1. Podcasts
  2. Mining Stock Daily
  3. Newcore Gold: A $60 Million Market Cap vs. $650 Million Project NPV
Mining Stock Daily

10 Nov 2026 · 16m · 6 chapters

Episode artwork

Newcore Gold: A $60 Million Market Cap vs. $650 Million Project NPV

In short

Nucor Gold (NCAU) valuation vs. project economics, driven by gold-market volatility, tax-loss selling, and leverage to higher gold prices. CEO Luke Alexander discusses a “disconnect” between a ~$60M market cap and an after-tax project NPV of ~$650M at $4,200 gold (PFS), arguing the stock trades at ~0.1–0.15x NPV. He claims tax-loss selling peaks mid/late Nov after starting in August, with institutional investors (55% owned) stepping in afterward.

Notable examples

gold sensitivity—after-tax NPV rises from ~$468M at $3,800 to ~$970M at $5,000; drilling targets include Boeing with 2.59 g/t over 69m (6.4 g/t over 24m core).

Guest backgrounds

Luke Alexander is Nucor Gold’s CEO; no other guests mentioned.

Written by AI. May contain mistakes.

Chapters

0:17

Gold Market Update with Luke Alexander

CEO Luke Alexander discusses the current state of the gold market and Nucor Gold's position amid tax loss selling.

“They do trade on the venture exchange with NCAU.”
4:19

Valuation Disconnect and Future Opportunities

Discussion on the valuation disconnect between Nucor Gold's market cap and its project NPV, highlighting investment opportunities.

“So I think anyone who still had heap leach numbers in their head and weren't happy with the shift that we made to CIL, they've had a chance to sell and they're long gone at this point.”
6:13

Drilling Program and Project Development

Overview of Nucor Gold's ongoing drilling program and its potential impact on resource estimation and project economics.

“Again, when you compare that to a depressed$60 million market cap, that has us trading at about$30 per ounce in the ground.”
8:13

High-Grade Material and Mining Economics

Analysis of the implications of high-grade material on mining costs and overall project value, including specific drilling results.

“Is that something that's maybe on the docket for 2027?”
14:03

Recent Drilling Results at Boeing Deposit

Learn about the significant drilling results at the Boeing deposit and their implications for project valuation.

“drilling that we're doing at the moment, you'll see a number of the results that we've put out so far this year have been from our Boeing deposit.”
15:21

Future Drilling Plans and Market Insights

Discover the upcoming drilling plans and insights into market reactions and stock performance.

“There'll be once or twice more before the end of the year.”
A man walking through an airport, asking his phone a question

Ask about this episode

Get the gist, explore an idea or ask about something said.

Claude

On Mining Stock Daily, what are the key points of this episode?

Searching your listening

Transcript

Automatic transcript. May contain errors.

0:00Music

0:16Trevor Hall: Moving right along here on this Monday afternoon in Zurich at the Precious Metals Summit. Going to get an update from Nucor Gold. They do trade on the venture exchange with NCAU. It hasn't been too long since we touched base with CEO Luke Alexander. We're going to do that once again. Luke, good to see you in Zurich. Give me a sense of, you know, it's been half a day here, but you've had a number of meetings. What's kind of been the general theme here that you've had? Are people more concerned about the general gold market, or are they really interested in really the valuation of what's happening with Nucor?

0:54Trevor Hall: What's the mixed sense here? Yeah, I think overall, obviously, it's been a very volatile few months in the gold market. So a lot of the conversations have started by talking about the overall gold market, the volatility that we've seen in the gold market. And then a lot of the conversations are then starting to move into talking about tax loss selling and what the timing around tax loss selling. And it seems like every year that starts earlier in August, in September, and then ultimately there is a point though where investors start to step in and take the other side of that trade. I typically see that as towards mid to the end of November where people start to see stocks like ours that have been hit hard from a tax loss selling perspective look to step in and ultimately take the other side of that.

1:45So there's been a fair bit of macro discussion but then also just trading specific and people looking at, okay, what's the trading opportunity here, as well as, you know, what's the longer term fundamental opportunity. And that's typically where the conversation leads in most of the presentations that we do is it leads into that. But to kick off the conversations, it's been more on the macro and short term trading side of things.

2:14Trevor Hall: Do you think that Nucor is kind of set up to be one of those companies that gets picked up and tax loss buying on the flip end? Yeah, so I think we, since August, have been suffering from tax loss selling. And that's because our share price is down this year. And it's one of the stocks that people can ultimately lock losses in on. So that, I think, probably started in August. We've seen it through September and October. But inevitably, we've got very strong, deep-pocketed, long-term institutional investors, 55 % institutionally owned. And that's where those long-term focused investors will see opportunity.

2:55We're at a depressed level right now, trading at about a U.S. $60 million market cap. When you compare that market cap to the NPV of our project that we put out within the PFS, you know I think there's a complete fundamental disconnect at a$4 ,200 gold price you're looking at an after-tax NPV of roughly$650 million for our project which again compares to a US$60 million market cap today so we're trading anywhere from call it 0.1 to 0.15 times the NPV of the project which depending on what gold price you want to use I think is a complete disconnect relative to the market cap. A number of our major institutional investors, they also see that disconnect.

3:42And when you get this kind of pressure from a selling perspective that's come about through tax losses, ultimately that creates a opportunity to buy the other side of that trade and look for it to re-rate once that pressure has been lifted. Yeah.

4:02Trevor Hall: Obviously, there's a lot of pressure following the PFS earlier this summer. But how in the last few months, like what's the conversations been like? How do you win back some of those investors who may be sold on that news? I think since we put out the PFS, we've traded now about 70 million shares. So I think anyone who still had heap leach numbers in their head and weren't happy with the shift that we made to CIL, they've had a chance to sell and they're long gone at this point. That then rolled straight into this tax loss selling that we've been seeing. So again, I think there's an opportunity now that we've been hit by both of those things to ultimately step in and buy the other side of that that selling pressure.

4:50And as we head into 2027, if you're bullish on the gold price, One of the things our project does create is a tremendous amount of leverage to the gold price. And I'd encourage anyone who's listening and interested to go have a look at our presentation. And you can see a gold sensitivity table in that presentation that looks at different gold prices and what the impact is. If we use our base case for the PFS of$3 ,800 gold, that produces an after-tax NPV of roughly$468 million. If you increase that to 5 ,000, which is where gold was trading when we commissioned our PFS in February of this year, you'll see that that increases to almost 970 million of after-tax NPV.

5:39So our project almost doubles in value when you see that move from 3 ,800 to$5 ,000. And again, you can go into our presentation and pick whatever gold price you want. But that's the kind of torque that a company like ours provides. When you then look at it from an ounce in the ground perspective, we've got about 2.1 million ounces of global resource. That comprises 1.5 million in the indicated category and an additional roughly 600 ,000 ounces in the inferred category. Again, when you compare that to a depressed$60 million market cap, that has us trading at about$30 per ounce in the ground. You cannot find ounces today for that inexpensive.

6:26So it's that kind of fundamental mispricing in the market that I see a number of our major shareholders looking to step in and take the other side of that trade.

6:38Trevor Hall: Have you been receiving any new inbound inquiries? Whether it be, you're well institutionally held, but is it strategic of some sort on the table or is that something you would pursue? Yeah, again, when you get these disconnects in the market in terms of project value relative to public company valuations, that will also start to attract a number of, call it strategic corporate type investors as well, because they look at these projects fundamentally as opposed to what it's trading at in the market. And a number of those types of groups obviously see that disconnect and are very interested in what we're doing.

7:32And the whole CIL also feeds into that narrative as well. You know, CIL projects are the typical way of processing gold, especially in West Africa. So on the back of the PFS, there's a number of groups who are very keen to revisit and look at our project in more detail because we've gone down that whole CIL route. So yeah, there's without a doubt a number of groups who are keen to look at our project in a lot more detail now that we have that PFS out, which creates a lot of de-risking for the overall project.

8:10Trevor Hall: How much of this year's and next year's drilling in that fresh rock that could feed that CIL, how much could that change the mine plan in an updated resource? Is that something that's maybe on the docket for 2027? Yeah, absolutely. So if you look at our 80 ,000 meter ongoing drill program, and we have a slide in our presentation that breaks these numbers down. But if you look at the first 28 ,000 meters of this 80 ,000 meter drill program, that was included in our updated MRE, which then fed our pre-feasibility study. We've then released in 2026 an additional 24 ,000 meters of results. So all of those results that have been released in 2026, none of those are included in our current MRE or in our PFS.

9:05That will go into future studies. That then leaves us with an additional 28 ,000 meters of drilling, which is ongoing at the moment. One of the things we've identified within our PFS is the opportunity to increase the grade to drive better economics for the overall project. We've identified about 200 ,000 to 300 ,000 ounces that sit within the kind of 0.7 to 0.8 gram per ton range, which if we bring that into a future mine plan could add$2 to$250 million to the NPV of the project. So it's that kind of drilling that we're looking at at the moment or focused on at the moment, where we see an immediate impact on future economics for the project.

9:57We're also then not losing focus on the fact that we have identified a number of high-grade shoots across our project. So a number of the results that you've seen in 2026 are focused on those high-grade feeder zones that we've identified. And we've been having some very good results coming out. And we'll continue to chase those feeder zones with the additional 28 ,000 meters of ongoing drilling that we're doing. So it's really a multifaceted exploration program. One is ounces that will immediately have a positive impact from a project perspective, but then also high-grade areas that we think will add value by showing that mid - to longer-term potential that exists on our project as well.

10:47Trevor Hall: Bringing some of that high-grade material into an earlier part of your mine plan will have implications. What do you think that, what does that potentially do for your ASIC? So if you look at our ASIC and we break this down within our presentation, so our life of mine ASIC today is roughly$2 ,300 per ounce. When you then look at the average of those first three years that I was talking about, that 130 ,000 ounces of production which is driven by 0.8 gram per tonne material, our ASIC drops below$2 ,000 in those first three years. So that's something that we will focus on is ultimately getting those higher grade ounces, extend it well beyond the first three years, which then will drop the overall ASIC in those years as well, which again, contributes to the overall positive impact from a NPV perspective, payback perspective.

11:49And then obviously, as we're discussing, lower the ASIC.

11:53Trevor Hall: I feel like$2 ,300 without actually seeing the data in front of me,$2 ,300 is basically industry average right now. Yeah, as you could imagine, with gold trading around$4 ,000 and hitting as high as almost$5 ,500, ASICs around the world are going up. Material that you would previously throw onto a waste dump is now being milled because it's extremely profitable or so we will continue to see ASICs going up globally and yes absolutely we're kind of getting into that two thousand dollar range from a global ASIC perspective. Okay so it's well in line but what if do you make a goal of trying to figure out how NSHE life of mine can at least maybe 10 years of sub two thousand dollar ASIC I mean is that a goal and how do you reach out?

12:48Trevor Hall: What do you need to maintain$2 ,000 below that for the first 10 years? I mean, 0.8 gram per ton material is what drives a sub$2 ,000 gold price for us. So we've already outlined what it takes and you can see that again in our presentation in the first three years we break that out and it shows that processing 0.8 gram material in the first three years drops our ASIC to below$2 ,000. So then, you know, yes, if we can replicate that beyond the first three years, which again, based on our internal modeling and what we've identified across the project, we're confident that we are going to be able to do that, then that will just continue to drop the ASIC in those years.

13:40Trevor Hall: Where does that optionality potentially live? Which deposit? I am born? It exists at all of our deposits because all of our deposits do remain open along strike and at depth so continuing to systematically grow the size of the resource at those areas and make new higher grade discoveries can and potentially will contribute to that but specifically in terms of the drilling that we're doing at the moment, you'll see a number of the results that we've put out so far this year have been from our Boeing deposit. You know, that result that we put out mid, those results we put out mid-September, September 17th, I believe it was, we hit one of our best grade meter intercepts ever at our Boeing deposit, 2.59 grams over 69 meters.

14:32Within that, we had a very high-grade core of 6.4 grams over 24 meters. That was sitting up dip from where the mineralization sits at blowing about three-quarters of that hole sitting within the oxide deposit. So that is a great example of material that will displace the lower-grade material that we see in our PFS and ultimately add to the overall economics of the project and future studies that we put out. Interestingly, the day we put that out, our stock popped 29 % on the day. And that, I think, is a recognition that our project is undervalued, and with additional drill results, we can create a lot of value for shareholders.

15:20Okay.

15:21Trevor Hall: Luke, let's leave it at that. There'll be once or twice more before the end of the year. You and I will be chatting a lot of drill results still waiting to be published before we go into 2027. And then obviously more into the new year as you continue to move along. Where are we going to see the next drill results from? Which deposit? We've been doing a fair bit of drilling at both Boeing, NIAM, and CU. So I'll just leave it as wide open as possible for you. One of those three. All right. Nucor Gold Trades on the Venture Exchange with the symbol NCAU. I am a shareholder. They are a partner of MSD.

16:02Trevor Hall: Luke, safe travels. Good to talk to you. Thank you. The information presented should not be considered investment advice. Mining stock, daily, and affiliates are not responsible for any loss arising from any investment decision in connection with the material presented herein. Please do your own research or speak with a licensed financial representative before making any investment decisions.

From the publisher

Newcore Gold CEO Luke Alexander joins Trevor Hall at the Precious Metals Summit in Zurich to discuss the company's valuation following recent weakness in gold equities and continued progress at the Enchi Gold Project in Ghana. Alexander examines the disconnect between Newcore's approximately US$60 million market capitalization and the project's pre-feasibility study valuation, along with the impact of tax-loss selling and changing investor sentiment. The conversation also explores Enchi's leverage to higher gold prices, the transition to a carbon-in-leach processing scenario, and how ongoing drilling could improve future mine economics. Alexander highlights recent high-grade results from the Boin deposit, opportunities to extend lower-cost production beyond the first three years, and the remaining 28,000 meters of planned drilling aimed at expanding resources and improving the project's development potential.

More from Mining Stock Daily

All episodes