40s and Free Agents: Drafting The AFC's Super Bowl Winner

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1:26apply. See Optimum.com for details. From Taco Night in Tulum to sushi in Tokyo, make every bite rewarding with gold from Amex. Wherever you dine, four times the membership rewards points at restaurants worldwide are piling up. Learn more at AmericanExpress.com slash Explore-Gold. Terms and points cap apply. Welcome back to 40s and Free Agents. I am Greg Rosenthal, joined by Daniel Jeremiah, we are just days away from kickoff. DJ's getting on a plane to Brazil. But before 40s takes a little break, we're going to do something fun. You came up with this idea, DJ. We are going to draft the teams in the AFC and NFC, AFC in this show, that we believe are most likely to win the Super Bowl back and forth as our sort of season preview.

2:18Are you ready? I'm ready, man. by the way I'll take any tips because I know you were kind of the podcast of Europe for Europe so someone who's traveling on a long distance something that you've done a bazillion times going to Europe I'm going to Brazil any flight tips for me there oh well you private right you know DJ's got that like you've been here a long time we're on the team plane I'm in the back so I'm not in any special set up there. The time zone is not going to hit you in the face as hard, obviously, going down to Brazil. I am jealous, but I am going over to Dublin and London this year.

2:58I don't know if I've even said that. Of course you are. I am excited about that. But yeah, you know, turn your mind off a little bit. You've done enough prep. You're ready for that game, DJ. We're ready. I bought a very expensive pair of headphones because the gentleman that sits behind me on the team plane snores like a freight train. So I made that. That was a very expensive investment. We'll see if that pays off. That seems like a really wise investment. We didn't talk about like who gets the first pick, you know, and I just thought as the host of the show, I'm doing a little more work. I should get the first pick.

3:28So I'm just going to take it. I'm not going to that's you would expect me to be nice and just give it to you. I'm not giving the former Ravens employee a chance to take my number one overall pick. I want the Baltimore Ravens. They're my pick to win the whole thing. That's my spoiler. I just feel like it's time. You put it all together. There's no reason to me to think that this team is any worse than a year ago. I think they're the perfect combination of talent, youth, experience, veteran players, and then the second year under Zach Orr with the defensive coordinator. Try to find the big weakness in this roster.

4:02I think it's difficult to do so. I like the Baltimore Ravens as the most likely AFC team to win the Super Bowl. Is that your pick? You're such a jerk. um yeah i mean i just i i thought i thought it was just assumed that the guest would go first i just first of all your name's first on the on the marquee on the you know and it should be you know you get a bigger salary you're you're a bigger draw i think if you go back and listen to the intro to this podcast you'll hear that i am definitely listed second on there well when i when i'm saying it but um i like that this is already done this draft is already under protest already under protests one pick in we never discussed either by the way never even discussed beforehand never even part of it just an executive decision what a first class jerk um okay i would have done the same thing i would have taken baltimore with the first overall pick uh so now i'm in a little bit of a spot here this delights me so much i love it yeah because you know oh it's here he is greg's already he can't wait to to clip it off oh look the the voice of the chargers the analyst for the Chargers is going to take the Kansas City Chiefs with his first pick to win the AFC.

5:12But I'm not going to let you do that because I'm going to take Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills is finally, this is really a battle between Baltimore and Buffalo to see who can finally get over that hurdle, get past Kansas City, get to a Super Bowl. I'm going to say that this is the year that that actually happens. I'm going to go with the fighting Josh Allen's a team that when I was looking at just the roster construction and where they were, think about what they did last year. They won 13 games and they were defensively couldn't get much worse on third down. They were terrible on third down last year, 24th and past defense.

5:45Like those are bad. Like they, and they don't have to be a top five, top 10 group in those numbers. Like if they can just be middle of the pack, which I think they will be. And then hopefully my advice free of charge, just kind of let's ease Joey Bosa into this thing. Let's nurse him along and have him ready for the stretch run here where you can have some impact. I'm I'm going to say this is the year that the Buffalo Bills get over the hump. So I love that pick. And they were my AFC pick to make the Super Bowl a year ago. And they came up a game short. My concern, and I'm curious, because we didn't talk Ravens too much.

6:18I'm assuming based on how angry you were that you were going to take them first overall. I'm angry, just a lack of compassion and understanding from someone that now you confirmed, I thought, but now is confirmed someone that lacks both those characteristics. I just like that you called yourself a guest on the show that you co-host. It's, you know, I think that was telling. The difference, I think, between the Ravens and the Bills, as much as I agree with you on what you're saying on the defensive side of the Bills, that there's room for improvement there. And I think there's also room for concern, certainly, in their secondary.

6:52Even if you called that a wash, I think of the two outstanding offenses by both these teams, the two outstanding MVP candidacies by their two quarterbacks. the Bills offense is more likely to regress I think the Bills offense is a little more likely to regress they were pretty magical DJ a year ago is there any concern that maybe they just come back because even if they're like the 8th or 9th best offense they really were outstanding last year with maybe not the best group of wide receivers around Josh Allen look to me they just got to keep two guys healthy If Josh stays healthy and if Cook stays healthy, I think that's going to be enough.

7:35Josh, he's a freak show Superman. You know, Khalil Shakur is going to get his. I am kind of excited to see. I was around Josh Palmer with the Chargers, and he's not an elite level player, but he's a reliable, dependable guy. And I just think with Josh Allen, the level that he can play at and is now as advanced and developed as he is with his freaky talent, I think he elevates that group. I sure am hoping that this is the year that Dalton Kincaid delivers on the hype that I gave him before the draft, but we'll have to wait and see on that one. I was right there with you on Dalton Kincaid. I thought he was an incredible prospect, but yeah, that's partly why I like the Ravens a little better, like Isaiah Likely in a contract year, the depth of their receivers, the depth of their running backs.

8:14But yes, you gave me the absolute perfect start to my draft to take the Kansas City Chiefs. They would have been second on my list. No offense to the Bills fans. I don't have to worry about, you know, what the Chargers fans think or anything like that. It just feels to me like you put Patrick Mahomes with a improved offensive line. And I do think they will be improved with Josh Simmons there at left tackle and a group of wide receivers that's ultimately better than any group they've had since Tyreek Hill was on the team. You could even argue maybe better than than when Tyreek was there the last year because it was it was a steep drop up.

8:53I think Xavier Worthy is going to get a lot better in year two. I think Rasheed Rice did get a lot better in year two and that the Chiefs have the luxury of, I don't really care about the first six games of the season. That's not what this is about. The Chiefs are thinking about December and January. So his suspension doesn't hurt me at all. I love Hollywood Brown in a role that he doesn't have to be as big of a factor and they have some good speed even off the bench with Taequann Thornton and Juju's number five. He's obviously not the speed guy. You don't have to count too much on Kelsey. I just think it's really deep overall on the offensive side.

9:25and I think we get more explosive play out of Patrick Mahomes. We know what Steve Spagnuolo can do. There's a lot of continuity on the defense, so I feel really good. Everyone's bored of the Chiefs, but I think they're going to be more fun to watch this year than they have in a few years. Yeah, I've been lobbying for the Chiefs to just increase the fun factor. I made the line last year in the run-up for the draft, let's make the Chiefs fun again. They're winning, obviously. They're having success, but man, even as someone who's calling games for a rival inside the division, They were must watch.

9:54It was so much fun, the Tyreek Hill years. And then it's kind of just become a slog. There's been no air yards, just everything underneath. Let's get back to being a vertical passing attack. And I think Xavier Worthy is ready to kind of take that next step and can really add that element to this offense. So I'm hoping that's the case from a fan's perspective. All right, this next one, I've got several different ways I can go here. And I could play chicken, and I could say I won't take the charters because I don't think Greg will take them. he's going to go in a couple other directions and I could save them and then I can get them with my next pick but I'm going to do this just from a standpoint of absolute belief and confidence and not you know who's going to be there and try and manipulate the situation I would take the Chargers next and that's wow for me having a peek behind the curtain I think people forget this is the number one defense in the league last year in a defense when you looked at it you go okay Well, Khalil Mack's still playing a solid level, a high level.

10:50You've got Derwin James plays at an elite level. Deion Henley, I think, is a vastly underrated potential superstar linebacker. But you didn't have premier corners. Against the run last year, I think yards per carry, they were down towards the bottom of the league. So there were still areas that they can improve. Now they've got more depth at corner. They've added some big bodies to their defensive tackle group. So they've gotten a lot bigger there. They've got a lot of depth along that defensive group. I do think you're going to see Henley take a, he's going to be a, I think, pro bowler is underselling it.

11:22I think he's got a chance to be an all pro for them this year. So I'm very confident. I think Jesse Mentors is as good a defensive coach as we have in the league, even though he's in his second year with what he showed last year. So I'm bullish on this defense. And I know people are going to talk about Slater. Yes, you lost a pro bowl, all pro left tackle. You're going to replace him with a pro bowl, all pro tackle. Joe Alt looks better at left than he did at right. He looks very comfortable and confident. So you've got the hole now at the right tackle position with Pipkins. I've seen Justin Herbert in the past take a much less talented group to the postseason.

11:55I think they're going to be okay there. And the secret sauce that nobody – you've got a little glimpse of it, Greg, just a little taste of Amorian Hampton. But people don't know how good this kid is. He is going to be excellent. This is a team last year that was good, that was a playoff team, 11-win team, and I think they're better. you know winning the division is going to be a challenge with Kansas City there we'll see if they can push them but I think they're in the playoffs and I think they make some noise I'm gonna go to the Chargers I love that you are starting off the draft hot just admitting your biases saying you won't take the Chiefs because you're afraid and that you're taking the Chargers but no to be real your confidence here is giving me a little more confidence in the Chargers I love what you just said about nobody's talking about it's just Denver Denver Denver, Denver.

12:40And we're kind of forgetting about the charges a little bit through this thing. That's a good place to be for the chargers because as you know, year after year, after year, after year, they are the media preseason darling. And it's a good point. I didn't think about that, that this year, the Broncos have replaced them as the preseason darling. I had the chargers certainly higher than the Broncos would have been pretty high on my list. I do have them in the playoffs. You know, we're not making official playoff predictions. This is about who could win the Super Bowl. I think their ceiling is quite high, and I like everything.

13:13Sidebar, who's going to be the first team to blink and take another AFC East team? Go ahead. Who's going to be the first one to blink and do it? How long are we going to wait? It'll be a while. It'll be a little while. I did want to ask you, because you know so much about this team. You said you feel better about their defensive tackle spot after losing Kuna Ford, because the Rams think they've solved everything by getting Kuna Ford. Why is that? Why is that? Because they've done it with numbers and depth. they've got they've just got more guys they can roll through there and they're bigger they're more physical I found I was referencing the number they were 27th in yards per carry last year they play with those light boxes so Puna is a really good player a good individual player but I think they've gotten collectively bigger and there's a lot more depth there okay so I'm debating I'll put my cards on the table between the Texans and the Bengals and this is a most likely to win the Super Bowl, which is maybe a little, it's potentially different than, you know, where they finish in the standings.

14:09Like is, is the Bengals ceiling high enough that they should overtake a team that I ultimately feel is more complete? The Houston Texans, I'm going to say no, because the Houston Texans are just more likely to win their division, get a home game in the playoffs. And ultimately I, I trust the overall structure and foundation better. So I'm going to take the Houston Texans. I'm doing my work out loud as we speak. They have a quarterback that I believe is talented and smart enough and has the experience to be a Super Bowl quarterback. I think the system will take a little time to get going. But ultimately, I think the system and some of the talent, even if it's not huge names like Arante Urssery, you know, at left tackle now, will help their offensive line.

14:54And I just think it's about players, not just scheme. And man, the players on this defense are so freaking good. If you're looking for a defense that I think the Bills, the Chiefs, the Ravens, Bengals, anyone should be afraid of. And the Chargers know this well. It is the Houston Texans. So could I see them getting like a two or a three seed, only needing to win one road game, ripping off with a crazy defense on the road and making it to the Super Bowl? I can see that. And I'm taking the Houston Texans. Yeah, that would have been my pick. So I can't I can't besmirch your choice there. That was the most dominant defense I saw in that playoff game last year against the Chargers.

15:33And it was just overwhelming. And they especially at home. And you bring up a great point where they're, you know, of all the teams you feel the most confident about winning their division. I would say Buffalo would be number one on the list of teams that I'm very confident is going to win their division. And in the AFC, I would put Houston at number two, even ahead of Baltimore. more. I just feel like there's such a gap between them and everybody else in that division. They're going to be at home there in the postseason. I get that pick. I'm going to pick the one that you left out, and that's Cincinnati.

16:03Maybe I'm going to buy into this whole, let's get nice and loosened up and limbered up in the preseason. Let's get Joe Burrow a lot of action out there where it looked like it was a father-son picnic game out there watching Joe Burrow and all their starters just destroy all the backup players they were playing against in the preseason. But hey, if they get off to a decent start, we know what this offense is capable of. The defense just, it's just a law of averages. They can't be that bad. And I don't think it was Lou Anarumo's fault by any stretch, but I do think you bring in Al Golden as someone who can work with younger players, which are going to rely a lot on.

16:41They got the Trey Hendrickson deal done. Last year, it was kind of just a mess and they won nine games. This is talent-wise, offensively, this team could carry them to 11, 12 wins. So I got warmed up for this show last week with my friend, maybe our friend. I don't know if you know Nick Wright. We did the over-under win totals. We were going through some teams with that and he was on the underside and I ultimately agreed with him. He wouldn't have been, they wouldn't have been a team I felt strongly about. There is something there and I hate that this is just part of my thinking organizationally that like the foundation of it, there's something just Bengals-y that I don't trust.

17:23That it could crumble a little bit, that the defensive talent just isn't good enough. I don't think that will happen. They would have been my pick, as I said, but I just think they're a higher variance. I think we've gone through what I would consider the big six in the AFC, where it's going to be a big disappointment for any of these teams if they don't make the playoffs. But to me, of these teams, the Bengals are easily the most likely team not to make the playoffs. I just think more things can go wrong, even though their ceiling is higher. So we get to the seventh pick. I say there's a big six.

17:53Will Broncos fans take that as an insult? They probably will. But not as much as a pick I'm going to make over the Broncos next because... You're going to take the Steelers. I can see it in your eyes. I am actually. You're right. See, you are. This exercise... I am. You nailed it. This exercise is different. So the exercise is who could make the Super Bowl. Is it who can make it? who can win it? I don't know who can win the Superbowl. There's only one winner in this and we have two drafts and there will be one winner. And it's just simply which team wins the Superbowl. Okay. I think if it's just winning the Superbowl, as much as I don't personally believe in Aaron Rogers as the solution to get this thing going, I obviously don't know what the heck's going to happen.

18:36And I think if you're looking at the ceiling and the variance and the talent and the coaching staff and the young offensive line that I don't think people are talking enough about where they're really excited about really young players throughout their offensive line. I think left tackle Broderick Jones is the big question mark that they're given a chance to, but the upside for that offensive line, I think is quite high. The front sevens top to bottom, probably the best in the entire NFL. We love the coaching. You bring in Jalen Ramsey. There is a lot to like if Rogers can just be anywhere near like confident and just hanging in the pocket a little longer, win from the neck up, but also make a few more plays with his legs and be the old Aaron Rodgers.

19:19It all comes together and they make the Super Bowl. I think they have a higher ceiling than the Denver Broncos and some of the other teams left. Yeah, I would have gone, again, I hate agreeing with you, but I would have gone in that direction. You haven't really strayed from my list of how I have these teams stacked. The thing I would point out, the Steelers, and I think we've had this conversation before, is if you look at what they've done in the offseason with DK Metcalf at receiver, Caleb Johnson at running back. Then you go Derek Harmon and YA Black on the defensive front, Jack Sawyer on the edge.

19:51This has been a physicality-based offseason. They've gotten bigger. They've gotten more physical. They've kind of gotten back to who they are as the Pittsburgh Steelers. So I love what they've done. I saw a stat the other day, too. I think this is the third year in a row that all the draft picks made the team. They've done a really good job of picking players over the last couple years. and I'm bullish on that. It comes down to Aaron, like how well he plays as he stays healthy in terms of the ceiling. I think they have a very high floor. I don't envision a year where they win. 9-10 wins, I think they woke up this morning with 9 or 10 wins and however Aaron Rodgers plays determines where they go from there.

20:30Wow, we disagree there. I do think there's variance where it could go sideways. But yeah, in a league where everyone's going two tight ends, the Steelers will top you. They got three or four of them that they can put out there and they can match it. I love Mount Washington. They play with an extra tackle. Washington is, he's playing, he's the third tackle. And I don't know, I mean, Greg is, you know, he's clearly allergic to the sun while Mike Tomlin's allergic to a losing season. So, I mean, there's no way this team is under 500. What is that, like a lighting take there? The lights shining on you, little pop there.

21:06We got to lower that heat on that light a little bit. Or no, what makes it warm you up? Would that be more light? I'm not going in the sun. All right, you're going to wrap up the first half of this draft with the eighth pick. And then we're going to take a break. I'm taking Denver. I think the defense is going to be awesome. We talked about it in terms of one of my favorite players in the draft, Jaday Barron. And like, shoot, I don't know exactly what his role is going to be. Like, they got to squeeze him in because they have so much talent in their secondary. And, you know, he can play in the nickel.

21:40He can play outside, but they have got embarrassment or riches. They have a lot of speed in their front seven. They're very well coordinated and coached. And it's year two, Sean Payton with Bo Nix. I was talking to Bucky about this the other day. If you were looking at offensive mind-wise, you know, who are the two guys, the two coaches you would point to over the last, you know, 15 years? In terms of longevity and success, it's Andy Reid and Sean Payton. And I do find it fascinating. if both of those guys have built their offenses inside out, you know, with, with, you know, tight ends, you know, look at slot receivers, running backs with Sean Payton, obviously Kelsey, that offense has gone through him, you know, for, for a decade here.

22:21So, um, I think Sean Payton's kind of got the personnel that he likes. And I think from a fantasy standpoint, if you're, if you're, uh, if you haven't had your fantasy draft yet, take Evan Ingram, Evan Ingram is going to have a monster season in this system. That's great news. My son took him. So I like that call. And when you say from the inside out to, you know, Sean Payton just loves paying those guards in New Orleans, developing those guards. And he's done the exact same in Denver. They are great from the inside out. Yeah, I'm not I'm not like I had the Broncos actually written down ahead of the Steelers.

22:53And then when I thought about it, I I'm not there yet. I'm just I'm just not there enough to see Bo Nix winning a Super Bowl, maybe he'll prove me wrong. And so I think the ceiling is just a little bit lower. We're going to take a quick break. We'll be back with the rest of the AFC draft.

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