Oct. 18 — Pres. Zelenskyy, Sec. Scott Bessent, Sen. Raphael Warnock and Sen. James Lankford

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1:00Kristen Welker: This Sunday, hard sell. With just 16 days until the midterms, President Trump barnstorms the country in a final push for Republicans as inflation rises and control of Congress hangs in the balance. That war is going to end very soon and when it does, your prices are going to come tumbling down. They already are. We need to lower gas prices in this country. We need to lower diesel prices, but I don't think we need to be making a deal with Russia to do it. I know that you're struggling just to keep food on the table, a roof above your head, and keep gas in your tank. I'll talk to Treasury Secretary Scott Besson, Democratic Senator Raphael Warnock, and Republican Senator James Lankford, plus Steve Kornacki with our new decision desk poll.

1:43Kristen Welker: And betrayed. President Trump suspends sweeping new sanctions against Russia just weeks after signing them into law as Putin continues his deadly attacks on Ukraine. We hope that President, his team will be on our side. I'll talk exclusively to Ukrainian President Zelensky, who says he feels betrayed by President Trump. Plus, Musk money. Elon Musk pours millions into the fight for Texas. Can his money help Republicans hold the seat? Joining me for insight and analysis are NBC News senior Washington correspondent Hallie Jackson, former Biden White House senior advisor Steve Verschetti, and Lonnie Chen, a fellow at the Hoover Institution.

2:27Kristen Welker: Welcome to Sunday. It's Meet the Press. From NBC News in Washington, the longest running show in television history. This is Meet the Press with Kristen Welker. Good Sunday morning. With just 16 days until the midterms, the political map is now shifting. The Cook Political Report has moved 11 more House races toward Democrats. as Republicans face growing voter frustration over the economy. NBC News chief data analyst Steve Kornacki is here with me at the big board with the results of our brand new NBC News decision desk poll. Steve, quite a snapshot 16 days out. Yeah, Kristen, what you're seeing is the climate that's propelling the shifts you're talking about there.

3:11So first of all, the big picture question here, Trump's approval rating, our decision desk poll. Again, this is registered voters here. Bit of a wider net than you see in other polls out there right now, but 39 percent here. The approval rating, and again, this continues to be the story, asking, do you approve of Trump on inflation here? Only 31 percent, 34 percent in Iran. He does do better when it comes to immigration, but voters saying that it's more inflation, it's the economy, it's cost of living. That's more front and center to them than immigration, than some of the other issues, and he's got very low numbers right there.

3:43Also seeing this, the generic ballot here. Which party would you like to see control Congress? The advantage in this decision desk poll here for Democrats is nine points there. If you went back to Trump's first midterm in 2018, bad one for Republicans. It was a tick under that. So nine right now. They're getting toward the high side for Democrats. Very alarming for Republicans. And again, what's driving this? You're asking folks your financial situation. Compare it to a year ago. How is it? 44 percent saying worse now than a year ago. By the way, among independents, outright majority, 53 percent say worse now than a year ago.

4:20Again, gets to that climate here. Gas prices two thirds here in this poll saying this is a serious problem. The cost of gas, the cost of fuel for them and for their family. This is interesting, too, I thought, Kristen, though, within what we think of as the president's base among Republicans in this poll. Look at the difference here among those who call themselves MAGA Republicans. His approval rating is still 93 percent. It's not bad. among those who say, no, I'm more of a traditional Republican, 63. And compare this to a year ago. Look at this. The MAGA number is not moving that much. This number is.

4:55And the other thing picking up here in the poll, how do you identify yourself? We're asking Republicans, do you call yourself a MAGA Republican or a traditional Republican? Look at how the balance has shifted. It's now 56 percent who say traditional Republican. Look what the number was in 2025. The majority was on the MAGA side. So that shifted to we do say, though, and on a note of caution here, a note of uncertainty. We showed you that generic ballot here, but break it down this way, asking folks, well, you definitely vote in the midterm. There's a motivation edge here for Democrats. They lead by 12 on the generic ballot with definitely.

5:26That's about 80 percent of the folks in the poll. But those who say probably or no, and believe it or not, some folks who say no in a poll do end up voting. The Republicans have the advantage with those who are not sure they're going to be voting right now. So the more Republicans succeed in expanding the electorate there, they might be able to bring that generic ballot down some.

5:45Kristen Welker: Important note of caution there, Steve. Fascinating findings. Really appreciate your being here to break it all down. For more expert analysis on the midterms all season long, you can subscribe to the Data Dive with Steve Kornacki. His weekly newsletter out every Tuesday at NBC News dot com slash data dive. Meanwhile, on the campaign trail this weekend, as Americans struggle with rising prices, President Trump lashing out at those blaming him for the cost of living. And then they hit me with the word. They said affordability, affordability. In other words, like it was my fault. I just got there.

6:25And they've been hitting me with that word for the last year. Every time something's a little high.

6:31Kristen Welker: Joining me now is Democratic Senator Raphael Warnock of Georgia. Senator Warnock, welcome back to Meet the Press. Great to be here with you. Well, good Sunday morning to you. Appreciate your being here. 16 days to go, Senator. I know you have been out on the campaign trail campaigning for Democratic candidates in deep red states, typically South Carolina, Mississippi. be. Do you believe that Democrats can win in these states or are you just trying to make these races competitive, Senator? Let's be clear. Democrats can absolutely win in these states. In fact, the road to a Democratic majority in both houses of Congress is in the South.

7:17I spent the last week moving through North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Mississippi. When you look at these states, when you look at a state like Texas, the South will have an outsized role in determining who has the majority. And I worry, to be very honest, that Democrats are missing a real opportunity to invest in a serious and sustained way in the South. If we would just lean in and stay in through the election and after the election, the kind of victory you saw us achieve here in Georgia, it is achievable in a place like Mississippi and all across the South.

7:59Kristen Welker: All right. Well, we'll continue to track your travels. I want to talk about the agenda. If, for example, Democrats win back the House, as you know, one of the big debates is what should be at the top of the agenda. Should Democrats move to impeach President Trump for a third time? Where do you stand on this, Senator? Do you believe Democrats should impeach President Trump? should they win back the House of Representatives? Listen, Donald Trump is a crook and he's got to go. And the people who are enabling him, they all have to be held accountable. And so we ought to have the investigations to get to the truth behind the most corrupt administration in American history.

8:42At the same time, we have to walk and chew gum at the same time. Americans are being crushed under these costs, which are connected to his corruption. And so we have to end this war, stop the tariffs, fix health care, and then lay out for the American people a vision that embraces all of us.

8:59Kristen Welker: Well, on that debate, as you know, there are some of your Democratic colleagues, Senator Brian Schatz, Tammy Duckworth, who are worried that impeachment could actually backfire. Do you believe that impeachment would backfire against Democrats, Senator? Listen, I can tell you that this corruption is crushing the American people. The American people are watching themselves get poorer and poorer, while Donald Trump, his family, his friends are getting richer and richer. He's he's four billion dollars richer than he was when he entered office. And meanwhile, people are crushed under these gas prices, crushed under the price of groceries.

9:44I noticed in your earlier sound there he was saying they hit him with affordability. This is a problem with Donald Trump. It's always about Donald Trump. He's the one being hit. Well, he should talk to my constituents. They're being hit by his awful policies. policies. I can't think of a time in my lifetime when you could draw such a straight line between the policies in the White House and the economic pain that people are feeling in their houses. And so we have to deal with the cost and we have to deal with the corruption, and the American people deserve no less.

10:18Kristen Welker: I know you're headed to Michigan next week. There's a big Senate race there between Abdul Al-Sayed and Mike Rogers. Al-Sayed's primary challenger, Haley Stevens, who, of course, lost to Al-Sayed, did carry Michigan counties with large black populations. She said this. She said that Rogers, quote, is working the black community harder and more successfully than we have ever seen a Republican do or at least that I can remember ever. Senator, what do you think Al-Sayed needs to do in order to win over black voters? Listen, black voters are suffering like all of our voters, like the American people in general.

11:02It is in our best interest to make sure that Abdul Al-Sayed wins this election. We are witnessing a president, Donald Trump, along with his henchmen and the extreme court, gerrymander black voters, especially in the South. Michigan voters have a role to play in that because they are trying to diminish our voices. And so I'll be in Michigan this week campaigning. We've got to turn out our whole coalition.

11:33Kristen Welker: OK, let me ask you, because your friend, your colleague, your fellow Georgia Senator John Ossoff made a little bit of news this week. He said he has zero interest in running for president. Senator, do you rule out a run for president in 2028? Be very clear, I am sharply focused on the midterm elections. This is a deeply consequential election. We've got to put some guardrails on this president. And John Ossoff and I are aligned on this issue. There's nothing more important than defeating his pathetic opponent, Mike Collins. We've got to win victories in the House and the Senate. And I remain sharply focused on that.

12:19Kristen Welker: All right. I don't hear you ruling it out. I'll have you back to discuss it further. Thank you so much, Senator Raphael Warnock. Really appreciate it. Good to be here with you. Good to have you this Sunday. And joining me now is Republican Senator James Lankford of Oklahoma. Senator Lankford, welcome back to Meet the Press. Good Sunday morning to you. Good Sunday morning to you. Thank you for being here. I want to start with the midterm elections. This month, we heard North Carolina Republican Senator Tom Tillis predict, quote, an electoral bloodbath for your party in November. Senator, do you believe Republicans are going to hold on to the Senate?

13:01I do, actually. Let's let everybody vote. We've got two and a half weeks at this point. There's all kinds of predictions and polls and everything that are out there. But let's everybody vote right now.

13:11Kristen Welker: What gives you your confidence they're going to hold on to the Senate when you have these close races in Texas, Michigan? The list goes on and on. So if I go back to, let's say, two years ago at this same time period, NBC News polls, I just heard the great report from Steve Gronacki there to be a walkthrough. But NBC News reported two years ago that Kamala Harris was up by five points in late September, that Dave McCormick was going to lose and that Democrats were going to win the House. None of those things actually occurred. This is that wonderful time that Americans experience right before an election where everybody's talking about what might happen.

13:49Only God knows what actually will happen. But every single voter needs to show up to actually vote. Elections are about who actually shows up and votes. Polls are about what Americans feel, but the actual elections are about what Americans feel that actually vote. So those Americans that show up and vote, they actually determine the outcome.

14:08Kristen Welker: All right. Well, I want to turn to Ukraine. President Trump, as you know, made some headlines. He waived part of the newly passed Lindsey Graham Sanctions Act against Russia this week. Your colleague John Cornyn said the late Senator Graham would be, quote, appalled. Senator, you urged Congress to pass this law in Senator Graham's memory. Do you agree with President Trump's decision to lift these sanctions? So the president has the ability under the statute to be able to look at national interest. And he came back and he said, our gas prices are very high right now. The sanctions are specifically targeted on energy.

14:45He's trying to walk this fine balance between trying to be able to put pressure on Russia, but also to be able to help the American people. So he is choosing the American people first is what he's doing. If anyone's shocked that this president's focused on American voters first, they should have listened to him in the last several years. He is very focused on that. But at the same time, the president is sharing intelligence information with the Ukrainians. He is providing weapons systems to the Ukrainians. He's put other sanctions on Russian oil companies. So the pressure is on Russia from this president.

15:19And so any belief that President Trump is aligning with President Putin is not true. He's trying to get both of them to the table, but he is definitely providing continual support to the Ukrainians.

15:29Kristen Welker: Well, I guess the question is how much pressure is he putting on Russia? I want to read part of a statement you made in 2022, just weeks after the Russian invasion. You said during this moment of crisis, the United States should work to dramatically ramp up energy production to strengthen our allies and to cut off the flow of money into Putin's war machine. Russia's economy is heavily dependent on energy sales. We should make sure that immediately dries up. To borrow your words, is the U.S. flowing money to Putin's war machine? So we do not need to buy any of Putin's oil. In fact, that 2022 law that I strongly supported prevented any purchase of Russian oil coming into the United States until there is peace between Ukraine and Russia.

16:16So that law still holds true on it. But at the same time, we've got to focus on what we can do to put pressure on Russia to get at the table as well as Ukraine. As you know, I'm a big believer in trying to be able to produce more American energy. I said that in that quote 2022. I believe it now. The challenge that we have on prices right now is the three top producers in the world for diesel is the United States, is Russia, and what happens in the Gulf region. Those are the three top regions. We've got wars in two of those. And my Democratic colleagues are doing everything they can to shut down production in the United States of diesel.

16:51Just in the past year, California has closed two diesel refineries, which is dramatically increasing the prices of diesel, the price of diesel in California, but also affecting the quantities across the entire country. So while President Trump is trying to increase the availability of diesel, Democrats are complaining about high prices while at the same time trying to be able to shut down refineries. So we need to be able to have our own refineries here in the United States. That's a big issue for us to be able to make sure we can provide our American security and not have Democrats actually shutting down refineries here and then blaming Republicans for actually high prices.

17:26Kristen Welker: Senator, while that may be true, I mean, we do have to acknowledge that prices went up after the president started that war with Iran. People are seeing that at the gas pump as well. But let me ask you, President Trump said this week he finds President Zelensky more difficult to deal with than President Putin. He did strike that oil deal with President Putin. Do you think with these moves, the president is siding with Putin? How do you answer those who say that? No, pretty clear the president's siding with the free people of Ukraine. That is our ally. Again, he's providing intelligence. He's put sanctions on Russian oil companies.

18:02He continues to provide weapons to Ukraine. Senator, respectfully, Ukraine doesn't feel that way necessarily.

18:10Kristen Welker: And President Zelensky has been pretty clear he disagrees with these moves by President Trump. Sure. Sure. President Trump is trying to get both sides of the table to be able to negotiate. Russia is clearly the aggressor here. They're clearly attacking the power grid for the Ukrainians, trying to freeze them out this winter. But you can ask President Zelensky how many billions of dollars the American people have put in to be able to help him through this time period and what we have done to provide intelligence and other things. I understand that they don't always agree every day on everything, but it's clear we have been providing aid to them the last five years.

18:46We'll continue to do that.

18:48Kristen Welker: All right. Senator James Lankford, thank you so very much for joining us. We really appreciate it. You bet. Glad to do it. Keep praying for the nation. Thank you, Senator. And when we come back, my interview with the president of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky.

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20:41Kristen Welker: Welcome back. And joining me now is the president of Ukraine, Vladimir Zelensky. President Zelensky, welcome back to Meet the Press.

20:52Thanks so much. Hello. Good morning.

20:55Kristen Welker: What are the implications of President Trump waiving sanctions for Russia? What's the impact?

21:07Strengthening Putin's war against us because he feels success. He doesn't have any kind of success on the battlefield, especially this year, 2026. He lost opportunities on the battlefield and all his operations, he lost. So we're not successful and because of our army and they've been very strong. Our soldiers have been very strong this year. Then we really build, try to build air defense shield to defend our civilians, but always big deficit with Patriot missiles and other kind of air defense. But in any way, it's understandable that we have something. We have support of Americans, have support from Europeans.

22:04But now I think that this, you know, it's really big support for Putin. He fills victory with sanctions. And this little deal and then startling between us. We have to be very honest. So we are always thankful by partisan support, but with Starlink it's not the support. Really, I mean, for today, it's more supportive for Russian aggression, especially for their strikes against our civilians, against our energy projects. And we are afraid that the question of Russian gas will be raised and also the question of frozen assets. And that's why we say that it's very dangerous. This diesel deal is very dangerous.

22:58It doesn't have influence on the real influence on the price in the United States. We understand that the price is because of blocking of Hormuz, Strait of Hormuz.

23:10Kristen Welker: I do want to talk about Starlink, which is Elon Musk's satellite internet network with a military version called Starshield. Who do you think specifically is to blame for the disruptions to the Starlink and the Starshield services? Do you think it was a deliberate interruption?

23:35Of course, the message came from government. I don't know from whom, what cabinets and et cetera. And I think it doesn't work either way, but I don't know really. But we think it's not my opinion. It's opinion of our generals, of our government. And of course, my also opinion, the same, that it was the message from American government to limit this pit. And technically, SpaceX did it.

24:03Kristen Welker: And has the system been fully restored? What's the status right now, President Zelensky? No. No. Not, of course. We have a limitation. The speed is maximum 161 kilometers. Let me ask you, because there are reports that the U.S. has cut off intelligence sharing with Ukraine. Is that accurate? Has the United States cut off intelligence sharing with Ukraine? It was blocked for some period of time. And then it was de-blocked by American side. We are very thankful for this. Now it works. Yeah. And now it works. Yeah. How long was it blocked and what were the implications of U.S. intelligence sharing being blocked from your perspective, President Zelensky?

25:02So we didn't see attacks of Russia using ballistic missiles. Other information we've got from other intelligence from Europeans and other partners, we have dozens of countries who help, but only United States has this unique intelligence to say, to tell us, to tell our side when Russia uses ballistic missiles. And we didn't get it during ballistic attacks during three days.

25:40Kristen Welker: OK. Let me ask you big picture about your relationship with President Trump. He has made a number of recent statements about you and your relationship. I want to play some of what he has said and get your reaction on the other side. Take a listen. No, I'm not a big fan of Zelensky. I find Zelensky to be more difficult to deal with than Putin. The president says you are more difficult to deal with than Putin. What is your reaction to that?

26:18I'm very honest with the President of the United States and very clear and very supportive America because we are strategic partners. This is the kind of relations I understand and I respect. But I can't applause any decisions or any words of one or another leader if they go against Ukraine, if they are supported for Russia and directly for Putin. He's a killer. That's why I'm very honest and open to say that he's a killer. And that's why maybe it's not very polite and maybe not the things what President of the United States waits for me. But I'm better to have partners who are very open and clear than to have those who are killers, even with a smile on their face.

27:21Kristen Welker: Do you trust President Trump?

27:26Of course, we trust America. We trust bipartisan support. And we trust President of the United States. We want to trust him. And I hope that he will change his decisions. Because I think that it's all mistakes. And it will not help us. And it will not help the United States, I'm sure. But, I mean, it's not my choice. And I hope that he will change his decisions, change his attitude to Putin. We waited from the very beginning of his presidential term that he will change his attitude to Putin. For us, it's important and essential, absolutely. People, I mean, people want to forget what's going on.

28:19But we can't give this possibility to forget or to change reality or to change the truth. We never and it's not we can't compare with Russia. We can't compare me and Putin. He's aggressor. He's occupied. He occupied us. He killed adults and children. He is soldiers. He's a terrorist. And that's why I hope that President Trump will be very clear with this position. I hope so.

28:51Kristen Welker: Do you still believe President Trump is an ally of the United of Ukraine?

28:59I hope so. I hope so. Yeah.

29:04Kristen Welker: Can Ukraine win this war without the United States, President Zelensky?

29:13very difficult you know it's i mean this it's it's all about losses it's true it's not about prevail or not prevail it's all about it's about our people if it's without united states support It's very difficult. But if United States will support Putin, I mean, it's unbelievable. It's tragedy. It's historic mistake and big tragedy. That's why I think that I don't want to live in illusions, but I think that we have to be pragmatic. If the United States will take officially, will take the side of Russia, of course, if these two countries will be together, of course, of course, we will not prevail and we will not be able to stand.

30:06It's understandable. That's why we hope that President, his team will be on our side, minimum in the middle. All right.

30:17Kristen Welker: President Zelensky, thank you so very much for your time today. We really appreciate it. And you can watch our full interview at meetthepress.com. When we come back, Treasury Secretary Scott Besson joins me next. Ever notice how every new AI tool asks you to explain your business to it all over again? Google Workspace with Gemini skips that. You get Google's AI built right into the premium versions of Gmail, Docs, Sheets, and more. No new tools. No extra logins. Just one subscription that gives you personalized AI right inside your actual workflow. Make work less work. Try Google Workspace with Gemini at goo.gle slash workspace with Gemini.

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32:04Kristen Welker: Welcome back. Joining me now is Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. Secretary Bessent, welcome back to Meet the Press. Good to be with you. It's great to have you back. Let's start on inflation. These new inflation numbers we got this week, consumer prices rose in September at the fastest pace in five months to 3.7 percent. Are the president's policies driving up inflation? Kristen, we have an energy shock. And if you look underneath the hood in the numbers, the core inflation has been very flat before this month. It had been down for four months in a row. So core inflation is down. The food is below the Fed's targets.

32:44The prescription drugs have had the biggest decrease in history. Rents are down. So this is an energy shock. We will get to the other side of the Iran conflict and those prices will come down.

32:56Kristen Welker: Well, the core inflation doesn't take energy, for example, into account or food into account. And in fact, the price of gas is up 44 percent, Mr. Secretary, since the start of the war with Iran. What do you say to voters right now who say they are struggling and they want change? Well, why don't we revisit the Biden era policies where the American people got smoked, 21.5 percent inflation and only about 17 percent wage increases. Since President Trump has started, the American people have gotten real wage increases, 1.5 percent. We're not satisfied with that. But as I said, we're getting these wage increases through our economic policies and the wage increases are going to be persistent.

33:41We will get to the other side of the Iran conflict. And I believe that the energy markets are going to be better supplied than they were.

33:47Kristen Welker: I hear you blaming President Biden, but President Trump has been in office now for 636 days. That's about a year and a half. And inflation was at 3 % when he took office. It's 3.7 % now. At what point does the administration take responsibility for the economy and say, this is the Trump economy? Well, we will own the economy. We have so far this year, we've got a million private sector jobs. We've never had this many people working in the U.S. The net worth of American households are the highest that it's ever been. So, Kristen, let's be clear here. This is an energy supply side shock. We will get to the other side of this.

34:24This is one factor.

34:26Kristen Welker: Even President Trump has said this is his economy. Let me ask you, though, you are Treasury Secretary. Do you anticipate gas prices will come down by the new year? Well, again, it will depend on what happens with the Iran conflict. OK, let's talk about the war with Ukraine now. President Trump signed an executive order waiving sanctions against Russia. I just talked about this with President Zelensky, who tells me this move is a big support for Putin. Why is the president rewarding a dictator who invaded Ukraine? President Trump has made it clear he wants the killing to stop. And the so-called grand bill gives the president the flexibility, gives him 60 days to assess the situation.

35:11And, Kristen, let's look what's really happening here. That the Europeans have given Russia and Vladimir Putin more money than they've given the Ukrainians. They continue to gorge on Russian energy. There is a facility called the Amal facility. in the first six months of the year, there were 140 cargoes that left. 136 of those went to Europe, to Belgium, to Spain, to France, to the Netherlands, over$8 billion. So we have asked in the spring, I asked our European allies to join us in putting secondary tariffs on China, on India. They refused. So why should the U.S. bear the burden? So President Trump, perhaps we will be in contact with our European partners.

36:00Why should the U.S. go it along, Kristen?

36:02Kristen Welker: Well, I guess the question is, what role should the U.S. play? During your confirmation hearing in January of 2025, you described the war in Ukraine as one of the greatest tragedies in your life. And you had this criticism about the Biden administration's approach to sanctions at the time. Take a listen. I believe that the sanctions were not fulsome enough. I believe that we, I believe that the previous administration was worried about raising U.S. energy prices during an election season. Is President Trump doing what you accused President Biden of doing? First of all, Kristen, the sanctions were doubled.

36:45The Biden administration, in an act of incredible bravery, doubled the sanctions on the way out in January of 2025. So but we did not take those down. President Trump sanctioned the two largest Russian energy companies, Rosneft and Luke Oil, which dealt a catastrophic blow to the Russian energy industry. So no one has been tougher on Russian sanctions than President Trump.

37:12Kristen Welker: But you there are pushing for even tougher sanctions. We did the toughest sanctions. But why lift them now? What has Putin done to deserve sanctions relief now? That's my question. That's not true. No sanctions were lifted on Friday. No sanctions were lifted. There was a law that was supposed to put more sanctions in place. The president effectively waived that. No sanctions were lifted. Will they be lifted? There is a 60-day period, so we can examine what's going on. The only thing that has been lifted is the diesel embargo. And I will point out, the UK in May waived their embargo on diesel and jet fuel made with Russian crude.

38:00So where's the outrage for the rest of the world? President Zelensky does not criticize his European partners. He seemed a bit disassembled in that interview. The Europeans are financing the Russian war machine. The U.S. imports$4 billion of Russian products,$1.8 billion of that is fertilizer. The Europeans import more than 10 times that.

38:25Kristen Welker: You know, speaking of President Zelensky, he says Ukraine will not prevail if the United States sides with Russia. A number of Republican senators have said that's what this move does. Is the president siding with Russia here? No. Again, that's a false binary. What does the U.S. provide? The U.S. provides intelligence, the Starlink, and we allow NATO to buy U.S. armaments and resell them to Ukraine. When President Zelensky asked for patriots, NATO, the European members of NATO, they have plenty patriots. Why aren't they forthcoming with the patriots? Where's Germany giving the Ukrainians patriots?

39:08Kristen Welker: You bring up Starlink. President Zelensky just discussed Starlink. I'd like to have you respond. Ukraine relies on Starlink, Elon Musk's satellite network, just for our viewers to defend against Russian drones. President Zelensky just said he believes the U.S. government slowed the speed. Now, President Trump said he had nothing to do with it. But can you definitively say no one in the Trump administration ordered restrictions? President Trump and Secretary Rubio have categorically said that no one on the Trump administration did that. And I think it is very reckless for President Zelensky to make such a charge.

39:47Kristen Welker: How did it get slowed down? How are these disruptions caused? Because President Zelensky also said there was a break in intel sharing as well. Why did that happen? Again, I don't know anything about that, but we've been very clear And President Zelensky should be very careful about making statements like this that aren't true. Bottom line, Mr. Secretary, is Ukraine an ally of the United States? President Trump has made it clear that he wants to end this war, that it must stop. And President Zelensky presented a false binary this morning that Ukraine must win, the war must end. And that will be with some kind of a negotiated settlement.

40:30And President Trump is working on that every day. He's done it since he came into office.

40:34Kristen Welker: And just to the core question, though, does the United States see Ukraine as an ally? Again, that we provide the three different things to Ukraine. So that's what you do for an ally. We're not for Russia. So does that mean the United States sees Ukraine as an ally? Can you say one way or another? Again, I'm not the secretary of state. I'm not the president. OK. All right. Treasury Secretary Scott Besson, thank you so very much. Appreciate your being here. When we come back with just 16 days to go, the battle for Congress is shifting toward Democrats. The panel is next. Elon Musk is pouring millions into the fight for Texas.

41:20Kristen Welker: Will it help Republicans? The panel is next.

41:28Kristen Welker: Welcome back. The panel is here. NBC News senior Washington correspondent Hallie Jackson, Steve Frischetti, former counselor to President Biden, and Lonnie Chen, a fellow at the Hoover Institution. Welcome to all of you, Hallie Jackson. You're just back from the campaign trail. How fun is that? So fun, because we can't wait to hear what everyone said to you on the ground. And it comes as the Cook Political Report's moving 11 more races in Democrats' direction. What do voters say to you while you were out on the trail? What were your takeaways? And what's interesting about the Cook piece of it is that they specifically cited some of these Midwestern states.

42:00I was in Iowa, Nebraska, and Kansas. Got to spend some time out there. And granted, listen, it's anecdotal. We get it. But I look at the conversation you and Steve Kornacki had at the top of the show. It really is about the economy and affordability. We went out, you'll see this piece coming up on Nightly, but in a word, describe the economy. Overwhelmingly, people felt negatively about it. And here's one interesting thread, sort of something that we saw commonly in these three states. It wasn't that people were saying, I'm about to lose my home. It was, I'm one repair away from having that happen.

42:30I can't fix my car. I mean, people are saying, I heard a lot, I'm doing okay, but I know a lot of people who are struggling, and I'm so close to the edge. And I thought there were two people who were really instructive in this. I met them both in Kansas. Both of them, traditional Republicans, have voted Republican. One man voted for Trump three times. He says, I can't bring myself to vote for Roger Marshall right now. He's not going to vote for Adam Hamilton. He says he's not going to get there. That's entirely on the table. And this is the kind of voter that Republicans need to show up in some of these places in a place like Kansas.

43:00Another woman runs a food pantry. She's paying more for it. She said her cans are ravioli, right? 50 cents more to try to bring it in for these food pantry people that need help. And there's more people who need help. Again, traditionally a red voter. And she also doesn't know what she's going to do coming up into. It's real undecided about this.

43:16Kristen Welker: Those are the voters who are going to make all of the difference, Lonnie Chen, in places like Kansas, in places like Texas, quite frankly, where you're dealing with the headwinds that President Trump has. You're also dealing with the quality of the candidate. Ken Paxton has his own headwinds. And it comes as this week, Elon Musk donated a staggering$158 million to PACs, supporting Ken Paxton. The race in Texas has surpassed$500 million in combined ad spending, the second non-presidential race to pass that threshold. What do you make of the state of play there, particularly when you take into account what Halle learned on the road?

43:52Well, I think, first of all, the money from Elon Musk and from the pro-Trump super PACs, that has definitely equalized the spending in Texas. That has brought us into a situation where it will be a competitive race. I do think it's the case money has diminishing returns, though. At some point, voters do kind of check out. They've seen enough ads. They get sick of it. So I do think we're reaching that point pretty soon. With respect to Texas, I mean, look, you have to start with the baseline here. President Trump won the state of Texas last time around, you know, 14 points-ish. And so you have to believe that there's enough sort of stuff working against gravity there to make James Talrico really, really competitive and potentially beating Ken Paxton.

44:31There are a lot of things about Ken Paxton's candidacy that have been troubling, whether it's his own personal issues. Some of that background certainly is there. But I think if you look at the performance of Paxton in his last few races, 2022, when he ran for attorney general, a lot of this stuff was swirling around him already. He actually outperformed Ted Cruz in 2018 when Ted Cruz ran in that cycle against Beto O 'Rourke. So I just think what we have to understand is that there are some parts of Texas where I think Ken Paxton is going to do really, really well. He's going to do better, in fact, probably than other Senate candidates have done.

45:02Southeast Texas, the South Plains, the Panhandle. Now, I get it. There's been migration into Texas. The population has changed. But I just think that the fundamentals in Texas still favor Ken Paxton. And I do think when all the votes are counted, Paxton is going to be the next senator from Texas.

45:18Kristen Welker: Steve Verschetti, what do you make of that? I don't. Number one, I think Musk can spend it all. Even Elon Musk can spend it all at this point. And it's not going to cover up what people are feeling about the economy. I mean, you just, Steve presented the data this morning, and I think it's really overwhelming. The generic ballot is at plus nine for Democrats right now. I think it's an enormously difficult environment. The six months of inflation numbers have, you know, underscored what people are feeling, Hallie, just like you described, what they're feeling in their lives. It's gas prices, it's groceries, it's health care and it's housing.

45:58And those costs are making the arithmetic of life too difficult for everyday people. And they're not going to be persuaded by, you know, an obtuse ad about something else that Musk or even the Republican Party want to drive as a message. It's not working. Well, it's really visceral for people. I mean, this is stuff that people feel on a really personal level. Well, and I'll say I've spoken with some, even just this weekend, some Republican operatives who were like, hey, of all the bazillions of dollars that are getting spent on some of these races, Republicans may not be doing enough in some of these key spots to focus on what they've done positively for the economy.

46:33I think the war against Iran is huge. That guy I told you about that I talked to said he contacted Senator Marshall's office about the war. He was so frustrated with it and what it's done to his gas prices. Hallie, I'll say this. And we talked about this on Labor Day when you had Senator Kennedy for his interview. And he said, you know, our problem is this is a Republican senator from Louisiana. Our problem is we haven't done anything to address the things that people are really concerned about.

46:54Kristen Welker: He said that on air with you. Lonnie, the word visceral, I think, captures why this is such an extraordinary environment. When you go to fill up your gas, when that gas is above$4 a gallon, you heard me ask the Treasury Secretary, when's it going to come down? That's something that people are dealing with every single week. Well, look, that is the single best proof point for why it is that some of these states, like Iowa, like Ohio, Where, by the way, the president did just almost just as well in those states as he did in Texas in 2024. And that's why in places like Iowa is going to be an incredibly close race.

47:28And that is because of the state of the economy, tariffs, which we haven't talked much about, the situation with Canada. All of that factors into what makes this a race because you cannot tell people how to feel about the economy.

47:38Kristen Welker: Hallie, yeah, exactly right. And I guess all of this comes as we're now getting all of this new news about Russia and Ukraine. and the president basically pausing those waivers. I wonder when you're on the ground. One Republican strategist said to me, this is a distraction for candidates. They don't want to have to answer these questions. And some of them are having to answer some of these questions. And by the way, what an interview with the Treasury Secretary that you've conducted here. And I do think, you know, I didn't hear the word tariffs in dozens of conversations that I heard. You didn't hear the word tariffs, but you hear all about the downstream impacts of what those tariffs had done.

48:12And I do think that the people who are working on some of these campaigns and talking with folks across multiple campaigns, they understand that. They understand that they've got to figure out a way to come across as feeling the pain of the people that they're looking to represent. But in the case of some of these Republicans, it's the war that has made these prices go up. And there's not a great answer for that. There's not. And it's exactly what Hallie just said. Tariffs and the war in Iran are directly responsible. A concrete example of why prices are up. We've seen in the last six months, there's no getting around that.

48:45And because of that, people are holding the people responsible for that accountable. And that's why you're seeing the numbers that we're seeing.

48:52Kristen Welker: Well, I thought it was interesting, Lonnie Chen, because you heard Secretary Besant basically say, look, you have to go back to the Biden administration. We're hearing that from President Trump on the campaign trail as well, who still says he gets an A plus for handling on the economy. Does that work? Do you think we are in the home stretch here? Yeah, look, there are very few things I think that will change the fundamental dynamics of this race. And again, it's hard to convince people the economy is good when they don't think the economy is good. Right. I mean, you can make all the arguments you want about where the numbers are and what things are happening around the economy around them.

49:24But the reality is people are going to vote their pocketbooks. President Biden tried to make that.

49:28Kristen Welker: People are going to vote their pocketbooks. And the numbers, by the way, were different. It's almost counterproductive, I think, sometimes when you try to tell people, look, it's not so bad. You know, where the whole concept that maybe you need to pick another protein to eat instead. Right. I mean, that's a tough argument to make. And so I think that's where we are. There just aren't very many things that are going to alter the fundamentals of the election, which is why I think the House is going to be a very, very difficult push for Republicans. Steve, do you think so? I mean, are Democrats feeling emboldened about the House?

49:54Kristen Welker: Could they be overly confident? I'll tell you that they're going to avoid that. We're going to run through the tape. Democratic candidates all over the country. Nobody feels comfortable until it's election day and two days beyond after all the votes are counted. We just are going to play this out. I think the environment is the environment. No amount of spending from whatever PAC source is driving it into the elections are going to change that dynamic. People know what they're experiencing and what they feel. And they're going to vote to make sure the people who failed to address the things that they believe were front and center and on the table, they're going to hold them responsible.

50:35Kristen Welker: Hallie, with the final 20 seconds, I mean, did you feel that uncertainty on the trail that no one was overly confident? Oh, I did. I mean, I think that people, you know, folks try to spin on either side. But I do think there's a real sense. The question is, Steve, you're talking. And I think if these voters turn out, I mean, that's such another that's another huge question here is are people going to feel so frustrated that they just go, I'm good. I'm staying home this time. I talked to one guy who said a con was the biggest issue. He's furious. He's furious about gas. He's not voting. One of the big questions we'll be watching.

51:03Kristen Welker: Great conversation. Thank you so much. That is all for today. Thank you for watching. We'll be back next week because if it's Sunday, it's Meet the Press.

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