40s and Free Agents: Drafting The NFC's Super Bowl Winner

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1:39You won't think it has up to 19 grams of protein, 11 to 32 grams of fiber, or just 0 to 5 grams net carbs. But it does. Hero Bread. No compromises. Just loaves, buns, tortillas, bagels, and noodles packed with flavor. Right now, get 10 % off at Hero.co with code IHART. That's H-E-R-O dot C-O, code IHART. All figures per serving of Hero Bread. See nutrition facts on Hero.co. We have come to the end of the road on 40s and free agents. And by that, I mean it's the start of the regular season. And at the end of these little preseason shows we've been doing Daniel Jeremiah, I'm Greg Rosenthal. We're going to draft the NFC teams most likely to win the Super Bowl.

2:24And you kind of gave away at the end of our last episode where you're going first. Like, that's not good showmanship. We already know what you're going to do. Yeah, I don't think it's a mystery, but I do appreciate you acquiescing and actually giving me the first pick after snatching the first pick in the AFC without any prior discussion. I mean, I thought we had bosses. I guess we don't. Greg gets to make all the rules around here. But it's fine. It's only fair. We each get the first pick in one of the conferences. No, I actually would rather have the first pick in the NFC. So I'm very comfortable and confident going with the repeat winner here in the Philadelphia Eagles with my first overall selection.

3:01And again, to reiterate, if you haven't listened to the previous episode, the criteria here is literally confetti falling, winning a Super Bowl. There's only going to be one winner. We've done two pods. We did the AFC. This is the NFC. It's just who can win the Super Bowl. You get no bonus points for having more wins, having more teams. It doesn't matter. It's one. It's just one team that can win the Super Bowl. And I'm going to go with the team that did it last year, a team that I can make a strong argument. The defense is going to be even better this year as they incorporate all these young pieces, all these young key players.

3:35They're fast. They've got depth. Secondary, OK, you know, just in terms of the depth there, maybe a little bit of a concern at corner. But I think their front seven's dynamic and offensively, they've got weapons galore. And you've got talent and coaching, Greg. When you've got talent and coaching, you're in a pretty good spot. Howie Roseman talked about it last week, how the difference between this team and, you know, when they were defending last time around or even when, you know, coming off the Super Bowl loss, like they're just so much younger. It's crazy how young they're hungry. They're just their defense has so much room to grow.

4:15It's one of the youngest defenses to combine the playoff experience and the talent and the youth on the defense is really special. and I can't hate on that pick. You made me think though, okay, we're only trying to get the Super Bowl winner, right? There can only be one winner. But if this is a game, you know, there needs to be something on the line. What if the winner, whoever gets the Super Bowl champion between these two drafts, gets to put their name first on the little background, you know, 40s and free agents. Right now it says with Daniel Jeremiah and Greg Rosenthal. So you're the home team.

4:51Does it really? Yeah, it does. And so if I got the right Superbowl winner, then it says Greg first. I don't know. What are you looking at? By the way, look at that. I'm looking at the graphic that they put up on every one of our shows. And if you go to Apple podcast, it's forties and free agents. Oh, and they, and it says, yeah. Oh, actually does say Greg. What are you doing? What happened? Are you sober? Like there's never been anything where I've been listed ahead of you. And because I'm a decent, humble human being it doesn't affect me it doesn't bother me you've been complaining about something that never happened never existed i'm not complaining i think it makes sense our producer drew is laughing at me in my face they should flip that around i promise you if you look at the graphics that they've been using behind me when i'm in the studio i happen to be home it's flipped and it should be you know you've earned that dj you know you turned down all those NFL teams that wanted you to work for them for a reason to stay and be the man at NFL network.

5:55And we're all trying to draft on you. I will accept, I accept the bet by the way, I accept the bet because in this scenario, if Greg wins, it's exactly as it's always been. If I win, I get to flip and have my name on top. So there's literally a no lose situation for me in this bet that you've just concocted. I think it just shows, you know, how humble I am that I I didn't realize my name was first this whole time. I'm so glad that you took the Eagles. They weren't my number one pick. My NFC pick to make the Super Bowl this year is the Detroit Lions. I just think they're the best roster top to bottom.

6:30Eagles are right there. I know the schedule is tougher, so it's not about the seeding. I do think in a timeline of a team building process, there are certain years you're more likely to do it. I think the Lions have been leading up to this moment. They really were last year, but the injuries were just crazy. I like the additions they made on defense. I think the upside for their defense improving is so great. They already were a top 10 defense last year in DVOA, despite all those injuries last year. And so if you combine a really difference-making defense with that offense, I'm not as worried about Ben Johnson.

7:07I think they win the NFC this year. It is the Detroit Lions time. so brain drain you're not buying into that with the coordinators gone both of them you know no i think people make too big of a deal out of coordinators not that they're not great coaches of course they're great coaches but don't you think dan campbell's really good at picking the right coaches and developing coaches kelvin shepherd's been there for a while he knows john morton like i trust dan campbell to uh have picked the right guys in terms of that philosophy I believe Mac Jones just threw something at the screen. Well, Bill Belichick wasn't.

7:45Okay. I like that comp. How I'll compare it to is Dan Campbell is closer to the young Bill Belichick who that's when they're all coming up and he's got, he knows the rest of the league. I'm not talking about head coach. I'm talking about Josh McDaniels. I get that. So what I'm saying is Dan Campbell is like the young Belichick. When everyone was so worried, how could you ever replace Romeo Cornell and Charlie Weiss, you know, and they left and the operation still kept, kept rolling. Now, look, I, Detroit is loaded. I am excited for Aiden Hutchinson. I hope he stays healthy. I think people forgot how great he was before he got hurt and we'll see if he ends up, you know, cashing in, which he should provided he's, he shows that he's healthy.

8:26He's one of the premier players and a, how about that draft by the way, looking back on that. And everybody was, I mean, I was Aiden Hutchinson and then Trayvon Walker that, So I had Hutchinson, then Walker Walker goes ahead of Hutchinson. But all of a sudden now it was one of those debates that was kind of just put to rest and put to bed because Aiden Hutchinson has been so awesome. But we've mentioned it on the AFC episode. Trayvon Walker just keeps getting better and better and better. Turns out both really, really good players. I agree. And yet there's still no debate to me. I mean, no, I mean, I feel like it wasn't a with everyone would love him.

9:00Yeah, I agree with you. So, all right. So you go Detroit there. All right, I've got a lot of interesting choices at my disposal. Matthew Stafford's health is a big factor here. Whether or not he's healthy determines whether or not I'm going to pick him. I know Washington in the championship game last year. I love Tampa Bay's physicality. You've got a new quarterback in Minnesota. I think there's a lot more intrigue here in the NFC than in the AFC. I'm going to bet on Stafford's health. I'm going to go with the Rams here. And just because the defense, that front is so physical and so dynamic, the offensive line, they can they can they're going to be able to run the ball.

9:43I hope I hope they let all these running backs get rolling. I think they have a stable of backs. Kyron Williams has been kind of the lead guy, but I think they can they can keep him fresh and they can roll guys through there. And the day I was at practice, we've mentioned it before. I can't get it out of my head watching Devontae Adams just carve up the Dallas Cowboys in those joint practices. I think he's going to have a monster year. I think it's a great debate if you're going to say who has a bigger year between him and Puka Nakua. Wow. I'm actually leaning towards I think Devontae could end up having a bigger year, which is a power statement.

10:16I realize that, but I can't get it out of my head. I went to that practice and every ball was going to him and nobody could cover him. So I'm bullish on the Rams. I love that because yeah we're only a few days away from the season starting but if you haven't drafted your fantasy league that that's a reason to draft Devante Adams higher than he's going because the average person would say what are you talking about Puka is going to have a much bigger year he's like a first round type of fantasy pick but everything you hear in the third round and there's 14 guys in the league I think I had the what pick was 10 maybe I went I think I went neighbor neighbors, Brian Thomas, Jr., Devontae Adams.

10:57I just went three wide outs right off the shoot. I love that. And I do like you taking the Rams here because in terms of potential to win a Super Bowl, you obviously need every a lot of things to go right. And yet their ceiling does seem extraordinarily high. Yes. I mean, like it could go wrong. We all know the quarterback injury. But for this exercise, they make sense there. And yet they were the wrong pick. I don't know if you know that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. they would have been a better pick. I love Tampa. Just, just so talented. Just sometimes an organization deserves to be rewarded for the team building process.

11:32So to me, they're very similar to Detroit in that if you're just lining up their offensive lines and, and now I think you look at the defensive line for the bucks too. And I think it's going to be better than it was in previous years with Hassan Redick and that the smart moves that they have made in the draft, you already see Jacob Parrish, their rookie cornerback, is going to be a factor this year. I think Todd Bull's defense is going to be better. Just all throughout the roster, to me, there's depth, there's players built in if you have injuries. I just think Jason Light has done one of the best jobs of any GM in the NFL.

12:05The question for both the Bucs and the Lions is like, can you imagine Baker with the confetti falling on his head? Can you imagine Jared Goff? I know he's gotten close before, you don't love that you don't have one of the guys at quarterback. And yet it's not, it's a team game. We saw Jalen Hurts, you know, lead one of the best offensive performances we've ever seen in the final two rounds last year. And so I think Baker Mayfield could do that. And I love getting the bucks here. All right, Greg, I'm up next full disclosure. I already made this pick, but I'm having to make it again because I made the pick.

12:39I picked the Green Bay Packers because I'm excited about the Green Bay Packers. I made that pick before, I would say, what, two hours before we ended up getting news that the Green Bay Packers have a new edge rusher in Micah Parsons. So I'm still getting the same wonderful draft pick. I'm going to insert some new fresh analysis in there because now I look even smarter for getting them at this point in time because they pulled off the trade for Micah Parsons. And by the way, if you missed our reaction, our immediate reaction to that, We have a pod that we put up right afterwards where you can hear us break this thing down from both the Packers side of things and the Cowboys side of things.

13:13But this is a Green Bay Packer team that realizes this is the go time. They went out and spent money in free agency. They go out and get banks big time. Guard pay them a ton of money. That was an aggressive move. They take a wide receiver in Matthew Golden for the first time in forever. That was a bold move. And they make the trade for Micah Parsons to give them the most athletic front seven in the NFL. Another bold move. and they clearly for me passed the confetti test. What's the confetti test? I can see them on the stage, confetti falling, Jordan Love hoisting a trophy. I think that's a legit possibility.

13:44You know, Mad Dog Russo voice like, good job by you, DJ. But I wouldn't change anything. I think this totally makes sense. And now I agree with you. They passed that test for me. I had a problem seeing that defense as a potential Super Bowl champion, but I would still take the Bucs ahead of them. I would still take the Lions ahead of him. It's really close with the Bucs. But to me, we didn't even hurt the integrity of the draft because my picks would have stayed the same. Your pick just looks pretty good with Michael Parsons. It looks a little bit better right now, so we'll take it. I'm taking the Vikings next.

14:19Let's go. First of all, Jordan Love, he better get back to the playoffs. So the last memory of us, of him in the playoffs, is in him throwing one of the worst interceptions I've ever seen against the Eagles. I know it was a tough situation, but people kind of. I choose to remember the game at Dallas previous. No, he was a year. Yeah, he was good. But that was that was unfortunately that the interception it reminded me of a little bit is Brett Favre in the NFC championship game. Oh, no, just which is so unfortunate because that was, I think, in the short list of the best Brett Favre games of all time.

14:55Completely overmatched. No protection in front of them. all guts and they outplayed the saints for most of that game and he was throwing dimes but it ended with a tragic interception back to the vikings we've seen young quarterbacks without a lot of experience you know make it far in the playoffs before without before they're like fully formed as a as a great passer tom brady's one but like jalen hurts was you know the first time and that offense was ready to win the super bowl a couple years ago it was a defense that let them down that day. I don't expect the offense for the Vikings to be that good.

15:29This would be closer to the 01 Patriots model where you're counting on the defense. But I do think J.J. McCarthy can succeed in that style of team where he builds slowly throughout the course of the season and you're getting the best, most efficient play out of J.J. McCarthy late and that the talented defense just carries them. I think they are that good. I think they combine talent and scheme in a way that maybe no other defense does in the NFL. And so that defense is good enough that I can just imagine that defense being good enough to win a bunch of playoff games and get them to the Super Bowl.

16:05Yep. I'm a, you're not going to find a bigger fan of Kevin O 'Connell than, than me. So I just, to me, I just got to see it a little bit with JJ. I just, I need to see it. That's why they're proof of concept here. So they're the sixth team off the board. I'm going to go to Washington with my next pick a team that was one step away from being in the Super Bowl last year, obviously way ahead of schedule in Jaden Daniels' rookie year. By all accounts, he's continued to improve and grow from what we saw last year, which is how fast he's playing, how quick he's seeing things. What they did on third downs last year with him as a rookie is ridiculous.

16:39That's a great sign of something that's going to be sustainable, and not to that extent with the percentage they were at last year. But he's got the ability to extend drives. He's got the ability to make plays, make things happen. Terry getting his deal done is good for them. get that all finalized and situated. They've upgraded the tackles via free agency and the draft. The secondary, I think is going to be better this year. Now the question is, you know, in terms of them getting to the Super Bowl, it's pretty simple defensively against the run. And you know who you got to play inside that division to get where you want to go.

17:12So that's going to be the challenge. They've added some new faces in there. They've tried to get bigger. But that's my one question mark why they were still on the board here is that is their ability to stop the run. But I still would have to go Washington. Yeah, it's been an interesting journey with them this offseason because I kind of expected them to be the team that everyone in our neck of the woods, the media, like the national media, like expects to take a big step back. And I do. And I am part of that. I do ultimately think if someone is going to, it's going to be them. But that really hasn't been the case.

17:43I've seen a lot of optimism. The analytics, like the digging under the hood numbers, places like like FTN, where football, they all love the commanders. Vegas kind of loves the commanders. A lot of people believe that they can take the next step. Obviously, it's a good pick value-wise this deep in the draft. I just think what they had last year was so unique. And it's such a weird team build that the guys they brought in, you said you thought the Packers were kind of making decisions as if they're one piece away. The commanders are bringing in a lot of pieces where they feel like they are close to getting it done.

18:19And maybe that just speaks to a... Well, they've had to stopgap. They've had to make so many roster moves two years in a row because they're trying to make up for all the years of poor drafting. So that that speaks to a depth on the roster that I'm not in love with. And that I don't think is the case with what is the best bargain in this entire draft, taking the San Francisco 49ers eighth overall. I have a really hard time having a hard take high, you know, a big take on the NFC West. I just don't know. It does seem a little crazy to me that the 49ers have the same over under win total as Detroit in Vegas.

18:55It's 10 and a half wins. A lot of that is schedule, but a lot of that is the players that have been there and the history of success that Kyle Shanahan has that if he has a healthy quarterback or a healthy team, like they make the NFC championship game and there are still great players on this team and he is still a great coach. So to get San Francisco here, they need a lot of things to come together on the defensive side for that all to work. Maybe Robert Salah can can cook up his magic. They're counting on him to make up for a lot. But to get them here, I mean, they could easily be a top five offense in the league.

19:30And I'm always picking with offense. Yeah, I'm curious to see just the receiver group, how that how that all comes together, especially missing Ayuk for a chunk here. So that's my concern. And I just feel like there's three people, I should say, obviously the quarterback. But then if you look at Trent Williams and Nick Bosa, those guys have got to stay healthy. McCaffrey, you could put in that mix as well. But I feel like if any one of these guys, kind of like the old Damoshek Jenga piece, it could go south. So they're going to rely on some players, some of them older, some of them with a history of injuries, staying healthy.

20:06I don't think the depth of this roster is anywhere near what it was in their run. I think that's fair, but that's why I like him for this exercise. It's all about everything is going to go right. Upside. Yeah. Upside. And you mentioned the receivers just for what it's worth. You know, Kittle is, is essentially their number one receiver. Ricky Pierce. McCaffrey is going to, I think, can get a lot better. McCaffrey's there. And then in a world where they do win the Superbowl, like Brandon Iuke is contributing and helping by the end of this season, certainly. And I have never believed that they're going to trade Juwan Jennings.

20:39it's been this weird standoff and then suddenly like that that's a good group of receivers ultimately if you have all those guys out there let's take a quick break and we will come back so in the afc man that back eight was rough i think it's more interesting there's still some good pieces here i know some interesting picks back in a minute

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24:39And yeah, you guys are curious. You know, the bigwigs. They love this show, DJ. I love doing this show. They love the numbers on this show. So we appreciate everyone that has been listening. They wanted to get as much as possible. And we got busy schedules. You're the draft guy. And we're only going to be popping in here and there during the season. We'll show up quarterly for a little catch up on where the draft is standing, some of the veteran stuff. And during the regular season, that's where we'll be at. But we will be back doing 40s and free agents earlier in the offseason and earlier in the draft and free agency season than we were a year ago.