2026 Week 2 Picks with Nick Shook

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0:57Welcome to NFL Daily. where we believe in the Steelers more than consensus. I'm Greg Rosenthal. We're back for our week two pick show. And by we, I mean myself and Nick Shook. We went together, Nick, on just one game last year against the spread last week. It was the Pittsburgh Steelers that came through for us. And that might be a little bit of a theme for this program on this.

1:23Nick Shook:It's the only one that you got, Greg. Not to rub it in or anything, but it's the only game that you won. We're on the same team here. So I'm happy to win with you. Yeah. I went one and two. Shook went two and one. He was wrong in terms of doubting the New York Giants. Bad job there, but good job on, on fading your Browns. And yes, we, we both got the Steelers and let's just get into it. So a losing week. I look at it like we're teammates. Shook. We both want to win, but we're competitive. Like maybe I'm Jalen Brown and you're Jason Tatum and they're going to trade me away in a couple of years.

2:04Nick Shook:OK, that's fair. I have a cross-board analogy here and it's F1. You're both driving the same machinery, but your greatest competition is your teammate because you're in the same machinery. So there you go. NASCAR works, too. You know, I'm a you know, I'm an Alex Bowman, Hendrick Motorsports guy. And, you know, sometimes you're helping your teammates out. I'm starting the show with the Steelers. I'm doing what you did last week, which was fade the team that you root for. I try not to do this much, but five and a half for the Steelers stood out to me more than literally any line this week. I just look at these two teams in very similar lights.

2:38I think there's real weaknesses to both. There's real questions to both. It's going to be a theme for this show. What do we trust about week one versus what did we think going into the season? Week one didn't really change what I thought about either of these teams going into the season. I think they're both teams that have a real path to winning 10 games, 10, 11. Like I see them in the same sphere of NFL teams where they have some real strengths. And in Pittsburgh's case, it's one of the most dynamic front sevens in the entire league. I love what they did rotating their pass rushers last week.

3:12I'm intrigued by Nick Herbig playing off-ball linebacker. I loved what I saw out of Peyton Wilson. And I just think that matchup for the Patriots front and they're without AJ Brown, it's going to be hard for every team. And the Patriots should be thrilled if they get out of this game with a victory, whether it's by one points, two points, four points, three is fine. Five, we're getting nervous. If it's over six, I lose. But it's kind of you can't lose because that means the Patriots would play well. What do you think?

3:39Nick Shook:I know that we aren't necessarily always going to go together, but I'm going to go together with you on this. Oh, my gosh. This is nuts. I did not get your picks ahead of time. That is not why I started the show. It's funny that you went in that direction to start, though. It was the one I knew. I wrote down about eight or nine games here that I like this week. I am having a hard time narrowing them down, especially for that third pick. But this is the one I knew I had to get in there. Were there different reasons for why you were going Steelers here? I would take the Steelers straight up. The line doesn't even matter to me in this game.

4:13Nick Shook:Just because of how well their defense performed in week one. You know, it's hard because in week one, we have to take everything with a grain of salt because weird things happen. We can't trust week one. But what I saw from this defense against Atlanta's offense was a complete suffocation. Yes, they had Cooper Rush, a quarterback, but they even shut down Atlanta trying to force feed Bajon Robinson. Kyle Pitts went without a just he had one target, zero receptions. And I think that they could do something similar to the Patriots, who now don't have A.J. Brown, who I know they were playing Seattle last week, but they looked pretty lost offensively once they lost A.J.

4:44Nick Shook:Brown. So I think the Steelers can have a similar impact on the Patriots offense that the Seahawks did and put the Patriots in a tough spot. And I also think that we should we'll probably end up giving Atlanta's defense more credit in a month from now than we do right now. I do believe that the Steelers offense is going to be more explosive than it was last year under Mike McCarthy. I saw more of granted 42 years old, but I saw more of Aaron Rodgers when he was in his later stages in Green Bay under McCarthy than I ever saw last year. He had a little bit more freedom in this offense, and I think he'll be able to make some plays against New England.

5:16He did go down the field more. We didn't talk a lot about him on the previous show, so I'm glad you brought him up. He was moving pretty well. The touchdown throw that he had was getting outside the pocket. The problem is he just wasn't accurate enough. They didn't get some calls on some long PIs that hurt, but I did like the idea that they at least were pushing it down the field. I'm not trying to get too high on this Steelers offense. It's really more about these two teams both have so many unknowns. When I wrote down nine games that I'm kind of intrigued by the numbers, like seven of them were just like, I'm just going to take some points here in week two when I can, because I think it's all going to be so unpredictable.

6:01And I did see with Rodgers, like he was a little more willing to take a hit. And I am curious though, So like Cooper Rush was awful in that game.

6:09Nick Shook:Oh, God, he was terrible. So he's no Drake May. All right, I'll go. Let's go with your second pick then. So we're both on the Steelers for the second straight week. The unofficial team of the pick show. What could go wrong back to back weeks? Who do you got as your second pick? I'm going to go take some more points. Like you said, I'm going to take Jaguars plus two and a half at Denver. And I think this was the one I was most conflicted over and had to kind of dig into the numbers to think, well, what went wrong for the Broncos in week one? Bo Nix was overwhelmed for the majority of that game, and their defense could not tackle to save their lives.

6:44Nick Shook:Thinking about how that matches up with the Jags, well, they have a pretty explosive offense. I can see the Broncos missing tackles and the Jags making them pay for it as well, although not necessarily in the same fashion. I think more through the air than on the ground, and it'll be a little more challenging, I think, for them than it was for the Chiefs through the air. Well, the Chiefs didn't do well through the air, but I think that matchup will be more challenging. And then I thought, okay, how does the Denver offense bounce back They got to get Knicks comfortable and in a rhythm. So then I went back to the Jags game against the Browns, which is not a litmus test, but I dug into the blitz rate numbers.

7:14Nick Shook:And I thought, hmm, they got five sacks. How much did they blitz? They did not blitz as much as the Chiefs did against the Broncos. Chiefs were at 30.3%. Jags were at 27.6%, but it's close enough. The pressure rates were almost identical. 45.5 % for the Chiefs, 44.8 % for the Jags. So that tells me that they're going to probably find a way to find some success. They might have to bump up that blitz rate. But I do believe, even though it's not apples to apples between the Browns and the Broncos, obviously, I think that they have the formula to beat this team. So it's another game where I'm like, hey, they're the underdog already.

7:44Nick Shook:I would probably take them straight up, even though they're going to mile high. So I like this one. I like it. It's one of the five or six I was in consideration for, and I'm not going to go in with you on it just for the sake of variety. That was partly what I figured could happen on this show. Like you would just cancel some out. my thing with this game is that I don't see these teams as even and you got to get unemotional sometimes when picking against the spread two and a half is basically saying you put everything into the computer these teams are even we're in Denver like two and a half is what you get for a home team uh they're even and based on everything last year I get it I think there was enough concerning elements out of week one for Denver to think they're not that even right now.

8:32And I try not to care too much about previous years, but when it's the same play caller and it's so similar in terms of the team, Jacksonville went to Denver last week, 16. That's late in the season when they're both fully formed and got their best win of the season. Denver moved the ball pretty well in that game. There were two turnovers by Bo Nix, but Jacksonville won by a couple of scores in Denver. When they both needed a victory. And so that matters a little bit to me that Liam Cohen had some good answers for this Vance Joseph defense. I mentioned Bo Nix, and this is what puts it over the top and why I'm tempted to just go along with you.

9:11Have you heard anything about the Colin Coward, Bo Nix stuff going on this week?

9:15Nick Shook:Anytime Colin Coward gets involved, I try to stay away just because it's usually pretty dramatic. I get it. I get it. But sometimes, you know, you got to be open as an analyst. Okay. You never know where the good info is going to come from. All right, bear with me here. Colin Coward's gone incredibly hard this week that Bo Nix is not good. He's not really sure about Bo Nix anymore, and he had always been a Bo Nix guy. And then furthermore, that sometimes coaching staffs fall out of love with players quickly. Like they loved Micah Parsons until they didn't in Dallas, and that this coaching staff, You know, they're not sure how they feel about Bo Nix.

9:57And that's pretty strange. Like, isn't Colin Coward and Sean Payton kind of well-known for hanging out in the South Bay of Los Angeles when they were down here? See, this is where you're bringing all the information that you can gather. When Sean Payton was working for—and yes, you can look it up. They're close buddies. He's always parroting what Sean Payton wants him to parrot. And he's talking crazy trash about Bo Nix. And then I think, Chuck, back to April, March, April. Remember the whole injury stuff after the season where Bo didn't like Sean Payton getting in his injury report business? Maybe this means nothing.

10:35Maybe Bo Nix just had a bad week one, but add it all up. And just like that's an extra little push for me to want the Jaguars.

10:41Nick Shook:The idea of trouble in paradise after week one is not a new idea in this league. but it would be especially surprising given the optimism that followed the Broncos into this year after what happened last year. But I do appreciate you connecting all of the red yarn from one point to the next on the bulletin board, because I think there's something to it. I don't, this is how the sausage gets made that I think there's some sort of creative friction potentially behind the scenes between Bo Nix and Sean Payton. And maybe it's coming out with the play calling is Davis web, whatever it is. Like you don't need to push me too hard to doubt Bo Nix a little bit, especially in a tough matchup.

11:19Nick Shook:Let's spin this positively for Broncos fans. So they don't get all over us right now. Okay. How about this? Maybe it's Sean telling his buddy, Colin Cowherd to go rag on Bo Nix this week as a form of motivation. Go, go focus the attention on Bo Nix and not on Davis web, even though I'm already frustrated with not being able to call plays, let the focus be there and let Bo respond. Cause I know that's the type of coaching and pressure that he needs. Maybe that's what it is. Okay. I like that theory too. I just thought that was fun. I saw that storyline and I was like, ooh, this would be a fun thing to talk about.

11:53I'm going to go with the Raiders as my second pick, plus six and a half. Like I said, a lot of teams getting a lot of points. It's the big question of the week. A, what would this line be a week ago? And B, I think about, and this is the tougher spot, what do we think this line is going to be in a few weeks? The Raiders are six and a half point underdogs on the road against the Chargers. I should say specifically, it sounds weird to even say they're on the road because they will have the home field advantage. There will be way more Raiders fans there. So I don't give them any extra points. Now, if this game was a week ago, this line is probably eight and a half, you know, it's eight and a half or nine.

12:35So the sharps might look at it as like, there's some value here. Like everything going into the season, the Chargers should actually be more than a touchdown. I look at it and I see some real concerns with what happened with the Chargers that I think could be sticky. Like why are we treating the Cardinal, the Chargers as a team that's going to be the heaviest favorite of the week last week and one of them this week. But more importantly, I saw with the running game with the Raiders and the pass rush with the Raiders, and I know it was against Miami, but especially the running game that that's something that feels sticky to me.

13:11So can this running game be good enough against the Chargers this week to just keep the game close? And there's enough uncertainty that you just give me six and a half points. I will take the six and a half points.

13:23Nick Shook:I am curious to see if Ashton Gentry is as much of a weapon in the passing game this week as he was against the Chargers last week, because that was like one of the underlying things that some people probably noticed, but they looked at his rushing line and they were just like, look at him. He had a hundred yard game, but he was also very important in the passing game. And if that's something that they're going to be able to rely on. And I want to see exactly how this Chargers offense, which has more weapons than the Dolphins did, if they can actually put more points up and kind of keep pace. It still feels to me like it's a game that the Chargers win.

13:55Nick Shook:But as of now, going off of what happened in week one, I can understand why it got a little bit shorter. I like your pick. That's tough. I want to believe in the Raiders. You don't want to be chasing week one, I know. taking a step forward, but I don't know, man. I think now that I think about it, I think you're still kind of going out on a limb. I do a little. And who did the Chargers call to get two straight home games to start the season? Not only two straight home games, but two games against the Cardinals and the Raiders. They need to win this game. And their defense has always been greater than the sum of their parts.

14:32I think they're going to be fine. I don't love betting in this case. We're not allowed to make any wagers, to be clear. We work for the NFL. were just making our picks against the spread, they would get rid of us, Shooky, if they found out. They would. I feel anxious going on any side with Kirk Cousins right now. Was not impressed with him week one, not moving well, not a good arm. We're also going to have to learn over the course of the season how much of a tax it is playing against Miami every week. I think more specifically, that's going to be against the Miami offense. And so we'll see. Maybe the Raiders' defense will get flamed here.

15:08I saw enough out of Gentry who I think they used in a very similar way to how Clint Kubiak and Kyle Shanahan used Christian McCaffrey when Clint Kubiak was in San Francisco. And I think they're going to have a really strong running game. We don't know if Brock Bowers is going to play in this game as of now. We don't know if Ladd McConkie is going to play in this game as of now. Those are both important. If I had to guess, you know, McConkie's maybe a little more likely, but they both might be trending out. But either way, six and a half points. Like I said, I looked at a lot of the underdogs this week.

15:41Let's go for your third pick.

15:43Nick Shook:Okay. I'm stuck between two here and I'm going to go Panthers minus two and a half against the Falcons. Falcons after losing in Pittsburgh to start the season, go to go back home to, you know, start their, they get their home opener against a division rival, a team that just got 59 points dropped on them. And they think this is our offensive bounce back. But the issue with me with the Falcons is who's playing quarterback. Is it still Cooper Rush? Is it Michael Penix? Either way, I don't have a ton of confidence in them. Now, you look at this and you think that Panthers defense is going to give up a lot of points no matter who's playing quarterback.

16:17Nick Shook:But the difference in skill and also Michael Penix potentially playing his first game after an ACL injury doesn't make me think that the Falcons are going to be capable of putting up a ton of points on them, even if they're able to use their weapons. So I still lean Panthers despite the defensive concerns, and it all comes down to one guy, Bryce Young. because he had probably the best game I've seen in his career. He made some of the best throws I've seen in his career in that loss to Chicago. If that holds this season, Bryce Young is going to cement his place as the franchise quarterback of the Panthers, and getting a win on the road against a divisional opponent in this game would be a massive victory for him, in his case for a long-term future in Carolina, and also just for the Panthers after they gave up 59 points last week.

17:03they're the side in this game that I trust the most. And I'll go to that point a lot. It's one of the reasons I was taking Pittsburgh plus five and a half. In the end, the side I trust the most on either team was the Steelers defense. In this case, it sounds crazy, but it's the Panthers offense. I really like what Brad Edzik, their new coordinator did. They're leaning into a lot of the spread point and shoot stuff that Bryce young is, is best that maybe that hurts the running game a little, but tempo, I think their offense is going to be the best group in this game, but it was a good shout out earlier.

17:35The Falcons defense, I think played some good team defense last week. So two and a half point favorites on the road in the division. That's a stay away for me, but good luck to you because you are, you are my Jason Tatum. This is so hard. I have so many games. I really like, and this is what we're going to do at the end of each show. Just give you some extras. The games I'm considering most commanders plus four and a half. I liked what I saw out of the defense last week. To me, I just don't know what I'm getting out of them or the Cowboys, and so I kind of like four and a half points there. But I'm going in order of ones I'm probably not going to take.

18:12The Jaguars you mentioned. I like that. The Saints getting eight and a half in Baltimore. A lot of points, you know. It's a pretty rough wide receiver group for Baltimore. There were some vulnerabilities there, I thought, in terms of their pass protection. I don't think the Saints are going to let everyone fly around against man coverage like the Colts did a week ago. I just think they're a more sound defense. You just got to stay with an eight and a half points. It's tempting. Where I'm leaning right now, though, Shook, is just trust in my Super Bowl pick, the Houston Texans. The Nico Collins injury has me a little worried.

18:55They are two and a half point favorites, Houston, at home against Cincinnati. You're basically saying these are two even teams by accepting that line. I don't believe that. So there's a lot of games I like out here, but I don't believe they're even teams. I believe Houston's defense had a horrible week and they have championship, like, medal and talent on that side of the ball. And they're going to play much better this week. and I liked everything I saw except for the turnovers out of Houston's offense this week. Ultimately, I just think they're a better team, and that's where my gut is going right now as my third pick, Houston minus two and a half.

19:35Nick Shook:Interesting, interesting. I think you're going to chain yourself to the Texans, I don't know, water heater for a while in this season, and I understand why because you made them your Super Bowl pick, and that all makes sense, but that's putting a decent amount of expectation on CJ Stroud against the defense that is remade and only has found one week of success, but also forced a number of turnovers, which is CJ Stroud's weakness is ball security. Uh, let's see two fumbles last week. Baker Mayfield had three, the Buccaneers had four. If Brown were to fumble twice more, I think that that would probably wipe out your pick.

20:16Nick Shook:But I understand the logic makes sense. Joe Burrow with back soreness, tightness, whatever it is, against the Texans defense, not going to put up a bunch of points, and then it becomes CJ Stroud in the offense versus the Bengals defense, and you think, alright, well, I'm taking the Texans offense in that scenario. I think that when this game is played, you're going to find yourself in a more uncomfortable situation than you are right now. Well, none of these are necessarily easy, which is why I generally lean more towards just taking points this early in the season. Like I said, I like commanders plus four and a half.

20:51I like the saints plus eight and a half. I like the Colts plus six and a half. Like show me again, Kansas city that you're going to just blow teams out. Like I, there's just so much uncertainty that I'll take six and a half points with the Colts on Sunday night football. It wouldn't be one of my topics. Like I kind of like the jets getting three and a half at home against the Packers with all the Packers weaknesses, but we're only allowed to pick three. That's what I think makes this challenge interesting. And I hear what you're saying about the Bengals. I also saw the Bucs go up and down the field on them, run the ball pretty well for them, and have to sweat out until the last possession, a generational fumble recovery game where you force four fumbles and you get all four.