Meet the Press NOW — October 5

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1:11Welcome to Meet the Press Now. I'm Kelly O'Donnell. With just about a month until the midterm elections, both the president and vice president are hitting the campaign trail as new polls from typically red states show a path to the Senate majority now emerging for Democrats. President Trump on his way to Nebraska, a state he won by more than 20 points to campaign for Republican Senator Pete Ricketts. It's the first of three red state rallies on the president's schedule over the next seven days as he looks to fire up his base. Here was the president a short time ago as he left the White House. We have another sold out crowd today.

1:51We went to Ohio. We went to Texas. We went to Oklahoma. We're going to Michigan. We're going all over the country and we have another massive sold out. They say the lines are it's already sold out. So, you know, when I go there, they pick up a lot of steam. When I go there, they win. My poll numbers are great. And all you have to do is look at the crowds we're drawing. And every time I leave, that candidate will be losing. And by the time I leave, they're winning. Also on the move, Vice President Vance is on his way to Alaska to campaign for incumbent Republican Senator Dan Sullivan, who's facing a tight race against former Democratic Congresswoman Mary Patola.

2:30Here's Vance as he departed for the last frontier state earlier today. Looking forward to going to Alaska and campaigning for Dan Sullivan, a really great guy, a Marine Corps veteran, and just somebody really, really need to keep the United States Senate. I would just say to Alaska voters, don't judge Mary by what she's saying in the final six weeks of a Senate campaign. You got to judge her by what she actually did. And the reality is that she did support a lot of radical Democrat policies. These trips come as recent polling from The New York Times shows Democratic momentum in some red state Senate races.

3:03Democratic candidates lead in Alaska, Texas and Ohio. Republicans are just one point up in Iowa. And in Kansas, the race is tied and all those races are within the margin of error. But these are all states President Trump won by double digits in 2024. Democrats are also ahead in governor's races in four of those five states, including Iowa, where Democratic candidate Rob Sands' lead is outside the margin of error. On the campaign trail this weekend, the president doubled down on his midterm message while firing up his supporters in Alabama and Ohio. So just close your eyes and pretend I'm on the ballot.

3:46But in a way, I am on the ballot because we have to win. Nobody counted on the fact that Trump was going to go out and campaign for all these people. Because when I do, we win. When I run, we win. I'm really into win it. We want to win the midterms. If we can, we want to win the midterms. And we have great people. You got to get out and vote. You got to get out. You got to vote for these guys. Just get out and vote. If you do that, we're going to win and we're going to win big. And we're going to shove it up their OK, all right, then. This all comes as we have new poll numbers showing the president's popularity deteriorating with a key group that drove his 2024 victory.

4:30That is Latino voters. Our new NBC News Telemundo poll found two thirds of Latino voters disapprove of the job he's doing as president. And 59 percent said they would prefer a Democratic Congress. Those numbers are pointing toward a sizable swing for Latino voters away from President Trump compared to 2024. And joining me now is our team of reporters. NBC News White House correspondent Yamiche Alcindor is in Nebraska, where the president is set to speak tonight. NBC News chief data analyst Steve Kornacki is at the big board. And also with me is NBC News chief Capitol Hill correspondent Ryan Nobles.

5:08And Lauren Make from our NBC 10 station in Philadelphia. She's also working the trail for us. Yamiche, let me start with you. You're in Nebraska. The president is heading your way and he has hit other reliably red states over the weekend. That has been his main place in this last minute push. What is the message and what will you be watching for tonight? Well, Kelly, the president is, as you said, traveling to this ruby red state. And the strategy as we talk to our sources and as I talk to my sources, it really is to motivate Republican voters who might be less motivated to come out because President Trump isn't on the ballot.

5:46So at each one of these rallies, the president's essentially been saying, make it seem like I'm on the ballot. Picture me on the ballot and head to the polls in big numbers. Now, in terms of messaging, the president here is really leaning in on the economy, because that is, of course, the thing that so many voters and Americans around the country are concerned about. When you think about spiking gas prices, grocery prices, of course, when it comes to that first one on gas prices, it is connected, of course, to the war in Iran which the president and Israel launched now almost eight months ago or more than eight months ago.

6:16And the president has been telling voters, stick with me. I understand that there's pain out there, but this is really for your betterment. So I'm going to be expecting to see the president make that message again. I'm going to be watching to see how the crowds react to that. I'm also going to be watching to see how the crowds react to the president promising a lot of money to different groups. He's promised$5 ,000 dividends if Republicans win. He's also said seniors would get some money. There's a number of other financial promises that the president's made. So I'm very interested to see there.

6:43Now, the president was asked specifically about Nebraska just in the last hour. He said that he's coming here specifically to help the Senate race and the governor's race. He also said he's going to be here to help farmers and do something about diesel prices. So interesting to see how the president's going to respond and react to the policies he's laying out here when it comes to those specific issues to this state, Kelly. And Yamiche, we have been looking at polling that looks at what has happened with some of the key voting blocks. And one of the things we're learning is that there's some benefit right now for Senate Democrats.

7:16And that could mean that if they were to get power, the president has talked about the threat of impeachment to him, which would be a third time to do that. He's never been convicted, but he's been impeached by the House. Is that something the White House is even talking about at this stage? It's something that the White House is hinting at when I talk to my sources. They say if Democrats get their power back in Washington, if they get control of the Senate or get control of the House, or, of course, in worst-case scenario, if they get control of both for Republicans, if that's their worst-case scenario, that they're worried that they're going to go after the president and investigate him for the next two years, and that he's not going to be able to get any more policies or any more laws passed, and that he may also get impeached.

7:58This is, of course, a president who historically has been impeached twice. We haven't seen any other president have those situations on hand. We haven't seen any other president be impeached as much as the president. So he is definitely concerned about that based on my sourcing. That being said, the president's also saying that he doesn't believe the poll numbers. And he believes that when he goes to different states, that he believes he can make these numbers go up and that Republicans will win with his presence on the campaign trail, Kelly. Yamiche, if you could stand by with us, we'll come back to you again.

8:25Let me turn now to Steve. And as we mentioned, our brand new poll of Latino voters shows significant erosion of support for the president among that group. They shifted toward Donald Trump in 2024, a key to his victory, many would argue. And what could these numbers mean if they are pulling back from the president in 2026? Steve, I know you have looked at these numbers. Tell us what you have found out. Yeah, let's take a look, Kelly. Remember, this is historically a Democratic group. We're talking about Hispanic voters when the president did so well with them in 2024. What he essentially did was fight Kamala Harris to a draw with Hispanic voters.

9:03And that was the best ever performance for a Republican presidential candidate with Hispanic voters. So now two years later, on the eve of these midterms, our poll finds it's just barely a quarter of Hispanic voters who say they approve of the president. Nearly 70 percent disapproval. So obviously that high watermark of 24 for Trump and Republicans, you are seeing that is receding here. and the question becomes how much and why. First of all, on the why front, this is what it is for voters overall when we take polls. It's the cost of living. It's the economy. Look at this. On inflation, only 20 percent of Hispanics approve of how Trump's handling his job.

9:39It is almost 80 percent disapproved. He is almost 60 points underwater on that question. The economy, almost 50 points underwater. Nothing popular here, although he does get, relatively speaking, his best or least bad numbers on immigration and border security. Thirty nine fifty eight, you see there. But negative all around for the president on those key areas. Then you take a look here specifically, have his economic policies helped or hurt? Again, we see this with all voters. Overwhelmingly, Latino voters saying his policies have hurt. Interestingly, I think there is a tendency here. I apologize if it's not popping up.

10:13I can just say I can tell you, Kelly, you often hear folks when they say, you know, why is the president struggling with Hispanic voters? People will gravitate towards immigration as the explanation. Obviously, the stepped up ICE enforcement. The ICE enforcement is not popular with Latino voters in our poll at all, as we see with all voters. What is interesting, though, and I was trying to show here, was when you ask Latino voters to rank their most important issue, it is not immigration. Immigration is down in the single digits. It is inflation and it's the economy and the share of Hispanic voters who rate the inflation or the economy as their top issue, it's actually higher than voters overall.

10:54So we talk about the effect of the economy and inflation on lowering Trump's standing. I think that is particularly acute with Latino voters. And in terms of the implications of this potentially for the House in November, there is a number of districts, Republican-held congressional districts in Texas, in deep south Texas, in Florida, just outside Orlando in Miami-Dade County, places where Trump won by double digits in 2024 and where Republicans drew lines thinking they could take advantage of that. Those are the kinds of seats, those House seats that could be in danger if the kinds of declines you're seeing here in this polling come to fruition in November.

11:33And is this a mix of party affiliation among the Latino group that was surveyed here? Yeah, no, this is this, you know, is a broad cross section. You don't see this too often in polling. We should say when we're giving you a poll of Latino voters, you know, typically when you take a poll, a national poll, about 10 percent of the respondents are going to be Latino. And so when you start diving into those numbers, it's a relatively small sample within the broad national poll. This is a poll specifically of Latino voters. So, you know, not a lot of polling places will take the time and the money and the effort to do that.

12:06We did that. So these are some high quality numbers you're looking at. And that's what makes this so revelatory and learning what's behind the numbers. Thank you for that, Steve. Let me bring Ryan in. Ryan has just been on a reporting trip in Texas, and that always shapes how we see things, right, when we're talking to voters and seeing candidates in sort of real three dimensions. You've been tracking Tallarico. How do you see, and that's in the Senate race, how do you see the Latino vote playing there? Is Tallarico making a specific play to these voters? And what'd you learn? Well, what's interesting is watching Steve talk about these numbers because our poll had not come out when I was in Texas last week.

12:45But I felt like I was hearing from these voters in real time. And what I learned from them really matches up with the results of these polls. And Steve is 100 percent right. The number one issue every Latino voter I talked to mentioned was the economy. But it becomes a double whammy for the Latino community when you take into account this heavy handed mass deportation program, because these ice rates are affecting the economy. It's much harder for them to find people who can work on these job sites, even folks who are documented and have the proper paperwork because they're afraid of being caught up in an ICE raid and have to go through all those legal challenges.

13:19And as a result, they are lashing out and they're starting to figure out, as they saw in 2024, that they are a powerful block of voters that can swing the difference in the election. Listen to what one business leader I talked to had to say about the impact to the Latino vote. In the heat of the election, Kamala Harris and then candidate Donald Trump, we did a poll of our business owners. He had an 82 % favorability rating. We polled them again in mid-February, like about five months later. That 85 % approval had dropped to 42%. And it was, if you remember, they had just gotten hit over the head with tariff after tariff after tariff.

14:00And then it was, you know, it was the immigration raids. And then the rumors about a war coming. So all of those three things, that triple threat is what caused the migration, particularly in the business community, away from the Republican Party. And they're running as fast as they can. Two words, buyer's remorse. That's what our community, basically, if you could sum it up by that, that phrase right there, they were shocked by the way they felt betrayed. and that anger has only built over time, not gotten any better. And that phrase, buyer's remorse, Kelly, it became the theme of our reporting trip.

14:37Almost every Latino voter that we spoke to described a hopeful vote with Donald Trump, that he was going to make good on these promises that he made. And they feel in almost every instance that those promises have just not come through. And he was referring to a business community that is typically right in the sweet spot for Republicans. but they're paying tariffs if they're importing goods and they are having trouble filling job slots if there is a chill on employment in the community. How are you seeing this play out in terms of a willingness to embrace Democrats? It's one thing to be upset at Republicans, but how are they feeling about trying to look to Democrats?

15:15So that's the other part of this story that I think is very important. It's not as if they're all becoming Democrats. In fact, they're very skeptical of the Democratic Party. They feel in many ways that the Democratic Party's let them down as much as the Republican Party. But in this particular instance, it's Republicans who are in power and it's Republicans who are going to pay the price. But what I found talking to many of these voters is that they feel that they've become more awakened to what the political system, how the political system works, and that they have a desire to hold their candidates accountable going forward, as opposed to just voting and then forgetting about politics.

15:48And what's interesting, you mentioned the Senate race between James Tallarico and Ken Paxton, where Democrats are trying to win a seat that they haven't won in more than 50 years. James Tallarico was specifically asked about turning Texas blue. And he said, I'm actually not interested in turning Texas blue. I'd like to turn Texas purple. And that is specifically a message to some of those independent and moderate voters that aren't looking for a party line vote when which with whatever candidate they send to Washington. They want someone that's going to be focused on Texas and Texas values. And that might be an easier distance for them to travel.

16:22Speaking of traveling, let's head up to Pennsylvania. And that's where Lauren Make is positioned for us. Glad to have you there. You're covering one of the most closely watched house races in this cycle. What have you heard from voters, especially in the Latino community there, where they have some sway in their district?

16:41Kelly we are hearing a lot about the economy we are hearing about rent prices we're hearing about food prices we are of course hearing about gas prices and how that is affecting both business owners and people who drive DoorDash and people who just live and work in this community Now, some of the voters who I've talked to, they are not necessarily making the connection between President Trump and blaming him for the economy. I talked to one voter today who said it's OK. The economy is going OK for her. It's not great, but she feels like she has seen it worse. However, I also talked to a voter who says he has voted for President Trump three times in 2016, 2020 and two years ago in 2024.

17:31And he is not happy right now. He says that the economy for him is tough. Take a listen. We felt that the economy was way better back then during the first term. And now that I feel that he just want to be at war with everybody and making things comfortable and difficult. for everybody, especially with gas prices, with the war, he's raising prices every day. Does it affect whether you want to vote for someone he supports? It could, yeah, because whoever he sees that he supports basically has the same ideas as him. So I don't trust him now, but I would not trust who he trusts.

18:20that voter expressed some real hesitation to support someone who president trump supported saying that they would support the same policies um and and that could be significant in this area this is the seventh congressional district congressman ryan mckenzie a republican freshman republican is the incumbent here bob brooks is the democrat who is trying to flip this seat and This is one of the seats that we are watching, that you are watching, that could really make a difference in control of Congress in Washington. Kelly. We've been focused today on what's happening with the Latino community. And are you seeing reflected in this race a really direct appeal to them in places like Allentown and the surrounding area?

19:05Or is it just part of the overall message that is affecting the Latino community?

19:14They have no choice. Campaigns have no choice but to reach out to the Latino community here because they largely are the community. I'm in Allentown right now. More than 50 percent of the population here is Latino or Hispanic. So this is part of the fabric of the community here. And really, Latino voters have a lot of power here. We've also seen both of these congressional campaigns specifically launch Latino coalitions, both Congressman McKenzie and also Democrat Bob Brooks. with leaders in the Latino community to try to make that case to the voters. Kelly. Lauren, thank you for bringing your reporting to us.

19:55Yamiche, let me head back to you in Nebraska. Based on some of the conversations you've had, can you help us sort of wrap this up? We've talked about the appeal to Latino voters. We've talked about the issues that they have expressed concern about reflected in our polling and in the reporting. What's the administration saying to you about how they view Latino voters and whether they are souring on President Trump? Well, President Trump has repeatedly said that he does not believe the polling on Latino voters on the races overall around the country. So the president has said, just in the last hour here, just look at my numbers.

20:32When I go places, the crowds that we draw, that's what the president is most concerned about. And that's where he's really drawing any sort of inference on how this race and these midterms could go. So right now, the White House and those around the president are not at all expressing any concern to that. But you know, we've covered more than a dozen Republican candidates have broken for the president and immigration has been one of the issues. Latino candidates, Latino Republicans have broken for the president on the issue of immigration. So it's definitely a concern when you go out of the country.

21:00But the president trying to put on a brave face here. We'll see what happens tonight in Nebraska. Kelly. Yamiche, enjoy the rally, if I can use that phrase. We know It's kind of a sensory experience with you when you're there. So be well, my friend, and safe travels. Thank you to you. And speaking of the midterm elections, make sure you tune in tomorrow for an NBC News special, Decision 2026, Battle for Control of Congress. Everything you need to know as we hit the crucial final four weeks to Election Day. So mark your calendars. That's at 8 p.m. Eastern right here on NBC News Now. And coming up, border battles.

21:38I go one-on-one with a Democratic House lawmaker fighting for re-election in a Texas battleground border district that was carved up in the state's redistricting fight. Congressman Henry Cuellar is standing by. That interview is next, and you're watching Meet the Press Now.

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24:02Welcome back. House Democrats are growing more and more confident about their chances in Texas, despite efforts by Republicans to redistrict the state to boost their numbers. Minority leader Hakeem Jeffries telling reporters on Sunday that the redistricting push now risks backfiring on Republicans, given the new political environment. The political conditions in Texas are deteriorating for Republicans by the day and growing stronger and stronger for us, fueled by the fact that we are fielding tremendous candidates with amazing life experiences. And joining me now is Democratic Congressman Henry Cuellar of Texas, a veteran of the House who is running for reelection in Texas's newly drawn 28th congressional district.

24:54So, sir, welcome. Glad you're here. Thank you so much. Good. Good to see you. And Hakeem Jeffries on Sunday said that despite efforts by Texas Republicans to redistrict in their favor, he thinks your particular seat is safe. You're on the ground. You're running for your life, so to speak. Do you think your seat is safe? Well, we certainly feel very confident, but we're not taking anything for granted. Look, let me tell you what they did on redistricting. They based it on Trump numbers. I went from a 7.4 to about a 10.3 Trump. But they didn't look at what happened in 2024, how Hispanics voted for local county commissioners, you know, sheriffs and all that.

25:38And during 2024, they voted for Trump because of two issues. But down ballot, they voted for Democrats. That was in 2024. Now there's a different, stronger win for Democrats. So if they voted for Democrats down ballot, including myself, we feel very confident that they're going to continue voting for Democrats, including myself, down ballot. When you sort of sense what you're feeling in your own district and talking to your colleagues, what is your sense of the momentum that Democrats may have? We don't want to get ahead of ourselves here. We don't want to only look at polling. But there are people who are saying it could be a blue wave.

26:18Congressman Greg Kesar was one of them who said he believed a blue wave was coming. Do you predict the same? Well, I can only base on what I feel on the ground. In 2024, Hispanics voted, and this is not only in South Texas, but across the nation, for President Trump on two issues. One, open borders, number one, and number two, the cost of things. The president said that he, on day one, Liberation Day, he was going to bring prices down. Guess what? Now we're seeing that the Republicans have lied in the sense that prices have not gone down. The war has brought up gasoline, diesel prices, fertilizer prices up.

27:03The tariffs have brought food, milk, egg, almost anything have gone up. So the promise that they made, they didn't keep that promise. And just yesterday, I was in a very rural part of my district, and they mentioned that also. And then the other thing on immigration, they promised that they were going to be deporting the worst of the worst. They didn't stop there. What they did is they started going after dreamers, nuns, pastors, construction workers, people that have no criminal record. And down here in South Texas and within the Hispanic community, everybody knows somebody who's a good person, might not have the right paperwork, but they don't have a criminal record.

27:47And that has turned people off prices and the overreach of ICE. And Congressman, you said it yourself. Everybody here knows someone who might be affected by this. So immigration hits differently in a district like yours. Your opponent said this about you at the Republican Midterm Convention in Texas last month. Let's play a clip. And while I was down on the border living the open border crisis every single day, where was the Washington Democrats? Where was our own Congressman Henry Cuellar? They abandoned us. They opened our border. They turned their backs on our communities and they told us to be quiet because just keep voting the way you've always have.

28:31I want to give you a chance to respond to him on that. Yeah, you know, my my opponent used to be a Democrat down here in South Texas. We call somebody who switches because of political opportunity, a chacatero. That means they change their coat in the middle of their jacket in the middle of the game. And I was one of the I said as a ranking member of Homeland Security next year or this November, we win the House. And guess what? I with the help of the caucus, I'll be the chairman of Homeland. And I've always been a strong law and order Democrat, strong on the border, supported Border Patrol, hired more people for Border Patrol.

29:11In fact, I was with the Border Patrol Union about a month ago where we announced$1.2 billion of border security infrastructure. So, again, you know, my opponent has a way of taking credit for a lot of things. If you look at his political ads, everything he talks about are federal dollars. So, you know, that's something that's part of the political season. But I can tell you one thing. If you notice, the Border Patrol Union has not endorsed them. And there's a reason why. Quickly, do you think the president deserves some credit for really sharply reducing the number of border crossings? You know, it's policy.

29:54You know, we saw the numbers go down. We saw the policies. I mean, the number of crossings go down. I try to tell the Biden administration, look, I'm a Democrat. But the way the Biden administration was doing this, it was wrong. They were managing the flow. And I told them, you've got to have the right policies. In April of 2024, they finally put in the right policies. And the numbers started going down slowly. And I said, guess what's going to happen when President Trump, if he wins, he's going to take credit. And the numbers have gone down, 96 percent down of crossings without a single foot of border wall, without a single buoy being put in the water.

30:32So, yes, that the President Trump, without due respect, yes, he he did close the border. But it started going down in April of 2024. But it was already too late for Biden, for the Biden administration. I wish they would have listened to people like myself. Now we hear some of his former officials that used to work and they thought that maybe that their approach was not right. They could not say two words. And I try to get them to do to say two words, border security. Not a single Democrat nationwide would talk about border security. They would say, quote, oh, it's a broken immigration system and we got to fix that.

31:15No, it had to do about border security. Now, I'm glad the Democrats are using the two words that I've been asking them to use, border security. Let me ask you about the views toward the Democratic Party. an NBC Telemundo poll that was recently conducted looked to Latino voters to ask them about their views on Trump and the Republicans. But they do not seem to be rushing toward the Democratic Party either, with 42 percent saying they hold a negative view of the Democratic Party. How do Democrats win over those kinds of voters? Well, you know, first of all, Hispanics will vote for Democrats, at least in my area.

31:54they voted for Democrats down ballot. If it's a national candidate, then, of course, I would say this, the Democrats have caused their own problem. And I'll be very straightforward. You know, when you start taking very extreme positions and you act like those are midstream positions that are important to folks, you know, they're going to reject that. So at the national level, we have to do a better job. But I can say Democrats down here in South Texas, the sheriffs, the county commissioners and all that, we didn't believe in open borders. We didn't believe in sanctuary cities. We were law and order Democrats.

32:33And Democrats need to understand. And I'll ask our leaders that when we take charge of the House, we got to make sure that the extreme positions are not put as mainstream position for Democrats. And we'll have to leave it there, sir. Thank you for your time. Appreciate getting the view from your district, Congressman Henry Cuellar. We appreciate you so much. And we should also note that we have invited the congressman, his challenger, to come on the show. That invitation is open. Four weeks to go. Up next, the Pentagon rushes to remove all of its Air Force bombers from a British air base that they believe was targeted in a suspected terror attack last month.

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35:19And welcome back to Meet the Press Now. We have breaking new details about last night's midair incident on board a flight from Dubai to Tel Aviv. A Middle East official tells NBC News that Fly Dubai co-pilot who attacked his captain and tried to seize control of the plane told investigators he planned to crash the plane into Ben Gurion Airport in Tel Aviv or into a building in Tel Aviv. Early indications suggest the fly Dubai co-pilot, an Omani national named Haman Hmani, acted alone and was a lone wolf. That's according to multiple U.S. officials briefed on the investigation, as well as a former Israeli security official.

36:00Two U.S. officials and a Middle Eastern diplomat also say al-Hamani had previously been a pilot with Oman air, but was removed from duties. And investigators are now looking into whether there were concerns that he had a radical ideology. Authorities in the UAE who are leading the investigation say al-Hamami attacked his captain with an axe. Other crew members and passengers were able to enter the cockpit and subdue him. The Pentagon says all U.S. Air Force bombers have been taken out of a British air base used by the U.S. in the war with Iran. A Defense Department official telling NBC News that all U.S.

36:40bombers have been redeployed from RAF Fairford to their home stations inside the United States. The withdrawal comes amid an investigation into a possible planned terrorist attack at that base. Vice President Vance telling reporters this morning that the withdrawal was a precautionary measure. So what you saw there is the secretary of war out of an abundance of caution trying to protect our guys. We do feel with some confidence that the Iranians are, you know, they're trying to do what the Iranian state has done for 49 years, which is engage in acts of terrorism against the United States and against a lot of other people as well.

37:15So we are being extremely cautious. And that's all I'd say about that. And we're joined right now by NBC News senior national security correspondent Courtney Kuby. She is right here on set with us. You've been tracking all the details. So when we see abundance of caution or precautionary move because of a specific threat, which one is it? It's not really clear. I mean, we know the officials who we spoke with over the weekend when the U.S. military first acknowledged that they had moved all bombers out of Arya Fairford. They said, look, there is this ongoing threat to the base. But the big question is, why now?

37:51We heard about this threat publicly at least more than a week before the decision to quickly, hastily remove these aircraft. So why did the decision to do so so quickly and quietly over the weekend? And we just don't have an answer to that. President Trump also came out just moments ago and also talked about this and made it even more unclear, saying he believes that there was a threat to it. So we don't really know if this was new, if this was the same existing threat with some new urgency or imminence. We just don't have answers to that. And how strategically important was this particular base for the operations that we've seen carried out?

38:25And we know there's been a difficulty in getting a real assessment about the damage to U.S. military equipment and bases and so forth. Do you sense this is protective of the value of that arsenal of bombers? It could be, because one thing that we have heard from Trump administration officials since even before the president was inaugurated is they want to pull some of this U.S. military equipment and assets and bases, they want to pull them back to the United States, not just in Europe, but also in the Middle East. And we may see a dramatically different U.S. military footprint in both regions, Europe and the Middle East, over the coming months and years.

39:02There is some concern that they frankly are just sitting ducks there in some cases. But those bombers, some of those B-1s were used for strikes in Iran. Now, the U.S. has redundancy. They have other places that they can fly bombers from. And what we saw during Midnight Hammer, Operation Midnight Hammer in June of 2025, is they flew bombers from the United States all the way to Iran and all the way back. President Trump was actually just bragging about it recently, talking about how it was more than 30 hours in the air and they dropped the bombs down the air vents. And then they made their way all the way back to the U.S.

39:32But what having them forward based in the U.K. does is just it's just a shorter distance. It just makes it a little bit easier for those pilots, for the refuelers. It's a little bit cheaper. So this is a disadvantage if, in fact, President Trump were to decide that he wants to restart major combat operations or carry out more strikes. And when the bombers go back to the U.S., the crew and personnel and all of that flows with them. Yes, they do. Thank you so much, Courtney. Appreciate that. And after the break, we have some new reporting on how the ICE-involved shooting death of a Houston father is prompting strong political reactions in the Latino community in Texas.

40:05As our new NBC News poll shows, more than two-thirds of Latino voters say President Trump's immigration policies have gone too far. Stay with us right here on Meet the Press Now.

40:27We are so glad you're back with us. And as we've mentioned, our latest NBC News poll shows Latino voters who helped propel the president to the White House may now be souring on him because of some of his policies, including issues related to immigration, where 67 percent of Latino voters say the president's policies have gone too far. 31 percent of Latino voters said they or someone they know have started carrying I.D. because of concerns about ICE immigration enforcement. 27 percent said they know someone who has been deported or detained by ICE. This comes as ICE arrests reached a record high over the summer, including some that ended with violence and deadly encounters, like in Texas, where a 52-year-old Mexican national was fatally shot by immigration agents during a traffic stop in Houston.

41:17NBC News senior national politics reporter Natasha Karecki spoke with some people in that community, and she joins us now. Now, good to have you here with us. And you have been to Texas. You've talked to people who were directly affected by that particular fatal ice shooting. What did they tell you and how are they reacting to the president's policies as a result? Yes. So the July 7th shooting death really encapsulated all these tension points within the Latino community that we're seeing in these polls. You know, it galvanized the city of Houston, a lot of the Latinos, but also other activists and even people who supported Trump in the past because they saw so much that was unfair here.

42:00This was a father. He had no criminal history. He was going to his job early in the morning. And then there were some witness accounts that contradicted ICE accounts. So it all just really galvanized this community. They forced in investigation. And what we were hearing from people is just really this level of feeling disrespected, of feeling distraught. There's a level of hopelessness among a lot of people who just feel like they cannot do anything here. But definitely there is a huge pushback to these policies from the administration. Hope to get a sense from you of how those emotions and experiences might translate to some of the races we're seeing.

42:44So we've said that our poll found 67 percent of Latino voters say the president's immigration enforcement has gone too far. When you see that, what impact might that have on some key races we're watching? Texas Senate and governor's races. What have you learned? Right. So, you know, particularly among Republicans, we're hearing over and over that there's going to be a depressed vote among the party members. So if you had in 2024, you had 55 percent of Latinos supporting Trump. Now it appears those people are swinging back to Democrats. So as far as the the Abbott-Hinejosa race, the the governor's race, we're seeing it closing up a little bit here.

43:27Now, it's still Texas is very red, but it could very well impact that race. And then the marquee race, Tallarico versus Paxton, we're seeing hundreds of millions of dollars that Republicans are spending right now and they feel like they have to. It is a toss up. And I've had Republicans telling me it is a toss up. And a lot of this is driven by this Latino discontent. They don't like what they're seeing in their community. Now, as we've seen in these polls. Economics are a big driver here as well. But going back to it, everybody knows someone who was dealt with unfairly, who languished in a prison, who was deported.

44:08And so it's really, it's really attacking this community from every angle. And what will you be looking for? Four weeks to go, it's been how many times have we talked about Texas and might it switch after being deeply red for a generation or more? What will you be watching in these next few weeks to get a sense of how Latinos may shape the outcomes here? Really, the mobilization efforts, the ground games here, because another thing that I heard in my interviews with people is they were angry, they were upset, they were illegal. And then you ask, are you going to vote? And they'd say, I don't know, it's not going to matter.

44:47My vote won't matter. Or they just don't want to get involved or they're fearful. So there was a lot of things going against Democrats who really want to make this historic. They really have to get those voters to the polls to to the extent that there is a good ground game, that we're seeing evidence of that. That, I think, is what is going to be critical in these last weeks before the election. Those are all great insights. Thank you so much, Natasha. We appreciate you spending time on the road and bringing your reporting right here. And we will have much more on the midterms, the issues in our NBC News poll, and that's coming up.

45:24The panel is here, waited to come on and hash it all out here for you in the next few minutes. Stay with us.

45:37Welcome back. The panel is here. As we noted earlier, new polls show Democrats leading or tied in Senate races in red states. That polling from The New York Times shows Democratic candidates ahead in Alaska, Texas and Ohio and Iowa and tied in Kansas. But those numbers show Republicans losing the midterms more than Democrats winning them. More than half of likely voters in those battleground states say the Democratic Party is too far to the left. Joining me now is our panel, Sabrina Rodriguez, politics reporter at The Wall Street Journal. Chuck Rocco, president of Solidarity Strategies. And we have to give this bit.

46:15He's also serving as a senior advisor to the Tallarico campaign. We've been talking about that in this show. And Stephen Hayes, editor and CEO of The Dispatch and an NBC News political analyst. Sabrina, let me start with you. Let's dive into these polls. We've been neck deep in the polls in this show, and there's a lot of good information about it. What do you make of the competitive nature and this location, red states where Democrats are doing better than they might have been expected? I mean, this really speaks to the moment in politics and sort of some of the pushback we're seeing from voters on the state of the economy.

46:48I mean, I remember talking to voters in 2024 all across this country and the number one issue for them and the number one draw for folks who were considering voting for President Trump, who had maybe not voted for a Republican in the past, was the economy and this belief that things were better when he had been president the first time around and this belief that he could get things to a better place. and if he had a second term. For a lot of folks, that is not what their reality feels like on a day to day. And that is something that Democrats have been able to capitalize. But I think something notable about the poll is that Democrats still have to figure out what their identity is outside of Donald Trump.

47:24And I think the heading out of these midterms, regardless of what the outcome is, regardless of whether it is a good night for them, there's still a lot of questions about what their message is going forward. It's more anti-Republicans or Trump and not so much being thrilled with what Democrats are offering. Chuck, how optimistic are Democrats about flipping the Senate? There was a point where people said, oh, the House is within reach, but the Senate's unlikely. Is that changing? I think it's changing a lot in the last 60 days. Normally you see polls tighten, especially when you see the ungodly amount of money that the GOP is spending on this, because anybody who's done campaigns for more than 30 seconds knows when you spend that much money, it normally moves numbers.

48:04Well, it may be moving them, but it's not moving them nearly as dramatic as we thought they were. Your polling, the New York Times polling, all this polling backs it up. And as somebody who's working not only for James Tallarico, but Gina Hanna-Hosha and five more congressional seats in Texas, this Latino vote in your earlier segment is the through line between a lot of this. And when you talk about those races that you are directly dealing with, and so you may have more insight than the rest of us on this, Texas has been this grand illusion for Democrats for a generation or so. It used to be gettable.

48:38It hasn't been. Is it different now based on what you're seeing? Look, I've worked in Texas for 36 years. I worked for Ann Richards. All these white hairs were very much earned back in the day. But I'll tell you that the difference is, is these Latino voters moved dramatically to Donald Trump for the last 10 years. Five points, 10 points. In some places like the Valley, almost 20 points. You've seen a snapback. And that's the biggest difference right now that makes Texas real. Steve, do you think there is a concern for some of the Republican candidates that the president's numbers, how people are feeling about him, will be a drag on them, even if they have had individually a good relationship with their voters in home states?

49:15Yeah, I would say it's the biggest concern of Republican voters in competitive seats. That's what they are worried most about. And I think you're seeing this on a number of levels. If you look at the Senate races, you're starting to see, as we've discussed, as you discussed with Steve Kronach in the earlier panel, you're seeing candidates move away from the president. You're seeing candidates willing to criticize the president in ways that we haven't seen from Republicans before. This is true in competitive House races and competitive Senate races. I think there's a difference in state legislative races where some of these candidates, some of these state assembly candidates and state Senate candidates are polling in some cases 10, 15, 20 points ahead of Donald Trump, particularly in the upper Midwest.

49:51They feel like they have direct relationships with voters. Voters know these candidates as Vince or Sally rather than, you know, somebody who's tied to Donald Trump. But the people running in federal offices have to answer for Donald Trump because they'll be working with him for the next two years if they go back to Washington. Strategic decisions parties make are sometimes ahead of where we see things going. So when Republicans pulled money out of North Carolina in that Senate race or in California, what is that telling you about, since they have a lot of resources, What is that telling you about how they view the map?

50:22Some of that money going to Kansas, who would have thought? What does that say to you about how they are using their resources and what they think is still achievable? Yeah, look, at this point, as Chuck suggests, at this point, you're a month out. You don't have time to be emotional about this. You're making strategic, hard, cold, calculating decisions about where your money is likely to do the most good. And they've decided that it's not in North Carolina. I will say this goes back to the point that many people made when Ken Paxton defeated John Cornyn. was that whatever happens in that one specific Senate race, this was going to suck money from everywhere else in the country that competitive Republicans certainly would have liked to have had their hands on.

51:00We're watching that happen in real time now. And that was largely because the president chose Paxton, not Cornyn, the sitting incumbent senator. Twice, yes. Yes. Let me ask you about Maine. So we've seen that a new double AARP poll shows Troy Jackson with a slight lead over Senator Susan Collins. I think she's going for his seventh term. She's been a big name in Maine for a long time. They're going to have a series of debates. What a lot of debates between now and the election. What are you looking for in that matchup and what a debate can bring to a race? Look, in Maine, Stephen said it in Maine, like a lot of these small states, voters know these folks.

51:37Troy Jackson was the president of the state Senate. Collins has overperformed. I've been trying to beat her now since I had hair and it was all black. I guess it's in a long time. And she always has been resilient because she has a relationship with voters and she's not saw as a MAGA extremists. But in a wave year, anybody knows this, in a wave year, I just needed a Democrat with a pulse without a swastika tattoo probably to get over the edge. And I don't know if that's enough yet, but we'll see. Sabrina, let me ask you how you are looking at the way the president is using his travel itinerary and the map that's so critical now.

52:10He's gone to some very red states. There are certainly races there for him to support, but he has not necessarily been in places where we see Republicans wanting some separation. Is there still benefit to him being out there, getting a message out, even if it is not actually occurring in the place where the contested races are most urgent? I mean, we see that the president is out saying, you know, pretend that I'm on the ballot. That is something that certainly works with Republican base voters who are still big fans of the president. So you see him going to these these, you know, deep red pockets of the country and trying to drum up energy, trying to drum up excitement for voters who have been longtime fans and supporters of his, but who may not be super excited about going out in these midterms election, maybe are not happy with the state of the economy or not happy with the war in Iran, a variety of reasons, or are not crazy about the candidates on the ballot or just particularly interested in turning out to the midterms.

53:02So much of this, like the, we kind of all laugh at this, but it all comes down to turnout. Ultimately it does. And you see the president in these red areas trying to drum that up. But of course, this does create some tension for some of these candidates in these competitive races who would like to see a little less of the president and get more time for them to just be engaging with voters and not having to answer. We've got about a minute left. I'd like to get your take on an unusual moment. It's not a first, the outing of a phone number of a sitting senator. He did it to Lindsey Graham. He's just done it to Tom Cotton of Arkansas.

53:36What do you make of that? It's a fight over daylight saving time. Is this the kind of thing that has any, is it just attention getting? Does it have any impact on the president's relationship with his own party? I mean, this is classic President Trump, you know, going on truth social and pressuring a senator. Now, the phone number may be an escalation. I don't want my phone number out there for the world, but I think it's typical Trump. And Steve, how would you analyze that? Yeah, look, I mean, at a time when Donald Trump is not very popular with Republicans and when he looks to be helping to lose them elections in a month, this is not a smart move.

54:11Well, I'm going to have to leave it there. Call me lately, right? Call me maybe. Sabrina, Chuck, Stephen, thank you. Appreciate your time today. And we will be back tomorrow with more of Meet the Press Now.

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