2026 Week 1 Picks with Nick Shook

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0:57Welcome to NFL Daily. where we want winners. I'm not Mike Singletary. I'm Greg Rosenthal and my guest on our very first Picks episode of the season. And for the first time making the picks against the spread this season, it is our friend Nick Shook, who's joining me from the Chris Wessling Podcast Studio. But I'm at home. Are you keeping work clean? Is everything okay there?

1:24Nick Shook:Yeah, this is weird. Usually it's from Cleveland. Now I'm in the studio and you're at home. it's a sign of what happens when you move I guess but I'm excited to get into these picks so I apologize for everyone who enjoyed the couple of years we had with Cynthia Freeland now you're stuck looking at Shook's ball dome the whole time Cynthia's amazing she's got all the numbers check out her YouTube with the numbers game I love Cynthia unfortunately ESPN came in and we merged and some of the ESPN people aren't available to us anymore, but we're still picking winners. And you've got a lot to live up to.

2:05Not only is Cynthia, you know, one of the best and the brightest, but she was smart enough to let me win last season. No, we're looking for winners in general. I went 38 and 24 last season, Shook. And what I wanted to establish for everyone, it's a very set show we do. Three picks against the spread. Only three. We can bring up some other games at the end if you want, just little extras, but only three count. But we are rooting for each other because like Mike Singletary talked about when Vernon Davis, you know, went to the, he sent Vernon Davis to the locker room. We want winners for our listeners.

2:42We're not allowed to gamble, but we want us both to win. So we can pick the same games if we want. We both want to do well. So this is a supportive atmosphere. I hope you're ready for it. I'm going to be so supportive, Nick. I'll give you the first pick.

2:55Nick Shook:All right, well, we're avoiding losers. To continue the Mike Singletary thing, can't win with them, can't do it. All right, so we're going to start here. Can't do it. Can't do it. I want winners. All right, my first winner is going to be the Pittsburgh Steelers facing, looking at minus three and a half over the Atlanta Falcons, and there's new reasons why. Not only was I already confident in the Steelers going into this game, but now we have news from Falcons practice today that Tua Tungavailoa showed that he may have aggravated his back. We are still awaiting some word on that, but we already know Michael Penix isn't involved.

3:30Nick Shook:That means that you're down to potentially Cooper Rush. The vibes around this situation are not good. Kevin Stefanski was in a pretty bad situation at quarterback last year with the Browns, almost as bad as of right now with the Falcons. The Steelers have the home field advantage. I'm going all Steelers here. I think it's probably a 7 to 10 point victory in this game. And I'm excited to see if I'm right for the first time. I was curious if the line would move based off the practice reporting. It hasn't budged at all thus far. Now, this was one of the picks I wrote down. And this is something for new listeners and for you who's just joining the show.

4:15It's kind of up to us. Do we want to go in together on a game when we feel really strong? Or do we keep them separate just to cover more games for entertainment's sake? I think in this case, I might just let you have it. But I do want to agree with you. Can the Falcons do anything up front? That's sort of my big question in this game. Is it going to be a total mismatch on both sides of the ball up front? That is a great place to start, no matter who's at quarterback. The Falcons offensive line on paper has continuity, has some good names. They're swapping out the center. But against this Pittsburgh Steelers defensive line, which is loaded, you got Nick Herbig now, Watt, and Highsmith all together.

5:03Everyone's healthy going into the season. I actually looked, and the Falcons gave up the fifth highest quick pressure rate in the NFL last year. So even though they have a good reputation, they were not good pass protecting. And so you're basically starting off here from the vantage point of like the Falcons aren't going to have any time to throw the ball. I'm not sure that the, you know, Aaron Rodgers offense is going to light up this team and the Falcons will send a lot of blitzes at them. But they don't have much of a pass rush. And I just feel like the one dominant group in this game should be the Pittsburgh Steelers defense.

5:34Nick Shook:Yeah, I think if you're looking for a bright side from a Falcons perspective, you probably should anticipate a lot of targets for Kyle Pitts. Tua loved him in the preseason. If Tua doesn't play and it's Cooper Rush, he's going to need to lean on him because like you just described, he's probably not going to have a lot of time to throw, which means those downfield routes are not going to develop and it's going to be rough. Yeah, could we get Jack Strand in week one? I don't think so. They announced Cooper Rush would be the backup, so why would they elevate Jack Strand? I doubt it. Obviously, a starting quarterback is really important.

6:00You guys might know as you hear this, it's not going to change. We're both big on the Steelers. I'm deciding if that's going to be one of my three because that was slotted third for me. The only game I knew I was taking, no matter what Shook did, like I'm in either way, like we can just go in together, was Philadelphia minus four and a half. That was the one line I saw that made me say, huh? Just like, oh, so like is Philly home? Did I miss something? Are we saying if this is at a neutral site, these are like two points separating? Like at this point, home field is about two and a half points or whatever.

6:42I'm just like a little confused. I'm confused it's not even one of your three picks, but I'm glad it's not. Just so we can handle more games. But again, I'm rooting for you, Shook. I want us both to go 3-0, 2-1 every week.

6:54Nick Shook:Right. And I looked at this one as almost like you, where I'm like, is the rug going to be pulled from underneath me? What do they know that I don't know? And I think a lot of this comes down to the unpredictability of week one. We have seen some very weird outcomes. I mean, we can even go back to last year and look at the fact that the Raiders beat the Patriots in week one and how the rest of the season played out from there. Weird things happen sometimes. I just don't have a lot of confidence in the commanders as they currently exist. The lack of momentum they're carrying into the regular season with the concerns about their offensive line and how important that is to keeping Jaden Daniels upright.

7:28Nick Shook:I think that this is a very lopsided game like you described. And I think the Eagles at home should win running away. Let's go. But then again, it's week one. So because I'm so confident, maybe something goes wrong and the exact opposite thing happens. Who knows? I'm glad you pointed that out. Back when I didn't work at the NFL and I had stopped gambling heavily on the NFL well before I moved to work here because it was stressful. But, you know, initially, I wasn't making a lot of money. I was trying to help pay the rent with that. You know, it's getting aggressive. And it's all problems. It was good.

8:04And one of the things, which I think is true, is that there's softer lines earlier in the season. And generally, yes, I kind of favor underdogs. I'll take points early when you don't really know about it. But I also think you've got to look ahead and try to think of opportunities, which in this case, I think, and I could be wrong, obviously, But I think in three or four weeks time, if you're replaying this game in Philadelphia, it's week four, Philadelphia hosting Washington. This is going to be like an eight point spread because we're going to see the shortcomings on the Washington offensive line.

8:41We're going to see that Philadelphia is not perfect, certainly offensively, but defensively, they're a wagon. And I think this could be a top five or six team in the NFL versus a bottom five or six team in the NFL. And I could be wrong, but I really don't know what to make about three units in this game, Although one of them, you know, the Eagles offense has Saquon Barkley and Jalen Hurts, who both competed at a really high level. But that's one of the units I don't know. That one and the two Washington groups. I know what I'm getting out of this Eagles defense. And so I feel really good about this one.

9:12This is my favorite one of the week by far. I wrote down a lot of games I liked this week. I liked about six, so I had to narrow it down six to eight. But this was the one I knew was going to be locked in. Let's go with your second pick, Shaq.

9:24Nick Shook:This is one where, if you're looking at it from a Lions perspective, you're thinking, I don't know, that's a pretty big margin. I don't know why you'd feel so confident in it. It's Jaguars minus 8.5 over the Browns. And they have the home field advantage there, and I just have no confidence in the Browns quarterback situation. The fact that they're rolling with Deshaun Watson, this has nothing to do with their offensive line, which they've completely rebuilt in the offseason. It has nothing to do with the skill players around them. It's the fact that I just don't believe Deshaun Watson can move this offense down the field.

9:53Nick Shook:And I do expect a couple of turnovers in their own territory, a lot of three and outs, a couple of short fields for Trevor Lawrence and company to get to work, and an early opportunity for them to build a big lead that the Browns just won't be able to overcome, and it becomes very lopsided early. So I think this is one of the biggest margins of the entire week, and I'm totally on board with it. Wow. What I like about the Browns doesn't have to do with their quarterback. That's what I don't like about them, and I think that's what's going to matter most in a season opener on the road. Man. And, you know, you did the thing.

10:23You're picking against your own team in week one. I would always get on Cynthia. Like if she went against Detroit, it's bad. It's bad mojo. She had like a computer system. So she was like, I'm not the one picking. You know, this feels, and you got to be careful of this, a little emotional, Shook, that, you know, this team just annoys you so much. You're almost rooting against Deshaun Watson, or it's an emotional hedge that, you know, either way you win, because if they win, then you feel good about it. But what if they lose by five? Then you're like, I lost in multiple ways as a fan. Yeah, that's true.

10:58And in this way. That is true.

11:00Nick Shook:And you know what? I've had a lot of emotions over the last, what is it now, Thursday, over the last week and a half. This is not an emotional one. This is solely because of football. And, I mean, look, Browns fans have come after me because they saw my game score pick on this, on the game preview on YouTube. 30 to 9, that's what I went with. and they're after me. But you know what? They can't make an argument against it. You're like Claiborne. He went through every team's schedule to do his record predictions on our podcast. And I think he had the Browns winning one game or two. Yeah, see, I did this exercise too and I had some really weird records that I kind of had to go back and adjust.

11:38Nick Shook:But I think I had the Browns maybe like four and 13. So the two big lines of the week, and you're right, week one, uncertainty is built in. eight and a half for the Browns is the second biggest nine and a half for the Chargers over the Cardinals is is the biggest I would take the Cardinals just because I don't want to give away that many points if I had to choose in this game and I wouldn't this is just a stay away yeah I would take the Jaguars too because I really believe in their offense and I and I really believe they're multiple and I believe that the Browns defense could be a lot worse all right my second pick.

12:11I'm going bucks plus three and a half. This is one and I try to do gut reaction, like what feels wrong right off the bat. And I just write down the ones and then I really think about them and try to sort them. And this is just one of the ones where it's like, I'll just take three and a half points. And they call that, you know, Cynthia would teach me, you know, they call that extra half a point, the hook gets you to do it. You don't want to just write on three. You're more likely to pick something that's three and a half. And I'm like, yeah, that hooked me because I just think the Bengals will be absolutely thrilled to get out of here with a win.

12:45And this is just a toss up. And so you give me three and a half free points. I'll take it. This feels like a buzzer beating field goal one way or another. Specifically, I like the Bucks pass rush, giving this Bengals offensive line, which I think is overrated, trying to work out the new way they're coaching up Joe Burrow with more under center. A lot has changed there. Whereas Todd Bowles and his defense, he's added talent, but they have come out swinging in the last few seasons. I went and checked on it. They've started at least 2-0. And I don't go with the history stuff too much, but it's Todd Bowles, even going back to the Bruce Arians era, they've started out 2-0 like five or six straight years.

13:26I was like, they always start pretty fast. And what do we know about the Bengals? They never start fast until last year where they did win the first couple games. But even that first game, they had 140 yards of offense. So that helped put it over the top. But ultimately, I think the Bucs are just a little bit better as a team. It is in Cincinnati. Two very evenly played, you know, teams in my mind. And so I'll just take free points.

13:50Nick Shook:Yeah. And you make a really strong argument. I mean, this is the game that I felt was the biggest, just from picking a score perspective, not against the spread. It was the biggest toss up of all of them because I agree going in any direction. And a lot of it is, you don't want to lean too much on history, like you said, but a lot of it is pointing back to history. Like, I was doing some prep for another show earlier this week and dove into a research packet, and there's a whole section about how Baker Mayfield just starts hot every year. He's a week one monster. He's got a 3-0 record, a 9-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

14:22Nick Shook:He's also 3-0 versus Joe Burrow. He doesn't have Miles Garrett on his side anymore to intimidate Joe Burrow and scare him into being a less-than-productive quarterback, as he was many times in those Bengals-Browns games. But you think about the slow starts for the Bengals, you kind of toss out the home field advantage scenario of it, and the continuity of a defensive approach versus an offense, like you said, has kind of tried to retool itself and reimagine its style going into this year. There's more room for uncertainty and less steady ground, solid footing for the Bengals than there is the Buccaneers.

14:54Nick Shook:And I honestly think that the most intriguing part of this is what you mentioned as well, which is that pass rush against the Bengals' offensive line. because what we've known about the Buccaneers is that they've had to blitz to manufacture pressure in recent years. That may not be the case this year, starting with the addition of Reuben Bain, and it's not just him. So I like that. It goes against what I picked for the game preview section on YouTube, but it's a really good argument, and I can see this going either way. I try to be unemotional about these things. These lines are generally good.

15:21You go with A, gut feelings of like who's going to win, and then B, just where should the line be? To me, I just think it should be under three. To me, it should be one and a half or two and a half because I think the Bucs are just a little bit better. I know a lot of people disagree. Also, Todd Bowles, very difficult to prepare for him. Every offensive coach says that. I think it's an extra hard week one. You just don't know what's going to come. All right, you are on your third pick. You have taken the Steelers minus three and a half. You have taken your Jaguars to beat the Browns eight and a half.

15:56Do you have an underdog pick this week? Are you going three favorites?

15:59Nick Shook:No, I have an underdog stashed for a fourth pick, but I feel more confident in this next one, which is not an underdog. I'm going Cowboys minus two and a half over the Giants because how does the NFL's number two offense last year that's returning all of its key contributors is missing its starting left guard for the next four to six weeks. How do they not win by more than two and a half points in New York against the Giants team that we don't know much about? New coach, what's that defense going to look like? There's been a lot of investment in that defense, but we haven't seen the results yet.

16:28Nick Shook:And I know that this could be a bit of a Super Bowl scenario for the Giants hosting the Cowboys in prime time to start the season and new coach, new era, young quarterback, all that good stuff. But man, I really like that Cowboys offense with Dak Prescott and the 2 ,000-yard receivers and George Pickens and CeeDee Lamb. And I just believe that they'll be able to win by, you know, at least three points, even on the road, even in a prime time setting. I mean, I picked them to win by 15, which is kind of lopsided, but I take this one easily. Shook gets aggressive. I like that. I do. I like just putting up big numbers.

17:02This was a stay away for me just because there's just so much uncertainty with the Giants. Am I trusting the Cowboys on a week-to-week basis? Overall, yes, but it's on the road Sunday night. I'm with you. I would take the Cowboys if I had to choose one, but it just wasn't one that spoke to me as loudly as that Steelers one. I feel like we should just go in together. I'm going to give you my thought process here. You have your three locked in. It sounds like you have just an extra one you want to play. Since you took Pittsburgh first, I mean, that's your game. And we don't need to fight over it.

17:38We can agree. I'm going to talk you through my thought process here for my last pick. So I could either go with Pittsburgh, which was either two or three on my list. Like, it was there the whole time. It was the one that was calling my name, you know?

17:52Nick Shook:Greg! yeah like that like the sirens and i'm i'm odysseus you know i don't know timing to the mast and i hear aaron rogers on like other podcasts talking about conspiracies and i'm screaming like matt damon uh while i take the the stealers three and a half i think that was pretty good analogy it held up yeah the other one in my heart is the texans and i'm trying not to fall into the trap and this is why it was fourth of well i picked them to win the super bowl so It's like, I think they're going to be great. So it makes sense to pick them this week. I'm trying not to fall in that trap, but I think they just should be favored.

18:28It's nothing too crazy. When the line is under two, does it really matter if you're favored by one and a half or you're an underdog by one and a half? Probably not. Game's not going to come down to one, but it just bothered me that they're underdogs because if you played this team, this game last year in Houston, I'm taking the Texans. like in the playoffs, even like at no point last season, maybe when the Texans were struggling, but the bills were up and down. Would I say that the bills should be favored in that game? And what about like this off season makes you think that the Texans got significantly worse and the bills got better?

19:08Just feels like Josh Allen getting a few too many points. Then you throw in the head to head where the Texans have won the last couple games in the D 'Amico Ryan's Joe Brady eras. And I know Joe Brady was the coordinator, but it's just I don't like that they're not favored. But I also really respect the bills. So is it one of my favorite three picks? It's not. I'm going to go with the Steelers, but I just want to I'm going to give it. I'm going to give the people. Well, we try to give people because people aren't living by our rules here. Chuck, you know, they can they can do two games. They can do four.

19:41They want to hear us talk about the games. So it's a strong four. But you're saying I should have just done it.