Throwback Ads Dominate the Super Bowl & Dow hits 50,000

0:28Recently, I got an ad for the best lawn fertilizer. Just go to LinkedIn.com slash MBD. That's LinkedIn.com slash MBD. Terms and conditions apply. Good morning, Brew Daily Show. I'm Neil Freiman. And I'm Toby Howell. Today, the highlights and the lowlights of the Super Bowl. Ben, if you're not fiber maxing, what the heck you doing? It's Monday, February 9th. Let's ride.

0:57Good morning and welcome back to the week. If your office is looking a little empty today, it might be because some of your co-workers have come down with the old Super Bowl flu. Even before last night's game, about 1 in 100 workers scheduled PTO, according to HR Platform Bamboo, and ultimately over 26 million may miss work today. A separate survey by Workday asked people taking off their primary reasons for doing so. 45 % said they needed to catch up on sleep. 34 % said they were feeling unmotivated. And 27 % acknowledged they'll be too hungover. You know what's going to be even worse next year, though?

1:31The Super Bowl lands on February 14th. Do you know what day that is, Neil? I think I have an idea. It marks 10 days until my birthday. And it's also Valentine's Day. It is no holiday sacred anymore. The NFL has come for Thanksgiving. The NFL has come for Christmas Day. Now they have overtaken Valentine's Day. Just as Monday brings a surge of the Super Bowl flu, I'm predicting next year will bring a surge of brunt reservations rather than dinner reservations. but the relationship strife will hopefully be worth it because the day after the super bowl is president's day which is a national holiday so hopefully that will smooth things over and give you plenty of time to do the dishes left over from the super bowl party and now an ad from our new sponsor flav city i top of the morning to you neil toby it is way too early for this well you sound like a guy who didn't get enough protein yet today and your wee little arms only prove it.

2:24Too bad you don't have your own delicious all-in-one protein smoothie made with Flav City's Shamrock flavor. My arms are not weak. Oh, they're weak, all right, and you're missing out. Flav City is made with all real ingredients, 25 grams of protein, 10 grams of collagen, and it doesn't taste like kissing the pavement after a lad's night out. It's my secret to turning every day into my own pot of gold. Head to shopflavcity.com to try any of their delicious flavors and hopefully make Toby stop doing this voice. That's shopflavcity.com. Well, the big game was yesterday. And for a while there, it looked like Neil and I were going to score as many points as the entire Patriots offense.

3:02Eventually, the Seahawks prevailed, making Sam Darnold the first ginger quarterback to win a Super Bowl in league history. I made that stat up, but it feels right. As for the rest of the spectacle, Bad Bunny did his thing during halftime, bringing out Lady Gaga for a surprise appearance. In addition to some cameos from Alex Earl, Jessica Alba, Carol G, and Ricky Martin, and a really cool set design, I hummed along and yes, my hips were moving. The ads, which cost as much as$10 million for 30 seconds, were dominated by AI and Mr. Rogers. Anthropics ad making fun of open AI's incorporation of ads seemed to have fallen flat to a wider audience, but Mr.

3:41Rogers and his unique brand of neighborliness were invoked in both an an NFL and a Rocket Mortgage commercial, seemed like kindness was a theme. Other standouts were a really freaky Dunkin' Donuts spot with DH stars from Goodwill Hunting, Friends, and Cheers. Post Malone fell down a hill for Bud Light, and Coinbase literally played the karaoke lyrics to Everybody by the Backstreet Boys for their entire ad. Neil, Seattle won the game, but I'd argue the biggest winner yesterday was the broadcaster, NBC. NBC is airing the Olympics alongside the Super Bowl, meaning a lot of eyeballs and a lot of money are coming their way right now.

4:17But first things first, how did your nine-layer dip go over? Well, it was certainly more satisfying than the game that was played on the field. I'll tell you that. Let's talk about this Coinbase ad because this was my experience, and I wonder if this also happened to everybody. At our party, everyone started singing along once they realized this was karaoke, and it was very cool. The vibes were very high. And then at the end, the Coinbase logo comes on, and then there was this very loud booing and jeering. We all know Bitcoin and crypto is absolutely in the dumps right now, and I don't think anything better encapsulates the mood around the crypto market or these particular platforms than what happened there.

4:52I think that experience was shared across many households, but it's smart because Coinbase are like, most people are watching their phones. It's kind of like how Netflix shows are being watched right now as a second screen. So they're like, let's break the sensory moment here and do this big karaoke spot. Another ad that stood out to me was Salesforce's ad with MrBeast. This was very polarizing because a lot of people said it wasn't pulled off well, but essentially MrBeast came on screen and was like, hey, I have a million dollars waiting for someone who slacks me the correct answer to this riddle I'm about to lay out for you all.

5:24Look for little Easter eggs in this ad. Look for Easter eggs in other videos I have put out. And whoever solves this problem first gets the million dollars. But they only flashed the QR code on the screen for like the last.2 seconds. so everyone said the execution wasn't there even though the idea is pretty fresh and unique and you can't resist uh online someone help me if anyone has any leads please please uh send them our way and then one of the biggest clashes that played out over the airwaves was ai wars there was a gemini ad there was an amazon alexa plus ad and then of course there was an open ai ad and a claude anthropic ad and you said that the anthropic ad which was much discussed earlier in the week before the Super Bowl kind of fell flat.

6:06You want to elaborate? Yeah, because a lot of people said that watching with my normie friends, they did not know that that was supposed to be how Chachapiti talks. They did not pick up on the AI voice that, you know, the guy was supposed to be conveying there. And they're just like, why is he talking weird? So they didn't get, you know, the entire concept of it. They also tweaked the slogan at the end right before they aired. So I think there was some back and forth about what they really wanted to convey there. So even though amongst, you know the online community the ai fluent community they were saying that this is a massive win for anthropic i don't know if it translated to the broader audience and one industry that's basically evaporated from super bowl commercials is automakers in 2012 automakers accounted for 40 percent of super bowl ad minutes so if you're watching the super bowl back then you were blasted with car ads last year it dropped all the way to seven percent and then this year only three automakers aired ads for just two minutes.

7:04So that industry is going through a whole lot of trouble right now. And I think that is reflected in the lack of Super Bowl commercials that they bought. I also want to talk about just some funny stats that I have for you all. So Bad Bunny had a pretty well-received halftime show, but he also was carrying a football throughout that halftime show And NextGenStats, which provides stats to the NFL, said that he actually traveled 124.4 yards with the football during his halftime show. The Patriots rushed for 70 yards total in the entire game. So Bad Bunny outgained the Patriots by a pretty hefty margin.

7:42And this halftime show, I mean, it was visually stunning. I think a lot of people had a very similar experience where I was like, this is incredible to look at. And the music's good. Do I understand anything? No, because it was all in Spanish. And Bad Bunny, actually, back in October, he said that English speakers had four months to learn Spanish. You can understand what he was saying. You can understand why the NFL picked Bad Bunny. He was the number one streamed artist globally last year on Spotify. And he has been for four out of the last five years. The NFL is making a huge push internationally.

8:17They held seven international games in the past year. And they're doing the same in the upcoming season. And Babbel said it's a language teaching app, said that the share of American users studying Spanish shot up from 26 percent in 2012 to 60 percent in 2025. So Bad Bunny, just sort of celebrating Latino heritage in the United States, certainly tapped into that. We have to mention there was also an alternate broadcast of a halftime show because a lot of conservatives push back against Bad Bunny. we found out that that halftime show had about 5 million watchers viewers on YouTube, which is not a not an insignificant number that was headlined by Kid Rock.

8:56Moving on among the industries battling out on the airwaves last night were the makers of GLP ones blockbuster treatments that can induce significant weight loss. Nova Nordisk and Eli Lilly both ran ads touting their weight loss drugs, as did telehealth startups, a row and hims and hers. The ad wars come at a particularly dramatic time for GLP ones, where prices are plummeting and the battle for market share is cutthroat. Much of the recent drama started last Thursday when Hims and Hers released a knockoff of Novo Nordis Wagovi pill at a shocking price point,$49 for the first month, undercutting Novo's offering by$100.

9:30Hims and Hers has become one of the top selling brands for what are known as compounded weight loss drugs, which don't go through a clinical trial process and don't require FDA approval. The release was almost immediately met by criticism and the threat of legal action by the Trump administration's health department. FDA Commissioner Marty McCary said that his agency would, quote, take swift action against companies mass marketing illegal copycat drugs, claiming they're similar to FDA approved products. Rather than lawyer up, hims and hers waved the white flag. On Saturday, the company said it would stop selling its knockoff Wagovi pill after, quote, constructive conversations with stakeholders across the industry.

10:04But this is not the last role here of this controversy. Yeah, I want to dive into what compounding drugs are and why they are sort of a loophole for these pharmacies. So compounding allows you to do two things. One, you can say that you're customizing formulas for patients so you can add a little vitamin or like a B12 into a semaglutide and say, this is a new product that I can sell to consumers. But also, the real Trojan horse that allowed these to enter the market is shorted. Remember, if you go back to 2024, GLP-1 drugs became all the rage and all the ingredients that went into making Ozempic, like Wiggovi, Manjaro, Zepbound entered shortages.

10:42And there the FDA actually steps and says, hey, compounders, we need you right now. We are opening the floodgates for you to provide these medications to people. And that just absolutely rose their star. It just made them a lot more popular. Those shortages ended in late 2024 and early 2025. And the FDA has tried to step in and say, hey, stop making these copycats. But again, the floodgates were open. And it's very hard to, once the moneymaker has been, once the golden goose has been established, you can't say to him and hers, I want to take that away. They're going to fight tooth and nail for it.

11:16And the entrance of these telehealth startups like Roe, which had a commercial last night that starred Serena Williams and him and hers has led to a very bizarre price war in the GLP one space. And pharmaceutical industry experts are saying we have never seen anything like this. Usually when a pharmaceutical product comes out, it is patented by a company and the price rises over time. But here we're seeing a dramatic fall in prices. Just two years ago, a GLP-1 prescription basically cost an uninsured patient more than$1 ,000 a month. Remember, Bernie Sanders, others were very outraged about this, how much it would cost.

11:52But today, Novonortis released a Wagovi pill that starts at just$149 through a cash pay program. And that cash pay is the key piece here. insurers were very slow to get hip to the GLP-1 trend. They weren't offering it. So people just said, I want to do this. I'm going to pay cash. And that led to this price war that resembles a more of a high growth consumer product rather than a pharmaceutical treatment. And it has exacerbated the gap between Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk. Even though Novo Nordisk was the original one to the space with Ozempic, they were the ones who popularized the entire category.

12:26They have been left behind by Eli Lilly. Eli Lilly now claims a 60 % share of the U.S. GLP-1 market, which is they were not ahead to start, but they have made up ground in the process because they've been able to meet these people where they're at in terms of a price. Novo Nordisk has started cutting prices aggressively to try to catch up, but they're expecting 2026 sales to fall 5 % to 13%. They were a little late to the boat when it comes to this price. And their stock is just absolutely in the dumps, which is crazy. Their stock price is now lower than it was before this whole craze started in 2022.

13:03Moving on, welcome to Winners of the Weekend, the segment where Neil and I picked two stories that had a better weekend than the Patriots left tackle. I won the pre-show game of bench pressing. Neil has wee arms, so I'm up first. And my winner of the weekend is old-fashioned fiber because suddenly it's the dietary trend of the moment. For a long time, fiber was for old people, regulated to bland cereals that your grandparents ate. The prevailing thought was, it's tough to market something that, in essence, makes you poop. But now brands are leaning into fiber's main value prop and doing it using the language all demographics respond to, potty humor.

13:38During the Super Bowl, you may have caught a raisin brand ad starring William Shatner, a.k.a. Will Shat, embracing this cereal as its bowel-moving best. In years past, maybe the sweetness of the raisins would have been highlighted, but now fiber is the star of the show because of changing nutrition trends. Protein has been the macro of the moment, but now fiber maxing is where it's at. PepsiCo's CEO said on an earnings call that fiber will be the next protein and announced plans to roll out more fiber-enhanced drinks and snacks. Coca-Cola is also exploring fiber-added sodas and already released Diet Coke with fiber in Japan.

14:14It seems like the right directional bet to make, especially as colon cancer rates are on the rise amongst young people. And too much protein without fiber leads to unhappy stomachs, so the pendulum might be swinging back into balance. Neil, if someone passes gas in front of you, maybe even your co-host, rather than being grossed out, compliment them for their high-fiber diet. You're a cereal crop duster, and a bunch of us have been talking about it, so I'm glad I can actually say it to your face now. What's interesting between the protein and fiber comparison is that there's been this huge push into protein, but experts generally say that we get enough protein.

14:50In fact, we're probably eating too much protein at this point. But when it comes to fiber, we're certainly not getting enough fiber. So health experts are like, well, I'm glad Will Shatt and these other companies are actually pointing out that we should be eating more fiber. The recommended allotment of fiber is 25 grams for women and 38 grams for men a day. A study said that 95 % of Americans aren't hitting that. So it seems like in terms of where there's actually a gap, it's not necessarily protein. It is fiber. Yeah, and most Americans get their fiber currently from bread or pasta, you know, grain-forward ingredients.

15:26But those have kind of been vilified by the protein movement. A lot of people are saying, you know, eat less of these carbs, eat more of protein. So it's made the problem even worse. It's also become a big social media trend. I don't know if you've seen this guy. He kind of goes by the moniker online of Fiber Daddy. His real name is Alan Lynn, where he eats the most fibrous meals you've ever seen. Disgusting. Like, I have to put it out there. His goal, he calls it fart maxing, actually, is to create so much gastrointestinal action in there that it's going to come out the other end. He's got 100 ,000 TikTok followers.

16:03He also has a brand of liquid salad, which is kind of like those packets, those squeeze packets that usually have fruit in it. It's got vegetables in it, and it's supposed to aid it with digestion. So this is a nice subculture, but one that I've unfortunately stumbled upon. I have not. I have not stumbled upon. I think I would remember if I came across this guy. You also mentioned colon cancer. Well, there is – scientists are investigating whether low-fiber diets are among the factors that are causing this rise in colon cancer among young people. But it is alarming health experts. There was this 2024 report from the American Cancer Society that showed that the disease colon cancer had moved from being the fourth leading cause of cancer death in young adults to the first among men under 50 and second among women.

16:48And so I think there's going to be a whole reawakening. And fiber was big in the 70s and 80s. You said it's associated with with the boomers and grandparents. But I think it's certainly having a second win now. All right. We're going to take a quick break and come back right after this. Imagine you wake up one day and a huge solar flare adds an extra hour to each day. Or maybe your team will double in size overnight. Or there'll be a global paperclip shortage. The truth is, no one knows what's around the corner. Anything can change the world of work. And those changes can be due to factors that are internal, external, or global.

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19:16Vanguard has been in the game a long time, and its scale allows it to invest across all kinds of sectors, maturities, and geographies, aka opportunities that others might miss. So if you're looking to give your clients consistent results year in and year out, go see the record for yourself at Vanguard.com slash audio. That's Vanguard.com slash audio. All investing is subject to risk Vanguard Marketing Corporation Distributor. my winner is the dow jones industrial index which just hit 50 000 points for the first time in its 129 year history the big round number milestone came on friday when after being brutalized for much of the last week the index popped off for 1 100 points good for a mammoth 2.2 percent gain reaching 50k would have been unthinkable to charles dow and edward jones the two journalists who established a basket of 12 stocks in 1896 no doubt they popped the champagne when the index doubled to 100 points in 1906, then expanded in 1928 to 30 stocks, the number it still holds today.

20:15They probably still wouldn't have thought 50K was possible when the Great Recession hit in 2008, sending the Dow to below 6 ,600 points. But thanks to a roaring American economy over the last two decades, the Dow kept on rising and blasted through 40 ,000 for the first time in 2024, then sprinted like a Dutch speed skater to 50 in less than two years for its fastest 10 ,000 point jump ever toby among the three indexes the dow is the one you're most likely to tell grandpa it's time to get you to bed but this milestone shows that despite the dow's many flaws it still remains a potent indicator of wall street's rise through wars crises and pandemics lot of grandparent content this morning fiber's back the dow is back right now but yeah the dow kind of gets uh made fun of a lot because it's looked at stodgy it's you know price weighted not market cap rated.

21:05It's 30 of the largest blue chip companies in the US, but oftentimes people say that it's missing the moment. It doesn't feel modern anymore because it just doesn't appeal to younger investors with the techie names that they like to invest in. But the fact that we have seen the Dow do so well of late shows that maybe we're seeing a broadening of the stock market rally. So much of the gains over the past couple of years have been driven by a handful of mega cap stocks, the big tech, the magnificent seven, whatever you want to call it. But now people are rotating a little bit more into material sector, into consumer staples, into industrials.

21:38And the Dow usually does well when that rotation starts to occur. Yeah, let's talk about some of the names in the Dow. I mean, the number one weighted stock in the Dow that's really propelled it recently is Goldman Sachs. And then the second one is Caterpillar, which was our stock of the week on Friday. That just hit a record high. And what's the sixth most influential stock in the Dow, which is Sherwin Williams, the paint company, a$90 billion company. If we're talking about real world companies, then I think Sherwin Williams is certainly one of the ones you have to point to. You mentioned some of the criticism of the Dow, which is that it is weighted by share price and not by market cap.

22:15And that is certainly true. That's been one of the huge pushbacks against the Dow. And that leads to very weird situations where Sherwin Williams is the sixth most influential stock in the Dow. And NVIDIA, which is the largest publicly traded company in the world, is ranked 20th. And we should add that NVIDIA and Microsoft didn't even get added to the Dow until 2024. So those are some of the reasons that if you talk to a stock professional, they're going to say, don't look at the Dow, look at the S &P 500, and also maybe look at the NASDAQ, because that's a better indication of what's going on in the economy.

22:48And yet the Dow hit 50 ,000, it's worth celebrating. It does well, though, when you look in terms of historical continuity, because it's always been valued this way. So there's apples to apples comparison that goes all the way back to 1928 when it expanded to 30 companies. So the fact that it's just so old gives you some measure of usefulness, even though right now it probably doesn't reflect the market writ large. Isn't that wild, though? It was 6 ,600 points during the 2009 recession, And now it's at 50. I mean, it's doubled since the pandemic. I remember Dow 10 ,000 hats were going to be made.

23:22Dow 20 ,000 hats. Now Dow 50 ,000. Now Dow 100 ,000 is coming up. Or maybe. Knock on wood, Neil. Jeez Louise. Okay, it's Monday again. So here's what you need to know to stay ahead in the week ahead. Wall Street will hope to find solid ground after a nauseating start to the year, though that is unlikely with a huge week on tap. We've got earnings coming from big names like McDonald's, Robinhood, Spotify, and Coca-Cola, as well as two crucial data releases, the delayed jobs report for January on Wednesday and the monthly inflation report on Friday. I think McDonald's and Coke earnings sort of qualify as crucial data releases, too, because they tell us who is buying what.

24:01I'm looking at McDonald's traffic, particularly from a lower income consumers, because if we flash back to its previous quarter's results, they cited a double digit percentage drop in traffic from that demographic. and if we want to talk about a defensive stock, McDonald's is it, basically what we were just talking about in the Dow segment. And also, fun fact about McDonald's earnings, I'm getting ahead of my skis here because we might talk about this later in the week, if it raises the dividend and pays out to investors later this year, which looks like it will, they will have increased their dividend for 50 consecutive years.

24:35That is reliable right there. The Winter Olympics enter their first full week in Northern Italy, and if this weekend was any indication, You're going to want to have it up on your second monitor at work. Brazy Johnson won USA's first gold medal of the games in the women's downhill. While fellow American Lindsey Vonn crashed hard in a valiant, if perhaps ill-advised, attempt to race on a torn ACL. Plus, the quad guide Ilya Malin did a backflip as the U.S. claimed gold in the team figure skating competition. Meanwhile, I am all in on the American Mixed Doubles curling team of Corey Tesey and Corey Dropkin, who booked their spot in the upcoming medal round.