Why the Best Mining Projects Still Can't Get Financed - Scott North

0:04Good morning, everyone, and welcome back to this week's long form episode of Mining Stock Daily. I am your host, Ian Wagner, getting you situated on the last trading day of the week before your weekend. For today's conversation, I'm joined by Scott North, co-founder of Kamoa Capital, a strategic advisory firm focused solely on the natural resources sector. Scott and I discussed the divided outlook for gold, rising costs across the mining industry, and why strong margins alone do not guarantee that every producer will outperform. We also examined the growing copper supply challenge, the shortage of genuinely financeable development projects, and the infrastructure required to support AI, electrification, and defense demand.

0:48We close with a broader discussion on critical minerals, government policy, Western processing capacity and what ultimately separates a compelling mining story from a project that can actually be financed and built. It was a great conversation with Scott and I really appreciate him giving us his time and his thoughts. Special thanks to Integra Resources, Vizla Silver, Revival Gold and Equinox Gold for their continued support of the podcast. And if you're interested in the oil markets or want to learn more about how the war in Iran is affecting global energy supply and security, please check out the Oil Ground Up podcast.

1:28It's hosted by Rory Johnston and produced by myself. You can find it on clearcommodity.net or wherever you get your podcasts. Up next is my conversation with Scott North. Thanks, everybody. Have a great weekend and stay safe.

2:00all right scott north welcome back to mining stock daily great to see you and great to have you back on the podcast great to be here and um yeah really looking forward to having a chat yeah we've we've got a lot of things that we can dive into um you know it is wednesday night uh my time early morning Australia time so we did just have the Federal Reserve announce well kind of a non-action right that they're maintaining rates at that three and a half 3.75 percent level before we do before we jump into the granular stuff I do want to sort of get your background and kind of tell everybody what Kamoa Capital is what you guys do and sort of specifically kind of what your goals are.

2:46Yeah, cool. So Kamoa Capital is a year old. We are a strategic advisory firm for the natural resource industry. Our clients range from exploration companies all the way up to governments. We advise on policy, M &A, um, investor relations, IR marketing, um, and, um, yeah, kind of the broad spectrum, but only natural resources, um, and globally. So we have, we have clients in Australia, we have clients in Saudi Arabia, we have clients in Europe. So I live and breathe this stuff seven days a week. Uh, I love it. Um, and wouldn't have it any other way. Yeah. I know we'll get into some of the more Australian-focused issues, policies, opportunities maybe, because I know that's something that's really in your backyard and you're going to have more to add there than I would.

3:42Getting back to kind of the big topic of the day, gold and interest rates here in the U.S., like I said, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged. They have not changed since January. One thing I want to note, long-term government borrowing costs did shoot higher after the announcement. So 30-year treasury yield, which is an indicator of what would cost the federal government to borrow money for three decades, rose to 5.22%, largest one-day increase in more than a year, highest level since 2007. And the 10-year yield, which could arguably be considered the most important interest rate in the world, also rose up 0.07 percentage points to its highest level of the year.

4:24So with that kind of as the backdrop, and I know it's only been a few hours, the sell side on gold is now openly divided, right? JP Morgan still carries a$6 ,000 US for a fourth quarter and a$6 ,300 target for 2027. Bank of America has dropped its$6 ,000 US target and Deutsche Bank has cut to a range of 4 ,300 to 4 ,800, kind of all citing that potential risk of Fed hikes, right? And so I guess the question here is kind of when identical data produces that spread, what is actually being disagreed about and what does that dispersion do to capital allocation across the resources sector? Yeah, I think, you know, as you touched on, everyone's looking at the same data, but it is quite divided.

5:19And why is it quite divided? I I think there is just so many different things going on in the world right now. It's, you know, is a war on, is a war off? Are interest rates going up or down? And trying to have a crystal ball right now, I would say, would be one of the hardest times in history to try and work out if gold is going up or down.

5:47I would say people just need to put a line in the sand and these analysts just need to, for their own jobs and their worth, they need to put a line in the sand and they need to look at, well, what's in front of them. But I would hate to be an analyst right now because no one knows where anything is going. I wake up and I check the news. I go to bed and I check the news and it's always something different. So I just look at where the commodities are trading right now And I think 4 ,000 has been hovering around here for quite a while with everything going on in the world. So I think it's a good base.

6:29It might drop a little below. It might go a little bit higher. But I do think it is a good base for now. Yeah, I think one of the things that's such a challenge about this environment is the news is so back and forth on the war. and because of that and being a war that's centered around energy prices that directly correlate to inflation expectations, it's not like that doesn't have a big deal or a big impact on inflation expectations. And it's all over the place, right? It's like literally intraday, hey, we're talking to them, then we're going to bomb them back to hell, right? So, I mean, someone who lives in the States, I mean, it's very, very difficult to sort of keep track hour by hour, let alone day by day.

7:13So yeah, thinking about that crystal ball is very difficult. I guess if we were all crystal ball then, I mean, just if inflation stays elevated, obviously above the 2 % target, then, and the Fed is thinking about rate hikes potentially way more than they're thinking about rate cuts. What does that mean for gold or what can it mean? Is the base case kind of flat to lower or is there an environment where we could see 5 ,000 again? Well, I think a big tell is what central banks are doing with their buying of gold. A central bank is a big ship and for them to turn their policy internally around and buying more gold like most central banks are is a tell of where they think gold is and what gold is used for and in many cases is displacing the USD.

8:16So I only see that as a positive for gold and until we see net less buying or selling from the central banks, I would say we are flat to up rather than flat to down. Yeah. And I know China is still, even though their data can sometimes be difficult to parse, you know, they are still a buyer. So, okay. Now, kind of with that in mind, gold price, you know, we talked about, it's right around that 4 ,000 level, falling about 27 % from the January record, that 5 ,500. Typical gold miner, right, is sitting around a third below its 52-week high. So the move is not quite one-to-one. And then obviously silver has had a much bigger drawdown, about a 50 % drawdown from the January highs of 110.

9:14I think we're sitting around somewhere$55 US. Earnings are coming in literally right by the hour right now. But I know the median sector ASIC was somewhere near$1 ,570 US and out. again so with gold at 4 ,000 you're looking at$2 ,400 a margin which the price of gold was 2 ,400 you know three years ago right so is the market pricing a normalization of margins rather than any real distress and what actually determines kind of which producers retain positive leverage from here yeah I think and as you said we're getting results you know by the hour in on in australia we have the quarterly issue and they've got until tomorrow to to release those quarterlies um but i think you are definitely seeing creep um and and some examples here that i've i've been looking at recently so northern star which is one of australia's largest um largest miners they've gone from 1850 in 2024 all the way up to close to 27 um and and they've had a lot of operational problems mixed with a few different other things.

10:25But then you've got companies like Evolution and Perseus. You know, Perseus being a West African miner. They're running at like, you know,$1 ,200,$1 ,300 all in sustaining costs. So there is that big difference between, you know, location, operations, and then, you know, the bellwether. And I think no matter where you are in the world and eco, really just hold it strong with their all-in sustaining costs and really show what a good business that is. But I think if you're looking at a good gold miner and how they keep the operation leverage and really trying to make sure their costs don't blow out, looking at the types of assets they have, right?

11:15Are they going towards the end of their life? What's the grade doing? what's the hedge book doing so I think as an industry it's hard to say well the whole industry going to creep up or down I think you need to look at a individual individual level and the longer that gold kind of stays up here and there's that much you know price delta between what the all-in sustaining cost is and and what the gold price is you're going to have more M &A I think because obviously, you know, exploration and development projects take so long, it's easier and probably cheaper to just keep rolling up these gold companies.

12:00So yeah, for me, I personally look at, well, what's their portfolio look like? What's their hedge book look like, if any? And just looking at, you know, can anyone get close to a Nikko because they just, you know, kill it. Um, and that's why they're one of the best, one of the best miners in the world. Something you said there kind of reminds me of something I've been seeing out, um, on the internet this, this last couple of days, a lot of commentary on this idea of, you know, maybe this MNA, uh, wave may not be coming in the, the ideas that you, you, you need to have a project and you can build.

12:37Right. And so this idea of the juniors that are kind of hoping to just develop and get taken out, that may not be quite as coming as a lot of them want. I'm just curious if you have any either thoughts on that or if you see any kind of approach differences maybe between the North American market and down in Australia, the juniors down there, if they kind of build to operate or if they kind of build to sell and maybe how that breaks out. Look, I know it's a big thing in the North American markets that CEOs of exploration and development companies is a very forthcoming, like we will never build this mine.

13:16Our intention is to sell it. I would say that is the totally wrong way to actually market your company and attract investors and actually run your company because if you're looking for a discovery, your intention should be to build the mine. And the reason for that is if you get to a place where no one has acquired you, then you get stuck. and the market knows you're a sitting duck. So that only hinders your price. So I would say exploration development companies should just market that they are building them on. Now, if we're talking about gold, I think there's much more opportunities to roll up companies.

14:01And for example, there's two companies, WA Gold Companies, that over the last 18 months have really gone hard doing that and that's Brightstar and another one called Forestania. They've done four or five roll-ups each over the last 12 or 18 months just because there is just so much old pitch, pits, old infrastructure out there. But there will come a time when all that's gone and there's nothing else to roll up. I think if you look at a different commodity like copper, it's very hard to roll up copper. There is hardly anything out there. And I'm happy to touch on this a little bit later, but you really have to look at the commodity to see, well, what's the M &A opportunity like?

14:54Yeah, and I'm glad you touched on copper because it's interesting, like the copper, just the sheer numbers are so different than certainly silver and gold, right? Like a gold, a big CapEx, if you're looking at a billion dollars, a billion dollar CapEx in copper is not big. But that fundamentally changes potentially who can build it. Especially if you're a junior and you have a great resource, but you're a$300 million company or market cap, maybe unlikely that you're going to be able to finance that$1.75 billion copper project. And so the market kind of isn't stupid. People see that. And it does, to your point, I think it can make a junior be stuck, right?

15:35Or the perception that they're stuck. Yeah. The deposit type too, right? Like a porphyry versus a VMS. You know, if it is a copper dominant VMS, there's a good chance that that could probably get into production from a junior. But if it's a porphyry, very little chance. Yep. Yeah, exactly. Well, let's let's stay on that that copper and let's specifically talk about Chile. Chilean output has now fallen year on year for several consecutive months. Storm disruption is running in August. China's refined copper import premium has hit its highest level in over a year kind of against that backdrop. where is the line between a project that is economically attractive on its own merits and one that is genuinely strategic to a government or an end customer um yeah let's let's take it there i'll let you take it there and i'll ask my follow-up yeah i i think um government and and end user i they're really looking for long life and and majors so stuff like in chile or argentina or Peru, they tend to be these big porphyries with very long lives, right?

16:58But other deposits maybe in Australia or in Canada where there are porphyries, but there are smaller VMSs also. So I think from a copper M &A or copper acquisition point of view, there just isn't much out there. And the reason for that, I feel, is it all comes down to this exploration pipeline. There isn't much actually being drilled that is new. It's a lot of old projects being passed around. And on the M &A front, you're not seeing as much M &A because they just physically don't exist. In Australia, we had one this week or end of last week. And it was a development project for around$200 million.

18:00and then we had another one a couple of weeks ago or a month ago and it was around$200 million also. So my fear, especially for copper, is the assets just aren't there. So what does that mean? That means higher prices, that means more M &A, but that also means more exploration and there needs to be a lot more exploration to find these copper deposits because, you know, look at AI data centers, for example, there's just an immense need for more copper. As you can tell, I'm a massive copper bull, but yeah, copper is the one that really scares me. Yeah, so I know recent resources policy study models copper at roughly 83 % of the total mineral mass demanded by AI data centers with grid transmission and distribution taking around two-thirds of that copper, concluding that processing refining capacity rather than, say, geological scarcity is actually the greater supply risk.

19:07So does the investment thesis shift, say, from mine development or, to your point, assets and asset resources to actually sort of developing that refining and conversion capacity? And then I guess I would take that across critical minerals more broadly. does the opportunity sit in discovery, processing capacity, product qualifications, or downstream integration? Just curious your thoughts there. Yeah, I think for copper, it all needs to be looked at. I think there needs to be an immense push on the exploration side. There needs to be an immense push on the policy and the processing side, not policy and processing, policy side for permitting, there needs to be then an immense push on building out the processing capabilities, looking at tailings and recycling and all different things like that.

20:07Because one of them isn't going to change at all and maybe all three of them might, but we need to look at each individual part and then build that together. And with the average mine taking 15 to 17 years, we're already way behind the eight ball. And I think from a policy standpoint also, and talking about investment, the generalist investor is probably a little bit scared looking at those timelines because you look at China and why they actually win at this is because they look at 20 years ahead. where most of the West look in three to four-year election cycles. So why would a large institutional fund put billions into something when a policy might shift and no, they can't build the mine there or no, they can't build the processing there.

21:02So thinking long-term, there really needs to come from the top And the governments need to actually say how important, you know, resources and processing of those resources are for the future. Yeah. And we're seeing I would say in the States, we're seeing a little bit kind of fits and spurts from the Trump administration, depending on which type of critical metals or minerals that you're looking at. And certainly if they're defense related. Right. I think you're going to see a lot of movement on things like tungsten, you know, manganese, certainly nickel, cobalt, copper. obviously, I think, you know, is critical and is on the list, but hasn't been verbalized, I think, in the way that some of those other ones have.

21:51And I do think once that the quiet part about how much copper is needed for these AI data setters, once that quiet part gets spoken out loud, I mean, it, you kind of expect it to first be reflected in the price, right? Now does six become the floor? And I think to your point, it's interesting when you think about M &A for some of these projects, these mines and copper's at all-time highs. Well, the buyer's not going to model that price, but the seller might be saying, hey, copper's not going back down to$4 anytime soon. But that does create, I think, a bit of a disconnect. I am curious, sort of, you know, because you are so keen on the exploration front, like Chile, obviously very well known.

22:41Argentina has opened up in the last, you know, two, three years, right, since Malay was elected there. Are you seeing

22:51more in exploration dollars being put into Argentina for large-scale copper projects, large-scale natural resources projects. I wonder if that's something that you're seeing or if the investment environment is still volatile. Yeah, look, I think from an Australian ASX perspective, a couple of years ago, there was hardly anything being put into South America. Now there is a bit more. ASX resource investors just don't or can't get themselves around porphyries. They're all about grade. Anything that is below 1 % or 2 % copper, they think is just a write-off. Yet you see a porphyry hit and it's a couple of hundred meters and it's 0.5%.

23:44In the Canadian markets, that will be loved. but down here. So it's an education piece and you are seeing it more, I think, in the TSX, CSE markets, more dollars being put there. But there needs to be a lot more. And also some of those areas in South America, they still have their social issues and that is what it is. And the junior companies actually just need to go out there and work with the locals to see how they can push those projects forward. Yeah, recent federal election in Peru, seems like that's kind of, now that that's settled, mine policy should be more of the same from at least what I'm seeing with Fujimori winning that election.

24:38So kind of staying on some of the critical metals, AI infrastructure, just a question about rare earths. and rare earth permanent magnets, right? So, you know, the study we mentioned, the resources policy study, flagged that rare earth permanent magnets and grain-oriented electrical steel are overlooked constraints in the AI infrastructure. It's not just semiconductors. Why do you think those bottlenecks attracted, you know, such little capital relative to the chip supply chain? Yeah, I think, you know, looking at rare earths, rare earths aren't actually that rare. there's plenty out there and there's plenty to be mined.

25:20What actually needs to change in the whole magnet, AI, rare earths piece is the processing. And because that processing is specialized and dirty and no one wants it in their own backyard, until that mindset changes and until America, US, Canada, whoever in the West can build out that processing of those rare earths, then I think we won't have the capital to put into the system. because a lot of these rare earth processing facilities in China are in the middle of nowhere or they're leaking toxic gases or toxic liquids into the communities or they're on the Mongolian borders, right? So there needs to be a lot of thought and a lot of time put into, well, how do we actually build out these full supply chains?

26:22So not just, yes, we're going to build a stockpile or yes, we're going to build a processing plan on an army base. Like how do we actually go from exploration, development, mine, processing and customer? And how can we do that completely in the West? And that takes time, effort, money, everyone working together. You know, the US is definitely pushing ahead with that a lot more than a lot of other places. You know, EU is just the frustrating one here that, you know, they've got granted projects. But what does that actually mean? Does that mean that project can be a mine and the EU government is actually going to push that forward?

27:09No, it doesn't. So there needs to be capital coming from these governments, policy support, people support, the whole thing. if they want to get behind this, not just a tick of approval and not just a nice rubber stamp, because at the end of the day, that means nothing. Doesn't mean that mine, that processing plant is going to be built. Yeah, I think to your point, like it can't just be a marketing slogan, but also there is a very real lack of human capital and, you know, to do these refining and processing. And China has been doing it so much longer that it's not the same. I mean, North America obviously has a very strong, you know, mining labor force, but refining and conversion, things like that, just not here.

27:58And so it has to be something that I, I mean, certainly I hope it continues across multiple administrations, regardless of party, because it does need to be a long game. You know, you need to think of it that way. Yeah, look, and something you probably just, you touched on, and it's something I do think about a lot. Yes, America has a strong mining workforce, but in Australia, we have universities closing down that had these university courses for geologists. And because there hasn't been that much investment in the US or in Australia, and because mining has been so frowned on for so long, we actually don't have the pipeline of people coming through with the degrees that we need to actually, you know, go put these mines into production or build out these processing plants, as you said.

28:53So I actually think the people part is going to be a real bottleneck over the next few, maybe five years until, you know, governments are going to have to subsidize the education or, you know, mining needs to look cool to the teenagers for them to want to be in it. And that's a massive piece within itself. Yeah, absolutely. Absolutely. No, it has to be. And that's going to have to start here, at least with a conversation about, hey, you know, the conversation about rare earths cannot be simply just that we're demonizing China and that these things are, you know, words that you don't know how to pronounce.

29:31Like there does need to be a pipeline of like, hey, here's how you go and get the skills needed to go mine NDPR or, you know, whatever it is and how to run, how to be a journalist or how to look at core, how to log core, things like that. And that's that's definitely not it's definitely not top of mind to your point. So, OK, so kind of sticking sticking with that with with rare earths and we can stick with China a little bit and we're not going to we're not going to demonize them per se because they've just kind of played the game better than everybody else. But like, you know, want to ask about NDPR and Bloomberg Intelligence Forecast, China's NDPR market share falling from about 90 percent from 2024 to just about 69 percent by 2030.

30:20And the IEA has has rare earth refining share falling from over 90 percent back in 2023 to about 20 to about 85 percent. So. The heavy rare separation does remain that 99 percent China. That is a Chinese-owned game right now. So how do you weigh risk and reward on Western projects given that their end customer is China, right? And China sets the price in a lot of sense. You know, if prices are held low for 24 months, how does a Western developer survive? Yeah, well, I think just looking at MP Materials and setting that price floor was a line in the sand. I know that probably a lot of other rare earth developers or producers in the US probably ask the question, well, why MP and why not us?

31:18I've read a couple of articles, I think at the end of last week, where people are realizing that they still need to send the stuff to China to be processed or China adjacent. to be processed so i think if going back to your question if there is going to be you know 24 months of you know cheaper prices this is where the government needs to step in and put these price floors and put these guarantees because otherwise these these projects won't get into production and there needs to be the time lag for the processing to be built on shore so then they can build out those supply chains and once again it goes back to actually having the whole supply chain thought about from expiration to end customer rather than these individual pieces because then there's more certainty if a project is going to be built or backed to be built.

32:23And also back to the policy piece, are the investors or the funders, are they worried about, well, if there's an election coming up, is the next government going to change their stance and then they're going to remove the price floor so how do we keep these things in place i don't know but uh there there needs to be people stepping up and saying well we're going to do this because we need to think 20 years ahead if we want to stay in the game yeah and and not to beat this with a hammer but i think the people capital on the government side is is is not there yet as well and and that's just because this this stuff is it's not new but it's definitely new in terms of the government thinking about having ownership in a linus or an mp materials or you know or or fun you know creating a project vault like i mean that is something that should have happened a long time ago and should have had a lot needs to have a lot more money to it but i think the government still doesn't know how to evaluate an NDPR, let alone a tungsten project or a nickel project.

33:39That's just not that's not how they've operated. And it's going to take time. You know, it's going to it's going to take time and it's going to take multiple cycles, I think. And so, you know, it'd be definitely something to watch, I would say. And hopefully, like I said, hopefully it does stay across multiple administrations and multiple departments. certainly should trickle down from the federal level to even the state level to support projects that are going to create local job forces and kind of, you know, bring the revenue. And I think that's global, right? That's Europe, Australia, Canada, US, Africa.

34:18I think there needs to be just a global cohesion of this is the plan and we're not going to falter from the plan. Hey, stay right there. We'll be right back after a very short break. In mining, the difference between a good project and a great investment often comes down to one thing, visibility. Terra Hutton is a Sweden-based mining investor platform built to make the invisible investable. Even the strongest project can be overlooked. Geology is inherently complex and data heavy. and when it's reduced to raw numbers like drill results and technical reports, investors can miss the story and companies can miss out on investments.

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35:38Hey everyone, Justin Hewn of Uranium Insider here, inviting you to check out the Going Nuclear podcast, co-hosted by yours truly and Trevor Hall and produced by the Clear Commodity Network. Each episode, we dive deep into the uranium sector and the fast-evolving world of nuclear energy and uranium investment. From supply dynamics to policy developments and market trends, we bring you the insights that matter most to energy investors and industry watchers. You can find Going Nuclear on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and at clearcommodity.net. Clear Commodity Network, digital news on the physical markets.

36:15yeah i mean i i won't soapbox too much but i mean you you are seeing just these the vc money that is going into anything that has the letters ai and it's like 10 20 50 70 billion dollar valuations and it's like what an infusion of that kind of money could do to you know junior mining or or or mid-sized mining i mean would be massive i mean you're talking about project like the amount of money that that these these a lot of these projects are trying to raise like it's it's a lot of money but 500 million dollars is nothing when you compare say what what what money is going to literally anything ai right now and so there's such a disconnect there right oh and and and the funny thing is they don't actually happen without mining uh and look i've i've had my fair share of meetings with VCs about this and once they actually realize it, their face drops.

37:13So yeah, I agree. At the end of the day, if we don't mine it, we farm it. So the buck stops and starts with the resource industry and everything should flow on from there and it just doesn't. um so hopefully i think people are waking up um you know love trump or hate trump he has probably been the best thing for the global resource industry in a long time from making everyone aware of what's needed um but yeah i think it's still a long way to go yeah for sure and i i do think that price will be somewhat reflective of that when that attention comes in Right. Like all of a sudden it becomes a scarcity issue versus something that is, you know, we can buy at any price we want.

38:06We can wait by later because we know supply will be there. If supply is not there, then price will respond. Right. If all of a sudden the data center can't get the copper it needs or can't if the Department of War can't get the tungsten it needs. I mean, tungsten is I keep going back to it because tungsten price has just shot up over the last, you know, 10 months. Right. And that's you know, that doesn't exist in a vacuum. I mean, that can happen with other elements. That can happen with anything else that's mined. And when people, I think, realize that they have to buy it no matter what the price is, then you start seeing price respond.

38:40Yeah. Look, and, you know, copper is a big one for that. I think we're starting to see a bit of move on like Scandium. Yeah. You look at the supply chain for Scandium and you look at how many actual resources there are globally. It's frightening. So, yeah. Yeah, that's the, what, 30, it's a small, it's small usage, right, overall in terms of volume, 30 tons or something like that. Like not 30 million tons, I think, right, but it's like 30 actual tons. But non-China, I might butcher this, so correct me, but non-China is 13, you know, produced or something like that, you know, so. Yeah, I don't know the numbers off the top of my head, but I just remember there was something put out like two weeks ago and trying to source Scandium from non-China is basically impossible because it doesn't exist, right?

39:37So, yeah, we're seeing a couple of ASX companies really pushing hard on that now. There was a TSX company last week, I think, that had a bit of a run on it. But I think we will see these, you know, niche metals as things come in and out of news cycles. They will have their runs because people realize, well, what is actually out there? We understand the strategic importance of certain metals. Hundreds of projects claim strategic importance, yet very few do reach construction. You know, what in your mind actually separates a financeable critical minerals project from one with just attractive geology and maybe a strong narrative or a charming CEO?

40:22Yeah, I think something that's actually going to become a mine, right? And for something to become a mine, a lot of things need to go right. So you need to have the right rocks. It needs to be in the right location from a policy and a people perspective. It needs to have a long life. The economics need to stack up if there isn't a price for or not. So I think there's a lot of waivers or backing or offtakes that get thrown around. But at the end of the day, what actually is going to become a mine still is just going to be this finite number. So when I would say an investor looks at a company or a project, you need to take all of those things into perspective and not just rely on, well, the government's going to back this no matter what.

41:23Because there is multiple projects out there and we go back to the EU having these EU-backed projects. What does that actually mean? Does it mean that project is going to become a mine with the full EU backing? No. Let's see. So no one should bring up Norway or Finland right now, right? Yeah. Yeah, my microphone will be going out the window. Yeah. So, yeah, I think the projects need to stack up on their own economics. and then if it has the government's okay or approval or offtake, that's just another string in the bow. Yeah. Yeah, so I mean, I want to get a little bit granular without having you speak on specific companies, but I'm curious if you're seeing what is commanding premiums right now and sort of maybe the first question would be around, let's say it's jurisdiction.

42:26Like I know there's been some M &A activity this year, and I'll just bring up an example of maybe a jurisdiction that probably got downgraded, which is Ghana, right, which introduced a pretty hefty royalty, right? So what are you seeing in maybe, you know, what is tier one still tier one? Tier two is still, or two and three and four kind of jumping? Like what commands a premium for, say, a project? Is it just, you know, is it just having that 40-year mine life? is having that tier one jurisdiction? Is it, you know, what is it in your mind? Yeah, I think, and something that I do here at Cabo, we actually look at projects daily and companies and groups actually come to us saying, hey, we're looking for X, Y, Z project for this amount in this jurisdiction, this commodity.

43:19So, you know, it depends where the company is in its life cycle. So, for example, if it's an exploration company, they're very open to most places in Africa, you know, the West being the West, some of Europe. But as you move up the development timeline, there is definitely a command for, you know, safer jurisdictions. And even, you know, for example, Namibia is known for probably being one of the safest, if not the safest or best in Africa. And only a couple of weeks ago, we saw, you know, an ASX listed company have to, you know, pull out of a project for DD reasons in a project in Namibia, right?

44:17So I think Africa still gets put into this is Africa no matter where, but still even in Australia, right? Like there is good jurisdictions in Australia, but there's also really hard ones. and there's been plenty of examples of mines that are at FID about to be built and government coming in and stopping that moving forward because of a native title issue or something like that. So it really goes back to what government's in place and what they actually want to do. you know talking about Norway and Finland there's there's good you know two years ago Finland was voted the the top mining jurisdiction in the world and I was just gobsmacked by that because you know in a past life in a past role I've just seen the bureaucracy that goes on in Finland so I you can't wrap a whole country into a tier one I think it needs to be area by area and even at the project level too.

45:33Okay. Okay. Yeah, staying with Australia, you know, ASX materials sector finished fiscal year 2026 up roughly 47%, kind of outperforming every other positive sector combined before a June unwind driven by falls in copper, gold, iron ore, oil. Since recovered, meanwhile, while the Fed here is moving from pricing cuts to debating hikes, as we mentioned, kind of read as a global signal rather than an Australian one. What does that sequence tell us about generalist risk appetite? What happens to the equity issuance window for explorers and developers if rates do rise, at least here in the United States?

46:17Yeah, so I think this is definitely a per market thing too. Like, yes, the Australian market had a great year last year but Australia definitely has more headwinds than most going into seeking investment for exploration development companies and a big headwind at the moment is the current government has put new policy or expected policy in place around capital gains tax and this is really frightening investors especially in the junior sector so I do think if this policy does come in place we will see less funding actually going into the asx companies and um you know two years ago i remember being at pdac and almost every single canadian company was talking about wanting to be on the asx because you know the funding pool is much easier and it's it's much more liquidity there for them.

47:21But now that we're seeing this change in Australia, I do think it could start trickling the other way. We might see more companies trying to dualist or move completely over to the Canadian markets or heaven forbid, could the London markets open up again? So I think once again, it depends on macro factors completely. from a rate, rate, height point of view, macro factors from a, well, do we need a more metals point of view? And then micro factors from a, well, what's happening in that country to be able to raise individual capital? Yeah, we've talked about gold and copper, rare earths, you know, a commodity near and dear to my heart, uranium.

48:12I was really hoping that Australia would allow uranium mining in more than just the two states that it allows. But that, I think, got shot down pretty hard last year. I mean, just curious, you're on the ground. Is there any sense or appetite that that is changing or is that still driven by environmental concerns, social license issues, green energy movements? Any color you can kind of add there? Yeah, look, the North American markets are definitely, they've got more uranium companies, that's for sure. And there are few and far between uranium exploration development and miners on the ASX. But, you know, fun fact that Australia has the largest global reserve of uranium, right?

49:04Right. And there is a couple of people and, you know, a good friend of mine, Jono, who's the MD and very vocal on social media of Cauldron Energy here in Australia. He is pushing government. He's pushing everyone to especially open up WA for uranium mining. So there was something two weeks ago that there was a pact between India and Australia for more uranium to flow to India. So that's at a federal level where we need it to really open up at the state level. But let's see if the current government, federal government can put more pressure on the state governments to open this up because that opens up a lot.

49:56that will really push a lot of companies from a valuation perspective. But I do think there'll be a lot more uranium exploration in Australia if they open up those possibilities. It's just absolutely crazy that it doesn't happen. And yeah, it's funny. We're so anti-nuclear, yet we're happy to have nuclear submarines. And what's the difference between that and the reactor? Yeah. Or a uranium mine that is heavily regulated and safe. And you can ship that uranium to India, which is building out a very large reactor fleet as they have a very big hunger for energy. Well, listen, just a couple more, Scott.

50:44Thank you for coming on today. I want to ask you kind of a little bit about the North American sector, mining sector, and maybe you compare to contrast this to ASX or Australia. But, you know, if the consensus on gold and copper deficits and rarer supply shifts kind of is broadly right, why has that North American mining sector not captured more investor attention kind of maybe relative to global peers? Or are you seeing are you still seeing North American mining sector sort of lead the way or not not so much? And sort of what do you think any catalyst would be that might move mainstream capital back into the sector?

51:25Yeah, I think, and going back to the point I said before, you know, 18 months, two years ago, there was no hunger to be a listed company in Canada. But I do think the tides are shifting. I know that, you know, speaking to friends, speaking to companies in Canada, it is getting easier to raise capital.

51:52I am seeing a lot more companies SPACs going to US listings so that is you know very positive these things don't happen overnight right it takes long lead times for people to change their way of thinking to have the right people in the right analyst roles to make mining aware and for these big sovereign wealth funds to change where they divert their money to. So I do think it will happen. I'm actually working with the Saudi government and the FMF. We're putting on an event in New York in October and talking about, well, how do we get this generalist money and those big funds and the big sovereigns and everything to put more money into the supply chain of the natural resource sector.

52:52So there are these conversations happening and there are people and organizations trying to push that forward. But 18 months, two years, I don't think it's going to happen overnight. Let's see where we are in five years. I do think we'll get there. I think the tide has turned. People are really waking up to what this industry is and what it provides. And hopefully for all of us that are part of it, it's an exciting ride. Yeah, it certainly is exciting right now. I mean, certainly not... If you ride the gold price every day right now, you're in the toilet. But if you've been following it... Yeah, yeah, you're chopped up.

53:34Everything's an exciting time. There's a lot of activity for sure. Well, if people want to know more about you, more about Kamoa, where do they go? What should they do? How do they find out? Yeah. So I'm pretty active on LinkedIn, just Scott North. I have a website, KamoaCap.com. We also put out a twice daily newsletter summarizing both markets. And we put out a Sunday newsletter that just summarizes the whole week across all markets. It's completely free. Yeah. And I guess just kind of maybe tell us kind of one thing that you've been working on there with Kamoa that you've been excited about or that's upcoming that you're really excited about.

54:17Could be a company that you're talking with or a sector or a news flow or something that kind of maybe just reminds you why you do this every day. I definitely feel like there are more companies and more people wanting to be involved. involved in the industry. So something that I'm really passionate about is just making people aware of our industry and helping educate that. So we do that through our newsletter. But then also working with companies on how did they build out their own supply chains. So not just being a but also being a processing company to also, you know, selling products. So, um, we, we don't get involved with, with all companies or all groups, but we, we get involved with, with groups that we see, uh, long-term benefits for them and they actually will be, you know, building products and, and turning exploration projects into mine.

55:22So that's, that's what I'm very excited about. Awesome. Well, Scott, thank you so much for coming on today and really appreciate your insight and your thoughts and we'll look to have you back on again sometime. Thanks. Thanks, Ian. The information presented should not be considered investment advice. Mining Stock Daily and its affiliates are not responsible for any loss arising from any investment decision in connection with the material presented herein. Please do your own research or speak with a licensed financial representative before making any investment decisions.