Italy on the Brink and Ireland's Glorious Run: Qualifying Playoff Preview presented by Christopher Ward 03/25/26

0:00Rog:You're listening to the Men in Blazers Media Network, Suboptimal Radio.

0:05James Horncastle:I just think it's really important for Ukraine. You should never sort of take for granted how important it is for that country to have representation in sporting events like this. I genuinely believe that they'll have kind of the most self-belief, really, of all the teams in this four-way section. There is something about Ireland, a gathering momentum, that I think will carry them through. It seems that there is a sport in loving to hate on the national team. And the biggest opponent the national team faces isn't Northern Ireland, it isn't Wales or Bosnia, it's themselves.

0:39Rog:World Cup 2026 is 78 days away. And tomorrow we take an epic step to completing the field. That's right, the final six slots in our 48-team field will be sealed. Four of those bad boys from Europe, two intercontinental, almost intergalactic. And in the next 50 minutes or so, we'll tell you all you need to know to be ready to savour it all. Think of this as a play-in tournament. Oh, it's March Madness, but with global stakes. Massive teams like Italy, joyous teams, cardiac kids, Republic of Ireland, tiny teams. 150th in the world, New Caledonia, nickname the Cagos, yes. after the flightless endangered bird found only in their forest.

1:23Rog:Go Caggoos! We'll dig deep, tell you all you need to know for your viewing pleasure. It's a joy to bring back the two humans I revere the most, the mighty Rory Smith, Crown Prince of Harrogate. Welcome back, sir. How you doing? And the most Italian thing out of hull, the Athletics' Jane Horncastle. Bienvenuto! Grazie, Rogerio. Is there an Italian equivalent to Roger?

1:45James Horncastle:Yes, it's Ruggiero. Ruggiero. which is big in Naples because they had Norman Kings, King Roger of the Normans from back in the day.

1:55Rog:My mother was always fascinated. Does it mean the same off the record as it does in England as well? Let's not go there. Let's go back to the playoffs. The intercontinental lows will come, but let's start with the continent of Europe because mostly it allows us to savour the Italian predicament. And by savour, I mean laugh. if you're that way inclined, or empathise with sorrow if you feel things. In the UEFA play-off, 16 teams from Europe, 12 runners-up from the World Cup qualifying group stage, plus four that earn backdoor places via your 2024-25 Nations League will battle for the final four Euro spots in a knockout format to reach the Copa das Copas.

2:39Rog:Italy, Pathé, in a four-team Royal Rumble, they'll play Northern Ireland first, and if they emerge, They'll face the winner of Wales and Bosnia-Herzegovina. Never play two teams at the same time. James, Italy and playoffs should go together like pineapple and pizza. They're four-time World Cup winners. They're ranked 13th in the world by FIFA. How did they get here?

3:02James Horncastle:Well, I mean, World Cup qualifying started a few days after the Champions League final last May, where Inter got smashed 5-0 by Paris Saint-Germain. and given a core of this Italy team is made up of interplayers. It was not ideal timing to go to Oslo to play against Erling Haaland and Martin Odegaard's Norway, where they found themselves sort of 3-0 down at half-time. The coach at the time, who's changed, Luciano Spalletti, also fell out with the centre-back who is really good against Erling Haaland, Francesco Ocedbi. And so that set the tone for qualifying. Spalletti essentially sacked himself days after the defeat in Norway.

3:44James Horncastle:I've never seen this before. In a press conference said, yes, this is my last game. What? Hang on. There's been no statement from the Italian FA. What's going on here? And they've been running on vibes ever since because they appointed Gennaro Gattuso, the main avatar of Italian passion, because that is what they lack, apparently, and that is what's going to get them over the line, Rog.

4:07Rog:Yeah, we'll talk about him in one moment. I mean, regular listeners, regular Italian fans will know this is not a new experience. Italy have experienced the shame of elimination at this stage ahead of the last two Men's World Cups. And that will make them quake a little bit. The good news, as a seeded team, they'll play their semi-final on home soil. But they lost in 2018 against Sweden at the San Siro. And in 2022, were stunned in Palermo by 67th in the world North Macedonia. So, James, tell us, how are the levels of existential dread and psychological scoring being handled by the normally so rational and chill Italian media?

4:48Rog:Have they all just moved on now that Italy is just a massive baseball superman?

4:54James Horncastle:Yeah, maybe they need people born in New Jersey to actually come and muscle up for this men's national team. More Giuseppe Rossi's before the knee injury. so look I mean this is a team that I wouldn't say Italian nationals love to hate but it seems that there is a sport in loving to hate on the national team and we've seen sort of veteran former World Cup winners come out like Gigi Buffon who's now an executive for the national team or Daniele De Rossi who's now the general coach basically say look guys stop being so negative and creating this environment in which the biggest opponent the national team faces isn't Northern Ireland it isn't Wales or Bosnia it's themselves it's the fear of not making it and you know back in 2021 when Italy won the Euros that was seen as them lifting this spell and getting rid of the shame of not qualifying for the 2018 World Cup and then for them not to go to the following World Cup, it brought it all back and it almost kind of erased winning the Euros from history.

6:10James Horncastle:And I always remember before the 2018 playoff against Sweden, the late Italian Football Federation president Carlo Tebecchio, who was quite a controversial character, he said it would be an apocalypse if Italy didn't go to the World Cup. And it It feels like we have been either living in that apocalypse since then. The apocalypse did actually happen and the national team just can never qualify for World Cups again. Or it did feel like Francis Ford Coppola was able to make a sequel for Apocalypse Now. And then a third in the series as well. It's like he just wanted to make three films as with The Godfather.

6:49James Horncastle:He's made three Apocalypse Nows, todays and tomorrows. And we just get to sit through them all.

6:56Rog:This episode is presented by our friends at Christopher Ward. one of the fastest-growing watch brands in the world. I love them so much. They're an independent watch brand. I love the way they're challenging the traditional luxury model. Many of you will recall Christopher Ward's work commemorating Goodison Park in timepiece form, a reminder of the love we share for the culture, the stories, the details, and the global community that make this sport so unbelievably powerful. When I look at my CW watch, sometimes I like to imagine I'm a manager, counting down the seconds to the final whistle of an undeserved draw in a relegation battle.

7:32Rog:That's what life's about. Courage. I mean, it is almost unfathomable. And we'll get to Northern Ireland in one second, Raw. But you talk about who they brought in, really. Gennaro Gattuso as manager is just like testicular fortitude in human form. But his team are here because they've lacked a clinical finisher. They've not proven capable of breaking teams down. Having somewhat of an injury crisis, no Verratti, no Chiesa amongst those out Newcastle fans no doubt losing their minds to see Sandro Tenale in full training with Italy after not making the bench even against Sunderland which is just tell us about this team what we should accept we focus a lot on the negative you know the possible looming hurt of another tournament major fail but what are they actually good at well I think if you look at the quality of player in the squad it's maybe not kind of what Italian football would have expected in its glorious heyday but compared to every other playoff team except I guess except for maybe Turkey they've got a depth of quality that nobody else can match they've got players who are you know the bedrock of of not just Newcastle and Sandro Tonali but you know Nicolo Barella who's probably off for a lot for a while has certainly been arguably Inter Milan's best player they've got players who've played in Champions League finals they've got members you know squad members from Atalanta from from Juventus from both Milan clubs from Napoli now these are high quality footballers I think the problem for Italy has has for a long long time and I will always as I always do Rog bow to James's knowledge on Italian football but it's there is there is a structural issue with Italian football which is which is related to how they bring players through and part of that the bit we see is that you know you're still young in Serie A if you're 27 they still think it's a bit of a risk to play a 27 year old oh are they ready but the other thing and this is a thought I'm stealing directly from James Horncastle's brain is in Italian youth football the people who want to win the most are the coaches because they know that that's what Italy produces they produce coaches if you're an Italian coach and you've got you know you've been to Coviziano where they do all the studying you can go and have a big rich career as one of Italy's great exports managerial brains and that means that at youth level the coaches want to win and at youth level basically everywhere else the idea is that you bring players through That doesn't happen in Italy.

9:52And you see that through the squad that, you know, there isn't a generation of Italian players waiting to come through. They don't produce those kind of incandescent talents that marked Italian football for so long. The number 10s, the strikers, even the kind of brutal defenders. They're not coming through and they're not coming through because the youth system is set up for coaches and not for players. And I think that's a real problem. It has been alleviated a little bit in this squad that Gennaro Gattuso has called together, is Pio Esposito, who is, alongside Giovanni Leone, the injured Liverpool defender, one of the two big, great hopes of Italian football.

10:30He's a striker, he can store goals. If he can translate his promise for Inter into something real and impactful on the international level, then that turns Italy into a much more complete side instantaneously. a team with a cutting edge, which is what they've lacked for so long, they should have enough to get through the playoffs. The big test, though, as James has alluded to, as you've alluded to, is the pressure they're under, because no team is going into these playoffs under more pressure to qualify than the Italians, and it's broken them twice already.

11:02Rog:I do want to touch on the other side of this opening tie. Northern Ireland lie ahead, 69th in the world. Nice. Tempted to reach their first World Cup since 1986. manager Michael O 'Neill was in the press playing a little mind game with Gattuso saying the pressure is for them to deal with. But the Irish do also find themselves in an injury pitch. Huge blow for them. Sunderland defender, big damn Ballard, has been ruled out of the game due to hamstring knack. Connor Bradley also absent with his persistent knee injury. Receives Trey Hulme and Justin Deviney as the only players to have played Premier League football this season in the starting line-up.

11:38Rog:James, are even you sensing this? that it would be a miracle for them to win in Bergamo. Or I guess another question is, in your dark recesses of your Italian mind, what has to go right for Northern Ireland?

11:49James Horncastle:Well, look, they have got continuity on their side. I mean, this is a team that knows what they're about, regardless of whether they have only two of their four Premier League players available, the rest are kind of in the lower leagues. They know absolutely what they have to do in this game, Whereas Italy under Gattuso have been playing sort of 3-5-2, 4-4-2, oh, we're unbalanced, now we need balance. I don't think Northern Irish are going to have any of these problems. And, yeah, they have played close games. I mean, if you look at qualifying, I mean, Germany only beat them 1-0 in Belfast. When they went to Germany, they went behind, then they came back and made it 1-1.

12:33James Horncastle:And Germany then finished them off 3-1. But for me, if the Northern Irish were to come back in this game, let's say they go behind and they make it 1-1, the fear in the stadium would really impact Italy. And we should touch upon the compliment, I would say, that the Italian Football Federation is kind of indirectly paying the Northern Irish. they are going to play this game in Bergamo, not at San Siro, not at the Stadio Olimpico. They're going to play it in a smaller stadium because the Italian national team can't handle the idea that if they misplace a couple of passes, the crowd starts to boo and get on their back.

13:19James Horncastle:So I think for some of the Northern Irish players, they wanted to play on those big stages. They wanted the big occasion because if they don't get to the World Cup, they can at least say we've played at San Siro or something like that. But it just goes to show that the psychology already seems to be on the side of the Northern Irish. And I was at Atalanta Bayern a few weeks ago, Rog. And one of the other things about that stadium in Bergamo is it has the best pitch in Italy. Now, whether that plays into these total footballing ballers of Northern Ireland, I don't know. but it seems like a lot of the conditions are kind of set up to help them and yeah the the Italians are kind of again analysed this self-analysing themselves too much which might

14:08Rog:be a bit of an issue even even the pitch election the new the new balance stadium it's been a dream of all the northern Irish players to play at the new balance stadium ever since they were Popeye's chicken.

14:19James Horncastle:Popeye's chicken outside of it now.

14:21Rog:I mean, that's the big time. Even that's risk mitigation, which is kind of revealing of the actual mindset and the sense of dread, which is cloaking this. On the other side of the pate bracket roar, Harry Wilson's Wales, as they're officially known around the world. They've never beaten Bosnia and Herzegovina, but they are slight favourites because they play at home. They've got a fearsome record in Cardiff. that red wall, that vaunted, one of the great intangibles of British football. It is magical to witness. Indeed, it would be magical to have Wales in the World Cup proper again, have those fans in the United States.

14:59Rog:How do you evaluate their prospects? Yeah, I think they've probably got more of a chance than Northern Ireland, which sounds really obvious. Bosnia have quality through their squad. You know, they've got a lot of players playing in relatively major leads in Europe. there's a little bit of hostility brewing because one of the Bosnian midfielders has alleged that Steve Cooper, who's manager at Brombo in Denmark. Welsh-born Steve Cooper. Stay with Rory here because this is mind-blowing. So Steve Cooper is Welsh-born. I don't actually know whether Steve Cooper self-identifies as Welsh, but that's up to Steve Cooper.

15:35Why let facts get in the way of a good old grudge? But he is manager of the team I'm going to call Brombo, as I'm pretentious. there's Bromby, the sort of traditional Danish giant, now overshadowed by FC Copenhagen. And one of his midfielders is Bosnian. And he has alleged through Sergei Barbaras, who's the Bosnian manager, that this player has been left out of Bromby's team for a while because Steve Cooper wants Wales to beat Bosnia. And so he's trying, I think he's trying to infect the midfielder with ring rust. I think seems to be the logic. Galaxy thinking. Things are getting tense between Bosnia and Wales.

16:07I think Wales have enough quality to get through, if I'm completely honest. Obviously, I'm slightly more familiar with a lot of the Welsh players than the Bosnian players, but Bosnia will put up a fight. They'll be well organised. They'll be technically very good. They have been in contention to qualify for World Cup. They were at 2014, but they're never far away, Bosnia. They are a real challenge. But at home in Cardiff, players like Wilson, players like David Brooks, I think Wales should have enough to get through.

16:35Rog:So the winner of that tie has home advantage in the final round. Let's button Group A. James, how do you view this group big picture? With an Italian slant, Gattuso says, we need to arrive this Thursday with great desire. We need to be clear-headed. That's just like such the anti-Gattuso mindset. And be able to, this is an amazing part of the quote, to be able to sense the danger. Our weakness is that we struggle to sense the danger. Is it really about their fear of failure, this group, ultimately? A psychological test as much as anything?

17:08James Horncastle:It really is. Because I think even if they come through the Northern Ireland game, if they have to go to Wales in Cardiff. I mean, I've got Italian friends who are kind of Fulham season ticket holders. And they're not Stanley Tucci, by the way. But they look at Il Mitico Wilson. This Wilson free agent. They're like, wow, God, like, you know, Juve or Milan should sign this guy. Like, he's just banging in goals, you know, from 35 yards. They're actually quite scared of Wilson. The other thing is going to Zenica to play Bosnia. Bosnia still have this long-in-the-tooth Edin Dzeko, who has gone to play for Schalke in the Bundesliga 2.

17:53James Horncastle:And Brin prolific. And he's Brin prolific as a whole man. There's Bosnians from Hull in this team as well. Hadzi Emetevic, the midfield player. Hull, of course, coached by a Bosnian as well. One of my best friends is Bosnian. So I fear the Bosnians. I have a lot of... I'm just... I'm overcome with anxiety. I can't wait for Italy anymore. In fact, my employers have booked me to basically follow Brazil instead because they are coached by an Italian. So, look, I think a World Cup is a better place with Italy. Gianni Infantino would certainly agree, which might make actually other people disagree.

18:36Rog:You know, I'd say that the World Cup in 1994 really only kicked off after Italy played Ireland in the Netherlands and that half the stadium, all of Jersey was there. Half of them looking like the Sopranos, half of them looking like Angela's Ashes. And it was that reclamation of identity here in the States that made that tournament what it was. A World Cup in the US without Italy is genuinely heartbreaking. in. Look at it this way. Either way, team's going to get a six-piece from Popeyes with sides and biscuits and a ghost pepper chicken sandwich. Oh, you win even if you lose. But very quickly, predictions, Jen, who goes to Group A?

19:14Italy. Out of hope, I'm going to say Italy. I mean, I agree with both of you. I think the World Cup, actually to be honest, particularly an expanded 48-team World Cup, probably needs Italy. Let's cross our fingers and hope that the fates are smiling on them.

19:27Rog:To Path B, which pits Ukraine against Sweden, Poland against Albania, Ukraine will be playing at home in Valencia, Spain. Sweden finished bottom in their World Cup qualifying group but qualified for the playoffs on the basis of their famed Nations League performances led by old friend Graham Potter. Just signed a contract extension as Sweden head coach, tying him to the job until 2030, despite the fact he's only managed two games, a 4-1 defeat to Switzerland and a 1-1 home draw with Slovenia. Perhaps something to do with the way he's won over the Swedish press, a charm offensive, revealing he spends his spare time brushing up on the works of Astrid Lindgren.

20:05Rog:He's read both Mio Min Mio and the Brothers Lionheart. That's tactics. Poland, Revolver and a return to the national team with the great Robert Lewandowski, who aged 37, is like a Krakow Danny Welbeck. Three goals scored and created three more in his last four games. How do you handicap this foursome? I think he's really nicely poised. So obviously with Lewandowski, Poland do have that one star. and there's players like Piotr Zalinski and others who are high-level, kind of high-quality footballers, but Lewandowski is the kind of icon of Poland, which should be an advantage. He's one of the best strikers of his generation, if not the best pure number nine of his generation.

20:41But whenever I've seen Poland play, which is generally at European Championships, it seems to inhibit them because so much of their play goes through Lewandowski. They seem to be very conscious, or the rest of the team is very conscious that they really have to do a good job for Robert Lewandowski. It's not his fault, but because he's of this level that's so far above everybody else. I think that that's almost a drawback. Sweden, Ukraine. I'm going to say something about the Swedes here, Rog, that I'm going to regret, which is, even though Alexander Izak obviously isn't there, Sweden have got quite a lot of exciting young players.

21:14So if they were to qualify for the World Cup, they should be quite interesting. But the golden rule of all World Cups is that Sweden are never very interesting. So I think if you look through the teams in that group of four, Sweden probably have the highest average quality and you would therefore make them favourites to get through. But as you say, Potter's record isn't great. They are missing, you know, they're one probably truly world class player in whatever's left of Alexander Izak. Ukraine will be incredibly motivated. And even Albania, who are playing Poland and would be the kind of the last of the four, I guess, in most people's eyes.

21:52Albanian football has changed a lot in the last 10 years. There's a real programme to try and bring through native talent. There's a lot of players of Albanian descent in Switzerland and Germany. They are not to be taken lightly. So I think it is finally poised. But if you look through the squads, you'd say that the Swedes are the team you'd fancy.

22:07James Horncastle:I just think it's really important for Ukraine. That conflict has sort of fallen off the headlines a little bit with everything else that's going on in the Middle East. I think we should never take for granted how important it is for that country to have representation in sporting events like this. They gave us already in club football one of the stories of the season with their goalkeeper Anatoly Trubin scoring that goal against Real Madrid for Benfica in stoppage time. Their striker Artem Dovbic has had a terrible time with injury for Roma and isn't available for this game. And of course, future Ballon d 'Or winner Mudrick is still out serving a ban.