2026 Week 3 Picks with Nick Shook

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0:58Welcome to NFL Daily, where we will never go in together on Aaron Rodgers ever again. I'm Greg Rosenthal. I'm with Nick Shook. It's week three picks against the spread time. Shook, we are not allowed to agree on a game this week. We've done it back-to-back weeks. When we both go in on the worst offense in football, the Pittsburgh Steelers, and we lose, they don't get anywhere near covering, then we are in the penalty box for one week. We cannot agree on a game.

1:29Nick Shook:Yeah, I was going to say, I feel like I'm in timeout. Like, we just made one bad decision together, an ill-advised decision, and all of a sudden, my face is in the corner. Like, okay. Thank you. Thank you, Steelers. Appreciate it. Look, they are the number one defense in the league, according to EPA, according to DVOA. I thought that game, watching it, was much closer than the score, but can't go with them again. So what we do on this show each and every week, we pick three games against the spread. Last season was my best season. Even with a bad playoffs, I went 38 and 24. We were we were zooming.

2:00So have faith. It takes a while. I'm two and four on the season this year. We lost on the Texans as well last week. I did get the Raiders right. And when I went through my long list of picks, I wrote down like nine picks before the week. I was five and four. The long upsets were better. Shook, you also went one and two. You lost on your Jaguars and you won going away on your Panthers. That should almost count as two. That's three and three. Let's get into this week's picks. That's old news. You're even on the season. You're doing fine. We're going to turn it around this week. I will give you first pick here.

2:36Who do you want?

2:37Nick Shook:Okay, first pick. And since we can't go in together, what do I feel the most confident about? Well, Greg, you know, you doubted them last week. You continue to doubt them. and for some reason I have to take up the mantle of the opposite corner of the state of Ohio that I'm from, and I'm going with the Cincinnati Bengals again, minus 3.5 over the Steelers. Yes, I know this is the number one defense in terms of EPA, in terms of DVOA, and I respect this defense, but I don't respect this offense, and I have a lot of appreciation for the Bengals defense. So I think the combination of the two gets them over that 3.5 point requirement, and they end up winning this and moving on to 3-0.

3:15So, you know, you're a responsible guy with your money. We work for the NFL. You have for a long time. You're not allowed to to gamble and you haven't done these picks either. Someone could say from the outside, you're making an emotional swing against the Steelers after they cross you. Now, now the real like cold blooded killers, they get the team right one week and then go against them the next week. That's what you got to do. But here it sounds like you're acting a little emotionally. The Steelers have changed up some things up front. They're going to start their first round pick, Maxi Hanachor.

3:46They're going to start, I believe it's Brock Hoffman, the former cowboy at right guard. So making a change there. What do you think about that matchup up front? The fact that they're already changing their plans. A very good Bengals pass rush right now against that front for Pittsburgh.

4:03Nick Shook:Yeah, through two weeks, I think what's really transformed this Bengals defense is the arrival of Dexter Lawrence. And it wasn't just, you know, stuffing the Texans on fourth and short. It's not just, you know, racking up a few pressures. It's the way that he forces offenses to adjust on a per-play basis. So the idea of changing one of your interior offensive linemen in the week that you're going up against Dexter Lawrence concerns me. They have a good center next to him, so I don't worry about that as much. But this is a Steelers offensive line that I think had built a pretty solid reputation for itself last year.

4:33Nick Shook:Not a tackle as much as in the interior, so I don't feel very encouraged by that. I do want to see Ihanichur play it right tackle, though. That was one of my favorite tackles coming out of this class. And that should give them an upgrade. But again, this is somebody with not a lot of experience against a good front. So, yeah, I think this Bengals defense is still going to capitalize. It's going to look pretty similar to the dysfunctional, inept offense that we saw in New England for the Steelers last week. I wrote down about eight, nine games on my long list this week. This was not one of them.

5:06The three and a half felt a little big. If I was forced, I would be on your side as well. Based on what we've seen so far, Bengals are a top five team in the NFL. I'm with you. I'm going to start with the Jets. I'm going plus six and a half. They're in Detroit. I just try not to overthink these early in the season. I think these are two teams in the middle of the NFL right now. The Jets, eye test and statistics have looked like an average team. The Lions have looked like an average team. Maybe their offense not quite at their very peak, but very good. And their defense, you know, one of the lackluster groups in the league.

5:46Six and a halves a lot. If you really want to get crazy, the Jets right now are third in the NFL in yardage differential, which I like. You know, they're moving the ball better than their opponents. Obviously, the opponents are really important to consider at this point in the season. The Lions are coming off a tough Bills game. but the Jets, they took care of a Titans team where they looked much better and they outgamed the Packers by a significant amount. I just think they're a solid team. I think they'll protect Geno. It wouldn't surprise me if they win. That's where I'm at. If you're giving six points and it wouldn't surprise me if you win, I'm just going to take the six and a half points.

6:22It's so funny because I looked through all of these

6:26Nick Shook:and this is the one I stashed in my back pocket as my extra with the hope that like - It's gone, the extra's gone. You better hope I don't take another. You were probably going to take it. That's why I stashed it instead of using it as one of my top three. And for all the reasons that you just mentioned, I think opponent really does matter when you're evaluating the Jets right now and conditions that they played in last week really just skews the entire evaluation of their Week 2 performance. Yes, they blew that lead, and that kind of hurt me because I am buying into the Jets this year. But against the Lions, I can see Geno Smith behind a solid, a very good offensive line.

7:01Nick Shook:through two weeks, just distributing the ball among his playmakers. Garrett Wilson having a big day. This line's defense, they're not quite in the can't stop a nosebleed territory, but they're headed there. I know they've had two tough matchups, but I saw what Tyler Shuck could do against his defense in week one in the second half. And then you put Geno in there with the weapons that he has. I think they're going to go for a ton of yardage as well. And this was one of the ones where I was like, I can't believe that line exists. Yeah, I'm definitely going Jets here. So I'm with you, even though I'm not going with the pick.

7:29Okay, I like it. The Aaron Glenn factor of it all actually almost worries me a little bit. I don't know why him going back there in theory. Okay. He knows how that offense and Jared Goff goes, but they know what he wants to do. I just think they've looked well coached on defense this year. They've gotten good development out of the guys in the secondary Azaria Thomas and up front, even the first play of the game stands out to me last week, David Bailey, like saw screen coming gets in the way of it and then goes and makes the tackle. They've just played like a smart, well coached team. I don't know if they're going to win.

7:59I just think it'll be a close scheme. So I like the Jets plus six and a half. What is your second pick?

8:04Nick Shook:All right. Well, this is tough because now I'm thinking about it from a draft perspective and I'm trying to project where you're going to go. What's your position? What are the odds we have the same picks? I mean, you did say Jets. I don't think any of the other ones I have, maybe one, one of my extras would be predictable. Okay. Don't worry about it. All right. I'll go and I'll go in descending order how I group them. We're going to go, and I am not piggybacking off the idea that this team lost their starting quarterback for the regular season, but we are going to go Titans plus 2.5 over the Giants.

8:38Nick Shook:Look, I think that the situation with the Giants at quarterback is obviously discouraging. I also really like the way the Titans played last week against an Eagles team that is superior to them, and I believe that they can carry that momentum to their first victory of the season. And the idea that they were the underdog in this one just made me even more confident in them. And so I feel good about their chances. Now, of course, this is the first time they're going to go on the road this year. And that'll be a challenge. But I mean, the Giants took an absolute gut punch emotionally last week. So I think it's going to be difficult for them to bounce back against a Titans team that's starting to figure it out a little bit.

9:13Nick Shook:And I could see Cam Ward and company doing enough offensively to win this game. And so for that reason, I'm rolling with the Titans. So I had a nine team long list. again the end if anyone cares yeah and uh like then i narrowed it down to five which i was really strongly considering the giants minus two and a half were not one of my five but they were one i wrote down i'll be rooting for you now because again we're on the same team we want our listeners to be right it did feel like you got the worst giants effort possible last week you're back at home who has the edge at quarterback jamis winston versus cam ward who's to say i don't know that there's an advantage.

9:52Nick Shook:One's more likely to turn the ball over multiple times than the other, and that would be Jameis Winston. Which is crazy, but yes, Cam Ward has avoided mistakes this year. He also hasn't really been making plays. They obviously looked better last week, and that's ultimately why I stayed away. Their loss of Brian Burns is really important, and so that limits their pass rush, and you think of their defensive line as an asset. It really wasn't against the Rams they got bodied a little bit and now without Brian Burns like you can attack in the interior I see you okay I feel you I'm gonna go to Rio I'm gonna go to Rio with my second pick I'm going Ravens minus three and a half was that on your list no I felt that was a little too chalky for me yeah it it is I had a couple chalky picks I'm only gonna pick one I just think the run game is a force of nature.

10:47You know, the Cowboys answered some questions last week. They still had some blown assignments. The Ravens were unlucky to lose that game. I think it took some great plays from Tyler Shook and the Saints to win it. There weren't many possessions, a couple short yard situations where the Ravens got a little too aggressive. But I like the play calling. I just think in a shootout where the Cowboys have not shown to me that they're going to be able to stop the run at all this year. I trust the Ravens to put up 35 to 40. And then I thought about the coaching on all four sides here. And to me, Minter versus Brian Schottenheimer when the Ravens defense is on the field, they might get Namdi Matabuike back this week is a great matchup.

11:33And I think the Cowboys talent is better on offense. They probably win that matchup, but the coaching is good on both sides. When it's Declan Doyle and the Ravens offense, I've been so impressed by what I've seen, especially in the running game. I think that that's a mismatch right now in terms of first-time coordinators, Declan Doyle versus Christian Parker. They put up about 38. The Cowboys put 30, but they just make a mistake late, something like that, and we give Rio something that can remember for a long time.

12:03Nick Shook:Okay. I like the way that you see this game unfolding because I agree, and I think it really kind of just defines my lack of trust in the Cowboys right now. What I think is lost in last week's result is that, and look, this is the what-if game, and I get that, and I don't like to play the what-if game, but watching the flow of that game, if Jaden Daniels doesn't get hurt, I think that's like a one-score game through four-court. I think that the commanders play them tightly all the way to the end. And that's no knock on Marcus Mariota. It's just Daniels was making so many plays with his legs that was just absolutely shredding the Cowboys' defense.

12:38Nick Shook:They had no response for it. And through two weeks, I haven't really seen all that much from Christian Parker to think that he's going to be able it'll adjust on the fly. Now, my big drawback, that's why it's chalky, by the way, is because I feel like the Ravens just have the advantage. I feel like the public is going to be on Ravens minus three. Yes, yes. But my big concern with this is what was Declan Doyle doing last week when he went away from the run so quickly? He regretted it. It was like two possessions. You know what the bigger problem I thought was that Jesse Minner, you know, slowly died on defense and then the game was suddenly over.

13:12It was one third and one call where they went for a deep shot. That would have been there, but your wide receiver is Chris Moore. You're probably not getting Zay Flowers. That's one of the reasons the number is three and a half. I just think ultimately they're in different classes, and I don't think he's going to go away from the run in this game, especially if Ronnie Stanley doesn't play at left tackle, which would be a bit of a concern for Baltimore. All right, your third and final pick.

13:34Nick Shook:All right, now I'm going full chalk, and it's Seahawks minus seven of the commanders. Okay. The commanders don't have Daniels. that's another team that takes a bit of a gut punch I have confidence in Marcus Mariota to keep the ship afloat but it lowers their potential just overall ceiling against that defense I just don't think that they're I think it's gonna look a lot like the game against Arizona did last week in which they're gonna try their best and they're gonna lean on their go-to guys and ultimately you're gonna get outscored and not be able to move the ball or finish drives at least like the Cardinals did so I have a ton of respect and appreciation for who the Seahawks are right now with Drew Lockett quarterback they didn't miss a beat and against this commander's defense, I think he will find more of a challenge, but ultimately it won't be enough of a challenge to prevent them from winning by at least a touchdown.

14:20I can see that. I agree if I had to take one. This was a sneaky rivalry back in the day. I don't know if you remember, they played a couple of playoff games. It was like an NFC wildcard rivalry. The Seahawks defense is going to be tested more later in the year, but man, they eat up. like bad, bad offenses. And they just put that boa constrictor on in the second half of games. I still have my doubts about this commander's offensive line. I think you'll get a representative effort here with Washington at home in this game. I think they can be competitive. It sounds like Sam Darnold is going to play.

14:59So I, I'm with you and whoever it is at quarterback for Seattle, I would be with you.

15:05Nick Shook:Yeah. It doesn't matter that much to me. What's your last pick? I thought when you said chalk, you were going to go Eagles minus four and a half. The fact that Case Keenum is only giving away four and a half points on Monday Night Football, as we tape this, it's not confirmed, but it's very likely Case Keenum. I'm not going to take that one. It almost felt like... Good, because I would advise against it. Why? Why? Because let's talk about this game before I make my third pick, because I do think their defense has been pushed around a little bit. Their offensive line has some real issues. There are health availability questions for Philadelphia.

15:38Tight end is a huge problem for them because they can't block and they don't have depth at receiver Philadelphia. And yeah, you know, it's it's Case Keenum. Why you believe in Ben Johnson in the running game that much that they can just keep it close?

15:51Nick Shook:I think it's one of those tricky games where you're in prime time on the road and all the issues that you just described are exactly why. Like the offensive line has not looked very good. I have confidence in Jalen Hurts to overcome that. But in that setting, you know, on the road, primetime Monday night game against a team that is looking to bounce back, a fan base that's desperate for signs of encouragement and reasons to be optimistic without their quarterback and a week to prepare. I think Ben Johnson could cook up a scheme that could keep that game really close. I hope, you know, I'm hoping so, because we're going to be doing the Monday night recap with with Jordan Rodrigue.

16:25And I want some good primetime games. We need him. OK, so it comes down to two other picks. That was in my top five. the Raiders are the one I'm not going to go with, but I do like the Raiders getting three and a half in New Orleans. My third pick, you got to sometimes take the pick that's just screaming to you, even if it's hard. Last week, in the end, I didn't pick the Saints plus eight and a half as my last one. It was fourth just because it's like, oh, it's a little hard to pull that trigger. They went and won it straight up. And from the author that gave you that one, here comes Chargers plus seven and a half in Buffalo this week.

17:00Such a big game. You got to look at the course of the whole season, Shook, and think about how important this game is for the Los Angeles Chargers. And can you imagine this team at 0-3? I can, but I can imagine them giving the best effort possible here. One thing I did this week, too, I went and checked where these lines opened way back in the day, like when it first opened. Can you guess what the line was like in the offseason when this game opened? Chargers at Bills week three. Chargers plus two and a half yeah it was three so you pretty much nailed it yeah okay a lot's changed injury wise though that the Chargers other than tight end like I think they have enough to get it done they've had a ton of penalties they have to clean things up they've been discombobulated I I get all these things I do look at like how the season plays out in general and the Bills defense has struggled so far.

17:59They did get Ed Oliver back at practice on Thursday, so that's good. DJ Moore and Keon Coleman weren't seen at the early portions of practice, so we'll see. We don't know about their availability. Ultimately, I just think the Chargers are too talented, too good, too cohesive. The coaching should be better that they can compete in this game. I don't think they're going to win. I definitely don't know if they're going to win. I think it's going to be a good game. They're going to make the Bills sweat. And I I know our producer, Eric Roberts, supports me on this one. He's worried about this as a trap game.

18:30All you got to do is keep it within a touchdown, Chargers. I believe in you. I actually like this, that you make a great case.

18:36Nick Shook:And there's something to be said about a team that's 0-2 and hears the noise outside and is not afraid to react to the noise at the podium, that they will enter this game with the backs against the wall type of feeling within the team and give maximum effort like you described. And they understand that they'll be walking into a raucous crowd in Buffalo, and it might be good for them to get away from home, to be completely honest, given how they've played for the first two weeks at home. And Justin Herbert snapped at a reporter kind of this week. He was asked about a lack of vocal leadership, if there was a leadership issue with the team, and he gave a response.

19:13Nick Shook:The reporter responded, and then he responded, and he said, and that's why I'm going to stop you right there. There's no problem with leadership in this team. And I was like, oh. like you know how sometimes you go into something and you're a little too high on yourself you're feeling a little too confident and life smacks you in the face yeah it humbles you and then you gotta you realize oh actually i do have to put x amount of work in and x amount of effort and preparation and then you get back to it and then you improve that could be the chargers not saying they're going to win the game like you said i could very much see them being an 0-3 team but it could be a very interesting game and that's what matters here and i could i could see them winning it is a long season and they're going to have their share of wins because of the schedule.

19:54They're in a brutal spot. But yeah, Eric points out to me, the Bills wearing the Nickel City jerseys. Those things are so ugly. And then Joe Brady this week, just talking about the smoke detectors and there's a fire in the house. He thinks there's problems. It's like, calm down. We'll have a nice little competitive game. I think you're going to do well over the course of the season, essentially. Always picking against what happened a week ago. When something happens dramatic, when a team plays their worst a week ago and one team plays their best, it usually comes back to level setting. And I think the Chargers level setting is at least competitive.