Iran says it has closed Strait of Hormuz again

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1:04Hello and welcome to NewsHour live from the BBC World Service in London. I'm Rebecca Kesby. Do not approach the Strait of Hormuz or your security will be jeopardised. That's the message from the Iranian Navy today, saying that Iran has closed the strait again following repeated Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon. Tehran argues that the failure of Israeli troops to leave southern Lebanon violates the Memorandum of Understanding signed by the US and Iran this week to set a framework to end the war. But Israel has insisted it will retaliate if the Iranian-backed group Hezbollah continues to launch attacks against Israel.

1:44And earlier today, an Israeli military spokesman said that 50 projectiles had been fired from Hezbollah positions overnight. Lebanese authorities saying that at least 15 people have been killed in the latest wave of Israeli attacks today. So what is the status of the Strait of Hormuz right now? A US military statement says it is open and ships have got through today. But let's get more details with Ami Daniel. He's CEO of the shipping analytics company Windwood, which studies this sort of thing. He's also a former captain in the Israeli Navy. Ami, welcome to the programme. I know you've been watching The Strait today.

2:22What's your assessment? Is it open or not? So first of all, it's great to be here. Thanks for having me. I have been watching The Strait for the last 60 days or so. So I agree with everybody. I think that's the point. OK, well, that's good. It's very important to agree with everybody in life. I think CENTCOM is correct. There have been ships through today. This is the American authorities, yeah. Correct. CENTCOM is the central commandment of the US. As of early this morning, we've seen ships go through this afternoon in the southern quarter, which is next to Oman, the northern quarter next to Iran.

2:54Some of them dark, some of them not, including tankers that have transited through the southern quarter, just as reported by President Trump himself previously. So I absolutely agree that is continuing. And I also see a few very large food carriers getting ready to cross. However, this is the however, the quantity was not as expected. A couple of days ago, if you will, people thought there would be flowing and everybody would be kind of starting their engines. We'll see, again, a return to the 130 or so vessels transiting the Straits pre-war. It is Saturday, which is probably three or four days after the MOU was signed, right?

3:34We're still at about, I don't know, 20-ish a day. Could be 20, could be 30. It's hard to really know. By the way, people counted this number in a different way. What do they count in? What do they count out? So there's a lot of details here. But I would say my best guess is we're at a status quo, what we saw yesterday and the day before. We're definitely not in a breakthrough, that everything is flowing, but we're not at a standstill, like Iran is saying. I mean, you mentioned the word dark there. And I wonder if you could explain that, because I know that some ships have been turning off their tracking devices to make them harder to detect.

4:10Why would they do that? And does it make it harder to get an accurate picture of what's going on? Yeah, first of all, they're turning off everything, not just their trackers. They're turning off their radars. They're turning off their sat phones. They're turning off every single thing that emits anything. And that is to make it harder for Iran to detect their passing. So if you will be on the Omani coastline with a pair of binoculars or whatever, you would see them. But from Iran, it would be very hard to see them because it's quite far. It's like 22 miles out if they're not emitting anything.

4:40So that's one comment. Secondly, they're doing it, including what's called their AIS, but not just their AIS, to reduce the possibility of them getting detected and therefore be targeted by drones or by underwater vehicles or by missiles or shot hits or whatever that may be, which is all the arsenal of Iran, which is kind of their threat, right? The PGSA saying, well, you can't go in, you can't go through or you're giving you insurance and so forth. So, I mean, that's the question, isn't it? Because there can be confusion over whether or not it's open. But the real issue is how safe it is for shipping companies to start going through that.

5:17Absolutely. People have no certainty, I think. And that's statement by the PGSA, the Persian Gulf Straits Authority, which was just built a month or two ago by law in the Iranian parliament. I think that's the most worrying thing. If you ask me, take a step back, put aside the details, open or close right now. Our biggest worry is that this would be a card that Iran would pull regarding anything. Well, you don't accept our terms, boom, closed, you know. And it's not just about Israel and Lebanon. I think it's about anything they would like. It's a big card in the negotiation right now. And it could happen again.

5:49Amit, thank you so much. Good to speak to you. That's Amit Daniel there, CEO of the shipping analytics company Windward. Well, during the negotiations ahead of the U.S.-Iran Memorandum of Understanding signed this week, Tehran insisted that a ceasefire in southern Lebanon was a crucial part of that deal. Omid Khazani is a reporter for the LA Times currently in Tehran. And I asked him how the authorities in Tehran have been spinning this deal to the Iranian public. So far, it's been welcomed by people on the streets and by the media circles and also journalists and analysts in Tehran as a success for Tehran.

6:28And more importantly, it was quite a difficult thing to sell to the public, especially after the assassination of the Iran Supreme Leader. Negotiating with the United States was a red line for authorities, but it seems that they're actually selling it as a success to the public and public are welcoming it. Right. I mean, there's been so few details about exactly what's in this deal. Are there any parts of it that are being picked out and pointed to by the authorities in Tehran? What do they understand is in the deal? The recognition of Iran's missile program, which seems that was a red line for Trump administration in previous negotiations, seems that no longer they are trying to say that there should be no missiles, no enrichment at all.

7:24And now Iranian authorities are saying that they have recognized our rights for enrichment, though it's the low level of enrichment, but it's been recognized by Trump administration. And they say this is sold to the public as a great success. The government is talking about gaining such success as the US government has agreed to unfreeze Iran's billions of dollars of frozen assets. And in terms of how ordinary people feel about it, there must be some disquiet about what's happening in southern Lebanon. That was one of the red lines for the regime in Tehran, that they wanted a ceasefire in southern Lebanon.

8:05We understand that's not really holding at the moment. Yes, actually, no. Majority of the people here on the streets are happy about the deal. But ordinary people on the streets are skeptical about how it's going to hold or it's going to last how long because they say basically Trump is a whimsical person and Bibi Netanyahu is a person who wants to devastate the deal because basically it's not in his favor. But if we take a look at the markets in Iran, markets show that the Iranian society, Iranian business, Iranian economy has relatively positively reacted to the deal. The Iran stock market has started to grow in the past two weeks, you know, substantial growth, 12 % every week.

8:55And Iran's currency, which had depreciated 30-40 % before the war started, has started to regain its value in the past two or three weeks. Though currently the economic situation is not very good because the rampant inflation, which started from January, is still having its effect on the lives of ordinary people. So is the thinking then that this deal will hold no matter what happens in southern Lebanon? Or is there a fear that it will fall apart and then what? When you're talking to journalists or experts, they say that it's going to hold because Iran has a new leverage and that's the Strait of Hormuz.

9:39And this is a real bargaining chip and a card that Iran can play anytime. Is it possible to know how Mr Trump is viewed in Tehran at the moment by the leadership? If you talk to senior Iranian politicians, they do not take him very seriously now because they had his threats and he did not make good on his threats a couple of times. The positions that Iranian authorities are taking these days, I think that they are more hard line than a couple of months ago. And they believe that they can win against him. Omid Khazani there, reporter for the LA Times, speaking to us from Tehran. Well, for a sense of the mood in Lebanon, my colleague Paul Henley has been speaking to Mona Abu Zaid, who's the director of Najda Hospital in Nabatea.

10:33That's in the south of Lebanon. The hospital is located inside what the Israelis call the evacuation zone. And this interview was recorded on Friday evening. Right now, the situation is catastrophic. The hospital is running under pressure. And it was a very difficult day. There are many, many strikes around us and all the village of Nabati city, Abush, Kafar Roman, there is Zohrani. From one o 'clock this morning until now, we received like 20 martyrs and more than 27 injuries. Between this, we have many children, the family, two families, they arise from the register. What kind of injuries are you seeing?

11:24Many injuries. We have polytrauma, shrapnel, wound and complex fracture. Tell us about the difficulties of working under these circumstances when bombing is ongoing. Really, our staff is exhausted. They are working under immense psychological stress. They are worried about the safety of their own family while trying to save others. We have even had to transfer critical unit like our third floor ICU down to the emergency department because our upper floors suffered structural damage and sheltered glass from nearby strikers. Do you have enough medical supplies? Do you need help from the international community, for instance?

12:15We are facing severe shortages as the influx of casuals drain our medical supplies, medication and fuel. However, in coordination with the Lebanese ministry, Medicines Frontières, Red Cross, we are working to secure this essential. Despite the condition or the intense condition, our team of doctors and nurses remain resilient, working around the clock to save lives. Tell me why you personally decided to stay in what has been declared by the Israelis an evacuation zone. Why I stay? Because our hospital is the first hospital in South Lebanon and we need to stay beside our committee, our people. Are you in danger?

13:08We don't know because we are supposed to be protected by international law, all the hospitals and paramedics and the rescue medical. We don't know if we will stay safe or not because all the pump or the strikes around the hospital. Mona Abu-Zay, the director of a hospital in Nabatea, speaking to us on Friday evening. President Trump has been posting on social media. He's threatening US tolls on the Strait of Hormuz if the Iran deal is not completed. That in the past few minutes, we'll update you if anything else happens on this story.

14:00This is Rebecca Kesby with NewsHour live from the BBC. Next, we're heading to Cuba, which is continuing to struggle after the effects of the three months or so fuel blockade imposed by the Trump administration. Meanwhile, the US State Department has criticised the Cuban government's proposed economic reforms as superficial smoke signals. This week, the Communist government in Havana said it wanted to open up more opportunities to private businesses and foreign investors, as well as relax the rules on state-owned entities. So let's take a look at that idea. Would it work? Hugo Cancio is a Cuban-American businessman in Miami who's been running a company called Catapult.

14:43It's like a Cuban Amazon. Does he support this idea? This is something that I've been advocating for many years with the Cuban government. The opening of the economy of profound economic reforms that includes the Cuban diaspora, which in my personal opinion is Cuba's current biggest assets. We have no oil. We have no sugar production. The Cuba's biggest asset right now is this massive diaspora over 2 million Cubans that we not only will bring capital, we'll bring know-how, experiences, and our desire to invest in our homeland. So this is a great step forward. This is a good economic reform. I know the State Department sees it as a very light economic reform, but in the opinion of some of us in this community, we welcome that opportunity for the first time in Cuba's history, we're able to return and invest in our homeland.

15:37Well, that's right. I mean, do you trust the government, though, to keep to its word and let businesses like yours operate more freely or freely and allow you to make a difference? Well, there's a precedent there. Not only what Catapult does, there's a resilient private sector that has taken over the Cuban economy for the past two or three years. They are the ones that are holding the Cuban economy on their shoulders. They're the one importing over a billion dollars worth of food and beverages from the United States. They're the one that has all the grocery stores. They're the one that are doing logistics and public transportation.

16:14So they're an example that that desire exists. plus the fact that the Cuban government is fighting for their survival. I don't think there's a turning back on this. And what do you make of the State Department getting involved, calling it superficial smoke signals, being pretty disparaging about it? And of course, the United States are behind that blockade, which is part of the reason so many Cubans are suffering at the moment. The State Department, it's demanding more broader economic reform. I'm focused and some of us are focused of the fact that it's a huge step for the Cuban government to recognize us, the Cuban diaspora, especially the one living in the United States, and has invited us to come back and invest in Cuba, even though we're not allowed to in certain sectors because of the U.S.

17:01economic embargo on Cuba. But I personally welcome the opportunity to return if I can. And that was Ugo Cancio, the Cuban-American businessman in Miami, pondering the new reforms from the government in Havana.

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18:34hacks the stories making news in Washington right now and how they may affect your finances and portfolio. Listen at schwab.com slash Washington Wise. That's schwab.com slash Washington Wise.

18:52The British Prime Minister Keir Starmer is under increasing pressure to resign. His governing Labour Party won this week's by-election convincingly, but the victor Andy Burnham has made no secret of his criticism of Starmer's leadership or his own ambitions to replace him as Prime Minister. I've been speaking to George Parker, political editor of the Financial Times in London. So what are Keir Starmer's options now? Well, Keir Starmer has said publicly that he will fight for his job, but he's got a really agonising weekend ahead of him. He's going to be talking to his cabinet colleagues, to his friends, to his family, trying to work out whether he really can fight to save his job.

19:31Now my very strong sense is that he will be getting a clear message from people he trusts that the game's up, that he is going to have to at least announce a timetable for his departure because you can see his authorities draining away. So the big threat to Starmer is obviously coming from Andy Burnham. He has just won the Makerfield by-election. It takes him back to Parliament. It means he would be able to challenge. He's got a lot of supporters in the party. But how will his fate fare? Yeah, I think Andy Burnham feels like he's got unstoppable momentum off the back of that by-election victory.

20:08But why did he win? He's relatable to the public. He's a great communicator. He projects optimism. But, and it's a huge but, he will confront exactly the same political and economic constraints that Keir Starmer has been labouring under for the last two years since he became Prime Minister. And it's one thing being the mayor of Greater Manchester, where you run the bus services and you can blame everything that goes wrong on the big bad government down south in London. When you are the big bad government in London, the buck stops on your desk. And he's going to face a whole load of very difficult challenges, whether it's finding money for defence or all the other public services need funding when the country is already heavily in debt and taxes that are very high level.

20:48He faces some very tough decisions very quickly. And I think one of the reasons why Andy Burnham wants there to be an orderly transition possibly running into September with the Prime Minister Keir Starmer possibly stepping aside in a couple of months' time is it will give him time to try to work out what some of his answers are to those problems. I mean, you mentioned communication and that Andy Burnham's good at communication. Keir Starmer's a lawyer. He's always been criticised as being a little bit grey, lacking charisma, that sort of thing. But some of the things he's achieved possibly have been underplayed.

21:19Net migration was down. growth is looking slightly better than was predicted in recent months. Why is Keir Starmer so unpopular? It's a really good question. I think anyone listening to this outside Britain will think what on earth is going on? If Andy Burnham succeeds Keir Starmer, he will become Britain's seventh prime minister in the 10 years since Brexit. I mean, this is supposed to be a stable Western democracy and it's become totally chaotic. I think the problem is there are 400 Labour MPs who think that they may not be able to win their seats again if Keir Starmer remains Prime Minister.

21:52The public have decided there's something about Keir Starmer they don't like. A lot of people will think that's irrational, but he's not a good communicator. He isn't really able to explain why the government's doing what it's doing. And he doesn't project hope and optimism to a population which desperately craves that. That's George Parker, political editor of the Financial Times here in London.

22:21You're listening to NewsHour live from the BBC. I'm Rebecca Kesby. Now, since the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, few countries have shown more solidarity with Ukraine than neighbouring Poland. In the days after the beginning of the war, millions of Ukrainians fled over the border for safety, and around a million still live in Poland. But a new row has soured relations. Back in 2023, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was awarded Poland's highest honour, the White Eagle. Now Poland says it stripped him of that award following the renaming of a Ukrainian army unit after a group of controversial World War II fighters called the Ukrainian Insurgent Army or UPA.

23:07Well, to find out why the UPA were so controversial, I've been speaking to Lubomir Luchuk, Professor of Political Geography at the Royal Military College of Canada. Well, you have to remember that the Ukrainian Insurgent Army, or UPA, as it's pronounced, was not just a unit. It was a military formation that was associated with the organization of Ukrainian nationalists, And it fought a determined war against the Nazis, against the Soviets, and against Polish reoccupation of Ukrainian territory. So it was a movement dedicated to the creation of a united, sovereign Ukrainian independent state. And it fought all comers.

23:50It fought all predators, Hungarians, Poles, sometimes other Ukrainians, the Nazis, and of course the Soviets. So it's a very complicated history. The simplistic narrative of innocent Poles and villainous Ukrainians, I think, has to be rejected. You simply need to acknowledge that before, during, and after the Second World War, for several years, almost a decade, there was a brutal national conflict taking place in which different actors committed atrocities and violence. There's no doubt about that. Pursuing different and competing territorial claims and fighting for, in effect, what were incompatible visions of the future.

24:27At the time, no one knew what the future would bring. So there was a very complicated kind of struggle going on over Ukrainian territories. Ukraine is the bloodlands, as it's been described, predatory neighbours surrounding it. That doesn't, of course, in any way, shape or form excuse any of the atrocities that did take place. But it does explain, I think, why memories of that period are so different between certain actors in Poland and Ukraine. Right. So, I mean, it was a very confusing time as you outlay there. But I mean, many Poles consider this unit as being responsible for what they call a genocide of around 100 ,000 ethnic Poles in Ukraine during that time, during World War Two.

25:11And I mean, the Polish president has been very outspoken. He's calling this decision to rename this unit outrageous, incomprehensible and deeply disappointing. Well, one has to ask the question fundamentally, Qubona, who benefits? You know, today Ukraine and Poland are not rivals. They're not struggling over the same territory. They're, in fact, neighboring nations whose security and prosperity depends to a very significant degree on cooperation. Neither is going to benefit from treating the other as an adversary. And certain politicians in Poland are making use of this historical controversy for their own agendas.

25:47But the reality of it is an endless competition over victimhood, emphasizing one group suffering over another, minimizing the other. This isn't in Poland's benefit. It isn't in Ukraine's benefit. The country that obviously benefits the most is Russia. This isn't to say that historical debates should be suppressed. They shouldn't. On the contrary, I'm totally in favor of an open, rigorous and honest discussion. Right. I mean, I suppose given everything you're saying, though, it was a choice to rename this army unit. So why then use this phrase to rename this army unit? It's unnecessary, isn't it?

26:25They could have called that unit anything, couldn't they? Well, of course. But, you know, why should Ukrainians be obliged to name their military, which is doing all the heavy lifting for the rest of Europe, defending against Russian aggression? But why if they know it's going to hurt the Polish who have taken in so many of their refugees and been a hub for the logistics? And I've seen that in my own, you know, literally saw that in October. And I'm going to see it again in a few weeks when I'm traveling through the same territories. The point is not whether Poland today is helping Ukraine. It is.