1. Podcasts
  2. Meet the Press
  3. Here’s the Scoop, Election Edition: Will Democrats (Finally) Turn Texas Blue?
Meet the Press

3 Oct 2026 · 35m · 15 chapters

Episode artwork

Here’s the Scoop, Election Edition: Will Democrats (Finally) Turn Texas Blue?

In short

NBC’s “Here’s the Scoop” Election Edition from Austin examines whether Democrats can win statewide offices in Texas in the 2026 midterms, focusing on the Senate race (James Tallarico vs. Ken Paxton) and the governor’s race (Gina Hinojosa vs. Greg Abbott), and how issues like data centers, affordability, and ICE enforcement could shift voter behavior.

Guests/backgrounds

Matthew Watkins, Texas Tribune editor-in-chief (since 2024), long-time Texas journalist; Gina Hinojosa, Texas state representative and Democratic gubernatorial candidate, former school board candidate and lawyer, from the Rio Grande Valley.

Key claims

Texas is changing demographically but remains hard for Democrats; this cycle’s unusual focus on affordability and data centers may help; Republicans’ culture-war messaging may be less effective; ICE raids and perceived racial profiling could create backlash.

Notable examples

Hinojosa cites Abbott’s 20-year data-center tax break and argues Abbott refuses a special session for protections; she highlights ICE raids disrupting communities and witness access in Harris County; Watkins points to recent suburban/Hispanic special-election shifts and compares Tallarico’s polling lead to Beto O’Rourke’s 2018 underdog position.

Written by AI. May contain mistakes.

Chapters

0:46

Texas: A Deep Red State with Blue Aspirations

Discussion of Texas's political landscape and the challenges for Democrats.

“Every Saturday from now until the midterms, I'm going to be talking with the smartest voices to discuss the top issues, the places, and the players that could ultimately decide control in Washington.”
1:40

Candidates and Their Challenges: The Race for Senate

Overview of the Senate race between Democrat James Tallarico and Republican Ken Paxton.

“Today we're asking, could this time be different?”
3:08

Gina Hinojosa: Challenging the Incumbent Governor

Introduction of Democrat Gina Hinojosa and her campaign against Greg Abbott.

“and about how Texas itself is changing demographically and politically, and if that's making races here more competitive.”
5:53

Gina Hinojosa: Her Vision and Challenges

Gina Hinojosa shares her motivations and the issues driving her campaign.

“Welcome back to Here's the Scoop, election edition.”
6:50

Data Centers and Campaign Strategies

Discussion about data centers and how they impact Hinojosa's campaign.

“So there wasn't exactly a stampede of Democrats getting into this race when you decided to challenge Governor Abbott.”
8:10

Cultural Wars vs. Economic Issues

Hinojosa discusses the focus on cultural issues versus economic struggles.

“My position and Greg Abbott's position is actually night and day.”
12:30

Democratic Strategy and Momentum in Texas

Hinojosa addresses the Democratic strategy and the potential for success in Texas midterms.

“Do you think you need to separate yourself from the Democratic brand to win statewide in Texas?”
14:00

Democratic Strategies in Texas Elections

Learn about the emerging strategies for Democrats in Texas and their attempts to mobilize voters.

“It is Democrats filed in every House seat, Senate seat, and congressional seat for the first time in 50 years.”
21:52

Texas Political Landscape with Matthew Watkins

Insights on the current Texas political landscape and upcoming elections from Matthew Watkins.

“And we're back with Here's the Scoop, election edition.”
28:00

Demographic Shifts in Texas Politics

Learn how demographic changes in Texas are impacting election outcomes.

“And the areas where Democrats do strong continue to gain population.”
Show all 15 chapters
29:00

Comparing O'Rourke and Tallarico's Campaigns

Explore the key similarities and differences between Beto O'Rourke and James Tallarico's campaigns.

“Yeah, I would say the similarities, of course, are it's a midterm election with Donald Trump in the White House.”
30:10

The Flaws of Ken Paxton and Their Impact

Understand the implications of Ken Paxton's candidacy for Texas Republicans.

“is what problems does having him on the ticket where he is present for Republicans who are not named Ken Paxton?”
31:30

Rural Voters and Party Dynamics in Texas

Examine the changing dynamics of rural voters and their impact on elections.

“I mean, I think— Ken Paxton sort of can't distance himself from Trump.”
33:00

Tallarico's Relationship with African-American Voters

Discover the challenges and opportunities James Tallarico faces with African-American voters.

“I mean, he's tried very hard to leave an open door to Cornyn voters to be welcome in his campaign.”
35:30

Influence of Joe Rogan on Tallarico's Campaign

Learn about Joe Rogan's potential impact on James Tallarico's campaign.

“So what will you be watching for in these last couple of weeks to try to see how this is all going to shake out?”
A man walking through an airport, asking his phone a question

Ask about this episode

Get the gist, explore an idea or ask about something said.

Claude

On Meet the Press, what are the key points of this episode?

Searching your listening

Transcript

Automatic transcript. May contain errors.

0:00Hi, Meet the Press listeners. Today in your podcast feed, we're sharing a special election edition of our NBC News podcast. Here's the scoop. In this episode, Chief White House Correspondent Garrett Haake sits down with experts to break down the key issues shaping the upcoming midterms. Take a listen. Everything's bigger in Texas, and this midterm year, that includes Democratic dreams of finally turning the Lone Star State blue. I am not running to be the governor for the Democrats. I'm running to be the governor for the people of Texas. We are going to keep Texas red.

0:45Welcome to Here's the Scoop Election Edition. I'm Garrett Haake. Every Saturday from now until the midterms, I'm going to be talking with the smartest voices to discuss the top issues, the places, and the players that could ultimately decide control in Washington. Last week, we had an in-depth conversation about the rapidly changing politics around Israel inside the Democratic Party. And this week, we're back to domestic politics, taking our show on the road to Austin, Texas.

1:16For decades now, this state has been the deep red heart of the Republican Party. It's the home of the Bushes and Ted Cruz, of multi-term governors Rick Perry and Greg Abbott. In the House, Texans routinely make up the largest GOP delegation by far. In fact, it's been more than 30 years since a Democrat has won a statewide race here. Well, Texas is the white whale of Democrats, at least for recent history. Today we're asking, could this time be different? Or are the polls showing Democrats within striking distance in the Senate and governor's races just another mirage that'll all melt away come November?

2:02Right now, most polls show Democrat James Tallarico, a state rep from the Austin area, beating Republican Ken Paxton, the attorney general, by a handful of points in the Senate race. Tallarico is a progressive, but he told me he's also trying to leave an open door for Trump voters or for supporters of John Cornyn, the incumbent Republican ousted by Paxton. How do you convince people who voted for President Trump or maybe never voted for a Democrat in their life to vote for you when you're opposing him on almost every issue? Not every issue. I actually look forward to working with President Trump after we win this seat to lower costs for Texans, whether it's on housing or prescription drugs.

2:43There are lots of areas where President Trump and I actually agree. And you think there's room for that in this political climate? That is my prayer. Tallarico has been a prolific fundraiser, and Democrats here and nationally are excited about him. But there is a history here of Democrats rallying around an exciting star in October, only to have their hopes dashed in November. Today, I'm going to talk to the Texas Tribune's editor-in-chief, Matthew Watkins, about how those candidates and races compare, and about how Texas itself is changing demographically and politically, and if that's making races here more competitive.

3:22But the Senate is not the only competitive statewide race here. Under a much less glaring spotlight, Democrat Gina Hinojosa has been running a tight race with Republican Governor Greg Abbott, who's seeking a fourth term. Hinojosa started this race as a virtual unknown outside of her home district near Austin, and she is definitely still the underdog. But despite getting outspent by Abbott 10 to 1, According to the Houston Chronicle, she remains inside the margin of error in most polls. Her message is progressive and it's populist. It focuses on helping the middle class get ahead and outlawing data centers, but also on asking voters to set aside culture war issues.

4:05Is that message working to win over more conservative Texans? It's all ahead on Here's the Scoop Election Edition. Stay with us.

4:19Who's ready for a bike ride? Peppa Pig is learning to ride her bike First, pop on her helmet, safety first Then attach the push stick and give her bike a push And watch Peppa paddle Her legs go round and round as the wheels turn With more than 75 sounds and phrases, every ride is a big adventure Peppa Pig Ready Paddle Go available at all major retailers now. If you like YouTube, you'll love YouTube Premium. It's destroying athlete, creator, and YouTube Maxer. YouTube Premium enhances how I use YouTube with awesome features like offline downloads so I can download my favorite training videos before I hit the gym.

5:02So no Wi-Fi doesn't turn leg day into loading day. Plus, I get ad-free videos, background play, and so much more. YouTube Premium is like YouTube got some extra gains. Try YouTube Premium for two months free at youtube.com slash premium. Trial eligibility varies. Terms apply. Cancel anytime. At Jared Jewelers, we know it's about more than fine jewelry. It's the moment they open the box. That smile they can't hide. Knowing you chose exactly right. Because the right gift can bring a lifetime of meaning. A promise. A milestone. A memory in the making. Make every moment unforgettable. Find great gifts starting at$250.

5:42Jared, make the holiday last forever. Shop Jared Jewelers.

5:53Welcome back to Here's the Scoop, election edition. I'm Garrett Haake, and this week we're in my home state of Texas, which hasn't had a Democratic governor since Ann Richards left office back in 1995. For perspective, that's the year the Macarena went viral. Sorry if that's now stuck in your head. This year, State Rep Gina Hinojosa hopes to change that. She's a mom and a lawyer, originally from the Rio Grande Valley, who started her career running for school board, then landed a statehouse seat. Hinojosa started this race as a virtual unknown outside of deep blue Travis County. And it's not just any race.

6:28She's going up against a perceived juggernaut in Governor Greg Abbott, who's seeking a fourth term and who's backed by an enormous war chest. Last year, a lot of political analysts were writing this race off. They saw it as an easy layup for the GOP. But as we approach this sprint to November, even some Republican operatives I talk to say this race is real. I'm grateful Gina Hinojosa could take some time out of her campaign schedule to join me today here in Austin. Gina, thank you for being here. It's great to be with you. So there wasn't exactly a stampede of Democrats getting into this race when you decided to challenge Governor Abbott.

7:04Why did you want to get into this race? Why did you think this was a winnable race? because I know how much harm Greg Abbott has done to Texas public schools. Texas public schools are part of our identity as Texans. They're enshrined in our Texas constitution as being essential to our liberties. And over the years, I have worked very closely with even Republicans. Rural Republicans are some of my best allies to defend our public schools. And Greg Abbott has done more damage than anyone. And so I knew there was a lot of anger. I knew there was a lot of coming together over issues that were impacting our everyday lives.

7:39And I knew we had to try. And that is why I decided to reach for that brass ring, which is the governor's mansion, to win. If education was the issue that got you in, I feel like the issue that put you on the map nationally was data centers. You talked about a moratorium on data centers. Now Greg Abbott has taken what was essentially your position. How has that issue shaped this race? And does him changing his stance take the wind out of your sails on it? Does it show that you were onto something before other people? How do you consider that issue? My position and Greg Abbott's position is actually night and day.

8:17I have called on him to call a special session of the legislature, which he's done many times before for all sorts of other reasons, right, to pass laws to protect Texans against data centers. He refuses to do it. And that is the difference. I think we need to pass laws. We need to have moratorium until we pass laws to protect Texans. That's the way we do things, right? We pass laws. That's the only way there's real protection. And his moratorium is until this audit is done? It's mere words. It's his commitment, and nobody trusts him. Do you think it's just a campaign tactic? Yes. It is an effort to protect his re-election chances, not the people of Texas.

8:57How do you walk the line on the tech industry? It's been a huge part of Texas's economy. It's like 20 % of Texas economy. You talk about Abbott having given the keys to the state to Elon Musk. But Tesla is a big business here. SpaceX is a big business here. How do you find a middle ground of supporting those industries while also protecting against the kind of abuses that you've talked about? We can have economic development and protections for Texans. We used to have that. It's the way this country, this state used to work, right? We support business so long as they are good for Texans, not in spite of the harm they do to Texans.

9:37That's not the way that government should work. So what's meaningfully the difference in how you would approach regulating those industries than what we're seeing right now? Well, let's talk about data centers. You brought up data centers. There are no protections. So Greg Abbott invited them into Texas with the most generous tax break in the country. They're owned by the richest men in the world. First of all, I would say they should pay for themselves. He signed that 20-year tax break into law. I would have never. You and James Tallarico are both from basically the bluest part of Texas, representing areas around Travis County.

10:16You've called for a truce on culture war issues. How much do you think culture war issues, as you describe them, have limited Democrats' success in this state before. How do you convince people from the other 253 counties in Texas that you're not out of step with what I think people traditionally think of as kind of Texas values? I had been hearing out there, all Democrats do is want to focus on the culture wars. And I didn't understand that because I knew that was not our agenda until I realized that what is happening is that we are being baited into culture wars to distract from the economic struggles people are experiencing in Texas, which are stark.

11:02I'm from the Rio Grande Valley originally. And when I am there, what I am hearing from people is not a concern about culture wars. I hear from people a concern about the fact that the cost of gas is too high, the cost of groceries are too high, that they can't build anymore because these ICE raids that are terrorizing the community where there is racial profiling happening, where even two young men on their way to enlist in the Marines, Americans, were taken from their car and beaten by ICE just a couple of weeks ago. People aren't showing up for work. People are scared, right? So it is these kitchen table issues that I'm hearing about.

11:39It used to be that Texas was a place where if you worked hard, you could have a good life and you could be prosperous. And people don't feel that anymore. People don't feel the American dream is within reach. Too many working Texans, especially young Texans. And that is what this agenda is about. It is delivering for Texans because there is anger at both parties in 2026. People are angry at the Republican Party and the Democratic Party. It creates a space for people to look at the candidate to see, is this candidate going to deliver for me? Is this candidate going to work for me? And that is a space, I think, that is almost a post-partisan space that we are entering into, that I am really hearing about in Texas, where people just want a leader, a governor who will work for them.

12:30Do you think you need to separate yourself from the Democratic brand to win statewide in Texas? I can't tell you what the Democratic brand is right now. Is that a problem? Well, not for me, because I have my brand. It is my record being in the Texas House. It is the credibility and the trust I have built on public schools. It is the credibility and trust I have built by not going along to get along in the Texas House. I'm one of the few Democrat or Republican who voted against the Speaker, the budget, and the corporate welfare bill that was before the Texas House, right? That's what sets me apart is that I am not going along with this kind of corporatist agenda that has been the work of Greg Abbott and our current leadership in Texas.

13:15Why do you think Democrats have been shut out in statewide races in Texas for so long? Well, I don't know. I will tell you that this election cycle, because it is Trump in the White House and the midterm election, is very similar to 2018. Last time we had Trump in the White House in a midterm election and Democrats swept in 2018. But they still couldn't win the Senate seat. And Beto came so close, as you know. Listen, we didn't have a ticket then. Beto will say he believes had he had a strong candidate running for governor that he would have won. And we had a great candidate. She did not get the momentum that she needed, right?

13:58We have a ticket this time. It's me. It is James Tallarico. It is Democrats filed in every House seat, Senate seat, and congressional seat for the first time in 50 years. Is that right? Yeah, it is. And so, like, the result is that we're already seeing more Democrats turned out in the primary than Republicans. That never happens in Texas. I got twice as many votes in my primary as Beto got in 2018. And I had seven opponents, right? And even still, because Democrats are working in every corner of this state to turn out the vote. And I will tell you, we are bringing Republicans along right now because they're just kind of disgusted with politics as usual.

14:38Tactical question. And most of the polling that we see has you close but trailing. The Houston Chronicle reported recently that Greg Abbott is outspending you like 10 to 1 and that that number could still go up. How do you get that message out when all of a sudden you're getting carpet bombed and so is James Tallarico on the airwaves here? Well, to date, Greg Abbott has spent at least$39 million in paid communications to my$3 million. And the more money he spends, the better I do. There are now 11 polls within the last six weeks that show me at least within the margin of error, right? So this is not a one-off, two-off poll that has me leading.

15:17This is a trend that shows we are gaining ground. And as people get to know who I am, they are with me. You spoke earlier about growing up in the Rio Grande Valley. Your launch video plays that up on Beto's campaign. The idea of trying to turn out the valley and the Latino voters who live there who have not been politically active was a huge part of the strategy. How important is it for you? And how do you activate all those people who are non-voters who are sort of waiting there for some message to get them off the couch? I don't know if you've been to the valley on this trip, but you go to the valley and you will keep meeting my cousins.

15:56We are a tight-knit community. That's an interesting strategy to turn out family. You know, it's true. Every time I go, we've been there so many times since I've launched. Somebody will come up to me and say, Gina, I'm your cousin. You just don't know me. But in that sense, there is a real recognition of people know who I am, and they know what I'm about, and they know that I am from their community. They know I am from them, right? And so in that sense, there is a different level of motivation to turn out, a different level of motivation to vote for the first governor from the Rio Grande Valley.

16:31There's been gallons of ink spilled about the Latino vote in the last couple of cycles. Donald Trump did better than any Republican in recent memory with Latino voters. The polling seems to indicate there's been some reversal in that trend. And what are you hearing from Latino voters across the state about how they're approaching this election and how do Democrats like yourself kind of capture that imagination of that community again? I think the reason why Trump won and why he was able to capture the Latino vote in the Valley and in Texas is because he said the system is rigged. And it is rigged.

17:07Which tracks with how a lot of people feel. Yeah. That's right. People know it. Democrats had not been saying that. Democrats have been defending a system that is indefensible, that is actually working against us. And that is where Democrats lost credibility, right? Now, of course, Trump's rigged it for himself and people see it and they don't like it, right? And if you look at the polling, Trump is underwater in Texas. People feel betrayed. But listen, in this high cost economy, people just want to know, are you going to work to make my life easier? Greg Abbott has been in charge for 12 years.

17:40It is harder to make it in Texas than it used to be before he was governor. I think people who aren't from border states misinterpret the border issue. It's obviously very nuanced in Texas. How do you think the administration's handling of border security first, but then immigration enforcement separate will affect this race? How will that play out among voters in Texas? So crossings are way down, and that is because of President Trump. That is true. And it is also true that Joe Biden did not lead on border security and Democrats got punished. Now what is happening with these ICE raids are not making us safer.

18:19They're making us more under threat. They are targeting our communities. They are racially profiling Texans. And people are angry about it. If you talk to the DA in Harris County, he will say he can't prosecute child sex abuse cases because the witnesses have been detained or deported or are too afraid to come forward. We used to make exceptions in the name of public safety for those kinds of things. But now we have almost a mercenary system where private prison companies are running these detention centers and making profits off of locking up hardened criminals and grandmothers and children. right which is why we have kids who are being locked up in texas with their parents like little liam did the administration overplay their hand on that issue i just think border security is different than what ice is doing those are two different things we want secure borders absolutely we do we want to be safe and secure in our communities there there are a lot of democrats who are going to go to congress next year who are going to call for abolishing ice is that something you'd support as governor of Texas?

19:25What I support, I won't have a say in that, but what I support is that we get back to a kind of policing where there's some accountability and transparency, and ICE is not exhibiting that. I will say that. Look, in Texas, we require dash cams on our car, on our patrol vehicles, body cams on our officers. We don't allow for masked agents. All of those things are anti-transparency, anti-accountability. And so people are scared and rightfully so. That's not how America is supposed to operate. And that is not how we operate in Texas. Gina Nahosa, got to leave it there. Thank you. Thank you. Okay, we're going to take a quick break.

20:06And when we come back, I'm going to be talking to Matthew Watkins. He's the editor-in-chief of the Texas Tribune about his view on what's happening on the ground all across Texas.

20:19At Fanatic Sportsbook, we're talking real fan cash on every bet. Spend it on jerseys, tickets, collectibles, and more. Rewards hit different here. New customers can bet and get up to$1 ,000 in fan cash over 10 days. Fanatics, the only sportsbook to reward every bet. Must be 21 plus. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or 1-800-MY-RESET. CT, call 888-789-7777. MA, call 800-327-5050. And Y, call 877-8-HOPE-NY. MD, visit mdgamblinghelp.org. Offer not available in all states. Terms apply. See Fanatic's app for details. This holiday, all plans, even unlimited, are just$15 a month. A holiday deal this good obviously deserves an enormously expensive holiday song, like All I Want.

20:58Right. Okay, we can afford that. You know what? Forget the music budget. We're going to stick with whatever's in the public domain. Give it a try at mintmobile.com slash switch. Upfront payment of$45 for three months,$90 for six months, or$180 for a 12-month plan required,$15 per month equivalent, taxes and fees extra. New customer offer for initial plan term only. Greater than 50 gigabytes may slow when network is busy. See terms. At Jared Jewelers, we know it's about more than fine jewelry. It's the moment they open the box. That smile they can't hide. Knowing you chose exactly right. Because the right gift can bring a lifetime of meaning.

21:34A promise. A milestone. A memory in the making. Make every moment unforgettable. Find great gifts starting at$250. Jared. Make the holiday last forever. Shop Jared Jewelers.

21:52And we're back with Here's the Scoop, election edition. If my voice sounds a little different this week, it's probably my old Texas accent coming back as we're recording this episode from Austin. I'm here as part of the annual Texas Tribune Festival. The Tribune is a nonprofit digital first news organization that launched back in 2009. Their politics coverage is excellent and it's insightful, and their reporters and editors tend to really understand this state well. And I'm joined now by one of those editors, Matthew Watkins. He's spent his whole career in Texas journalism and became the Tribune's editor-in-chief in 2024.

22:27He's an Aggie, but we won't hold that against him, and we won't talk about Kentucky. We'll focus on these big races here instead. Matt, sorry for the cheap shot about A &M, but thank you for being here. Yeah, thank you for supporting me during this dark time. You'll be okay. You'll be okay. I just want to start with some historical context. I mean, why do you think Texas has been such a steep mountain to climb for Democrats these last 30 years? It's a conservative state. I mean, that's the simple but right answer, right? And I think people have seen the demographic changes in this state, state becoming less white, more Hispanic, more urban and suburban as opposed to rural.

23:07And those have been things that have maybe made people think that it might move more democratic. But, you know, people move here in part because of its reputation as a conservative state. Actually, people who have moved to Texas vote more Republican than people who were born here, interestingly enough. So, you know, there's just a lot of culture here that has been here for a long time. And it's hard to change that. It's also hard for an underdog party to run a campaign here because it's such a big state. So many big media markets where you have to buy TV ads. And so I think Democrats for a very long time have sort of been like, why invest here when I can my money will go three times as far and, you know, insert other swing state Nevada or Georgia or anything like that.

23:52And so it's been hard for the people on the ground trying to flip the state to get the buy in needed to really run serious campaigns. Gina Hinojosa is making an argument trying to ask people to set aside the culture war issues and focus on economic issues. Do you think that's possible with Texas voters? Is that perhaps a unique opportunity this cycle when the economy is so front of mind for people? Yeah, I would say something feels very unusual about this cycle and that people, you travel around the state, people are really worked up about things that don't necessarily evenly split among that partisan shift.

24:28It's data centers. It's affordability, housing affordability, other type of inflation. It's interesting things with the electric grid, right? And I think that has been a real opportunity for Democrats to say, like, you know, we don't need to pay attention to some of these other things. The question is, there's a lot of money pouring into this state right now on the Republican side, and we're going to see a lot of television ads pushing those culture war issues. Will they be able, will the Democrats be able to sort of sustain that blitz and will that move the needle at all? Tallarico and Hinojosa have both tried to put some distance between themselves and the National Democratic Party.

25:07What is the Democratic Party brand in Texas, if anything? And is that an effective strategy, do you think? I will say in 2024, Texas had been sort of shifting more toward the center in the way it votes. The margin of victory at the top of the ticket was going down and going down and going down. And then in 2024, it went the other way. And that felt meaningful to me because so much of the campaigning was around those social issues. And it just didn't go well. And that's, you know, people point to like the Hispanic voters in the state, a community that had been sort of viewed as Democratic. And Republicans were able to sort of pull some of those voters away a lot of times focusing on those social issues.

25:54So it's, you know, it's not going to be easy. There's, you know, Greg Abbott has a ton of resources. You know, there's more than$100 million coming in to bolster Ken Paxton. We'll see whether they are able to convince folks that, OK, you still need to care about these issues. When things like the border, you know, the border is very calm right now, in large part because of the things that Donald Trump has done. And that's made a lot of voters happy here. It's also sort of taken away that issue. We talked about this with Hina Hossa, the difference between border security, on which Republican policies have been very popular, and what ICE is doing now in internal enforcement, which has drawn a backlash.

26:35I mean, do you think it's possible that there'll be a backlash to Republican policies on that issue? I mean, if you look at the polling, if you look at how some special elections have gone between 2024 and 2026, the answer seems to be clearly yes. There are a lot of, you know, again, Hispanic people in the state who worry about, even if they are citizens, whether they're going to be profiled or, you know, approached or bothered by ICE. I also think, you know, smart people have sort of made the point that maybe it's about order, you know, and when people saw those images of people crossing over, it felt like disorder.

27:07But now they see, you know, people being shot in the streets and it still feels like disorder. And so now it's the Republicans who are responsible for that disorder. And maybe that affects how people view those issues. The Latino vote is always a big part of the story here in Texas. Donald Trump had a much better share with those voters in 2024 than other Republicans have had recently. What kind of numbers do Tallarico and Hinojosa really need to hit on election night if they're going to be successful? Yeah, the polling has suggested, you know, Tallarico running in the 60s with Hispanic voters.

27:41If that happens, it's going to be a really interesting night. But Beto O 'Rourke did better than that. Right. He still came up short. Right. That's true. But the state has continued to change. You know, the thing that really held the state for Republicans in that Beto O 'Rourke race was rural Texas, an area that continues to lose population. And the areas where Democrats do strong continue to gain population. So the demographics continue to shift in the state in that way. And you look at places like there was earlier this year a special election for state Senate. Taylor Remitt was the candidate.

28:15A heavy, heavy Republican district, suburban, very Hispanic. And Taylor Remitt won that race. the Democrat won that race because of that shift. And if we see those sort of numbers replicate, special elections can be kind of weird. But if we see those numbers replicate, I'm not saying that Tallarico is going to win. But what I am saying is we're going to go into that night not knowing who's going to win. And that's unusual in Texas. Republicans have been trying to reassure themselves and their voters that they've seen something like this before with the Beto race, that it was, you know, Democrats were feeling really good in September and October.

28:49And then state looked like it traditionally does. Outline what you think are the key similarities and differences between O 'Rourke versus Ted Cruz and Tallarico versus Paxton now. Yeah, I would say the similarities, of course, are it's a midterm election with Donald Trump in the White House. The party that controls the White House tends to do worse during those times. There's a candidate who has people excited. Beto O 'Rourke really sparked an energy, and Tallarico has that energy behind him as well. He's really good on social media. He had, you know, before he entered this race, he had the biggest following of any state representative on TikTok or Instagram in the entire country.

29:27The difference is, I think, again, some of the political, like what people are talking about is different, what we talked about earlier about, you know, topics like data centers, some of those like less partisan issues on the race. And the other difference is that Tallarico is leading in the polls. And that never happened in the Beto race. It was close, and people took notice because it was close. But the last 12 polls from independent pollsters that the Tribune tracks on our poll tracker, Tallarico has had the lead. Beto had led maybe one poll the entire cycle. And at this point in the race, it was down by five, six percentage points in the polls.

30:03We haven't talked a lot about Ken Paxton, but obviously he's kind of a uniquely flawed candidate in a number of ways. is what problems does having him on the ticket where he is present for Republicans who are not named Ken Paxton? And what are the challenges that he's going to face for keeping that race competitive? Yeah. One of the interesting stories is that when Beto lost that race, one of the things that happened were a lot of state representatives flipped seats, state senators flipped seats, including James Tallarico. That was the year he was first elected. And I think there's a lot of fear, even if Paxton wins this race, that some of those other races are going to go the other direction and it's going to just have a long-term impact on the politics of the state.

30:48Paxton, you're right, he's a flawed candidate. He was impeached by the Republican Texas House. He has been under criminal investigations. I think what we are going to see for the rest of this campaign is not necessarily a pro-Paxton campaign, but an anti-Talerico campaign. You may not love this guy. I mean, Trump says this, right? You may not love the way he talks. You may not love the way he dresses, but you really don't want James Talerico representing you in this state. And again, we'll see if that message works. In some other states, we're starting to see Republican lawmakers distance themselves from the president on things like Iran, on affordability.

31:24Have we seen any of that in Texas so far? And do you think we will? Not really. No. I mean, I think— Ken Paxton sort of can't distance himself from Trump. Exactly. And I think he needs those voters, right? Like, his goal is going to be turning people off from Tallarico and trying to excite that Trump base as much as possible and convince them to show up during a season where that might be a challenge. So I don't know about that. I mean, I think, again, Abbott is a different scenario and you might see a different case there. I'm sort of fascinated by this dynamic nationwide about the Republicans losing rural voters, but Democrats still have to gain them, right?

32:07Like that seems to be the gap. I think there's a lot of rural voters who are ready to vote for somebody else, but they're not yet sold on the Democrats who are available to them. Yeah. And then the question is, do you are you mad enough to vote for a Democrat? I think my gut tells me a lot of these folks. the answer to that question is no. But are you so mad that you're not going to get up and drive 20 minutes to the poll on election day or before election day? That is the bigger question. And I think there's a lot of worry. Like, I mean, really, if you go to town halls with state legislators, if you go to these campaigns, there is a lot of anger there.

32:44And the Republicans in the state are really, really scrambling to sort of respond to that and show that they're listening and will hear that anger the next time they meet in the legislature. Do you think there's a similar thing at play with Tallarico and the Cornyn voters out there? I mean, he's tried very hard to leave an open door to Cornyn voters to be welcome in his campaign. Is he likely to get them or do you think he's more likely to get them to stay home? I think that there's a certain segment of Republican that is so disgusted with Paxton that they're not going to cast a vote for him and might even sort of quietly vote for Tallarico.

33:20Like I hear that from some former legislators, some people in the political world. The question is like how much does that translate to the average voter? One of the mistakes people made about this race is they were like Paxton has been elected statewide many times. So everyone knows him and knows who he is. but it's a whole different thing running the fifth name the fifth race down on the ballot from the top name on the ballot and I think people are learning a lot about him now and that kind of cuts both ways so that those sort of like internal Republican party squabbles are not as familiar to the average voter in you know Plano Texas or something so again I think it's more about energizing and people maybe choosing to stay home or skip that race than like a massive amount of Republicans coming over and supporting James Tallarico.

34:19I'm trying to think of some of the other sort of voting groups that, you know, can drive some of these elections. I mean, Tallarico has had problems consolidating the African-American vote. What are you seeing in terms of that? Is he making progress there? Yeah. You know, so this was he was in a heated primary with Jasmine Crockett, the representative from the Dallas area. There were a lot of people who felt that not Tallarico himself, but maybe some of his surrogates were saying things about Crockett that, you know, you might not say about a white man, but would say about a black woman. And there's a lot of harsh feelings about that.

34:55I mean, Crockett is not campaigning with Tallarico. She's saying she's spending her time focusing on down ballot. But, you know, he was at a black church in Dallas over the weekend. The polls seem to suggest that he has black voter support. They argue that this is sort of like a cooked up media narrative. There are certainly some people who are opposed or, you know, have some harsh feelings. But when you see that opportunity to perhaps get the first Democratic victory in a generation in the state, it feels like people are kind of falling in line in the Democratic Party behind him. So what will you be watching for in these last couple of weeks to try to see how this is all going to shake out?

35:34I think whether these attacks move the needle, is Tallarico able to convince people that he's not a fringe candidate? You know, the sort of mask wearing, you know, there's six genders type things. There are some quotes that he has given in the past where he says things like that. And I think he's backed away from those. He's tried to moderate. Do people buy that? Do people care this time around? There's one other person we should probably ask about. Since we're in Austin doing a podcast, the world's most famous Austin-based podcaster, Joe Rogan, kind of put James Tallarico on the map. Did Joe Rogan create a permission structure to at least go check out James Tallarico?

36:22I think so. I think so, yeah. And that – it only needs to happen around the margins, right? People talked about Joe Rogan about there was a time where he might be more aligned with the Democratic Party. And what we saw in 2024 was that whole segment that saw the Democrats as sort of woke and wimpy and not manly or whatever. They rushed to Trump. And if they don't rush to Trump again this year, this state looks a lot different than it did in 2024. Matthew Watkins, we'll leave it there. Thanks for having me.

37:02And that's going to do it for us today on Here's a Scoop Election Edition. Thank you for joining us. Next week on the show, we're going to talk about how secure our elections are and why they're likely to be contentious anyway. It is so terrible. Our elections are so rigged and crooked. For the past decade, President Trump and many Republicans have been railing against what they call a rigged system. So we're going to two states that have been battlegrounds for lawsuits in the past, Pennsylvania and Georgia. That's next Saturday on Here's the Scoop Election Edition. Our show was produced by Caroline Kenney and Amanda Llewellyn.

37:37Erica Huang and Bobby Carlisto engineered with support from Jessica Fenton and Jacob Condon. Kateri Yocum is the executive producer of Here's the Scoop. And Shalini Sharma is the senior vice president for content development at NBC News. I'm Garrett Haake. See you next time.

38:02Real talent is defined by what people can do, not where they learn to do it. So by stopping at the education section of a resume, you might throw away the perfect hire. Skills First Hiring helps you see talent others miss, like more than 70 million stars, skilled through alternative routes. Let their story unfold and gain a competitive advantage, because hiring managers who start with skills are 60 % more likely to find a successful hire. Hire Skills First. Learn why at tearthepaperceiling.org. Brought to you by Opportunity at Work and the Ad Council.

From the publisher

For decades, Texas has been the deep-red heart of the Republican Party. For Democrats, it’s the white whale. 

But this midterm cycle, political observers think they may have a chance. In the Senate contest, most polls show Democratic State Rep. James Talarico ahead of Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton by a few points. And in the race for governor, Democratic State Rep. Gina Hinojosa is in surprisingly close competition with the incumbent, Republican Greg Abbott, despite being outspent by a mile. 

For this episode of Here’s the Scoop, Election Edition, NBC News chief White House correspondent Garrett Haake headed to Austin to sit down with Hinojosa and Texas Tribune Editor-in-Chief Matthew Watkins to ask: Could this finally be Democrats’ year in Texas? swap.fm/l/htsfd


Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

More from Meet the Press

All episodes