4 Fantasy Football Trends That Are Completely Wrong with Josh Norris

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29:05Life moves fast. At American Military University, they're ready to help you keep up. AMU's flexible, affordable online programs in cybersecurity, IT, space studies, and more are designed for service members, veterans, and their families. AMU provides the support you need to take the next step wherever life takes you. american military university it is made for what's next learn more at amu.apus.edu having fun here with josh norris yahoo sports give him a follow on all socials but yeah the the youtube channel uh josh and josh and hayden getting it done at yahoo sports it's almost like you know how to do this josh this is fun but um I hope what I am about to say to you doesn't just completely change your board in a way that makes you question what you've been doing the last six months.

30:07My fourth thing is that people just need to stop taking running backs, period. What? In the third and fourth round of these drafts. It's over. Third and fourth, maybe even fifth. Just there's not going to be any point to it. and just take these wide receivers. We will go through these running backs and the wide receivers one-on-one, one-by-one, and explain the overall strategy. But when I saw this list, Josh, it shocked me. Josh Jacobs. Yeah, good luck with that. Like suspension, injury, up and down, bad vibe, you know, accused of domestic violence. I don't want that on my team either. Jeremiah Love.

30:53I love him as a high ankle sprain. Love him as a player. Confusing. I'm not going to go crazy. Cam Scadaboo is an insane one. We'll dive into that. Javante Williams, eh, but still too early. Bucky Irving, what? Did you watch last season? DeAndre Swift, you could convince me at some point. I like that. Travis A. Chan and look, I love Basial too. And we talked to Trevi and Henderson. but are you crazy when you are comparing those guys and I'm going to give the list of the wide receivers going in the same area it is a joke like comparing these guys not just as football players but as fantasy football assets to the wide receivers that it's available I know which team I'm taking I'm just taking all the receivers if I'm if I'm drafted a team all the receivers it's why this year again I love drafting at the turn and in previous years you know I would never ever say that but again getting two of the running backs whether it be jt james cook saquon all the other guys that we mentioned at the top of the show uh and then hammering wide receivers from there because as you're saying the wide receivers feel like so much better clicks than the running backs there and that's been termed the dead zone recently in the fantasy football community the dead zone kind of didn't exist last year in a lot of ways but uh maybe it's back like how many running backs are being selected in the you know top 40 overall is about 17 right now that's a lot that's a lot so and you can pick holes in every single one of the profiles as you said and we're about like their top end outcomes might be exactly where you are drafting them those guys are fifth sixth round seventh round running backs to me like such big question marks I don't I don't like almost any of them and then Big picture, I'm just going to list off the names and then we'll kind of go through some of these players that we find the most interesting.

32:47But here are the wide receivers going in roughly the same area. Like at the end of the second round, third round turn, sometimes it's George Pickens and A.J. Brown compared to those guys. Chris Olave coming off that season that he just had in that offense. Zay Flowers, give it all to him. Like, Tetrault McMillan, like, put my mortgage on that. I mean, it's insane how long, how late he is going. T. Higgins, fine. Devontae Smith, like cash. No, T. Higgins is a great pick. He's fine. Let me just give you all the names. Let me give you the names. Lad McConkie later in the fourth. Jalen Waddell, Garrett Wilson, even maybe DJ Moore.

33:26Like, these guys are all just great bats. I like every single one of those names to varying levels better than every single one of the running back names I mentioned. I would not be taking those backs until like five or six and they're gone. Okay. What's going to happen now is in your redraft league that you play, hopefully you still play one. You are going to be destined to pick in the third or fourth spot. So that gives you Jamar Chase, Pukunokua. And then once you get back to the end of round two, Greg, there's going to be no running backs here to take either. Then that's like the Nico Collins brought.

33:59I would maybe take Saquon like third. I wouldn't care. Wow. I don't like, I would at least think about it. like if I'm that if I'm thinking ahead I would probably make sure I get one running back of the first two I don't think that's crazy I would think about it like well what is this to me there's not that big of a difference between I mean I love Jamar Chase but like whoever I'm going to get in the second round at receiver it's not that much of a difference whereas at running back I feel like I want a real deal dude and it some of these are crazy Zay Collins being that low and Tetrao and McMillan actually stand out to me as the guys who I and most shocks are going late, but give me your case on T.

34:40Higgins. Well, I mean, the T. Higgins one is pretty simple. I mean, the last time he played 17 games with Joe Burrow, he was the wide receiver four in points per game. You know, he went from six catches and 76 yards per contest from playing with Joe Burrow down to four catches for 56 yards last year. And that's because he got, you know, eight games of Burrow, six games of Flacco and three with Jake Browning. So T. Higgins is one of these guys It was kind of viewed as this high variance, boomer bust, all that type of stuff. But Greg, you know that these under center play action looks at the Cincinnati Bengals are throwing out.

35:12That's going to mean a lot of two man routes down the field and only two people are going to catch the ball. And that's Jamar Chase and T Higgins. So while, you know, it's been kind of inconsistent and they're trying to plow through it and make sure it works. I think it will in the end. And if it doesn't, they'll just abandon it and go back to what worked the last couple of years too. Yeah, I think he's fine. I just like the other guys more. And, you know, he's a little heavy, reliant on touchdowns, but he has been extremely consistent at that. But I'd rather just, like, catch his yards. It's more that I like the other guys.

35:43I got no problem with T. Higgins whatsoever there. Really, the only two receivers, if there were people paying super close attention and going through the ADP that I don't like that are getting taken in the third round, are neighbors just because I don't want the risk of it all and Rasheed Rice. I'm the opposite of you on neighbors. I'm the opposite. Um, in fact, after this recording, I am doing an episode where I go through like the 14 players. I'm betting my entire fantasy season on. That's a great, that's a great YouTube headline right there. That's you guys know how to do it. Yeah. I mean, I try to do it, man.

36:19Uh, he's my favorite round three pick right now. Um, and I have him 22nd overall. So I would take him at the end part of, of round two. Like there's been so much negative buzz around players returning from injury. so for this preseason but for him it has only been positive oh i don't know i i was really you don't think so i was listening well i don't care about what people are saying as much as what he is doing which is not even close to playing football yet and so at this point that that concerns me the the giants nation podcast i heard jordan raynon talk about a little bit like it was there his first day even going up against other defenders but you can't touch him and everything and he thought he was like, you know, is that just how he moves or is he like jumping off the wrong foot, limping around?

37:04I am worried when I don't think he's shown yet that he's particularly close to being 100%. People get over their skis a little bit. Like he's not on PUP. He's not doing this. Like maybe he will be playing week one. My guess is like he's not going to be full Malik neighbors for the start of the season. Like even if he's out there. And so when there's, it's more about the other options that are there when you're telling me that I could have McMillan or I like Zay flowers that much. I liked Devante Smith that much. I like like waddled that much where I just like go for it because I have a feeling we'll see the best of Malik neighbors in 2027.

37:42Cause that was a next level injury. That wasn't like a normal. It was, it was for sure. Just one final thing. One reason why, and look, whatever happened last year, we tried to recreate it with someone this year and Jackson Smith and Jigba last year, you know, in these heavier personnel looks, which the league is taking on at a ridiculous rate based on the NFL draft. He scored and had 51 % of his production on 38 % of these heavier personnel looks. Okay. Malik neighbors now has Matt Nagy and Greg Roman building this offense, right? Both of those teams that those two, you know, play callers or coordinators work for want to have these heavier personnel bodies on the field.

38:23So you have Theo Johnson, you have Isaiah likely, you have Chris Manhurts, you have Patrick Ricard. And what that does is we love that out of passing looks, because that just means the ball is going to be funneled to the best players and the best player by far is, is Malik neighbors. So you could be right at the same time, if he does miss week one or whatever, you're not taking a zero for that in your fancy league too. Like I will put on my shoulders to start to Sean stripling or Matthew golden in his place, for example. So, uh, I, I love all those wide receivers though like this this is why a salary cap or an auction league is so great because i would love to spend a lot on the top running backs and then exit with like four of those wide receivers all that you mentioned from alave to zay flowers to waddle to lad all that group is fantastic in my mind i mean even pickens and brown sometimes falling it looks like you're seeing like the third round it's a little wild to me i i am easily influenced by what i just saw and what I saw at the joint practices was like AJ Brown hitting that turbo boost past Quinone Mitchell.

39:23I was like, okay, like it's coming together. It's happening. Olavi, like it already happened. We saw it down the stretch. Zay Flowers is one where if I had the choice, Zay Flowers or Tetreault or McMillan, I'm going to take McMillan. I think McMillan is not like a crazy, like I probably wouldn't end up taking him in the middle of the second round, but I don't think like to me, that's closer to his value is like a top 20 fantasy pick. I think there's a real possibility that either one of those guys, but McMillan to me is just a better player than Zay Flowers is. There is a real opportunity and we're not, you know, we're not allowed to gamble or play fantasy for money here at NFL Daily, Josh.

40:05But we're allowed to talk about these odds and stuff like, of course, whatever the long odds of those two guys, one of them leading the league and receiving is like, I don't think that's a crazy notion that Zay or McMillan like have 1500 yards that they, that their league winner types, which is the type of guy that, you know, I want to be drafting our league winner types, crazy, huge ceilings. And I think the floor is quite high for, for both of them. What do you think about those two specifically? Zay, I think this is a great potential reset season for him. Not that he necessarily needs it from us, you know, true fantasy production as he scored basically in the spot, lot last year, but from a play caller standpoint and the real way that Zay Flowers not becomes like a little win like you're talking about, but a massive win is red zone targets.

40:55So he had just 10 red zone targets last season, only 17 over the last two years. Olamide Zaccheaus had more red zone targets than Zay Flowers had last season and red zone touchdowns. Okay. Zay Flowers, like touchdowns really matter at the end of the day. That is the big barometer of if you had a good fantasy season or not. And Zay has never scored more than six touchdowns in a season yet was the wide receiver 13 in points per game last year. But we have a new play caller in the fold, right? We have Declan Doyle, who by the way, was a coach on the staff for Alameda Zaccheaus last year. And I look at, and the size and, you know, the natural biology of the two might be a little bit different, but Zay Flowers versus Amon Ross St.

41:40Brown, right? And maybe, just maybe, Zay can be utilized in that condensed area like ARSB is, who, by the way, led the NFL with 34 red zone targets last year, had 66 over the last two seasons. So you get him some manufactured space, you get him in, you know, these stacked formations in this condensed field, and maybe that can at least get him to know five red zone touchdowns rather than 10. And that would be just a huge, huge win for Zay Flowers this season. Well, here's what he hasn't done as a pro. Missed the game, had less than 108 targets in a season. And I put something into the contract that they gave him.

42:20I mean, they believe in him. And this is something where he's not for everyone, but he is for them. Like, they love him. Lamar Jackson loves him. And this is one where I just love the fantasy situation more than the reality, because it's a cliff after him in terms of, like, Jacoby Lane, sure, maybe it's a fun late round pick, like Bateman. Like, there's other people there. Mark Andrews decline, all that type of stuff. But we just know he's going to be there. And if they have, you know, you're talking about, like, the receiver who's on the field in heavy formations, it's going to be safe flowers.

42:52So, you're a Panthers guy. But I want to hear T-Mac. I want to hear your T-Mac. Well, I'm kind of hedging with this one. I got to be honest with you. Because everyone is over the moon about Ted Aronk Millen, and I understand it, right? There's a lot of talk about getting him in the slot and that jumping from like 15 % to 30%. And we know when you're in the slot, you get the football. It's again, you have more manufactured space for you. I also want to bring up that for basically the first half of last season, Jalen Coker was not on the field. Right. And since Jalen Coker took over in the back half or like the final six games of last season, he and Ted Aron McMillan had the same target share and number of targets.

43:32and Jalen Coker was just more productive and all that. Now, that's not to say that he's a better wide receiver. It's more, Greg, that I'm a little bit nervous that everyone is hyping up Terry McMillan. And then if he doesn't perform this year, then everyone's just going to get in Bryce Young's case and be like, that guy freaking sucks. Well, yeah, you're a Panthers guy. So you're, yeah, you're trying to protect your heart. I would ask you, are people getting that excited about that Terry McMillan? But they're not. Like, this is one where - Well, in drafts they're not, but like the fantasy conversation okay this is one where where i i could be your consultant you know um like your fantasy just every august jump in and and try to uh give you my uh bird's eye kind of mckinsey like view here and one of them would be like oh i i don't think people are that excited about tetrao mcmill i think his profile and his ability and his like rookie season and thinking that he can get a lot better year two and just who he's going to be over the next four years that like i was quite surprised that he wasn't up there with aj brown and pick with like aj brown and pickens at like the two three turn that's like where i expected a guy with his profile because to me he has a real chance to just be a top 10 alpha fantasy alpha reality alpha for the next you know while so i actually thought like this is great value like the fact he's near you know, Abuka and guys like that.

44:57It's like, yeah. I buy that. I mean, he is truly, truly, truly sensational. And I actually think a, the transition to Brad Edzik calling plays has gone under the radar here where I believe that Brad Edzik is going to open things up from week one. Like it is on my radar that over the last two years, the Panthers have started slow offensively each time. And they were like trying to figure out exactly what worked in the passing game. But by the time we get to the second half of the season, you look at the underlying numbers and Bryce Young's one of the best like downfield throwers in the league. What if they just started in week one with that and both T Mac and Jalen Coker would be huge beneficiaries of that.

45:38And look, I know you were, you're a, you're a fan of the, of the Coker. You were, you were, you were one of the coke heads back in the day, right? You gotta be a little careful with the coke heads in the strip club. And yeah, like, yes, yes, I know. But at some point the play on words, and the bit goes a bit too far. Yeah, things could get dangerous there. But for people that are, you know, forgetting where we are in the show, we are in the fourth point that fantasy footballers are getting completely wrong. And if there's one takeaway from this show, at least what I want them to take away from me is you need to get all the receivers that you can out of this bucket.

46:13Pickens, AJ Brown, Alave, Zay Flowers, T-Mac. I'll throw Higgins in there, Devontae Smith. And since we've mentioned some of them, I did just want to get who stands out to you of the four more that I'm going to include in this group of guys. I would really like to get in drafts and I'm just going to keep drafting this bucket until they're gone. Lad McConkie. I think, you know, by low, so high, it doesn't get that complicated. I think the signs are all really good for Lad McConkie this year versus last year. Jalen Waddle. Very happy. If I end up with him, Garrett Wilson. And I think I'm going to throw DJ more in there too, from a fantasy perspective.

46:53Just some thoughts on those guys and who stands out to you out of them. If your viewers and listeners promise to go watch my YouTube video after this again with the 14 players that I'm betting my fantasy season on, Jalen Waddle was one of those names. He's my favorite round four pick for a number of reasons. Like you can look at the, again, the nerd metrics that we like with the over yard, four yards per route run off play action last year, which was a down season for the Dolphins. The Broncos had the third most passes off play action in the NFL last year. And then, you know, he was wide receiver 18 in points per game on an offense that was 31st in place.

47:28And now he goes to one that is fifth in place. Like there is such a big difference. Cortland Sutton ran 664 routes last year, Greg. Jalen Waddle only ran 442. Wow. A difference of 220 routes between the two guys. And those are just going to be given to Jalen Waddle with the hope that he doesn't hobble off and find the blue tent every other game, which has kind of been his history. But at the same time, Like this is exactly the player that Sean Payton spent a first round pick on to change what this passing game is going to be to take it to the next level. And when you think about this offense, it's crossing routes, it's screens, it's vertical routes like that is Jalen Waddle's game, right?

48:04So it's like a hand in hand fit. And I think there's a real chance that we look back and say he should have been a second round pick. Love that. I agree. You convinced me of the group I gave you. He would be my favorite. I think he's got a higher ceiling than anyone in that tier. I think he's got a higher ceiling than T Higgins. Like he absolutely could be a hundred catch, like monster yardage season. I like them all though. I think they're good picks. A little bit of injury risks, I guess with McConkie and Waddle, like they're similar, but this season, you know, being at chargers came in just what I've read and seen.

48:38I think McConkie is in a better place. Okay. So the reason I put all those names up there is I like each and every one of them better than each and every one of the running backs that I mentioned. And that's how we're going to close the show is going through some of the running backs. Oh no. And why I wanted to stay away from them. Cam, Cam Scadamoo is actually the craziest one to me. Granted his injury is one that, you know, the broken leg that you can come back from and look a hundred percent. And so far he looks good. He's, he's playing in the preseason. Like, I just think it's crazy to take them that high.

49:14Even if you're throwing the injury of it all aside, size, total ability, whether that backfield gets crowded, whether his running style can really work in the NFL. I'm, this is where we get back to good player. Like he's obviously a good, he's good at playing football, but is he going to be like a highly effective NFL player over his career? And even over this season, I got my doubt. I got my doubts about that. I do not think he's going to be the supernova statistically that he was a year ago at all so if you ask me to be negative norris here i can do with kim scottaboo okay so you mentioned the injury this is a dislocated right ankle fractured fibula and ruptured his deltoid ligament on top of it okay forgot about the ligament part yeah so there were four players in recent memory that did that and it was tony pollard mark andrews chris godwin and isaiah pacheco and all declined drastically massively in their fancy points the next season.

50:15Now they were on the field. You just didn't see it in your fancy scores. The other part of this is if you put your ear to the ground starting in March, the giants were on the look for like a big time asset at running back, right? There were the Ken Walker mentions the Travis H and mentions the Jeremiah love and NFL draft, all that. And then even the beat writers two weeks ago were saying that, Hey, they're going to make a move for a running back prior to the season starting. And I guess that move is Najee Harris. And while some people might laugh at that, we also need to think of, you know, he spent the season, albeit maybe six weeks with Greg Roman until he had his injury.

50:52Uh, but that means something to Cam Scadaboo who needs just about, I think everything in this offense. Now they're going to run the football a lot, but touchdowns are going to matter so much for him here that even if two or three or four going the direction of Najee Harris, that would be a sizable shift, I think, in the output for a season. Totally. And they have some similarities in terms of their skill set. I don't think they trust necessarily that Cam Scadaboo's running style and size are going to hold up over the season, so they need other options. And I think it'll be spread around more than people expect.

51:29And I actually think they'll be a good running team. And so that's a plus for him. but that's to me it's crazy town taking him in the third round or wherever he's going like he he to me is like a sixth seventh round type of running back so the the wide receivers i mentioned like i said just to make it clean i'm saying i would take them all over this tier but you said negative norris if we want negative norris out let's not include jeremiah love who i do have questions about the the role his rookie debut was extremely impressive he's one of those was it greg was it yeah i mean i have this reason yeah i have my doubts about that oh interesting okay to me i love the angle routes that he was getting versus you know just manufactured receptions three yards behind the line of scrimmage instead those were five yards beyond the line of scrimmage with all the wide receivers pushing down the field so that's an easy one but and you have a different opinion this but that's fine his usage and how he looked made me move him up but then the injury basically made me reset exactly back to where i already was ranking him i'm conflicted i had i loved him as a prospect i do love him as a player i just like him less in fantasy just watching that game i just thought he looked like a rookie in his first game where he was like a little tentative and he warmed to like have some jaw dropping plays.

52:58He's going to be an incredible pro I think, but I think at that price, like second, third round comparing him to what else is out there. I think it's a little crazy. Cause I think Algier, I think other running backs are going to get the ball there. They're going to be careful with them. He might be a little tentative and then a high ankle sprain projected for the lowest points. I mean, their, their schedule up until week 11 is an absolute nightmare. And then the high ankle sprain going into the season, like I get you, we're not trying to overreact to injuries and stuff, but there are so many players that don't have high ankle sprains going into the season that you can draft.

53:32So it's like once you already know that, then I don't want to deal with it. It's one thing to be coming off of it the previous year. It's a very different thing to have it right now, whereas to me, I would move him way down. Of the rest of this group, Josh Jacobs, yuck. I want no part of him. I think he's not draftable. Anywhere near where you would need to take him. Brees Hall, Devontae Williams I'm not going to like be as angry but I still want the receivers more Bucky Irving DeAndre Swift we're getting deeper you know Travis H in like of these guys where do you want to bring out the negative Norris and where do you want to tell me I'm wrong to what we can finish the show with a little back and forth on these guys the one I actually like the most of that group is Brees Hall yeah me too me too if if anyone told you that Brees Hall is coming off a career high in rushing yards, you would think they're ridiculous, but it's true.

54:28He is. Now that only equaled the running back 20 and scoring last year in points per game. And once again, it's back to because he only had five touchdowns. So I am not a Frank Wright guy. That's pretty clear. I'm really nervous about how he's going to be able to handle all these pieces. But at the very least, every word around Jets training camp prior to this groin strain or whatever it is, is that, hey, hey, we're going to get Belcal workload from Brees Hall. The Jets last year were 29th in touchdowns per game, 29th in red zone drives per game, 31st in red zone touchdown success rate. I just hope that they can inch slightly closer to league average.

55:07Like, Greg, we talk about, you know, a team being 20th in scoring versus 26th versus 16th and all this stuff. Really? You just don't want to draft someone that is on a bottom three scoring offense. Yeah. And I don't think the Jets are going to be a bottom three scoring offense like they were last year. I trust your guy Gino enough to do this and most importantly I trust the offensive line to be really good and above average and if that's the case that is a good enough ecosystem to have this thing be the 23rd 24th scoring offense and that's a great environment for Brees Hall to I think outproduce where he's going as the 11th pick of the third round the groin strain worries me a little bit he the question with him coming into the draft like oh would he be like a bell cow back Now, do you look at his first three years and ultimately take away, like, he kind of has been.

55:57I mean, he's been as consistent as it gets in terms of total touches year after year. So you have to give him credit. Maybe I'm overreacting a little to the groin strain. Like, he's not on a do-not draft list for me. Like, it's not crazy town to take him in the fourth round and, like, even late in the third. I just still like my receivers better. So that's the one you disagree the most. Let's wrap with, like, of those guys, is Javante, Bucky, A-Chan, Tootin? Is there one you agree with me is getting taken too away? It's probably Javante. Interesting. I do the show with Hayden, and to me, Javante is just like hitting a double.

56:37Like, hey, if I can draft the running back 13 at a running back 16 price tag, I'll do that every single time. I get that line every single show we talk about Javante. anyway um to me greg maybe i'm dumb enough but i think i'm smart enough to say to myself hey in the third round i could potentially draft a player that winds up top five at his position right because that's what wins leagues is when you draft someone 15th at their position that actually winds up as fifth or you draft someone 35th at their position that winds up 15th right it's not these small wins or small gains and i just don't see how javante williams does that right is if they have the number one offense in the league and he scores you know james cook level touchdown 14 touchdowns yes then that's kind of the route that's the route but that that is i think the only route like it's not hey if they actually wind up a little bit worse then he can go out there and have a whole bunch of receiving yards he's not that back anymore so i i just think and this this might be my bias standing in front here that i remember the prospect he was coming out of UNC and he's just like not even close to that player anymore.

57:44I'll bet he has gotten a little bit better than he was in the Broncos days. He's just a volume sponge and I don't really want to take a volume sponge at that spot. You've kind of convinced me off him. Not that I was going to take him because again, I'm not taking running backs in the third or fourth round. But of those guys, I was closer to Hayden on that. Like, yeah, I think he's at least a double. But if I listen to myself and think. How great is he actually as an NFL player? plus buy low, sell high. You are buying a little high on Javante. To me, I just don't hate him as much. Bucky Irving to me is a disastrous pick.

58:17That seems totally insane to me in that backfield. Does he even finish second or third in fantasy points on that team? I feel like that's possible. I'm not sure how good Bucky Irving is. I'm not sure how good that running game is going to be with Zach Robinson and everything. I don't like that pick whatsoever, just like I don't like the Scadaboo pick. The way that you put that together, though, of how fantasy is won, it's not by getting the RB12 value out of RB15. That's why you're the man. That's why people love the show. You're one of the best at what you do. Appreciate you, Josh. Of course, Greg.

58:58And most people that listen to the show go into it saying that they are on Hayden's side and they end it by saying they're on my side, just like you do. So I appreciate that. I love that you're taking shots at your co-host when he's not even here to defend him. We'll have to have Hayden on next time, too. We should. All right. That's not the last fantasy preview. I didn't look at this one as like the full scale. Everything you need to know. This was more just a few things. It's getting your takes off. This one's getting your takes off. Exactly. Well, and we got your takes along the way. And I think those were probably more valuable.

59:29So that's it. It's been a great week here at NFL Daily. We will be back. One of my favorite shows of the year is the preseason week two recap show. We are doing it live. Nick Shook and I, 8 p.m. Eastern, 5 p.m. Pacific. Check us out on YouTube. It's all 16 games. It's the preseason week that matters the most. There's going to be a lot of fun takeaways. We are so close to real football. We will see you then.

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