Negotiators in talks on US-Iran peace deal

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1:03Hello and welcome to NewsHour from the BBC World Service, coming to you live from London. I'm Julian Warwicker. So the two presidents, Trump of the United States and Pezesh Kian of Iran, signed an interim deal on Wednesday aimed at bringing about the end of their four-month-long war. And today, in Switzerland, direct talks between the two sides are taking place where they will look to solidify what's already been agreed. But the situation ever since Wednesday has looked very shaky. The Iranian military says it's again closed the Strait of Hormuz because of Israel's attacks on southern Lebanon, describing them as a breach of their agreement with the United States.

1:43However, the US military has said traffic continues to flow in the strait. The Israelis, not involved in today's talks, have previously said they have no intention of withdrawing their forces from Lebanon and have also insisted that their conflict with Hezbollah is separate from the war on Iran. Well, BBC's Persians, Khazra Najee, is following events in Switzerland. So what's happened so far, Khazra, and who's there? Julian, I'm speaking to you from the press centre of the talks, which is adjacent to this resort where they are holding the talks, Borgenstock resort just overlooking the Lutzen lake in Switzerland, a beautiful place.

2:32The talks have started basically. They held bilaterals the Pakistanis with the Americans, Americans with Qataris, Qataris with the Iranians and so on and so forth. And then this afternoon about 40 minutes ago, Qatar and Switzerland, both issued statements saying that the talks between Iran and the US have started. But it appears that they have met and they are talking away from the cameras. But nevertheless, there is a room that is set up for the actual formal talks. And that room is being filmed at the moment by pool cameramen who are showing an empty room with tables set up. At the top, you have two seats for Qatar and Pakistan, the mediators.

3:32On the left, you have three seats for the U.S. side and two seats for Qatari side. And on the right-hand side, you have three seats for the Iranian side and the Pakistani side. So they are expected to come into this room any moment and begin the nitty-gritty of actually getting into talks about things that matter. For the US, it's Iran's nuclear program, of course. And for Iran at the moment, the release of its assets that have been frozen in various banks abroad. So when that room is occupied, the aim is that something meaningful will emerge. Realistically, how much progress can be made here?

4:22It's a good question. And I've been thinking about this. whether it is possible for the two sides actually to reach the finishing line, if you like, and put the relations between Iran and the US on a more sort of normal path and a rail towards normalization of relations. It's very difficult to imagine that. But given the fact that, you know, the situation has passed a very serious war between the two sides, it might, the war might have woken up the two sides, particularly the Iranian side, that, you know, they can possibly put ideology beside and try and see whether they can actually improve relations, normalise relations to an extent where both sides can benefit, particularly the Iranian side.

5:23Economically, Iran is in a terrible shape and they need money and they need investment. And that can only come if the talks reach a satisfactory stage. I suppose one thing that might emerge, and I'm looking back to Wednesday when that interim deal was signed by President Trump and Pesesh Kyan, I mean, so much at the time was said of the absence of detail in that deal and how much the wider world knew about it. Do you think we'll find out anything more about that today? Well, eventually we will find out if they do agree on anything. I covered the previous negotiations and agreement between Iran and the U.S.

6:11in 2015, the JCPOA. It took them two and a half years to reach the finishing line. And until we reached that end, we knew very little about the details that then emerged. and we found out that quite a lot of detail had been negotiated. This time, the talks are supposed to sort of wind up in 60 days. And that seems to me pretty short for this kind of negotiations about technical issues like the nucleus program. On that front, by the way, the US wants Iran to dismantle its nuclear program and ship out its 440 kilogram of highly enriched uranium that Iranians are saying they're not going to agree to that.

7:12OK, well, we shall see what emerges in the coming hours. Kazra Najee following events in Switzerland. So what does this war with Iran tell us about Washington's ability to shape the international order on its own terms? And has that ability taken a severe knock in recent months? Well, Dennis Ross is a former U.S. envoy to the Middle East under Presidents George Bush and Bill Clinton with long experience in the region. And he joins me now from Israel. Dennis Ross, on that question about Washington's ability to shape the international order, how does that look to you now? Well, it does feel a little bit different right now.

7:50On the one hand, you still have the use of American power, and clearly the whole world is kind of watching, waiting, holding their breath. But we also clearly can't seem to shape things quite the way we want. And part of that is a Trump administration that pretty much goes it alone and doesn't shape an environment, doesn't mobilize those who might share its objectives to be supportive and actually to help exert leverage in support of those objectives. And I think so much going it alone oftentimes leaves the United States alone. In this particular case, it's interesting. We're working with Qatar and Pakistan to be the go-betweens, to be mediators, certainly not necessarily traditional American allies.

8:40We're not depending upon American allies to embrace the same objectives. And, for example, make it clear that the idea that Iran could be managing the Straits of Hormuz, which is an international waterway, there should be a collective international voice saying it's not conceivable, it's not acceptable that Iran should be trying to take control of an international waterway. This would set a terrible precedent. And yet we're out there pretty much alone. So that does seem to reflect that by going in alone, we have less ability to sort of shift the environment than we might. I mean, you mentioned the Trump administration, which is clearly key to what's happening now.

9:20But if there has been a diminution of America's ability to shape the international order, as you describe, has that not been a more gradual thing? Could you not point to other recent events pre-President Trump, where again, that level of influence was to a degree limited? well as the world has become more more multilateral as there are more powers who also can compete with the united states and we move from we had a bipolar world to a unipolar world to a multipolar world almost by definition the united states is not going to have the same leverage that it once had still in terms of military power, economic power, no one is more able to affect the international environment.

10:09And that ability to affect the international environment makes certain that the U.S. still probably plays the most prominent role. Can it exercise and shape the behavior of others the way it might have before? In some ways, I would say it was probably always an exaggeration to assume that that was the case. Regardless, it's probably less now than it was before. And to your point, I think it's fair to say the evolution of the international system into one of greater multipolarity almost made that inevitable. You're there in Israel at the moment. On a specific point, how do Israeli-American relations look to you just now, and where do they go potentially from here?

10:50More complicated, more complicated than we've seen them. That's a diplomatic term. The reality is that the Trump-Netanyahu relationship is clearly not perceived to be what it was, but also there's a public attitudes in the United States have been changing. It'll be very interesting to see. We're going to have an election in Israel by the end of October, before the end of October. It'll be very interesting to see if there is a change in government and a different prime minister with the Israeli democracy having demonstrated it's still a vibrant democracy, how much might that have an effect on the American public attitudes towards Israel?

11:33I suspect to some degree, but we've also seen some kind of cosmic changes. And at this point, I think, you know, we're seeing an America that is rethinking a variety of different kinds of relationships. I'm not sure exactly what we'll see in the U.S.-Israeli relationship, but if the Israeli democracy, again, sort of demonstrates that it's alive and well, I suspect that the strongest supporters of Israel in the States, including some who have some difficulties today with Israel, I suspect some of them will say, look, let's give this new Israeli government a chance. We're seeing democracy in action.

12:11That's what's always bound us to Israel. You know, that may move us back in a different direction, But we're going through a process of change for sure. And what of the traditional Gulf allies of the United States, many of whom have been on the receiving end of attacks from Iran since this war began? I think that they will hedge bets in a lot of ways. They will obviously make their own kinds of quiet deals with the Iranians, but those will stay within bounds. They'll try to have certain understandings, but their trust level of Iran is probably lower than it's ever been. But also a recognition of the trouble that Iran can cause is also acute.

12:55So they'll make their own kinds of accommodations within bounds. They won't walk away from the United States, but they will decide that it makes less sense to be dependent on the United States. they'll hedge bets in terms of China not because they think that China will be able to to help them in a security sense but they'll still see some value in in a sense placing bets on a number of different places the one country that will gain more than any other is probably Ukraine because they've shown they have cost-effective answers to drone threats and that will be something that will build up Ukraine in the region, but also build up Ukraine even vis-a-vis the Russians.

13:38So that's one positive, I would say. We must leave it there. But thank you very much, as ever, for your thoughts, Dennis Ross, former U.S. envoy to the Middle East under President George Bush and Bill Clinton speaking to me from Israel. You're with NewsHour from the BBC World Service.

14:00Coming up, a new book examining the effect that fatherhood has on men's brains. We know that in later life, when men have had more children, the brain actually looks like it is younger. So if you compare the chronological age of the brain to an algorithm that figures out how old the brain looks, People who have had more children have younger looking brains. A reminder of our headlines, the Russian authorities have banned private fuel sales in Crimea as Ukraine steps up its attacks on supplies to the occupied peninsula. Negotiators from the United States and Iran are in Switzerland for talks aimed at turning their ceasefire into a lasting peace deal.

14:41And India is rerunning examinations for more than two million aspiring medical students after last month's test was cancelled because the questions were leaked.

15:00This is Julian Warwicker with NewsHour, live from the BBC in London. Well, let's continue our conversations about the Middle East and those discussions going on in Switzerland between representatives of the United States and Iran, and focus for the next few moments on that key strategic stretch of water about which there has been much debate in recent months, the Strait of Hormuz. Marco Forgioni is the Director General of the Chartered Institute of Export and International Trade. Marco Forgioni, welcome to the programme. Julian, hi. Thank you for coming on. What's your assessment, first of all, of where we are?

15:35Because as we speak, one side says this strait is closed. The other says, no, it's still open. Well, you're quite right. Current assessment is confused, which is just adding to the uncertainty and instability and the ongoing disruption to global supply chains. We saw when the peace agreement seemed to be in place and making progress, a tremendous spike in transit of ships through the Strait of Hormuz. That is pretty much coming to an end now, whilst everyone holds their breath to see what happens in Switzerland. Did anything change much after Wednesday, the day that the two presidents signed the interim deal?

16:21For a couple of days, we had more traffic transiting the Strait of Hormuz than at any time since April. But that was pretty much ships leaving the Gulf. We've not seen much traffic going into the Gulf, understandably. So there were moves to get the container ships and to get the bulk carriers out of the Gulf and get the oil energy flowing back to places like India and Southeast Asia. And those movements, I mean, the ones that could get out, who was determining that? And how was it decided that some could move and some couldn't? Well, there was free movement because both Iran and the US had said that their blockades had ended.

17:07They were allowing free transit. Unfortunately, of course, now the Iranians are saying that the strait is closed. The Americans are saying it is still open and that there are ships transiting. But it is a much lower rate than we saw over the last couple of days. So what then is the challenge? I mean, say we get to the point today in Switzerland where something does emerge that would be regarded as positive in this context, and therefore the strait can be open along the lines that you've described. How big a challenge is it then to try and get back to anything even approaching normality? It's going to take months before we're back to anything close to normal, the period before the war started.

17:48And for a number of reasons. The ship owners will need to really have confidence that the peace deal is going to stick. We need to make sure that the mines have been cleared, that there's a guarantee of safe passage. And that's particularly important, of course, for the insurance companies who are essential to global shipping. So it is going to take many, many months to get back. And even once we've got the flow of the ships back, of course, you've then got the production capacity issues because so much of the infrastructure has been damaged as a result of the war. And because the areas that have been impacted, particularly around fertiliser and therefore agriculture, it's going to take months and indeed into next year before we are back to the world that existed prior to the war.

18:39And consumers over all of that time will be paying for this, won't they, to a degree, in some way? Yes, we're seeing tremendous pressure, particularly on food price inflation and on semiconductor inflation, because they've been particularly badly impacted by the lack of petrochemicals, fertilisers and plastics and gases coming out of the Gulf. So, you know, we are unfortunately going to see real upward pressure on global inflation. and we're going to see a downward pressure on the economic growth. Global GDP growth is going to be seriously impacted. Indeed, the UN have predicted that goods trade growth is going to drop from about 4.5 % to somewhere closer to 1.5%.

19:27And that affects every business, every community, every region, every nation. Thank you very much indeed, Marco Forgione, Director General of the Chartered Institute of Export and International Trade.

19:41Now, King Charles will this week become Britain's first monarch in modern times to reveal his personal tax bill. His tax payments will be shared on Thursday as a new element in the annual Royal Financial Accounts, with the decision said by Buckingham Palace sources to have been a personal one made by the King. The palace says the move is part of a modernising drive for greater transparency and to, quote, encourage wider understanding of our accountability. Well, Anna Whitelock is a historian, author and broadcaster. She's Professor of the History of Monarchy at City University of London. What do you make of this development, Anna?

20:20Good afternoon. Well, it's long overdue and I think certainly people will see it as a step in the right direction. As you say, this is the first time the king will have disclosed a tax that he's paid. And I think it comes in the wake of growing calls for greater transparency. And I suppose in recent months that has been brought to a head by the allegations against Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor, the way in which he was allegedly receiving financial payments, his role as a trade envoy, how he funded his security bill. and certainly, you know, the payment, of course, the multi-million pound payment to Virginia Giffray.

21:08So I think all of these things together have pushed the king over the line. And this does come after really, you know, many years, certainly since his coronation, of course, for greater accountability, greater transparency, you know, the mystique of monarchy, which held that really, you know, if you shine the light in, it would destroy the magic. I think that no longer holds. So I think this is a step in the direction that will probably, perhaps, see a greater degree of transparency in other areas too. I mean, on that list of issues that you went through relating to the king's brother, Andrew, I mean, how much of that realistically will we find out?

21:53Well, of course, it depends very much on what happens in the current investigations. And currently, of course, the police are continuing those and no charges have been brought. And Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor denies any allegations. But I think in time, there will perhaps be revelations from people who perhaps at the moment, because of the law case, aren't speaking out. And perhaps issuing of documentation, which shows who he was receiving payments by. But I think that we're way off that yet. And of course, you know, that will just bring the issue of what the royals knew and perhaps, you know, the late Queen knew about Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor's business dealings, of course, many years ago.

22:43On tax issues, financial openness issues, how does the British royal family compare with other royal families in Europe? Yeah, I mean, it's been a mixed bag, really, and a mixed picture across Europe. I mean, perhaps most infamously in recent years, Spain's royal family has been really beleaguered with allegations of corruption and so on. And of course, that led to the former king, Juan Carlos, abdicating in 2014. And there are all kinds of investigations into financial dealings. Since then, his son, Juan Carlos, has tried to make things more public. He's renounced his personal inheritance from his father and be more transparent in what is revealed.

23:29In other European countries, it is patchy. Some, there is greater disclosure about what is received by the royal families and what it's used for. But I think there's a long way to go, perhaps, in those countries, too. but arguably less pressure with the exception of Spain. Thank you so much for coming on the programme. Anna Whitelock, historian, author and broadcaster of City University London.

24:01How has America shaped the world? I'm Asma Khalid, host of the Global Story podcast from the BBC. As the United States marks its 250-year anniversary, we've been exploring the surprising and often hidden ways the US has shaped the modern world. And today on the show, we answer your questions about this moment and what to expect in the years to come. From the BBC, it's the United States at 250. Listen to the global story on bbc.com or wherever you get your podcasts.

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25:27Now, later kick-off times and mandatory water breaks, two of the measures FIFA have introduced to the Men's Football World Cup in North America to try and mitigate the impact of extreme heat. But some games have been played in very high temperatures and there's a renewed focus on that issue today via a number of protests. Climate activists will be outside four World Cup stadiums calling on sporting organisations to cut ties with the oil and gas industry. The Saudi oil giant Aramco is particularly in their sights. David Wheeler is a former professional footballer who's backing the campaign. So what's it like to play in extreme heat?

26:00The initial symptoms are just you feel that exhaustion very quickly. Even if you're very fit, you can feel dizzy, nauseous, extreme amounts of fatigue and dehydration. And then in the aftermath, it just takes that bit longer to recover for the next game or for training. It just takes so much longer to rehydrate. FIFA would say that's why we've introduced hydration breaks. They're having hydration breaks where there is no need for hydration breaks. And when there is need for hydration breaks, when the heat does get really extreme, when the wet bulb globe temperature gets too high. The hydration breaks are actually not long enough to sufficiently cool the athletes down.

26:40So they're kind of failing on both fronts, really. How long should they be, do you say? So the experts who sent a letter to FIFA to try and get them to change their protocol suggest that if it gets above 26 degrees in wet bulb globe temperature, which is different to just temperature in terms of Celsius, it should be six minutes. and the three minutes is just not sufficient enough to cool the body down. The World Cup in the past has been played in some very hot places in extreme temperatures. Is this one so different, do you argue? There are some areas where it's not so dangerous, but in areas like especially Mexico, Kansas, Miami, for example, you've got that combination, the kind of perfect storm of having high temperature, high humidity and exposure to the sun with little wind as well at times.