Meet the Press NOW — October 8

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1:25Welcome to Meet the Press Now. I'm Kristen Welker in Washington with less than four weeks until the midterm elections. The president is weighing renewed military operations in Iran. Sources telling NBC News as the economic costs of the war are top of mind for voters ahead of November's elections. President Trump and his national security team have discussed the possibility of resuming large scale military operations against Tehran. That's according to a U.S. official and a person with knowledge of the discussions. His options include launching strikes before midterm elections next month, those same sources say.

2:00The president posting today on social media he will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the midterms. Now it comes as this week he offered mixed messages on the status of the war. We're doing extremely well in the Islamic Republic of Iran, very well. We have to finish up and it's only a question of which way do we want to do it the nice way or the not so nice way and pretty soon you'll find out. It's a war that's been won from the standpoint of what we have to do. We did this for that reason. We've essentially accomplished that. Their military is now wiped out. Their whole country right now is wiped out.

2:38It'll be over very quickly and when it does and when it does oil prices will come tumbling. I think the deal isn't really something that I want to do, but they're willing to offer us anything to stop. The war, of course, has been a major driver behind rising fuel prices. Today, oil closed up more than three percent at ninety one forty nine a barrel, thirty seven percent higher since the start of the war. Gas prices are forty six percent higher and diesel is more than 50 percent higher since before the conflict. The economic fallout of the war front and center on the campaign trail, with some Republicans distancing themselves from the president on the issue as others acknowledge the political pain it's caused their campaigns.

3:21Republican Attorney General and Senate candidate Ken Paxton telling donors behind closed doors an audio that was leaked the war was the source of the party's affordability problems. Take a look. The war is gas prices. It's diesel. It's over$6. to have the gallon of diesel and to give them the attention. So I'd say that's probably the biggest problem in that push drive the food prices and everything else. And in last night's Iowa Senate debate, Democrat Josh Turek slammed Republican Congresswoman Ashley Hinson for her votes against ending the war. When I'm out there with farmers and especially at harvest time talking about an all-time high of diesel, This is because of this war in Iran and a war that Ashley Hinson has voted in favor of seven times.

4:12This war in Iran has led to gas prices going up in Iowa more than almost any other state. So I think we need to end this war in Iran. And let's get back to diplomacy. Certainly don't want to see Iran have a nuclear weapon, but we have to end this war. We do need to bring it to an immediate and successful end. And to me, that means not allowing them to have a nuclear weapon and making sure that we're working with and protecting our allies in the region. I trust in our U.S. military, the greatest fighting force in the world, to bring this to a close as quickly as possible, because I know people are getting squeezed.

4:43So why vote against the resolution? I don't think we need another resolution, and I certainly don't want to see the president not be able to do an orderly end to this war. We should note Hinson is one of a handful of Republican candidates who has publicly called for an end to the war. So has another GOP Senate candidate, former Congressman Mike Rogers, who will face off against Democrat Abdul El-Sayed tonight in the first Michigan Senate debate. It's one of three Senate debates tonight. Senator John Ossoff and Congressman Mike Collins will face off in Georgia. And in Maine, Senator Susan Collins and former state Senator Jackson take the stage for the second time this week.

5:21Joining me now from the White House is NBC's Kelly O'Donnell, NBC's Dan DeLuce and John Allen are with me on set. Also with me, Brianne Fonden-Steele, chief politics reporter at the Des Moines Register. Thanks to all of you for being here. Dan, I want to start off talking to you about this reporting that you all have, that President Trump is considering relaunching a full-scale attack. What's your latest information? Well, they're looking at military options because this conflict, as you know, is in a real stalemate, right? It's really stuck. And so they're looking at what might be able to bring the war to a close.

5:57what options might accomplish that. And that includes the sort of second front that's opened in Yemen with the Houthis around the Red Sea. But it's very unclear what military action it would take and how far the president is ready to go, what risks he's willing to take. Well, speaking of the risks, I mean, we are in the middle of this midterm election cycle. How are the politics of all of this playing into his decision, if at all? I think they're definitely playing into his decision. And like all White Houses, right, They are very much aware of how the war is viewed by the public. And as we all know, it's not very popular.

6:33And so it's hard to imagine there would have to be a really compelling reason, I think, to take serious military action right now, so close to the election, especially since they've sort of been living with this low boil conflict and able to sort of tolerate the stalemate at the moment. So I think the window for action is probably much more about after the election. But we'll see. Yeah, we will watch that closely. And meanwhile, a new congressional report shows that 81 military aircraft were destroyed in the war twice of what was initially reported. What are you learning about that? Well, this is really an issue, right, is how much damage the Iranians have been able to inflict on the U.S.

7:13military in the region, on our bases. These aircraft, they were lost. And we saw it even with the Lincoln aircraft carrier, where they could not resupply close by and had to really wait on supplies for much longer, stay at sea much longer than they normally would have. And so the U.S. still has resources, obviously, and still has a serious arsenal and could go to war in a really serious fashion against Iran, of course. And if the U.S. were to attack Iran, any indication of how Iran might respond? I think we have seen that Iran has the ability, even with all the damage they've absorbed, that they know how to fight in this asymmetric fashion.

7:52So they go after U.S. bases. They go after our allies. They still continue to fire on tankers right now in the Strait of Hormuz. So they still have drones and missiles that can kind of drag out the conflict and make it painful. And it forces the U.S. to make these really difficult choices. Are we willing to escalate, take casualties and suffer damage to our own resources? All right. Well, I know you're going to continue to track that closely. Kelly O'Donnell, I want to turn to you now. As we mentioned, the president posted on social media that he's not going to attack Iran before the midterms.

8:25What are you hearing there at the White House? Well, one of the things, Kristen, that stands out about this is the president is often reluctant to talk about future military plans or to limit his options in any way. That's one of the rhythms of asking him about these kinds of military situations. and he will often want to keep all of his available choices active. And so for the president to post that he does not intend to launch any significant military operation between now and the midterms is notable. And as Dan described, it is standard and appropriate for the White House and the Pentagon to make a lot of operational options available to the president.

9:07And having done that, considering that based on the reporting of Dan and others on our team. That is not in conflict with the president saying he's not going to do anything for the next few weeks. It's merely another piece of the kaleidoscope of how do they prepare for this needing to be able to react should Iran take action. They clearly know the election schedule and they also know and monitor what the president says publicly. And he has many times said the war will end soon. He has also tied that to the cost of fuel and energy, saying prices will come down. So the president is sending a message that is useful in the domestic political space of trying to reassure those Republican candidates or voters that there isn't going to be an amping up of the Iran war imminently.

9:50But at the same time, the administration still has to be prepared for needed options and perhaps adjustments that could ultimately bring the war to a conclusion, as Dan described. So the president has given us lots of answers on the matter of Iran and lots of timelines. And today he added to that by saying no new conflict or or attack in these next few weeks. Yeah. And still yet keeping his options for what might happen after the midterms on the table. And, Kelly, the midterms are the backdrop to all of this. Every discussion that we are having, quite frankly, right now. And the president just added Alaska to his midterm travel plans.

10:30Obviously, a hotly contested Senate race there. what can you tell us about his strategy of going to Alaska? Well, some frequent flyer miles for the president if Air Force One counts those. Alaska is certainly the last frontier, and yet it is a very, very necessary piece of the geography of midterms 2026. Dan Sullivan, the incumbent Republican, had the unusual circumstance of another candidate during the primary with the same name. He got through that. Now he's up against a Democrat, Mary Patola, who had served in Congress. And so these are two people who have been able to be elected statewide in Alaska at a time when Democrats are seeing some of these positive sort of atmospherics as well as situations.

11:16And Alaska is one of those places where many voters cast ballots by mail because of the great distances involved. So it'll be interesting to see how the president continues to handle the issue of saying he's not fond of mail-in ballots, but also wants those Republicans that are going to use mail-in ballots to do so. So more miles for the president in a place that is often not on the campaign trail because of the time and cost of going there. The president's time is always valuable in flying there and flying back. But part of what we expect will be some West Coast travel for the president to reinforce his message with these Republican candidates and trying to draw attention, some long distance campaigning to even have an impact in other races.

12:00He'll be physically in Alaska, but some of what he has to say may resonate in some of the other key races, too. Yeah, no doubt about that. We'll be watching that stop very closely. Kelly O'Donnell at the White House for us. Kelly, great to see you as always. Thanks so much, Brianne. I want to head out to you because, as we noted at the top, Iran, obviously a big topic of last night's debate. What were your biggest takeaways from that faceoff? Well, I think you saw, you know, Iowa nice, but with a little bit of a bite last night, it was a very kind of collegial debate. Both of the candidates really kind of dug in on the issues, but they landed their attacks.

12:35And so I don't know that either of them kind of had the knockout blow that maybe they would want at this point. They both kind of held their own. But Iran was one of the very first questions on the table, and particularly as it relates to diesel and to fuel costs. You know, that's an incredibly salient issue in Iowa, especially right now, where farmers are heading out into harvest. They're really, you know, seeing those prices. And the president has taken some action on diesel costs in the last couple of weeks, but it'll be a question of whether kind of Iowa voters' sentiments are already baked in about the economy.

13:08Yeah, absolutely. You know, it's so interesting because Congresswoman Hinson has tried to distance herself just a bit, ever so slightly, from the president on the issue of Iran. She also appeared with him in the Oval Office last month. How is she trying to walk that line, Brianne? Well, it's a fine line. She's somebody who launched her campaign saying that she would be Donald Trump's biggest ally in the Senate if she's elected. She really started out the campaign on kind of this America first MAGA agenda. And as we've seen his popularity decline, we've seen her shift just a little bit. And she was asked about this in the debate last night.

13:46And she said, you know, I'll be Donald Trump's ally when it benefits Iowa, but I'm not opposed to opposing him, to pushing back on him a little bit. So she's trying to walk that line. But, you know, when Vice President J.D. Vance was in the state, she did not attend in the Oval Office. The president said that he would be traveling to Iowa to help her campaign. We'll see if she's able to meet him at that event, if and when it does occur. Yeah, that will be an interesting data point for sure. Josh Turk also backing away from his party a little bit, trying to make that case. He's willing to work across the aisle in order to get things done.

14:24Yeah, the state of play in Iowa is really fascinating right now. Both of these candidates are tacking to the middle a little bit. Neither of them is really kind of clinging to their party at this point. And I think that's really reflective of what Iowa voters are looking for. They're looking for a candidate who can kind of carve out their own identity separate from the national party when both of those parties have kind of some negative connotations around them at the moment. And so Josh Turek, we heard him say that he has no interest in being involved in any kind of impeachment effort if he is elected.

14:58We heard Ashley Hinson say that she would work with Chuck Schumer if she's elected. These are not things that maybe we would have heard in previous campaigns, but it's very clear that they're both working to attract kind of disaffected voters across the middle, independent voters, no party voters in Iowa are the largest voting bloc in the state. Yeah, those voters in the middle are going to make all of the difference. I just want to paint a picture for our viewers so they understand just how close this Senate race is. I mean, this is razor tight. If you look at a recent poll, Ashley Hinson, 45, Josh Turek, 43 percent.

15:31It gets much wider when you look at the gubernatorial race there, where you have a nine point margin. Rob Sand has opened up over Zach Lane. What do you make of these numbers less than a month out? Well, I think it goes back to what we were just talking about. Rob Sand has really carved out a lane for himself where he's put a massive amount of distance between himself and the Democratic Party. He's running essentially as an independent in the state. And I think Republicans even would give him credit to say that he's run a very smart campaign here in this state. He started very early. He's raised a lot of money.

16:07He's been on the ground. And so I think he's running a uniquely successful campaign here in this state. And the question for Democrats really is whether he has coattails and to what extent he's able to lift up some other candidates in the party, considering he's very much distanced himself from the Democrats. Yeah, absolutely. Well, both races, absolutely fascinating. Brianne Fannin Steele, thanks so much for giving us all your great reporting and analysis today. We really appreciate it. John, let me turn to you for some more analysis. You were watching that debate in Iowa closely last night. What were your key takeaways?

16:42I mean, I think Brianne really framed it well, which is that it was Iowa nice with a little bit of a bite. Yeah, it was much more civil than we're used to seeing in the modern political environment. But what stuck out to me, Kristen, number one, Josh Turk was really trying to make sure that Ashley Hinson dances with the one that brung her, and that is Donald Trump. He was able to open up with a volley of shots at her on policies that she supported, that the president has supported. So voted five times against ending his tariffs and voted seven times against reigning in the Iran with a resolution, a war powers resolution.

17:19The issue that matters to Iowans most, and this is true across the country, in fact, if you don't live in Martha's Vineyard or in Jackson Hole, the issue that matters most to you right now is the economy and maybe even some of the folks there. So it's also true in Iowa. He was trying to stick to that as much as possible. Hinson was taking shots at him for missing votes in the legislature and for taking money, dark money, through other organizations from corporate PACs after saying he wouldn't take corporate PAC money. But those are sort of the issues she was going after. He was going on the economy.

17:49I'm glad you talk about the economy. Let's look at some new polling. This is from CNN, which shows the impact of the economy in Ohio and Iowa. 76, 74 percent of voters say President Trump's policies have increased the cost of living in their state. John Allen, that's significant. Yeah, everything is the economy, Kristen. I just traveled the country across Interstate 80 through all these congressional swing districts. I think eight swing districts went through Ohio and Iowa. It is the only thing that anyone is talking about. And they're talking about it in different ways. You know, if you live in the cities, you're talking about the price of groceries, the price of the unlimited gas that you get at the gas station.

18:30If you live in a rural area, you're talking about the tariffs or the price of diesel. You're talking about how, you know, a bad yield this year could be really bad for you on the farm, that you're going to be facing debt in future years because of it. But whoever you are, it's the economy. Yeah. And just finally, three more debates tonight. What do you want, including in Michigan? I mean, that's the main event. Abdul El-Sayed is perhaps the most interesting candidate in America, whether you like him or you dislike him. I think what I'm going to be watching for there is, is he able to talk about the economy?

19:00He has spent so much time on foreign policy in a moment where every other candidate in the country is talking about the economy. Will he be able to focus on what he's going to do to bring jobs to Michigan, to improve the economy in Michigan, and a little bit less about the Middle East? Well, I'm going to travel out to Michigan to interview him tomorrow for Meet the Press on Sunday. So we're looking forward to bringing that to folks. John, Dan, thanks so very much. Thank you. Really appreciate it. Well, as the administration weighs once again ramping up the Iran war, some service members are on their way home.

19:38This was the scene last hour of the USS Lincoln and its 5000 personnel docking in San Diego after a grueling deployment that got extended by the war by months. You are looking at live pictures from San Diego of the ship now docked with military personnel set to disembark any moment now. We are tracking that. It has been an emotional scene on shore with families and friends eagerly awaiting their arrival. NBC News senior national security correspondent Courtney Kuby filed this report aboard the USS Lincoln just before it docked. I'm on board the flight deck of the USS Abraham Lincoln in the Pacific Ocean.

20:17This is day 322 of their deployment, but it's also the day that the sailors and Marines on this ship finally go home. Now, they have had a grueling deployment. They spent weeks underway supporting Operation Epic Fury. That was the U.S. and Israeli war against Iran. At one stretch, officials here tell us they spent 60 straight hours conducting operations. Not only that, they went for weeks of day after day of 24 hour a day operations, including flights and strikes inside Iran. Now, even after the ceasefire, this ship and the associated ships in the carrier strike group were responsible for helping to secure or coordinate commercial ships going through the Strait of Hormuz and enforce a blockade that didn't allow any Iranian ships to go to Iranian ports or leave them and make their way back out into Strait of Hormuz.

21:09It was a tough operational tempo for the men and women of this ship, and they did it for months without any kind of a port visit. Now, after all that, they are finally heading back to San Diego today. U.S. officials on the ship tell us that they're expecting thousands of family and friends to show up to welcome them home. Some of the first ones off the ship today will be the new dads. The Navy tells us that there are nearly 60 of them on this ship, men who have not yet met their babies because they were born during the deployment. This promises to be a pretty emotional reunion and an emotional day.

21:42Back to you. Wow. I can't imagine anything more emotional than that. Courtney Kuby, thank you so very much for that report. Coming up, it's the economy. As we were just talking about, fuel prices tick back up with inflation and the cost of living top of mind for voters in the final weeks before Election Day. We'll dive into what it means. It comes as the first hurricane of the season barrels towards the Gulf Coast and nearly all of U.S. offshore oil production is in its path. We have the latest forecast and impact. Stay with us. You're watching Meet the Press Now.

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23:39Welcome back. As we noted earlier, oil prices are rising again, despite President Trump's social media post vowing not to attack Iran until after the midterms. Oil up roughly 3 % today, fueled by a number of factors, including recent strikes on tankers in and around the Strait of Hormuz over the past week, as European leaders are signaling they may not release millions of barrels of additional diesel as was expected. Plus, Hurricane Isaias is set to make landfall along the Gulf Shore in the coming days and is already forcing major oil companies to begin shutting down some production sites to prepare for that storm.

24:16NBC News business and data correspondent Brian Chung joins me now. Brian, I just laid out a number of factors at play right now impacting energy prices. Walk us through it. How do you see it? Yeah, Kristen, well, first off, oil prices are still extremely elevated compared to where they were before the war. But the action as of the last few days over the last week or so has been coming down. Ninety one dollars and forty nine cents for a barrel of oil. Those prices were over one hundred dollars not so long ago. as far as prices at the pump,$4.36 is the national average. Could be higher depending on where you are.

24:48But that is down from a week ago where it was$4.41 and certainly much lower than it was during the peak of this war earlier in the summer. So the big story here is that oil prices are coming down because of the optimism around actual volume coming out of the Middle East where it seems like more tankers have been able to fill up and then leave relatively safely with the action de-escalated, at least for the time being. But then also the G7 release, even though we have some countries that are saying they don't need to do additional releases. But the overall announcement from the G7 that they would be tapping some of their reserve to alleviate prices has had the results of alleviating prices in the overall markets.

25:25Well, Brian, oil companies have already started to shut down some offshore production facilities ahead of Hurricane Isaias's arrival. Typically, how long do these shutdowns last? How much impact could this actually have? Well, the issue is that with Isaias, as we continue to forecast the path here, we're trying to figure out exactly whether or not it's going to be refineries or the production facilities themselves that would be impacted. But you have one estimate from LIPOW. This is a major oil analyst group that said 2.7 million barrels per day or 14 percent of the nation's refining capacity is in the path of this storm, which would imply that's a pretty substantial share that would likely have to get shut down.

26:03Probably is already beginning the process of shutting down. You have to remember, it's not just during the duration of the storm actually making landfall. For days beforehand, they have to shut down and make sure they take the necessary precautions to get people out of those regions. And then it can take days and sometimes weeks to get them restarted even after the storm has passed. So Chevron, Shell, BP have already announced the evacuation of some non-essential personnel. But the analysts over at Lighthouse saying this could not have come at a worse time given everything else that's going on in the world.

26:30Brian, you know, it's interesting. Gas prices are actually down about five cents a gallon since last week. Why are we seeing that? Yeah, well, again, I think a lot of that is because of the G7 production, as well as the overall volume of oil that's actually coming out of the Middle East. But another important story here is that executive order about the red dye diesel. We've talked about this on the show, but the ability for truckers that would normally not be allowed to fill up using that tax free diesel now able to tap that. So it seemed like that has led to some of those prices coming down as well because of the fact that those tankers don't have to spend the roughly 25 cents per gallon on that federal tax.

27:07But a lot of questions over the implementation of this, the way that states would actually enforce this, given that it's actually enforced at the state level. And this is coming from the federal government EO. So a lot of practical questions about this. But most people saying, even though you're trying to put a Band-Aid over this, the only longer term solution here would just be to get more oil and supply flowing through the world. All right. Brian Chung, as always, thank you so much. Now, as we noted, we are tracking Hurricane Isaias, the first hurricane of the Atlantic season, as it bears down on the Gulf Coast.

27:37It's now a Category 1 storm and is expected to intensify ahead of making landfall along the Florida-Mississippi border tomorrow. Forecasters warning of dangerous, life-threatening conditions. Officials in Florida have already issued evacuation orders for tourists in some communities in the region where residents have been stocking up on supplies and filling sandbags. NBC News meteorologist Bill Karens is tracking Isaias. He joins me now. So, Bill, when and where do you expect it to make landfall? Yeah, Chris, and that's a million-dollar question. So we're mostly focused about 24 to 30 hours from now in between Panama City and Mobile.

28:14That's kind of the sweet spot. Pensacola is kind of in the middle there. And the new forecast from the Hurricane Center comes out in roughly about 25 to 30 minutes from right now. And I think they're going to shift this a little bit more to the east. I'll explain why in a second. So you can already see some of the rain here well north of the system. It's a small, tight storm. It's not a huge storm. So the only areas that are going to be hit by the high storm surge and the really intense winds will be right where the center is when it comes on shore. The Hurricane Center does have it still increasing in intensity.

28:42And then tomorrow, right before landfall beginning of the weekend, There's a lot of questions with what the intensity will be at landfall. I think worst case scenario would be Category 2. Best case would be like a strong tropical storm. So everyone's kind of preparing for at least a one or a two. And if we get a tropical storm, then, you know, thank you. We'd be happy for it. Then on Saturday, the storm really weakens rapidly as it moves up through Alabama. We still, though, could see some high wind gusts and power outages. So our computer models have shifted a little bit. The black line is the 11 a.m.

29:10forecast from the Hurricane Center. Remember, the next one's about 30 minutes. A lot of our computer models, these are our old traditional models, were more to the left towards Mississippi and Alabama. Now they're shifting a little bit more towards the border there with Alabama and in Florida. And our most accurate one so far with this storm has been our AI model, our Google DeepMind, they call it. It produces these forecasts about every six hours. And the blue lines are all what we call their ensembles, so they rerun it over and over with little, little changes. And they're all saying more towards the Florida panhandle, so that's why we're thinking that forecast could change.

29:40So the biggest issue is right of the center, storm surge, five to seven feet will cause some damage. We don't worry about high tide and low tide so much in the northern Gulf Coast. It only changes by about a foot. This is the wind gusts, so the highest winds, which could be 70 plus, maybe isolated, getting into the 90 range. That's where we could see some widespread power outages, a lot of trees and dense trees and forest down here in southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. So that's why we have widespread power outages for you. And then we'll call it scattered in every area to the orange.

30:10And we also have to worry about tornadoes, too. That's going to be an issue at landfall right through tomorrow night into early Saturday morning. And the area of greatest risk is going to push into Georgia and maybe even as far east as Tallahassee. So, Kristen, still some changes and tweaks with this storm. It will not be like a huge major hurricane that's going to take weeks to recover from. But there's going to be a lot of people without power, and there will be some significant damage, especially wherever the center makes landfall. Well, tornado risk certainly sounds ominous. Bill, thank you very much.

30:39We really appreciate it. Coming up next, Vote Watch. NBC News goes one on one with Georgia's secretary of state about securing the vote in a battleground state that has been ground zero for the president's efforts to sow doubts about the legitimacy of elections. That interview is next. Stay with us on Meet the Press Now.

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32:36Welcome back. We want to turn now to the issue of election security as state and local officials look to combat misinformation amid President Trump's ongoing efforts to cast doubt on the legitimacy of the midterm results if his party loses. In Battleground, Georgia, for example, election administrators are pushing back, assuring voters their ballots will be securely and accurately counted in November. It follows calls earlier this month by Georgia's Republican-controlled election board for the Department of Justice to declare the state's voting machines illegal. Georgia is home to some major races this cycle, where Democratic incumbent Senator John Ossoff is being challenged by Republican Congressman Mike Collins.

33:18And former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms and healthcare businessman Rick Jackson are facing off to succeed term-limited Republican Governor Brian Kemp. Joining me now is NBC News senior reporter Jane Tim. Jane, thanks so much for being here. So you had a one on one interview with Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, who people, of course, remember, had that phone call in 2021 with President Trump, where he asked him to find 11000 votes. What did he tell you about these questions right now about possible intervention by the federal government in November's election? Yeah, Kristen, Secretary Raffensperger is laser focused on trying to increase trust in the election ahead of the midterms.

33:58With everything the president is saying, he is dodging many of those questions and talking just about how secure he believes Georgia's elections are. He has very little patience for the state election board, which has been since he actually used to sit on that board, but was removed from it after that 2021 phone call. It is a bit of censure for not helping the president when he asked for help to essentially overturn the results of the election. So he said at times that this board was sitting around and wasting people's times. They have been very conspiratorial in many of their meetings recently, advancing conspiracy theories about the election.

34:37But I pressed him on the idea that essentially there's a state agency inviting the federal government to come in and take over their elections. Let's play a little bit of what he told me. The state election board is also inviting the federal government to come intervene in your elections. How do you feel about that? Well, bless their hearts. Have you spoken with President Trump since that phone call about the 11 ,000 voters? No, he hasn't called. And I have no reason to bother him and pester him. He's a busy man. He's got a lot on his plate. That's a big job. You know, I wish him the very best because he's our president.

35:18that. Secretary Raffensperger is loathe to get into any sort of tiff with the president, but he's determined to defend our elections. He is driving all around the state this week, going to different logic and accuracy testing. That's how you test to make sure the election equipment works properly. He is determined to just bring facts to this conversation in hopes that it will drown out some of the conspiracy theories. Well, it's a great get and a great interview, Jane. And I know he also doubled down on voters being able to trust the results of the election. How does he plan to make that happen?

35:55I know you're talking about him driving around the state. Yeah. You know, he's not only talking all the work they have, talking at the work they have already done, like checking, doing citizenship audits, checking everything they possibly can, strengthening the rules around their elections. Georgia has some very strict election rules that They say they balance with a lot of early voting and other ways. They try and make it easy and quick to vote with short lines. But he also says that, you know, they're just going to do everything they possibly can to make people trust their elections, including quite a lot of audits.

36:30Let's play some more sound from that interview. My job isn't to make sure that the Republicans win or the Democrats win. My job is to make sure the winner wins. and you're just going to have to accept the facts because at the end of the day we're going to beat you to death with audits 20 risk-limiting audits most states don't do any maybe they'll do one or two we're going to do 20 here in georgia we want to make sure you can just really trust the results yeah and half the people are going to be happy and the other half are going to be disappointed and i'm hoping you know if i take off my secretary state hat as a conservative republic I love when my team wins, but we don't win every single race.

37:12But we know that we have correct and accurate results. And that's the job of the Office of Secretary of State. Secretary Raffensperger was also at one point asked whether or not, you know, what he would do if the president again calls him after this election. He said, I'm going to give him the results, give him the data. This is him. He is rattling off data points and doing everything he possibly can to get people to understand just how much work and security goes into Georgia's elections. Well, it's a fascinating conversation. Congratulations on a great get. Jane, Tim, thank you so very much for that important information.

37:50We really appreciate it. Coming up after the break, how much can you trust the polls? We'll take a look at the numbers behind one of the most polarizing questions each election cycle. Keep it right here on Meet the Press Now.

38:10Welcome back. It's a question that politicians and strategists grapple with in the final stretch of every election season. And this time is no different. How much can you trust the polls with 26 days to go? Let's get some insights. Joining me now at the big board is our senior national political reporter Sahil Kapoor. Sahil, so you have a look at how polling matched up with election results in the past years. What are you learning from it? That's right, Kristen. With just a few weeks to go, it's a question on everybody's mind right now. How accurate are the polls? Can we trust the polls? It's a very understandable question.

38:41What I'm going to do is look back at every election cycle over the last decade since Trump came on the scene, and we'll look at how well the polls have actually done relative to the result. On the left side of the screen, you see the national popular vote in each election. On the right side, you're going to see the polling error or the polling miss starting out backwards. From 2024, the result, Trump wins by a point and a half, sweeps back into the White House. What did the polls say? The polls overstated how Democrats would do, how well they would do by a 2.7 point margin. They expected Democrats to do 2.7 points better than they did.

39:14That's a polling miss of 2.7. How about the 2022 midterm election? The result, Republicans win nationally by 2.7. How do the polls do? Pretty well. They overstated Republicans this time by only 0.6 points. In other words, expected Republicans to do 0.6 points better than they actually did. A pretty decent night for the polls in 2022. How about the 2020 presidential election? Joe Biden wins nationally by four and a half points. How do the polls do that cycle? Not well at all. They overstated the Democratic strength by 4.6 points. In other words, they expected this result to be closer to 9.1. This was COVID 2020.

39:53Pollsters had a really hard time measuring the electorate. Response rates of Democrats went way up. response rates of Republicans, not so much. It was not a great year for the polls. What about 2018? The midterm elections. Democrats win in this blue wave. The result by 8.6 nationally. How did the polls do? Pretty much nailed it. Only 0.1 points overstated. They expected this to be 8.7. It was 8.6. A very, very good night for the polls in 2018. What about 2016? This bar is blue because Hillary Clinton won the popular vote by 2.1. What did the polls say? They overstated how well Democrats would do.

40:32By 3.1, they expected this to be closer to 5.2. And if the polls were closer to accurate, she would have won the Electoral College and become president. This was another polling miss. Now let's try to make sense of all of this. These are the three presidential elections when Donald Trump has been on the ballot. You see the trend here. Polling misses each time. 3.1 in 2016. You see 4.6 and less of a polling error, but still a polling error. Interestingly, 2020 was the biggest polling error of the last decade. The polls were even more wrong in 2020 than 2016, if you look at the margin. Those are the presidential years.

41:06Now look at the midterm years. Look at that. Look how accurate the polls were in the midterm elections. Pretty much nailed it in 2018. Very close to nailing it in 2022. Less than a point off. I bring this up, Kristen, because this is a midterm year. These are the two reference points in what we should be looking at in trying to judge how accurate the polls are going to be. What do the polls say now in terms of what we're looking at in the final stretch? Democrats lead by nine points. The polling averages I showed you were in the last two weeks, so this number could change. But if the polls continue to be as accurate this cycle as they have historically been in the midterms over the last decade, then we should expect the number to be within one point of this.

41:48Should be a very good night for Democrats if this holds. Sahil, just fascinating to see, particularly the bar charts, really tells the tale. What is the theory of the case, Sahil? Why are midterm polls more reliable generally? It's an excellent question, Kristen, one that pollsters have studied. And the simple reason is presidential election years tend to turn out a much bigger electorate, including lots of low propensity voters who are not that dialed into politics, who are less likely to answer polls and talk to pollsters. But they do show up at presidential elections. and what Trump has been uniquely effective at doing when he's on the ballot is turning out a certain type of low propensity MAGA voter who is less likely to answer the polls but will show up when he's on the ballot.

42:31That has not happened in midterm elections back in 2018. He told voters, I'm on the ticket, show up for me. It didn't work. 2022, the polls are very close to accurate in the midterm elections. So fundamentally, midterm elections are full of high propensity voters. The electorate tends to be more predictable. Again, none of this is a prediction. This is just a historical fact of how well the polls have done. Once again, the reference number right now is nine points. Democrats lead. This number could change. It could very much change. But historically, the midterm polls have been very accurate, much more so than presidential elections.

43:05Kristen. It is just a fascinating look at the polling over the years. Sahil, thank you so much for that. We really appreciate it. And still to come, follow the money. One top Trump administration official responds to new Wall Street Journal reporting alleging Kimberly Guilfoyle pressed a donor to pay her$100 ,000 credit card bill prior to getting confirmed as U.S. ambassador to Greece. The panel digs into this next on Meet the Press Now.

43:40Welcome back. Secretary of State Marco Rubio is lashing out at reports over Wall Street Journal reporting about Kimberly Guilfoyle, the U.S. ambassador to Greece. The journal reporting Guilfoyle in the run up to her confirmation hearing reached out to a Trump donor to request one hundred thousand dollars. She owed American Express in a way that wouldn't leave a paper trail. According to that reporting, the donor never made the payment. The Wall Street Journal says its reporting is based on hundreds of messages, emails and letters it reviewed. A lawyer for Guilfoyle told the journal his client disputed the authenticity of the messages but would not provide specifics.

44:19Secretary of State Marco Rubio was asked about that reporting earlier today while traveling in Athens. Yeah, guys, let me tell you something, OK? You guys are going to ask me this. You're going to ask me again in Portugal. I know the game, OK? The game is someone gives information to a newspaper or a media outlet. The media outlet reports it. You immediately turn to me and say, I need you to respond to our reporting. That's not the way this process works. We don't conduct these things in a press conference on a tarmac in a foreign country because you wrote a story or somebody else wrote a story because some source gave it to you.

44:48So get that out of your head because that's never the way it's going to work with me. It's a game that's been played for a long time, but it's not a game we're going to play. Joining me now is our panel, Tia Mitchell, Washington Bureau Chief for the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, former Democratic congressman from New York, Joe Crowley, and president and executive editor of The Daily Signal, Rob Luey. Thanks to all of you for being here. Really appreciate it. Tia, let me start with you. And what do you make of this Kimberly Guilfoyle matter? Does does it have any traction or have any implications right now, particularly as we're less than a month out from the midterms?

45:23Let me tell you why how we know it has traction. The fact that nothing that Marco Rubio just said, said this is a nothing burger. Why are you going after her? I'm not concerned at all. He said, hey, I'm not ready to talk about that. And that means that there's something that they're looking into. I think on the face of it, it looks really bad. It looks like what the concerns about pay to play becoming a prominent part of the Trump administration. This is going to be yet another example that people will point to when they talk about that and that money buys you access to the president and the people in his orbit.

45:59orbit. Rob, given the questions swirling around what may or may not have happened, should Republicans come out, should the president come out and say, let's have an independent investigation, see what happened here? If the story is true, absolutely. There needs to be a further investigation. I think what you're hearing from people like Secretary of State Rubio, Vice President Vance, who was asked about it, they're saying they need to get to the bottom of it. I mean, Vice President Vance was pretty clear that he didn't like the looks of this. And if you read that story, I mean, it is quite, It has quite a few implications, including the actual signal messages, screenshots of them in which Kimberly Guilfoyle was communicating with this particular individual from Kentucky.

46:38And so, yeah, it's it seems like it's it's a story that Republicans don't particularly want in the headlines this close to an election. The screenshots are just extraordinary. Congressman Crowley, I want to ask you, because broadly speaking, the issue of corruption has been one that has been discussed in this midterm election. I want to show a recent poll conducted this month that found that 18 percent of registered voters called government corruption the most important issue facing the country. That was the second highest share of any issue behind 28 percent of voters who said inflation and the cost of living was the most important.

47:13Now, people's interpretations of what that means will vary by party. But do you think that Democrats should be making a big deal about this? Do you think it has traction or should they stay focused on affordability? I think affordability has been the number one issue, but certainly, you know, talking about the corruption within this White House, particularly as it pertains to the children of the president. Now, Guilfoyle has a relation, had a relationship with President Trump's son, Don Jr. She got a consolation prize because she didn't get the ring on the finger. And she got Greece, a very important country in Europe, and especially given what's happening in Turkey, what's happening in the Middle East, etc.

47:54So and to some degree, I think Americans are almost kind of, you know, blunted by all this because there's been so much of it. It's just another thing to add on to it. But I think he is right that in the sense that he is right that in the sense that, you know, this is going to be just another issue, especially in the last month of a campaign that they have to defend themselves on. Yeah, it's the timing. Certainly. Yeah, I was I was going to say, I think it cuts across both parties. I think there's frustration, for instance, among Republicans and conservatives that I talk to that the Trump administration hasn't been more aggressive in holding people accountable and the promises that they made.

48:31And obviously, certainly Democrats feel the same way about the Trumps and the family. And that's probably a reason why the Democrats are making some noise about that leading into this election. And I just want to make one more quick point about how candidates, John Ossoff being one who does this pretty well, he he connects the perceived corruption to the economy question that he knows is top of mind for voters. So he says, you know, the Trump administration, Trump and his allies are so focused on enriching themselves and enriching their friends. Meanwhile, they're letting you, you know, suffer and they're not speaking to your concerns.

49:05So that is another way that even issues like this, I'm sure they'll find themselves on the campaign trail in the talking points of Democrats. The Federalist Papers always said that our government will be prone to corruption. Humankind is prone to corruption and no party has, you know, a sole party. But I think in this particular case, in the context, the corruption at the White House, whether it's taking down the East Wing without any due process, all those things have heirs of corruption to them. Yeah. Well, let's talk about one of the big races that we're all watching, Texas. President Trump campaigning in Texas.

49:40And he did something really interesting to you. He took to social media to call for basically Tallarico to debate with Ken Paxton. I'm going to read a little bit of what he said. He says he, Tallarico, should immediately report to a debate stage against Ken Paxton, who's ready, willing and able, one of the best attorney generals in the country and will soon be hopefully a United States senator representing the great people of Texas. James Tallarico responded. President Trump just said Ken Paxton should debate. I agree. Ball's in your court. The challenge is they have been offered debates. Tallarico has accepted.

50:14Ken Paxton hasn't. Is it an indication the president and Paxton are not necessarily on the same page here? I mean, definitely that messaging was off because as you were reading the true social post, I'm thinking to myself, I don't think it's Tallarico who doesn't want to debate. And so, you know, I think, quite frankly, the president's right. A lot of voters are getting frustrated that people who perceive to have the upper hand in a race are declining to debate their opponents in the general election. And that cuts across party lines. It's not just incumbents. It's others who just feel like, you know, what's the point of giving my opponent a platform, quite frankly?

50:52And I don't think it serves the American people well. I think now, though, with Trump saying they should debate now, can Paxton, you know, it's going to look a little weak if he continues to avoid debating. Rob, how do you see this? Yeah. Well, I mean, if that previous segment on polling was was accurate, I mean, it seems that in this case, Paxton's the underdog. And so I think in a debate, it might actually help him in this case. Do you think he should debate? Absolutely. I mean, that Texas race is very tight. Now, it could go the same way that Beto O 'Rourke went. There was a lot of excitement and enthusiasm the Democrats had for him.

51:23And maybe Tallarico follows that same path. I don't know. We'll find out in a few weeks. But yeah, I think right now is the time for Paxton to definitely lean in, especially since Republicans are pouring so much money into that state. I think also comparing it to the Beto O 'Rourke situation, Beto wasn't facing someone that was, you know, as corrupt or perceived to be as corrupt as Paxton is. And so I think that that's the big difference here. The Pax himself is just a really bad candidate right now. Whether the president thinks he's one of the greatest attorney generals to have a live or not right now, it's not not that he's not the candidate you want to be up there right now.

51:57Rob, what do you make of that argument? Well, I mean, that that leech recording came out about Paxson complaining about the war in Iran. A lot of leech audio. There seems to be at the convention in Texas. Yeah. October surprises. And that's why I think, as I've told you before, Kristen, I think that it's important for Republicans to point to the successes they have. And certainly Texas is one state where you've heard it from Greg Abbott. They've been able to cut property taxes. They've been able to expand education options for kids. So, I mean, there are some things that he could point to in his role.

52:26Congressman, James Tallarico has been off the campaign trail. He has the flu. He's had it for about 12 days. President Trump to social media to basically poke fun at him over this. the timing. He's still joining events virtually, but could this hurt him? Look, I think you always want your candidate to be healthy and out on the field. But I also think that it is an early flu season. I think many, many people are getting the flu. And having said that, I think people have already made up their minds in this election. I think there are very few people who are yet to be determined as to where they're going to vote.

53:02And so I do think that, you know, It's unfortunate, but he'll survive it. All right. Well, hopefully he'll be back and better and out on the campaign trail soon. Thank you all for a fantastic conversation. Really appreciate it. Tia, Joe and Rob. Catch up on everything you need to know before Election Day, from the key races to watch to where voters stand on the issues by streaming our NBC News special report, Decision 2026, Battle for Control of Congress. Just scan the QR code on your screen. We are back tomorrow with more Meet the Press Now. Now there's much more ahead on NBC News Now.

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