Music biz at a crossroads: from Taylor Swift to AI, with Sowmya Krishnamurthy

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1:17We're really at a crossroads because as it is right now, record labels are almost catalog companies. Like they're just amassing money from back catalog, actively signing new artists, developing them, investing in them. That doesn't seem to be the ethos. And what kind of industry, music business or otherwise, can rely on being a catalog industry that's essentially a nostalgia industry, something that's looking at the past versus looking at the future. And to me, the VMAs were kind of indicative of that.

1:56That's Somya Krishnamurthy, a music journalist whose work has been featured from Rolling Stone to Billboard to NPR. Just hours after the conclusion of MTV's 2025 Video Music Awards, I talked with Somya about the business and cultural lessons from the show and what it reveals about the state of the music industry. Somya also talks about Taylor Swift, AI and music, and the latest twists in the streaming war between Spotify and Apple. There's plenty of catchy stuff to hum along to, so let's get to it. I'm Bob Safian, and this is Rapid Response.

2:36So it is the morning after the VMAs, the MTV Video Music Awards, a key moment in the music industry calendar, broadcast on CBS for the first time, hosted by LL Cool J. And what did you think? Well, I'm going to be honest with you. I did not watch it. This shows you, I think, where we are in sort of the relevance of the MTV VMAs. I watched them on little clips on social media, which I think is very 2025. Don't you agree? Absolutely. You know, we got to go back, Bob. When I was growing up, I remember so clearly from about 6.30 to 8 o 'clock, I was glued to the television on the night of the VMAs.

3:21That was the red carpet, everyone walking down, what were people wearing, who was with who. 8 to 11 was the show. Somewhere in, you would have to get dinner because your mom would be yelling at you. And then 11 to 11.30 was the after show. But we watched it so voraciously because the next day at school or the water cooler, everybody was talking about it. The VMAs really were about these incredible music moments, pop culture moments. I mean, who can forget like the Britney Madonna kiss or Beyonce revealing she was pregnant. But fast forward to 2025, the MTV VMAs, first of all, being on CBS, I think tells you everything you need to know about this once.

4:03like edgy, rebellious, cool show, talking about music videos, which everyone kind of watches on their phone. And, you know, I just like so many people, I caught little clips. I read a lot of the recaps, but I was overwhelmed, I mean, underwhelmed because it really just felt like it was a very safe show, a very kind of, you know, family friendly, sanitized show. And there were so many opportunities to do something interesting or something that really would push through the noise or reflect just where we are as a society. And like LL Cool J, I mean, he's great, but it's not exactly on the cutting edge of pop culture.

4:42But I guess that's not what the VMAs are for anymore. You know, it's so interesting. I, you know, I was trying to think, OK, who is the demographic? And I would say probably about 17 to 25 is like that real sweet spot. But, you know, for people like myself in the industry, we should still be tuned in. And I can say, honestly, my timeline, no one was talking about it. And the only people I even saw in attendance is because they had clients there. You mentioned LL and the way he started the show. He essentially told people, the audience, the artists, like today is going to be about the music. Like he didn't say don't be political, but he said don't be political.

5:24And I thought that was so interesting, especially given the CBS lawsuit following the Donald Trump lawsuit and that settlement. I just thought to myself, we're in such an era now. There's so much going on that affects young people and they're passionate. They want to talk about it. And the fact that a show is saying from jump, yeah, we don't talk about that. Tonight, it's about being happy and having fun. And to me, that just set the tone. It was a very pop night. It was a lot of women and pop and you had Gaga and Ariana Grande and Sabrina Carpenter. All the big names came out. And like you said, this weird generational tension.

6:03You have LL Cool J, then like Busta Rhymes performing, Ricky Martin getting an award, Mariah, who are all icons. But I grew up with them. And I just wonder to a 17-year-old now. That's from 30 years ago. I know. Let's not date ourselves, Bob. And, you know, I do think that it's important to always, you know, respect the elders, respect the OGs. But is that also a reflection of the fact that the brand doesn't know who it's catering to? In my mind, it's always like a room full of people just like throwing ideas at a bulletin board and saying, yeah, this is what the kids are doing, right? And again, it's sort of like if you try to cater to everyone, you end up catering to nobody.

6:45So I'm not sure who this show was really for. They want to get that TikTok audience. Like they were very much trying to speak to a lot of the Stan armies and getting them to watch and vote and be a part of it. But also those kids don't watch television. I mean, you mentioned the sort of sanitized feel of it all. Is that like, does that reflect anything about the music industry and the music business right now? I mean, is that becoming more sanitized because of this environment we're in? Or is this just CBS? I think it's the music business. Anytime we talk about art versus commerce, it's always that very tenuous balance.

7:24And right now, commerce is winning. whether it be the fact that, you know, tech companies are really at the forefront of pushing music. Record labels admittedly are not really signing unheard of acts, wanting to develop them. It's all about follower numbers, engagement and clicks. So in that realm, I think it's really just about who advertisers like, who's being sponsored and who can make money. I feel the music biz is kind of in a slump. And I think one of the reasons is because artists just are afraid to take those risks. And not everyone, but I mean, by and large, we're just in this era where everyone wants to be a brand first and an artist second.

8:05The VMAs had a bunch of high profile sponsors, Bacardi, Burger King, Under Armour. But I noticed that the streaming platforms were like absent. Is there still a streaming war going on in music? or have we just settled into like Spotify, Apple duopoly and, you know, they're just let things ride. And I think there was such a missed opportunity with YouTube because that's where people are consuming music videos for a very long time, probably much to the chagrin of MTV and similar channels. That's the way that music videos are consumed and shared. I mean, some people, especially in other countries, they use YouTube as their DSP.

8:45They're not even going to a Spotify or Apple. Oh, I want to hear that song. Let me go to YouTube. And that's the way that they're consuming music. Now, you mentioned their DSP, their digital provider for music being YouTube versus Apple and Spotify. How does TikTok play into that? I mean, it's changed how new music breaks out. It's kind of a new distribution network. I know it's a puzzle. A lot of industries, not just the music industry, are trying to figure out how to play. I think TikTok is very interesting because initially, I think the industry really saw it as a place for music discovery.

9:22You would hear about artists going viral on TikTok and off not even one record, like a segment of a record, like 10 seconds, and they were getting record deals. But what has happened with TikTok, as well as so many other of these social media platforms, it's very quickly just become e-commerce. Like, I feel everything is about buy this, buy this, buy this. And with a TikTok store, that integration is right there. And to me, that has nothing to do with music. What I say about TikTok is I think the industry should just view it as a discovery platform. But by no means should that replace actually seeing an artist perform, them having an actual discography before getting a record deal, being able to see them live.

10:06Like, these things still matter. And I think those are aspects with a lot of new artists that are missing. One cool thing I will say is TikTok oftentimes introduces a new generation to classic records. So we all remember what happened with Fleetwood Mac and Dreams. I think that's great. So I think for a lot of artists, they're really getting second and third and fourth lives because of the music discovery aspect of TikTok. But I always tell the music business, like, we cannot outsource our ears to technology. Technology, algorithm, followers, that still doesn't tell you, is this artist good? Is the music good?

10:43Like, that should be a taste thing. And that, in my opinion, still comes from people. And the music business is so quick, whether it's through AI or algorithms or social followings, like, that equates quality. And it really doesn't. Now, one act that did not appear at the VMAs, the Velvet Sundown. Now, the Velvet Summedown is, of course, an AI-generated group or music. I don't quite know what to call it. This is a big question, but like, how is AI impacting the music industry? I mean, I know in Hollywood, AI is almost like a dirty secret. You know, directors are using it, but they're wary of talking about it.

11:24Is that the same in music? I think the problem with AI in the music business, it essentially enables people to just not work with human beings anymore. I can create this ideal group or band or rapper or singer. And they don't have all those pesky little feelings and thoughts that human beings have. They don't need to take breaks. They don't have any, you know, political inclination. So they're perfect for brands. Like, it's literally made to sell stuff. And at that time, when music seems so disposable and forgettable, I just don't feel as an industry, we should be running to replace human beings.

12:00and everything I've seen, whether it's the group you mentioned or recently they did, Rick Beato did a piece, I believe on CBS this morning, that they created like a female indie singer. And I just thought to myself, like no one thinks it's creepy a room full of men creating a young woman singer. Like this can't go wrong, right guys? Like you just know where this is going to be taken and it's not in a good place. And I just feel like as an industry, of course, be on top of the technology be cognizant of it, but we should be investing in human beings or using AI to help them versus replacing them.

12:40You know, I find it's hard for me to gauge like how healthy the music industry is as a business, you know, like which metrics to follow, like Billboard charts or Spotify downloads. Are there things that you pay attention to specifically? So I pay attention to a few metrics. I absolutely looking at the billboard charts and seeing which artists as well as which genres are represented. I also look at, you know, especially the companies that are public when they do their quarterly calls or their annual calls. But being in the music business, I can tell you behind the scenes, like right now is a very dire time.

13:19Probably 90 percent of the people I know are unemployed right now. There have been massive layoffs over and over again at record labels, at tech companies. And it's a very jarring juxtaposition because on one hand, you'll see the public announcement. This label had an amazing year, banner year. We're so happy with our artists. And by the way, we're cutting 10 % of our staff or we're cutting 30 % of our staff. And to me, that is not the sign of a healthy industry. It doesn't matter if the top 1 % are doing well, if 99 % are suffering and failing. And that's where I feel we're right now in the music business, whether it's an artist.

13:58The top 1 % are doing amazing. But talk to the other 99%, the pennies that they're getting every month from streaming. We're really at a crossroads. And it's very much the future of it is uncertain. Because as it is right now, record labels are almost catalog companies. Like they're just amassing money from back catalog, actively signing new artists, developing them, investing in them. That doesn't seem to be the ethos. And what kind of industry, music business or otherwise, can rely on being a catalog industry that's essentially a nostalgia industry, something that's looking at the past versus looking at the future.

14:36And to me, the VMAs were kind of indicative of that. And right now, to me, the industry seems to be at a bit of a sandstill. And I don't think AI or technology is going to solve this problem. You're talking about the 1%. I, of course, start thinking about Taylor Swift, the buzz over her engagement to Travis Kelsey, anticipation for her new album release coming up. Does the world of Taylor like dwarf everything else these days? I mean, I think she's somebody who is a pop superstar in an industry that doesn't really have a lot of them. Anytime there is this success story, like they like to prop it up.

15:15Like, look how great the industry is doing. I think she's a great case study of someone who's been very adept at starting in one genre, pivoting into another, and really being savvy about her business and how she's operating on her level when it comes to her masters, her music, her image. It's very curated. She's very much in charge, which I think is great. But she's also an anomaly. And for one Taylor Swift, very few other artists can do what she does. My always hope with people like her or those in similar positions is creating a new blueprint for other artists or opening doors for other creatives because she has that power.

15:58She has that leverage. I mean, I would love to maybe see her own label one day or publishing company signing unsigned artists or songwriters and helping develop them. Like, I think as she gets older, she could take on a very interesting role as an executive. And I think a lot of artists would really respect her for doing that. But I think right now it really is. She's in album mode. And we know one of her strategies is doing like various versions of the same album. I just heard the like Target version just get announced. Like she's guaranteeing herself like a number one album. Like that's not a secret.

16:33But to me, it's sort of as an industry, we can't just rely on that because it's not a business model that can be replicated by anybody. but maybe, you know, Taylor, Beyonce, maybe Kendra. There's only a handful of people who can emulate what she does. It's so specific to her. Taylor Swift is certainly the alpha in music right now. But as Somya points out, the music business is all about change and nothing is guaranteed in the future. So what are the trends we all should be keeping our eyes on? And what kind of impact is AI having on what we listen to? We'll talk about that more after the break.

17:13Stay with us.

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19:27so i wanted to ask you about hip-hop which i know is one of your passions it's come a long way from its renegade roots our listeners are primarily business leaders what do business leaders miss about hip-hop and and how it's shaped consumer culture and and i guess how it's maybe still shaping consumer culture in a way that's not being paid attention to Hip-hop really has shaped and influenced culture across the board, from music to fashion, lifestyle, sports, the music, the slang, how people dress, how they walk, how they think. This has permeated every facet of culture. Unfortunately, even though hip hop is over 50 years old, so technically it's a middle-aged man, even though it's in that life stage, it's still oftentimes treated as a niche art form.

20:20It's marginalized. And I think there's a lot of, you know, historic reasons for that, you know, racial reasons for that. Like it's just still sort of we want to extract the cool from it, but we don't want anything else that actually has to do with it in a meaningful way. And I think you look at, you know, you turn on the TV, how many commercials have like, you know, Biggie in the background or Tupac song. Brands want that cool factor, but sometimes they don't understand it in a meaningful way. And just throwing a Drake song on your brand's, you know, social media page or using hip hop slang in your social media content, that doesn't mean it's cool.

20:57Like, and in fact, people who are fans of the culture, they live this, they can sort of spot that out pretty quickly. So I feel like the commercialization of hip hop is probably at its apex right now. A lot of companies are throwing money at artists and sinking records and utilizing parts of the culture. But how many are actually reinvesting it or having a long-term investment in a meaningful way? That's up for debate. You wrote a book about hip-hop's impact on the fashion industry. New York Fashion Week is coming up. Is hip-hop still impacting the fashion industry? Is it taking it forward the way it once did?

21:37or, you know, are they sort of more, I don't know, the more intertwined in a certain way? Yeah, I think high fashion specifically is really leaning on hip hop because, you know, designers, even historically, whether it's like a Gianni Versace or Tommy Hilfiger, they want to know what the young, cool kids are doing. And especially in places like New York and LA, Miami, Tokyo, Atlanta, like that's where they want to see what are young people doing? How do they dress? How do they talk? and right now brands are still going to hip-hop. Again, I think they are more so going to what they think are like the safer bets.

22:15So they are going to people who are more established. You look at someone like Pharrell who has his position at Louis Vuitton. You look at something like Chanel who recently partnered with Kendrick Lamar. So they are going to these big superstars where I think they feel like they're going to get the guaranteed eyeballs and clicks and engagements. but absolutely compared to every other genre hip-hop artists are the ones sitting front row at fashion week you see them all over the Met Gala I mean as I mentioned in my book back in the day it was like Lil' Kim and Puffy were the first art rappers at the Met Gala and now they're everywhere because somebody like Anna Wintour knows that this is a demographic that may be vogue may not reach organically but you can get these artists to post something on Instagram or live stream it And it keeps these sort of heritage institutions young and relevant to the new generation.

23:10That relevance is so hard for these heritage businesses. And yet at the same time, it scares them, right? Like they want that relevance, but they're also worried, you know, that it's going to wash over them in some way that they can't control. I mean, again, it's all a business. So you always have to think about your corporate stakeholders, shareholders. Luxury itself, luxury fashion is very much always trying to figure out how to stay relevant. Maybe not culturally relevant, but commercially. And some of these biggest brands now, they're making more money selling, let's say, a nail polish or keychain or a lipstick at, let's say,$150 or$200 than, you know, selling an outfit at$10 ,000.

23:57because the luxury consumer is also very much evolving. And there is that schism between sort of quiet luxury and the, you know, we don't talk about what designers we wear, but houses, they want you to show off that logo. In the beginning, hip hop artists and those from the culture, they wanted to wear these high fashion brands, but they either couldn't afford it or if they did go into those stores, they weren't welcome. This was the rise of people like Dapper Dan who would basically create these DIY creations using a logo of, let's say, a Gucci or Louis Vuitton or Fendi to make something for the hip-hop generation.

24:35Then as time went on in the 90s and the aughts, hip-hop became the consumer. And now we're in an era where hip-hop is really the collaborator, where artists are working with these lines. They're the face of the line. They're the creative directors of these lines. But I think for luxury fashion, they're constantly trying to juggle all these balls of getting new fans, not alienating their old fans, not offending their political connections, not offending the stockholders. But I promise we're still cool, guys. Like we're still cool and we're expensive. So you should want us. And there's that aspirational element.

25:09But don't worry if you want that hundred dollar key chain, we'll sell that to you as well. Like there's a lot of things going on for these brands to stay relevant and also financially viable. From a business perspective, is there a next generation of artist entrepreneurs who should be on our radar, like heirs to Jay-Z and Rihanna and so on? You know, it's interesting. Had you asked me this question even like two years ago, I would have given you a laundry list because I think specifically Rihanna and then later Selena Gomez, they created a blueprint of artists becoming hyphenates in the fashion space and the beauty space.

25:49So specifically with Fenty Beauty and Rare Beauty, which are two of the most successful artists turned beauty lines. But so many artists try to release like sort of their version of that. And there were more flops than wins. So I think for artists right now, I'm sure they get so many deal offerings of, hey, you should sign on to be the face of this skincare line or beauty line or liquor line. Like they're constantly getting opportunities. but I would really say they need to vet these opportunities, do what makes sense for them in an organic way, and what they're ready to commit to. I think there's nothing worse than when you see an artist becoming the face of some brand and it's totally inorganic.