2025 Wild Card Round Preview

20:59We haven't seen Jordan Love since that game either. Since he took that, it is really weird to play three times in five weeks. that's what it is, right? It was 14 week, 14, 16, and I guess 19. So three times in six weeks, whatever it is. Spread it out, guys. Yeah, it's spread it out a little. It's just a very strange way. And it's probably annoying for the coaches to happen. But the consistent part of these two games, more than anything, Patrick, is like the Bears defense giving up yards. Like they're not getting stops. And if you even just look late in the season, that's including the Bears game, the Packers game.

21:32they've given up 438 yards per game the last three weeks, whether it's, you know, the Lions or whether it's the Packers here. And look, I'm excited. I kind of wanted Jordan Love on QB Island, but he didn't make it. He got booted off at the last second. I didn't really, I didn't stand up for it. So I own it. That was my decision. I ultimately like he wasn't there the last few weeks of the season. And Caleb Williams had some great moments, But as a Jordan Love fan and thinking about like the experience that he has and getting Zach Tom back and you mentioned the health, like it is exciting to think about him versus this defense because he has some of the most dramatic pressure, non-pressure splits in the NFL.

22:14And his splits while pressured aren't terrible. It's like they're like average. But when he's not pressured, it's him and Drake May and Matthew Stafford. Like he's right there with the two MVP guys. And so if you can protect him, which, you know, usually you can't against the Bears. you have good standing.

22:29Gregg Rosenthal:And another reason it's a great matchup, because Jordan is a chance taker. He will take these chances against the defense that relies on them. But can they do so in a way that facilitates a pass rush that's not going to have Christian Watson running free in the secondary with no CJ GJ? I think there could be a capacity for the score fest here. I like it. This is an exciting game. I'm feeling, I'm leaning Packers a little bit. I know, you know, you're a fan of love. He's coming off the concussion. So that's a little tricky that, you know, he isn't in the flow of the offense right now, but I think it was a huge advantage for them to rest in week 18.

23:13The bears didn't. And I just think that that could benefit the bears a lot. Lafleur is according to some people, maybe coaching for his job. I don't really buy that. But what do you think he's going to look at with Dennis Allen in this defense and try to attack?

23:30Ollie Connolly:Probably all those crazy pressure totals that you've been talking about for weeks now that they just send a maniacal amount of pressure, but they don't get home with it. This only saving grace for the best pass, which I would say is their fourth quarter rate really spikes up, which in postseason games when it's tight and it's one score and we've seen them have this comeback after comeback. That is a massive difference maker when you get down the stretch. You can go find teams that have solid four-man pressure rate figures throughout the season. I think to cross the championship threshold, you have to check the fourth quarter pass rush rate, too, is how deep does the bench go?

23:59Ollie Connolly:How does the staff adjust in the fly? That is the one thing they have in their favor. But with the amount of blitzes they're sending and Jordan Love's ability against the blitz and him being a hooper, like Patrick said, he's just going to let the thing fly. And you can then get yourself in just kind of like three or four high-variance throws. Who's going to come down with that? I'm going to probably bank on Jordan Love to win that matchup. It is a fun matchup with those guys in the secondary, though, because they are big personalities, including Chauncey Gardner-Johnson. But they have frisky playing personalities, for lack of a better word, like Nashawn Wright and Tyreek Stevenson and Jalen Johnson, who's maybe not been full Jalen Johnson since the return.

24:40If they're going to win, I feel like it's going to be back to front. And maybe Kyler Gordon ends up being a huge X factor. I mean, if he's fully healthy, he's the best player in that secondary. And you could see those playmakers being a big difference in this matchup and ultimately being able to cover what the Packers and what LeFleur throws at them.

25:04Ollie Connolly:Yeah, and as much as correct, Kyler Gordon is probably the best individual blitzer in the league. So if you're looking for what can decide a one possession game, is it going to be a strip sack fumble? Is it going to be Jordan Love thinking I can go win a championship on one throw and Kyler Gordon come screaming into the backfield? if I close my eyes and think about how do the Bears win the game, that's probably more of what I picture than them just going like lockdown for two or three drives to just get off the field. I do like to think like big picture too. It would be crazy annoying if you're a Bears fan.

25:33I mean, you're going to feel good about this season anyways, but if your season ends on three straight L's and one of them is to the Green Bay Packers, it's not going to be as sweet as it felt three weeks ago when they're in the one seed. Let's actually listen to Ben Johnson kind of ask about everything that's happened and changed for this organization.

25:55Gregg Rosenthal:Just like I told those guys after the game, we're mentally prepared to play for five more weeks. And so that's our intent. How do you do that? You go out and you win the first one. And so we're going to come in today and we're going to have a great day today. Meetings, walkthrough, short week, opponent that we know. and we're going to get ready for this one. And we're going to go all out for this game. And we'll worry about the future when that time comes. But now it's not the time to look back and reflect. And I love that. I love the coaching matchup. I do love that both teams are as healthy as they've been maybe all season.

26:34The only one out of practice right now is Gardner Johnson. Ozzy Trapila, who's their left tackle, is practicing. Braxton Jones, who they could decide. He hasn't played almost all season since very early. they could decide to start him at left tackle, but Odunze, Kyler Gordon, they're all there. And that's great news. If the Packers lose, they'll be on what? Like a four-game losing streak to end the season? Four or five? There are real beliefs from smart people who are tied in that this LaFleur-Packers thing could possibly come to an end. I tend to believe that Like he's trying to get as much leverage, whether it's money or whether it's power in the organization.

27:21And maybe that's why we're hearing about these things, because it would be crazy for I mean, the crazy part of the coaching cycle is there's a chance here that like the Bills lose, that the Steelers lose and that the Packers lose. And that any one of those three head coaches who are, you know, great coaches could shake loose. And the Packers is the one that I don't believe. I feel like it's some sort of posturing. I don't know why.

27:46Gregg Rosenthal:There's the graph on coach danger and then the conversation related to coach danger and the conclusion of the contract is where those things intersect, where there's a whole lot of conversation from people to other people whose job is to provide whatever side of one conversation is being had to another person because Matt LeFleur would like to be compensated better probably than ranked 17 in terms of coach compensation, and the Green Bay Packers would probably like him to stay there. That seems to be part of it, is that maybe they're a little cheap with their coaches sometimes. There are also some whispers about, like, you know, with the new president that Gutekunst is maybe kind of elevating and LeFleur doesn't want to be reporting to Gutekunst.

28:29Oh, Palace and Tree?

28:30Ollie Connolly:Yeah, where they used to be separate. I will say this, though, Greg. It makes no sense given how good he is. I agree. Great. That's what I'm saying. 15 years covering the league, he authored the best offense I've seen in my entire time. For him to not already have like a five, seven year contract extension, to me is laughable. And I get there's some game management stuff. You can go find a dork out of Harvard to help you with the game management stuff. Do the Andy Reid. Age over the course of your career. Building an offense is really difficult. He navigated from one era, from Rodgers to Jordan Love, was instrumental in the play development.

29:03Ollie Connolly:And yet Ed Policy has come in there as the president. And it seems like he just wants to change the pack away. They spend big in free agency. They draft a wide receiver to get the fanfare on the TV show as the host in the draft. And the fact that he has said publicly that I don't like having a lame duck coach, but he won't sign the guy to a contract extension going into the final year of his deal makes me think there is a bit more smoke. And I will just point out ever so kindly that the agent of John Harbaugh, his dad, is the former president of the Green Bay Packers. And we're talking about who is this extra team who's been calling about Harbaugh 45 five minutes after he's fired and who employs a coach was sniffing around and taking a look i'll just connect some very you know disparate dots i i would have made a trade four days i know sure yeah good luck honestly i mean maybe matt lafleur would take that trade too and i'm i would think the baltimore ravens would so maybe you you get your uh yeah your best wishes the The reason I don't buy it is it just doesn't make any sense.

30:04I'm with you, Ali. That is going to be really fun. That's on Saturday night. Let's take a break and we'll wrap up the NFC with a banger. The number one slot. This is the number one draft pick is the Sunday afternoon game. And so 49ers Eagles is apparently that game this year.

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34:11And the Sienna is built for everyday life. Carpools, road trips, snacks, spills, and it even has a built-in vacuum for when things get a little too messy. Because when people are the destination, your ride is important. Learn more at toyota.com and find the vehicle that fits your people. Back on NFL Daily, big game Sunday afternoon, big playoffs ahead for the man calling the game, Tom Brady. Oh. You know, I heard I'm a big breaking news. I'm a big fan of Craig Horlbeck who I did the Ringer Fantasy Football Show. Very talented as on the mic as a producer over at the Ringer. But he's still giving Tom Brady grief about the quality of his broadcasting.

34:58I think he needs to update his take because I think Tom Brady has improved a lot and I think he's going to prove it with this playoff run.

35:05Gregg Rosenthal:Yes. I agree. Greg Rosenthal especially fresh off of the game on Saturday night. The San Francisco 49ers on the road at the Philadelphia Eagles, who are favored by four and a half points. The over-under is 44 and a half. It is a rematch of the NFC Championship game a couple of years ago. Brock Purdy tears his UCL. He's practicing throwing left-handed on the sideline. Josh Johnson finishes the game. The Philadelphia Eagles go to the Super Bowl, lose to the Chiefs, and now it's time for revenge. Kevin Burkhart, the aforementioned Tom Brady on the call. Who wins the football game correctly? I mean, I'm going Eagles.

35:41Certainly this, you know, in the middle of the week, we don't even know if Trent Williams is going to play. That's massive. He did not practice. On Wednesday, Ricky Pearsall did not either, which I think is a significant injury. Pearsall sounds less likely to play than Trent Williams, but that was one of the biggest issues with the 49ers last week against Seattle. The left side of their offensive line, now I forget who's the guard, Burford. like the two of them, it was like you hurt two positions by losing Trent Williams because you go from like a first ballot Hall of Famer to a sub, you know, below level starter at left tackle.

36:22And then the left guard spot looks worse too. And you think about that matchup against Jalen Carter and against Jalen Phillips. And it's great that they got them some rest last week. And that just, It feels like no matter how you look at this game, I just feel like it's going to take something special from Purdy. I think he's capable of doing something special. But without Trent Williams, it's going to be like another level of how special it would have to be.

36:49Ollie Connolly:Yeah, and I think not just special from Purdy, but special from Shanna. And this is one of those ones where if he wins this thing, if Williams is out and you go through Ayuk and Bosa and Purcell, you should just give him a gold jacket walking up the field and coach with it through the rest of the playoffs. because he's going to have to scheme receivers open against that secondary and washing out eligibles because he's got to try and bail out for the fact that the left side of his line is imploding on every other rep. So it just feels like too tall of a task for as poor as the Eagles offense is, it's still, I think, a slight advantage over the Niners defense.

37:21Ollie Connolly:And then it just becomes down, whether it becomes, I think, a rock fight or a track meet. If the Niners can move the ball effectively, and I think Alshanna can do anything, but this is about as tall a task as he will have had against that group with what he's having to roll out there with then i think the niners have a chance if they can get to even 28 points they maybe have a chance but i still think that's a tall order of what's going on with the injuries

37:42Gregg Rosenthal:yeah i think the only chance is to take advantage of the run game uh off tackle where they haven't been able to have that success here recently because what vic fangio and the eagles can do where cooper de jean has been deployed right around that spot 10 yards around the line of it's just off the edge of the tackles where it's like okay well what's our what's our cmc plan you have to have a cmc plan so the 49ers aren't getting four and a half yards every single time brock purdy drops back i think the eagles as well as oddly enough the seattle seahawks are the two teams best position to do that and the 49ers are having to play them in back-to-back games and then i don't think the deep the pass rush is going to be able to bother jalen hurts because i don't think they can bother any right i just it it was an unfortunate way how it had to end they obviously had to play last week.

38:26It was such a big game. I don't want to overreact to that Seahawks game, but it could be possible that this team runs out of gas at the end. That was their second straight short week against the Seahawks, and so that won't be the case this time. They'll have an extra day in theory of rest, but having to play these two physical teams in back-to-back weeks, there is a recipe of just the Eagles bodying them on defense, which I think would be scary. And it's as healthy as the Eagles defense has really been all season long. So I'm sure Vic Fangio is ready to forget about putting Kyle Shanahan with a gold jacket off the field.

39:07I don't know if Vic has already earned it in your mind, Ollie, but like, let's get some coordinators into the Hall of Fame. Vic Fangio would be close to the top of the list.

39:15Ollie Connolly:Oh yeah, my own personal shrine of coordinators I have at home, Vic has his own room. I think Vic is going to be fascinating in this game when he plays Kyle Shatton he blitzes a lot more than he traditionally does I think to wash the back out of the equation so if you just start running through how are we going to prevent the fact we've lost Trent Williams for the game if he doesn't play or if he's limited in some way if you're able to wash Christian McCaffrey out because he has to stay in to protect or they got to start messing around with we'll keep a tight tendon we'll put an extra tackle on the field and we'll chip that way it just starts becoming a nightmare who do I actually throw the ball to and then with Purdy I think he's been incredible since his return he's been a much better a playmaker, I think, than he's been at any point during his career.

39:52Ollie Connolly:He's not taking sacks in a way he hasn't done throughout most of his career. But the turnover rate and the turnover-worthy play rate has shot up in a different way. And they just have to play the cleanest of all games and hope you can just rally to the ball. And Jalen Hurts has brain fart after brain fart. And they can tackle because the Niners cannot tackle. And it is a pretty fortunate thing for them. The way the Eagles offense is designed doesn't give a lot of yak opportunities. But they have to be able to finally tackle and hope that Jalen Hurts brain farts the game away. Yeah, I did see a stat from NextGenStats, I believe, that the Eagles ran the second highest amount of hitch routes, just coming back to the ball of any team in the NGS era.

40:30It was the Justin Fields Bears, I think, were a team that was on that list as number one. Yeah, Kyle Shanahan's just, look, you're going to have to manage the game really well. And to get just big picture, I do think Brock Purdy could have a moment because he's not quite at the Herbert, Drake, May, Stafford level right now, but he's not far below it where you could see him carrying the team in a way that even he wasn't able to do a couple years ago when he nearly won the Super Bowl. We also got to wonder if playoff Jalen Hurts comes out. That's the hope for all Eagles fans. Let's actually listen to Nick Sirianni kind of talk about how this Eagles team finally got back to where they wanted to be.

41:16They got a home game. They're in the playoffs and they can try to put all the drama of the regular season behind them. I mean,

41:23Gregg Rosenthal:we were here in this spot because you want to run it back and you want to, and you want to play and compete again. That's part of the reason why you're here. I mean, that's any game I don't like I'm, if I'm playing sorry with my kids and I win, I want to play again and go again. So I don't let them win that often, but sometimes I do. But yeah, I think that's just the competitive nature and why there's a reason that the people are in this building that are in this building because they have that hunger. I mean, they might be watching that press conference. I don't know if Dad is letting them win.

41:56There is a world that, what were you going to say about the sorry?

42:00Gregg Rosenthal:Well, I was imagining because I'm sure people are going to ask Jalen Hurts, the consummate competitor, in terms of quotes, how he feels. And I thought about before the show when I heard that sound, how Jalen might react. And he would say, if our children are allowed to win, it's because we've already won. He's already he's got a he's got a quote for every situation. And, you know, he is the Jordan brand ambassador. And part of the myth, if it if it even it's not a myth, part of the story of Jalen Hurts. And I guess the Seagulls team is that Jalen Hurts has played his best, you know, in Super Bowls.

42:36Maybe not always in the wildcard round for what it's worth, but he has played his very best in the playoffs. There is a world, and I think this is the perfect matchup for them. This or the Bears would have been perfect for them. There is a world where they just show up in the playoffs and they're freaking awesome because they have awesome players. And specifically, the way that they could get back to just looking like a team that's going to go win the Super Bowl is to have some favorable matchups for the offense and get on a roll, start feeling a little more confident and realize like, oh yeah, we have AJ Brown and Devontae Smith.

43:08And this is the perfect matchup to possibly do that and put up 35 points.

43:12Gregg Rosenthal:You would need to get that cohesion where everybody's on the same page about how they're going to attack a team. The thing that I'll remember about the 2024 Eagles is that moment in the Super Bowl where they want to run the specific call. Jalen's waiting for it and Sirianni calls it. And they know that once they execute it, they're going to throw a touchdown to Devontae Smith. And they're able to do that where I think they all have the confidence that they can execute there, but I don't know if they're all currently agreeing on how they're going to go about that. And I would hope that all those hitches are just side adjustments, and it's what the defense is doing because they have that talent, but a lot of it feels very familiar, very predictable, and it's been the overall critique.

43:53Gregg Rosenthal:And not that they need to go out and try a whole bunch of stuff and do a whole bunch of stuff. I would just like to see them execute to the way that they have in the past because we know we can do it, like with this group of players can execute.

44:03Ollie Connolly:The problem they have is that I think, as Patrick alluded to, I think they are unified in what they want it to look like. It just stinks. I think it is for the hit routes, the go routes, everything is a return to the quarterback route structure. So Jalen Hurts gets the big target. I think the receivers, as we have kind of seen, are probably upset with that one, like a little bit more play design in there. But the idea of them getting hot in the playoffs, I think boils down to, well, Kevin Petulo is still there. The offensive line is nowhere near the same as when he had the two best games of his life, Jalen Hurts, in the Super Bowl.

44:32Ollie Connolly:So that to me is the major differentiating factor. And then even the defensively, I think this idea like the pass rush has come alive. Those guys run so hot and cold week to week. And yes, they have dominant one-on-one players when they turn up and play at their best, but the four man pass rush still has not been through the final five, six weeks of the season, anywhere near the level they should be with their talent. They're still behind the bears, the Titans, the Bengals in just straight four man pass rush since week 12 of the season. That is nowhere near where they should be out. If you just lined up who they have one-on-one and they could just turn it on for the playoffs defensively.

45:02Ollie Connolly:I believe that that's possible, but I just don't see some magical formula where Kevin Petula was suddenly in his bag and Jalen hurts is, is rolling around and making plays in the scramble drill. Like he's done in the super bowl. No, it's just, it's just the offensive line specifically playing better somehow. And maybe in that, and that's probably unrealistic to happen against this opponent. I don't know. Right. Lane Johnson is very questionable for this game. They sounded as a team, pretty optimistic, but it's a hamstring injury. It's a serious injury. And then Brian Baldinger, who literally works out at Lane Johnson's house on Tuesday on his show, said he kind of said he didn't think Lane Johnson was going to play, which who knows?

45:44He was at practice, for what it's worth, on Wednesday. So he's doing something at practice. But I don't think they really know if Lane Johnson's going to play, what kind of Lane Johnson it's going to be. And in my head, they improved their running game down the stretch. But then when you look at it, it was really just a Raiders game and a Commanders game and one big run at that Chargers game that I went to. Even in the Bills game, whether they're trying to win. I don't know if we're feeling much better about Saquon Barkley and the running game going into the playoffs. Probably the thing you feel better about is the linebackers for the 49ers right now are literally coming off the couch.

46:26Like Eric Kendricks is probably starting in this game. We don't know if Dee Winters is going to be available, but they lost another linebacker. And so then they signed Kaiser White, an old favorite, but like wasn't in the league until a week ago. And so if they had a good play caller, they would just circle, Ollie, those linebackers, and they would figure out how to take advantage. But I'm not really sure that Jalen Hurts is thrown into the middle of the field. I'm not really sure they can take advantage in the running game enough, but that's a pretty big weakness for San Francisco.

46:56Ollie Connolly:Yeah, and they can't tackle anyway, as I alluded to, at all three levels. So really, it should be, can we just get the ball to the middle of the field? Can we get the ball to Saquon in space and we'll just take over from there? I mean, the idea of not just throwing the ball a little crosses to the bottom to Smith and letting him take it to the house and beat two guys, that should just be the number one play in the game plan. And yet it's probably still going to be a nauseating amount of like hitches outside the numbers where all that stuff becomes quickly irrelevant. So I'm prepared to be very frustrated as the Eagles put up 30.

47:22Ollie Connolly:in some mind-numbing way at the end of this game. Yeah, I feel mostly the same, but I feel pretty good about the Eagles. I think I want to take the Eagles and the points, take them to cover.

47:32Gregg Rosenthal:Yeah. Just say, would like the 49ers defense, and I know Robert Sala's accomplished a lot considering the circumstances, just talent-wise, things leading birds there. On to Sunday at 1 p.m., Greg? That's right. All right. The Buffalo Bills, one-and-a-half point favorite, Solly over the Jacksonville Jaguars who were so hot down the stretch. The over under is 51 and a half games on CBS. It is Jim and Tony on the call. Are the Jacksonville Jaguars, Ollie being disrespected by this line?

48:07Ollie Connolly:I think they are being disrespected by the line. I do think whoever wins this game will go to the Super Bowl. That's my team comes out of this. We'll do it because it will even mean the bills have got a little bit more in them. And some of the second half production has made its way over. somehow into the first half of games. They never went on the road in the playoffs. So that'll be McDermott getting over some kind of a thing if they're able to do it. And I think this Jags team is an absolute wagon. And if you took the decals off, this would not be anywhere near a one point point point spread.

48:34Ollie Connolly:It would be six or seven or something like that. But because the Josh Allen factor, you've got to factor that in, too, obviously. But I just think the Jags are a significantly better team all the way around. I tend to agree that it's just, well, it's the Bills. Well, it's Josh Allen. And actually the line for what it's worth, I think, started even or even one for Jacksonville. And so the public is is going for Buffalo. And as you like to say, Patrick, it's just based on getting as many people to bet as possible. But I've infected Greg. But they also they don't want to be wrong, but maybe they're seeing the money's all going on Buffalo and they feel good about that.

49:11Right. And that's I like to me, the Jaguars should be, you know, at least two three point favorites. plus they're at home. You're thinking of the different ways that the Bills can win. And I think this is the toughest, one of the toughest games to pick. And I think you look a little below the hood at the numbers of the Jags defense, which has been outstanding. Like they're third overall in EPA per play allowed on defense. Their DVOA is all great. The strength of schedule has been great. For what it's worth, they're 19th against heavy personnel. So that's either with two or three tight ends on the field that I don't know if that is a sign because they're kind of a lighter weight defense that doesn't hold up as well.

49:55They're not as versatile. I'm not smart enough to know, but that is something that the Bills should be able to lean into. Dalton Kincaid was one of the few Bills who played the entire game just about last week, and he looked good. They wanted to get him back and fresh. You got Dawson Knox. You got our guy Haas, and I think they can go heavy, and I think the running game can work out of that, and certainly Josh Allen and using the tight ends and James Cook in the passing game. Ty Johnson was out of practice on Wednesday, which is interesting. But that to me is the recipe. Can the Bills offensively kind of overpower the Jaguars a little bit and make it a high-scoring game, but make it like a physical high-scoring game?

50:35Gregg Rosenthal:And that's the difficult needle to thread where you want this physical game where you've got seven tight ends on the field and Josh Allen's having all these runs and James Cook's running, but you're trying to get up to 35 points because the Jags, who have struggled to run the ball, well, what can cure a rushing attack like the 2025 Buffalo Bills rush defense? And so I think ETN's going to have a solid game on the ground. And I think the pass rush where you have, it's, I mean, I probably say it too much. People are almost as sick of hearing it as they are about Lions being the spur action. But if you have athletes at edge that are gifted enough to where Josh Allen can't completely disregard them and run away from them like they're not even there.

51:18Gregg Rosenthal:And I think between these two, where Walker has been so much better, especially against the run, where I know against heavy personnel, the numbers look a certain way, but that's the entire season and it's different context where this is a particular, one particular game that I think the Jags have at home where I may be more confident in this game being in favor of the Jags than I am in any other game. Wow. More than the Rams Chargers. I mean, Rams Panthers. they beat the Rams at that stage at that level that is amazing

51:49Ollie Connolly:I love the point Patrick made about the heavy personnel stuff because that's heavy personnel against the rest of the league and not Josh Hines Allen and Trayvon Walker as your heavy edge defenders the way the Jags fit the run they are just absolutely wild the way they can come down and just brain people from like to personnel groupings and I just have this sense of are we really going to go through a Bills game where their decision making is we the way to attack the Jags is just throw the ball on the perimeter. We don't like our perimeter targets. We're benching Keon Coleman all the time. So you will just get as heavy and condensed as possible, hand the ball off all the time against a world-class run defense.

52:21Ollie Connolly:And then what? Josh Allen has three third downs to try and play Haribo to decide the game. I just feel like we've seen them do that so consistently that I'm not willing to buy in. It'll be so different this go-around. And so if the Jags can just even hold that neutral, which is a strength of theirs, obviously run the ball as a strength of the Bills too, I do lean slightly that the Jags can stone the thing more so than the Bills can push them off the ball. And then if you get into third and long against this Jags defense, even with Josh Allen, obviously you always want to side with Josh Allen, but I would just give the edge ever so slightly to the Jags there too because of the receiving call.

52:52Yeah, Jordan Lewis is not coming back. He is out for the season. He was playing really well as a slot corner and had that injury late December. So it's Jerrion Jones. I don't know if he's a guy to pick on. He's actually, to my eye, played pretty well. And I don't think there's a lot of areas to pick on. Maybe it's some of the secondary depth. for Jacksonville. But again, that's more on the outside where Buffalo doesn't really have the horses to take advantage. Josh Allen's taken a lot of sacks this year, more than ever in his career. So it could be a big Josh Allen sacking Josh Allen moment, which he also had like five years ago.

53:30Like we actually, we went through this all before, but it could be a really big moment for kind of America to realize how special this duo is because Heinz Allen, he started off well this season, but man, he finished great. And Trayvon Walker also was outstanding down the stretch. And I think people are going to see those two guys and see Devin Lloyd and have a chance to realize like, yeah, they're, they're really special. Like I, I, the Jaguars might be the favorite in the AFC. It's, it's hard for me to pick a favorite, but I agree with you in terms of like taking the decals off the jerseys. They might be the favorites.

54:04Yeah.

54:05Ollie Connolly:I think the problem for the Jags even is they get in the vicinity of people a lot. They bother people. They don't always finish the deal and this is a game where you got to get Josh Allen on the floor if you're going to try and knock them off in a playoff game and if there's anyone who is less unbothered by just guys being around and it being a muddy pocket and having to stick one arm out and throw someone off then go make a throw it's it's obviously Josh Allen so I would like to see Heinz Allen have a an excellent game where even if there's a limited pressure rate you would almost take away like we'll take away 10 of the pressures if we can get even one or two of the sacks we just got to find a way to get off the field and not have Josh Allen extend drives yeah Sean McDermott was interesting for a few reasons in his press conference, but it's obviously a big moment.

54:43The dumbest take in sports media this week is how the Bills have no excuse now but to make the Super Bowl or win the Super Bowl now because Burrow and Lamar Jackson. I'm like, no, they're underdogs this week. What are you talking about? There is an excuse. They have a shot. I'm with Ollie. If they could get past this game, they have as good a chance as anyone to make it. And you could look at experience a couple ways. There's a lot of older players on this Bills team, but they have been together a while. I think that continuity overall is a bonus. This is McDermott on their playoff experience.

55:23The experience is, I've been here, we've been here, and so that comes with, I guess it brings some level of, call it seasoning, and you would hope poise and composure as we prepare this week and go through our process. I look at when I think about their continuity and you think about the guys that they're going to need to step up this week. It's like it's Epinesa and it's Rousseau and it's Joey Bosa who hasn't been there a while, but he's obviously a veteran player. We don't like they have some real old, old guard guys out there. Milano and Jordan Poirier. And it's those guys stepping up. But more than anything, it's this offensive line, which has been together like untouched for three seasons.

56:11I think now both guards are free agents this year. maybe not quite as good this year as previous years, but still really good. And if I'm thinking of like a route for them to win, it's like, it's a group that's been together forever. They could just be the best offensive line in the league for a month. Go play like that. It's a pretty great recipe. If you have the best offensive line in the league or one of them with Josh Allen and James cook, like that can win any football game.

56:37Gregg Rosenthal:Yes, they can absolutely do it. And it's not like to discredit the Buffalo bills and the players that they have. And again, they have that experience because they have talent. And the talent is what has them in the playoffs consistently. And that's what experience it highlights the continuation of sustained success for a lot of these guys. Even guys where the Bills have decided to part ways with them and then they realize, hey, maybe this was actually the best option for all of us. And glad to see guys like Tredavious White, where we thought it was over, back playing huge plays for this team. Although, you know, his status in this game might be really important.

57:16He is playing, but they are not deep at cornerback. And I noticed Sean McDermott say a couple interesting things in his presser this week. First of all, he noted how they only had three active cornerbacks for that Week 18 game because the team was so thin at cornerback, they didn't have the normal amount that they have on the roster, which felt like, hmm, was that like an indirect shot at the Darius Slay trade and how the team was built? and then he mentioned his absolute love for how great Jacoby Myers is, how underrated Jacoby Myers is, what a great acquisition Jacoby Myers is. And I don't know, I couldn't help putting one and one together and thinking like, we got Brandon Cooks and we got Darius Slay who retired.

57:55And meanwhile, this team has Jacoby Myers and my defense is going to have to deal with the force of nature that is second half Trevor Lawrence.

58:05Ollie Connolly:Yeah, I don't really know what this experience is that he's talking about. they're 0-5 on the road in the playoffs. What is the great experience? From what I understand, they've had heartbreaking loss after heartbreaking loss. Three of them in Arrowhead, to be fair, like at the peak of Mahomes and the others were kind of like Tyrod Taylor and early Josh Allen. But fair enough, fair enough. And heartbreaking loss after heartbreaking loss. I think the experience matters when you go to a Super Bowl and you got to deal with the two weeks off. Otherwise, it's not like the NBA where the game changes dramatically in the playoffs outside of like the blitz rates and stuff change like that ever so slightly, but it's not so discreet as it is if you're playing in the NBA or something like that.

58:44Ollie Connolly:So I'd rather just have the better roster. And I think that the answers he's giving on the second half of that, where he's talking about Jacob Myers, is indicating he thinks he doesn't have the horses the Jags are coming with.

58:54Gregg Rosenthal:It's the ability to make plays in space that has been the problem for the Buffalo Bills defense like season long. And then I'm thinking about ETN out in space, Parker Washington, where, you know, especially the offense changes so much when Britain strange comes back and then there's just so much talent and so much space for them to cover where it's like, all right, Josh, here you go. Get out there and do it. Like smash yourself into oblivion for four quarters and give us a chance to win. Do you think McDermott's got it in him? Ollie to have a great designer game plan with the, with the roster that he has that, that does confuse Liam Cohen and Trevor Lawrence.

59:33It's a great coaching matchup when the Jaguars have the ball.

59:36Ollie Connolly:It is a great coaching match, but I think he's been unbelievable this season at adjusting in game. And so if it's tight in the fourth quarter, he might have a couple of goodies up the sleeve to maybe catch Trevor Lawrence with one. I think if the Jags jump out to an early lead, he's in deep trouble. They just have terrible team speed. They have no speed at the second level, no speed at the third level. Again, talking about their experience, a lot of those experienced guys are pretty much fried at this point, frankly, and the guys who should be the peak powers just haven't been playing all that well.

1:00:01Ollie Connolly:So if it's an early lead for the Jags, I think they are in massive, massive trouble. If they can just keep it tight going into the fourth quarter, their fourth quarter pressure rate is absolutely through the roof compared to the rest league. And a lot of that is design stuff rather than just having one on one killers all the way up front. Yeah. You know who they could use in this game is Ed Oliver, who, you know, that he's sort of in that prime and they're lacking that. You gave me an idea just now in terms of that team speed that I'm going to be using on game debut later this week. Oh, and it's whatever Brian Thomas Jr.'s number is this week.

1:00:33Let's let's get out. Let's have a two for eighty nine. Brian Thomas Jr. game. And whoever that friend that you met on the golf course, that was a big fan of game day view this week. Well, we'll see me pick that game. How about Patrick Claibon getting recognized in the wild? Yeah. Oh, you work with Greg Wilson.

1:00:52Gregg Rosenthal:No, that's how the conversation. Let's take one final break and we'll wrap up. I think the best games of the week are actually in the AFC. We'll finish there a few.

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1:04:59And the Sienna is built for everyday life. Carpools, road trips, snacks, spills. And it even has a built-in vacuum for when things get a little too messy. Because when people are the destination, your ride is important. Learn more at Toyota.com and find the vehicle that fits your people. Back on NFL Daily. It's been a while since I experienced what Patrick did the other night. And that I will experience on Sunday night. Which is watch my team in the playoffs. and then immediately go into recording a show. It'll be me, you, and Nick Shook taping a recap of the Sunday games because they gave Sunday night football to Chargers Patriots.

1:05:50This is such a... The AFC is... I love the AFC matchups, but these last two, Bills, Jags, and Chargers Patriots are my favorite games of the week.

1:05:58Gregg Rosenthal:And hopefully, Greg, a better result for you, perhaps. Although I know maybe a little health divided situation with the with the folks here in la or that i mean i'll i'll be happy i'll be happy for justin herbert to get to get a big time win and watch them go on their journey and my allegiance will change if they win that immediate jersey swap as we discuss the los angeles chargers yes on the road at the new england patriot two or three and a half point favorites the over under is 46 and a half it is mike tariko and chris collinsworth who called a heck of a game uh last week in that matchup between the Ravens and the Steelers, a potential good one here, Greg, where you wonder if the matchup of a defense that hasn't really shown a lot of ability to affect the quarterback against the offensive line and a team that have allowed their quarterback to be very affected here in 2025.

1:06:50Yeah. Dardy on that side of the ball. I'm really curious if Jamari Sawyer is playing. Not a big name, but he stabilized their left tackle position at just a normal rate. And he's like their third left tackle. But once you got down to fourth and fifth, it's just a total disaster. And the Patriots are getting healthy at the right time. They had Milton Williams back last week. It sounds like they will get Harold Landry back this week. They also could get Tonga back, who has been a good run stopper and just like pocket pusher in the middle of their defensive line. It makes a huge difference. Like Harold Landry is another injury that kind of has gotten slept on.

1:07:30And so if you can get after Justin Herbert, like that's great. But these two quarterbacks have kind of proven all year that they can get it done when they're under pressure. And if I'm the Chargers, like this was the matchup I wanted because it's the pass rush I'm least afraid of, even if everyone is healthy. And like, I think I think Justin Herbert and the passing game and the Chargers offense is just going to be fine. I do not think this is like a difference making Patriots defense.

1:08:00Ollie Connolly:Now, my only fear is that Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman pull up like the run game film of the Patriots over the past 10 weeks of the season, which has just been hemorrhaging stuff against the run. Decide that is the path forward. We'll get Justin to third and manageable and it ends up being third and long and just becomes a nightmare evening where he's running for his life. I think you just have to go in and say, we're putting the ball in Justin's hands like 35, 40 times. We're either going to knock this team off on the road or not. And we're going to go down with Justin just trying to dice them up.

1:08:26Ollie Connolly:And I think that's that's the best opportunity to spread the Patriots out as much as possible. We'll try and pick on the corners who haven't played as well to me as the front has played. And then that would be the path they would have to success. Yeah. It's been a strange Christian Gonzalez season. I got some like pushback from people online. They're like, Oh, you don't have your guy on all pro. And it was like, I didn't even really think about it. And like, not that he's been bad, but they, I just don't think he's been at the level that he's been at in previous years. And this, like this chargers team has explosive players.

1:08:57Like quick. I can absolutely see in my mind's eye, Quinton Johnson just dusting Carlton Davis for a long touchdown. And Herbert making really great third down plays and picking on them over the middle of the field, whether it's the Gadsden or Allen or McConkie. And it just being kind of a great showcase for like two of the best couple quarterbacks in the entire NFL. I was really surprised to hear last week, Greg Olson calling the game and he was just so complimentary of what a great defense the Patriots are. And I do think they're playing better now, maybe, overall, but they're not a great defense to me.

1:09:33I think they have a lot of holes.

1:09:34Gregg Rosenthal:And in terms of the holes, how they can patch those up, because it was interesting watching and looking back at Mike Vrabel's availability from today. We're having this conversation on Wednesday, and there was discussion about the problems that Greg Roman has created for him in the past, when a lot of those problems were really just Lamar Jackson. In terms of, I don't know that the scheme that Greg Roman is cooking up is presenting Mike Vrabel with a whole bunch of things that's going to keep them up. It's the players. And the way that at times the offense can put Justin Herbert in a position to be successful.

1:10:08Gregg Rosenthal:A lot of that's just 10 being 10. But the opportunity for him, I think, to not play last week is the reason that you can have some cause for positivity and belief they can go in here and pull off this upset. Because it's a lot like the... the game that the Buffalo Bills are going to have. It's the quarterback, despite all of the circumstances against them, going up against another team that is more on the same page on offense, is more consistent on offense. They're able to do what they do, which is get buckets consistently in making explosive plays. That's been a thing all season, and I don't care what the schedule says.

1:10:49Gregg Rosenthal:If it's that easy, everybody would do it.

1:10:52Ollie Connolly:right the one thing i will say on the on the um the lamar jackson point is mike vrabel's head does melt down against scrambling quarterbacks i think it like offends his sensibilities seeing a guy just like run around the arc and take off for eight yards he starts adding more and more bodies to the line of scrimmage then he starts getting ripped over the head and you can just see his brain kind of frazzled mid-game and so i think that if the charges really commit to this they just didn't feel just in her but scrambling designed run game let's get Brable in his own head and then we'll open up those one-on-one shots you mentioned to Quinton Johnson and Gadsden and McConkie down the field I think that is the best path forward for them in this game because Rabel really does have a tendency to just get frustrated by scrambling quarterbacks in I think about how this season started Justin Herbert week one scrambling the the little sassy slides that he had and I think of the game I was at against confidence yeah against the Eagles and so many other games where his scrambles have made the difference.

1:11:49And these are two of the best, if not the best, scrambling quarterbacks in the league. They are both near the very top in terms of scrambling rushing yards and scrambling passing yards. So they can beat you in structure and they can beat you out of structure. I just think that the structure overall that Drake may has in terms of the offensive system is, is superior. And that side of the ball is awesome. Josh McDaniels versus Jesse Minner is great. And kind of the obvious point here is like the Patriots are an explosives led offense and they're going against a team that prevents explosives as good as anyone in the league.

1:12:28You got to think, Ollie, that Josh McDaniels is looking at this Chargers defense. Like they can be patient. They have shown they can. But especially using their running backs and tight ends, I think against the Chargers to try to create explosives that way might be the way that the McDaniels tries to zero in in this game.

1:12:48Ollie Connolly:Yeah, unbelievable matchup. I'm probably going to have to go for a cold shower between quarters to calm myself down with these guys. That is the thing to me is who is going to break the hand first? Who will gamble first? I think that Josh McDaniels will be so willing to be patient and ride it out. And if he just has to run the ball constantly and take the check downs underneath and then maybe if the game is tight in the fourth quarter, let Drake May go and rip one down the field. I think he'll be so willing to just say this is totally fine with us. We'll take five, six yards to clip and just sustain drives.

1:13:17Ollie Connolly:And Jesse Minter may have to say, I'm going to have to roll the dice here and send the house to try and get some pressure on Drake May.

1:13:22Gregg Rosenthal:I think the only way that happens is if there are no clear out routes. I think if the players are there, Drake May is wired specifically to play football in this particular way where I think they can call it short all he wants. You got to play the way that the guys play. I think that would definitely,

1:13:41Ollie Connolly:and I will say that Minta doesn't change much week to week either. And you saw in the, even in the Texans game, a team who lives in, like we sustain drives. We can't really do an awful lot else. And we can't even sustain drives that well, frankly, but they're able to hit a couple of huge explosive touchdown throws because they know exactly what the defense is going to be in based on the formation. So McDonald's will have a Rolodex dating back 20 years now against the specific look we know. And they'll probably, I would hope say to Drake during the week, these, the three or four, we're going to get too early.

1:14:07Ollie Connolly:Can you just kind of stay on schedule during the early stuff? I'll go create some magic if you need to. Trust me, we'll get you four three-point efforts when you want them. So I think you've got to build that in a little bit more and say, hey, it's the first playoff game. Their offense isn't very good. Let's just stay in the game and not try and throw the thing away early. And, you know, Minters, I feel like, been a little more creative since their bye week in general. Just throwing some fun stuff out there. Usually not against great, you know, offenses like this. Although they had a really nice game against the Cowboys.

1:14:35That, to me, was kind of the prove-it game for them. Since week 10, they are second in the league in terms of EPA per play on defense. You have Khalil Mack, you have Tule, you have Owe, and you're going up against Will Campbell and Morgan Moses in this offensive line and trying to get pressure on Drake May. And I really do think it's just him. You say he's going to go try to get buckets, but you don't get that 72 % or 74 % completion percentage by only going for deep. No, no, not. he's willing to go for it. And I think the difference maybe right now in terms of my confidence with them, that's different is I'm way more confident in their running game today.

1:15:17Then I was at really any point in the season. Ramondre Stevenson just had like three of the best, you know, weeks of his life and Travion Henderson is, is making these big plays. And I think overall the Patriots have like quietly kind of evolved into the team that their record says they are. where it's like they were a little lucky early, but I think they've actually just been a better team, especially running the ball late. And I think they'll be able to be patient against a Chargers team that likes to, you know, have not as many guys up front, you know, stopping the run.

1:15:48Gregg Rosenthal:Yeah. And there's a many different routes to, to explosives and the Patriots seem to acquire them in every different aspect where they can, where I just, it's a good football team, Greg. Don't worry. No, I mean, well, I, I, I should be worried this Chargers team. I do give something to the fact that it's Harbaugh year two. It's Herbert year whatever it is for him. That I think that is an advantage. And it is a very, like, they have some flaws, but it's a very talented Chargers team. There's not a team in the AFC field that I don't think the Chargers could beat. Jacksonville might be tough. That was a tough matchup for the first time.

1:16:28But let's say the Chargers win this game. Like, I don't think the Broncos want to see the Chargers next week. It is not a normal 12 seed. It's a 12-win team.

1:16:37Ollie Connolly:It is, but they also have comfortably the worst position group there. Maybe one of the most important position groups in the entire field. And I think the Broncos would be giddy right now if you told them that was who they got to face. Really? They get to go there on the biggest weakness in football. Now, Justin Herbert would terrify anyone. I mean, they couldn't score a touchdown off the Chargers backups. I got my guy Marlo Wax looking like Fred Warner out there. They didn't have a freaking touchdown last week. They had 12 points on offense. Come on. I understand that. That's a Bo Nix issue. But is that going to be any better against other groups?

1:17:09Ollie Connolly:I'm not so sure. I love Jesse Minter. I think every single team in the league looking for a head coach right now, the first call should be to Jesse Minter. But still, there's the offensive side of the ball, and it's so just reliant on, can Justin Herbert go hero mode and cover up all of our failings? There are some design failings, there's some personnel failings. Can he make us whole 5, 6, 7, 12 plays a game in a postseason against great defenses? Now, this is not a great Patriots defense, but they have significantly more difference makers up from than what the Chargers will be able to put up to try and stop them.

1:17:38I am going to pick the Patriots in this game, but I might do the cowardly thing on our show where we pick the scores and do what's called thread in the needle so that the Chargers, you know, they're closer than three and a half. But the Patriots win. That's kind of where I'm landing.

1:17:52Gregg Rosenthal:It's not there's nothing cowardly about that. It's like splitting the difference. Choosing to evaluate relative to Vegas' expectations, which were generally generated in order to make the most money that they possibly can. The final game of the weekend. How about the Steelers being home underdogs? I feel like they're setting a trap for us. You think a trap? Well, I mean, the whole Tomlin thing, I usually think these historical records are completely meaningless, but something about them winning 23 straight, uh, home Monday night football game spooks me a little bit in the Mike Tomlin of it all.

1:18:30Gregg Rosenthal:Well, we'll see if, uh, the Houston Texans, a three point favorite can be ghost busters to Greg spookiness at the Pittsburgh Steelers. The over under is 39 and a half. Yes, it is on Monday night football. So Joe and Troy and Lisa Salters, the entire, uh, gang on the worldwide leader there for a great opportunity, Ali, for Aaron Rogers to show, that despite what everybody has seen in 2025, he's going to hang in there and attack a really good pass rush. How do you see it go?

1:19:04Ollie Connolly:I see it going him on his back fairly consistently. High fives all around. Will Anderson and Danil Hunter and everyone. I do think the best thing going for them is Amrush's brain and quick decision-making and facing a defense. You know exactly what you're going to see. They play the same stuff down after down over and over again. And so having a full week to be able to game plan against that, I think maybe gives them a slight added advantage. Having DK back is obviously instrumental. The on-off field numbers with DK in the lineup versus him off the lineup are as wild as you'll ever see with any individual players.

1:19:34Ollie Connolly:So there is a path there, I believe. I just think the Steelers' defense is not the level it should be taking advantage of how poor the Texans' offense is being consistent. I think they have a... I agree. It's, by statistics, the worst Tomlin defense that's ever made it to the playoffs, which is crazy to think about. But when you think about the other side of the ball, how we started, I do love listening to that beginning of every Mike Tomlin press conference where he just talks about the opposition for 15 straight minutes trying to just kill the clock. And he did talk about our favorite duo, Will Anderson and Daniil Hunter.

1:20:15Gregg Rosenthal:Will Anderson and Hunter are simply the most dynamic edge rush tandem them in the National Football League in 2025. They got 27 sacks between them. I think it's 12 for Anderson, 15 for Hunter. They're a formidable group. You can talk about the things that you need to do schematically to minimize them and all of that. It's nothing that they haven't seen. We better stay out of a bunch of one-dimensional passing circumstances, because if we're in those circumstances, we're going to be in trouble. Wow. Shots fired to T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith, I guess there I would include Nick Herbig in that mix but they only played him 13 snaps last week with TJ Watt coming off a busted lung like some of the decision making there kills me he just like Aaron Rodgers looks like he's playing a lot better and then when you sort and I know they're season long numbers and stuff but like when you sort he's still second to last for the season in success rate ahead of only Cam Ward and it's and I think well is that just because you know when he's pressured.

1:21:16It's just at the bottom. It's like, no, when he's not pressured, it's not that good either. It's still not very good. And yet they've won four or five games. These are two hot teams. They've won four or five games and they haven't all been easy opponents. And the Texans have won nine straight. I think Aaron Rodgers has actually earned a small benefit of the doubt that he might just pull something out in this game because he has been better down the stretch.

1:21:42Gregg Rosenthal:Yeah. I mean, he won that game which is essentially a playoff game with Adam Thielen and Scotty Miller and Calvin Austin. And needing touchdowns multiple times in the fourth quarter to make it happen. Yeah, and you know, all the lack of ability of the Ravens to generate a pass rush, well, this, but even then, like we saw the ability to kind of constrict her down the field, six, five-yard completions over and over again, keeping the other team's offense off the field, where I don't think that's as much of a priority. I know Houston's been better as the season goes on here. but it's really about surviving and sustaining drives and being able to get those two or three plays.

1:22:19Gregg Rosenthal:And Aaron Rodgers can definitely do that, not to demean Aaron Rodgers. It's just when they're not able to do that, what does it look like? And I think it could go left rapidly. Yeah, it's going to need to be a big Jalen Warren and team MVP Kenny Gainwell type of game.

1:22:34Ollie Connolly:It is. I still think it will come down to Rodgers at this stage of his career. He's getting rid of the ball so much quicker than everyone else in a playoff game, which doesn't look like it's going to be, but could be his last game in the NFL. is he willing to stand in and just get absolutely rocked three times to make big time throws i think he actually might for a playoff game okay he may do i'm not so sure if he does then i think the steelers do have a chance um i just don't know if this texans offense can put together enough sustained drives and can convert in the red zone they're so poor in the red zone so predictable in the red zone the the game will i think be open in there for the steelers and then it's just as i said whether rogers was willing to stand and he's not gonna be able to move and create he's done it sparingly all season.

1:23:14Ollie Connolly:So is he willing to take one giant shot to the ribs to rip a throw down the field? And I think with a playoff game, legacy stuff on the line, he might be willing to do it. It's a fair thought that, you know, a guy like Aaron Rodgers, who is clearly trying not to get hit, the comp to him was always Tom Brady. And in those like 40 plus, especially 42 plus playoff runs Brady had in Tampa or at the end of New England, he was a little more willing to take a hit at the very end of the season when it's like when it mattered more and when you can see the finish line. I do think the best hope for the Steelers to win and this season hasn't been a great reason to believe it could happen, but looking at the names on the jerseys and their individual talent is just that this Steelers defense balls out that Cam Hayward is his absolute best and Derek Harmon is his absolute best and TJ Watt and Highsmith has been awesome lately.

1:24:07I definitely have concerns about the secondary, but you think of that group and Herbig going up against this Texans offensive line, which is better, but is certainly not great by any means. And just thinking that they could have a couple tip passes and a couple negative plays in terms of sacks and that they dominate against a Texans offense, which is better, but still below average by basically any measurement. Like they've improved to average, which they're getting pats on the back to, but it's like they're not good.

1:24:38Gregg Rosenthal:Well, I think there is a risk for the Steelers team to be too aggressive and wind up in a situation like last week where they're, you know, instead of looking at, say, Flowers running away from them, they're looking at Nico Collins or Higgins in, you know, any number of ways where if they do try to get too active around the line of scrimmage and have guys flying at C.J. Stroud, where we've seen them blow coverages all season long. Like, it's just been a circumstance the Steelers have not been able to prevent, And I think sometimes that is trying to make plays. You know, we have Mike Tomlin with his Super Bowl championship that comes on a James Harrison play that James Harrison probably should have never made.

1:25:15Gregg Rosenthal:Right. Like they take these chances because they have success with them. But when it goes wrong, it goes wrong. Unfortunately for them, Tyra Lute misses the kick and they don't have to worry about.

1:25:27Ollie Connolly:Yeah, the Steelers obviously have the personnel and the individual players who could just take over the game. and it's like three drives are just detonated on arrival by Haywood or Watt or Herbig or Heiseth taking over. But the stat I look at to evaluate defensive staff more than any of the stat is third down and three to six. That is a coaching stat. The Steelers are 32nd in the league in e-paper play in those situations. And it is a chasm between them and 31st. And think about the Cowboys and the Bengals and the laughable defenses we have in the league. It is embarrassingly bad how they've been in those situations.

1:25:59Ollie Connolly:And that is basically where the Texans live. is like third and three to six. And usually we're not staying on the field. And so for the Steelers to be in that spot, and I think if you look at some of that run game stuff over the past few weeks, the numbers have trickled up. But if you watch them play, it is really just like a crazy one-off play over and over again from either Highsmith or Haywood. I just don't know if that can sustain throughout a playoff run, even throughout a playoff game. So I lean slightly here towards the text. Yeah, I do as well. It is funny to think about the history of Tomlin because even the, you know, you think about the Super Bowls, You know, one, he gave up 30 points to Aaron Rodgers.

1:26:33Maybe that's why, you know, all these years later, he's always wanted to have him. And the other one, he gave up two fourth quarter touchdowns in over 400 yards to Kurt Warner. Like their defense tried to gag that game away, but San Antonio Holmes, maybe the greatest catch in NFL history, saved him. Some of the numbers with Tomlin are crazy. I'm going to give you guys an open-ended trivia here. Let's see who can win. You might have like a slight delay, so that's a disadvantage for you, Ollie. Mike Tomlin right now has the third longest tenure of any coach without a playoff win. I was at the game that started this losing streak, which was the 2016 AFC championship.

1:27:13Can you name the other two coaches with longer droughts without a playoff win? Don Shula? Nope.

1:27:25I mean, And one I thought was going to be really obvious because it's just, uh, it's sort of related here. Jason Garrett. No, nope. Um, I, I thought you got Kennedy Titans head coach, Jason. I mean, one, one was, uh, in the division here with the Steelers. I thought you guys would have had, had this John Hopper. No, no, it was, uh, Marvin Lewis, Marvin Lewis, Marvin Lewis. And, um, and, uh, Jim Mora with, with the Colts, you know, he had, he had that long run, but he could never get a playoff win before they finally great. So that's a long time. It could be, who knows, if the 23 straight winning streak thing ends and it's your seventh straight playoff loss.

1:28:10I don't know if, speaking of streaks ending, this is the first time the Texans have ever not played in West of Us. I didn't realize that on the first weekend. They have played in the Saturday afternoon slot eight straight times. So this just might feel uncomfortable to them. and they're 6-2 in those games. Maybe it's DK Metcalf. My last question for you, Ali. Is there any concern about your beloved Texans defense? Over the last month, going to throw a couple numbers at you, 12th in EPA per play allowed, 8th in success rate allowed. I know that includes some of that second half backups in against the Colts, but overall not quite as dominant the last month of the season.

1:28:56And what are you kind of looking for with that DK matchup against those great cornerbacks?

1:29:01Ollie Connolly:Yeah, I think some of that too, with the injuries of some of the guys in the secondary playing some games and then kind of back and forth who is available at linebacker too. So if they are all fully healthy, I think they should be okay. Cause they are, it's like the most predictable defense in the league against the most predictable offense in the league. And one has superior talent to the other one. I do think that level of predictability, although it is fun to see a team body up and say this is what we do and we're better than everyone in football i do think that will catch you out towards the end of the season when you just put that much film down against the people there are degrees of like okay this guy is not quite this good and this elite of a player at this one specific thing let's target him in that fashion so that could be something particularly if rogers is running the game himself at the line of scrimmage i'll be into that more than just like arthur smith's game plan so that would maybe be the thing can they find a way to just get one or two explosives to dk that really matter that converted to touchdowns, either big shot that converts in the red zone or finding him for a touchdown itself.

1:29:51Ollie Connolly:But even then, I just think there's so much more overwhelming talent for the Texans defense than what the Steelers are rolling with.

1:29:57Gregg Rosenthal:They have, especially late in games, had some trouble making tackles. I know it's a very good defense that they can get into position, but you go all the way back to the Buccaneers game on that final drop for both Bucky Irving and Baker Mayfield making plays in space and a Steelers offense that gets 65 % of its passing yards after the catch where, you know, tackling DK and team MVP. Thank you for always pointing it out, Greg, since it's happened. Kenneth Gainwell, the best running back on the Pittsburgh Steelers. Yeah. Forever. I'm going to mention 2025 team MVP, Kenneth Gainwell for a team that went to the playoffs and won 10 games.

1:30:34Last thing here, the kicker matchup. I mean, Boswell's not, he's not Chris Boswell anymore. And you got my favorite kicker in the league, Kaimi Fairbairn. And so that could be where it turned.

1:30:45Gregg Rosenthal:My apologies to the Steelers for putting the onus on Chris Boswell calling him the best kicker of the generation. A total serial killer. And I love that we're getting Joe and Troy on this call. I think it's going to be their last call of the year. I don't think they get a divisional round game. That's unfortunate. We are going to have you two gentlemen throughout the playoffs. Of course, Patrick will be back on Sunday. Ali will be joining us next week at a time to be determined. I am really looking forward to this wild card weekend. It's no longer super wild card weekend, by the way. Did you know that?

1:31:20I didn't notice, but now I am. I think this is now multiple years. We were making fun of super wild card weekend business. They don't use it anymore. Everyone just knows. We'll be back in the feed on Friday. Cynthia and I with our picks against the spread. I'm coming off a 3-0 week. We'll see you then.

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