In short
Preview of multiple NFL Week 14 games, focusing on matchups and key matchup edges.
Guest
Bill Barnwell, ESPN NFL writer and host of the Bill Barnwell Show.
Key claims and notable examples
- Packers vs Bears: Packers favored by 6.5. Barnwell says Bears’ defense is “turnover or bust,” ranking 29th in points allowed per drive on non-turnover drives. Packers offense has only 7 giveaways all season and protects the ball well. Concern for Bears: weak pass rush; Love has the biggest under-pressure completion/accuracy splits. Example stats: Caleb Williams off-target rate 22.1% (worst-tied), 37.8% when pressured.
- Chargers vs Eagles: Eagles favored by 3. Justin Herbert may play with a broken left hand. Barnwell expects Chargers to lean on the run and exploit Eagles’ personnel uncertainty (e.g., Jalen Phillips integration, Jihad Campbell benched). Eagles lead league in three-and-outs; Chargers defense healthier.
- Texans vs Chiefs (Sunday night): Chiefs favored by 3.5. Biggest issue: Chiefs offensive line injuries (Josh Simmons dislocated wrist likely out/IR; Trey Smith/Juwan Taylor questionable). Barnwell’s prescription: “run the damn ball” from under center to avoid third-and-long and limit Steve Spagnuolo’s exotic blitzes. Texans success rate on schedule is top-3 over last month.
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Chapters
Tap a time to open that second in VOPreviewing Bears vs. Packers
0:58 to 2:24
An analysis of the upcoming game between the Bears and Packers, including key matchups.
“Wasabi Hot Cloud Storage, proud partner of iHeart Podcast Network.”
Previewing Bears vs. Packers
2:32 to 3:11
An analysis of the upcoming game between the Bears and Packers, including key matchups.
“This is Tab Ramos from Inside American Soccer.”
Previewing Bears vs. Packers
3:45 to 4:36
An analysis of the upcoming game between the Bears and Packers, including key matchups.
“I think of myself as the defining writer, NFL writer, at least of my own household.”
Defense and Turnovers Discussion
4:36 to 6:51
Discussing the Bears' defense, turnover statistics, and the Packers' ball security.
“It's the Kevin Burkhart, Tom Brady game in the afternoon.”
Caleb Williams' Performance Concerns
6:51 to 11:05
Evaluating Caleb Williams' passing abilities and challenges against the Packers' defense.
“And I want to see if the Packers can kind of continue the Christian Watson led evolution of this passing attack.”
Herbert's Injury and Matchup Insights
11:05 to 14:01
Insights on Justin Herbert's injury status and the implications for the Chargers' game.
“The only player in the NFL who has a worse off-target rate when he's under pressure is Aaron Rodgers, who is actively trying to avoid getting hit at all costs.”
Chargers' Offensive Challenges and Herbert's Limitations
14:01 to 18:12
Discussing Justin Herbert's injury, the Chargers' offensive line, and their supporting cast's impact on the game.
“Unfortunately, it's almost a shot at them.”
Eagles' Defensive Struggles and Chargers' Strategies
18:12 to 23:08
Analyzing the Eagles' defensive issues and how the Chargers can exploit them during the game.
“for Justin Herbert and this Chargers offense.”
Eagles' Performance Concerns and Coaching Decisions
23:08 to 25:04
Examining the Eagles' performance and the potential impact of coaching decisions as they face the Chargers.
“Now they're trending back towards being one of the best.”
Chiefs vs Texans Preview: Key Matchups
25:04 to 28:00
Previewing the upcoming game between the Chiefs and Texans, focusing on offensive and defensive matchups.
“I know they're not going to announce it or anything, but whether he's going to have a bigger hand, he's returning to the place where he cut his teeth.”
Show all 19 chapters
Chiefs vs. Texans: Game Strategies
28:00 to 37:17
Discussion on the game strategies for the Chiefs and Texans, focusing on running the ball and avoiding third-and-long situations.
“And I'm so spooked by the chiefs that this all, when you say these things, it all just seems to be setting up.”
Chiefs vs. Texans: Game Strategies
38:20 to 38:58
Discussion on the game strategies for the Chiefs and Texans, focusing on running the ball and avoiding third-and-long situations.
“So tackle your home improvement projects by Saturday and earn your Sunday with great deals on LG and Bosch appliances, select Bounty and Swiffer cleaning products, and more.”
Chiefs vs. Texans: Game Strategies
39:34 to 41:01
Discussion on the game strategies for the Chiefs and Texans, focusing on running the ball and avoiding third-and-long situations.
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Gambling Help Resources
42:00 to 42:25
Learn about various resources for gambling support in the U.S.
“in partnership with Kansas Crossing Casino and Hotel.”
Broncos vs. Raiders Matchup Analysis
42:25 to 47:40
An in-depth discussion on the upcoming Broncos vs. Raiders game and key players.
“He said he had to go to a coffee shop to do some prep.”
Rams vs. Cardinals Preview
47:40 to 52:34
Analyzing the upcoming match between the Rams and Cardinals, focusing on strategies and player performance.
“They actually maybe should be better than nine and three.”
Stafford's Performance and Team Dynamics
52:34 to 54:42
Discussion on Matthew Stafford's recent game performance and its implications for the Rams' season.
“we'll set you up I guess with that you gotta go pick up your kid I do.”
Stafford's Performance and Team Dynamics
56:00 to 56:32
Discussion on Matthew Stafford's recent game performance and its implications for the Rams' season.
“Tell your doctor if you get a lump or swelling in your neck.”
Stafford's Performance and Team Dynamics
56:40 to 57:07
Discussion on Matthew Stafford's recent game performance and its implications for the Rams' season.
“We all get distracted when we drive, whether it's from our phones or kids in the backseat bickering.”
Transcript
Automatic transcript. May contain errors.0:00Bill Barnwell:This is an iHeart Podcast. Guaranteed human. Lowe's knows Sundays are for football. So tackle your home improvement projects by Saturday and earn your Sunday with great deals on LG and Bosch appliances, select Bounty and Swiffer cleaning products and more. Then once your to-do list is done, get ready to kick back, relax and enjoy the game. Shop in store or online now and earn your Sunday with help from Lowe's, official partner of the NFL. Wasabi is purpose-built to free your business from skyrocketing storage costs and fees. Wasabi is the go-to provider for professional and collegiate sports teams around the world.
0:39Bill Barnwell:Check out Wasabi's AI-enabled intelligent media storage, Wasabi Air, to the industry's only cloud storage service with triple protection against cyber criminals. Wasabi, driving innovation in data storage for up to 80 % less than market competition. Try for free at wasabi.com. Wasabi Hot Cloud Storage, proud partner of iHeart Podcast Network. Are you looking for support in your weight management journey? ZepBound Terzepatide may be able to help. ZepBound is a prescription medicine used with a reduced calorie diet and increased physical activity to help adults with obesity or some adults with overweight who also have weight-related medical problems to lose excess body weight and keep the weight off.
1:22ZepBound is approved as a 2.5, 5, 7.5, 10, 12.5, or 15 milligram injection. ZepBound contains terzepatide and should not be used with other terzepatide-containing products or any GLP-1 receptor agonist medicines. It is not known if ZepBound is safe and effective for use in children. Don't share needles or pens or reuse needles. Don't take if allergic to it. Or if you or someone in your family had medullary thyroid cancer, or if you've had multiple endocrine neoplasia syndrome type 2. Tell your doctor if you get a lump or swelling in your neck. Stop ZEPBound and call your doctor if you have severe stomach pain or a serious allergic reaction.
2:00Severe side effects may include inflamed pancreas or gallbladder problems. Tell your doctor if you experience vision changes before scheduled procedures with anesthesia. If you're nursing, pregnant, plan to be, or taking birth control pills. Taking ZEPBound with a sulfonylurea or insulin may cause low blood sugar. Side effects include nausea, diarrhea, and vomiting, which can cause dehydration and worsen kidney problems. Talk to your doctor. Call 1-800-545-5979 or visit zepbounce.lily.com.
2:32Bill Barnwell:This is Tab Ramos from Inside American Soccer. And this summer, Topgolf is turning into the ultimate soccer destination. They've got a new soccer-themed game you can play with your group, exclusive food and drink items. They've even installed full-size soccer goals so you can try to hit golf balls right into the net. And every match all summer long will be on throughout the venue. And if you want to keep the fun going all summer, you can get the Topgolf Summer Fun Pass, which lets you play every single day and bring up to five guests every visit. Get yours now at topgolf.com slash fun pass.
3:11Bill Barnwell:Welcome to NFL Daily, where we love a good day-night doubleheader. I'm Craig Rosenthal here in the Chris Wessling Podcast Studio talking to my friend for the second time today. Yes, you read him at ESPN. You listen to his podcast, Bill Barnwell Show, and he's been the defining NFL writer of his generation. I'll say it. I did his podcast earlier in the day. Everyone check that out, and you're here to join me, Bill, to talk a really good five pack of games. Welcome to the show. Thank you, Greg. What an intro. I think of myself as the defining writer, NFL writer, at least of my own household. No.
3:55Bill Barnwell:So expanding it out to the generation. I'm trying to think who else it would be. This is a podcast for another day. Like Greg Bishop is a sneaky one in the mix. You know, Connor Orr is great. But I'm saying. Connor Orr is excellent. I'm not really writing anymore, but we're not going to talk about that. We are going to talk about double headers. So the Bears and the Packers, they're playing twice over the next 18 days, or at least after Sunday. They're going to have a Thursday night game to cap this twofer. And we're going to talk also later about the Monday night game, the Houston-Kansas City, the Sunday night game.
4:35Bill Barnwell:It's going to be great. But I think we have to start with this Packers game. Packers are favored by six and a half. It's the Kevin Burkhart, Tom Brady game in the afternoon. And the Bears continue to ascend in terms of the quality of the opponent. Yes, I'm putting the Packers over the Eagles at this point. And ascend in terms of the importance of the game. What concerns you? Because that's a pretty big number the Packers are favored by in a game where the Bears are the number one seed in the NFC. if the bears let's say don't even cover that number where it's more than a touchdown in this game what do you think would go wrong for the bears for them to lose by two scores let's say their defense would stink and unfortunately great we talked about this as we were taping my show earlier the bears defense might stink it might actually be a bad defense so stat i would refer to here is points allowed per drive on drives that do not end in fumble recoveries or interceptions.
5:37So basically, what do you do when you don't force a turnover? The Bears are 29th in the NFL in points allowed per drive by that metric. So basically, their defense is turnover or bust. And thankfully, they have the highest turnover rate in football, second highest rate of any team over the last 10 season, so they force a lot of turnovers, which is very good. The problem is they are playing a Packers team, which has the fewest giveaways of any offense in football this year. Just seven turnovers this entire season for the Packers offense. Now, admittedly, when they have turned the ball over, it has been at disastrous times, probably cost them a game against the Browns earlier this season.
6:19Jordan Love, he's known for putting the ball in danger in moments where you don't typically want the ball to be in danger, but this Packers team protects the football really well. And to me, that is kind of the only way the Bears have played defense well this season. Now they are getting back to Yelon Johnson, who came back last week. Kyler Gordon is back. You might be able to make the case that they are a more complete defense, perhaps, than they were earlier this season. But I just don't think that's a great matchup for what the Bears want to do on the defensive side of the football.
6:51Bill Barnwell:No, I agree. And I want to see if the Packers can kind of continue the Christian Watson led evolution of this passing attack. And I do think their size like Anto Tavian Wicks. And at some point, obviously, Jaden Reed isn't adding size to the mix, but he'll add a certain sort of dynamism. But can this offensive passing attack get reliable? Because the numbers would tell you Jordan Love has been reliable this year. But the eye test and just the quarters at a time, halves at a time where this offense just goes away is not baked into those numbers. And so I do want to see that. The thing I'd be most worried about, and you got to it, was the pass rush for the Bears is probably the biggest weakness, I think, on their entire 53-man roster.
7:42Bill Barnwell:and Jordan Love, while protected this year, has easily the best numbers in the NFL at any quarterback. Like, everyone thinks of Jared Goff as the ultimate pressure, non-pressure quarterback split. Right now, even though you have the image of Jordan Love making some good plays while backing up, he actually has the biggest splits of anyone, under pressure or not. And I don't think the Bears are going to apply a lot of pressure in this game. I don't think so either. I mean, the one thing I would say maybe is that this would have been such a good matchup for Tucker Craft against a Bears team that's going to be missing at least one starting linebacker in Jermaine Edmonds, if not two.
8:20TJ Edwards has come back to practice, which would be a major help for the Bears. But you do want to throw on their linebackers, want to throw in the middle of the field on them. And we'll see if Luke Musgrave can be that guy. Josh Jacobs, of course, can catch the football, although he's had kind of a rough season for the Packers. but you know you flip it greg and you mentioned that the weakest spot on the bears lineup is their pass rush the only other position that comes to mind for me is left tackle where the bears are now on their third left tackle of the season and the the packers have a pretty good pass rusher who might be able to uh cause caleb williams some trouble in this game i thought you were
9:00Bill Barnwell:going to go the biggest weakness is like their passing game which is more general or get real spicy and say their quarterback or something because we we hadn't hit on on nfl daily the comment by ben johnson that they're winning in spite of their passing game which the next day because he knew that got a lot of run in chicago and nationally he he pointed out how happy he is with caleb williams that it wasn't about caleb williams and that like he's making good decisions which I think for the most part is true. The decision-making has been good. He is last in the league, Caleb Williams, in completion percentage over expected.
9:38Bill Barnwell:That matches the eye test, that the ball just isn't going where he wants it to go enough. What is your level of concern against this Packers defense throwing the ball? Because we'll get to the run game. I think the Bears will be able to run the ball in this game, but you're going to need Caleb Williams to make some play. Do you agree with Ben Johnson's assessment? Yes and no. I'm probably a little more pessimistic maybe than Ben Johnson is about, I do think he's making the right decision a fair amount, but I think he's making the safer decision a fair amount of the time, especially early in the year, even when they were on Monday Night Football, you saw Trey Eagman pointing out, hey, this is the time to take a shot.
10:16You're getting, I'm not going to lean on this over and over again, but you're getting quarters, you a deep post, that's where the ball should be going. And there's nothing wrong with taking those check downs and taking them underneath throws necessarily. Obviously, a short completion is better than a sack, but you're only going to get so many chances per game for those explosives. And the reality is, unfortunately, like you said, Caleb Williams is missing enough of his throws that they're going to need those explosives, not only in the run game, but also in the pass game, to sort of make hay against the Packers.
10:47He has a 22.1 % off-target rate. That's the tie with Michael Penix, basically for the worst in football. But when he gets pressured, now everyone is going to put a higher off-target rate up when they get pressured. His off-target rate when he's pressured is 37.8%. The only player in the NFL who has a worse off-target rate when he's under pressure is Aaron Rodgers, who is actively trying to avoid getting hit at all costs. So my concern is really more game flow than Caleb Williams' talent. like if there's a scenario where the Bears get up 14 nothing in this game early and the Packers are one dimensional and the Bears can run the football and Caleb's throwing off a play action.
11:32He's throwing off boots. He's not throwing in third and long while he's trailing the entire game. That's going to be fine. I think they will have opportunities to throw the football. Caleb is a talented player. He's made some really impressive throws this year and he's going to be in control. but if the bears do get behind early they have to abandon or at least sort of not you rely as heavily on the run as it normally would caleb's dropping back on second down on third down they're in second and long third and long a ton that is the sort of situation where i feel like the pass rush can ruin the game for the bears especially with micah parsons against uh their tackles it
12:06Bill Barnwell:sounds like we're both a little skeptical that the bears can pull this off and i i'm a i'm a fan of bill you know he he does it all in that little jag right there you referred to a big internet you know storm over someone uh doubting the great mina kimes our friend uh about stupid about why would you ever about how you yeah it is stupid uh attacking uh you know quarters coverage uh with deep ball uh you pivoted naturally earlier to the left tackle position yes yeah you could just put coach in your Twitter handle. There you go. No one checks it. No one's like, oh, no one verifies whether you're a coach or not.
12:47Bill Barnwell:It's a great point. And you also, you know, got a nice dig at Aaron Rodgers, which lets me do a stat that I forgot to do on the first part of the show, which that he has completed exactly one pass under pressure in the last three games combined, which is just outrageous. All right. We have to move on from this game, but I cannot wait to watch it. Jordan Rodrigue. We let a different person pick which game is the number one draft pick of what game they're going to watch and quote unquote cover on our show every week. And she had the number one pick this week. I think she made the right choice with the Packers and the Bears that that would have been my pick as well.
13:20Bill Barnwell:But I am very excited to attend at SoFi Stadium. My first game this season there at least since the barn burner Chargers Saints preseason game Chargers Eagles. The Eagles are favored by three. Of course, it's your colleagues. I know you're tight with Joe Buck and Troy Aikman. Maybe that line is baking in Justin Herbert's wrist injury. What, you don't hang with Joe? Does Joe Buck and Troy Aikman know who you are, do you think? That's a good answer to that. If I say yes, I'm bragging. And if I say no, I'm being honest. And it's a little sad. So let's just leave it to a mystery. I think humble no is better.
14:03Bill Barnwell:Unfortunately, it's almost a shot at them. Because if they really know ball, they would know. I bet Troy Aikman does. I don't know about Joe Buck. That's actually my take. I don't think either of them know. No, I think Troy does. I think that line is baking in Herbert playing, or probably playing. So he's day-to-day. The reports from Dan Graziano at ESPN is like, you know, they're going to take it, and he's very hopeful. He thinks he can do it. I just watched him play an entire game with a broken left hand, and he held the hand away from him. Watching that on replay was incredible because he was literally holding it up while he was getting sacked on the other side of his body.
14:45Bill Barnwell:So if he can do that, he's playing in this freaking game. He's a badass. And here's one thing I didn't get to on your show, Bill, because we didn't talk Chargers. For all the talk over the years about Herbert, they're doing him dirty. They don't give him enough weapons. They're not supporting him. I like where this defense is at. Obviously, a good defense. It's healthier. Helps out a quarterback. We got the offensive line problems. We know. But they brought Jamari Sawyer at left tackle last week. Might have stabilized things a little bit. You're giving up some run blocking to get the pass blocking.
15:19Bill Barnwell:Might have stabilized things a little bit. Trey Pipkins is back. And this group of weapons is great. Like, they have five. They have four guys over 500 yards right now receiving, including Aranda Gadsden, who's a Rookie of the Year candidate. And Kimani Vidal is looking great in the backfield. And we might get Amari in hand. Like, he's got a lot to work with. it's Herbert's year. I think he can do this. I think he can get this win. He's got one hand, though. You mentioned all the other stuff, but he has a hand in a Nintendo power glove, and he has one hand to use. Now, you can win with one hand.
15:53We saw him play well last week with one hand. I guess the place I would start with this, Greg, is knowing your quarterback is compromised, maybe, or at least limited at the very least. And given that we just saw the Eagles get run over by the Chicago Bears last week, do you think the Chargers, whether it's Manny Vidal or, like you said, perhaps a returning American Hampton, do you think they'd try to lean super heavy into the run and just try to win the Greg Roman way and just go super run first, the way he might have a few years ago in San Francisco or in Baltimore? Or, and I guess the other question is, do you think they can do that if that's their game plan and philosophy heading into the game.
16:36Bill Barnwell:I think they will try, yes. I have my doubts whether they can. I think Vidal's played better than I ever would have expected. I think he's going to have a good career. And if you add Hampton to the mix, that's a great group. But even last week against the Raiders, to me, it was more about him breaking tackles than it was about the blocking. The Eagles, if you're going to beat them defensively, And I'm not, I'm not selling all my Eagles defensive stock because of that one game or even the last two games. Like I do think it's probably better done on the ground. I do have my doubts of this Chargers offensive line protecting for four quarters against this Eagles pass rush.
17:17Bill Barnwell:Even if I think they're like upgraded, maybe from where they were three weeks ago, where it was like really just destitute. Yeah. I mean, saw your blade left tackle in the past. I thought he did a reasonable job. I was sort of surprised they did not go back to that earlier. I mean, they were playing Trevor Penny at left tackle before they gave Salyer a shot, which never really made sense to me. I do agree that it's going to be tougher for them to succeed on the run. The Bears game was a lot of zone runs against the Eagles. They are the second best team in football by EPA per play on zone runs.
17:49The Chargers are 16th in EPA per play on those zone runs. And I would flip it and think about what Vic Fangio does really well, and it's disguised as coverages. Pre-post snap, he wants to spin his safeties. He wants to, even post snap, he wants to mask what his safeties, what his coverage defenders are actually doing. He wants to give the quarterback as little info as possible. And that's been a difference maker for Justin Herbert and this Chargers offense. He's fifth in the NFL in total QBR, our sat over ADSPN. When he faces disguised coverages this year, he's 21st. I'm sorry, when he does not face disguised coverages, fifth.
18:2521st when the coverages are disguised. And so, he'll put the ball in danger, put the ball on a tight window. I do think I'm a little concerned about that, but I know the Chargers are a work in progress on the offensive line, but this Eagles defense, you know, the key pieces are still there, but they're still figuring out what their best personnel is. I mean, Jihad Campbell, who was a defensive rookie of the year candidate earlier this year, basically been benched for N 'Kobe Dean. He hasn't played at all. He hasn't played defensive staff at all last week even when they were getting run over on the ground.
18:53They're integrating Jalen Phillips. Michael Carter was in the lineup as a slot cornerback and then kind of fell out of favor. We saw more Dory Jackson from here and there. It just sort of feels like even though we're two-thirds of the way into the year, the Eagles are still trying to find what their best personnel groupings are, what they should be doing against bigger packages, what they should be doing in obvious passing spots. And it feels like there's always at least one or two spots in the lineup teams can attack. And so for the Chargers, I just think it's, you know, can they find a Dory Jackson all that often?
19:25Can they find the Kobe Dean in coverage all that often? Can they find those spots that they can take advantage of before they end up trailing in this game?
19:34Bill Barnwell:Yeah, Reed Blankenship is another one that Ali Connelly on our recap show of those of the Black Friday game pointed out. Everyone should check out, by the way, Ali and I are back. The Saturday Sicko show is coming back for its second episode on Saturday. The Clarence Atlantic podcast. It is. It is quite exciting. they're by the way a ball possession offense and I do want to flip and talk about the other side but it is interesting when you think about the Bears and what they did maybe they can do what the Bears did but in a different way the Chargers are second in the NFL I was surprised to see this in plays per drive so a lot of that is Justin Herbert making magic on third down frankly but yeah like by the way if he goes and has an awesome game and I'm leaving this open for a lot of quarterbacks out there Dak is in that mix Like if he has an awesome game on Monday night, you'll start hearing, Hey, why not Justin Herbert for MVP?
20:26Bill Barnwell:I don't think it's that crazy in a year where there's not like totally obvious guys. Okay. On the other side, Philadelphia leads the league in, in three and outs. And this is where, you know, you can see the path for the chargers winning because you don't think that they'll need as many points. Their defense is healthier right now than it's been all season, certainly at edge, but they also have Elijah Molden, some key guys up front. T.R. Tart and Deshaun Hand who have had injuries. They're back. One of their best cornerbacks Tarheeb still is back. So they're just healthier. And one thing I saw last week against the Raiders, they were a lot more I know it was the Raiders, but they were more creative doing kind of the Mike McDonald type of stuff and like Blitzy just getting a little more creative, which I think could work against this Eagles offense.
21:14Yeah, I mean, you know, the Eagles are a different offense without Lane Johnson. We've known that for a decade, more than a decade at this point. They are a different team. When Lane Johnson is not on the field, he is not going to play in this game. And this is not an offense that is the most, how can I put this nicely? Good? Extensive? No, okay. Good is maybe a nice way to put it as well, or a realistic way to put it. It's sloppy. It's inconsistent. It's exploitable. And, I mean, the Eagles are a team that win by dominating with their personnel. They are not a team that's winning with their scheme.
21:50And so that could mean limited pass protection groupings. That could mean things you can exploit with your blitzes, with your sim pressures, to your point. There's a lot of ways I think you beat the Eagles that are beyond just simply our guys are better than your guys. Because the Eagles have incredible personnel, especially when everyone is healthy, which is obviously not the case right now. But I think for the Chargers, the thing you're hoping to have this be is sort of similar to what you said about the Chargers on the ball. Can you force the Eagles to drive down the field with six or seven first downs?
22:21Can you take away the explosives, which they have no explosives in the run game right now? They have plenty of explosives in the passing game. Don't have to spend this at some big games. Adrian Brown has had some big catches even over the past couple weeks. If you can take stuff away over the top and just force Jalen Hurts, force Taequann Barkley, force the offensive line, force the receivers to not drop passes, to not commit penalties, to not allow sacks, not allow pressures, just to be a grinded out offense, they're going to make mistakes. They just have not been consistent enough to pull that off.
22:50And I trust that Jesse Minter and the chargers have that kind of big picture ability and vision. I do think they can execute that and do that throughout 60 minutes of a football game.
23:00Bill Barnwell:They've been really versatile this year. They've also been very streaky. They started the year as one of the best defense in the league. They had about a month where they were one of the worst defense league. Now they're trending back towards being one of the best. But one thing I like that that you mentioned and that they can do is, I think, change it up week to week and really build a game plan. Right now, I think the veterans on this team, they've been in this system for a while. And like I said, they're healthier. If it's not obvious enough, I like the Chargers. Can I ask you a question? Yes, please.
23:29Very quickly. So if you pull Eagles fans, I would say about 90 percent of them think that this is the 2023 collapse happening again.
23:38Bill Barnwell:Yeah. how confident are you that this is the 2023 collapse happening again to the eagles not confident i don't think it's going to be that bad i i that let that was crazy it's going to be a little bad though yeah i i do i think they'll find a way to like beat the raiders and the commanders a couple times maybe they lose one commander's game and like if they lose a playoff game one and done they're competitive that was one of the worst teams in the nfl by the end of the season. It was so, but I've almost, I can't remember another situation like that where a team turned into one of the worst teams in the NFL for the last month of the season.
Read the full transcript
24:12Bill Barnwell:And like everyone just assumed they were going to get blown out in the playoffs. And then they did. And it was a team that had a super bowl predigree. I don't think they're going to be like that. Like, I think they'll probably lose in more heartbreaking fashion in these games if they're, if they're going to lose. Yeah. I mean, I just, last week they missed an extra point that would have tied the game. They're in position in the red zone to score. Jalen hurts fumbles in the tush push the week before. They go up 21-0 on the Cowboys. They're positioned to get in the red zone and score again. And a penalty gets good catch called back.
24:41And then they fumble on the next play. There's been a fair amount of bad luck. And the defense is still playing well enough. I know they didn't play great against the run last week. But they have been good enough that I'm not anticipating a Matt Patricia-led collapse here down the stretch. So they might be not as good maybe as they looked earlier this year. But I don't think they're going to have a collapse the way they did in 2020.
25:00Bill Barnwell:And keep an eye on Nick Sirianni. I wouldn't be surprised if he is calling the plays this week. I know they're not going to announce it or anything, but whether he's going to have a bigger hand, he's returning to the place where he cut his teeth. You know, they have moved up, up the highway from San Diego to here. He didn't coach in SoFi Stadium. I hope he doesn't go to the wrong stadium. Yes, but he was a charger for a long time. It's time for the Sunday drive presented by Toyota. Let's go places. Texans in Kansas City. Chiefs are favored by three and a half. it's the NBC A team Rico Collinsworth I do know Chris Collinsworth personally?
25:39I've had a conversation or two with him I did a panel with him at a conference once
25:43Bill Barnwell:I have never had a conversation with him but he once pre-taped different segments for a fantasy show it was called The Fantasy Fix with me and Tiffany Simons on NBCSports.com about 18 years ago where he pre-taped the segment kind of like Michael Jordan is doing with Mike Tirico where he did it all in one day and he had to just sit there for 20 straight segments and ask us a question hey Greg and Tiffany who do you think is gonna okay that was a bad Chris Collinsworth but I tried that was not bad that was good oh man that was so much better than I could have done who do you think should start for the Packers Sam Congato or Amon Green or is it like something like that um I just love that these two teams are playing each other right now is awesome.
26:34Bill Barnwell:Because the Chiefs are just holding on for dear life, and the Texans are reborn. And yet whoever loses this game is in a tough spot, including the Texans. What fascinates you most from this game? Oh, Greg. Fascinating me. Terrifying me. Scaring me. The Chiefs offensive line versus Will Anderson and Daniel Hunter. So according to the most recent reports, as we tape this on Wednesday afternoon here on the East Coast, Josh Simmons has a dislocated wrist. Probably not going to play. I think he's going to IR. The word is he's going to IR is the expectation. Typically, you don't play with a dislocated wrist.
27:18I feel confident on that one. Trey Smith, Juwan Taylor, both questionable. It sounds like maybe the wrong side of questionable for this game. Greg, that means Jalen Moore, according to Chiefs beat reporters at right tackle, Mike Caliendo at right guard. And yes, after spending the entire offseason trying to avoid this happening, the Chiefs are expecting the Wanya Morris experience to happen again at left tackle against the scariest one -two punch of edge rushers in all of football, in Will Anderson and Daniel Hunter. it's a absolute nightmare for the Kansas city chiefs to have this happen against this particular opponent.
28:03Bill Barnwell:That's so well said and true. And I'm so spooked by the chiefs that this all, when you say these things, it all just seems to be setting up. Well, well, of course then Andy Reed's going to come up with this great game plan. And we're going to be talking Sunday night about how did they overcome all of this? But you know how many times I've thought that this season and then it, but it hasn't happened. And like how many times I thought, well, yeah, this is the moment where, you know, when it's not looking great, actually, they're going to do this. And they don't. And I'll ask you this. Like, do you think Andy Reid's missing something here?
28:39Bill Barnwell:Does he need a little inspiration? It's almost like they've just run out of ideas or something. Maybe having so many limitations this week, they'll somehow come up with something crazy like the Andy Reid of old. I feel like we haven't been seeing that, even though we've been seeing prime Patrick Mahomes. I don't know if we've been seeing prime Andy Reid. Craig, I'll tell you what. Andy Reid can just watch this show. I will tell Andy Reid what he needs to do to win this game. He doesn't need Matt Nagy. He doesn't need a big staff. I'll keep it very simple for Andy Reid and the Chiefs. Run the damn ball.
29:16And run it from under center. And don't do your shotgun runs. Don't do your RPOs. Get underneath center and run the damn ball. The Chiefs are the second best offense in football by EPA per play on under center designed rushes. And the Texans, Greg, are 26th in EPA per play on under center design rushes. I don't think there's anything they can do to stop those edge rushes. We saw in the Super Bowl last year, right? Like they tried to chip with Kelsey. They tried to help out on their best player and Jalen Carter and then have one-on-ones elsewhere. It didn't work. Kelsey's not a good chipper. They had fewer guys going out into routes.
29:53There just wasn't anybody getting open. And the Chiefs were still losing enough of their one-on-ones to the Eagles that Mahomes was still getting sacked, even though at some points they were max protecting or keeping seven in protection. I don't think you want to lean heavy into the pass in this game. I think you want to try to run the football. You want to try to give your offensive lineman as much help as possible. You want to avoid third and long as much as possible. And I don't know if that's going to work because this is a inferior version of the Chiefs offensive line than the one they've had at their best earlier this year.
30:24But especially if you can get Trace Smith in the lineup, I think you have to give it a shot just because to me, that is the most plausible way you can have a sustainable and successful offense against this Texans team.
30:37Bill Barnwell:Barnwell becoming a run the damn ball guy in his dotage. You know, who would have thunk it? Forget Rams, Panthers. That's the biggest upset of the year. I think Pacheco looked better last week than he did early in the season he hasn't looked great for a couple seasons I thought just to my eye he had a little more juice last week and limited snaps they still were using cream hunt so he would be the guy if you can get kind of the old version of Pacheco back on the flip side like can Houston's offense continue to kind of catch a groove of normality. Now, they're mixing in these dumb plays where they mess up in short yardage or they have illegal formations or they're handing it off to the tight end.
31:26Bill Barnwell:There's still some real Texan-y stuff in there. But whether it was Davis Mills or CJ Stroud last week, especially in the second half, they have been pretty cohesive as just like a normal looking offense, especially passing the ball. And they're getting more out of Xavier Hutchinson and Jaden Higgins and Dalton Schultz, which I think is really important to have kind of an array of options for CJ Stroud to go to. We know Nico Collins is a badass. He'll probably be matched up on Trent McDuffie for a lot of this game. It's a pretty ordinary defense for the chiefs. And so I do kind of feel like the, the Texans are coming into their own as just a normal offense.
32:06Bill Barnwell:Do you think they can keep that going? I like when you say mix in dumb plays, like there's a section of the play sheet that just has dumb plays. Plays do not call. And Nick Kelly cannot resist the urge to call that play in the wrong spot. Well, it's like poorly executed plays. Just like in that Colts game, they could have won by a lot more if they could just pick up a yard in third or fourth and one. So it's not even necessarily a play call, but they they're still not great is my point. But the rest of the they are moving the ball a little bit. They are moving the ball. And so they've been way more efficient on a play by play basis.
32:40And there's a stat called success rate, which measures how often you stay on schedule on the offensive side of the ball. They are third in success rate on offense over the last month of the year, even though Mills was playing quarterback for three of those four games. And the way they're doing it to me is by getting another offensive lineman on the field. They have leaned heavily into the six offensive lineman sets, which, number one, their linemen aren't very good. So getting an extra one on the field helps. Just creating a further path for edge rushers to get to the quarterback. It kind of simplifies some of your pass pro because, you know, if you're going to full slide, if you're going to try to get one-on-ones, it's a little easier to have an extra lineman on the field.
33:18So you can handle, you know, some bigger fronts better. They've been running the ball more efficiently. They have had a 55 % success rate with Sticks offensive lineman sets over the course of the year. Second best rate in football. and for the Chiefs I think that's a really big problem because number one they want to live in nickel anyway like they'll play base defense if they have to but they want to live with five six defensive backs on the field a lot of the Steve Spagnuolo exotic stuff is going to come out of nickel and dime packages and so by getting into six-o-line sets you're basically daring them to match with their base defense and then you're limiting a lot of what Spags can do with kind of his exotic pressures.
33:59And then I think the biggest thing is if you can avoid the third and long. That was, I think, the biggest problem for the Texans last year. They had 6.2 snaps per game and third and eight plus. And with their offensive line, that was a nightmare. I mean, all those third and longs were disaster. They had 15 of them in the two games against the Chiefs last year and only converted four of them. And so this year, it's down to five per game over the last four. It's still not ideal, to your point. Still some sloppiness. This run game has not been great. It's been maybe a tiny bit better. But if you can avoid those third and longs, you're getting away from the spags, the spags downs where he can dial up his best stuff.
34:37You're getting away from the places where you're going to be blitzable, where your tackles are going to be one-on-one. If you can avoid those spots, this offense is going to be fine. And by staying on schedule and having a high success rate, you are avoiding those third and longs. And so that's going to make this a very tough matchup for the Chiefs if the Texans can pass the ball well on early downs, even if it's on a big plate, even if it's just a three, four, five yard gain, avoiding the negatives, avoiding the penalties, avoiding the sacks, that's how this offense moves forward. Yeah, this is, I never count out Steve Spagnuolo
35:06Bill Barnwell:to have the right game plan, but it's just an ordinary defense. They don't have enough. Can I give you one more stat, Greg? Please. Chiefs defense this year when they blitz, 32nd in the NFL in pressure rate. That is the tough part for me with this Chiefs defense is that their identity is the perfect blitz at the right time. And I don't think Steve Spagnuolo has forgotten how to blitz. It's just been way less successful when they have blitzed at any defense. If you blitz and you don't get home, you're in a terrible problem. And so if the Chiefs are not going to get home with their blitzes in this game and they have had a lot of trouble getting home with their blitzes this year, I would expect Jaden Higgins, Xavier Hutchinson, Nico Collins, even Dalton Schultz to have a lot of favorable matchups downfield and CJ Stroud to find those receivers.
35:50Bill Barnwell:And just judging on eye tests, like the last month, the Houston offensive line for all the grief that they've taken been like, yeah, it's been pretty normal. I would say it's been like a little below average. Ben Baldwin does this. It's very hard to get metrics on offensive line. Yeah. Where they have, he, he combines three different offensive line metrics from sports and flow info solutions and PFF and the SBN. And they were like 20th. And I was like that. That's great. That's normal. All right. That's going to be an awesome game. I think I'm taking the Texans. Let's take a quick break and we're going to be back to wrap up the week 14 slate.
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42:33Bill Barnwell:He's a pro, and I can see that prep in this show. This is the part of the show that's got to test you a little more. Broncos heavily favored at Vegas. I feel like we've covered the Raiders too much lately on this show. It's just been so bad. The Broncos are obviously the more interesting side. Could this be a rare? Okay. Bear with me here. A revenge game for Bo Nix and the Broncos just against how bad they looked against the Raiders. Last time, everyone was making fun of them for how terrible they look putting up like 200 yards of offense against the Raiders. So it's a revenge game against expectations and it's in the perfect, you know, conditions of a Legion stadium.
43:17Greg you know I did go to that coffee shop and I rewatched the Broncos Raiders game and weirdly everyone everyone left everyone cleared out of the coffee shop because the game was so awful um I I think Patrick Graham had a really good game plan against Bo Nix in that first game contained him in the pocket didn't let him rush he didn't have a single scramble I think his five attempts it was kneel downs and sneaks in that game um it was taking away the first read Bo Nix was 9 of 20 for 113 yards and two picks when he held the ball for over two and a half seconds. It was a lot of basically daring Bo Nix to be a quarterback.
43:53Go through your progressions, work out of the pocket. That's not what Sean Payton wants Bo Nix to do. It's not what Bo Nix wants Bo Nix to do. But the Raiders showed that game plan. And so you would figure if you're going to talk about a guy who's good at adjusting, a guy who's good at coming up with stuff to counter what you want to do on defense with a week to watch that game and to look back i would imagine sean payton will be in pretty good shape in terms of what they're game planning for the raiders in this matchup so i do think it's a prove-it game uh for bo nicks and i do think that the broncos will be better on offense although a little concerned about the run game without jk dada
44:30Bill Barnwell:yeah they haven't looked as good this the raiders defensive numbers were were pretty good coming out of that game, for instance, like over the course of the season, they were slightly better than average considering their talent level was a good coaching job by Pete Carroll and Patrick Graham on that side of the ball. Since then, it hasn't looked good. There's just not much push. I think Sean Payton in much better conditions and the conditions were terrible that night. It was freezing. Like it's just gonna find too much offense for the Raiders to keep up. Gino looks looks a little shell-shocked out there.
45:03Bill Barnwell:And watching him against this Broncos team doesn't seem fair. The Broncos, like Miles Garrett, are going after an NFL record. They have a real chance here to get the NFL team sack record. And you know who's helping out every week when they face another defense and helping their sack numbers? It's Geno Smith and the Raiders. It's just like a walking seven sacks to start the game. It's tough to watch. Like, what do you like when you see this Broncos defense at their best. I mean, you didn't even mention that they didn't have Pat Sertan, I believe, in that first game between these two teams. So now you're adding the reigning defensive player of the year back to a game where it felt like the Raiders could have played for 40 quarters and maybe not gotten to 21 points, which is probably what they needed to win that game.
45:52I mean, you're hoping maybe the Chip Kelly firing changes some things. I know that there's some reports this week that they were just running the Chip Kelly offense all along, or they were running the Pete Carroll offense all along. But, I mean, they could not, in that game, reliably get to Brock Bowers. The only big catch Brock Bowers had was a play where Talanoa Hufanga tried to jump in underneath, but basically just went off his instincts. And usually those are good. Sometimes they aren't. And this was a play where they weren't. Brock Bowers could open for a big game, but he otherwise was completely locked down.
46:21They just not had the ability to get the ball to their really, not only their best receiver, but really their only receiver of any note right now. They weren't able to run the football. Ashton John did not have a good game. And I don't put that on Ashton John did. I put that on the offensive line and the fact that the Broncos have one of the best defensive lines in football. But, you know, with the Raiders, it was like, OK, you don't have the talent, but you schemed up a good game. With the Broncos, the scheme is good and they have incredible talent and they're getting back their best defensive player.
46:51So it's just hard for me to imagine this game being significantly different for the Raiders offense. I would expect a lot of third and long, a lot of sacks. I would expect Nick Benito to, you know, try to win the best mortal defensive player award behind Miles Garrett. But I just don't see a way for the Raiders to dramatically change the way they approach offense in this game.
47:13Bill Barnwell:And I was going to say the Broncos, you know, they've skated by the last three weeks winning, actually four weeks, winning four games by a combined 10 points. They have had a couple blowouts this season. They had the Bengals game that was not close. They took care of the Cowboys pretty easily. I think this is going to be another one. And yeah, like I said, everyone check out Bill's show where we decided whether the Broncos were lucky or good. They were a good discussion. Let's wrap with the Rams, who are both good and not even think they're lucky. They actually maybe should be better than nine and three.
47:47Bill Barnwell:If you think about the way their season started, that Eagles game, certainly the Panthers game last week was a certain sort of... you know, losing the turnover battle and not being able to get the ball back. I do think in this matchup against the Cardinals, the Rams are favored by seven and a half. It's Kenny Albert and Jonathan Vilma on the call that there are some things that the Cardinals can do to bother him. And like the number one thing I'm probably watching from the Rams side is like, can the pass rush be a little more consistent? Teams have done a good job passing quickly to kind of mitigate the Rams pass rush.
48:24Bill Barnwell:and they struggled to get off the field last week. I mean, of course, that's the recipe to do it, but it's a little surprising. I know they don't blitz much, but they're not in the top 10 of pressure rate this season. Considering the talent that they have, I kind of want to see their pass rush come fully alive down the stretch, and this would be an opportunity to do so against a team in Jacoby Brissett who holds the ball quite a long time. Yeah, I mean, a lot of the success the Panthers had last week was throwing under two and a half seconds. A lot of quick game, a lot of just trying to find soft spots in zones.
48:58Nine of 11, Bryce Young for 122 and two touchdowns within two and a half seconds. And the Rams were only 15th in the NFL in QBR on throws under two and a half seconds. That's usually kind of like the common delineator for quick game versus a more traditional passing attack. And so in an ideal world, you would have the ability to make those throws. If you're Jacoby Brissett, that's just not typically how this offense works. They want to be more of a heavy play action team, which is going to be holding the ball, trying to hit more shots downfield. It's going to be tougher if Marvin Harrison doesn't play in this game.
49:30He's still uncertain. The Rams have been very good against tight ends this year. I think they're second in the NFL in QBR on targets to tight ends. And so not just as simple as getting the ball to Trey McBride. I love a little bit of Greg Dortch. I would always wish they'd get a little more Greg Dortch involved in the offense. But Greg, the big thing that I think really underpinned the Panthers' offense last week was running the football. And the Cardinals' offense is 30th in the NFL this year in APA per play on design runs. That's been the biggest disappointment for this team this season, full stop.
50:01It's just they have been a very fun, very aggressive rushing attack over the past couple years, whether it was losing their offensive coordinator, losing James Conner, losing Trey Benson, not having the ability to go to three tight end sets with Tip Reimann hurt. all those things probably contributed a little bit but they just have not been a good designed run team this year and so that was hurting with kyler murray they were getting stuck in a lot of third and longs they've been a little better because kobe percent i think is better in those drop back passing spots than kyler is but against the rams that might be the roost like you know if you're just if your play action game is taken out of the game because you're trailing and because you're uh you're not running the ball effectively and you're stuck in third and long that might be what unlocks a really good game from this rams pass right yeah
50:45Bill Barnwell:Yeah, I think it's a tough match because of what you just said. Trey Benson, by the way, not at practice. Marvin Harrison, not at practice. Harrison has a heel injury. I don't think he's expected to play. Benson, it's especially concerning because he came off the activation window and now he's not practicing. For what it's worth, and I don't think it's much, in this matchup, Sean McVay, Jonathan Gannon, a lot of the same players, was still a pretty good Rams offense last year. They scored 23 total points in two games. They averaged 11 and a half points. also included, you know, maybe the high moment of the Jonathan Gannon era, putting up a 40 burger on the Rams in like a 35 point victory early last season.
51:23Bill Barnwell:And then they had a struggle fast defensive game later in the year. This this Cardinals team is good enough to make you sweat, but then lose their 20th in DVOA, which is better than you would expect from a three and nine team. They have five point three, like estimated win. That sounds right. They actually seem like a five and seven team, but I always think that really great teams coming off a loss. There is a human element. I think where there's like the plexiglass principle, they bounce back generally. And I think they'll play their best. And I think they'll do it by running the ball. People don't, I think, realize how just how great they are running the ball.
52:02Bill Barnwell:And even last week against Carolina, they are getting such good push up front for Coram and Kyron Williams. So I could see a game. this is not a fantasy show Bill but like where you got like a Bears thing going on where both Corum and Kyron Williams go over 100 yards and it's like 31 to 16 and it's just like a run fest for the Rams that's the type of game you can't lose in the division they cannot lose this game in the division or else you can actually let in San Francisco to win this division still they're 4-1 in the division San Francisco I have a question for you we'll set you up I guess with that you gotta go pick up your kid I do.
52:40Any reason to think Matthew Stafford's rough game last week? Fluke? Any reason to think it could stick around? Any reason to think that the Rams should be a little concerned at all? Or just kind of a bad game?
52:52Bill Barnwell:Not at all. Because a couple were just the type of turnovers that he makes consistently throughout his career. He's aggressive. And it happens he held the ball a little. Like, no. Because he played well the rest of the game. Like, they averaged almost eight yards per play in that game. So that's a big fat no, because to me, he's he'll have some turnovers. It's kind of been a fluky how few turnovers he's had, but he's probably my MVP right now. If I had to choose, we don't have to. Yeah. I mean, Drake Bayne, we got five in the conversation. We don't have to. We got five. We got five. Would you give Jonathan Gannon a fourth season, by the way?
53:27Yes, I would. The defense is not the problem with this team. The offense is.
53:32Bill Barnwell:I love it. Bill. Those are an OK team. You said you were going to prep. and uh you did it and we did it and so everyone uh should check out um you know who knows we've got we've got you maybe we can get uh joe and troy uh on a podcast and we could introduce you guys i will um i'll pass that up the chain we'll see we'll see if uh see if that's likely to occur i'm seeing this from our great producer here that um you know maybe uh there was going to be some combination. There's an article out here on a podcast of like, maybe Schefter could be on NFL Network. And maybe me and you are now doing it together.
54:14Bill Barnwell:We are the synergy by the way, without even being asked that they're asking for. Me, you, and Mina. We've already been doing it. I'm the Trojan horse of NFL Network, it seems like. I'm just bringing the bristiality over to Culver City, Los Angeles. You made this multi-billion dollar merger happen. Thank you, Bill. Go pick up your lovely child. And that's it for our preview show. We will be back on Thursday with an exciting recap. We've got a banger. It's Cowboys. It's Lions. That'll be up in the feed from Nick Shook and myself. And then, yes, all the weekend content with our picks and Ali. Check us out on YouTube.
54:59Bill Barnwell:And thank you to everyone who sent us their messages for being on your Spotify raft. We love you.
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57:43Bill Barnwell:Just ask Kevin Bacon. Today, business happens virtually everywhere. That's why you need Supermobile from T-Mobile. The best plan on the best network. Letting you run your business from your phone like never before. In moments of high demand, T-Mobile's network adapts to put your business connection first. Discover more at supermobile.com. Best business plan based on combination of advanced network performance, coverage layers, and security features. Best network based on analysis by Ooglu of Speedtest Intelligence Data 1H 2025. Ooglu trademarks use under license and reprinted with permission. This is Tab Ramos from Inside American Soccer.
58:13Bill Barnwell:And this summer, Topgolf is turning into the ultimate soccer destination. They've got a new soccer-themed game you can play with your group, exclusive food and drink items. They've even installed full-size soccer goals so you can try to hit golf balls right into the net. And every match all summer long will be on throughout the venue. And if you want to keep the fun going all summer, you can get the Topgolf Summer Fun Pass, which lets you play every single day and bring up to five guests every visit. Get yours now at topgolf.com slash fun pass. This is an iHeart Podcast. Guaranteed human.
From the publisher
Gregg Rosenthal and ESPN's Bill Barnwell preview the Week 14 late and primetime games starting with the Bears at the Packers followed by Eagles at Chargers on Sunday Night Football (09:55), Texans at Chiefs on Sunday Night Football (22:10), Broncos at Raiders (33:20) and Rams at Cardinals (38:35).
Note: time codes approximate.
NFL Daily YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/nflpodcasts
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