2026 AFC Win Totals Draft with Nick Wright

28:02Can we take it back? I was just saying the same thing. Like, we're going to want to cut some social from this clip. I know. You can't do any of the original teams. I'm not cutting it with what's right with Nick Wright. So, Eric, behind the glass, do us a favor. There, we're back to NFL Daily. Thank you. All right. So, is it my go? Yeah. And this show is, like, I'm not, I try to do things unemotionally. I am a Rogers hater. I don't believe in him, and I still went with him over. You're up. Wow. You said that, and you didn't disclose your back status. What a hypocrite. Unbelievable. I am going under nine and a half wins for the six-time defending offseason AFC West champion Los Angeles Chargers.

28:51Oh, let's go. I love that. All right. We're on the opposite sides now. From the studio that brought you, it's Brandon Staley's fault. And then the sequel of, you know what? This defense might be a little overrated. And then the trilogy of, gosh darn it, Joe Walt's actually the league's most valuable player. Get ready. for part four titled who can win without be oddish. What? And so I am, I'm looking in to the crystal ball of excuses. And you know what we're about to hear? Yeah. Can we get him a number one receiver? Quentin Johnston. Why are they still trotting him out there? Lad McConkie's nice.

29:47He's a slot receiver today. Hey, Jim Harbaugh explained how they're going to play the hot hand guard. That would concern me. Did you see that quote, Greg? I did. You know, the former dynastic Patriots used to do the same thing at the beginning of the season if I wanted to spin it positively. So I look at the Chargers roster and I say, I don't love their skill position, guys. I have major questions about the interior of their offensive line. You have been the only person covering the at least somewhat concern about Rashawn Slater's return. Like, you've done a good job on that part of it. I think the defense is fine, but every year we talk about midway through a season, we're like, man, what happened to that team?

30:39It's like, oh, they lost their coordinator. Well, they lost one of the best coordinators, the guy we think is going to help Baltimore, and they're in a tough division, and their strength of schedule games, Denver won the division. Their strength of schedule games are Jags, Steelers, and what's the other one? The I, sorry, Panthers. The Chargers came in second in the division. Their strength of schedule games, instead of the Steelers, they get the Ravens. Instead of the Jags, they get the Texans. And instead of the Panthers, they get the Bucs. So they just have a far more difficult schedule. And the way that schedule plays out is weeks, I think it's three through ten, this is the Chargers run.

31:23At Buffalo, at Seattle, home for Denver, at the Chiefs, at the Rams, home for the Texans, at the Ravens. Good luck. I think that they win eight. I don't know if I have them eight and nine or nine and eight. And we are, you know, I don't know who's going to be blamed. I know it won't be Justin Herbert because he can throw the ball over the mountain, but I just don't think this is a part. Do you think Herbert played poorly last year in the regular season, which is all that these windpills are judging? No, no, no. I thought in the regular season, Herbert played really well. I think that in a more just universe, are you a Marvel fan?

32:05I'm not really a Marvel. I don't know a ton about that stuff. Maybe Walker does. But, you know, there's a multiverse theory where there's a bunch of different, you know, versions of the universe. In the multiverse where the NFL has the English Premier League rules, where there is no postseason, it's just regular season. Justin Herbert's the guy so many of our colleagues think he is. But you're right. This isn't a playoff show. I mean, I think he is. I think he's that guy. If you didn't know, you know, you lose your football hipster cred if you don't believe Justin Herbert. And CJ Stroud is better than you think he is.

32:39I'm going the other side over, by the way. I don't care about you thinking they're off the board. They were one of my last picks. They probably would have been my last, but just to make it interesting, I'm going to go over. What were you going to ask me? Oh, I have two questions because I also had a Travis H. A.N. question. But first on the Chargers, because I know there's a regular season show. I know that. I just have a question for you since you're one of the Herbert guys. Let's say they win 11 games again, and he's really good again. Is this the year where if this year in the first playoff game, if it's three in a row, if he is, if he has, if we have a three-year sample of the three worst games he has played of the 54, if the dead last, second last, and third last are the playoff games, are we then allowed to say, you know what, maybe there's something up with this?

33:40I will accept that. And there is absolutely something up with it. Like he's gotten tight in the playoffs. I think that is a thing. He was not thinking clearly. It was not all about the offensive line. But to me, it doesn't erase what I see in the regular season. All your points on the schedule are really strong. They play road games against the Seahawks, the Rams, the Ravens, and the Bills. You could argue that, and the ones in the division with the Broncos and the Chiefs. You could argue those are among the hardest possible games in the NFL this year. It's a brutal schedule. So just to be clear, that will be the excuse.

34:16That will be what the studio puts up first. I'm going to schedule, not Beattish. Beattish doesn't make sense. I do believe in McDaniels, though. I do think Hakeem Mesidor is like a sneaky defensive rookie of the year. I do think they're greater than the sum of their parts. They do get the tack on the defense. Like they're just well coached. I'm hoping you're right. That mentor leaving doesn't kill him. And then I just look at Harbaugh, like they have won 11 games the last two years. They found a way in, in five of his six years as an NFL head coach, he's won 11 games. That's like a big number.

34:44That's not, it's not sneaking over the number. So I, that's in year three of this kind of operation. I just, I just think all of these AFC West teams are really good. I I'm relatively high on your chiefs too. And it's hard for me to not see them all winning double digit games, even if though mathematically, that's going to be tough to do. I mean, hell, the NFC West last year had three teams win 12. So it's certainly, you know what I mean? Can't happen. All right. Before I do my next over or my next pick, I should say, I want to give you a compliment. And this is something I have found I struggle with sometimes.

35:21So former Jags running back now, Saints running back, Travis Achan, who forever we thought was Travis Etienne. He was called Etienne or Etienne. And then he, in a very lightly watched press conference, told America, no, my name is Achan, as in like Devin Achan. You have respected the man, his family, and his actual name and called him the right name. I find myself struggling with it, not because I don't know it. but because there are certain improperly pronounced names that America is so convinced is the proper pronunciation that I fear if I start calling him on TV, Travis H. And the audience is going to be like this idiot.

36:15He thinks it's the Dolphins guy. He's confused, but you don't care. You're like, you know what? Right is right. And so I give you credit. maybe that just speaks to the level of confidence we have in our respective audiences you know what maybe that's it um all right i went with like hgn for a little while i didn't hear that it was just hgn i was like oh thanks that that actually takes the pressure off that it's just well maybe i could i was trying to do something no no you're right he i heard him in a subsequent interview on on it network be like no it's just hgn just like devin i was like just like devin it's like okay cool um all right i've waited long enough can city chiefs over 10 and a half yeah if i if i had to pick them that that is where i'd go to but i did i would not have taken them in my top uh draft so okay make the case i mean this is you know you're playing to type here going anti-chargers pro chiefs back to back but i'll allow that's fine uh you're right i'm i'm i am playing to type in that regard uh I here's the argument for it now you know what let me say my biggest concern about the Chiefs I think the biggest misnomer about the Chiefs going into the draft was the ever that they were going to go all in on the offensive line the the Chiefs offensive line last year was awful but it was awful because their left tackle missed nine games they were on their fourth string right tackle and their interior offensive line.

37:41I think Trey Smith missed a quarter of the season with the chiefs have a first round picket, left tackle, a second round picket, left guard, the best center in the league, one of the highest paid right guards in the league. And we'll see it right tackle. Like that is a question, but very few teams have five great offensive linemen. I mean, they're, they're not happy at right tackle. They, they, they think no problem. No, that's what I'm saying. I agree. No, no, no. That's what I'm saying. They have, yeah. question mark is maybe being kind but my point is four of their five offensive line spots they feel really good about with an asterisk of I don't know what the hell is going on with Josh Simmons and they don't have like he just has to be available in there if he is this team's going to be excellent they have not had a legitimate running threat since the first 12 games of Mahomes career with Kareem Hunt.

38:35Now Pacheco was nice as a rookie, but it was more like, hey, look at this seventh round pick. That is a legitimate NFL running back, but not someone you had to account for. One of the reasons the offense died last year was because the teams, no matter what look we were in, no matter what formation, they're like, you're not running. And if you are, we don't care. and that clouded everything for Patrick so that will be better with Kenneth Walker I think that last season they had the worst pass rush they've had in Mahomes's career they spent three they're the sixth pick the 29th pick and the 40th pick on things that should help that Mansoor Delane everyone's number one corner in the draft Peter Woods who was by some of the mock draft folks a year before this year's draft was considered a top five pick potentially and then he kind of of took the year off of Clemson and this R Mason Thomas kid who's been awesome at least in the preseason so they address that there the secondary is super young but aside from Herbert all of the good quarterbacks that they face are week 10 or later they face them kind of in a row they play like Josh and Stafford and Drake and I think Herbert a second time and one other really good quarterback so that's when the young defense will have had time to learn Spags's scheme kind of mature a little bit like they did in 2022 when they had a super young secondary and all they did was win the Super Bowl.

40:01So there's all of that. And then there is the fact that I think last year with Rasheed Rice suspended and Xavier Worthy injured and Kelsey's, you know, being on the downslope, with all of that at the midway point of this last season, not two years ago, not three years ago after week eight of last year the Kansas City Chiefs were the favorites to win the Super Bowl and Patrick Mahomes was the huge favorite to be league MVP it then all fell apart like Mahomes was terrible in the six games before he got hurt the Chiefs were one in five and whatever you know before he got hurt. But after eight weeks of last season, just so everybody knows, Mahomes had 21 touchdowns, four turnovers, a 103 rating, was averaging 300, I'm sorry, 297 yards per game, and was the favorite to win league MVP.

41:00He then played poorly for a month and a half. I think he'll be fine. I think the Chiefs will be fine. They are going to start the season off beating Denver, and then they will coast to 4-0 before they have their, because they're, again, I think they lose five games. I think the, you know, but their next three games are Colts, Dolphins, Raiders, and then they get the bye. And so then coming out of the bye, they get the Chargers, and then the schedule gets really hard, but I think there'll be 5-0 going into that, and then go 7-5 the rest of the way. That's 12 wins. I agree with a lot of what you said.

41:38Two things I'll pull out. Number one, Josh Simmons, as you explain it, maybe as consequential as just about any non-quarterback to who could go to the Super Bowl this year of anyone in the AFC. It really is that big a deal. And that's a tricky place to be based on his precedent in the NFL so far, which granted is only a year, but there were mysterious circumstances. It's still scary. There was a lot of talk behind. And he could be an all-pro or he could be MIA, which is a big issue. Second, I know we waver way ACLs now, but I do want to see what impact that has on Patrick Mahomes because what I don't want and what I don't think will happen, I mentioned he's one of the two people I'm considering to write down as my preseason MVP, him or Lamar.

42:33What I don't want to happen is another middling statistical year because what are you going to do for year four of the Patrick Mahomes is actually putting up average stats in the middle of his prime campaign and how that kind of impacts how we think of him. I don't think it's going to happen, but it would be awkward if it does happen. And at a certain point, I'd start to believe in how his career arc is going to go, like a little less. Granted, I'm playing devil's advocate because I think he's going to pull off something epic this year that reminds everyone who he is. but it's difficult. He's coming off of an ACL and he's got an old, not an old team.

43:10They're actually quite young overall, but like not an explosive enough team around. Yeah. I'm not, I'm not as worried about the career arc thing. As far as how we're going to think of this era of football. I know that our mutual friend and a guy who up until a month ago, I considered, you know, I always said that if I ever, and you know, I'd say there's, you know, it's not a 50, 50 chance, but it's better than a 25 % chance that this happens. If a team ever hires me to be the president of football operations, that Bill Barnwell would be my first call to be team general manager. That, though, changed drastically when I saw him explain how if there was quarterback of the decade for 2020s, it would easily be Josh Allen, which is what we call on our show an unacceptable opinion.

44:04It just doesn't exist. I think. I probably have Josh Allen third, to be fair. So I'm. That's why I said his unacceptable opinion. Call me up. Yeah, exactly. The. But I'm not worried about Patrick's kind of like how we're going to view his career until when he's got, you know. No one of his era has more MVPs. And the other two quarterbacks who are competing with him have been to zero Super Bowls. and he's been to five. It's not about that though. Like I, it's more, and I don't want to just get stuck on my homes, but it's more, is he going to have Dan Marino's career, which was an awesome career.

44:43He's an all time great. And the very, very best of his best was in the first five or six years. I don't want that. And so I went into last year. Wow me again, Patrick, like do some. That's kind of the point. And he started to do it. And he, and he did it. He started to do it and then it fell apart. And it fell apart. I just, I do. I think that the, as odd as it sounds like, cause he, you know, tore his ACL. I think the, the, I, I think the difference of the off season and that I think the three straight Superbowls and then last year or the year before last, pardon me of winning the way they did.

45:23I mean, they, they, they, in, in going for the three Pete, they were also the league's last undefeated team like and winning games ridiculously and then there and they made the super bowl they made this right they should not be punished for making the super bowl they went 15 and 1 when patrick played and then made the super bowl and then got their teeth kicked in um and then the next year patrick you know they the whole team fell apart i think he's going to be I think he is LeBron-esque when it comes to just different type of cat athletically. And he was like this, his recovery from this has been so far out of schedule the whole time.

46:05So I'm not worried about that. We'll see it though. Week one, Monday night football in Arrowhead against the Broncos. But I think, yeah, I think they win that game and they get to 4-0 at the bye, which makes the over the right play. you're you're you're making me um you know you're you're helping maybe push me to go in i think i just people love a narrative mahomes mvp this year mahomes mvp would be sick god it would be sick you know who uh i guess can announce i don't know are we supposed to say it publicly i i now have a vote for the first time so wow you can you can you can play play it up to me wow who they strip i think people get tired of these i actually heard that like you know it's like man they don't want the heat.

46:46They're like, we got a, we got a, we got a bunch available. So what an honor. I think campaigning for an NBA awards vote forever, but they won't give me one. So now I don't, I did. I did push for it. It was a squeaky wheel. You deserve one, bro. Let's go Brown's under five and a half. Wow. It's all about the defense. They were this bad defense. Yes. Cause they were this bad as an overall team last year with the defense that they had. and people are really chewing away the fact that Jim Schwartz is not there anymore. And I think they maxed out a very specific style of uncomplicated defense that usually had kind of a shelf life.

47:29And they replaced Jim Schwartz, who was furious and had all of his guys there with Mike Rutenberg, who's never coordinated a defense. There's good players there. I love Jared Verse. Like I think he'll actually make that trade look respectable, but the rest of the defense talent wise is just fine. Like they, they, they could be a below average defense and that exposes the quarterback situation. We know Watson's not good. Shoulder is probably not good. Like he's hoping to be like a, a bridge quarterback or high quality backup. And more than anything, how much do they really want to win? I was just a little surprised.

48:09they had a couple extra wins than the Dolphins, for instance. I know the schedule we talked about for the AFC is good, but the rest of the division schedule is not easy. So I feel like this is a three or four win team. So I think it's only because they get Titans, Raiders, Jets, Giants. Plus, they never go winless in the division. Like they always, you know, they play the, I mean, you could fact check me on that. Maybe I'm wrong, but it feels like, I think Burrow has like a 500 record against the Browns. And Monken could be a good head coach. I just think they're at cross purposes overall as an organization.

48:48And when this gets into, like, they're in the mix for Arch Manning and Dante Moore. Like, we could be seeing Taylon Green starting games. I just, I'm not into it. I'd be on the same page. You know the feeling. You make a pick in your fantasy draft and the entire room groans. because they wanted that player. Or you grab a small school rookie off waivers and you start him right before he goes off in primetime. There's no better feeling than crushing your fantasy football league. I'm JJ Zacharisen, host of the Late Round Fantasy Football Podcast. Before your draft, our players to target and players to avoid episodes tell you exactly who to circle and who to cross off.

49:28We've got data-driven analysis, historical trends, and the strategies that separate winners from the rest. And your dominance doesn't stop with the draft. All season long, we have our 15 transactions, 10 trends, sleepers, and the mailbag. Data-driven, quick-hitting episodes to help bring home that league trophy. Listen to the Late Round Fantasy Football Podcast on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

49:57The NFL never stops, and neither does its newest podcast. The NFL Report, hosted by me, Andrew Siciliano. It is your home for everything football. Williams, drifting, sprinting for space, in all kinds of trouble, put it up for next, he ends up, he's got it! For the touchdown! They've done it again! We're tapping the biggest news stories, giving you expert analysis, fantasy previews, game picks, and more. We fly around every single place. We dominate every single place. Want to hear from the league's top stars ahead of the biggest matchups? We've got you covered. They're a really good football team.

50:34We've got to have all hands on deck. Join me and an all-star cast of analysts for everything you need to know from around the league. Get new episodes of the NFL Report Monday through Friday all season long. Listen to the NFL Report podcast on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hey, everyone. I'm Mike Yam. And I'm Trevor Sykema. and together we host the NFL Fantasy Football Show. Fantasy season is upon us. Are you ready to dominate your league? Because if you aren't locked in with us on the NFL Fantasy Football Show, you're already playing from behind. Every episode, we're going to dive into the biggest fantasy headlines.

51:12Injury updates that you'll need before kickoff. The best starts and sits across every position. And matchups you can exploit to destroy your league mates. You know, we're talking sleepers, breakout stars, and the guys you cannot afford to bench. From rookies on the rise to longtime stars still at it, we cover it all. Whether you're a first-time player or a grizzled vet chasing another championship, we give you the advantage and the confidence you need to make every move count. Weekly analysis, hot takes, and unique insider knowledge all in one place. Does fantasy dominance sound appealing to you?

51:46Listen to the NFL Fantasy Football Show on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. I'm now, I think, going to stun you because you were saying I was going, you know, I was very on brand. There is no team I was more wrong about last year than this team. I picked them to finish last in the division. I not so lightly mocked their overwhelmingly arrogant, trash-talking head coach, and all they did was stick it to me all year long. I am going over nine and a half for the Denver Broncos this listen I get it they trailed in 15 games last year they somehow won 14 games last year they trailed in 15 the one score wins thing is crazy they're going to legitimately miss Jonathan Franklin Myers and they're going to miss Jonathan Cooper of Jonathan Franklin Myers they knew they weren't going to have Jonathan and Cooper they didn't I get that piece of it however they have a great offensive line they I begrudgingly must admit they have a very good coach they have one of the best home field advantages in the sport and they're another one of these that like my Jags they can go minus four wins from last year and hit the over and I don't look at the Chargers as good as other people do So that makes, at least in my eye, the schedule not quite as grueling as it is for some.

53:20I just think this is a 10-11 win team. I like the addition of Waddle if he's healthy. And I don't think they'll be as good as they were last year, and they won't be as fortunate in those one-score games. And Bo Nix does have to be better other than just late when they're trailing. but great home field, good head coach, awesome offensive line, really good defense, even if it's not quite as good as last year, that should be enough for 10 wins and back in the playoffs. So I'm over for Denver. I'm over too. And I'm over on a lot of these AFC teams and I did balance it out. I've done just writing it down both conferences.

54:00We're going to have Dave Damaschek on to do the NFC. And I went over on the Broncos. I'm with you. even the arguments against them made by myself feel intangible and searching for something. It's just like, oh, the team that you expect that has everyone back and got close, it usually doesn't work out the same the next year. But that's fine. I think they could be an 11-win wildcard team or a 10-win wildcard team, and you win, you're over. They're too good in terms of their line play on both sides of the ball to go against. I'm going to go Bills over 10.5. The schedule goes from 31st. This was a little underrated last year.

54:40It's like, yeah, the Patriots had the easiest schedule of all time. The Bills had the second easiest schedule last season. And it goes to a more challenging schedule. FDN Almanac only has them as, I think, the 10th hardest schedule. On paper, it looks harder to me. They've won 11 games six straight years. Now, this is the argument that got us wrong on the Chiefs last year. I think I took them and sniped them from you. that didn't work out but josh allen is to use your guy lebron or maybe a maybe a different um nba superstar would be but i'm just trying to think of a guy who's like a walking you know 48 50 wins like he has been a walking 11 wins yes and the biggest x factor here is jim leonard jim leonard the defensive coordinator is one of the most highly thought of rising coaches among coaches of the last seven, eight years.

55:33Like from when he was at Nebraska, like moving up, like people just believe that he's the guy and he was blocked by Vance Joseph in Denver. So he just wasn't going to get that promotion. But I think there's a chance where he comes in as a very cool hotshot defensive coordinator and raises their talent floor because the talent on defense is just eh. But ultimately, I think 12 is about where I see this team. I think they're a safer team by far than the Patriots. and I feel good about over 10 and a half. So I also would have been over. I have them at 11 and it's 10 and a half. So I wouldn't have, you know, they would have been one of my later picks, but I agree with you.

56:11I am a little, if I were a Bills fan, here is the things I'd be concerned about. Was, did Sean McDermott not get enough credit for what he got out of that defense in the regular seasons? Like that would be at least a question I would have. and i used to make that case and i'm trying to make the other side of it it started to lose a little traction the last few years but you're absolutely right but it also might be the last few years they had you know the the talent started diminishing significantly so that part you know is a concern is is it a good idea to let your quarterback pick your head coach and have him pick his buddy and have one of the offensive line coaches uh compare having him to like the cool substitute teacher yeah the uncle teacher one of the players like yeah it's like maybe i said yeah um i mean that those are those are legitimate concerns um i don't know if dj more if we weren't here's what i would say if we were stacking up every team's number one receiver how many do we how many do we list before we say dj more so i now it depends on what you think you know do you think last year was a blip it was a trend whatever it is those are all to me very legitimate concerns the counterpoint is to your point they win 10 games every year is 11 games 11 11 games every year with Josh Allen um you know despite you know the allegations that Josh Allen has no help.

57:51James Cook, you know, I think won the rushing title last year. That seems good. They have an awesome offensive line, the rushing champ last year. Josh Allen's great. And so, yeah, I mean, I do think with respect to your Pats, they are still the class of the AFC East. I expect them to win the division to regain their top their spot atop the division um and I think they're going to win 11 games so I agree with you but if the total is 10 and a half and I have them winning 11 it's not a bet I would make and I know you're obviously this is we're not gambling on NFL Daily but I uh it wouldn't have been one of my picks but I agree with you directional yeah they the issues to me would be the secondary in general in your county on Jim Leonard to make up for that I just don't know if they have enough juice up front to make up for a pretty inexperienced, slower, secondary.

58:49And then it would be the offensive line. I never, sometimes. You're worried about the offensive line? Just a little, because they've played at such a high level, and they're a good run blocking group. But sometimes you count on that offensive line, which has been steady. It's just hard to find offensive lines that are good year after year after year after year. And they've had great continuity. but if that was impacted and they definitely did not pass pro as well last year, then, then suddenly things fall apart a little, but overall I'm into it. Okay. We're, we're down to our last two picks each and we'll do them quick.

59:18We got to get Nick out of here, but I wanted to ask more of an existential question as you get older, Nick. You're a grandfather. I'm a grandfather. Yeah. Yeah. Thank you. But you are a younger man than me. I'm assuming. I know. I'm 41. Yes. You're much younger. You're much younger. I'm 47. um you're 47 yeah you look great buddy I just you know my daughter uh started in high school I'm just small that's why I thought you were no but no but you can't I can't tell you're short from sitting down you know you look great I would have thought you were 43 thank you I mean yeah wow wow four years okay no um as we get older in this and I think this was specifically to the AFC this year and you're aware of you know some years like last year our over-unders didn't do so good we only had we actually only know in our hearts that we know so much as you get older do you have any struggle as like a takesman having any less confidence that you can predict the future with such confidence when in your heart you know that none of us really know what's going to happen How do you wrestle with that?

1:00:29More confidence than ever. Every year, I'm just acquiring more and more information. But to quote one of my favorite tennis players, Naomi Osaka, the results aren't always resulting for you. Naomi has given some great interviews. She did the Iverson tribute today or yesterday. All right, so listen. This is a fair question. It's a real question. Let me answer it as a professional takes, man. And I like that. I, you know, when I was, I just did, I just traveled with my wife in Europe for two weeks. And when people would ask me what I do for a living, I would say I'm one of those guys that argues about sports on TV.

1:01:13And I respect the audience's intelligence enough to know the difference between when I go on the air and I say what I very rarely do reporting, but I occasionally do some actual reporting of stuff that I know. And I a little more often do in what I would call informed opinions about things that have happened that were, you know, where I'm not, you know, reporting things, but I have, I have, I know stuff and I'm giving informed opinion. I expect the audience to recognize if I am talking about things that have already occurred with real conviction, it is because I know what I am saying is true. I also expect the audience to know that if I am talking about things that have not yet occurred with real conviction, we're all f***ing guessing.

1:02:19Pardon me. Sorry. Okay. It's a good answer. You know what? Like it is, I am, I spend a lot of time prepping and I, you know, I do gamble. And so I, you know, I, I put my money around this, do these things, but to your point, it's things that have not yet occurred. So it, when people are like, Oh my God, you like the, my last few years, my NFC Super bowl picks have just been i picked the bears they were not last year bro no i know and then last year i picked the bucks like i picked teams that don't even make the playoffs i guess last year i picked also the chiefs they didn't make playoffs either people were like oh this guy and it's like man i i we're predicting the future is what we're doing we're just doing it as well as we can and And so, yeah, I'm not worried about it.

1:03:12I think part of it is you believe in your picks. Now, you must believe in some more than others, but you're excellent at expressing true belief in your picks. And I found, and I don't want to predict as I get older, and I'm looking at this as the offseason goes along, and I have a daily just football show, it's like I'm ultimately at some point presenting both sides and thinking about it on both sides, and especially with this AFC, which seems extremely jumbled to me, I can see both sides for everyone. And so at the end of the day, when we get to this point, I feel like I feel a little less strong than I used to about what's going to happen.

1:03:53I don't know if that makes me more. No, I think that makes you, you know, wise and mature. It would probably make you not my number one pick for like first take host, but we're doing a different job. You work to the show you're on. Then suddenly, suddenly I'm Skip Bayless circa 2005. Right, you could do it. All right, last pick. Let's just do one more pick each because that'll actually give us an odd number of teams. We'll have seven each and that way we'll each end up as a winner or a loser. I like that. By the way, I just got to tell you this, buddy. You made that exact same math error last year, the exact same one that we both, we need to pick an odd number of teams that way.

1:04:41They'll definitely be a winner or a loser, but that's not how it works. Yeah. What would need to happen is you and I would need to pick a different number of teams and then it would be percentage, but it doesn't matter. I'm going under on your new England Patriots. And barely, I think they're, you know, I think they're going to win 10 games, but I think it's more likely they win nine than they win 11. And so that's why I'm going under and because the 10 wins would be an under. So that's, you know, that's fine. I am, I do think that the schedule upgrade, the upgrade in difficulty is significant on the schedule.

1:05:24Everybody knows that last year was the easiest schedule this century in the NFL since the 99 Rams. So that is something. I am at least slightly concerned about the offensive line. So that is something. You and I both didn't love the Will Campbell pick from the moment it happened, and I haven't loved him yet as a pro. So there's that. I do – I went – going into the playoffs, my confidence level that Drake May was going to be a perennial top five quarterback over the next decade was at like – uh 8.8 out of 10 like I was like just pencil them in coming out of the playoffs it's at a 7.8 out of 10 it's not a huge hit but there was enough of a holy moly that it concerned me a bit all of that plus the Super Bowl hangover you know I just think is enough to take a team that won that you guys win 14 games down to 10, which would be an under.

1:06:32So I'll say under for the pass. Yeah, I struggle with them. I don't want to go on the record because I don't want to be rooting against them going. But I don't feel strong. That feels like the right number and 10 feels about right. Their route is really early 2010s Patriots. I'm not putting Drake May at that level, but I do think their way to get to 11 or 12 is top three offense and like situational defense with a coach that's pretty good at game management and you just win some high scoring games by making enough defensive stops and I think there is a route to doing that my biggest question is will Campbell related because he reportedly had a good camp and there is a chance that their offensive line is significantly better with Elijah Baratucker and if Campbell improves if that happens with the wide receivers like they are potentially a top three offense and then you know then it's easy to win some games so real quick before you do your final pick i can can i suggest the tiebreaker sure you and i went oppo on the chargers right we did what was that was the team that i went under and you you said you're going to use one of your picks as an over right if we tie the charge if we tie whoever gets the chargers thing right wins so that's like that's counting like two and a half times because you know it's going to give us yeah exactly and that's the whole yeah but it's good i mean that is good a little more juice for you to root against i don't listen i don't the most beleaguered misunderstood fan base in the nfl because they're they're a few but they're mighty i don't know if you see the engagement on chargers posts are great if you come after it like they they come after you and when you're there he's got a lot of fans it when you're there and it is like i went to the eagles chargers last year it it's a bummer that you know it's two-thirds eagles but the ones that are there are loud and i i respect the hell out of like that they're doing it so okay all right there you go all right what's your last pick i i'll just go by my list because you took chiefs over from me it seems mean to go raiders under but i do believe in that i think the entire afc south is a little better i'm going colts over seven and a half the schedule's easier on paper you're counting on Daniel Jones period, especially Daniel Jones coming off a torn Achilles.

1:08:45That's easily the biggest problem here, but Shane Steichen has yet to lose 10 games in a season. He's topped it three in a row. I'm intrigued what Lou Anarumo is going to do with this defense. It's a tough defense, like what he asked them to do without veteran players, at least going into the season, they're healthier. And I think could be able to have some pop-up games where Lou just gives teams a lot of problems and you were talking about MVP halfway through the season another option other than Patrick Mahomes was you know Daniel Jones they had like one of the greatest offenses in NFL history uh through week 10 it fell apart but I only need to get to eight wins here I think they're better than that so here is um listen I have them going seven and ten so I don't have a big disagreement but i i do wonder first three weeks ravens at chiefs home for texans oof i wish it doesn't oh and three start are we all of a sudden saying the words interim head coach lou anarumo i hope not and i'm glad you pointed that out because i even wrote it down that for a team I'm taking an over on, like there's a real chance they're drafting top three to five and it all blows up because like organizationally, I could see them having the messiest of seasons and them being absolutely terrible, partly because of things like that.

1:10:11Ultimately, I think their mean season is eight or nine wins. But just to be clear, there is no chance they're drafting three or five. Well, that's a good point. Because they're doing everything. gave that pick away because they went all in on sauce Gardner because they were like, Daniel Jones, you're going to do it in one of the most reckless trades in the last 10 years in the NFL, a mid season to first round pick trade when Daniel Jones was not only your quarterback, but was not signed to an extension that was. And so, yeah, they need to, they need to be good. But maybe you'll be right. But I just hate.

1:10:52I know in theory people will. Because one of the things people when the NFL makes a big deal out of schedule release. A hipster thing to say is like, guys, we've known who they're playing for years. 14 of the games. And we've known who they're all 17 for months. The order does matter. like it does for a team that is in my, at least for me, a team that you could see going either way, having the year start that tough is so much worse than you get off to a good start. You're feeling good. And those games are spread out. So that's my concern. But it's a persuasive argument. It's a persuasive argument.

1:11:37But okay. So we did everything. The only teams we did not discuss were the Raiders and the Dolphins. and that sounds right to me. Is that true? That's wild. Yeah, I would go over. I think I'm almost an auto over on three and a half wins for any team. I might even draft the Cardinals tomorrow. I don't think Damagech is listening to this show, so I might even draft the Cardinals. That's a bold play, my friend. Nick Wright. Go ahead, sorry. What's right with Nick Wright? He is an excellent podcaster, excellent on YouTube. What, you're going more off in the season? I, you know, I don't know. I, the, maybe I think so.

1:12:18I, when I was on vacation, I had fill in hosts. So I was like, wow, this is like a real business. I own the thing. So it kind of, I'm kind of incentivized to do as much as possible. I, we also though, if I may plug it just for a moment, um, next week will be our 500th episode. And we are, I think like three, like 3 ,200 people on YouTube away from being at a quarter of a million subscribers on YouTube. So if people want to subscribe on YouTube, iTunes, or Spotify, and, you know, I think it's a good podcast. It is not, I don't think it's a great podcast yet. The TV show, I think, is a great TV show in the medium, and I hope people check it out, and I can't believe we're at football season.

1:13:03I'm so excited about it. I'm so happy that we're there, and, yeah, you took the words out of my mouth. He told everyone he saw in Europe. He's a man on TV that argues about sports. For my money, there's no one better at doing it. Nick Wright, thank you very much. Play that music and then I'll tell you what we're coming up this week. We got a lot going on. We got Brett Coleman coming up on the show later this week doing some making the leap picks. We have our final Super Bowl predictions. That's with Patrick Claibon and Jordan Roderick. But you will hear from me next with Dave Damaschek doing our NFC over-unders.

1:13:35There's a few that I think are heaters there. We'll see you then.

1:13:44The entire draft room groans because you just took the guy they wanted. There's no better feeling than crushing your fantasy football league. I'm JJ Zachary, host of the award-winning late round podcast. Before your draft, our players to target and players to avoid episodes tell you exactly who to circle and who to cross off. Listen to the late round fantasy football podcast on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

1:14:39season long. Listen to the NFL Report podcast on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hey, I'm Mike Yam. And I'm Trevor Sikama. And together, we host the NFL Fantasy Football Show. Are you ready to dominate your fantasy league this season? Because if you aren't locked in with us on the NFL Fantasy Football Show, you're already playing from behind. Whether you're a first-time player or a grizzled vet chasing another championship, we give you the advantage and the confidence you need to make every move count. Listen to the NFL fantasy football show on the iHeartRadio app, Apple podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

1:15:16This is an iHeart podcast. Guaranteed human.