Cable News Gears up for Election Day & America's Homebuyers are Older Than Ever

0:00I'm NFL linebacker TJ Watt and this is my personal best. YPB by Abercrombie is the activewear I'm always wearing. That's why I reached out to co-design their latest drop. I worked with designers to create high-performance activewear that holds up to my toughest workouts. Shop YPB by Abercrombie in-store, online, and in the app. Because your personal best is greater than anything.

0:29Good Morning Brew Daily Show. I'm Neil Freiman. And I'm Toby Howell. Today, election day is here. We'll run down what to expect as the votes start rolling in. Then the presidential race isn't the only issue on the ballot in Florida today. Voters will also decide whether to legalize recreational marijuana. It's Tuesday, November 5th. Let's ride.

0:53Good morning and happy election day. Ever wonder why Americans vote on a random Tuesday in November and not, you know, a more convenient time? It's all to accommodate 19th century farmers who accounted for the majority of the labor force. In 1845, Congress passed a law that designated Election Day as the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November because a November Tuesday was considered the most favorable time for farmers to vote. The month wasn't a super busy period on the agricultural calendar. Weekends were a no-go because of church. Wednesdays were market days, and politicians didn't want to compete against Thursday night football.

1:29So by process of elimination, here we are, a Tuesday in November. It always comes back to the farmers. But in modern times, there has been some pushback to putting Election Day on a random Tuesday, as you called it. First of all, less than 2 % of Americans work in agriculture these days. But also, people have proposed moving Election Day to a weekend or making Election Day a federal holiday to increase voter turnout because it's hard to sometimes get off work on a Tuesday. Also, in general, mail-in ballots in early voting have made Election Day more like Election Week. I've been seeing a lot of people rocking I voted stickers already.

2:05So times are shifting, but for now, it still is Tuesday, November 5th. Now, a word from today's sponsor, Yahoo Finance. Neil, Election Day, big day for the country, but also big day for your brokerage account. Yeah, the only thing that we know for certain is that the market does not like uncertainty. Sneaking a peek at how your portfolio is doing will only go so far in helping you understand why your stocks might be reacting the way they are. It's in those moments where Yahoo Finance can be so helpful. Instead of just looking at if things are red or green, go a level deeper with their detailed research reports or up-to-date news stories.

2:39It's basically what we do every day on the show, read a lot of stuff and make sense of it for you all. Yahoo Finance is almost like your own personal, Neil and Toby, when it comes to your finances. But it can never replace Neil's numbers, so don't you worry. If you want to stay in the loop today and all days, check out yahoofinance.com.

3:22On brand with Jimmy Fallon. Series premiere Tuesday on NBC. Well, the political equivalent of the Olympics is here, but instead of switching between group stage rugby, pairs archery and gymnastics, we'll be digesting voter tallies from the Philly suburbs, Milwaukee and Mecklenburg County, North Carolina. To help Americans make sense of the numbers coming in tonight are TV news networks like CNN, Fox News, NBC, ABC, CBS, who for decades have been the go to source for election coverage in the United States. They have been preparing years for today, which has historically ranked among the most viewed broadcasts of the year.

3:57And they're going all out. Expect panels overflowing with analysts, fancy data visualizations, reporters at polling stations, Steve Kornacki in front of his big board, but bigger and more tech-infused than ever before. But if I had to describe the biggest change coming to election night broadcast this year, it's one word, transparency. Last month, a Gallup survey showed that trust in mass media reached a new low with misleading accusations of voter fraud flying around social media and the public not at all clear on the process of projecting winners. Network execs say they'll go above and beyond to show their work to viewers.

4:30Yeah, one way that they're doing that is putting a lot more power in your fingertips, in your pockets to follow the election. I mean, the magic wall at CNN is no longer just on your TV with John King standing by. By now, it is actually an unpaywalled feature within their app, so you can tap and explore each race, and you can feel like John King at home. You are right, though, that there is a lot more different tech being rolled out this election. One thing that I want to call it, too, is Peacock is just doing this thing where they're turning everything into NFL red zone. They did it for the Olympics, which was awesome.

5:02They are now doing it for this election as well. You can switch between the breaking news. You can switch between the real-time results. Obviously, Kornacki cam as well to see how he's rocking the khakis. So, yeah, there's just reinventing and rethinking the way that people can follow the election this this time around. And a bunch of news outlets say they're going to put more boots on the ground. The AP is going to deploy roughly. I didn't believe this was real, but four thousand reporters in precincts across the country to be their eyes and ears as all of the ballots are counted. There will be a bunch of other news outlets are also sending hundreds and thousands of reporters to various poll ballot stations.

5:38So you will be able to see the ballots being counted in this election more so than any other. And this is obviously a counterweight to a lot of the misinformation that's been spread around voter fraud and things like that. Another thing you'll see a lot of, lawyers. So already this race has been the most litigated in American history. We haven't even reached Election Day yet. So along with those panels of analysts, the talking heads that you'll see, they're going to bring in a lot of lawyers to help break down a lot of the legal matters that pop up, as they will, over the course of election night.

6:11And as we're talking about these projections, who's going to win and why they win these states, how are they, how are these projections made? You know, like when that dramatic music plays, Wolf Blitzer says CNN has a projection to make. We can now call Florida for Donald Trump or Kamala Harris will win New York. These groups employ a team of election geeks that put tons and tons of data, both current and historical, into a model. And when that math equation reaches a certain confidence level that a candidate is going to win a race, they make a call. Yeah, diving into that math piece a little bit, the way that the AP calls a race, for instance, is that they call it when there's no way for the trailing candidate to catch up.

6:46But these days, it's not just that they call the race. It's that they also show kind of the methodology and the process behind it. It used to be even 10 years ago, the AP would make a race call, and that was just accepted as a race call. There weren't a ton of questions about it, but now they are kind of going behind the scenes, revealing their process a little bit to increase that confidence level in these election calls, especially as there is more kind of misinformation floating around these days. They can't just say that, hey, we've been 99 percent accurate in the past. Just trust us, bro.

7:15Now there's a lot more show their work out there these days. That's probably why there are only three firms really that can do this. And Decision Desk HQ says that their proxy for when they'll call a race is that three of the 15 gurus on their team have a 99.9 percent confidence that a candidate is going to win a race based on their mathematical model. And whether people will even watch all this play out on TV is a key question. As you know, TV networks are losing out to the Internet as a place where people get their news. And so it goes on Election Day 2. Websites publish up-to-the-minute voting data.

7:47Political influencers are going to host live streams on their Twitch channels. And of course, Twitter is going to see a surge in interest. And there's evidence that just like other TV broadcasts, election coverage is seeing a big dip in viewership. In 2020, 57 million people tuned in during primetime to watch the votes get counted. That's almost 15 million fewer than in 2016. All of these kind of news outlets are trying to grab attention in different ways. One way, for instance, the New York Times is trying to grab attention is with the needle. It's this meter that fluctuates as it measures kind of the probability that one presidential candidate will win.

8:22It's not necessarily where the race currently stands. It is the probability that one candidate will win at the current moment. But the needle could be in trouble this time around because New York Times Tech Guild announced Monday morning that is officially undergoing an unfair labor practice strike. So just one day, obviously, before the presidential election. So there is a little bit of nerviness around if the site and the needle can handle the traffic without the tech workers kind of behind the scenes maintaining it. But you're right. It is an all out battle for eyeballs these days. Yeah, I mean, this is this strike is a big deal.

8:52It's the first such labor stoppage to coincide with the presidential election in 60 years. And you have New York Times management very publicly seething that their tech workers would go on strike during Election Day, which is probably going to be the most trafficked day of the year for the New York Times website. There's so much data to collate. People are going to go there for results. And the management is like, you could have picked any other 364 days of the year. But the Tech Guild is responding and saying, no, we want to make this painful for you because you have not met our demands. So we'll see whether the New York Times tech breaks over the course of today where they're going to get a ton of traffic.

9:31The final thing to know about election night is there's a good chance we aren't going to know who was elected president tonight. With the surge in early and mail-in voting, some key states are going to take days to provide a full tally. Remember, four years ago, it took four days before President Biden was projected to eclipse the 270 electoral votes needed to win the election. So just saying, be prepared not just for election night, but election week. Right. It is different across states to battleground states, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin. election workers are not allowed to begin processing mailed in ballots until election day, which is why sometimes we'll see those elongated timelines.

10:08But you are right. Timeline is stretching these days. It is not just election night. You know, you know, now it is going to more than likely take multiple days to declare a winner. While Floridians turn out to vote today, they won't just be deciding on a presidential candidate, but also the future of marijuana in the sunshine state. Amendment 3 is a ballot measure that aims to legalize recreational marijuana use for adults in the state. A yes vote opens marijuana up for personal non-medical reasons, while a no vote would keep marijuana confined to medical use only. It's a vote that has brought out some major power players on both sides in a high-profile and expensive weed war.

10:48On the vote no side, you have Governor Ron DeSantis and billionaire Ken Griffin, who has been funding a campaign against the referendum in Florida. On the other side, you have Donald Trump, who said he plans to vote yes on Amendment 3, John Morgan, a powerful injury lawyer from Florida who calls himself Pot Daddy, and obviously the entire cannabis industry. So far, DeSantis' side has been woefully outgunned, raising about$24 million, half of which came from new Florida resident Ken Griffin, which is a pittance compared to the$145 million pumped into a pro-weed campaign by a single company, True Leave Cannabis.

11:23So, Neil, we're calling this a weed war, but right now one side is getting outspent nine to one. So it's not looking like a very fair fight. No, but polls show that this is going to be close. Florida needs 60 percent of voters to pass these ballot measures. And the polls show that it's right about at 60 percent. This is not just a Florida story. This is a national story, because if recreational marijuana is legalized in Florida, That means about 60 percent of the U.S. population would have access to recreational weed. Twenty four states have already legalized it. And Florida is a massive market.

12:00Twenty three million people, 140 million visit each year. So people who are pro cannabis legalizing it say Florida really is the tipping point where it could become legalized at a federal level because of just how many people just how many people live there, just how many people visit there every single year. And if, you know, as Florida goes, so goes the country. And they're thinking that Florida could be that if they do pass, this could spur that wave of momentum to get this recognized at the federal level. And you're right. Even though there is some discrepancy in spending, it is a pretty close measure right now.

12:33It does require that 60 percent threshold to pass. Recent poll by FAU and mainstream research showed that 56 percent of voters supported legalization, 34 percent opposed it, 6 percent were undecided. And that the support was obviously mostly coming from the 18 to 49 year old bracket. So it is just another thing to look at because you're right, even though it is just Florida we're talking about, it does have national scale implications and could be the thing that tips it over to legalizing marijuana federally. And while we're on the subject, there are a bunch of referendums across state ballots.

13:06Voters in 10 states are going to decide whether to enshrine abortion rights in their state constitutions, including Arizona, Florida, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, and Nebraska. That would be the most significant expansion of abortion access since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade. affordable housing is on the ballot in Los Angeles, San Francisco, Denver, New Orleans, and Rhode Island. And as we'll talk about later on the show, housing has been a huge issue in this election. Then finally, Alaska, Missouri, and California are going to vote on lifting the minimum wage. Speaking of housing, up next, some surprising stats about who is buying houses these days.

13:44This episode is brought to you by State Farm. Checking off the boxes on your to-do list is a great feeling. And when it comes to checking off coverage, a State Farm agent can help you choose an option that's right for you. Whether you prefer talking in person, on the phone, or using the award-winning app, it's nice knowing you have help finding coverage that best fits your needs. Like a good neighbor, State Farm is there.

14:10The spirit of innovation is deeply ingrained in America, and Google is helping Americans innovate in ways both big and small. From improving emergency response times to protecting against cyber attacks, local, state, and federal governments are innovating with Google AI. This is a new era of American innovation. Find out more at g.co slash American innovation. A new report out yesterday highlights just how difficult it is to become a first-time homebuyer in this era of sky-high housing prices. Americans who bought homes for the first time between July 2023 and June 2024 were older and richer than ever before, according to a National Association of Realtors survey.

14:53Don't remember, Nick, at night? You've probably been priced out of a starter home. The typical first-time homebuyer rose to 38 years old, a new record high. For context, a typical first-time homebuyer was in their late 20s a generation ago. Meanwhile, Meanwhile, the median household income of a first-time homebuyer rose to$97 ,000, up$26 ,000 in just two years, and a record high of 7 % of first-time buyers tapped an inheritance to afford their down payment. The numbers point to a housing market that is increasingly out of reach for younger people looking to make the big rent-to-own shift that millennials call adulting.

15:30The NAR's deputy chief economist put it like this. We're seeing a dichotomy in this real estate market where those first-time homebuyers are not just your traditional first-time buyers like school teachers or first responders really entering the market. The people who can get in are really a select few. And talk about a select few. In the last year, first-time buyers accounted for just 24 % of all homebuyers, the lowest share on record. You know those memes comparing what you were doing when you were 28 to what your parents were doing when you were 28? It's actually playing out in real life because, I mean, you go back to the 80s now.

16:03The median age of a first-time buyer is a decade older than it was back then. So it is not just a joke. It really is. Everyone is getting older because you have to make more money to afford these things. And a lot of the houses are just going to richer households. I mean, that stat, that the median income of a first-time buyer jumped$26 ,000 to nearly$100 ,000, is just an insane thing in the span of just a few years that we're talking about. So housing market is getting older. You have to be richer and you probably aren't seeing the same sort of homebuyers that you saw even a few decades ago. Another trend I want to call out is the amount of homes owned by single women.

16:43So in 2022, single women owned 58 % of the homes owned by unmarried Americans. Single men owned 42%. And this report is showing that the gap is only increasing. About 20 % of homes were purchased by single women in that time span last year, compared with 8 % of single men. So that is a very interesting trend to watch. Single women are much more likely to be homeowners than single men. You're seeing a lot more empty nesters. 73 % of all buyers have no child under 18 at home this year, which is up from 70 % last year. And the final trend, there's a lot more multi-generational living. We talked about this boom-ate trend of people living of millennials living with boomers that is actually happening multi-generational living is reached a record high of 17 in the last year according to the survey and part of the reason is that no one can really find a house because a lot of people are staying put for longer before the great recession 2008 2009 people stay in their homes for an average about six years now people are holding on to their homes for an average of 10 years part of the reason is that interest rates have just been super low so we call it call it like the golden in handcuffs if you don't want to exit a house with a great interest rate to buy a new house with a much higher mortgage rate.

18:00So that is some of the reason why the housing market is so clogged up and why you might be having an older roommate these days because people want more affordability. Older people are the ones with houses. They are empty nesters. So that is why the boom mate trend is on the rise as well. Like those little magic grow capsules that expand when you put them in water, TVs are undergoing a jumbo transformation themselves. Gone are the days when 65-inch screens were considered above average. Today, it's all about flat screens the size of sofas, a trend I want to talk about on today's edition of Toby's Trends.

18:35There have been over 38 million television sets sold with a width of at least 97 inches in the first nine months of the year. That is 10 times the amount sold over the same period last year, according to market research firm, Surkana. Why the huge spike? Well, like Tom Brady late in his career, TVs are getting better and less expensive. If we go back even as recently as 2019, Samsung unveiled a 98-inch TV that cost $99 ,000. Now, the company has four versions of that size, starting at just$4 ,000. Overall, the average price for TVs that are 97 inches and up is just$3 ,113 this year, down from$6 ,600 in 62 last year.

19:19Neil, we're talking about TVs that are the same width as a king size bed here, but sometimes bigger just really is better. How do people have space for this? That was the biggest question for me because I feel like you need a football field length from put your sofa down there for a hundred inch screen TV at the other end zone for it to be safe for you. But actually, the recommended distance for a 98 inch TV is just six to 12 feet from the seating area. So maybe not impossible for people with bigger houses. The rule of thumb here is to multiply the diagonal length of the TV by 1.2 to determine the ideal viewing distance.

19:56That said, Best Buy has deployed their geek squad and certain AR technology to make sure that you can fit these massive TVs through your door and up the stairs and whatever you need so it fits in your living space. But we are seeing a big emergence of massive TVs. I just want to point out, it still accounts for just 1.7 % of all revenue from TV set sales during the first nine months of the year. So this is still a niche market. If you walk into a house and see somebody with a hundred inch TV, they are an outlier, but it does seem to be growing. Just directionally though, it is an interesting purchase cycle.

20:32Televisions, people usually only buy a TV every seven years or so, but when they do, they do typically choose bigger ones because you never want to go from what you were at to downsizing. Also, the pandemic accelerated this giganticism trend, if you want to call it, because as you're spending more time at home, people are like, might as well upgrade it. So screen size is actually increased by an average of two inches in both 2021 and 2022 compared to the usual one inch increase in size. So I think that it speaks to another post-pandemic trend as well. Bigger TVs are better for hosting people. that are better for having a shared watching experience.

21:09So I do think, especially emerging from the pandemic, people are like, why are we even holding back here? Let's invite people over for the game. Let's invite people over for the movie night. And the best way to do that is with the biggest TV possible. And the multi-screen viewing experience too. I know YouTube TV lets you have, basically quad box it so you can watch multiple things at once. So while the rest of us have our laptops opened to one thing and the TV on another, with these big TVs, You can just get three or four TV shows going at once. OK, let's sprint to the finish with some final headlines.

21:40We have a deal, folks. Striking Boeing workers voted to accept a new contract from the company, ending an eight-week-long strike that had frozen production and cost the planemaker more than$100 million in revenue every day. After rejecting the previous three contracts offered by Boeing, workers decided the latest one was the best they would get. It includes a 38 % wage increase over four years and more retirement contributions. Toby, ending this strike was number one on new CEO Kelly Ortberg's to-do list. I mean, they finally did it. The workers did not get the reinstatement of the company's pension plan that they were after.

22:15They did get those increased 401k benefits. But also, you have to remember, too, that even though 59 % voted yes, 41 % did still vote no on this. So the kind of union leadership are saying, hey, we're going to press for even better terms in 2028. So maybe we'll be sitting in these chairs having a very similar conversation a little bit down the road. Elon Musk's$1 million a day giveaway scheme in key swing states has been allowed to proceed by a Pennsylvania state judge after the Philadelphia DA sued to block the contest for being an illegal lottery. Oddly enough, the argument America PAC's lawyers made was that the free cash was not a prize, but was actually a payment for the recipients to act as spokespeople for the pro-Trump pact.

23:00So less of a lottery and more of a poorly framed compensation scheme for supporters of Elon's favored presidential candidate. It appears this hearing really hinged on the definition of chance and lottery and what was meant by random because remember Elon Musk said, we're going to be awarding a million dollars randomly to people who have signed the petition every day from now until the election. his lawyer walked that back and said, I would not have chosen this to be, you know, to say the word randomly. But so ends the one of the more unique political initiatives that we've seen in modern decades.

23:36The world is remembering a music legend. Quincy Jones, the American musician and producer, died at the age of 91 in California this weekend. Jones is best known as the producer of Michael Jackson's album Thriller, but his career is full of incredible achievements. He worked close with Frank Sinatra on Fly Me to the Moon, changing it from a waltz to a swing. He won 28 Grammy Awards, a Tony, an Emmy, and an honorary Oscar. And in perhaps the biggest symbol of his influence, he was the ringleader who rounded up 46 of America's top artists with massive egos to record We Are the World for Charity in 1985, an absolute musical giant.