Meet the Press NOW — October 14

0:28A minute, a minute, a minute, a minute. At Jared Jewelers, we know it's about more than fine jewelry. It's the moment they open the box. That smile they can't hide. Knowing you chose exactly right. Because the right gift can bring a lifetime of meaning. A promise. A milestone. A memory in the making. Make every moment unforgettable. Find great gifts starting at$250. Jared. Make the holiday last forever. Shop Jared Jewelers.

1:11welcome to meet the press now i'm kristen welker with less than three weeks until election day the president is set to speak at any moment now in arizona as republicans confront another batch of disappointing economic news showing the cost of living is rising faster than expected Prices for consumers were up 3.7 percent in September compared to a year ago, according to the Labor Department. It's the highest level since May. Inflation has frustrated voters and policymakers since the start of the war in Iran, which has driven up energy costs. Last month, energy costs overall were up 20 percent compared to the previous year.

1:49Gasoline, 34 percent higher and fuel oil, 74 percent higher than last year. Today, the president's top economic advisor acknowledging the report was disappointing. A lot of Trump policies are helping to keep inflation down, but the energy shock is really the headline story today. But the bottom line is that you're correct that this was a disappointing number. Now it comes as a new poll shows a third of voters say inflation and prices are the most important issues to them, with another 11 percent saying jobs in the economy are the most important. Frustration with those numbers also reflected in conversations our NBC News team has had with voters in recent days all across the country.

2:31The economy, the cost of particularly in an agricultural state of diesel is affecting our trucking industry, certainly our farmers. Food prices, everything at the grocery store is higher because of the rise in diesel costs and the tariffs. So it's kind of a double whammy for everybody. You just watch the price of everything go up. Everything is really affected by the fuel, so a lot of people are pissed off. We have the skyrocketing prices that people cannot afford. Gas, I just filled up and it cost me more than it ever has in my life. The president is trying to neutralize some of those headwinds by hitting the road and touting what he views as his biggest accomplishments.

3:12This afternoon's visit to Arizona marks his 11th campaign stop this month after rallying supporters in Alaska last night with his spin on jobs, costs and the war. Everything that you hear about that you're cheering about tonight, the jobs are going to be unbelievable. Your costs are coming way down anyway. We're very close to winning. I mean, we've I think we've won the war because they won. Iran will not have a nuclear weapon. Let me put it that way. But that'll end very soon. That war is going to end very soon. And when it does, your prices are going to come tumbling down. The president heads to Montana's first congressional district later this evening to stump for Republican candidate Aaron Flint, who is locked in a closer than expected race against Democrat Sam Forstag, who we will be speaking with a little bit later on this hour.

4:02But first, let's bring in Chief White House Correspondent Garrett Haake, who is in Arizona with the president. And with me, business and data correspondent Brian Chung. Garrett, let me start with you. What are you expecting to hear from the president? Well, good afternoon, Kristen. It's a beautiful day in the Arizona desert here. I think we're going to hear a lot from the president about his tax program today. That's what the White House has indicated. The No Tax on Tip program, which is popular both here and especially across the border in Nevada or just across the Colorado River from Clark County in Las Vegas.

4:35That'll come up a good deal here. So, too, no tax on Social Security. This is a state with a higher than average proportion of retirees. So I expect those to be top issues. as well as the president's effort to secure the border. It was striking listening to him last night talking about securing the southern border in Alaska several thousand miles away. Obviously, here in Arizona, that issue is much more front of mind and much more likely to be resonant with voters here who are deciding a couple of competitive congressional races and a governor's race where the candidates here have all made that a key part of their message in the undercard to the president today, if you will, Kristen.

5:11And Garrett, as you've been talking, we are watching Air Force One touchdown in Bullhead City, Arizona. So I anticipate he will be taking the podium shortly. As we talked about, Garrett, he's going to be heading to Montana a little bit later on this evening to campaign in a House race there. Just how much concern does the White House have based on your conversations about some of these red state races, Garrett? it. Look, publicly, they always project confidence, but the White House sees the same public polls we do, and some of their private polls use the same pollsters. They understand the state of play here, and they're trying to be helpful where they can.

5:48I think that stop in Montana is a good example of a place where they might be able to be more helpful. You know, Montana, nominally a red state, but that first congressional district is always a little bit swingy, and the president may be able to be useful there. The same way he's useful here, this is one of the reddest counties in the entire country here in Mojave County in northwest Arizona. So, you know, the White House trying to take advantage of the places where the president is popular while acknowledging even that map is shrinking. Garrett, as we laid out, the president has been on the road for most of this month.

6:22What's the strategy here? Well, some of it's strategy and some of it is dealing with a principal who wants to be front and center. I mean, the White House has been pretty open in saying They know that Democrats are going to use the president against Republican candidates all across the map. Why not try to use him in support of those candidates where they think it can be helpful? This I mean, again, this I think is a very good example of a place where the president could actually be helpful in firing up the base. But something is also that this is a president who wants to be involved, who wants to be front and center and on the minds of voters for better or worse.

6:56He says that at every campaign stop that he wants Republican voters in particular to treat it like he is on the ballot. The problem for the White House is it's also independent and Democratic voters who are acting as though he is on the ballot. And the polling is pretty clear that net-net, that's not going to work out in Republicans' favor. So he's going to go where he wants to go. I think the interesting question to see is where are Republican candidates campaigning with him and where are they not? We've not heard today from Jay Feely or Juan Siskamani, who are in two of the most competitive races statewide or congressional races here in Arizona.

7:31They were not on the undercard. They're not expected to speak or appear with the president today. Those missing members are just as telling as those who think they can draft on the president's coattails. All of those tea leaves are so important with less than three weeks to know. Garrett Hake doing an incredible job of talking over the music and a raucous crowd there in Arizona. Garrett, keep us posted. Thanks so much for starting us off. Brian, let me turn to you, a much quieter studio there. Look, let's talk about these inflation numbers. There was a jump in inflation last month. Walk us through the numbers.

8:06What are the implications? Yeah, well, let's talk about the numbers. 3.7 percent. That's how much prices rose in America, according to this new read from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, compared to September of last year. And you can see just over the course of 2028, these readings have been going higher, notably around the timing of that war, which began earlier this year. So the big story when it comes to the consumer price index is the read, of course, on gasoline. This accounted for about half, more than half of the monthly rise in this index. In just one month alone between August and September, gasoline prices up by 9%.

8:39Fuel oil costs also up over 15%. And also, you can't forget about the second order effects of higher gas prices as well. Fuel oil has also led to higher airline tickets. We've seen a 1 % increase in just a month for airline fares as we get closer to the holiday season where people are likely trying to book flights right now. So these are all the impacts of the war from a bottom dollar impact at the kitchen table, which I mean literally, because we're also talking about changing prices for the things that are likely in your grocery baskets as well. Again, we're still talking about monthly numbers here between August and September.

9:13Chicken prices are up by 1 % after rising in the previous month as well. Egg prices are down, I should point out, on a yearly basis as well as on a monthly basis down 1%. Milk costs are down. Ground beef costs are down as well. But the big story is that people are living experience. They're really not looking at the percentage of change on a month to month basis. They're just thinking over the past year, over the past two years since the second administration, costs are still broadly rising. That is the reason why affordability does remain an issue in this final read on inflation going into the midterms.

9:44Kristen. Yeah, still the top issue for so many voters. Brian, the president, of course, has announced efforts to try to lower energy costs, including that stunning announcement that drew backlash from even members of his own party that he was going to lift sanctions on Russian diesel. How much of an actual impact does something like that have on energy prices, Brian? Well, when you take a look at this report and you see that the monthly figures were such that the huge rise that we saw here was because of energy costs, if the president is successful in getting those energy costs down, making these numbers negative instead of as substantially positive as they are right now, that would bring down overall inflation.

10:21And it would lead to lower prices at the pump, which everyday Americans kind of index and they see it every day. They're able to measure it because they pass it every single day on the way to and from work. But again, the big story here still is that it's only about half of the inflationary story. All the other things that are bleeding through, you have to remember tariffs are a big part of this as well because of the biting impact of tariffs on our neighbors to North Canada, as well as those overseas. That is a big reason why the Federal Reserve is also watching very closely to see whether or not this inflation is something a little bit worse than just the headline that has to do with spiking oil prices.

10:55Kristen. All right, Brian Chung and Garrett Haik beforehand. Thank you both so very much. Well, the economy was also top of mind for candidates in a trio of Senate debates last night as Democrats tried to tie their Republican opponents to the president. In Iowa, Democrat Josh Turek blamed Congresswoman Ashley Hinson for driving up fuel prices with her boats on the Iran war. But the pair found common ground when it came to the president's plan to lift sanctions on Russia to lower diesel costs. Look, we need to we need to lower gas prices in this country. We need to lower diesel prices. But I don't think we need to be making a deal with Russia to do it.

11:32We actually agree on this. I want to do everything that I can because everywhere I'm going all across Iowa, I'm hearing from Iowans talking about gas prices and diesel prices. But let's remember exactly why we're in this situation. We are in this situation because of this unnecessary war in Iran that Ashley Hinson voted in favor of continuing seven times. Would you switch your vote today on the War Powers Act in order to end the conflict in Iran? Yes or no? 30 seconds. I don't think we need another resolution on the House floor. I think the president and the U.S. military can bring it to the end.

12:06Joining me now from Iowa is NBC's Maggie Vespa. Also with me, Henry Gomez, who has new reporting on another closely watched Senate race in Michigan. Maggie, let me start with you. Look, this was the second debate that we were just watching between Turek and Hinson. What were the biggest takeaways? Right. Well, Kristen, I can tell you the first thing that I asked Hinson staff after the debate when they came into the spin room. I said your Democratic opponent, Josh Turek, our current state representative, he hammered on affordability more than Hinson did during this debate. He wove it into like every answer that he possibly could.

12:43And somewhere you wouldn't think it would be connected. There was a question about broadening access to water filtration systems in the homes of Iowans. And he brought it back to affordability and then hammered Hinson again on her votes to support the Iran war, her votes to support tariffs amid the president's trade war. He kept, as you point out, tying her votes, her policies to the president's. Hinson herself went after Turek for other things, other attacks that we've seen in the past, highlighting that he missed close to 60 percent of House votes in the state legislature over the past session.

13:14But again, didn't bring up the affordability crisis as much as her Democratic opponent. Her campaign said she's very aware of it. She advocates on behalf of farmers to the White House. But again, watching that dichotomy there, Kristen, was really interesting. Such an interesting strategy there, Maggie. So look, you've been out, you've been talking to voters. Do you in fact think that frustration over the economy is going to drive most voters? We know that polls say it's the top issue. It is the top issue. And by the way, early voting starts today. A number of people that we've talked to think that it absolutely could.

13:48We're standing on the farm right now of a man named Aaron Lehman. He is the president of the Iowa Farmers Union. Want to be clear, he himself, registered Democrat. He's never voted for Donald Trump, but he says he's talked to a number of Republican farmers who have voted for the president, did in 2024. And now they're unsure of which way they're going to go with less than three weeks left. Here's part of what he said. Not all farmers voted one way or another in previous elections, but we know that a good number did vote for this administration. But the policies that have come out, the decisions that have been made by this administration have been so harmful.

14:28Rural people don't want to be ignored in the political process. Oftentimes, our rural folks feel ignored by one or both parties. They also don't want to be manipulated. They don't want their vote taken for granted. it.

14:47And Kristen, we heard a similar point from other voters we talked to yesterday, including a Republican who said, I think you'll actually find more potential swing voters in rural parts of the state because they're so frustrated with these policies and with the increase in cost of living. Well, those swing voters could decide everything, as you know, Maggie. And I know you've been tracking the governor's race as well. After we spoke to you yesterday, you talked to the Republican candidate, Zach Lane. What did he tell you? Yeah, it was really interesting. I want to point out the Senate race dubbed a toss up by our decision desk.

15:19The governor's race showing that the Democrat Rob Sand could have a slight edge. We asked Zach Lane, his Republican opponent himself, a farmer, by the way, about these increases in costs for farmers. And here was his take. If you look at the President Trump's term right now, prices have went up five percent. We all want those to come down. The president's talking about coming down. But over his term, price went up five percent. It for specifically for your question, if they're flirting with the idea of voting for Democrats, prices went up 21 percent under Joe Biden. And Chris, I'll point out back to Lehman, back to the farmer here.

15:54He acknowledged, listen, prices have been going up. Costs have been going up for farmers. Our profits have been shrinking for at least a decade. Like that part of this is not new. He said what farmers in Iowa are frustrated about is they feel like these recent increases for diesel and for fertilizer. They came from optional choices, he believes. And he says a lot of people believe by the president. starting this war in Iran, starting this trade war, implementing these tariffs. They feel like it could have been avoided and it's just made the pain all the worse for them moving forward. Well, great interviews, Maggie Vespa.

16:25Thank you so much for your reporting. We really appreciate it. Henry, let me turn to you. And that big Senate race in Michigan doesn't get much bigger, right? You have some new reporting on the different strategies that Rogers and Al-Sayed are leaning into with their closing arguments. Yeah, that's right, Kristen. I mean, it really is a tale of two campaigns. There's just stark contrasts between how Abdul El-Sayed, the Democrat, and former Congressman Mike Rogers, the Republican, are going about selling themselves to voters down the stretch in Michigan. Abdul El-Sayed likes to brag about how many town halls he's held, how many rallies he's holding, how often he makes himself available to members of the media.

17:04Rogers, by contrast, has been getting some criticism, including from Republicans who don't think he's been out there enough. And El-Sayed has been mocking him for not doing as many interviews, for not doing many of these events. When I was in Michigan last week, I did ask Mike Rogers, you know, why aren't you doing more? What do you think about the criticism that you haven't been out there as much? And he said it's by design that he is prioritizing smaller events, private events with different groups of people. He also accused El-Sayed of being, he's called him performative. He said that he's out there basically making people come to him and that the Rogers campaign isn't doing that.

17:42They're meeting voters where they're at. They're not asking them to come be props in big rallies like they believe El-Sayed is. He also keeps hitting El-Sayed for his TikTok videos, for dancing to Taylor Swift on TikTok. He made a comment at a barn party that he held with some of his supporters last week that his wife told him that if she ever finds him dancing on TikTok, she'll leave him. So these really are just two different styles. I'll say I'd be everything, everywhere, all at once. And Mike Rogers just running a lower key, lower profile campaign that you might have seen back before the Trump era.

18:18Yeah, their approaches to this could not be more distinct, Henry. It's really great insight. I want to play something. Our colleague Tom Yamas just sat down with Abdullah al-Sayed for a one-on-one interview exclusive for Nightly News. And we are getting our first look at that interview. Take a look. You were asked this question to debate, but I do want to get an answer. You were asked, what is a bigger threat to the U.S., Israel or Iran? You said it was a ridiculous hypothetical. Well, let me ask you, do you think Israel is a bigger, a bigger threat than Iran? Why are we at war with Iran right now?

18:53Why did we condemn them? The president says they were building a nuclear weapon. Well, it's also, who was the one foreign operative? Somebody who works for a foreign government, who was invited to the situation room to pitch the case. Do you know? You're talking about Israel. It was the prime minister of Israel. So if your ally, ostensibly, is getting you into a war, does that make you safer? So you do think Israel is as big as a threat? I just want to nail you on this. When we look at our situation in the world. You think they're equally a threat to the U.S.? When we look at our situation in the world, there is actively more war in the world because of what Israel is pushing us into.

19:27We should never have fought a war with Iran. Right. I agree that Iran is a dangerous threat. That's not that's not a question. But I also think that when you ostensibly have an ally that's pushing you into war with the country that is threatening you, that does not make you any safer. So you think they're as dangerous? You look at this. I'm telling you exactly what I think. You just don't think that I'm telling you. No, I get it. So let me just explain my point. We are in a war we should not be fighting. Israel had very clear war aims. They wanted the annexation of southern Lebanon. They wanted to continue to pursue what is a bigger boundary around themselves.

20:01Has that made us any safer? Has that improved our lives? We're paying$5 gas. We're paying more for groceries. Because of a war we should not be fighting, at the behest of whom? The government of Israel. So do you want to tell me that that's somehow good for us? I just don't think that's the case. So the question about Iran is not a question. Yes, they have been a dangerous threat. Now, the question to me is, you think Israel also? You think they're both? Yes. There's no look, we pay last month alone. We paid two point eight billion dollars for two thousand pound bombs for a foreign government.

20:28Right. Do you think that makes us safer? Is that good for us? What could we do with two point eight billion dollars? I'd rather spend it on our schools here. I'd rather spend it on our infrastructure here to tell me that somehow that is what you do with an ally. It just seems to me to be insane, especially when they're dragging you into wars. You have no business fighting that you end up paying more for in gas and groceries. Henry, what do you make of that exchange? Obviously, Elsa had was asked that question during the debate, called it a ridiculous question. Tom went back at that question and pushed him to acknowledge, yes, he thinks both are a threat.

20:58How's that going to play? Well, I mean, it was having heard Elsa be asked that question several times last week and then, as you mentioned, not answering it. I thought Tom really did draw him out more and really, you know, assigning an explicit equivalence between the two countries. So how's that going to play? I mean, this was a huge issue for El-Sayed in the primary with Jewish Democratic voters who were more aligned with Haley Stevens, his opponent. It's going to be an issue again in November. Mike Rogers is trying to pick off support from Jewish Democrats. And, you know, it could it could make a difference in a very close race.

21:34All right, Henry, thank you so much. And again, great reporting on the strategies within the two campaigns. We really appreciate it. We're going to have much more of Tom's interview later this hour and on a special edition of Nightly News and Top Story live from Detroit. That's coming up on NBC News Now. Coming up, perilous politics. Speaker Mike Johnson says he does not believe the polls insisting Republicans are going to keep control of the House despite major economic headwinds and new signs that Democrats could be making inroads. I'll get the view from an outgoing Republican congressman. You're watching Meet the Press now.

22:14ever notice how every new ai tool asks you to explain your business to it all over again google workspace with gemini skips that you get google's ai built right into the premium versions of gmail docs sheets and more no new tools no extra logins just one subscription that gives you personalized ai right inside your actual workflow make work less work try google workspace with Gemini at go.gle slash workspace with Gemini. If you like YouTube, you'll love YouTube Premium. Hi, I'm Sean Evans from Hot Ones, and I want to tell you about YouTube Premium. It has offline downloads, so you can watch without Wi-Fi.

22:55Background play, so you can lock your phone and it still plays, baby. Oh, and it is completely ad-free. Yes, I said it, ad-free. Try YouTube premium for two months free at youtube.com slash premium. Trial eligibility varies. Terms apply. Cancel anytime. Jimmy Conrad here and I have something to put on your radar. The core short from Viore because after getting my first pair, I was hooked. They work for everything that I like doing. Soccer, tennis, hoops, and lifting weights to name a few. And they're unbelievably comfortable, which is why I wear them doing everything else. They're designed to work for whatever your day throws at you.

23:33For our listeners, they're offering 20 % off your first purchase. So head to viore.com slash footy. That's V-U-O-R-I dot com slash F-O-O-T-Y. Exclusions apply. Visit the site for full details.

23:48Welcome back. You are looking at live pictures of President Trump speaking in Bullhead City, Arizona, continuing his campaign swing across the U.S. in mostly red states, stumping for Republican candidates, asking voters to pretend he is on the ballot. We are monitoring the president's remarks and will, of course, dip in or update you if there is anything newsworthy. Well, despite significant economic and political headwinds heading into the midterms, Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson says he remains confident his party will keep the majority. Our NBC News polling average shows Democrats with an eight-point advantage on which party voters want to control Congress.

24:30And President Trump, who's been on a midterm blitz to boost Republican candidates, is facing an average approval rating that is 22 points underwater. Speaker Johnson at a campaign event in Texas yesterday insisting Republicans can hang on. If we do our duty, if we stand for freedom, if we cast that ballot and we get everybody else who loves freedom to do the same, I believe the result is going to be a positive one. I believe we're going to defy these crazy polls, and I believe we're going to win the election. We should note it's not just public polling signaling a difficult environment for Republicans.

25:09It's also the president's travel schedule and GOP ad spending. NBC News is learning that Republicans have shifted money away from two key battleground house seats in New Jersey and Iowa, a sign the GOP is having to make tough choices in the final stretch of the campaign. Joining me now is outgoing Republican Congressman Dusty Johnson of South Dakota. Congressman, thanks so much for joining me. Really appreciate it. Thanks for having me. Well, we are less than three weeks away until the midterms. You just heard the speaker's confidence about keeping the majority. But of course, others in the party, including Nancy Mace, are predicting a, quote, bloodbath in November.

25:47Who's right here? We're not going to know until Election Day. Obviously, the polls don't look good for Republicans. It's not unusual in a midterm election to have a pretty big polling error. Now, historically, I mean, they've been pretty balanced on whether it's been errors that occur to the benefit of Democrats or Republicans. Generally, these errors are not purposeful. They're just the difficulty that comes with trying to get 400 people to speak for a million or more. I would say this, though, at least on the House side, where I know so many of these candidates personally, it's hard for me to overstate what good candidates an Ashley Henson, a Zach Nunn, a Juan Siskamani, a Monica de la Cruz are.

26:30These guys are going to close strong. And even if there's some swing voters irritated with the president, provided those strong Republican candidates can run as themselves, I think they've got a really good chance to win. Do you have a number in your mind of how many what the spread is going to look like when it's all said and done on November 4th? Yeah, I think the range of possibilities goes all the way from Republicans picking up a couple of seats. I mean, let's be honest, a Republican wave is not is not going to happen. But I do think Republicans in the House could hold their own. I also think that because the battlefield seems to be getting a little bit bigger, you could look at some pretty substantial Republican losses.

27:15But but it is still even though we're only three weeks away, polling is not as accurate as it used to be. I'm not saying that to be some sort of a conspiracy theory guy. We have seen pretty big polling errors. I'm not saying they're advertent. I'm just saying it is really hard to say until we start counting the votes. Well, look, the president, as you know, he's out on the campaign trail as we speak. He's going to be holding a rally in Montana tonight, a neighboring state to yours. His approval rating currently at 38 percent in our polling average. Do you think his presence on the campaign trail actually risks backfiring in some of these races that are getting tighter?

27:54Well, these midterm races are so weird, right? I mean, you want to turn out your base and President Trump is really good at that. I mean, when you look at his approval rating among dedicated Republican primary voters, it is still about the best you're going to see in almost any state. But at the same time, you also want to appeal to swing voters, the persuadables. The president's rhetoric sometimes is not quite as well calibrated to that as it is talking to the base. And so I think I mean, I was with him in Dayton, Ohio, maybe 10 days ago now. I had traveled with him. And I think he's he's working on some messages that can appeal to both of those buckets of voters.

28:36We just need to see whether or not it's successful. Well, I want to get your reaction to the messaging that we're hearing from the president. He was at a rally in Alaska. Here's what he had to say on the economy. Look, I got rid of the nuclear threat from Iran, which others should have done. But the oil will be coming down. And it'll be coming down soon. When you look at groceries, when you look at a lot of things, but they're really coming up because so much is driven by oil. They'll be dropping very big. 1.7 inflation in the last three months. Think of that. So we just got new numbers today.

29:17Inflation currently at 3.7 percent. Even core inflation is at 2.5 percent. Do you think the president has the right closing message? I like it when the president is talking policy, when he's talking about the price of fuel, when he's talking about Iran, when he's talking about affordability. I mean, he acknowledges there's inflation. That whole clip he showed, I think, demonstrates that he understands he needs to be talking about the cost of living. That's a Donald Trump that's pretty focused, and I think he can be an effective messenger down the stretch with that. That is a far better message in my mind than talking about Lake Ontario, Kimberly Guilfoyle, or the reflecting pool.

29:56Let's talk issues. Let's talk the economy and acknowledge that there are some real pressure points in this economy. Well, the president also, I want to get you on some policy, announced a proposal to import Russian diesel fuel, which basically means lifting sanctions. That prompted a backlash from some Democrats and Republicans, quite frankly. What did you make of the deal? Did you think that was a good deal? Yeah, I hate that deal. I mean, I understand what the president's trying to do. But the best way to drive down prices is through more American fuel. I mean, I'm just such a big fan of biofuels.

30:34I would much rather wake up in the morning concerned about what a bushel of corn in a South Dakota cornfield costs than what a barrel of oil in an Iranian oil field costs. And the president's done some really good things on energy. But this right, Vladimir Putin is a thug. The guy is a tyrant. I just we can't trust him. And I don't like making deals with him. And I particularly do not like giving him money that he can use, almost certainly for nefarious purposes. Based on what you're saying, do you think that that deal emboldened Vladimir Putin? Oh, I don't understand that guy. He is. Number one, I think Putin's crazy.

31:17I mean, of course, he's evil, but I also think he's crazy. That level of diabolical is a little hard for me to comprehend. So I don't know. But listen, whether emboldens Putin or not, it is not a deal that I'm excited about. All right. Let me ask you about the Senate race in your state. Senator Mike Rounds facing independent candidate Brian Bangs. Do you think an independent candidate could actually win in South Dakota. How are you viewing that race, Congressman? South Dakotans are pretty independent-minded folks, but they are not going to vote for Brian Bangs over Mike Rounds. Mike Rounds has shown a certain amount of independence periodically when he needs to.

31:58He's a good leader. He has represented South Dakota well in the Senate. Mike Rounds is going to win. I know that Democrats are pretty high on hopium right now, and I realize that there are some surprise wins that they're going to pull off potentially on election night, the South Dakota Senate race is not going to be one of them. All right. Well, you heard it here first. Thank you, Congressman Dusty Johnson. Really appreciate your joining us. Appreciate your perspective. Thanks much. Coming up next, meet the candidate. My next guest is a former wildland smoke jumper. He went from parachuting into remote areas to battling wildfires to jumping into the race for Montana's first congressional district in the battle for control of the House.

32:42We'll talk to him next. Keep it right here on Meet the Press Now.

32:50Ever notice how every new AI tool asks you to explain your business to it all over again? Google Workspace with Gemini skips that. You get Google's AI built right into the premium versions of Gmail, Docs, Sheets, and more. No new tools, no extra logins. Just one subscription that gives you personalized AI right inside your actual workflow. Make work less work. Try Google Workspace with Gemini at goo.gle slash workspace with Gemini. If you like YouTube, you'll love YouTube Premium. It's destroying athlete, creator, and YouTube Maxer. YouTube Premium enhances how I use YouTube with awesome features like offline downloads so I can download my favorite training videos before I hit the gym.

33:33So no Wi-Fi doesn't turn leg day into loading day. Plus, I get ad-free videos, background play, and so much more. YouTube Premium is like YouTube got some extra gains. Try YouTube Premium for two months free at youtube.com slash premium. Trial eligibility varies. Terms apply. Cancel anytime. Jimmy Conrad here, and I have something to put on your radar. The Core Short from Viore. Because after getting my first pair, I was hooked. They work for everything that I like doing, soccer, tennis, hoops, and lifting weights to name a few. And they're unbelievably comfortable, which is why I wear them doing everything else.

34:06They are designed to work for whatever your day throws at you. For our listeners, they're offering 20 % off your first purchase. So head to viori.com slash footy. That's V-U-O-R-I dot com slash F-O-O-T-Y. Exclusions apply. Visit the site for full details. Welcome back. As we mentioned, President Trump is set to campaign and reliably read Montana later tonight as he barnstorms the country county, sorry, country in support of Republicans with less than three weeks until the midterm elections. In Montana, President Trump is looking to boost Aaron Flint, who is facing Democrat Sam Forstag in the state's first congressional district.

34:44It's a district President Trump won by nearly 12 points in 2024. Joining me now is Democrat candidate for Montana's first congressional district, Sam Forstag. Thanks so much for joining me. Really appreciate it. Thank you for having me. Appreciate the time. Let's talk about the state of the race here. You are running in a district. President Trump won by almost 12 points. Why do you think you can flip this district? I'll tell you, I know we can flip this district, not only because of the numbers and the numbers show us up three and the latest poll against Aaron Flint, the talk radio host I'm running against here, but also because people across Western Montana, just like a lot of the country, are hurting.

35:25People are drowning in costs, just trying to keep a roof over our head in a state that's got the least affordable housing market in the country, trying to afford health care when every year our premiums go up and the care gets worse. We're in a state where 22 ,000 Montanans just lost care and another 40 ,000 are set to do so with these paperwork requirements. Not to mention our farmers and ranchers who saw bankruptcies triple last year in Montana and are getting punched in the gut, right, when they're getting some breathing room by this administration's tariffs and 300 ,000 metric tons of foreign beef being dropped on the market.

35:55People are hurting, and they're ready for, well, a candidate who actually knows what it's like to be stuck on the wrong side of these systems. And, well, as a smoke jumper, I was parachuting into wildfires to put them out in our public lands. I know what it's like to have to work 1 ,000 hours of overtime, quite literally, just to afford a roof over my head through the winter. This is a unique thing. This is why we're up in the polls right now. And it's why Donald Trump is showing up in Montana tonight to try to bail out my opponent. What do you think the impact of President Trump's stumping there will be?

36:26Yeah, I don't think the stump is going to make a whole lot of difference in this district. People are hurting because of this administration's policies in particular. And as of this morning, my opponent was still advertising that they got tickets that people should snatch up. So I'll be interested to see those stands. I think what will hurt is, well, quite literally, since I've been sitting here in the last 20 minutes, we've learned of another$1.3 million of super PAC money being dumped into this race. I mean, the amount of money awash in these elections is obscene when people are literally being priced at a house and home.

36:59That's what we're up against. It is, to date,$4.5 million of super PAC money in support of Aaron Flint. It hasn't worked. But the reason they're spending that money is because it costs a lot of money to sell this lie to working people in this country that we're each other's enemies. And in this campaign, as the first union member running in Montana in over a decade, as an actual working class person who knows what it's like to break your back and still fall further behind every year, I feel pretty hopeful that we're going to be able to bring people together and build the kind of coalition we used to have not so long ago in the state when Democrats were winning statewide.

37:29Let me ask you a little bit more about your vision, as you've You've been saying the economy, the cost of living, obviously top issues for voters in this election. The average gas price in Montana is four dollars and forty nine cents. I don't have to tell you that diesel above six dollars a gallon. Your opponent says he supports suspending the federal gas tax. Do you would you vote for that? Listen, that might do a bit of good and I'd support that. But what that is is a bandaid on the gaping wound that these policies have torn right through working people's lives in Montana. I mean, I'm looking at diesel north of six bucks a gallon on the way here to Bozeman where we're holding a food drive for a lot of people who are hurting on the ground tonight.

38:10I am filling up my 1984 van driving across this district. And this is a place where people measure distance in hours, not miles. And you feel that at every level. So whether it's the price of gas or whether it's this endless war that we've been drawn into, we need to stop putting Band-Aids on these problems and invest in the long term to make sure we're building housing. that the people who build it can actually afford, that we're actually building a health care system that benefits patients, maybe even providers and not just these private health insurance corporations that get rich on our backs and then funnel that money right back into our elections like we're seeing here.

38:43When people hear you say that, they think about who's going to pay for that. Are you able to do those things to address housing and health care without raising taxes on the middle class? Absolutely. The fact that we are in$40 trillion of debt, to me as a candidate in my early 30s, I find that to be outrageous because what we're doing is borrowing on our country's future. I don't want to go deeper into debt for any of these things. And something that we're talking about in our civil discourse town halls, one of which we're going to have tomorrow night with a former Republican governor in the state, one of six Republicans endorsing this campaign, is the fact that we need to rebalance our economy and our tax system, our country.

39:23That means asking the richest people in this country to carry their own weight like the rest of us. Because when I was jumping out of planes as a smoke jumper, I paid 36 % of every paycheck, the taxes and all the rest. And I'm happy to do so. But the top 400 earners in this country are paying an effective income tax rate of 3 % to 4%. That's no way to structure a country, no way to structure a tax system. Let's ask the people at the top to carry their own weight so we can pay for these things that we urgently need, like basic health care, housing, making sure that we don't have seniors being forced out of house and home like we got across western Montana right now.

39:56We can still solve these big problems and God, we need to. Well, and one of the issues that you've been focused on, the president's tariffs, you've said I support Montana farmers. I do not support tariffs when they're used as a tool of chaos and corruption. The way they're being used by this administration, what specifically will you do to counter the president's tariff policies? And are there any tariffs that you would actually leave in place. Yeah, I want to be real clear. Tariffs are not bad in themselves. It wasn't so long ago that Democrats, when I was a kid, were the ones talking about tariffs as a way to protect vital industries and good union jobs in this country.

40:30They are bad when they're used, like you said, for chaos and corruption. When you jack those rates up to 140 and down to 30, I will sign on to legislation day one to say that Congress has the power to impose tariffs, not the executive branch. We talked about restoring balance. Well, enumerated powers for the legislative branch, like levying tariffs, the powers of the purse, the power to declare war. These are things that have been abdicated to the president for decades by failed leadership in both parties. If we are going to go to war, if we're going to levy a tariff, well, every member of Congress should have to put their name on the line to say that this is a worthwhile way to protect an industry or to protect national security.

41:06We are not seeing that for members of Congress right now. And that's how we start bringing balance back to the system, protect farmers and ranchers, or protect people's livelihoods who are already struggling. Let me ask you, you've received endorsements from progressives like Senator Bernie Sanders, Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. It doesn't seem like those endorsements are now featured on your campaign website. Do you still welcome their support in this race? Oh, I'm grateful for the both of their support, as I am for the five Republican legislators who are endorsing this campaign, the former Republican governor and chair of the RNC, who we're going to be hosting that town hall with tomorrow evening.

41:43If there's any way out of the hole that our national leaders have been digging for us in both political parties, it's solidarity. It's lifting each other up and talking about the fact that, well, I got so much more in common with, frankly, folks like the Congresswoman and like those five Republican legislators than I do with any member of the U.S. Senate who's worth$200 million. Like one of our senators who just happens to be a corporate executive braiding as a wildland firefighter. the only way out of this hole is coming together as working people, saying we're not going to let them take us out of our power with these millions of corporate PAC dollars that they're spending in these elections, millions of super PAC dollars, and saying that we actually agree on so much more than divides us.

42:23That's what we're doing in this campaign, bringing Republicans and Democrats together. And that's what we'll all do in Congress, bringing the different branches of this party together like we desperately need to when we actually win the House. And just very quickly, there's a big debate within the Democratic Party right now if Democrats win back the House, should they move to try to impeach President Trump? Would you support that? Or do you think that it would backfire as a number of Democrats are warning? Yeah, I'll tell you, I won't be voting for things like that until I know that the votes are actually there to make something happen and actually affect change.

42:54My top priority is passing legislation on things like housing, like labor and unions that improves people's lives on a day to day basis, because when we win back control of the House, and we will, even if we win the Senate as well, there's going to be a divided government. There's going to be a Republican in the White House. And people here in Montana do not have two years to wait. I mean, homelessness has doubled or tripled in every major city in this state in the last decade. About 50 ,000 people are set to lose their health care. We cannot spend our time fighting the problems of the past. We got to actually pass legislation to help people afford a home, to help people stay covered under health care and to make sure that, well, things like Social Security aren't going to have to cut their benefits by 22 percent because of both parties in action.

43:35That's my priority. And that's how we earn people's support to the degree we need if we want to build more power in 2028 and hold seats like we're going to win right here in Western Montana. All right. Sam Forstack, thank you so very much for your time. We really appreciate it. We have also extended the invitation to the Republican running in Montana's first district, Aaron Flint, to come on this show as well. Coming up after the break an update on Pope Leo's health after the Vatican revealed the pontiff has lung cancer. Stay with us on Meet the Press now.

44:13Welcome back. Pope Leo XIV continues to recover following that shocking cancer diagnosis yesterday. In his first statement since his surgery, the pope thanked the public for their prayers. The 71-year-old pontiff was diagnosed with adenocarcinoma after undergoing surgery yesterday to remove the lower lobe of his right lung. NBC News correspondent Anne Thompson has more. Late tonight, the Vatican press office says Pope Leo can celebrated mass today at Jumeli Hospital. Just one more sign of his recovery. His doctors say he is up walking, he is eating, and he underwent a chest X-ray and blood test, and those all came back as expected.

44:54What is not known tonight is whether he will require additional treatment for his lung cancer. The other big question that's hanging out there is how will his recovery affect his planned trip to South America next month? He hopes to go to three countries, Uruguay, Argentina and Peru. And Peru, as you know, is near and dear to his heart. That's where he spent years as a missionary and then a bishop. The Peruvian president tonight said she understands that the pope's recovery will take longer than expected. And that could impact the trip. No word yet from the Vatican. I'm Anne Thompson at Vatican City.

45:31Now back to you. And our thanks to Anne Thompson for that report. We'll be right back with more Amita Press now.

45:42Welcome back. Joining me now is the panel, Tamara Keith, NPR senior political correspondent and co-host of the NPR Politics podcast. Amisha Cross, Democratic strategist and former Obama a campaign advisor and Republican strategist and an NBC News contributor, Matt Gorman. Thanks to all of you for being here. So my colleague, Tom Yamas, is out in Michigan. He just interviewed Abdul El-Sayed, as well as former Congressman Mike Rogers. I want to play a little bit of his interview with Mike Rogers and get everyone's reaction on the other side. Look, I just spoke with Dr. Abdul El-Sayed. He tells me that you are basically a rubber stamp to President Trump.

46:20What do you say to that? Nonsense. I mean, I've called an end to the Iran war, I've called for an end to wrap up these Canadian tariffs. And I have a history in my work in the United States Congress for stepping away when I need to. So when they wanted to bail out the Wall Street, I said no. When they wanted to give loans to auto companies here to make sure we could survive during the really tough years at 08, 09, 010, I said yes. So I'm going to do what's right for Michigan, Michigan first. President Trump asked you to run in this race. He wanted you to be the senator from Michigan. If he asked you to do that, how are you going to stand up to him once you do get elected and make sure you put Michigan first and not MAGA?

47:03Well, I don't even understand the premise of your question. He said he wanted the best candidate to run who could win this state for Republicans. I'm the best candidate that could run that is actually going to win this state for Republicans. No one else has been able to go in and have these conversations with Jewish Democrats. By the way, nobody's covering this. They're covering this like a traditional race. You tell me how you poll half of Jewish Democrats going to take a walk away and vote for us. They may vote for the rest of the Democrat ticket. They're voting for us. Tamara, what do you make of this strategy by Mike Rogers?

47:37Because it's pretty fascinating. He is choosing his moments where he wants to distance himself from President Trump, but also walking that fine line by still embracing him in many respects. Well, he he needs Trump voters still. President Trump performed quite well in Michigan. Those voters are there. He needs them. But he also needs other voters and voters who are not going to be excited about President Trump or his policies. And he's had to push back on a number of them, including tariffs and the war with Iran. He did an ad inside a grocery store, which is not unlike an ad he did the last cycle inside a grocery store, saying that things are too expensive.

48:19But we're seeing a lot of Republican candidates put just enough space. You saw Susan Collins. You've seen many of them saying, oh, well, but this policy I have a problem with. It's pretty fascinating. Matt, do you think it's effective in a purple state like Michigan or for Susan Collins? Look, it's clearly effective. Look, Mike is running probably one of the best campaigns in the country. You always want to make when you're it's your party in control of power during the midterms. You always want to make the campaign into a choice, not a referendum. And I think clearly Al-Said has allowed Mike Rogers in the campaign to do that in spades.

48:52Right. Just even that clip. It appears that Al-Said is harder on on Mike Rogers than he is in the Revolutionary Guard of Iran. So I think that sort of conscience that we go into the last three weeks is going to be very pertinent. And look, if this was Haley Stevens, this race would probably be off the map right now. The fact that it's Al-Sayed and the litany of Stephanopoulos book allows this to be competitive. What about that, Amisha, and how nervous are Democrats about the state of Michigan to remind our viewers it is very hard for Democrats, not impossible, but hard for them to win back the Senate if they can't win Michigan?

49:24No, absolutely. And Michigan has been long been known as the swingiest of swing states. Democrats recognize how important this race is and how close it can, quite frankly, be. That is why they're sending in all of their big names. We've seen the endorsement from Barack Obama. We know that he's going to be on the campaign trail. All of the Democratic stars will align for Abdul El-Sayed. One of the things I think that he has become strongest in is actually not only elevating the importance of what Michigan voters want. They want affordability. They want to be able to have jobs and job access. They want to be able to have a Congress that actually pays attention to the threats of AI.

49:56They want to be able to have health care. These are things that matter to the people in Michigan. While folks on the right, not only Mike Rogers, but also from the White House, would rather talk about, you know, trans people in bathrooms, classrooms, wherever. While they like to point to him being Muslim and continue to push Islamophobic rhetoric. Those aren't things that he is standing on. The business that he stands on is that he is happy about who he is, his family, where he comes from, but also that he too is America. Beyond that, that the things that matter to people the most right now are their kitchen table issues.

50:26And those are things he has plans for. Number one issue for voters. I want to talk about another race unfolding in Georgia. Big debate last night. I want to play a little bit of what John Ossoff had to say when he was asked about whether he had presidential ambitions. Take a look. So will you pledge right now tonight to serve your full six year term if you win? Yes, I will. I have zero interest in running for president. I'm not running for president. are running for reelection to the Senate. Tim, his opponent, Mike Collins, very quickly said, no, he's running for president. So he did not buy that.

50:59Do you think Georgia voters are going to buy that? How do you think they're going to see that exchange? I mean, Ossoff is not the only prominent Democrat doing this dance right now. Oh, no, I'm very interested in the race that I'm running in right now. The one thing I will say about Ossoff is that he is known for constituent services of like doing the unglamorous hard work of being a senator. So maybe he actually likes being a senator. But certainly, Collins is trying to make hay of everything he can. Amisha, how do you see this part of the race playing out? Georgia, Democrats are feeling very confident.

51:36Republicans acknowledge Georgia's going to be a tough race for them to win. But that decision about whether he wants to run for president, depending on who wins the gubernatorial race. If the Republican wins, that Republican would have to appoint his replacement if he were to run for president. No, absolutely. And I'm going to take Ossoff at his word. Anybody who's running for is in the Senate, obviously has political ambitions beyond the Senate. Current senators in the U.S. Senate right now dream of being president. That's not exactly new. But he is running for U.S. Senate from the great state of Georgia.

52:03He is somebody who has defied history in the past, and he's somebody who will continue to do so. The moment that the current sitting governor of Georgia decided he was going to step out of this race, it was going to be John Ossoff as the next U.S. senator who's already there in his own spot yet again. Matt, how do you see this question that, frankly, a lot of candidates are getting, Wes Morris getting? It reminds me of when Tim Russert asked Barack Obama in 2006. Barack Obama had almost the exact answer verbatim. Then he changed his mind, as I recall. Yes, well, funny how that works, right? But one of the things actually we're not talking about is he didn't want to be the only probably presidential candidate from the state of Georgia.

52:36Raphael Warnock is looking very seriously at it and would obviously have a natural adherence to the fact that, look, the African-American vote is the backbone of the Democratic primary vote. So that is a huge part of the Democratic vote. It would also be a huge loss for the state of Georgia to lose either of them. And I say that because it's a huge difference. And I worked on Barack Obama's campaign. Both Senate seats in Illinois are solidly blue. That is not the case for Georgia. So it would be extremely competitive. You run the risk of losing the democratically held seat if one or both of them decided that this was going to pass.

53:08The only similarity between John Awesome and Barack Obama is the fact I want to look at funding for president. Well, we'll see how it plays out, guys. Great conversation. Thank you so much, Tamara, Misha and Matt. We are back tomorrow with more Meet the Press Now and a reminder to watch more of Tom's reporting from Michigan straight ahead on Nightly News and Top Story. There's much more ahead on NBC News Now.

53:46Real talent is defined by what people can do, not where they learn to do it. So by stopping at the education section of a resume, you might throw away the perfect hire. Skills First Hiring helps you see talent others miss, like more than 70 million stars, skilled through alternative routes. Let their story unfold and gain a competitive advantage because hiring managers who start with skills are 60 % more likely to find a successful hire. Hire skills first. Learn why at tearthepaperceiling.org. Brought to you by Opportunity at Work and the Ad Council.