US-Iran deal at risk after Israeli strike on Beirut

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0:42Hello and welcome to NewsHour. It's coming to you live from the BBC World Service studios in central London. I'm Tim Frakes. It's been a day of, it feels, fairly frantic back and forth in the effort to nail down a peace deal between the US and Iran, one that President Trump had confidently asserted would be signed today. And yet in the middle of the day, Middle East time, came the news that the Israeli military had launched a strike on Beirut, a strike, the IDF claimed, which hit a Hezbollah command centre and was a reprisal for the Iran-backed Lebanese militia firing into Israel. Iran threatened to retaliate, and President Trump let it be known that he was pretty furious.

1:25Let's get the latest from our correspondent in Jerusalem. Sebastian Usher. Sebastian, what's your understanding, first off, of how President Trump did react to this attack from the IDF on the Dakhir suburb of Beirut? Well, I mean, I have to say, we're almost exactly where we were this time last Sunday, although by then Iranian missiles, I think, had begun to hit Israel. But exactly the same choreography had been followed. Israel had hit the southern suburbs of Beirut. That led to Iran, which said it would hit back if that happened. Launching those missiles at the moment, we're getting mixed signals from Iran.

2:10But the clearer signal seems to be that there might be an attack. Now, the Americans, President Trump do not want that. And President Trump had another, it seems, and this is from his own account, foul mouth conversation with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Foul mouth from his end, not from Netanyahu's end. Oh yeah, absolutely from his end, but from his account. I mean, he's actually spoken to journalists and he's described in some detail the words that he used to Mr Netanyahu. And that is something that he's done, you know, a number of times now when Mr Netanyahu has done something that has looked like it is going to derail a possible deal.

2:51This time, it was very, very close. I mean, it really did feel tangible this time, I have to say. Yeah, well, I mean, and that I suppose that's the small difference between both Mr. Trump saying in the past a deal is close. And you know, what you were saying about last Sunday is that he had he had confidently said it will be signed today. And obviously, there's still somehow as to go Washington time. But, you know, he it feels as if he's, he's not entirely in control of events. No, I mean, he's not in, he's not entirely in control of what Israel is doing in Lebanon. He is to some extent in control of being able when the Israelis have done something which could derail the wider issues that President Trump is most interested in, which is this deal with Iran, of getting Israel to pull back.

3:43But then he's not, it seems, able to prevent from doing this again. And that's essentially because the Israeli government has said that it will continue to carry out its offensive against Hezbollah according to what it believes is its right and its strategy. And that strategy is if any missiles, any drones from Hezbollah come into the north of Israel, which they say did earlier today, then they will escalate. They'll strike the southern suburbs of Beirut. Now, I mean, the real question is, what do all these sides want? Do they want to continue this? You know, it isn't quite a ceasefire. It isn't quite an all out war.

4:19But, you know, a deal is always just in reach. And then something knocks it out again. I mean, can they actually sustain this for much longer? Or do they have to make a decision that enough is enough? And just in terms of Israel, what is the reporting there or what at least is the thinking there of how this might shake out for the prime minister and his political prospects? I mean, he is in a bind. I mean, he looked at one point like he might be one of the winners from the Iran conflict, but certainly not at the moment. That pressure we've been talking about from President Trump. But domestically, I mean, he is under attack.

4:58This is an election season from the opposition. Not that he is attacking Hasbulla, but that he isn't being successful in his strategy and that a ceasefire now is too early. That's there have been endless broadsides fired by the main opponents to him on that level. So he's in a very difficult situation. Sebastian Asher in Jerusalem. Thank you very much. Well, along with all the briefing, there's been a fair amount of briefing about what might be in this memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran, should it come to be signed. And I've been hearing more about that from Ali Vaez. He's Iran Project Director for the International Crisis Group.

5:40This is a page and a half long document. It contains 14 points. So by definition, it is not a very comprehensive, detailed understanding. What it does is that it brings the war to an end in a comprehensive manner at the regional level. It does start the process of reopening the Strait of Hormuz and also removing the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports. And that's a positive development. And then it has a few general points that really are superficial at the end of the day. A non-aggression understanding between Iran and the United States that implicitly applies to their regional allies. A commitment by Iran not to develop nuclear weapons and to dispose of its fissile material without really getting into the technical details of how that's going to happen.

6:32the promise of sanctions relief for Iran and a basically fund for Iran's recovery from this war, again, without really getting into the details of how that is supposed to be operationalized. The two sides are giving themselves a period of 60 days to fill in the details. But that's a very ambitious timeline, given the complexity of the issues at hand. Just in terms of some sort of financial reprieve for Iran, are you saying that the MOU would not have an immediate bonus for Iran? But the thought is that over the ensuing two months, there would be some sort of promise of money going to the regime in some fashion.

7:19The two sides have two very different narratives about it. The Americans are saying they're not giving Iran any money at this stage. and payments would be progress payments that would happen down the road when Iran delivers on its commitments. The Iranians, however, are saying because of the lack of trust, they want upfront payments and they are going to receive it in the form of a line of credit from the regional countries. In terms of what will count as sufficient progress on the nuclear issue, which would deliver satisfaction for both sides. I mean, everybody's been saying it's partly about what happens to the highly enriched uranium that's already in Iran.

8:04And it's also about how far enrichment of uranium needs to be halted inside Iran. Assuming that those are the two big issues, can you see a sort of a position which could possibly satisfy both sides? I can see the position. It is negotiating that it's harder than seeing the zone of possible agreement. So basically, the Iranians have in the past accepted restrictions and transparency measures on their nuclear program in return for economic incentives. So that I think they would be willing to do. and given the fact that it is now almost exactly a year since the 12-day war in 2025 when their nuclear program was bombed, that they haven't really enriched a gram of uranium.

8:53So their uranium program is in any case suspended. And I can see them continuing the suspension of enrichment for a period of time and then accepting a period of restrictions and transparency measures. They had also in the past put the offer of diluting and shipping out their stockpile of highly enriched uranium on the table. I can see them doing that as well. The difficulty is in negotiating the sequence of events and what they would get in return. That took almost two years, about a decade ago, when the Obama administration was negotiating with them. now we're starting from a negative starting point given the degree of mistrust and the difficulty of dealing with the Trump administration.

9:40I mean, just look at this one and a half page document. It's almost two months and back and forth and we still don't know when it's going to be signed. Ali Valles from the International Crisis Group. Switzerland holds lots of referendums. It's a big part of how this small European country does democracy. But today's referendum was particularly intriguing because Swiss people were being asked to vote on whether they wanted to limit the country's population, cap it at 10 million. In the end, the proposal was defeated, as I've been hearing from our correspondent in Switzerland. Mention folks. Well, on the surface, it looks a bit like an urban-rural divide where the cities were voting very heavily against this proposal of a population cap.

10:24and the rural areas were voting less heavily in favour. And what you've got is this 55%. No, around 45%. Yes. But what I find particularly interesting is in these urban areas, if you look at the big cities like Zurich, Bern, Geneva, Basel, they have the most immigrants. They also have the biggest pressure on them in terms of rising rents, sometimes overcrowded transport, more building going on. These are the communities which said by huge margins, no, we do not want a population cap. I'm just looking at the capital city Burns result. 84 % of those voting said, no, we don't want this. And I think that's a reflection of the fact that the cities first perhaps are more used to a diverse urban community but second perhaps more aware that Switzerland does need foreign labour.

11:28It's an aging population. If you go to the hospital in Bern you're going to find doctors, nurses, physiotherapists from all over Europe and if you're a patient mostly you'll be glad they're there. So I think this is one of the the key reasons that we see people have said no to this. But how far was the Swiss People's Party that was behind this proposal to cap the population? How far was it about a sort of culture war? The Swiss People's Party has waged a campaign against the European Union and closer ties with Europe for decades. But bit by bit, always by virtue of a referendum, the Swiss have advanced closer and they've approved free movement of people.

12:17Dependent on that also, of course, is Switzerland's access to Europe's single market, which the Swiss economy depends on. More than half of Swiss exports are sold into the single market. The other part of this argument, which the Swiss People's Party has also campaigned on for years and years and years is the issue of asylum. There is debate about whether they should accept more or less. And there's the old line which we hear right across Europe, they're not like us and they bring crime with them. Again, it doesn't really seem that this line sold, though it's been so many times to voters by the Swiss People's Party.

13:01It has not succeeded today. I would say there are going to be questions about the difficulty for younger people to get an affordable flat. What can be done about that? What the people who said no to this vote will say is, yes, we do have these problems. Yes, we do need to solve them. But it's not a look over there, that group who doesn't look like you and maybe doesn't talk quite the same language as you, it is not their fault. We need to solve these problems in a different way. Imogen folks speaking to me from the Swiss capital, Bern. And coming up here on NewsHour with artificial intelligence already changing the nature of many jobs, how can workers retain some control?

13:49The way technology actually changes the world of work or indeed any of our areas of our life is that, yes, there's what the technology can do, But then that is shaped by what institutions are in place, what regulations are in place, what does consumer demand want and not want? What do we reject? What do we decide? We actually we hate that. We're not going to pay money for that. More from the author of a fascinating new book on AI and work that's coming up in 30 minutes. Our main headline this hour, as we've been hearing, President Trump has criticised an Israeli strike on Hezbollah in Beirut, saying it mustn't disrupt efforts to conclude a peace deal with Iran.

14:26The Iranians, for their part, have threatened to retaliate in support of their Lebanese ally.

14:38This is News Hour, live from the BBC World Service with me, Tim Franks. The World Cup still has a long, long way to go. The group games have barely started, but we've just had a moment of history. The smallest nation ever to compete at the men's finals took to the grass in Houston against the four-time champions, Germany. And for a moment, the tiny Caribbean island of Curaçao had the European giants rocking. After going behind early on, Curaçao scored a splendid equaliser through their midfielder, Levano Comercia, Q Bedlam in the stadium and in the NewsHour office, where at least one member of today's team has a proud family connection to Curacao.

15:21Anyway, things got slightly more predictable after that, Germany ending up winning 7-1. Tito Rodriguez is a one-time scout for the Curacao Football Federation. He was watching on a big screen just outside the island's capital, Willemstad. I was at a watch party near the airport. There was around five to seven thousand people in there. When we scored that goal, I was in tears. I burst out in tears. The emotions overwhelmed me. It was such a beautiful thing to see, not only to just get our first goal on our World Cup debut, but to do it against a four-time world champion at that. And it was deserved as well.

16:04I mean, you were playing well in the first half of the first half. Yes, that first half, we played well. The second half proved too much for the players. But no matter the score, I'll just say that no one can take this from us. This was something that I will never forget. And it's a moment I will forever cherish. And also, it must be a cause of immense pride that Curacao is even at the World Cup. I mean, when you consider that you have qualified for the premier football competition when so many other far bigger nations haven't. Yeah, again, it's something no one can take from us. It's something that I can say from now on that, hey, we did something that much larger nations couldn't achieve.

16:52We've done something historic. We've proved to people, even in our region, that we're not a team to be taken lightly. We're going to be a problem for everyone in our region. It's just a moment of immense pride for me. And also, you should probably take some hope from this game into your next two games against Ivory Coast and Ecuador. Yeah, especially Ecuador. I think that's a game that is going to be a very special, very close game because Ecuador, while I think they probably have the best defence in the entire group, attacking-wise, they're not that great. So maybe we might be able to sneak a point from them.

17:30Here's hoping, and that's not to say anything against the great people of Ecuador, but I think that anyone, Tito, who has seen the Curaçao team, but also particularly the Curaçao fans, they're pretty much everybody's second team in this World Cup. I mean, the blue wave have really tickled everybody's hearts. Yeah, leading up to this tournament, I saw a lot of people constantly doubting us, saying we didn't deserve to be here. But as the tournament drew closer and people actually got to see the team and the players for who they actually are, people started being like, oh, these guys are cool. These guys are great.

18:11You can see how much this means to them. And just to see the positive comments, even now after the game, seeing the amount of respect that people are giving us, it's just something that brings a tear to my eye. Curacao fan, slightly disappointed, but nonetheless, Tito Rodriguez.

18:33Now, what does it feel like to be President Putin's youngest enemy? Well, 17-year-old Alexander Browder might have an idea. He's just been sanctioned by Russia after publishing research into how Moscow may be using cryptocurrency to evade Western sanctions. The teenager, who's due to take his final exams at school next year in the United Kingdom, says it's proof his work has touched a nerve. And if you were wondering about his family name, well, you're right. His father, Bill Browder, is a high-profile anti-corruption campaigner and longtime critic of President Putin. Back to son Alexander, though.

19:11My colleague Julian Warwicker asked him first how he found out he'd been sanctioned by the Russian government. It's a funny story. I'm still in high school. I was sitting at the back of my economic class. I opened up my laptop and I saw a Reuters headline stating that I was sanctioned. It's unprecedented. They've never sanctioned a high schooler before. And so it's clear that my work exposing their cryptocurrency laundering schemes has touched a nerve. They're obviously unhappy with what you're doing. So explain in sort of layman's terms what that work involves. Yeah. So over the past year and a half, I created the largest open source database of cryptocurrency money laundering.

19:56And what I discovered is that state sanctioned actors like Russia, Iran and North Korea are heavily utilising cryptocurrency to launder their funds. And specifically, a recent development with Russia's money laundering efforts is that they created Russian backed stablecoin. So a stablecoin is a type of cryptocurrency which is backed to some real value like the dollar or gold. And in this case, it's backed by the ruble. It was set up in January 2025 and it's been sanctioned here in the UK, in the EU and the US. But it still continues to function. And not only does it function, it thrives. There are reports that in the first year of operation alone, it's processed over$100 billion in cumulative volume.

20:45So my efforts have been trying to take this down. And the way it's been able to continue to function is through enablers. And in this case, there are enablers within Kyrgyzstan. And what I discovered is that many illicit cryptocurrency exchanges, which allow the stable coin to be converted into cash, are registered in Kyrgyzstan. And even more shockingly, it's been reported that the mastermind behind this scheme gifted the Kyrgyz president a luxury jet. And two months ago, on the back of my work, 26 senior MPs and lords wrote to the UK foreign secretary urging sanctions on these enablers. Well, two weeks ago, the government responded by sanctioning these enablers.

21:29But then what came out of surprise to me is that I myself was sanctioned by Russia. You mentioned sanctions several times during that explanation. I mean, clearly, people listening to this conversation will be aware of the sanctions that already are in place against Russia because of what's happening in Ukraine. But is your argument that this particular methodology that you've described gets them around those sanctions? Exactly. Cryptocurrency for the Russians has become one of the key tools that they use to skirt Western sanctions and also not only that, to fund their war of aggression and target Western countries.

22:10For example, another thing I've discovered is that the Russians are financing terrorist attacks on the UK and other Western countries through cryptocurrency and also through their political interference efforts using cryptocurrency. For example, in Moldova, they sent over$100 million in cryptocurrency to pro-Russian political parties to interfere in their elections. And so it's really become a national security threat. And this is why I was testifying to Parliament two months ago, where I urged the UK parliamentarians to ban the use of cryptocurrency within political donations. And in terms of that connection that you've made with parliamentarians in Britain, do you think there's a sufficient understanding amongst those people that you're talking to about what might happen under the heading of cryptocurrencies?

23:01I'm relatively young, and so I understand this system well. But the issue is that many people have no idea about how cryptocurrency works. And indeed, most of the senior politicians I speak to have no idea how any of it works, how money gets laundered through cryptocurrency. And it's a really pressing issue because you have bad actors like Iran, North Korea and Russia who are able to move billions through cryptocurrency because they can set up such advanced schemes where politicians and authorities have no idea how to stop them. Alexander Browder.

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24:26And today on the show, we answer your questions about this moment and what to expect in the years to come. From the BBC, it's the United States at 250. Listen to The Global Story on BBC.com or wherever you get your podcasts.

25:04at the stories that matter most to investors, including policy initiatives for retirement savings, taxes and trade, inflation concerns, the Federal Reserve, and how regulatory developments can affect companies, sectors, and even the entire market. Mike and his guests offer their perspective on how policy changes could affect what you do with your portfolio. Download the latest episode and follow at schwab.com slash Washington Wise or wherever you listen.

25:36Welcome back to NewsHour. In the Netherlands, a two-week trial has started of a speed limit for cyclists. The Dutch government boasts, it's on their official website, that they're the number one country in the world when it comes to cycling. So why this experiment? Our correspondent in the Dutch capital, The Hague, is our own great bike enthusiast, Anna Holligan. This is such a Dutch dilemma. And the question at the heart of all of this is, how far do you restrict freedom-loving cyclists in order to protect the vulnerable people on the bike lanes? So the children, older riders, in a country where bikes are so integral to daily life, from school runs to commutes.

26:16And every morning, I ride about 20 kilometers an hour back and forth to school. That's the limit they're trialing in Houten, which is a place near Utrecht in the centre of the Netherlands. Every morning, I'm overtaken by teenagers on fat bikes. So these electric bikes that get their name from the size of the wheels, people in their 70s on e-bikes, commuters racing to the office. More than a quarter of all journeys here in the Netherlands are made by bikes. So the cycling infrastructure, it's a victim of its own success. The Dutch are trying to keep that world-class reputation. So this trial is happening because cyclist deaths rose pretty dramatically last year, 14 % to 281.

27:01And on top of that, an estimated 81 ,000 cyclists ended up in accidents and emergency rooms being treated for various kinds of injuries. The lanes that we're riding on every day, they're designed for the traditional sit-up and beg or granny bikes as they're called over here in the Netherlands. But now they're carrying a huge array of users. So they have to find a way to allow all of those different types of riders to coexist without jeopardising anyone's safety. How's it going to work, though? Because, I mean, I assume that they will have cameras positioned at various points along the cycle lane in the way that you get speed cameras positioned for cars.