Ethiopia returns to the brink of civil war

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0:40Hello and welcome to NewsHour, live from the BBC World Service in London. I'm Rebecca Kesby. We begin the programme today with news from Ethiopia in the Horn of Africa and concerns that the north of the country may be on the brink of sliding back into civil war. Tensions have been rising for a while in the region of Tigray between regional forces and the National Army, but this week there have been multiple clashes, including today. It's very difficult to get an accurate picture of what's happening. Internet services have also been disrupted. But we've had reports of heavy fighting between forces of the Tigray People's Liberation Front, the TPLF, which dominates the region, and also government forces.

1:23These local people managed to make contact with the BBC's Tigrinya service.

1:32They were shelling with heavy artillery. We kept hearing heavy thuds. Yesterday there was a drone strike and today fierce fighting broke out from all directions around the Tokolosh, Korom and Sakota areas. I've heard a report that forces from the Tigray are fighting along the Afar region. I personally know what war is really like. It weighed heavily on me. War is war, and war claims human lives, especially right now in Tigray. Young people are not joining into this conflict by choice, but they are forcibly recruited. Well, earlier I spoke to Alex Deval. He's executive director of the World Peace Foundation at Tufts University in Massachusetts in the US, and he's an expert on Tigray.

2:18I asked him first, what's his understanding of what's actually happening on the ground? Over the last couple of months, there's been something of a creeping war, an undeclared conflict with low-level skirmishes and a few clashes and drone strikes between the Tigray Defence Forces under the TPLF and the federal government of Addis Ababa. And this crossed a threshold in the last week, and there were more clashes than battles, but fighting in four different locations on the borders of Tigray, between Tigrayan forces allied with some of their former enemies in the Amhara region there, the Fano insurgency, and a group in Afar on the eastern side, against Ethiopian national defense forces.

3:11Another Tigrayan group, the Tigray Peace Force, that is more aligned with Addis Ababa, and other sundry forces aligned with the government. There had been a peace deal in place before this. What's the broader background to this conflict? So there was a terrible war between November 2020 and November 2022, in which hundreds of thousands of people, most of them civilians, died both in massacres and in starvation. And that was brought to an end by a peace settlement, more of a truce, really, that was signed in Pretoria in South Africa in November of 2022. And the idea was that that would settle the war.

3:57It would put in place an interim government. It would begin rehabilitation of the region. Now, that deal was never properly implemented. The resources simply weren't put in place. The guarantors of the deal, which were the African Union and the United States, did not put in the mechanisms to make sure it was properly implemented. And so both sides were backsliding. And then the last six months, what we've seen is on the Tigrayan side, the TPLF, which had sort of become very marginalized by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, pushing back, taking over the government in Tigray, and then actually saying that the deal was dead, repudiating it, and saying that they were restoring the government that existed in Tigray before that war began back in 2020.

4:46So a few minutes ago, we actually got through to Bahane Gebre Christos, who is a former official foreign spokesperson for the Tigray People's Liberation Front. He's currently based in the US. But I asked him why the forces of the TPLF were fighting with the federal government forces now. The Ethiopian government has been preparing for offensive for the last one year. They deployed over 80 % of their troops to the Tigrayan border 19 months ago. And they started attacking Tigray and conduct what they started in 2020. You're saying that they fired first? Absolutely. As you know, they attacked the Tigrayan forces in western Tigray, in Shiarina.

5:34They attacked them in northwestern Tegraa last month. And now, since August, they have been striking civilians, infrastructure, schools, with drones and fighter jets. So they have been conducting war for a long time. But now, definitely, the ground troops started to move going on. There had been a peace deal arranged after the last war. Can you tell us what happened with that deal? The Ethiopian government have never been committed to this agreement since day one. And they came up and said that the TPLF is illegal. How can one abolish or make illegal a partner that has signed in an agreement? Then it follows.

6:20They did a series of things not to implement the agreement. They didn't return Western Tadrai. The 1.2, 1.3 million displaced people from Western Tigray are still in shelters and transit camps. So, you know, they haven't shown any interest of doing that. Some of your leaders have said that the aim of the TPLF is actually to take the capital, Addis Ababa. The entire Ethiopian population is under existential threat. Every group in Ethiopia. So what has happened is all armed opposition groups who have different objectives and goals have agreed to resist together. I mean, is it true that fighters from Eritrea are actually helping your forces at the moment?

7:13I mean, they're an old enemy, aren't they? Civilians might be very surprised to hear that there is this alliance going on, given the atrocities and the level of brutality in the last war that your forces had with Eritrea. What's happening is there has been an attempt to improve the neighbourly relations between peoples. This is people-to-people relationships that they are trying to establish. OK, so you say there's interaction between people, but for many civilians who are pretty exhausted of war already, there's food insecurity in the region. How many of those people have appetite for further war?

7:49And I come back to my previous question about the aim to try to reach the capital Addis Ababa and take it over. I mean, is that just a fanciful dream? Rebecca, you have raised an important issue. The people of Ethiopia, and includes the people of Tigray, do not want war. They know the consequences of war. The issue is there is a government that does not care at all about its peoples, and it's wiping them out. If there is any possibility of reaching a real peaceful settlement of this problem, they are ready. In the meantime, one has to understand that what's happening in Ethiopia is not sustainable.

8:31It has to stop. In order to stop, we have to have an all-inclusive political process that would lead us into election and settle our differences and our problems with the decision of the people. If this is done, definitely the Ethiopian people are for it. It's not a political issue today in Ethiopia. It is about existence. You know, the people of Tigray have suffered a lot. There was a genocide that has taken place in Tigray. That has to be recognised. So that was Bahane Gebre Christos there, former official spokesperson for the TPLF based in the USA. And Alex Duval is still with us. Alex, he mentioned their genocide.

9:13Is that an accepted definition of what happened? I mean, there were certainly investigations into war crimes. Well, there were investigations that were ongoing and they were blocked by the Ethiopian government. And most of those involved in the investigations believe that there was a very strong case to be made for genocide against both the Ethiopian government and its then allies in Eritrea, the Eritrean government. And he also talked about the TPLF working with other groups. How significant is that? And he also said Ethiopians generally want change. I think it's clear that Ethiopians want change.

9:53They have seen their country being changed from a beacon of developmentalism and hope to one of decay, fragmentation and very real prospect with major harvest failures of this year, of famine next year. But this alliance is really a tactical alliance. There is no shared political vision among these disparate groups. And the conductor of this orchestra is the Eritrean government, headed by President Isaias Afawaki, who since 2022 has changed his position from being a friend and ally of Abiy Ahmed to becoming an adversary. and the two countries now in a state of proxy war trying to undermine one another.

10:41And one of the criticisms, as you've mentioned, of the TPLF is that it is now in bed with a government that is ruthless and has committed untold atrocities against the Tigrayan people. Are you surprised that they are? So I think what Berhane is not saying is that it was not the TPLF that saved the Tigrayan people. The Tigrayan people in 2020-2021 rose up in a remarkable solidarity against the extraordinary abuses that were being inflicted upon them. And having pushed out the Ethiopian federal forces and the Eritreans from Tigray, the next logical step would have been for the TPLF to say, thank you to the people of Tigray.

11:31Now we go for democracy. We go for reform. They didn't do that. And so what we see is a deeply corrupt elite in power that has been involved in all sorts of trading gold through Eritrea in cahoots with Eritrean generals, people smuggling and a number of different corrupt activities aimed really at enriching themselves rather than serving the people. And clearly, we've lost the line to Mr. Pahani, so he's not here to answer those criticisms. But in terms of what the Ethiopian government is saying at this point, what do you read into that? So the Ethiopian government is treading a fine line here because strategically it wants to remain on good terms with the United States.

12:19And the Eritrean government has very recently mended fences with the US. And the main reason for that is that Eritrea has a very strategic coastline on the Red Sea immediately opposite Yemen, where the Houthis are in control of the other shore. So Abbey is not in a position where his earlier rhetoric that he wants to go and seize the coastline of the Red Sea from Eritrea is going to get him any support in the international community, especially not in Washington. And I think therefore what we will expect is that he will be conducting a limited operation, mainly with drones, against the Tigrayan and other forces, but without really any prospect of working towards a durable political settlement.

13:09That's Professor Alex de Waal there. And we did request an interview with the Ethiopian government, but they are yet to respond. We also heard, of course, from the former TPLF spokesperson, former foreign minister of Ethiopia, actually Bahane Gebre Christos there. He's currently living in DC.

13:37coming up later we'll be hearing about a rapid test for brain tumors that can slash the time it takes for an accurate diagnosis from weeks to just two hours it seems almost almost magical that you can do things that quickly but this adds a whole new level of information that will guide the surgeon allow us to make more accurate decisions about how much surgery we do, how extensive that operation is. More on that to come. Our headlines this hour. An independent panel has found Manchester City Football Club guilty of breaking most of the financial rules they were accused of violating. More on that to come later this hour.

14:16And Lebanon's Prime Minister has told world leaders at the UN that the peacekeeping mission in the south of his country must be replaced by a new international force.

14:38This is Rebecca Kesby with NewsHour live from the BBC. Now the Chinese state visit to Washington is in its final day. We're told certainly by Mr Trump that things have gone very well, though no concrete policy announcements or agreements have been made. There was a little tea party today between the Trumps and President Xi and his wife Peng Lian. Until recently, it wasn't actually common that a Chinese leader would be accompanied by a spouse, and some have described Peng Lian, or Mrs Xi, as China's secret soft power weapon. She's a well-known singer in her own right, and here she is singing the song Everest at the annual Chinese New Year Gala back in 97.

15:33Well, I've been speaking to Jane Perlez, former Beijing bureau chief for The New York Times and co-host of the upcoming podcast Face Off Nuclear Anarchy, a series that traces the arc of nuclear danger. So I asked her, is Mrs. Xi a soft power superweapon? Well, I don't know about Superweapon. I think she's quite a power. She's a wonderful singer. She's recognized all across China as an amazing voice and presence because she's appeared on practically every New Year television gala for the last decades. So she's a recognizable figure with a great voice. And now she's accompanying Xi Jinping on his trips abroad, which is quite unusual, as you mentioned, for Chinese leaders to take their wives.

16:22Before Xi Jinping, they were not seen and not heard, except occasionally from Mao's wife, who was quite rambunctious and not something that you'd really want to take abroad. Well, he didn't go abroad anyway. But Pang Nguyen is really exceptional in that sense. She's also fluent in English too, isn't she? Well, I haven't spoken to her, so I can't testify to that. but the Chinese press was all gaga because she said a few words in English without a translator when she got off the plane when she spoke to Melania Trump. I think she speaks relatively good English but how much practice she gets I don't know.

16:56So as you say she's played a role in this meeting that we've had over the past few days. I mean it's all been smiles and you know nice words from both sides but what has come out of this state visit do you think? Not very much. That's why a lot, particularly the Chinese media, is focusing on her, because not a lot has been accomplished. Nothing on AI that we know of, nothing on Iran, a very feeble two-month extension of a trade truce, Taiwan not mentioned. We really don't know what, if anything, went on, but it seems pretty clear that there was nothing substantial. So that gave the Chinese a good chance to showcase the First Lady.

17:43She and the Trumps and, of course, Xi Jinping went on two museum visits, not just one. They had a tea together this morning at the White House. And interestingly, they went to the National Archives and I think they looked at the Declaration of Independence. But whether they looked at documents about human rights or individual rights, I'm not quite sure about that. And briefly, will both sides actually be quite happy with that? Well, I think President Trump is quite happy with it, but I'm not sure that even many of his senior officials are that happy with it. And I think a lot of people who care and know about China are not very happy about it because it means that there's been very little progress on extremely tendentious issues that affect us all.

18:32Jane Pearl as their former Beijing bureau chief for The New York Times.

18:40Now, the Irish rock band U2 performed a bespoke concert for students at their old school today, Mount Temple Comprehensive in Dublin. It's to mark the 50th anniversary of them forming the band at the school. And they've also released a new album, Carnival de Luth, to mark the occasion. our culture correspondent Mark Savage went to Dublin to meet the four members of the band, Bono, The Edge, Adam Clayton and Larry Mullen, and they told him about their musical journey. 50 years of you two. Larry, you are the instigator of this whole enterprise. Talk me through what went through your mind when you were going to put that sign up in the school.

19:25I'd been playing on my own in my house. My dad was pretty frustrated. I wasn't very good at many things. Playing the drums was included in that. So I think he, out of frustration, said I should try and play with other people. So I wrote a note and put it up on the notice board in the school, hoping that someone would respond and they did. Unfortunately. You've got the three of us. And I ended up with these guys. You turned up to Larry's house wanting to play the guitar but you didn't bring a guitar. Yeah, not good with gear. Carrying it, unpacking it, that kind of thing. I owe my place in this four-piece.

20:21not just to Larry, but also just to friendship in general because my mate, Reggie Manuel, the Cocker Spaniel, he talked me into coming. And I didn't think I should do it, you know, because, I mean, you were, what, third year? Oh, second year. Second year. I wouldn't be hanging out with second years. But Reggie said, no, I should do it. And he drove me there on his Yammy 100. And that first rehearsal, Adam, I heard, even then there were screaming girls climbing over the wall of Larry's parents' house. He already had a fan club. And we thought, well, if he's got a fan club, that looks pretty good to us.

20:59As I recall, Larry Mullen took a hose. This is probably not... It's definitely not the way to treat the fans. It was a little more advanced. It was playful. Yes, it was playful. It was playful. They were sitting on the garden wall and I don't know what possessed me. I did. I took out the garden hose. They enjoyed it, I believe. It was a hot day. It's been the story of her life ever since. But he doesn't even want to have fans. It was an act of kindness and love because it was a hot day. I see. Nice one. The Edge, I read you say that in the beginning of the band you were very dysfunctional. How ugly did it get?

21:45That dysfunction is both a challenge but a strength because it's made us have to find unique ways to utilize our instruments and work together. It's sort of been a guiding light in some ways, the limitations of the band, but we therefore are in this place where musically we don't know what is about to happen. but it can fall apart or it can become something extraordinary. And in turn, and that's the beauty of U2, is the lack of orthodoxy and formality and predictability. And that's carried through right to this album. You know, the early sessions of playing the new songs that we came up with were at times super inspiring and then like really not that good at all.

22:40So I hope that never changes because I think that is really a big part of what makes us unique. That's the edge there, or David Evans, as his mum and dad called him, speaking to our culture correspondent Mark Savage there.

23:05It felt like everything I believed in was suddenly collapsing. This is the story of an Islamic boarding school in Indonesia with a dark secret. Of the school's head teacher. This was someone I respected above anyone else. And the investigation led by students he's trying to silence. If this is leaked to the media, I'll be destroyed. This is World of Secrets, catching my teacher. Listen on BBC.com, the BBC app, or wherever you get your BBC podcasts.

23:40Welcome back to NewsHour. Let's get more detail on that news that Manchester City, one of English football's most successful teams, has been found guilty of nearly all the 115 financial charges levelled against them. So what will the possible consequences of that be? Football journalist Henry Winter writes for the news website World Soccer and talked us through the charges. Everything from failure to declare information about payments to players and managers in a set period, it's effectively 2009 to 2018, when they won eight trophies. So now there'll be calls for those trophies to either to be wiped clean or handed back or handed on to the clubs that came second in those competitions.

24:30What kind of punishments other than that could there be? I mean, could they be facing fines of some sort or demotion? What might happen? It's pointless fining a club as wealthy as Manchester City. Fines in football really don't work. I mean, Chelsea got a£10 million fine the other day and that was just really a slap on the wrist. They would quite happily have taken that. So fines absolutely irrelevant. I mean, you talk about demotion. I mean, it'll effectively be. And remember, they still vigorously deny the charges and they are in all likelihood going to appeal. it could well be expulsion from the Premier League I think that is what most people would probably find fair at the very least but then I mean I've seen calls for them to be relegated down two or three divisions as Swindon and Town were in 1990 for financial irregularities that was I think they reduced to one division on appeal but it was a different league structure then it was under the Football League all four divisions Now we obviously have the Premier League and a separate competition, the EFL, the Championship League One and League Two.

25:42And is it right to put Manchester City in League Two, which some people might cogently argue they deserve, but then that stops a team coming up? So, you know, that's not fair on them. So personally, I think they should be given a punishment in terms of points that pretty much guarantees their relegation with two other teams this season. and then a points deduction for the start of maybe two or three seasons when they're next back in the Premier League. Just kind of to make the point. The people also, finally on that, the people also talking about potential transfer bans. I mean, if you've looked at Manchester City's squad recently and the quality of the academy, they're not short of good players.

26:24Henry Winter there from the website World Soccer. And as Henry mentioned, Manchester City have denied any wrongdoing and have released the following statement. The Premier League process remains ongoing, it says, with significant elements to be completed and subject to strict confidentiality. It goes on, the club has diligently respected due process for the eight years on the basis that the Premier League board and executive would behave as an independent, impartial and fair-minded regulator, free from partisan influence. That statement from Manchester City in the past couple of hours.

27:10you with news hour live from the bbc i'm rebecca kesby pope leo is the latest leading figure to warn about the dangers of the rapid development of ai the pontiff is on a trip to france and in a speech at unesco headquarters in paris today he repeated his concern that artificial intelligence poses a threat to humanity. Our efforts in this domain must ensure that new technologies remain at the service of the human person rather than becoming yet another instrument of domination and injustice. Over the centuries, many tasks once performed by human beings have been entrusted to machines whose capabilities and applications have continued to expand.