacy, you know, is not an equation that adds up. So, you know, he'll do his thing. Trump will disappear in a couple of years.

36:11Piers Curran: And so, yeah, independence is back. That's the big, big takeaway of last night. And I think there's a bit of a sigh of relief out there in markets. I feel like if I was Trump, hearing what you said, I'd say, how much does that legacy cost? Get the checkbook out. I'll get my nephew to do a little side deal here. We can sort you out, Kev. Come on. Walsh is like, I don't know how much he's worth, but I think it's in the hundreds of millions of dollars. Oh, come on. That's chump change. let's go legacy okay so his figure is a big figure it's a figure here we go alright thanks everyone for listening as usual hopefully that is a useful episode I know there's a lot of people thinking about A.

37:05the economic climate if you are a bit more proactive in self-investing and things like that but also for the student community of course that we serve this hopefully was a useful way to just be able to articulate market conditions and the main driving force of markets ultimately being the fed and the u.s economy so hopefully it was helpful don't forget to subscribe if you made it this far and you're not already following us on the channel more content always coming out thanks for listening and thanks for sharing your thoughts

37:33Piers Curran: when you spend enough time around great companies you notice that the best ones treat trust as a growth strategy, not a box to check. Vanta helps companies build and prove trust from day one. Its agentic trust platform connects compliance, risk, and trust at enterprise scale. Vanta delivers a 526 % return on investment over three years and pays for itself in just three months. Learn why over 16 ,000 of the fastest growing companies use Vanta at vanta.com. Thanks a lot.

From the publisher

The Federal Reserve has raised interest rates for the first time in three years, with Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivering a unanimous 25 basis point hike as inflation once again becomes the dominant concern for financial markets.


In this episode, Anthony Cheung and Piers Curran break down why the Fed decided to hike, what Warsh means by “removing accommodation”, and why the decision could be an important test of the Fed’s independence amid political pressure from Donald Trump.


We also explain the reaction across bonds, equities and the US dollar, why short and long-term Treasury yields are moving differently, and what the Fed’s latest projections could mean for interest rates over the rest of 2026.


Whether you’re following markets as an investor or preparing for a global markets interview, this episode gives you a practical framework for understanding one of the most important macro stories shaping the global economy.


(00:00) Why This Fed Decision Matters

(01:13) Why the Fed Hiked

(06:49) Policy Accomodation

(09:13) What’s Driving Inflation?

(16:18) Is the Fed Independent?

(21:44) How Markets Reacted

(25:51) What Happens Next?

(29:56) Lessons From Past Rate Hikes

(32:50) Interview Cheat Sheet

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