In short
Record-breaking heat across Western Europe, its human toll, and knock-on effects for infrastructure and energy; plus brief additional news segments (US/UK politics, Mozart manuscript discovery, disability employment in Germany, Brexit reflections, US-Iran talks, EU-Taliban migration meeting, and Cape Verde at the World Cup).
Guests (and backgrounds)
- Pierre-Antoine Denis (BBC reporter in Nice, France; covers the heatwave’s on-the-ground impacts).
- Paul Dorfman (University of Sussex scientist; studies climate impacts on energy systems).
- Ed Hawkins (University of Reading Professor of Climate Science; explains drivers and health risks of extreme heat).
- Daniel Lippman (Politico White House/Washington reporter; discusses US Lincoln Memorial reflecting pool renovations).
- Armin Brinzing (Mozart Library director, Salzburg; discusses Mozart manuscript discovery).
- Ali Vaez (International Crisis Group Iran Project Director, Geneva; assesses US-Iran nuclear negotiations).
- Bernd Deboosman (BBC reporter in Washington; provides updates on US-Iran talks).
- Anbarasan Ethirajan (BBC global affairs correspondent; covers EU-Taliban migration dialogue).
- Rachel Wright (BBC reporter in Cape Verde; reports on World Cup economic/social effects).
Key claims + notable examples
- France: heatwave followed 2014 “2050” forecast; 40 heat-related deaths reported; Eiffel Tower closed; government emergency healthcare plan; drowning incidents including an 11-year-old and his 13-year-old friend.
- Energy: Golfec nuclear plant near Toulouse shut a reactor due to cooling-water limits; Dorfman calls it a “canary in a coal mine,” warning inland nuclear faces growing cooling/discharge problems; coastal risk includes storm surge flooding.
- Climate science: Hawkins says June UK temperature record will be smashed by 3–4°C; emissions from fossil fuels drive extreme heat; adaptation needed (e.g., air conditioning in hospitals/schools) alongside rapid emissions cuts to net zero.
- US politics: Lincoln Memorial reflecting pool drained/refilled with deep-blue paint; algae and temperature issues; five arrests for alleged vandalism (including people touching pool paint).
- Mozart: newly found 22-year-old Mozart manuscript documents composition lessons for Marie-Louise Philippine de Bonnières de Guinée; includes seven previously unknown flute-and-harp compositions; earliest evidence of Mozart teaching composition.
- US-Iran: US insists on UN nuclear inspector access as a “red line”; Iran disputes narratives; Lebanon seen as a major vulnerability.
- EU-Taliban: Belgium issues visas for a Taliban delegation to attend EU migration talks; critics warn it risks normalizing Taliban’s restrictions on women and girls.
- Cape Verde: World Cup draws vs Spain and Uruguay; economists cite tourism and consumption boosts; fan-zone crowds triple since tournament began.
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Chapters
Tap a time to open that second in VORecord High Temperatures in France
0:00 to 0:37
Discussion on a weather report predicting extreme temperatures in France for August 2050 and its implications.
“This BBC podcast is supported by ads outside the UK.”
Record High Temperatures in France
1:26 to 2:20
Discussion on a weather report predicting extreme temperatures in France for August 2050 and its implications.
“Deliat did a weather report predicting the weather in August 2050.”
Warnings and Consequences
2:20 to 2:57
Exploration of the immediate effects of the heat wave in France and across Western Europe.
“24 years before those predictions were due to come into effect.”
Government Response to Heat Wave
2:57 to 4:24
Insights into the French government's emergency response to the heat wave and public safety measures.
“And an energy crisis exposing the folly of a world hooked on hydrocarbons.”
Impact on Nuclear Energy Production
4:24 to 5:48
Discussion on how rising temperatures are affecting the operation of nuclear plants in France.
“We did hear from the Prime Minister, didn't we, about the number of people who've died in heat-related deaths?”
Future of Nuclear Power in a Warming World
5:48 to 7:58
Examination of the challenges faced by nuclear reactors due to climate change and rising temperatures.
“Like many other nuclear plants, it relies on nearby river water to absorb heat generated during energy production.”
Expert Insights on Climate and Temperature Records
7:58 to 9:10
Professor Ed Hawkins explains the significance of current temperature records and the dangers posed by extreme heat.
“How serious is this, given that more than 60 % of France's electricity is generated by nuclear power?”
Government Actions and Public Response
9:10 to 13:54
Discussion on government adaptations to rising temperatures and personal actions to mitigate heat effects.
“Well, let's now get the perspective of a climate scientist on all of this.”
Mozart's Manuscript Discovery
14:15 to 14:44
Discussion about a newly discovered manuscript by Mozart.
“This is one of the most important discoveries of the last decades.”
Current News Headlines
14:44 to 15:10
Brief updates on significant news events.
“Lebanese media says Israeli soldiers have opened fire on a group near a bulldozer clearing a road in the south of Lebanon, killing two people.”
Show all 20 chapters
Renovations at the White House
15:10 to 19:16
Overview of recent renovations and controversies surrounding the reflecting pool.
“And in recent months, the Trump administration's been on a bit of a renovation spree.”
Mozart's Unique Teaching Method
19:16 to 24:20
Exploring the teachings of young Mozart through his newly found manuscripts.
“And of course, it's not a democratic donor getting this project.”
Challenges for Disabled Workers in Germany
25:06 to 28:00
Discussion on the discrimination and challenges faced by disabled workers in Germany.
“Disabled people are the most unfairly treated minority in Germany.”
Disability Employment Legislation in Germany
28:00 to 28:36
Learn about Germany's efforts to reform disability employment legislation.
“for people with a disability in terms of skilled workers because a huge number of businesses are looking for people and we're trying to get a foothold in that market.”
Economic Changes Since Brexit
28:41 to 32:44
Explore the economic impacts and migration shifts in the UK since Brexit.
“That's the result of this referendum, which has been preceded by weeks and months of argument and dispute and all the rest of it.”
US-Iran Negotiations and Nuclear Inspections
32:44 to 36:40
An update on US-Iran negotiations regarding nuclear inspections and sanctions.
“Now let's bring you an update on the latest with the US and Iran.”
Iran's Perspective on Nuclear Deal
36:40 to 40:36
Insights from Ali Vaez on Iran's perspective and challenges in negotiations.
“Of course, we don't know what will happen in the future.”
EU's Complex Engagement with the Taliban
42:02 to 45:10
Explore the EU's controversial dialogue with the Taliban regarding Afghan repatriation.
“to send back some of those who could not obtain documents on the emergence of right-wing or conservative political parties in European countries.”
Cape Verde's Historic World Cup Journey
45:10 to 45:54
Learn about Cape Verde's surprising qualification for the World Cup and its societal impact.
“And of course, let's not forget the fact that women's rights have been virtually erased in the country.”
Economic Impacts of World Cup on Cape Verde
45:54 to 48:35
Understand how the World Cup affects Cape Verde's economy and tourism.
“But as well as the sport, what impact is the World Cup having on the economy of Cape Verde?”
Transcript
Automatic transcript. May contain errors.0:00This BBC podcast is supported by ads outside the UK.
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1:17Hello and welcome to NewsHour from the BBC World Service, coming to you live from London. I'm Rajini Vaidyanathan. Now, in 2014, in France, a weather presenter named Eveline Deliat did a weather report predicting the weather in August 2050.
1:40And tomorrow morning, temperatures will be high with 26 degrees in Paris, Pépinon and Nice. In the afternoon, temperatures will reach or rise above 40 degrees, 41 in Aon, 41 in Strasbourg, 40 in the capital, 42 in Lyon and up to 43 degrees expected in Nîmes. You may say, come on, this is just fiction for 2050. Well, this weather report is not a product of my imagination. It's been developed with great seriousness by Matteo France. Indeed, well, France has already hit those high temperatures that she talked about there. 24 years before those predictions were due to come into effect. Now, the country has recorded its hottest ever night Monday into Tuesday, and the heat has led to a number of deaths in the country.
2:33We'll be live in France in a moment. Heat weather warnings have also been issued across other parts of Western Europe, in Italy, Spain and here in the UK. Today in London, the UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres sounded a warning about those soaring temperatures. And here in London, the city of Dickens, it is clear that our world is facing a tale of two crises. A climate crisis pushing us deeper toward higher temperature and closer to catastrophic tipping points. And an energy crisis exposing the folly of a world hooked on hydrocarbons. Well, I'm joined now from Nice in France by the BBC's Pierre-Antoine Denis.
3:19Good to talk to you, Pierre. I've just seen that the Eiffel Tower is going to be closed because of these soaring temperatures. Just tell us how this is all affecting the country. Yeah, it's been affecting the country massively, Regini, especially since the weekend when this heat wave started and temperature started to soar. We've had 40 people that have died as a result of drowning since Saturday. The big Fête de la Musique, Music Day on Sunday was impacted with authorities trying to enforce an alcohol ban, which didn't really work. But nowadays, we're seeing now a bigger plan at the end of an emergency crisis meeting from the government this morning, which resulted in a deeper plan in terms of maintaining the health care system all across France as a result of this heat wave.
4:15because there is a fear that we could have a repeat of 2003 when 15 ,000 people died as a result of a long sustained heat wave all across the summer. Pierre, you mentioned deaths there. We did hear from the Prime Minister, didn't we, about the number of people who've died in heat-related deaths? Yeah, absolutely, yes. So 40 so far, which are as a result of drowning or other incidents. We've had, for instance, the tragic situation where an 11-year-old boy was drowning and the 13-year-old, his friend, wanted to save him and both of them drowned in the centre of France. These situations have been dotted all around the country and could appear again should these temperatures stay on or reappear in the summer.
5:02That's the fear from the government. But I've been trying to put in place some messaging all across the news channels here in France and among the public broadcasters to try to showcase what to do and more importantly, what must not be done when it comes to these heat wave and also to only go and bathe in places which are allowed. As in many, many cases, we're seeing situations where people went to bathe in places where it was not allowed or at least there was no security there. OK, Pierre-Antoine Denis, thank you very much for bringing us up to date on that heat wave in France. We're going to stay in France because the record heat there is having far-reaching consequences.
5:46The Golfec nuclear plant in the south of the country near Toulouse has been forced to switch off a reactor because of those rising temperatures. Like many other nuclear plants, it relies on nearby river water to absorb heat generated during energy production. That's then discharged back into the water at a higher temperature. But when it's really hot, the water can't be pumped back out as it can threaten local biodiversity. Well, Paul Dorfman's a scientist from the University of Sussex. He spoke to us from Paris and told us why this matters. Nuclear cannot operate without cooling water and discharge of cooling water.
6:24And so basically what we're seeing now is it's like a canary in a coal mine. It's the beginning of what will happen. The rivers with climate will low flow, they will heat, and the reactors will increasingly have problems both with getting river water, because that water may be wanted elsewhere, but also essentially discharging that heated water back to the river because it would kill the river. How unusual is it then to see a nuclear plant shot down because of a situation like this? Well, it's happening more and more. It's happened over the last few years, and we're beginning to see it more and more.
7:04So at risk would be reactors like Bougie, Saint-Albert, Vyderone, Tchikistan. Basically, what we're seeing is the beginning of this happening. This is the start of what will happen to inland nuclear, both in France and elsewhere. And are there no ways to mitigate this, to protect from this, given that temperatures are rising? What can be done? You know, you see these large cooling towers emitting what is essentially just steam. You know, people think it's smoke, it's not, it's steam. And so there's some potential to build larger cooling towers and to try to sort of get around this. But essentially, no, there's no real technical way around it.
7:48There's no solution to this problem. And all that implies for inland nuclear going forward. How serious is this, given that more than 60 % of France's electricity is generated by nuclear power? It's hugely serious. The problem is almost, one can never say never, insoluble. And that goes for inland reactors and of course by the coast what we know about the coast is that the coasts are receding we know the climate is impacting sea level rise which we hope will be stepwise but the real problem with the coast is what's known as storm surge where certain atmospheric conditions meets high tide and the sea basically moves up and inland and what we know the models predict quite securely that, say, in the UK, when the UK government and EDF are about to construct size, we'll see a new large nuclear power plant.
8:49We know that by the time that plant will have been constructed, that nuclear plant will be almost cut off by storm surge flood water at least once per year. So we know that there are both problems inland and by the coast. That's Paul Dorfman there. Well, let's now get the perspective of a climate scientist on all of this. Ed Hawkins is the Professor of Climate Science at the University of Reading here in the UK. Welcome to NewsHour, Professor. How unusual are these temperatures that we're currently seeing across Western Europe? The temperatures we're seeing now, they're highly unusual. We're going to, in the UK, we're going to absolutely smash the June temperature record, which was set all the way back in 1976.
9:40And we're going to break that by about three or four degrees over the next few days, which is a pretty extraordinary event. How dangerous are these kinds of temperatures? They're exceptionally dangerous for the vulnerable and the people who may struggle with their health. But they're also exceptionally dangerous for those who are still healthy, especially if you're trying to be productive at work, for example. or if you're trying to take exams in stifling exam halls at school, your concentration will not be what you might hope it would be. And if you imagine trying to recover in a hot hospital ward, also these heat makes it much harder to do.
10:14And what's driving these rising temperatures? Well, it's a very clear answer. What we're seeing is that our emissions of greenhouse gases, primarily from burning fossil fuels, is fuelling this massive rise in temperatures during extreme heat waves. and if we do not act to reduce our emissions drastically to net zero over the coming decades temperatures will just get hotter and hotter and hotter and hotter and hotter until we do reach net zero emissions. And in terms of some of these governments we heard from the Prime Minister of France earlier for example I mean how are governments responding to this challenge particularly when in some of these countries they're not as accustomed to such high temperatures as other parts of the world perhaps?
11:02So you know in the UK we have to do two things we have to adapt you know our society and the infrastructure on which it's you know is based is built for a climate that no longer exists and so we need to adapt we need to install air conditioning for example in our hospitals and our schools and our homes and our workplaces but we also need to take actions to reduce our greenhouse gas emissions and that's a global problem it needs global solutions it needs every country to step up and reduce their emissions over the coming decades and the UK and Europe can certainly lead in that. And how much time do we have?
11:41Well it's all about if the quicker we do it the less bad it gets as I said you know the heatwaves will just continue to get hotter and hotter and hotter until we reach net zero. And so it's entirely in our hands how hot things get. It's all about our choices that we make over the coming decades. And when you look at the rest of the world, of course, because we see other countries also experiencing high temperatures, what do you observe that's perhaps different from this particular heatwave in Western Europe? Well, I mean, as you say, we're seeing heatwaves all over world. We're breaking temperatures in every part of the world every year, it seems.
12:20It is a global problem. We are seeing countries like China step up. They are building more renewable energy than the rest of the world put together. There are solutions to tackle this problem and we need to enact them. What are those solutions? I mean, we often talk about these summits and leaders promising to reduce net zero and those kinds of things, but are they drastic enough? As I said, you know, it's all about our choices. The quicker we reach net zero, the less bad things we'll get. And so, yes, we do need to scale up our renewable energy production. It will provide every country with energy security and cheaper energy as well.
12:57Batteries are going to play a huge role in this by removing the need to have that base load from fossil fuel sources. So, no, the solutions are already available and often they'll be cheaper than the fossil fuel sources we currently rely on. And just one last question, what can we do ourselves as well to protect ourselves from this intense heat when many people don't have the luxury of saying, well, I'm not going to go home, I'm going to stay home or I'm not going to go to work? So, you know, if you're at home, then you should close your curtains, keep your windows shut during the day to stop the heat coming in, drink lots of water, stay hydrated and keep yourself as cool as you can and check on those around you who are perhaps more vulnerable.
13:39Check on your neighbours and your friends. And then also you need to talk about what you're feeling and what you are taking, the personal actions that you are taking to look after yourself today, but also the actions you're taking to reduce your own emissions going forward. Thank you very much. Lots to get through there, wasn't there? Ed Hawkins, Professor of Climate Science at the University of Reading. Thank you very much for joining us here on NewsHour.
14:11Coming up, a newly discovered manuscript by Mozart. This is really amazing. This is one of the most important discoveries of the last decades. Mozart, when he was in Paris in 1778, composed a piece for harp and flute with an accompaniment for the orchestra. And we have a letter by Mozart from this time to his father where he talks about this. That interview with the director of the Salzburg Library coming up in a few minutes from now. A reminder of some of the other headlines we're watching in the newsroom here. Lebanese media says Israeli soldiers have opened fire on a group near a bulldozer clearing a road in the south of Lebanon, killing two people.
14:55And Kenya's government's complied with a court order to immediately halt the construction of an Ebola treatment facility intended for American citizens.
15:09Now let's take you to the United States. And in recent months, the Trump administration's been on a bit of a renovation spree. His team have paved the famous Rose Garden, redesigned the White House interiors and done up the ballroom. And very recently, given the iconic reflecting pool, the long body of water in front of the Lincoln Monument, a makeover as well. Well, those$14 million changes to the reflecting pool, which saw it drained and refilled, were described by the president as beautiful. But the pools continued to be plagued by algae problems and it's developed issues with the deep blue paint that President Trump added to its bottom.
15:50Well, five people have been arrested for vandalism in connection with the reflecting pool. That's according to the US Park Police. Well, Daniel Lippman is White House and Washington reporter at Politico. Good to talk to you, Daniel. Just take us through all of this then. Why were people arrested over the pool? The people who were arrested were for varying reasons, and they haven't really released the charges. But it looks like they were even touching the pool, kind of taking a little bit of a souvenir potentially. But Trump has said yesterday, oh, these people had brought knives and fertilizer to mess up my project, and we haven't seen any evidence of that yet.
16:28And just tell us about the renovation of the reflecting pool. I've seen it, I know it well, but I haven't seen it since he's had this refurb. So what does it look like and why so much controversy over it? So what's interesting is that the reflecting pool has long had issues with algae for the last hundred years, because this is a shallow pool of water, It bakes in the sun and the piping and drainage and plumbing system has really not been upgraded for a very long time. So Trump, ahead of the 250th anniversary of the country, he wanted he painted this all blue on the bottom. But when you do that, it creates it.
17:12It adds up the increases the temperature and the heat in the pool. And so it seemed to create more algae. and it looked like a fetid pool of green from airplanes where they had news photographers taking pictures of it. So it was not in line with the beautification of Washington that Trump always talks about. And he's been quite vocal about this. I mean, he's got a lot on his plate, but he's had the time to comment on this, hasn't he? Yeah, this is in line with his adding, trying to add the White House ballroom, doing the big arch on your way into D.C. from Virginia. But of course, Republicans would rather have him talk about the economy and get on the road to sell his economic agenda, because they know most people are not going to vote based on the colour of the water in Lincoln Memorial Pool.
18:03I mean, just looking at some of the arrests, I've seen reports of people who say they were arrested just for walking past the pool and weren't actually vandalising it. So have you got to the bottom of any of that? Yeah, these seems to be like trumped up charges on some of this stuff. They even arrested a former Olympian. And so if they touched the water, they considered that vandalism, I guess. Yeah, he said he touched a piece of the peeling paint and was detained as a result for five hours, I think. This is a kind of a question of the law enforcement priorities in the Trump administration, because we thought they were going to focus on violent criminals and not people touching a pool.
18:46Indeed. And just a very quick final thought on all of this. I mean, this is all, as you say, part of the buildup to the 250th anniversary of America. How much is all of this playing into the wider debate over how it should be marked? I think it's a part of that. But also one of the big elements of the story is some of the money ties where one of the contractors for this pool project was a big Trump donor. And so that's kind of where you see, you know, follow the money. And of course, it's not a democratic donor getting this project. And so that was kind of ironic. Okay, Daniel Littman, thank you very much for taking us through all of that.
19:30Now, how's this for a discovery? You're a librarian at the National Library of France, going through old notebooks and manuscripts, and then you find something truly special. lessons on composition by none other than a 22 year old mozart well that find by francois pierre a curator at the library documents mozart's teachings with a student including seven previously unknown compositions for the flute and harp well those works were played publicly for the first time on sunday at the national library of france performed by flautist mathilde calderini and harpist nicolas tuye
20:21Francois sent that discovery to his colleague Armin Brinzing, the director of the Mozart Library in Salzburg in Austria. I've been speaking to him about it all. With this manuscript, there's no name written on it, no title. So it was in the shelves for many, many years. And my colleague just went on cataloging it thoroughly. And so he discovered that there's Mozart involved. I mean, that's incredible, isn't it, Armin, that this notebook was just kind of lying around in the dusty archives. And this goes back to a 22-year-old Mozart. Yes, exactly. Yeah, this is really amazing. I'm really sure this is one of the most important discoveries of the last decades.
21:06yeah we know that Mozart when he was in Paris in 1778 composed a piece for harp and flute with an accompaniment for the orchestra and the person who commissioned this work he played the flute himself and his daughter played the harp and so he commissioned this work and this work is very well known, K299, a very famous piece by Mozart. And we have a letter by Mozart from this time to his father where he talks about this. And it's really fascinating. Here in this letter, he writes about his composing lessons he gave to this young woman, Marie-Louise Philippine de Bonnières de Guinée. and he explains in detail how he tries to teach her how to compose.
22:06The father, for whom Mozart composed this work for harp and flute and orchestra, wanted Mozart to teach her how to compose works for the two instruments, for flute and harp. So that's why he paid Mozart to give her lessons in composition. So in this manuscript, Mozart tries to teach her how to compose. He does it in different ways and it fits perfectly to what he writes in his letter. So we find this also in the manuscript. He gives her a task, for example, writes one part and she has to add another part to the composition and so on. And so it's a mixture of Mozart and his pupil. And it's very exciting to compare the two handwritings and to see what he writes in his letter.
22:53This is, by the way, also the earliest document we have of Mozart being a composition teacher. We only knew of other manuscripts from his time in Vienna, but this is the earliest one. And also very special in this case is that we do not only have the manuscript, which he worked on together with his pupil, we also have this letter where he describes the method, how he tries to teach her composing and what he thinks about her abilities. With these pieces for harp and flute, there's a lot of her in those compositions. Often we see Mozart writing the beginning of the work and then she has to continue or several points where he does not like what she composed and just crosses it out and writes something different, of course, more interesting.
23:42So it's really a collaboration of the two in those works. I imagine just finding that notebook in that dusty library. That's Armin Brindzen, the director of the Mozart Library in Salzburg in Austria.
24:20promise of a better, freer, richer life. But is it still attainable? I feel like the American dream is alive, but not well. For more, listen to The Global Story on BBC.com or wherever you get your podcasts. Decisions made in Washington can affect your portfolio every day. But what policy changes should investors be watching? Washington Wise is an original podcast from Charles Schwab that unpacks the stories making news in Washington right now and how they may affect your finances and portfolio. Listen at schwab.com slash Washington Wise. That's schwab.com slash Washington Wise.
25:05Welcome back to NewsHour. Disabled people are the most unfairly treated minority in Germany. That's according to one former member of Parliament there, who says it's especially the case in the world of work. The unemployment rate amongst disabled people is twice that of people with no disability. And when they do find work, they tend to be paid less than the minimum wage and work in places without the usual rights and protections often. Well, Amy Zayed's one of the very few disabled journalists working in Germany. She asks what can be done to make the country more inclusive.
25:42this is a small group and we have here people with severe disabilities and a very high need of assistance so right now you see this is what in germany we call a a workshop for disabled people some 300 000 disabled germans work in places like this one in Paderborn. The boss, Carla Bredenbals, shows me their gardening project. I think this project is a nice project because it shows that for us it's not always about working, it's about developing people. But these workshops are controversial in Germany. The disabled people who come to work here are often making goods for commercial companies but are paid less than the minimum wage.
26:29There is no group that experiences more discrimination than people with a disability. Hubert Hüppe is one of the most prominent critics of the workshop system and of the way disabled people are separated from the rest of society. He says this separation begins early. In principle, once you become part of this segregated system, you never get out of it. So you'll go from a special kindergarten into a special school and then into one of those sheltered workshops. The workshops are supposed to prepare people to work in the mainstream economy. But only 1 % of people in workshops ever make it to what we might call a regular job.
27:13Carla Bradenballs acknowledges that this is too few. I know that the critics are there, that there's only 1 % of people going back to the first market. and I do think also that that's way too low. Here in Dortmund, they are holding what they're calling an Inclusionsmesse. It's a trade fair for inclusion companies. An inclusion company is one where 30 % of the workforce is made up of disabled people. The director of the authority behind this event is Georg Luhnemann. He told me that at a time of economic difficulty in Germany, disabled people were an essential resource. We see a real opportunity in the labour market for people with a disability in terms of skilled workers because a huge number of businesses are looking for people and we're trying to get a foothold in that market.
28:11The German government says that it's working on legislation to reform the workshop system. This, it says, would enable more people than today to move into the mainstream economy. Well, you can hear from Amy Zayed on this week's edition of Assignment. That's here, of course, on the BBC World Service.
Read the full transcript
28:35You're listening to NewsHour from the BBC. I'm Rajini Vaidynarvan. Now, do you remember this? That's the result of this referendum, which has been preceded by weeks and months of argument and dispute and all the rest of it. The British people have spoken and the answer is we're out. That was, of course, the moment the Brexit vote was announced by the BBC. It followed a lively and divisive campaign. The UK voted to leave the European Union by 52 % to 48%. That was a decade ago. Well, Sarah Hall is an economic geographer at the University of Cambridge and Deputy Director of UK in a changing Europe.
29:17That's a think tank. I asked her first how she thinks things have changed economically since that vote. Very shortly after the Brexit vote, the Office for Budget Responsibility, which monitors the UK economy, estimated that they thought Brexit would have a long term negative effect of around 4 % GDP. And interestingly, they haven't changed that opinion. They continue to think that that's what the impact has been. But it didn't happen overnight. It's sort of an ongoing process. The UK economy has really struggled for growth, certainly since the Brexit vote and arguably really since the financial crash.
29:57Another key talking point around the Brexit campaign was migration. What has changed on that front? The UK has seen quite a sizable reduction in EU migrants coming to the UK. There was definitely a concern amongst Leave voters that sort of taking back control of borders was a key part of that rhetoric. I think what's really interesting is that, on the other hand, you've seen quite a significant rise in non-EU migration to the UK, particularly from India and Nigeria. And there's a number of reasons that research suggests why that's happening. And partly the government liberalised visa requirements in particular sectors, particularly health and social care, to try and support that sector, which was really struggling for employees post-COVID.
30:51We've also seen quite significant numbers of study visas for these countries. And also, I think it's really important to note that the UK has been part of quite significant humanitarian migration routes since Brexit. What we've seen in the last couple of years is the rise of the anti-immigration party reform UK. What would you say is the current conversation in British politics around all of this? And how is Brexit fuelling that at the moment? Maybe if we start with the economy, I think that's actually really challenging because straight after the referendum and in the early period of the Labour government, politicians didn't really want to talk about Brexit.
31:32They didn't want to talk about the negative economic impact. More recently, Keir Starmer was talking about quite a significant negative economic impact. And yet the policies that his Labour government had would only kind of change the economics of Brexit quite minimally. So there's a sort of growing gap, I would say, between a greater acceptance to acknowledge the economic downsides, but no kind of clear policy that would match the scale of that economic downside in terms of what might happen in the future. I think on the kind of politics and on the kind of immigration question, quite a lot of the Brexit vote was a vote of discontent from regions outside of London and the Southeast that didn't feel like the economic model was delivering for them.
32:25And I think given what's happened in the 10 years since then, and the UK economy is still really struggling to deliver growth, that's the kind of common thread through to parties like reform, where people are trying to register the fact that things haven't changed in these former de-industrialised parts of the Midlands and the North. Sarah Hall on 10 years since Brexit.
32:57Now let's bring you an update on the latest with the US and Iran. Iran's president, Masoud Pazeshkian, is in Pakistan a day after opening talks with America produced a roadmap towards a final peace agreement. Pakistan, of course, has been acting as a key mediator. Well, in a social media post, Iran's president said progress depends on sticking to precise obligations. He said statements outside the agreed text would not help. Earlier, the US Vice President J.D. Vance, who of course heads the American negotiating team, said Iran would allow the return of UN nuclear inspectors. We have the Iranians allowing weapons inspectors, nuclear inspectors into their country for the first time in a long time.
33:39We're obviously going to bolster that inspection regime to make sure they can never have a nuclear weapon. And just a few hours ago, President Trump posted something similar on Truth Social, also saying that those talks are going well. But Tehran has denied that they will allow inspectors in. Well, I'm joined now from Washington by the BBC's Bernd Deboosman. Bernd, the US administration seems to be quite confident on the issue of allowing inspectors, despite what we're hearing from Tehran. They are. And President Trump has been very insistent that that remains very much his red line. In his earlier Truth Social post, he said that if Iran hadn't agreed to that inspection regime, then these talks would stop.
34:24President Trump's repeatedly signaled a willingness that he would walk kind of walk away from the talks if the nuclear issue, more than any other issue in this conflict, wasn't being addressed to a level of his satisfaction. But for now, he seems to be kind of very insistent that Iran will allow these inspectors. He said in the post that, as I mentioned, they will have either nuclear honesty or that these talks would walk away. And he's even gone as far as saying the blockade is being lifted and that Iran will be purchasing food products, soybeans, for example, from the US. So certainly, at least publicly, he seems very, very confident that that particular issue, more than any of the other issues, is one that's being addressed in the current negotiations in Switzerland.
35:10Yeah, it was interesting because we obviously have heard from Iran saying that any statements outside the agreed text won't help. But of course, we often do hear from the US administration beyond the boundaries of what we're hearing in diplomatic settings. I think that's one of the more interesting aspects of this conflict is that many of these statements, both from the U.S. side and from the Iranian side, have also in a way been framed by observers as being focused on a domestic audience. Of course, we don't know exactly where these talks are, but I think it'd be very difficult for the administration to argue that this conflict has been a success if that issue with the nuclear issue, which President Trump had said from the outset is his main objective.
35:54At one point, he even said it was 99 percent of what he wants wasn't being addressed. So it's really hard to see where the truth is between these two statements. But it would be also it's very important for President Trump to frame this as a victory. Many Americans were not particularly enthused about this conflict from the outset and became much less so over time. So he also has to sell this negotiation process as something of progress and a victory to the American public. Yeah. And what's the reaction then to the fact that the Trump administration's temporarily lifting oil sanctions on Iran?
36:28How's that going down? Well, I think many Americans are still concerned about the price of petrol. It's still not gone back down to pre-war levels. President Trump supporters, of course, the hard MAGA base, many of them are simply happy that this war ended without the sort of prolonged foreign conflict that he campaigned against. Of course, we don't know what will happen in the future. I think many Americans are very concerned that this negotiations process is essentially just as a 60 day extension of a ceasefire and that we don't exactly know what happens next. President Trump, even as recently as this weekend, said he's willing to return to the blockade and return to full-on military operations if his demands aren't met in the negotiation process.
37:15So I think many Americans are just feeling very uncertain about this, where things go from here. Indeed. Ben DeBusman from Washington, thank you very much for that update. Well, let's stay on that story and speak to Ali Vaez, the Iran Project Director at the International Crisis Group, who's based in Geneva. Good to have you back on NewsHour, Ali. So we're hearing, as we discussed just then, two different versions of events when it comes to the nuclear inspections. Where do you see things from the Iranian perspective? It's great to be with you. Look, it's inevitable that there are going to be different narratives of victory and interpretations of this deal because the domestic political requirements in Tehran and Washington are just fundamentally incompatible.
38:06This happened in 2015. It will happen with every deal and it's just inevitable. But the reality is that Iran has to negotiate a new modality with the UN nuclear watchdog in order to get the agency access to the bomb sites. This is not something that the IEA has done in the past. And so it would require separate negotiations between Iran and the IEA, which to my knowledge hasn't happened yet. Indeed. And I wanted to ask you about, I think it's point 11 on that document between the US and Iran, which relates to Iran's frozen assets, which, of course, Iran wants to be released. Where do you think things stand on that?
38:47Well, on that front, my understanding is that half of Iran's part, the partial release of frozen acid, half of it was supposed to happen up front, given Iranian experience with the United States in general and President Trump in particular of reneging on commitments. And then half of it would be paid as progress payment as the Strait of Hormuz opens up and traffic goes back to pre-war levels. And in that sense, I imagine that already some of these assets have become accessible to Iran. Some of it's just for purchase of humanitarian goods, which are exempt from U.S. sanctions. And it is also possible that Iran has earmarked them to be only U.S.
39:34agricultural products in order to further satisfy President Trump. Marco Rubio, the Secretary of State, is heading to the Gulf, reportedly to defend what's been agreed with Iran. Who's he likely to be talking to? And what are the biggest challenges on that front? Well, in the region, he would be pushing against an open door because although a lot of these regional countries are very angry at Iran for targeting them, given that they house US military bases, but they also really wanted this war to end and straight and foremost to open. And what the MOU does is that it basically addresses the essential and differs to some of the substantial issues.
40:17And that is something that most regional countries, except Israel, of course, agree with. And so I think he would hear some constructive messaging when he's in the region. And just very briefly, how does the issue of Lebanon still play into all of this? We have seen some activity there, haven't we? Well, it remains the biggest point of vulnerability of this agreement, especially because as long as Israel occupies southern Lebanon, there is going to be clashes between Ezbollah and Israel and that would undermine US-Iran diplomacy without any doubt. OK, Al-Yuvay is Iran Project Director at the International Crisis Group speaking to us from Geneva.
40:57Thank you very much for that. Just a reminder that we do have more on that story as well on the BBC News website. We continue to bring you analysis on all of the stories. And of course, you can join the NewsHour podcast family. You can go to wherever you get your podcasts normally, Or you can go to the World Service website and sign up that way. I'm Rajini Vaidhinathan. This is NewsHour.
41:33Now, Belgium's issued five visas to a Taliban delegation to attend a European Union meeting on migration in Brussels. It would be the first time the EU has hosted the Taliban since the group seized power in Afghanistan five years ago. Well, Anbarasan Etta Rajan is our global affairs correspondent. Anbarasan, we're seeing reports that those talks have now taken place. First of all, how did this happen in the first place? Well, we have to see what is happening in Europe at the moment. There is a big debate about illegal migration and also about pressure for many countries to send back some of those who could not obtain documents on the emergence of right-wing or conservative political parties in European countries.
42:17So one of the things is about how to send back tens of thousands of Afghans. That has been an issue confronting the European Union countries, especially those who are not having proper valid document. And that is the backdrop to this. And that is what the EU officials have been saying that, you know, we have to be practical about this. If we want to send back some of these Afghan nationals, then we have to engage with those in power at the moment, and that is the Taliban administration. Now, at the same time, the EU is also insisting that by talking to the Taliban, it doesn't mean that the Europeans are recognizing the Taliban administration.
42:54We will continue to put pressure on the Taliban with regard to women's rights and human rights issues in that country. But at the same time, it is time to engage in a conversation, but it has also become controversial. But of course, it is controversial. And there are many who feel that this meeting risks normalising the Taliban, especially given their positions on women, banning girls from school beyond the sixth grade, erasing women from public life. And that continues years on. More than 60 human rights groups, including Human Rights Watch and others, I wish you would an open letter, criticising the European Commission for holding this dialogue with the Taliban, saying that at the moment, first of all, the Taliban have taken away all the rights of women.
43:40Basically, they are away from public life and they have to come completely covered with a full dress cloak. And also the secondary school education is off limits for girls. And they have also barred from public areas like parks and gyms. While this continues, you know, Pakistan and Iran have sent back nearly three million Afghans who were residing in the country in the past two years. So people are living in poverty, there is no economy, many people are depending on the handout from the various UN and other humanitarian agencies. So sending these people back, it's pushed their life at risk, number one.
44:18And what are they going to have that? Because that's a broken economy. Many governments have not been recognising them. So that is an issue for them. And just going back to that central point, I mean, does this risk legitimising the Taliban government, which is minimising the rights of women? In a way, European Union says we are not recognising the Taliban. In fact, even the meetings today, they can't be held in any of the EU official buildings. And at the same time, any of these EU officials, you know, talking about in their own buildings or premises about with the Taliban. So they are not recognising Taliban, they're insisting that, but they have to deal with it.
44:56At the same time, what the Taliban want in return, And probably they want something, expecting something. They've been urging the West to release the funds of the previous government frozen in many of these European countries here. OK, Ambaras and Eta Rajan, thank you very much. And of course, let's not forget the fact that women's rights have been virtually erased in the country. Really interesting developments, of course, from that meeting in Brussels.
45:25Now they've become the unlikely heroes of the World Cup, gaining fans and followers the world over. Cape Verde, a group of islands in the mid-Atlantic off the coast of Senegal, is the second smallest country to qualify with a population of only 400 ,000, but the team's already defying the odds in the early stages of the tournament. It's achieved draws in its group games against the much larger and former World Cup winners Spain and Uruguay. The Football Federation gets at least$12 million just for qualifying. But as well as the sport, what impact is the World Cup having on the economy of Cape Verde?
45:59Rachel Wright reports from there. I'm at one of the many fan zones with big screens that have been set up throughout the city of Praia and the excitement here is on another level.
46:17we're just minutes away from the beginning of their first world cup game ever against one of the tournament favorites spain and everyone is really excited very confident because for the first time they will see cape verde playing a so big game like this how do you feel about today I feel very proud because Cape Verde already won. It doesn't matter what happened there. The Cape Verde team is known as the Blue Sharks and it's the second smallest country in this year's World Cup. Most of the squad are from the large diaspora. That's probably why a country of less than 500 ,000 people punches way above its weight and has qualified for the World Cup.
47:05I'm with Paulino Diaz, who's one of the country's best-known economists and also a huge football fan. Paulino, tell me, how does the country feel today? I never saw something like this that we are witnessing today. This feeling of pride, of unity will have a huge impact on the economic side. I would say forever, perhaps, because there will be a Cape Verde before today and a Cape Verde after today. And of course Cape Verde's economy is largely dependent on tourism. I've come to the seafront in Cidad Vella on the Cape Verde island of Santiago and I'm with Paulina Diaz again. What are the short-term benefits that you think qualifying for the World Cup finals will have?
47:52For the first time everyone in the world is talking about Cape Verde for free. So everyone is trying to come to Cape Verde to know who is that, who the hell is this Cape Verde? This will attract for sure more investors to the tourism sector. And we also have the impact in the consumption. You'll see a crowd of people just buying flags, buying t-shirts, you know, in the restaurants, bars, small shops. Everyone is happy. When everyone is happy, you are more likely to consume. And this is a positive impact on the economy as well. As you can hear, excitement is at fever pitch as the game ends in a nil-nil draw.
48:35Cape Verde, the second smallest country in the World Cup against one of the favourites, Spain. The party is only just getting started here on this group of islands in the middle of the Atlantic. I'm with Kenny Andrade, who manages one of the bars here in Praia. Kenny, tell me roughly, since the World Cup started, you have double the amount of people? I would say triple. I hope I get to see more tourists coming this way, you know. Still little islands, but we make a lot of noise. They do indeed. Well, many of us are rooting for them, aren't we? That's Rachel Wright reporting from Cape Verde. That ends this edition of NewsHour.
49:17I'm Rajini Vaidhinathan from the team and myself. Thanks to you for listening.
From the publisher
Schools have closed in France. A nuclear power plant near Toulouse has been forced to switch off a reactor. Nuclear power plants cannot operate correctly without enough water of the right temperature to cool down reactors. When these temperatures climb too high, the reactors need to be shut down to avoid environmental damage caused by hot water being discharged into local water courses.
Also on the programme: the newly discovered manuscript containing composition lessons by Mozart; and the continuing woes of the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool in Washington DC.
(Photo: Young people cool off in the Fontaine de l'Observatoire fountain as temperatures rise in Paris Credit: Reuters/Abdul Saboor)
