How Long Will The Gov Shutdown Last? & Peloton Mounts a Comeback

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0:29Good morning, Brew Daily Show. I'm Toby Howell. And I'm Anne Berry. Today, how long is this government shutdown expected to last, and what's the economic pinch going to be? And Peloton, are you ready to be trained by AI? It's Thursday, October 2nd. Let's ride.

0:48Good morning and happy Thursday. Neil is taking a little time off today, which we always love for him. So we're excited to have Anne in the studio today. And Anne, I want to start off the show by talking about Jane Goodall, the legendary conservationist and primatologist who died at 91, her institute revealed yesterday. day. Goodall was a legendary figure leading groundbreaking research on wild chimpanzees and other primates in their natural habitats. One of the first major findings she found was observing chimps using a grass blade to fish for termites, showing humans were not the only part of the animal kingdom who could make and use tools.

1:24Even into her 80s, Goodall maintained a relentless pace, logging up to 300 travel days a year to talk to world leaders and support conservation efforts around the globe. She's just one of those figures, Anne, who transcends science all together. And I know you're a big personal fan. Yeah, I'm really sad by this totally iconic, mischievous woman, brilliant woman, amazing science. And here's a quote I just want to share with her. And one of the reasons I've always enjoyed following her, it actually doesn't take much to be considered a difficult woman. She said, that's why there are so many of us.

1:57So, I mean, that deserves to live on in a t-shirt, but I do love Jane Goodall. Sad about this one. She is absolutely one of those people that everyone just knows, everyone loves, and everyone just can picture her amongst, you know, the primates that she was studying. We just have that image shared into our memories. So great woman and a great life as well. That's exactly right. Well, now a word from our sponsor, LinkedIn Ads. Toby, do you ever think you've seen a billion of something all at once? Yes, I eat a lot of rice. Well, I think you're severely underestimating how much is in a billion. For example, LinkedIn Ads has a network of over 1 billion professionals and 130 million decision makers.

2:35That's a lot. You can target your buyers by job title, industry, company roles, seniority skills, company revenue, so you can stop wasting budget on the wrong audience. Plus, LinkedIn ads generates the highest B2B, that's business-to-business ROAS of all online ad networks. Spend$250 on your first campaign on LinkedIn ads and get a free$250 credit for the next one. Just go to linkedin.com slash mbd. That's linkedin.com slash MBD. Terms and conditions may apply. The government is still shut down as lawmakers struggle to agree to a spending deal to fund operations. The close sign hanging on Washington carries with it increased economic stakes as Trump has threatened to use this shutdown to lay off federal workers, leading to some fears of an economic turndown.

3:20But in general, while they generate a lot of headlines, historically shutdowns don't dent GDP, unemployment, or retail sales all that much. For instance, during a 16-day shutdown in 2013, the economy still added 220 ,000 jobs above annual average. And in 2019, during the longest shutdown ever across 35 days, payrolls grew at an average of 221 ,000 per month versus 166 ,000 for the year overall. However, the White House's threat to permanently dismiss thousands of federal workers might lead to worse economic outcomes if temporary furloughs end up becoming layoffs. Part of the issue is we're not even getting a jobs report this month to gauge labor market health because the BLS has suspended operations ahead of its typical Friday issuance.

4:07That's especially dangerous right now as the Fed weighs whether to cut rates further. Without the gold standard BLS report, economists turn to private payroll data provided by ADP, which came in ugly yesterday, showing 32 ,000 private sector jobs loss, missing expectations of a 45 ,000 job gain. So, Anne, as we enter into what looks like a stubborn shutdown, we're running light on data and heavy on uncertainty. That's exactly right. And here's a question for you, Toby. The data-driven Fed, right? And you and I have had this conversation before. You've got Fed Chair Jerome Powell. If there's one thing he's kept on saying, the rate decision is going to be data-driven.

4:44How on earth do you think that they are going to try to make this really important move or not, right? It would be the second rate cut, only the second, if they don't have the key labor data. It is tough because the ADP report can only do so much. It looks at private payrolls, and they have revamped their methodology back in 2022. It now has a little bit more independent data, and it has better warning signs of labor market weakness at this point, but it's still just not the comprehensive labor market report that we are looking at from the BLS. So flying blind at this current moment is not what you want to see whatsoever.

5:21How long is this current moment going to last? How long is the government going to be shut down? That is still up for interpretation. The longest shutdown in U.S. history was 34 days. That was back in 2018, 2019. In total, they last right around 20 days each. And Polymarket and Kalshi, the prediction markets, are saying that right now the average prediction is around 11 days. It's not a consensus at any point, but the consensus is right now that there's just 14 % odds of a deal in the next few days, October 3rd to October 5th. So it's definitely going to extend beyond this week if you trust the prediction markets and probably into next week as well with a around 11 day estimation for how long things will remain shuttered.

6:06Which seems to come to the heart of the fact, one, the markets haven't really moved very much. In fact, they've been holding up pretty well. And it goes back to what you said at the beginning, Toby, where the data, when you look back over the longer term, suggests it doesn't make typically a massive dent on GDP growth, on employment numbers or on consumer spending. The thing that you said that really struck me is, does this become a segue to more permanent reductions in force over in the federal government? So right now, about 750 ,000 federal employees have been furloughed. We've got essential services still running, but folks aren't getting paid.

6:41There are a couple, though, I thought I'd share with you that are still sort of open. So first of all, tariffs are still being collected. Did you know this? That's one thing that's still going. The other thing that caught my eye is NASA is keeping going. Some really specific programs, the Artemis program backed by, guess what, SpaceX and Blue Origin. So when you look at these and you sort of wonder why does it make a dent or not make a dent, there's some sort of quirky things still going on. One dent that you should keep an eye on, too, is the IPO pipeline. Because remember, when a company goes public, they need the SEC to sign off on paperwork.

7:16If the agency shuts down, there's no IPO approvals. And the IPO market had just been coming back, sputtering back to life. We've seen a couple of major ones do very well recently. And now, right as it felt like things were coming back to life, they are running into this shutdown. So that's one thing to keep an eye on as well. And then just another not as serious angle to keep an eye on is I call it like the slot bowl angle, the Cava angle, because a lot of these companies, Chipotle, Cava, Sweetgreen, et cetera, have a lot of locations within the, you know, D.C. area. And so if the federal workforce is not coming in mass to lunch breaks, those fast, casual restaurant trains are also going to be impacted.

8:01So it is impacting everything from the very top echelons of companies going public all the way down to, you know, what you're having for lunch every day because these workers aren't taking their lunch breaks as they normally would. Those slot bowl companies to carve a sweet green, their shares, these are publicly traded companies, haven't been doing so well lately. This is sort of the last thing they need. Well, let's move on. let's talk a little bit from eating your lunch to working it off. And let's talk about Peloton, which is trying to mount a comeback. So the once pandemic era, darling, is rolling out a fresh lineup of new machines that includes revamped bikes, treadmills, and a rowing machine.

8:37But its biggest add on will be, guess what? Well, it's going to be AI. Of course, it's AI. It's AI all the time, all the places right now. Now, if you remember, Peloton was riding high during the pandemic when everyone was trying to stay fit while being stuck at home. But since then, its stock has plummeted 90%, leading to mass layoffs, cost cutting, recalls, failed initiatives. We've had activist investors in there shaking, rattling their sabers, saying you've got to do something. Well, this could be the next gear that folks have been waiting for. It's the first major change under the CEO, Peter Stern, who has the enormous challenge of bringing the fitness company back to its peak health.

9:17Stern's strategy is broadening Peloton's reputation to move beyond just being known as a cardio machine, as well as attracting new customers ahead of the holiday shopping season. So Toby, I know you're an athlete. I know that soccer is your sport or football. Are you ready to go from having a real coach train you to having an AI robot yelling at you? I do think that customers of Peloton have welcomed this because they tried to roll out this accessory camera in the past that you put on your bike and it could watch you and critique your form and give you insights. It was kind of a clunky piece of hardware.

9:49Now they've integrated into the hardware itself. And so people are open to this idea because if you're working out at home, what do you not have? A coach looking over your shoulder. If you can have an AI that is trained to look at your push-up form and say, hey, your hips are dragging, Ann. Let's get those hips up. Let's get everything in working order here. I think that is something that provides genuine value to at-home workouts because it's lonely. You don't know if you're doing things right. So if you have a little camera in the sky saying, you know, let's tighten up that form, then I think people will respond to that.

10:25I'm sure you have great push-up form, by the way. My DMs are going to get flooded with, you know, loosen your hips out. I can absolutely see this coming. So I actually went back in history a bit. This isn't the first time, right, that Peloton has tried to do something jazzy. They actually launched, you remember this last year, a new product, a new campaign, which was, quote, find your push, find your power, which had the Watt brothers involved in it. So they've tried on the human side with these celebrities and now really trying on the AI side. It's, you know, this sort of push into AI and to health and wellness.

10:58There's so much going on around this. Do you have an aura ring? I'm really curious. I'm a whoop guy. You're a whoop guy. Yeah. But, you know, just AI there, right, and wearables and using data to try and help people really sort of get to peak fitness. It's not the first time that we've seen this. This is also something, too, that struck me. Peloton at one point was really trying to position itself as a media company. And the idea was that you had the trainers becoming real celebrities in their own right. Music deals. Do you remember this? They were striking massive music deals. Actually, the CEO's predecessor had come from Spotify.

11:31So that kind of made sense. But, you know, this one, trying to get your stock back after you've tanked 90 percent, there's a really, really long hike that this company has to take. There's really not a lot of downside to trying something new because, again, it has just been sluggish. And the stock did not react super positively to this hardware rollout. I did read some wide reviews of the new upgraded hardware, and they loved it, actually. They say these bikes and these treadmills are really great. The movable screen is great too as well because before it was fixed in place and all you could do is ride the bike and look at the screen.

12:04Now if you want to do yoga off to the side or a floor workout, you can move the screen and do that as well. So they're trying to, as you said, move from just a cardio hardware company to a broader fitness company with AI injected in it as well. So it is a comeback trail. We'll see how it goes. I haven't done a Peloton ride since, you know, the pandemic, but that's because my apartment's a little too small. I can't fit a bike in there. It's also just really expensive. The bike is priced at just under$1 ,700. This is just a big, big ticket for folks at the moment. Let's move on. Careful what you're telling your meta AI chatbot because the company will soon show you ads based on your conversations with its digital assistant.

12:44That means your queries around what to eat for dinner or what dress to wear on a date might lead to some Taco Bell or Reformation ads seeping into your Instagram browsing. The listening will also extend to meta Ray-Ban users. So if you start lamenting about your need for a vacation while wearing your AI-equipped sunglasses, your reels might start showing you more tropical getaway vibes. Now, not everything you say will be fed into the ad and recommendations meat grinder. Conversations about religion, politics, sexual orientation, health, and ethnic origin will not be used for targeting. And chats before December 16th won't be used either.

13:19But beyond those constraints, there is no opt-out. If you use Meta AI, your prompts will become fair game. And we know that Zuck and Meta have been on the mother of all AI hiring sprees, poaching top talent with eye-watering pay packages to accelerate the company towards so-called superintelligence. But it's telling that the first practical use case Meta is finding for AI is serving you better ads. I don't think it's a surprising, Toby. If you think about Google, Google's been doing this forever. How many times do you open up your Gmail and then all of a sudden you've got an ad that's related to some email that you haven't necessarily just opened?

13:54It's sort of lurking around there in your inbox. So not super surprising, not super surprising. They're basically saying everything's fair game for an ad other than sort of categories that are sort of legally protected. It shows ads are just absolutely still king, despite all this lofty talk of super intelligence, a AI that exceeds humanity's bounds. Meta's model is pretty simple. Let's just find more relevant signals so we can serve you more precise ads, which leads to more revenue. I mean, I do think the broader industry is looking at Meta's push into AI because obviously so much money has been plowed into CapEx, into building out these data centers, into spinning up these AI ambitions.

14:33But the business model, the killer business model of AI hasn't necessarily been established yet. Meta is, you know, one of the best advertising companies in the world. If it does meaningfully improve their ad targeting, maybe some in the industry will breathe a sigh of relief because it shows that there is a practical use case for AI and you can monetize it effectively. So even though it's not necessarily the sexiest thing in the world, better ads is maybe what is going to underpin kind of this AI economy we are in. And they absolutely need the money, to your point, Toby. Meta is expected to spend$600 billion on building our AI infrastructure in the next few years.

15:10And to your point, if Meta is able to make this work, then we know what's coming next. We're going to see this from ChatGPT. We're going to see this from Claude. We're going to see this from Perplexity. So the fact that they are really honing in on this has just got much bigger implications than Meta alone. We're going to start seeing this, I think, everywhere else. You know, Grok, you can imagine popping this up in X as well. Up next, we're going to take a quick break and come back with a modified Neal's numbers. Toby and I don't work in accounting, so we're shielded from handling company ledgers, bank transactions, and financial reports.

15:42But for the pros who do deal with all that, Fispan can help make your job easier. It embeds your bank right into your accounting software, so siloed data is centralized, and you can get more done and gain better visibility into daily cash positions. Imagine payments and remittances being sent directly from your accounting software, reconciliations that are completed in minutes, not hours, and financial reports that are consistently accurate and on time. You can do more than imagine all that. Head to FISPAN.com to transform how your firm manages money. That's FISPAN.com. Toby, the modern workplace is a digital mess.

16:23Is my laptop dusty again? Yes, but that's not what I'm talking about. Teams are scattered across locations using a chaotic mix of apps and devices. It's a logistical nightmare that creates security risks and eats up valuable time. Well, it's a good thing there's JumpCloud and Aaron Akan for that matter. JumpCloud is a unified IT management platform that securely manages all employee identities and devices from a single place, cutting through the chaos. By consolidating IT tools, JumpCloud helps businesses save money and avoid the complexity of managing multiple systems. Its AI-powered platform helps you protect, manage, and monitor your entire workforce so you can stay one step ahead.

17:01This isn't just about making IT easier. It's about giving your business a strategic advantage. JumpCloud frees you up to be more productive, flexible, and innovative, allowing you to work smarter and grow faster. Toby, you should really keep some screen wipes around. As for the rest of us, clean up the digital mess. Learn more at jumpcloud.com slash brew. That's jumpcloud.com slash brew. Welcome to Neil's Numbers, the segment where Neil usually brings you three numbers from the week's news that will melt your prefrontal cortex. But we have no Neil today, so we've renamed the segment Toby's tallies and Anne's arithmetic.

17:37It doesn't quite have the same ring, but hopefully packs the same numerical punch. For my first tally, Amazon is seeing the eye-popping price of your grocery hauls and is stepping in to cut you some slack. It just launched a new private label grocery line aimed specifically at price-conscious shoppers, with most products coming in under$5. It's calling it Amazon Grocery, and it's rolling out 1 ,000 items, focusing mainly on pantry staples, as well as fresh produce, dairy, meat, and seafood. It's a clear play to woo inflation-weary shoppers into its ecosystem, framing the private label as extremely competitive on price.

18:12with no compromise on taste or quality. The private label playbook is one that we've seen others lean into. Think Costco with its famous Kirkland brand. It's not a high margin game at all, especially when you're talking sub$5 items. So what's the idea here, Anne? Why is Amazon planning another foray into getting you cheap bread and milk? Well, we're going to talk about this in a lot more detail on our show this afternoon. So it's Brew Markets. Check us out. We drop our episodes every day at around 4.30. Toby, this to me is striking at the heart of Walmart. This is the war in the grocery market, which by the way is worth over$850 billion every single year here in the United States with Walmart being absolutely king or queen of the crop when it comes to this.

18:5960 % of Walmart stores are seeing massive revenue coming out of groceries in particular. It's a real game changer if Amazon can go after this. Do you remember it announced that it's going to try and get same day groceries to sort of 2 ,300 cities this year? It is really putting a lot of resources. This has kind of been into White Whale. It's tried over time to make grocery a thing. It first, you know, bought Whole Foods a few years ago at this point. In 2017, it's tested these Go stores. It's tried Amazon Fresh. None of them have really broken through. Now it's trying out the private label game because they know that they can compete on price.

19:36They can compete on efficiency. And the idea here is you want to use your private label to build a brand loyalty. Customers order once from you and then they return because this is a reliable source of affordable food. It also drives a little bit of margin because you are not necessarily using third-party suppliers. You are making it in-house as well. That's why Kirkland brand can get away with its everyday low prices. But the eventual big goal here is to just make groceries a sticky product on Prime. If you are used to logging on to Prime to order your bread and milk for the day, you'll probably also browse around a little bit and go after higher margin items like electronics for Amazon, for instance.

20:17So it really is this Trojan horse that gets you into the ecosystem, gets you hooked on Prime, and then hopefully you buy other stuff that is higher margin in the process. Totally. It's a complicated battle. Like I said, we're going to unpack it, come back to brew markets for more. Well, for my aunt's arithmetic today, it's not so much arithmetic. We're trying really, really hard to hang on there to Neil's numbers. But the number for today is 118 ,000 Tobi, which is the dollar amount, the price that Bitcoin surpassed in the last 24 hours to kick off the legendary Uptober. Now, for the uninitiated, Uptober is a time when crypto investors expect to see big gains for the month of October, especially following a historically weak September.

20:55Well, October, again, has been Bitcoin's strongest month. If you look back over its trends, rising in 10 of the past 12 years, that's according to Compass Point Research. This year, though, Bitcoin actually closed out September 4 % higher, which raises the bar for October gains. That's what some analysts have been saying. With Bitcoin now reaching new heights, it pushes the overall crypto market cap above$4 trillion. Now, the chief analyst from MEXC, which is a crypto exchange platform, says that this is because there's been, quote, a dose of structural demand, sustained ETF flows and a strong positioning from institutions.

21:33Well, October is not only a potent month for crypto investors, but also for the markets in general. If you look back to 1950, the fourth quarter of each year has typically been positive for stocks about 80 percent of the time. And the Carson Group did some research on this and said that typically you see an average gain of 4.2 % again in that fourth quarter period. So, Toby, it sounds like it's going to be a lot more treat than trick this month. I would hope so. But the seasonal curse that comes in September was not seen this year. Typically, if you look at Wall Street, September has this horrible reputation in the stock market since 1950.

22:11It's been the weakest month for stocks. So, Uptober is usually like this palate cleanser from a pretty bad September. But it's been a twist this year because September 2025 had the best gains in 15 years. S &P 500 gained 3.5%. NASDAQ was up 5.6%. It's just been on this pretty relentless rally going forward. And it's been something that has spilled into the crypto market as well. Uptober is really just this moniker that people have adopted. Bitcoin has only had one red October since 2018. So it really is just this month for whatever reason where fourth quarter started. Momentum seems to be building as well.

22:48And yeah, 80 % of the time, the S &P has been positive in the fourth quarter. The average gain is 4.2%, as you said. So usually, again, you feel like September, like, oh, thank goodness it's over. We can finally enter into this fourth quarter and feel better about it. Like the leaves are changing. Things are cooling off, but the market is heating up. Now it seems like we're stringing together two strong months in a row, though. Going to have to see what the government shut down there. Hey, I hate to keep bringing it back to the government shutdown, but it is going to have an impact for this opening part of October.

23:17For my final tally, Stephen King, the prolific horror author, is scaring school administrators so badly, he's become the most banned author in American school districts, according to a study from PEN America. In total, King picked up 206 restrictions last year across 87 of his works to earn the moniker. PEN counts any restriction on a book, including grade level limits and parental permissions, as a quote-unquote ban, so we're not quite reaching 1984 levels yet. And Penn found just 6 ,870 instances of book bans, down from 10 ,000 two years ago. Joining Stephen King were a lot of YA and fantasy authors like Sarah J.

23:56Moss, who wrote the ACOTAR series. Jodi Picoult, Ellen Hopkins, Ellen K. Arnold, and even Judy Blume also found their works restricted. As for individual titles among books, A clockwork orange led the list banned in 23 districts, followed by Breathless sold in Last Night at the Telegraph Club. Now, it's important to note that some states are doing a lot of the heavy lifting when it comes to this list, with about 80 percent of bands originating from Florida, Texas and Tennessee who have enacted laws that remove books deemed objectionable. And I'm a big Stephen King guy, so it's tough to see titles like Carrie or The Stand were swept away when districts remove books with adult or sexual content in them.