Here’s the Scoop, Election Edition: Can Dems Retake Congress – or Will the Trump Effect Help the GOP Defy History?

0:00Hey, Nightly News listeners, we have something a little different for you today. You're about to hear a special election edition of our NBC News podcast. Here's the scoop. In this episode, Chief White House Correspondent Garrett Haake sits down with experts to break down the key issues shaping the upcoming midterms. Take a listen. There's a number of voters that President Trump brought into the party, and he wants to make sure show up at the polls. For Democrats, you know, we understand what's at stake. And part of that is absolutely pushing back against Donald Trump. I'm Garrett Haake, Chief White House Correspondent at NBC News.

0:41And this is Here's the Scoop, Election Edition. Every Saturday from now until the midterms, I'm going to be talking with the smartest voices to discuss the top issues, the places and the players that could ultimately decide control in Washington. Right now, Republicans hold the House. They hold the Senate and the White House. And historically, the party in power has suffered major losses in midterm elections. In 1994, there was the Republican Revolution during the Clinton administration. In 2006, Democrats took over Congress during the Bush administration. And in 2010, there was that shellacking of Democrats in President Obama's first midterm.

1:20But in 2018, in President Trump's first term, while Republicans lost the House, yes, in what's become known as a blue wave, the GOP actually expanded their power in the Senate. And because of redistricting, the congressional maps look very different this time around. So today, we're looking at how both parties are positioning themselves either to keep or to try to take control of Congress next year. I'll be talking to two people who are at the crux of those decisions. At the center of the Trump effect campaign is Republican operative James Blair. He was a key player in the 2024 presidential campaign, and now he's the man controlling the purse strings for MAGA Inc.

1:58That's the Trump super PAC. I want to find out exactly how he thinks a Trump-focused campaign can win without Donald Trump on the ballot. Can Republicans overcome all the headwinds that the GOP is facing right now? Then there's Democrats. They have a very different challenge. They're trying to conduct a symphony, essentially, of very divergent voices all around the country. So they actually sound like they're singing from some version of the same song. Part of that will be a job for California Congressman Pete Aguilar. He's the chair of the House Democratic Caucus. He's the number three House Dem.

2:34And that means he's in charge of messaging. I want to find out if he thinks the 2018 playbook can work again in 2026 and how Democrats can try to drive the conversation in Donald Trump's Washington. So how are Republicans hoping to defy history? And what plans do Democrats have to crack the president's MAGA movement's control of Washington? Stay with us.

3:01Get The Daily Show's ongoing coverage in Decision 2026. Coverage you shouldn't miss because there will be a test. I don't make the rules. It's the most trusted fake news in America. Comedy Central's The Daily Show. New weeknights at 11.

3:40Buy YouTube Premium for two months free at youtube.com slash premium. Trial eligibility varies. Terms apply. Cancel anytime. At Jared Jewelers, we know it's about more than fine jewelry. It's the moment they open the box. That smile they can't hide. Knowing you chose exactly right. Because the right gift can bring a lifetime of meaning. A promise. A milestone. A memory in the making. Make every moment unforgettable with 20 % off storewide. Exclusions apply. See Jared.com backslash radio for details. Jared, make the holiday last forever. Shop Jared Jewelers.

4:24And we're back to Here's the Scoop, election edition. I'm Garrett Haake. Now, you may not know James Blair by name or even recognize his face, but he was one of the key architects of President Trump's successful 2024 campaign. He was basically a behind-the-scenes guy. He helped use data to craft their messages, make presidential schedules, cut their ads, turning all of it into a winning campaign. Then Blair joined President Trump's team at the White House, where he served as a deputy chief of staff, reporting to Susie Wiles. He oversaw their external politics, working on special elections and internal efforts to pass legislation, things like the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.

5:05Along the way, he developed a reputation as an enforcer, a savvy, ruthless tactician, and a self-described junkyard dog for Trump. Blair recently took a break from the West Wing to run President Trump's MAGA Inc. Super PAC. And now he has a$400 million war chest to spend, a president itching to hit the campaign trail, and a plan to keep Republican majorities in Washington for two years. He took some time out of his schedule to join us. Hey, James. Thanks for having me. So we spoke quite often during the 2024 campaign and never once, at least in our conversations, did you express any doubt that Donald Trump would win and become president.

5:45What's your level of confidence for this Republican majority staying the majority in this election? Well, presidential elections are different, you know, obviously. I mean, we had the benefit of certain ways of not being the incumbent. And that's a powerful tool in American politics. You know swing voters the people that decide elections They don't stay in a place for too long sort of generally and obviously we know this history of the midterms that the American people historically don't leave anybody Completely in power for a long period of time that said I feel optimistic about where we are we pay attention to our internal numbers and our internal numbers Tell us that we stand a very good chance of keeping the majority in both chambers.

6:31There's a path to expanding it potentially. But it's very race by race. So I'm cautiously optimistic. I won't predict, you know, how many seats are going to be in either chamber, you know, come November. But I do think there is a path for us to retain both majorities and defy history for sure. I think President Trump surprised a lot of people when he said recently that he wants Republicans to treat this like he's on the ballot, like that this is a race that he's in. So what I really want you to do is pretend, please, that I'm on the ballot. Just come and vote is so important. Democrats certainly welcome that framing.

7:08Why is the idea of President Trump being on the ballot good for Republicans? Well, I'd put it to you like this. Democrats are always ready using him as a turnout tool for their voters, whether Republicans do that or not. So that's sort of baked into the cake. They're going to use the leader of the opposition party to be a motivator in the same way that Republicans used Joe Biden when he was in office. I mean, that's sort of common. So I think his point is we want to use the things, all of the tools at our disposal to help our voters. And it is true that there's a number of voters that President Trump brought into the party, and he wants to make sure show up at the polls, including a substantial number of voters.

7:54And we talked about this a lot in 2024 with low propensity voters. That's true again in 2026. In certain ways, it's magnified in 2026. That's just where the party is. So the public polling has not been great for him lately. I'm sure I don't have to tell you that. His approval rating is in the 30s. The approval rating on things like affordability on Iran tends to be in the low 30s. How does a president who is unpopular help candidates of his party in an election like this? Yeah, I would tell you that, for one, you know, I think that the public polling understates his job approval. And for candidates, it's about creating a contrast between themselves and their opponent.

8:34So the Democrats want to run these campaigns where the candidate, you know, what they want a Republican to be measured against is do you think everything is going perfectly? And the you in this case that they're talking to is a voter who is not super partisan and is naturally predisposed to sort of move around and maybe split their ticket or their vote. So it's not like anything surprising in that they're not talking to base Republicans and making any leeway there. They're talking to people who are sensitive to whether or not they think the people in power are doing a good job because they're less partisan.

9:15And our candidates, the challenge for them is to not be measured against the measuring stick the Democrats lay out for them, but to be measured against their opposition in a given race. And so that is where you get down to, you know, a choice election and creating a binary choice for the voters in your district between who you think is going to do a better job representing you in Washington and delivering on the issues that you care about. And that's where candidates have to chart their own course in many ways. And a lot of it is national issues. There are national things where you see many people running on some of the same stuff all across the country because it works everywhere and they voted for it all.

10:00And all the Democrats voted against it in the case of Congress. And then some it's very parochial. People ask me, is all politics local anymore? Is this a nationalized election? When it comes to Congress and certainly the midterms, the answer is both. There is a national backdrop against which things are being fought. And there are local considerations and sort of very specific considerations that a good campaign will be able to utilize both of. So I kind of, you know, it's it's neither politics is not all national. Neither is it all local. How much harder does the ongoing Iran war and the price increases that people are seeing in their daily lives make your job of winning races for Republican candidates?

10:45Look, I mean, people are economically sensitive, so they don't want to pay any more in gas prices. I mean, that's generically true. Although you don't see gas even in the open-ended now popping to the top of what people's concerns are. What people really want is to just feel good about their short, medium and longer term economic sort of outlook. I mean, the American public generally agrees with not. I mean, you know, they're more agree than disagree with the idea of not letting Iran have a nuclear weapon. Many pollsters have found that. But you're making a long term trade off to win it to be right historically.

11:23But in the short term, potentially risking your majorities on those things about wanting to feel better economically. I think that as things have settled down and people see that we're in control and are coming in for a landing, you're seeing numbers with the voters that are sensitive to that moving back in the Republicans' direction. We saw that over the summer around the MOU and again settling again as there's not been sort of daily action. So I'm optimistic about things continuing to move in our direction as they are right now in September, October. So I don't overly stress about that. I mean, obviously, as a president, you have to make presidential decisions.

12:00And sometimes you just, you know, you do what's right and you want things to sort of work out. I think, you know, the president made a correct decision in the scope of history to solve a problem that has been bipartisan agreed as a problem for 47 years in this country. And I think we can manage our way through in September and October to still be successful. And I think we will be. I want to play for you something we heard from a voter in Pennsylvania who was basically abandoning the president and asked you about it on the other side. If you could say something to President Trump and he was going to hear you right now, what would it be?

12:37You are a worthless pile of s**t. And you voted for him how many times? Three times. That was my bad. Apparently, I'm an idiot. it. This voter was very upset about the economics of her life, feeling like the cost of living votes that she cast along the way were not being lived up to by this president. If you're losing people like that who voted for him multiple times, how much of a warning sign is that for other Republicans? She says she voted for him multiple times. I'll take her at her word on that. What I would say, again, you know, let's measure against the opposition. So whether you agree with, you know, the Iran war or not in the very sort of short scope, it is a fact that four years ago, when the other party was in this position, they controlled all chambers of Congress, both chambers of Congress, and they had the presidency.

13:38Inflation was at 8 % by this time of the year. It had peaked at 10 % and earlier in the year. It was the highest it's been in over 40 years in this country. This is when prices went through the roof on everything. And the Republicans are cleaning up that mess. And it is true, we're still cleaning up that mess. And we need more time to finish the job. That's what we're asking for in November. Well, inflation is higher now than it was when the president came into office. And there are some things, we already talked about gas or grocery items, diesel recently broke a record. I mean, there are some prices that are objectively higher, not just coming down.

14:09I think that's a temporary bump that between now and election day, and maybe even by the time I would speculate that this podcast publishes, that you see that changing and that dynamic receding. I think if you take out the inflation numbers are very good, minus a short-term spike in energy. I mean, we know what that's related to. That's objectively true. The point is, can we get the voters on board with bringing Republicans back into power against that backdrop? And the answer is, I think they can. We'd have to litigate race by race how you do that. But I do think it's possible. And obviously, that's what our job is for the next eight weeks.

14:47You've mentioned a couple of times not your candidates not being judged against the ideal. You have a$400 million war chest or so. How much of that money is going to be spent defining these Democrats? And what does that effort look like across the country? That's already started at this point. And it's about educating. See, it's also about making the voters know who your opponent actually is. So if you look all around the country, Democrats are running away from the Democrat party because generically the Democrat party's approval rating is in the tank. Yeah, they have brand problems. Even if you are a voter in Pennsylvania, like the woman you mentioned, who's a little bit frustrated right now, they don't like Democrats.

15:33They don't think Democrats are more capable of solving any problems on the economy. They have no credibility on immigration whatsoever. Crime. I mean, when you ask questions, who do you trust more, Republicans or Democrats on this? Republicans still have the edge virtually on every major issue. And you obviously, as a political practitioner, you use that to your advantage and you exploit that. So you mentioned immigration and that being one where voters still trust Republicans. I'm looking at a Fox News poll from July that actually shows Democrats now holding a one-point edge over Republicans on who can better handle immigration.

16:11What does it mean if the president's losing the edge on something like that that was a signature issue? That's not what we see in any of our polling. And certainly when you ask about a candidate directly, that's just not accurate. The Democrat Party, really, I mean, they just, they don't have credibility on that issue. So, you know - The president's made his views on Fox's polling pretty clear. I mean, I've just, I've not seen that poll, so I won't talk about their methodology or whatever. But, you know, I think there's two different things here, right? There's the idea of sort of sealing off the border, which the president ran on and which I think all the polling that I've seen, too, it was extremely popular.

16:43And then there's the questions about like how ICE is conducting itself in the interior areas of the country, which has been, I would say, most generously has been controversial. There's been a lot of discussion about the manner in which that has been done. Do you worry about something that was a strength on the front end becoming a reliability in its execution and how it's broadly perceived now. For the next eight weeks, what I worry about is filling in any knowledge gap that the voters currently have that will lead them to making the decision I want them to make, which is obviously to vote for a Republican.

17:18So that's the idea, to make it sort of a binary choice. It has to be a binary choice. Again, do you think immigration enforcement is perfect exactly how you like it? Or do you think we should have immigration enforcement versus have none at all? I know what the answer to that question is with the voters. And to the degree there is a district where voters are voting on the topic of immigration and interested in that, or that's either a strength or a vulnerability for the given candidate, you bet we're going to fill in that knowledge gap for the voter. And I suppose the Democratic argument to that would be that it's not about immigration.

17:51It's about overreach and power and control and sort of the way that these people have conducted themselves in American cities. Do you engage with that argument or do you bring it back to what you just described? I'm not interested in explaining to the voters what the Democrats need to explain to them. I'm going to explain to the voters what happened. So the Democrats, it's up to them to explain their side of the argument. I don't need to do that for them. Talk to me a little bit more about the map, particularly the Senate map. I mean, there's been a lot of ink spilled on the idea of North Carolina and Georgia are competitive seats, but the Democrats look strong there in all the public polling.

18:27Where should we expect to see Republicans making big investments as your top target? Michigan, like kind of walk me through the way you're looking at the Senate map. I mean, everywhere, everywhere that you mentioned and more. I mean, I think the battleground is fairly well known, you know, at least by anyone watching politics. Georgia's in play. North Carolina's in play. I mean, those are those are tough states for either party. I mean, yes, it is true that President Trump won North Carolina three times. And it is also true that Roy Cooper has never lost in North Carolina. So there's no surprises here if you know what you're looking at to see that that is a competitive, you know, tough race.

19:04There's no surprises. Where are you worried about surprises? Where am I? I mean, I'm not I don't think I'm worried about surprises in that I think we have a good sense of where it's competitive and why it's competitive. The president says he wants to go to Alaska. You don't typically see presidents from a Republican Party trying to save a senator in Alaska. You don't typically have a ranked choice voting state. You don't typically have a National Democrat Party recruit a candidate as the same name of the incumbent, which did happen. The Dan Sullivan race. We know that National Democrats did that.

19:40We know that the press release for that candidate was written by a consultant to Mary Peltola. If Schumer thought he could win there, heads up, he wouldn't even be for ranked choice voting. But if the president didn't think he might lose there, he wouldn't get on the plane. I think every poll shows that that is a competitive race. I don't dispute that's a competitive race. Mary Peltola has been elected statewide before. We know this. So, I mean, I think for us, like, we're smart enough to read numbers. We know where things are. We're going to fish where the fish are. A lot of national Republicans have been speaking out publicly, practically begging you to invest in Texas.

20:17Is Texas going to be competitive in the Senate race? Well, Texas is the white whale of Democrats, at least for recent history. And you'll recall in 2018, we rode this wave with Beto O 'Rourke. And Ted Cruz ultimately won that race by about two points in 2018. So it is not a surprise to—it's not new to have a perceived upstart young progressive candidate who makes Democrats and people feel like maybe they can win the Texas Senate race. The fact is Ken Paxton had$100 million spent against him in the primary. Tallarico had$0 spent against him in the primary. And that has an impact on candidate images that takes time to rectify.

21:08But the resources that have begun to be deployed now in earnest will take care of that problem. And I fully expect Ken Paxton will be the next U.S. senator from Texas. When we're sitting around on election night watching the results come in, again, I'm not asking you to make predictions. But what are you going to be watching? Big picture. Are there specific races that you'll be watching to say to know early how the nights go? Look, you know, I mean, the Senate's a smaller map. So we can say, listen, if if Susan Collins wins in Maine, which I happen to think she will, if we pick off Michigan or New Hampshire, then there's not really an iteration of the map.

21:51that is very likely for Democrats to get control of the Senate. The House, in certain ways, has its own proxies, but in other ways it doesn't because the House is just so disparate. So, you know, it's not my expectation that there will be a wave in either direction because I just don't think we are in wave politics. James Blair, thank you. Thanks for having me. after the break how are democrats planning to counter this republican strategy that's next at jared jewelers we know the right gift can bring a lifetime of meaning a memory cherished forever 20 off store-wide exclusions apply see jared.com backslash radio for details jared make the holiday last forever shop jared jewelers here's something you may not know Only 14 % of cancers in the U.S.

22:45are caught through routine screenings. PreNuvo's whole-body MRI may help close that gap, screening for over 500 conditions, including most solid tumors, all in under an hour. PreNuvo's body panels also test over 80 biomarkers for a deeper understanding of your health. No radiation, no contrast. Book your scan at PreNuvo.com. That's P-R-E-N-U-V-O dot com. Great meeting. Who took notes? Anyone? With Monday Notetaker, nobody has to take notes again. It joins your call, transcribes it, and turns the whole conversation into a clear plan. Action items, owners, deadlines, all right there on your Monday.com board, ready for the team.

23:30So the meeting ends and the plan already exists. Meetings aren't just talk anymore. Go to Monday.com, the AI workspace platform.

23:44And we're back to Here's the Scoop, Election Edition. I'm Garrett Haake. Just because Republicans have historic precedent to overcome does not mean that this election will necessarily be a slam dunk for Democrats. Polling shows the Democratic Party brand is unpopular. And there's been an ongoing ideological tug of war about what the party even stands for and what it wants beyond just beating Donald Trump. And there are other challenges. Democratic groups and super PACs are being broadly outraised and potentially outspent by Republican groups and super donors like Elon Musk. There are those new maps in Republican-controlled states that have made formerly competitive House seats a lot more red.

24:25And most of the big Senate battlegrounds this year are in states that traditionally favor Republicans. Think places like Texas or Georgia, even Alaska. Other than that, though, it's basically a cakewalk. So among the lawmakers most responsible for shifting through those challenges is Pete Aguilar. He's a Democratic congressman from Southern California, and he's also the chair of the Democratic Caucus, meaning more than any other member, he helps Democrats in the House craft their messages to determine what they're about. He joins me now. Hi, Congressman. Welcome. Thanks for having me, Garrett.

25:00So for people around the country who want to know what a Trump midterm looks like, There is a blueprint from 2018. You had a bunch of candidates who had these national security backgrounds. You had a focus on health care, on accountability and on oversight. Is that the playbook you're using for this November? It's definitely part of the playbook. And a lot of this will sound familiar. But now we actually have receipts. You know, Donald Trump and House Republicans, you know, cut a trillion dollars out of health care and food assistance for people in our communities. Costs continue to rise. There's this reckless war in Iran.

25:38People are going to the pump and they're reminded about that war every single day. You know, that's what's a little different. But, you know, health care is still front and center. It was front and center in 2018, and it continues to be, you know, our North Star is ensuring that we have an affordable health care system where people have access to good quality care. How important is Donald Trump as a unifying factor for Democrats? There are so many factions. There's so many different views about where the party should go. How important is he as a turnout machine for you? Well, I think, you know, absolutely for Democrats, you know, we understand what's at stake.

26:15And part of that is absolutely pushing back against Donald Trump. This agenda, this administration has been so cruel in the last 18 months that people understand that. And I think that's a galvanizing force for Democrats. But I also think that that's a very clarifying force for the American public. What are you finding, what are your members and your candidates finding to be the most salient issues? What are you guys seeing break through with voters? Yeah, I think anytime you tell people, you know, cost, care and corruption, they just they understand it, right? The costs that they face, utilities, housing, groceries, gas prices, all of that care, not just health care, but elder care and child care.

27:01Millions of Americans are in a position where they're balancing taking care of their kids, but also helping their parents. So elder care and child care are real and meaningful. And then the corruption piece that we've talked about, which is, you know, how do you hold this administration accountable and shine a bright light on the grift that is happening in real time and ensure that the American public understands that every dollar that is grifted away from the federal government is a dollar that we can't spend helping you. How do you see the Iran war part of that playing in? Obviously, it's a huge driver of costs, but voters don't necessarily like it when you kind of like hit the commander in chief during a war.

27:40Maybe it's a war one day. Maybe it's not a war. I mean, the messaging around this is confusing from the White House side. But how do Democrats, how should Democrats and their candidates be talking about the war and its effects on people's lives? I don't think we need to go very deep on this. I think people see it every day. And I would argue that, you know, gas prices. I'm a Southern Californian. When you leave the house, you pass by five or six gas stations. You see those gas prices, and you know what's at stake, and you know why this is. The gas prices are only this high because Donald Trump started this reckless war, and he had no plan to get out.

28:20And so now we have limited supply, and we have higher prices. And so our job is really just to point at the gas prices and to say, you know, look, this is somebody who doesn't care about you. He said this would be done in a couple weeks. He said this was a skirmish. That's just not the case. And the American public is feeling this. And more importantly, the American public is paying for this war. I always find the gas prices thing to be so salient in part because it's so visual. People understand it. It's like one of the few things you see the price for every day. If I go to the grocery store and my bill is higher, I'm not necessarily paying as close of attention of like which thing is more expensive.

28:52but people get the gas prices part of it. So I think your answer is interesting because I was going to ask you about like, how do you break through? Well, all of these candidates are unique and it depends a little bit on the geography. They need to make this, you know, I tell them that they're a little bit like small business owners, right? They need to make this about their communities and their neighborhood. Let's look under the hood a little bit with the Democratic Party. I mean, I mentioned the polling numbers. The Democratic Party as a brand does not do well. People don't really know what Democrats are for.

29:24And there's this divide out there in the country, I think, between some of these more far left candidates who I think are very clear about what they're for, whether it's somebody running on like Medicare for all. But I think there's this feeling like the Democratic Party more broadly has not been clear enough about what you're actually for. How do you address that in the 60 some odd days that we have left? Well, I think, you know, I think some of that is fair. And I think other aspects, we haven't had a Democrat. There isn't a lead Democrat. We don't have an opposition party. This isn't parliament.

29:57And so, you know, who leads Democrats? Is it Chuck Schumer? Is it Hakeem Jeffries? Is it amazing attorneys general and governors that we have around the country? Right. Everybody has played a role. It has been an all hands on deck, you know, movement to push back. But you know how this goes, Congressman. Republicans want to make like Abdul El-Sayed the face of the Democratic Party right now. How do you kind of counter that and let, as you said, small business candidates run their races? Yeah, look, and I think that's the difference between the parties. And that's why it isn't as clean of a bumper sticker or an answer.

30:31Republicans honestly have been operating like a cult. Donald Trump is the cult leader. And he says, you know, we're voting yes on this. We're lowering taxes for billionaires. We're kicking people off health care. and that's what they do. Democrats have always been a coalition. And that coalition means you have a big tent, you have differences of opinion, and you have ideas. Some of our candidates and some of our members are incredibly aspirational and want to help so many people in a very fast timeline. I don't disagree with that. But we have to work with what we can do and how we can meaningfully help people and make a difference in our communities.

31:10And so that's what we're up against. But Democrats have always been a coalition, and that means we're going to have conversations. We're going to have disagreements. But we'll get there. And because our North Star is, you know, winning elections and helping people, that's what you do. You can't help people until you win elections. Now let's talk a little bit about strategy and tactics here a little bit, because one of the other challenges you guys have are these maps. Obviously, in California, you have new maps that are, you would hope, more favorable to Democrats. But as you look out across the country and the kind of shrinking amount of battleground districts.

31:44What do you make of the way in which Republicans have redrawn these districts? I don't need the moral argument around it, but just sort of tactically, how much more challenging does this make it to have anything like the wave we experienced in 2018? Well, I think it's unquestionable that bluer districts are bluer and redder districts are redder in a post-redistricting world. I think that we've come close to fighting Republicans to a draw on the redistricting battle in California. I played a role in Proposition 50, redrawing our state in response to what Texas did. Donald Trump picks up the phone and calls Greg Abbott and says, give me five seats.

32:22And California wanted to respond. The difference between California and Texas being California put it to the voters and said, you know, will you allow us to do this? And as a result, I'm confident we're going to pick up five seats. That'll be a net pickup of five. In Texas, there is no Republican who is publicly saying right now that it is a net five pickup. That's interesting. You think they might have drawn themselves into a corner there? It is a complete dummy mander, right? They are not going to beat Vicente Gonzalez and Henry Cuellar, and they are in likelihood right now Monica de la Cruz would lose to Bobby Pulido.

32:56These are real people running and in real races. This isn't just kind of lines on a map, and our candidates are better. And that's because they know their communities. And so I do think in areas like Texas, you saw recently Missouri Supreme Court deal Democrats a win to save the district that Emmanuel Cleaver is in. Yeah, Kansas City. Allowing the ballot measure to go forward that challenges the Republican redistricting. So we have been able to, in Utah, the courts dealt us a win and Ben McAdams will be coming back to Congress. So this hasn't all been doom and gloom. And we fought them almost to a draw, even though they have shredded the Voting Rights Act, they are packing and getting rid of black seats across this country.

33:42You know, we are holding our own. And so we're fighting them close to a draw. But I agree with you in the premise that like there are fewer toss up districts. But I think the level of angst that the public has right now and the candidates that we have are allowing us to overperform and to punch above our weight. So if you're in a Trump plus seven, Trump plus eight, Trump plus 10 district, you know, you're concerned. And every dollar, by the way, you want to talk strategy, every dollar that Republicans have to spend to defend a Trump plus 15 seat, like Monica de la Cruz, is a dollar that they're not going to spend in a toss up district.

34:22I have one more messaging question for you. One of the things that we're starting to hear a lot of from Republicans is to try to just disqualify Democrats as being out of the mainstream culturally. You and I have spoken a lot about economic arguments, but you saw this in 2024. There was that famous Trump ad about Kamala Harris saying that Kamala Harris is for they them. Republicans are trying to make the case that Democrats are too woke, too weird. They sort of borrowed that phrase from 2024. And you've seen some Democrats like AOC start to kind of even distance herself from her own comments saying, you know, woke one.

34:57That was a different era, a different time. How are Democrats navigating those kind of cultural breakdowns that they may have with parts of the country that Republicans so successfully exploited in 2024? Well, I think each of these districts is different, but I think it's it's funny. I mean, you're not going to be able to go to South Texas and to call Vicente Gonzalez and Henry Cuellar a socialist. I mean, that's just like it's just laughable. You know, Marie Guilherme Perez. And I mean, like, it's just like those those attacks fall flat because those members and our candidates have a brand. And they are happy to at a town hall meeting, at a rotary or to camera to say, I'm not a socialist.

35:40I'm a capitalist. I believe in laws. I believe in rules. I believe in supporting law enforcement as long as they aren't hurting people. I mean, like those are the things that Democrats, you know, can meaningfully say. And so I think some of this just falls flat. Maybe, you know, on Fox News or one of your competitors, you know, TV outlets, right? These are things that kind of rile up the base. But I think these aren't messages that actually move people in these districts that matter. I know you said you don't speak Senate, but I think about like the Georgia Senate race, maybe less so, but definitely in Texas, where like if James Tallarico is going to be a senator, he needs a bunch of Republicans to either vote for him or just stay home.

36:20Like there's no other way to make the math work. That seems like the kind of place where if I were a Democratic strategist, I would be particularly worried about the cultural stuff just kind of sticking in people's minds. Sure. Obviously, the bigger the media market, the bigger the state, right, the more likely that those kind of messages could resonate. And I think that's why I'd go back to the kind of small business, you know, analogy that I mentioned with our members in our districts. Usually those members and candidates are navigating, you know, one or two media markets, right? They're building their brand.

36:50They're talking about helping their communities. They're talking about being pragmatic problem solvers, which is who they will be. Those are the types of things that resonate. And I think that allows them a little bit of some kind of body armor to the socialism tag that Republicans continually try to level, which again, just kind of falls flat in these districts where these candidates and these members, you know, are honest and genuine and very clear about who they are. We have seen some of these Democratic socialist candidates break through this cycle. Is that a concern for Democrats or is that potentially a net positive?

37:26Look, as I've said, I mean, we're a big tent party. My assumption is anyone who runs as a Democrat will caucus with Democrats and will work with us on a Democratic agenda to lower costs and improve access to health care, all of those things. But I would also say those districts aren't necessarily, you know, bellwethers to what tight districts are going to look like. Those are we're always going to be blue districts. And so sometimes those operate a little differently. But does that force to those candidates positions? force your more moderate candidates to defend things they don't even believe in?

38:05I hope not. Look, we've all got to be on the same team. And that means we've got to work together. If we want a meaningful agenda for the American public, that means nobody can single-handedly get something done in Congress. We've got to work as a team. And that means put your ideas on the table, and I'll put my ideas on the table, and we'll see what the commonality and consensus is, and we'll go from there. But my assumption is that that's what candidates and members alike are going to do once we're governing in the majority. On election night, is there one race in particular that you'll be watching as a bellwether to say, like, as this race goes, so goes the majority?

38:44Look, Gary, you've been around a lot of politicians in your time. I mean, you've got to look out for number one. I'm going to be looking at my own race. I've got to make sure. Yeah, but California, your votes aren't going to be counted for like two weeks. We're not going to know about. Oh, come on. I mean, you probably will be OK. I'm just speculating here. But is there is there something that we'll know on election night that you'll be saying, all right, like if Mike Lawler loses in New York or maybe one of these Pennsylvania races, that's a sign it's going to be a good night for Democrats. I think that's right.

39:13So I'll be selfish here and say, look, on the Pacific time zone, I'm going to be looking ahead. So when those polls close, Eastern Standard Time, I'm going to be looking at Pennsylvania probably for races that are in play throughout that state. You have a very popular governor in Governor Shapiro, and he is really leaning in to these races and helping our candidates out. But I'll say kind of Lehigh Valley. Bob Brooks is definitely one. Janelle Stilson in Central PA. Bob Harvey in Bucks County. I mean, those are races that Paige Cognetti in Scranton. Those are the four that I'll probably be keyed in on.

39:55And is it four for four? Is it two for four? What does that look like leading into once we get over 8 p.m. Eastern? Congressman Pete Aguilar, thanks for being on with us. Thanks for having me, Garrett. All right, that's going to do it for us at Here's the Scoop Election Edition. Thank you for listening. And if you liked what you heard, why don't you go ahead and subscribe wherever you get your podcasts or find us on YouTube. You can also share with a friend. And we'll be back next week. And when we do, we'll be talking about the issue that in poll after poll, voters across the country say is their top priority, affordability.

40:30Look, we've got to be concerned that the affordability is a huge issue. It's jaw dropping how high the cost of everything has gotten. People can't afford groceries and rent. Affordability is a hoax that was started by Democrats. That's next time on Here's the Scoop, Election Edition. Our show today was produced by Caroline Kenney and Amanda Llewellyn, Erica Huang engineered with support from Jessica Fenton, Kateri Yoakum is executive producer of Here's the Scoop, and Shalini Sharma is the senior vice president of content development at NBC News. I'm Garrett Haig. See you next time.

41:17Hi, I'm Angie Hicks, co-founder of Angie. From roof repair to emergency plumbing and more, when you use Angie for your home projects, you know all your jobs will be done well. Angie, the one you trust to find the ones you trust. Find a pro for your project at Angie.com.