Meet the Press NOW — October 29

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1:14Welcome to Meet the Press Now. I'm Kristen Welker. There are just five days to go until Election Day, and all eyes right now are on Alaska, where the state's pivotal Senate race has been roiled by allegations of foul play as tensions and rhetoric are heating up all across the country in the closing days of the midterm campaign. In the Alaska Senate battle, President Trump and Republicans are seizing on a New York Times report, citing interviews, text messages, and documents that Mary Peltola's campaign, along with the Senate Democrats' campaign arm, worked to find as many people named Dan Sullivan in Alaska as they could in order to peel off votes from incumbent Republican Senator Dan Sullivan.

1:56The Peltola campaign and the DSCC have denied having any involvement with any Dan Sullivan campaign. Still, Republicans say they are livid, demanding criminal investigations, even prosecutions, although legal experts say such a move by the campaign, while appearing unethical or deceptive, could have been done legally. Republican Senator Dan Sullivan slammed Peltola in the wake of the New York Times report, and Peltola dismissed it as a distraction. Mary Peltola, her campaign team, senior DSCC Democrats, had a scheme, a secret scheme, to trick Alaskan voters. And then, Sean, they'd been lying for almost a year about it.

2:40And now they're caught. I have a much stronger record. We're running. We have a vision for Alaskans that the Alaskan people want. And when they recognize that, they're like, Shoot, I guess we got to cheat. He's run a campaign about supposed corruption. She's the corrupt one working with D.C. insiders to trick Alaskans. This is just another distraction. It's another diversion. Every day, it's some new, you know, look over here moment. Not Dan Sullivan, registered Republican incumbent, voted for this war in Iran 14 times. This is not somebody who's working in our best interest. And anybody who's working in our best interest isn't going to talk about the nonsense.

3:26This is all stuff to sell newspapers. This is all stuff to get subscriptions. Nobody at The New York Times cares about affordability in Alaska. The Republican governor of Alaska has now ordered an investigation into the Beltola campaign. House Oversight Chair Republican James Comer is demanding testimony from Democratic operatives and Peltola's former campaign manager, who was quoted in the Times story and later retracted her statements. And the Justice Department says it is expanding its probe tied to a lawsuit over the race, which it filed before the report was published. Campaigning in Ohio last night, the president called for Peltola to be criminally prosecuted.

4:11Take a look. This is voter fraud at the highest level and the Democrat candidate who was involved in the scheme, Mary Peltola, who said she didn't know anything about it in court. She should be removed from the ballot and prosecuted. And so should the fake Dan Sullivan. Do you agree with the president that she should be Mary Peltola should be criminally prosecuted? Well, I think we should certainly look into whether she committed election fraud. She is trying to steal a Senate seat from the voters of Alaska, and it's disgraceful. So whether it's criminal or not, she certainly has committed, I think, a great moral failing and hopefully the voters of Alaska punish her.

4:53We should note Peltola herself has not testified to anything in court, but in court filings, her campaign did deny allegations that Dan J. Sullivan got into the race to draw votes away from the incumbent Dan Sullivan. Now, this all comes after a court ruled that Dan J. Sullivan legally qualified for the ballot after coming in third in the state's top four primary. He's on the ballot as Daniel J. Sullivan, while Senator Sullivan is on the ballot as Dan S. Sullivan. And next to his name, it's noted that he's a registered Republican and the incumbent. Joining me now to start us off, NBC News White House correspondent Monica Alba, NBC News Chief Capitol Hill correspondent Ryan Nobles, and former election official in Maricopa County and now an NBC News contributor, Stephen Richer.

5:40Thanks to all of you for being here. Monica, let me start with you. So you just heard the president there on the trail in South Carolina. We're going to hear more from him undoubtedly as he attends some tele-rallies. But boy, he was sharply focused on Alaska last night in that rally. Absolutely, Kristen. I think he will continue to be. I think at rallies anywhere that are not necessarily related to this issue in Alaska, the president will take every opportunity to talk about it. Every chance he gets with reporters, he will likely be talking about it, too, and repeating what he had to say today when he was on his way to South Carolina.

6:18Let's play that. If the Democrats win, if Mary Patola wins, should Republicans refuse to seat her come January? Well, you're going to have to see what happens. It's hard to believe that she can't even be allowed to run. Frankly, I don't know how you could allow somebody like that to run. But if they don't correct this, that would be certainly a dishonest election. And, Kristen, the president has been asked repeatedly over the last couple of weeks if he will accept the outcome of Tuesday's election results. And he has said yes, only if these are honest elections. And when he was asked today to define what an honest election is, he cited the situation in Alaska and said unless that is somehow taken care of, that that cannot be, in his view, potentially considered a, quote, honest election.

7:06So that is really significant. And here at the White House, we know behind the scenes that he has been making calls on this. And we know it's happening while the Justice Department is intensifying its larger potential criminal probe into all of this. So this has certainly captured the attention of the president, and I think he's only going to be talking about it more in the days to come. Well, and Monica, this plays right into President Trump's messaging that we've heard from him for such a long time. He's argued that Democrats resort to unethical behavior, tricks, rigging, as he's called it. How does this incident in Alaska fit into what has already been a long held narrative of President Trump?

7:52Yes, and certainly those baseless claims of widespread voter fraud. And so when you just add to it the sort of sowing of doubt that the president has done on everything from mail in ballots through this midterm cycle to other issues. and now what we're seeing play out here in Alaska, it only kind of adds gasoline to that already growing fire. And we do know, again, behind the scenes here, that the president has basically been looking at this as something that he wants to amplify, according to senior White House officials, that he's very engaged in and that he wants to see if something can potentially go beyond the scope of what's already happening again at the DOJ to look into this.

8:34But depending on what happens with this race on Tuesday, I think it's very fair to expect that the president could continue to call into doubt the outcome of that race in particular, but he could extend it to others where he doesn't like the outcome potentially, Kristen. And Monica, before I let you go, you got an update on the president's travel plans. What are you hearing about that, Mom? Yeah, this is pretty telling as well. It's a significant change. The White House had announced he was going to be going to Kansas for a rally on Saturday. That is now canceled. He is supposed to be going to Iowa for a rally on Sunday.

9:14We're told by a White House official no decision has been made yet on whether that's going to be scrapped as well. Tomorrow's trip to Daytona Beach, Florida, we're told, is still on. And in its place, the fact that he's not going to Kansas anymore and maybe changing some of these other scheduling and rally items, Kristen, is the fact that he is going to now be doing 20 or so tele-rallies, because in the words of one White House official, that's more of a shotgun approach to hit more of these competitive races. But it is just hard to overstate what a shift in strategy this is. It's notable, it's a change, and it's a little bit unclear if it is because they are seeing something internally that's telling them they don't want to be going to some of these specific places or whether the president is feeling the intensity of being on the trail for as long as he has been a combination of those things or more that we're working on reporting out.

10:03Well, I know you're working your sources on all of it. Monica Alva, thanks so much for starting us off. Ryan Nobles, let me turn to you. So let's talk about Alaska. Let's put aside the questions of legality for a moment. How do you think this is going to play with voters. Could the Peltola campaign be seen as unethical? Could that cost her? So I think we need to put this in the context of the vote in Alaska, right? There's only probably going to be somewhere in the range of 300 to 400 ,000 voters that cast a ballot in Alaska. For a statewide race, that's extraordinarily small. I mean, for instance, the state of Texas is probably quadruple, if not more, of that number.

10:41So 80 ,000 people have already cast a ballot, about 20 % of the vote. But in a race like this, that all the polls show is basically 50-50, even a small number of votes, it could be anywhere between 3 ,000 to 5 ,000 votes could decide this race. And I have to imagine there could be somewhere in the range of 3 ,000 to 5 ,000 voters that read this New York Times report and were upset by it. And perhaps that prevents them from voting for Mary Peltola. The only caveat I'd offer to that is that this story has been in ether for a long time in Alaska. It's new to much of the national audience, but we've been tracking it since Dan J.

11:18Sullivan first showed up on the ballot. Dan S. Sullivan, the current senator, has been complaining about it for a long time, and they've been accusing Democrats of being behind it from the very beginning. So this is something that Alaska voters have known about for some time. Ryan, let's zoom out a little bit. There are other instances of political parties, political campaigns trying to have an influence over who shows up on the ballot to improve their own chances. Yeah, we call it ballot stacking. And basically what the practice is, is when you go and you recruit a minor candidate and convince them to get on the ballot, but with the idea of siphoning votes away from your opponent, who's another major candidate.

11:57It's done a lot in Alaska, in particular for two reasons. One, ballot access there is a relatively low bar to cross. It's easy to get people on the ballot in Alaska. And also they run an open primary, meaning that all every single party runs together in the primary and the top four candidates make it to the general election. And so it's not uncommon for both Republicans and Democrats to go out. And for instance, the Republicans might recruit a Green Party candidate to run to the left of the Democrat to try and pull votes away. And what the Alaska Supreme Court basically said is that there's nothing illegal about this.

12:28Dan J. Sullivan did all the right things and filed all the right paperwork to get on the ballot. We cannot take him off just because you believe there's some sort of conspiracy to put him on. Going back to the politics of all of this, the New York Times report does expose some of the communications between Democratic operatives. Could this potentially be seen as them looking down on the Alaska electorate, patronizing them, thinking that they can fool them? So the two biggest problems the Peltola campaign have leading up to Tuesday, there could be other problems that occur after Tuesday if the Justice Department or there's some sort of legal challenge to the results, is that voters, A, are going to view the Paltola campaign and Democrats of lying to them, telling them that they do not see what is very clear with their own eyes, that they were behind this and that they recruited Dan J.

13:18Sullivan to run. And then the other part is what you bring up, which is detailed in the New York Times report, is that they thought Alaska voters would be dumb enough to fall for this. And they actually talk about having focus groups where they brought in folks and showed them the ballot. And in some instances, they would pick the other Dan J. Sullivan. And so, Dan S. Sullivan, the current senator, is already playing into that, telling people in a number of interviews today, they don't think you're smart enough to figure this out. They think you're dumb. And I do think that that could be something that resonates with Alaska voters.

13:50All right. Well, we're going to watch it very closely. Hopefully Alaska, not the fastest counting state, so we likely won't have results. And we might be waiting on them. And it could be the difference between who controls the Senate. It might take a week or two until we figure that out. It could all come down to Alaska. All right. Ryan Nobles, thank you so much. Really appreciate it. Stephen Richer, let me turn to you. Let's talk about the various legal scenarios. What could potentially be the biggest legal issue if there is one here? I'm not sure that there is a big one because I think the talk about decertifying the election predicated on the results of the election, but ignoring the fact that the Alaska Supreme Court has already ruled on this and has said the other Dan Sullivan can be on the ballot and in fact was on the primary ballot.

14:41So I don't think that's a big thing. I think the only thing that really fundamentally changes the game is if the Justice Department or state authorities find out that there was some instance of bribery from the Kaltola campaign to this other Dan Sullivan saying, hey, here's 50 ,000 bucks. We'd love for you to get in. Now, we have no reason to believe that is the case. So is this distasteful? Maybe. That's up to Alaskans. Is this common? Yeah, this type of thing is common. Is it unlawful? Well, so far, we don't have proof of that. Well, let me ask you, because in response to the DOJ lawsuit that the second Dan Sullivan's campaign was meant to confuse voters and benefit Peltola, the Peltola campaign said it didn't know anything about that.

15:30Could that potentially open up legal consequences given this New York Times report? No, because if the crime, the alleged crime is deceiving voters or not being 100 percent forthcoming, well, then I've got a whole bunch of prosecutions for politicians that are merited because that's just part of the game a little bit, as distasteful as that may be. And again, where this has been prosecuted in the past, as it was in 2020 in the state of Florida with a very similar name incident, it has been because there has been bribery and exchange of money involved. If she is called to testify about this matter, if her campaign officials are, could that open them up to potential legal jeopardy?

16:27You have to tell the truth when you're under oath. That's certainly so. And so I can't imagine that anyone will recommend for her to do otherwise. But at this point, I think that the election is going to proceed. I think that Alaskans are going to have to decide whether or not this is meaningful to them. And I think that there will be a lot of noise. But I'm going to guess that at the end of the day, whether Pultola wins or whether Sullivan wins, that person will be certified and that person will be sitting in the United States Senate come January of 2027. All right, Stephen Richer, thank you so very much.

17:03We really appreciate your analysis of this ongoing story that we have been following. Thank you. And before we go to break, we do want to note some positive economic news that we got today. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reports the economy grew at a 3.4 percent pace in the third quarter, which includes July, August and September. That's a faster than expected pace. President Trump today touted those numbers while baselessly accusing the Federal Reserve of playing politics in its decision yesterday not to cut interest rates. The numbers came out way, way, way above expectation. Oh, you haven't seen anything yet.

17:43And that's despite the fact that they don't want to cut, you know, the politicians that are on the board, Federal Reserve. They hate like hell to cut the interest rates because that would be good for me. Now, as a reminder, the Federal Reserve's current chairman was picked by the president and voted in favor of yesterday's decision to hold rates steady. We also learned today that consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of economic output, grew at a healthy 3.8 percent rate during the third quarter. That's the same pace as the previous three-month period. Coming up, we'll dig deeper into the revelations and allegations rocking the Alaska Senate race as the rhetoric on the campaign trail takes a dark turn.

18:26The panel is next. Plus, we're breaking down everything at stake next Tuesday and how the results could echo into 2028 as both parties grapple with major questions about their future. Stay with us. You're watching Meet the Press Now.

18:48Welcome back. It's not just Alaska, where, as we noted, President Trump is calling for the Democratic Senate candidate to be criminally prosecuted. prosecuted. Rhetoric all over the campaign trail is taking a notably darker turn in these closing days, with some candidates and campaign surrogates launching incendiary and in some cases baseless attacks against their opponents, including President Trump, who today used a slur for transgender people when speaking about Democratic Senate candidate Annie Andrews, who's not transgender. But Darlene Graham has devoted her entire life to the people of this state, And now she's running to save you from a radical left lunatic named Tranny Annie Andrews.

19:29She's a radical left person running against a person that is apple pie. He pushes drag shows for kids. So he funds drag kids for shows. Well, is that grooming? No. Yeah, he's probably as grooming. This is a guy that says he's middle of the road, but he's actually the most radical liberal Democrat to ever make it through a set up primary. God forbid El Saeed were to win. Nothing would prevent Chuck Schumer from putting El Saeed on the Senate Intelligence Committee. The Intelligence Committee has access to the most sensitive secrets in our government. And the odds are unacceptably high that Americans would die as a result.

20:19Meanwhile, yesterday in Georgia, Democratic Senator John Ossoff riled up his supporters, vowing to investigate the president and what Senator Ossoff called the Mar-a-Lago mafia, leading to chants of lock them up from the crowd. Never before has so little effort been made to cover up so much corruption. And here's the bottom line. If you're involved in any of this, next year you'll be raising your right hand and swearing to tell the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth. So help you God in front of the United States Congress. This message comes from Wise Business, the only account your business needs to scale globally.

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22:40I hadn't seen the video. I just read about it. Joining me now is the panel of political journalist Molly Ball, Chuck Rocha, founder of Solidarity Strategies and a senior advisor to the Tallarico campaign, and Sarah Chamberlain, president and CEO of the Republican Main Street Partnership. Thanks to all of you for being here. Molly, I have to start with you because you're teeing us up for Halloween as well with these incredible glasses that you are wearing. Let's start right there and talk about some of the language and the rhetoric that we're hearing this election cycle. It's pretty notable, including coming from a John Ossoff.

23:16We don't usually hear him go that far. Well, and he was not the ones chanting, lock them up, right? And this anti-corruption argument is one that he has been making throughout the campaign. I think it has been the main theme of the campaign, and we've seen it become more prominent in more and more Democratic campaigns over the course of this election cycle, as polls have shown that it is something that voters are more and more concerned about. But speaking of the glasses, you know, we often call the end of an election silly season. And it really is spooky season when you get this close to the election because, you know, it's desperation time.

23:48It's crunch time. Campaigns are throwing absolutely anything at the wall, just frantically trying to get people to commit. But as they know and as we know, most of the result is baked in at this point. There is nothing they can do except wait until Wednesday and see how it all goes. Well, Sarah, let's stay on Molly's glasses and spooky season because that is what we're seeing in some of these comments. You heard it there. Ted Cruz, you've heard it with President Trump talking about Abdul El-Sayed and some other candidates. Is it an effective closing strategy for voters who say their top line issue is the economy?

24:26Well, it certainly is for some of the voters. The mega base loves this. But what we have found in our focus grouping is it's not. So we have switched our millions of dollars to end on a positive note and talk about how great the members are and the great legislation that they've done. And our focus grouping, that's actually American people are like, we're tired of the chaos. And I think the Vivek ad kind of put them in a new place. So we chose to flip everything and go positive. So we're hoping that's going to be the right strategy. So what do you make of what we're hearing, Chuck, and particularly coming from a John Ossoff who has potential designs on a presidential run?

25:03Look, you know, I'm a grizzled old veteran. We were just talking out there in the green room how I don't like to work for many candidates because I've gotten too old to put up with candidates. But this is what happens with candidates at the end. We're tired. Folks have been doing this for a long time. And you see all the worst of what everybody has inside of them, which is anxiety and fear. And let's talk about the Ossoff thing, is that there's people out there in the party who are demanding accountability. I don't mean you have to throw everybody in jail. I'm not saying that. I'm just saying they just want accountability in what they've been seeing.

25:30And on top of that, their lives are getting more expensive while they see other people getting very rich. They see ballrooms going up. They see tariffs. They see a war. They see gasoline prices every day. And that's why you see this perfect storm that we talk about in this off year. All right, we're getting a new look at the state of play compliments of CNN. Let's put up this new polling that they did state by state on some of the biggest races that we are tracking. Abdullah Al-Sayed, according to this polling, up seven. James Tallarico up six. Hamilton in Kansas in a red state. Kansas up four.

26:04And Troy Jackson up four in Maine, running against veteran Susan Collins. Molly Ball, what do you make of these numbers? When I say veteran, I should clarify that, meaning she's a veteran campaigner and closer. She's no stranger to a tough fight, being a couple points behind in the polls as she approaches Election Day and then pulling out a win. That's right. I mean, but this stage in her last campaign, she was down by double digits in a lot of the polls and came back to win. So I think there's a lot of people on both sides of the aisle that don't put a lot of stock in the numbers out of Maine just because of that scar tissue.

26:39That being said, if you had told either party that Kansas and Maine would be polling in the same place at this point a week out from the election, they would have told you something. weird was going on, right? I mean, it is, and that's what happens in a wave year. In a wave year, there are races that come on the map that have no right being on the map. They have no right being swing districts. They have no right being swing states. There are states that, you know, Kansas hasn't elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since 1932. So these are, this is the hundred-year flood of election cycles, and crazy things start to happen when that's the case.

27:13Chuck, when you look at those numbers, do you really think Kansas is in play? Do you think you do think Texas is in play. Right. It's because of everything lines up. And we've all worked in lots of campaigns and you'll get a couple of good things lining up for you may have a bad candidate. You may have some war going on. You may have something locally in Texas with data centers, whatever it is. But you have everything happening at the same time. And Democrats are getting the benefit of that as the Democrat here. And because the Democrats have everything figured out, the benefit for the Democrats are now saying everything is broken and we're not in charge.

27:43And that sometimes in a wave year is enough to see what you're seeing. And that's the only reason Kansas is still on the table. Yeah. Sarah, what do you make of those numbers? And part of what I think we've been discussing throughout the course of this campaign cycle is the quality of the candidate. And that's being put to the test as well in some of these states. It is. And for all disclosure, Senator Marshall is a member of Main Street. I know him well. Maybe he hasn't run the best campaign. However, the Democrats have a very good, strong candidate against him. And I think you're seeing that.

28:15And it's just, you're right. It's just lining up. He's a pastor. He's a pastor. And he has no baggage because we opt him. There's no baggage at all on him. We looked for it. We looked for it. We all looked. We looked at every one of them, right. But this is common practice. It is common practice. But it's just the fuel prices. I mean, you're right. People aren't voting. If Roger loses, Senator loses, it's not going to be a vote for the Democrats. It's going to be a vote against the Republicans. Molly, let's go back to Alaska speaking of baggage, because Mary Peltola now has new baggage as she heads into this homestretch towards Election Day.

28:47This extraordinary New York Times report, which effectively exposed the fact that members of her campaign actively sought to find another Dan Sullivan. This is also a common campaign practice, by the way, something that happens in politics. This is unique, though, because you're dealing with someone who has the same exact name. You're dealing with Alaska's ranked choice voting system, which sort of makes it easier to actually get on the ballot. How do you think it's going to play with voters in these closing days? I think it's a real question. And, you know, given the dynamics that we're all talking about and how strongly most of these voters want to send a message to Washington, it may not matter.

29:28You're right. You know, these dirty tricks do happen, but people don't like them. And I don't think we should pretend that this is just OK. Yeah. But, you know, Mary Peltola has also been up by healthy margins in most of the public polling. Alaska is a hard state to poll. But but if if what voters want is to send a message to Washington, they may not be too concerned, even though, you know, they're, you know, members, ex-members of her campaign staff are on the record saying that she knew this was going on and then lied about it. But it's just a question of do voters actually, does that give them pause?

30:02Or are they just so eager to send a message to Washington that that does not enter into the calculation? I was thinking about this and thinking about we mentioned the Vivek Ramaswamy ad. And I think at the end, we all look for October surprises. Us who are holding oppo sometimes wait to dump it until 30 days out and those kind of things. I think when you start, you'll have effect. All of this has some effect. But in the modern technology where we're streaming all day long and looking at this, this is going back to your Tallarico point. The reason that he is not behind is he built a long time on the air by himself without any Republicans beating him up, telling a story about who he was.

30:35So when it got to the end, it was untouchable. And he'll have some slippage, but he won't have his best because he's being able to tell a story. That's also how Donald Trump went because he was outside of the system. And when we attacked him, people already liked him, quote unquote. Right. How do you see it playing out there? Do you think that this could cost Peltola the race and secure it for the incumbent dancing? I think the big mistake she made is she has her fingerprints on this. I mean, they do this. We all know this. But she could have gotten outside group to recruit him instead of her own people.

31:06I think this will cost her the race, which could cost the Democrats the Senate. It could come down to Alaska. Molly, just finally, we've seen the clash of the two presidents, President Trump, former President Obama out on the campaign trail going back and forth about everything from White House renovations to the Cheesecake Factory. Do you think they are effective messengers at closing these campaigns? Yeah, I mean, in some larger cosmic sense, the entire last 12 years of American politics have been a titanic struggle between Donald Trump and Barack Obama. That's right. Right. It was Donald Trump peddling birtherism and seeking to discredit Obama and being ridiculed by Obama at the 2012 White House Correspondents Dinner that led to him, you know, winning the presidency in 2016, his his loathing of Obama that drove so much of his policymaking going back to, you know, his first term on winding the Iran deal, that sort of thing.

32:03There's clearly a sort of psychic struggle between these two men that is playing out among the American public. And that's still where we are today in these midterm. I'll let you both have a thought on that, Chuck. You know, the biggest part of this election will be what happens the day after, because both parties want to figure out how they separate themselves, some from Donald Trump and us looking for a leader for the Democratic Party. That's going to play out over a long period of time after this election's over. Who's the real vision for their party and who's the real vision for my party? Yeah.

32:32Sarah, how do you see it playing out? I think that this is very personal. I agree with you. And I think Obama will win in the end because they will get the House. So I think he's going to run a victory lap on that. And I think he then will have a huge input as to who the next Democrat at barriers. Okay. Well, it was a great conversation and we couldn't have a better example of the spooky season in politics. Thank you for bringing your classes along, Molly, Chuck, and Sarah. Really appreciate it. Remember, you can dive deeper into the election with access to polling, early vote data, expert analysis, and more exclusive content, all with an NBC News subscription.

33:09Just scan the QR code on your screen now or visit NBCNews.com slash subscribe. We'll be back with more Meet the Press now.

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34:57Welcome back. Election Day is now just five days away, but there's much more at stake than just control of Congress for both parties. NBC News senior national political reporter Sahil Kapoor joins me now from the big board. So, Syle, take us through next Tuesday and what you'll be watching for as each party tries to win back control of Congress in a number of governor's races. Hey, Kristen, with five days to go, Tuesday's election is going to shape so much more than just the next two years of governing. It's also going to shape how the two parties see their political future heading into 2028 in the twilight of Donald Trump's presidency as they think about their future.

35:31So I've got my eyes on a few races that are going to have outsized impact on that debate. I can think of no race with a bigger impact to the future of the Democratic Party than Michigan. where the movement progressive, Abdul al-Sayed, running on a platform of Medicare for All, is trying to win this quintessential battleground state. If he can win here, it's going to get a lot of progressives excited about potentially putting one of their own in 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. And that's going to have an impact in the presidential debates in 2028. Now, this is also going to have, the center-left is also going to have a say in this.

36:02They're going to point to Roy Cooper, who's expected, who's favored to defeat Michael Whatley, they're going to say it's his brand of politics. Center left, no culture wars, which is ultimately the way to win. Of course, Republicans are going to have to decide their own future as well. And I think the biggest question after 2026 is what kind of influence Donald Trump is going to have on his parties. He's still going to be kingmaker. And on that one, I'm looking right at Texas because Ken Paxton faces a real danger of becoming the first Republican in four decades to lose a Texas Senate race. He's trailing in some recent polls to James Tallarico.

36:33And if he loses, a lot of Republican donors and activists are going to be looking at Trump and say, you did this. The reason is John Cornyn was all set to be the nominee, and he has dominated statewide races in Texas, is what he did in 2020, until Trump came along and said, no, it should be Ken Paxton. This is a very important test of Trump's own endorsement powers and whether it can carry. Similarly, South Carolina, Darlene Graham is the nominee because Trump wanted her to be. If she hangs on, it means his endorsement carries. If she fails and loses South Carolina, a state this read to Annie Andrews, it's going to have some Republicans wondering whether the MAGA movement has run its course and whether it's time to move in a different direction.

37:09Now, speaking of the MAGA movement, there's also a governor's race happening in Ohio, the home state of Vice President J.D. Vance, who has tied himself closely to Vivek Ramaswamy. He's trailing Amy Acton, and some recent polls faces a real danger of losing. What's it going to say about J.D. Vance if he can't help Vivek Ramaswamy get over the top? There's also an important Senate race going on in Ohio, where the appointed Senator John Houston, who replaced J.D. Vance in the Senate, faces the challenge from Sherrod Brown. This is going to be an important test of blue-collar voters who tilted red 2016 and beyond, helped paint Ohio into a red state.

37:42One big question here, if Republicans can't hang on and if they get swept out in Ohio, are blue-collar voters moving away? And is the MAGA coalition simply not transferable in an era after Trump? Yeah, it's a great question, Sahil. And to watch that relationship between the Ohio gubernatorial and Senate race, that is undoubtedly going to be one of our biggest storylines on Tuesday night. All right. Tuesday, though, a lot of implications for who's going to control Congress, but also about the next presidential race in 2028, Sahil. What are you watching there? Yeah, absolutely. I'll give you two candidates who are on the ballot who have gotten some presidential hype.

38:18First off, John Ossoff, who's favored in the polls to defeat Mike Collins. Georgia is typically decided by very, very narrow margins. You see this here. If the polls are right and he runs up the score to seven, eight nine points. It's going to get a lot of Democrats very interested to see what he could do at the top of the ticket. And then Pennsylvania governor Josh Shapiro running for re-election, expected to win again. But once again, if he can run up the score in this bellwether battleground state where every winner of Pennsylvania has become president in elections for the last 20 years, it could also boost his potential presidential aspirations.

38:49Kristen. All right. Sahil, thank you so very much. We really appreciate it. All right. Coming up after the break. The battle over one of the most evenly divided House districts in America. We'll speak with one of the candidates next. You're watching Meet the Press now. You don't want to miss this conversation.

39:12Welcome back. Turning now to one of the most competitive House races this election, one which could be key to determining control of Congress. Democrat Joanna Mendoza, a former Marine, is trying to unseat incumbent Republican Congressman Juan Siskamani, who sits on the powerful Appropriations Committee in a neck and neck race for Arizona's sixth congressional district. The district is one of the most evenly divided in the entire country. President Trump won it by less than a point in 2024, and former President Biden won it by just a third of a point in 2020. Last week, the Cook Political Report moved the race from toss-up to lean Democrat.

39:51But Congressman Siskimani has been able to fend off Democratic challengers in tight races before. Joining me now is Joanna Mendoza, the Democratic candidate for Arizona's 6th Congressional District. Thanks so much for joining me in this homestretch. Thanks so much, Kristen. It's an honor to be here. It's an honor to have you. And here we are, five days to go. It's coming down to the wire. Talk to me about your strategy for flipping this seat back to blue.

40:21JoAnna Mendoza: Well, really, there's no secret sauce. It's about showing up in communities where Mr. Siskamani refuses to show up. I mean, he's held no town halls. He's not in community. We have gone all throughout the district. I will tell you, Kristen, that we have been campaigning for 20 months now, and there's not a corner of this district that we have not gone to. And what we're hearing from folks is that they are just really fed up with the inaction of government right now. And they're really struggling and suffering costs. You know, the Medicaid cuts, the snap cuts, I mean, the price of gas. Folks just can't make ends meet.

41:02JoAnna Mendoza: And that is the top thing that we hear from folks all across the district. So it's really about showing up, listening. And, you know, people want to know that you care about them. And as an elected official, that is your job. You need to show up in the communities. You need to be there listening to their concerns and and work to make things better. Let me ask you about what Congressman Siskimani is saying on the trail. He's called you an extremist with dangerous socialist ideas. You instead have touted what you say will be a bipartisan compromise and common sense approach to politics. What's your reaction to what you've heard from your challenger?

41:46And where do you differ from progressives?

41:49JoAnna Mendoza: Well, listen, I don't respond to lies. And, you know, he's talking about those things because he doesn't want to talk about the vote that he took, you know, for H.R. 1. That vote has impacted food assistance for about 500 ,000 people here in the state of Arizona. Medicaid cuts are now on the verge of impacting probably over 100 ,000 people in this district alone. And then additionally, I mean, you have the price of gas. You know, folks who live in rural communities are penalized even more because they have to go into town to drop their kids off at school, you know, to go to the doctor, to run errands.

42:25JoAnna Mendoza: And, you know, I will say that he is focused on all of these attacks and these lies because they don't want to talk about the damage that they have done to working families, not only in this district, but across America. So we are remaining laser focused on the things that matter to folks because that's what they want us to focus on. Not all of these lies and culture war. We need to stop all that. I mean, people are sick and tired of their government not working for them. And we need elected leaders who are going to put people first, servant leadership. And that is something that, you know, I learned from my time in the Marine Corps is that when you have the privilege of leading people, you have a responsibility to make sure they're taken care of.

43:09JoAnna Mendoza: They eat first. They get medical care first. They get everything they need to accomplish the mission. And right now, Mr. Siskamani hasn't done that. Let me ask you, because a big debate the Democrats are having right now if they take back the House is whether to impeach President Trump for a third time. You've actually said you don't think impeachment works. You don't think it's worked in the past. You think Democrats should be focused on other things. But let me just ask you this question. If the House were to take action, would you vote to impeach President Trump? Well, look, I don't I you know, I don't want to prematurely answer this question.

43:46JoAnna Mendoza: I think that that is not where Democrats should be focused. People want to make sure that whoever takes control of the House and, you know, Democrats are poised to do that, is that they're addressing the cost, that they're bringing down costs for working families because they're suffering right now. They have to make tough decisions about whether or not they're going to pay for food or utilities or rent. We need to make sure that we're reinstating ACA subsidies for folks who, you know, get their care on the marketplace, reinstate food assistance and Medicaid cuts to make sure that people can actually survive.

44:20JoAnna Mendoza: And I just don't think that an impeachment is the right focus right now. People want government to work for them. And that's what I think that the House Democrats should be doing. Congressman Ro Khanna has told me it should be on the table. He says it's not about President Trump, but about standing up for the Constitution. Would you rule out supporting an impeachment? Look, I wouldn't rule it out. I mean, everything is on the table right now. What I will say, though, as someone who served this country for 20 years, served in Iraq and Afghanistan, I know what it's like to sacrifice and know what it's like to serve.

44:56JoAnna Mendoza: I took an oath to this country, to the Constitution to protect the homeland against enemies, all foreign and domestic. And so, yes, of course, we need to make sure that those who are violating the Constitution and the rule of law are held accountable. But we also need to make sure that we're bringing relief to the American people because they desperately need their government to do that right now. If Democrats take back the House, if you do, in fact, win, your first vote will be to choose a leader. Or will you vote for Hakeem Jeffries as speaker if you're elected and if Democrats win the House?

45:32JoAnna Mendoza: Well, you know, right now, Kristen, we're focused on winning this election. We have five days, as you mentioned, at the, you know, at the top of this call. And we're really focused on making sure that every voter knows they have a choice. You know, information about where to drop off their ballots, voter protection hotline. And that is the focus right now. And, you know, I'll be happy to come back on later to answer that question. But right now, I need to get across the finish line. Yeah, well, you are invited to come back if you win and fill out the details of that answer. Let me talk to you about immigration.

46:08You have said you're campaigning to strengthen the border. What specifically does that look like? What would your first action be to try to strengthen the border?

46:17JoAnna Mendoza: Yeah, well, I mean, I am very interested in serving on the committee, the Department of Homeland Security Committee, because both parties have kicked the can down the road here. I mean, you know, they go down to the border, they take pictures and then nothing ever gets done. We have cartels who are recruiting our kids to do criminal activities, to do illegal things for them. And that cannot happen. And so as a mom and as a Marine, you know, national security and securing the homeland are absolutely a top priority. And we can start with doing an audit and assessment of the current security, you know, the current security and technology equipment that we have in place.

46:55JoAnna Mendoza: I was down in Cochise County talking to the sheriff down there and his team, and he shared with me that they are now having to take on the responsibility of securing the border because they have not received a single dime from the federal government. So we need to make sure that our local law enforcement, you know, entities are able to protect not only our communities, but in some cases where they need to, you know, pick up the baton and protect the border, that they have the resources to do that. And so, you know, we can't leave out border or, as you were, ports of entry. That's going to be extremely important as well to make sure that fentanyl is not coming over.

47:35We only have about a minute left. I do want to ask you about the Latino vote, which is critical in your district. NBC News and Telemundo recently conducted a poll amongst Latino voters that shows them swinging away from President Trump, from Republicans, but they don't have a very positive view of Democrats either. How do you win over Latino voters in these final days?

47:57JoAnna Mendoza: by showing up. I mean, there's no secret sauce. You show up, you ask questions. You know, I've even gone on Spanish media. Are you worried they could sit this out? Are you worried some Latino voters are going to sit this one out? No, I think they're motivated. I think they're motivated to vote. I mean, you know, Latino communities want safe communities, too. They want good paying jobs. They want to be able to provide for their families and they want the dignity of work. And I think that they're going to show up. All right. Joanna Mendoza, Thank you so very much for being here. We really appreciate it.

48:29Coming up next, a behind the scenes look at the NBC News decision desk, the nerve center of our election coverage and the team that will be making those pivotal race calls all night long. You're watching Meet the Press now.

48:50Welcome back. We're now just five days from Election Day. And as for how next Tuesday's winners will be decided, NBC News has a team of experts who will be pouring over all the data and votes as they come in. NBC's Savannah Guthrie has a behind-the-scenes look at the NBC News decision desk team tasked with projecting the winners and losers. Behind every election at NBC is a vital team most viewers will never see. Our decision desk is crunching the numbers. They know where those votes have come from. After millions of voters make their voices heard on election day, the data scientists and election experts that make up the NBC News decision desk dictate the calls you hear from us on election night.

49:33Michigan too close to call. Minnesota Still too close to call at this hour. Too close to call is when we expect the winning margin to end up being less than five points. Leaning is when the desk is at a minimum 75 % level of confidence. It knows where the race is going. Likely is when the desk has at least 95 % confidence. And that coveted projected winner title? NBC News projects. That means our director of elections, John Lipinski, the man responsible for calling races here at NBC News, is confident the trailing candidate cannot catch up. We are here. This is election headquarters for NBC News.

50:16John Lipinski, I think you are the most important person on election night. I think that, you know, what we do on the decision desk is pretty critical to the night. Lipinski joined me on the election set in 30 Rock to walk me through how it all works. How can we be sure that the calls you're making for the NBC News decision desk are right? First of all, on any race that is competitive at all, we're not using polls to project anything. We're projecting races off of actual vote. Take us inside the process, because a lot of times people will see a graphic. It says 43 percent of the vote in projected winner.

50:50How do you do that? What we're really trying to do always is figure out how much vote is left to count. And do we know how the vote that we've actually seen, how it's breaking? Relying on the sophisticated models he's perfected over the years using raw vote count, exit poll data and other metrics to make his calls, Lipinski says there's no room for error. I have to be willing to bet my life on that call. If you put a checkmark and say a candidate won a race, you bet your life on it and your whole team. Unfortunately for them, yes. If you had to put a percentage on it, how certain are you? I don't even consider thinking about putting in a checkmark until we're at 99.5.

51:26In reality, it's 99.9. Once that checkmark is official, the team shares the data with our election reporters in the field and here in the studio. I do have one piece of news from the decision. Yes. But if a race is really close, everybody has to wait. We live under a decimal point in so many of these races. We do. We do. The guiding principle of the decision desk is we always want to be accurate. We always want to be right. Not first. We do not want to be first, but like, but sometimes we are and we're usually fairly quick. The one thing I also want to say is, is that we call all of our races ourselves.

52:02The privacy of the process so important. Only those who work on the desk are allowed inside on election night. No anchors, reporters or producers can enter. There was even a time when the iconic Saturday Night Live velvet ropes guarded the entrance. Wow. I've never actually been allowed in here before. Well, welcome. Management decided a long time ago with NBC standards that like they wanted the decision desk to be insulated from any of our editorial processes. No pressure. One week before the midterms, I got a rare look at the team in action, already prepping for the big night. When I came in here, I thought this was kind of like a sports bar for political nerds.

52:41I mean, you even have the big board here. This is a dashboard. And so it's the 30 ,000 foot view of elections. The hundreds of staff involved in Election Day practice for weeks. So when the real votes come in, every call is backed by data. Do you think we're going to have an early night or a late night or several days until you're able to call these big races? It's not a sprint. It's a marathon. So buckle in for a long night and early morning. We get a Senate night call. It's possible if we do. Remember, election night for me is until the Today Show starts. Thank you. Appreciate that.

53:431 p.m. and 9 p.m. Eastern. We'll be back tomorrow with more Meet the Press Now. There's more news ahead right now.

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