40s and Free Agents: Offseason Preview for Eliminated AFC Teams

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2:14Come on now, pay the girls some attention and take the time to find out your breast cancer risk at your attention, please.com. Trust me, your future self will thank you. Welcome to 40s and free agents. I'm Greg Rosenthal with Daniel Jeremiah. It's the podcast that is marching towards player acquisition season, free agency trades, and of course, the NFL draft. And to set you up, we are going to talk about all the teams not in the playoffs in the AFC and had more changes on Monday with Buffalo Bills changing their head coach. DJ, you had a theory about why these coaching moves have happened in mass in this season that I thought was really smart.

3:00Yeah, I think everybody was in this neighborhood in their house and they felt good about their house and they felt good about themselves. And then what happened was the biggest house on the end of the cul-de-sac, the big mansion, it's up for sale. and everybody started saying, well, maybe my house isn't so good. I want to get in there because that was the Chiefs who've run this neighborhood for so long and kind of been a reason why a lot of people have been content just saying, well, that's an insurmountable force right now. And so we're having good years. We're getting in the tournament. We're a successful team.

3:33And now it's like, well, wait a second. We could have everything. It's all out there. There's no roadblock for us. So it's created this urgency and this pressure that I don't know that existed previously. I think that to me, when you have the top dog and it was New England forever, and then that became available, then there wasn't any gap because the Chiefs immediately took that over from them. I don't think right now, even with the teams we have left, and if you could make a case with Seattle, maybe more so because they have a younger quarterback, how much longer staff are going to play. You can make a case maybe Seattle could be ready to go on that type of a run, but it doesn't feel like that seat is filled.

4:11And I think that's one of the reasons that we've seen so much turnover. Yeah, I do buy it. And maybe you look this year, too, and think, well, if we didn't do it this year, what are we doing? And yeah, you're right. If you think about the coaches, Vrabel in his first year with the Patriots, Sean Payton in his third year with the Broncos, Mike McDonald in his second year. Ben Johnson almost beat Sean McVay, who's now like the old tenured head coach that is still alive. Ben Johnson in his first year. So why not make a change? And I know it's a good analogy for you because no one has like upgraded houses as those NFL network checks have been coming in more than you over the years.

4:47I'm still renting here. I'm, I'm just a humble servant, you know, a podcaster. I'm just, I'm just, just trying to make sure the trash cans get up to the curb. That's all I'm trying to do here. Okay. Okay. So we are going to go through all the teams in the AFC, just kind of big picture looking at all the teams and what they are going to be looking to. We'll keep it fast moving through all the teams. We'll start with the teams in the playoffs. Why don't you get us going? Yeah, I'm going to, I'm going to rip through here. I'm going to go with Houston to start out. and you look at them in the offseason let's start first of all i always do with the draft they've got the three picks there that they have in the top three rounds 28 38 59 uh 38 i believe was the tunsel trade um which gave them washington's second round pick they are uh under uh the cap here they are they are over the cap i should say 8.2 million dollars over right now so we got to sort some of that stuff out in terms of needs and focus um obviously we're going to start by the end of the season?

5:45I mean, the QB discussion, does it take place? I don't think you extend Stroud. I don't think you want to look. He hasn't played great for the last two years. It wasn't this isn't just an overreaction of two, you know, mediocre turnover prone playoff games. I don't think it's enough to say, OK, we're going to go in another direction. But I also don't think that you can ignore it and say we're going to lock him in long term. I think you ride that thing out. They need to upgrade the interior of the offensive line. This is one of those things you just kind And this is it's rumor season a little bit now.

6:17So I look, I don't know how much you put into this, but with all the young receivers they drafted last year, there is talk in league circles. When you start talking about guys, you would try and go after in trades. I think teams are going to at least try and call on Nico. I do think they will try and go. They'll try and call. Wow. But I mean, that's just, that's just, you know, the rumors you hear talking around in the league. This is why we got DJ on 40s and free agents. I think they'd be crazy to trade Neal Collins, but it is not crazy to call and just ask. Yeah. I mean, I sometimes worry about him because so much of the production that he had this season was the exact play that he got concussed on in the wildcard round.

6:58Him just getting thrown into really brutal windows and him making tough catches. I thought he was absolutely awesome this year, but man, they put him through it in terms of the physicality that he has to play with. With Stroud, I think it's easy. look, he's up for his fifth year option. You do that. If they really do believe in him, you could potentially get a little bit of a discount on him by showing that you believe in him right now. So I don't think, I honestly don't think that's that crazy if they truly believe in him. I do believe in him enough to do that. Looking at their, their cap sheet, look, they're, they're pretty set on defense in general.

7:34Like, of course you're always tinkering. It's just crazy. I like the roster. It's all about the offensive line. You can cut Joe Mixon. You can cut Mario Edwards. That frees up 13, 15 million dollars right there. But probably their best guard this year was was Ingram and he's a free agent. And so it's just continue to push money there in on the offensive line. Yeah, no, it's a it's a team that is very singularly focused or should be singularly focused on the offensive side of the ball. They are good to go defensively. Do you want me to keep going? When are you going to know? I'll go. I'll go with the Buffalo Bills.

8:06They are 11 million dollars over in cap space. We had an emergency. Sean McDermott, you know, is out episode with Ali Connelly that went up on Monday. It'll be interesting where they go in terms of their head coaching hire. Obviously, you want someone that's going to maximize Josh Allen. Is it an old friend of Josh Allen? Is it just elevating Joe Brady? Like, we'll see there. They actually have a lot of free agents that are important to think about. both their starting guards. I know you mentioned to me, you thought David Edwards could get a good contract and free agency. A lot of the old guard McDermott guys who you figure are maybe on their way out.

8:44Milano, AJ Epinesa is a younger player. Joey Bosa had a rough end to what was a really good free agency season, but that was a one year deal for him. And then some of the guys you just brought back in at the last second, like Poyer and Tredavious White. So you could see a lot of changes there. uh Dawson Knox is another guy whose cap number is really big and look they're gonna have to fill those guard spots I think they need some outside receivers clearly and and a new vision for what this defense is gonna be yeah I mean look I I look at that receiver position and just you've got you've you gotta go get somebody man you've gotta get somebody to help Khalil Shakir is a nice player they've got two solid tight ends but i just i the windows shrink this windows shrink in the postseason and you need guys who can make those combat catches physical um a presence a red zone guy to me that's got to be a direction that they look yeah they're a team look they need some reimagining but when i looked at the roster i i don't think it's as in as bad shape as as people think it's a it's a lot of spots where you got like one or two guys you need one more but you're not like building from from the ground up you're very good at running back solid at tight end so i i don't think it's a full rebuild which obviously uh makes sense the the this next coach is going to have to make the super bowl in his first three years or else him and bean are going to be out it's it's like the highest i don't even know if he gets i don't know if he gets the third year i think right it might be two years so you you got to win fast pressure is on brandon bean all right i'm going to go next here i'm going to go with pittsburgh um this is one of the more interesting ones looking at it as someone who's a draft guy they have 12 picks in this draft so in the first three rounds greg 21 53 76 85 99 they've got a lot of picks they can work with um this is a team that's got 29 almost 30 million in salary cap space you're going to start with the quarterback situation it doesn't sound like Aaron Rodgers will be back there so they're back in that market.

10:47Wide receiver adding help there as well. I mean, DK, obviously, the two-game suspension didn't help at the end of the year, but they were able to get around that but need another guy there. And then, really, I just put the secondary all the way across the board. That secondary has to be much better. I think they've done a really good job drafting on the line of scrimmage, offensive lineman, defensive lineman in the last couple years. They've got good young players there, a lot of talent, but they need to get better on the perimeter and they need to find the quarterback. And I could make a case if I just laid out an off-season plan for you here and I'll get the Rosenthal opinion on it.

11:18All these 12 picks. I want to take at least two of these picks. I mean, you could take two third-round picks. I'm getting ammunition at 27. And people always say, everybody always talks about the next quarterback draft class. And I'm like, well, I'm telling you, this quarterback draft class is not great. And there are going to be bona fide dudes next year. Not that long ago, we saw six quarterbacks go in the top 12. I'm not saying it's to that extreme, but there's going to be talent there. and if I were them, I wouldn't force the young quarterback this year. I would try and get some assets for next year.

11:49Bring in your new head coach. It might be a situation where, God forbid, they might have a losing season next year, something that they don't ever, never had under Mike Tomlin, but it might be for the greater good, if that makes sense. That does make sense, but we're burned here. I'm just a normie DJ following the draft from afar, listening to people like you until we get really close to it. And I've heard that the last three years. Oh, the next one's going to be better at quarterback. Oh, the next one's going to be good. Yeah, we've been in it. We had a monster year. What happens is it's like anything else.

12:22When you have that year where you get the six guys, last year was not as good. This year, it's very similar to last year, and I would say maybe not even as good as last year. So we had that peak. We have a couple down years, and I think we're headed back next year. I really do. Saw a good stat that more quarterbacks from this class have won games. You know, it's Bo Nix, it's Drake May, it's Caleb Williams in the playoffs. Jaden Daniels in the conference championship game the year before. Right, in the first two years of their career than any quarterback draft class in like 30-something years. And Caleb was very close to breaking that record in that Rams game.

13:01I don't think the Steelers have nearly as big a rebuild as people think. They have good young players on the line of scrimmage. That's a good place to start. And and the guys on the front seven on defense, which are so good, like you're not just going to cut these guys. They're good players. The contracts aren't that crazy. They have cap space. Jalen Ramsey's one guy where, you know, his his cap figure might out outweigh how much value he's giving them. But for the most part, like it's it's a solid enough roster. They certainly need another wide receiver. You know what? when you have this many like just look at 53 take the first round pick out of it 53 76 85 99 you know you find in between 53 and 99 you can find corners you can find receivers um you can find uh safeties that's that's a sweet spot for where their needs are because the you know the high ticket items you know outside of the quarterback position you're talking about you know those those offensive lines offensive tackles edge rushers like they're in pretty good spot in all those spots so the The Chargers are a team I was surprised was assigned to me.

14:04I guess I like it because I wanted to get an outside. I don't want an inside out looking like I thought Drew just thought like, actually, DJ doesn't really know his stuff when it comes to 80 million dollars in cap space. I mean, most, I believe more than they know what to do with the Patriots are up there looking for a new offensive coordinator. I've had some very interesting interview requests, Dable, Brian Callahan, Mike McDaniel. So we'll just see where that Arthur Smith, see where that ends up. The free agents are as good a list as any team has in the league, unfortunately for the charges though.

14:37So they're going to have to spend money to keep these guys. Cleo Mack considering retirement again, a Dafa away who came in, tear tart had a great year for them. Zion Johnson came through for them this year. I listened to this chargers podcast. Sometimes guilty as charged. They did, they did a top, top 10 chargers for the season. Well, there's four of them. So those guys are guys they're going to have to try to keep and also offensive line, offensive line, offensive line. I would think on the interior especially would be big. Yeah, I think rebuilding the interior of the offensive lines, number one, without question.

15:13You get the two tackles back. I think you have to, whether it's with a draft pick, which you can do with third round pick to say we're going to take a swing. And we're going to get a quality swing tackle because you have to have some insurance. Because Slater has had some injuries here, and that's a tough injury he's coming back from. I think all it's going to be fine coming back. But just maybe some young insurance at the tackle spot. But rebuilding the interior of that offensive line. I would also say on the to-do list, I mean, Tui Piloto is eligible for an extension coming off of a monster year.

15:45He's 23 years old. You know, elite character. Great dude. so I think those three pass rushers and I think in a perfect world they figure out a way to pay all of them to get Khalil to come back for one more year I think he's got value still and then you know away I think he ended up with seven or eight sacks he didn't have any with the Ravens he made himself some money he made some money whether it's with the Chargers or not he made some money it'll be interesting to see what they decide on Keenan Allen To me, that's a fascinating one because Herbert, I think he was the most targeted receiver this year.

16:22Well, a lot of those targets came from Ladd McConkie. And while Keenan was able to convert a lot of those third downs, Ladd would provide a lot more explosiveness with those targets. So it'd be interesting to see what they decide to do there. But when you look at where they are with skill players, young skill players, all on rookie deals, all cheap, they're in a great spot to be able to make some noise in the offseason. When you have that much cap space, you don't really need to make cuts. but since I've got you here, do you think they'll cut McKay Becton after? Yeah, there's no, I would be shocked beyond shocked if he's back next year.

16:55Okay. This is, this is why, uh, it's why you listen to forties and free agency. I wouldn't have known that I'm going to put them on my list. You know what? Hey honey, people like those articles. Let's go for a jog. You want to go shopping today? No, no, no, no, no, no, Forties and free agents is out. And they're going to let me know if McKay Becton is going to be back with the chargers. Put that on hold. You, you underrate, uh, in the weeds our listeners want to go all right you're up next um all right i'm up next i'm gonna go we're outside the playoffs now so i'm gonna go vegas vegas has 10 picks only two in the first three rounds so 30 or sorry no they have all three 136 and 67 so they've got their allotment there 84.1 million dollars in cap space so a lot of room there quarterback head coach offensive line exclamation point exclamation point exclamation point um and then i wrote edge d line there's they they can make a case outside of taking the quarterback which i would imagine will be mendoza with the first overall pick i think you could make a strong case let's just go bpa best player available on the offensive side of the ball let's try and load up use some of this money and get it get a functional offensive line i think they they had health issues too you get your left tackle back healthy that helps Colton Miller and then you know to me I think Powers Johnson has a chance to be a good center I like him there at that position over guard but continue to throw resources try and fix the offensive line you get the quarterback you'll have a you know a tight end who's arguably the best in the league and a solid young running back I think this could be a watchable offense within a year I do think that's possible I just assumed they would cut Geno Smith and I still would guess they will but if I had to guess but then when I saw that they had 80 million dollars in cap space and they only save 8 million dollars against cap they don't have to cut Gina Smith they could keep him around I don't know I would not I'll go on record and say I would not do that he's been a backup before I know but that was also we've seen Pouty Gino up in Seattle when he wasn't happy you know with the contract situation I don't know that that's he's already he's gone from that backup geno to starter geno i don't want to i don't want to do that he was back in a hall of famers in uh philip rivers yeah it's different and um right man i backed myself into a corner i don't think eli manning's a hall of famer so sorry okay taking that take well i thought you're gonna say russell wilson i thought we're getting ready to go to a whole is russell wilson the hall of famer discussion i'd put him in over geno i mean over uh eli i don't think it's crazy let's not um here let's just keep it they need absolutely everything there's nothing they don't need which is why in the end i think cooler heads will prevail and they'll keep max crosby there was some buzz that max crosby kind of wanted out after they didn't let him play the last couple games but i i doubt it i guess it's it's it's funny though you look at um if you're just looking at salary cap because we just talked about the chargers and all their space and you talked about the raiders and all their space so hey something in common well actually the chargers have a lot of good players need to figure out how to keep and it's pretty much a blank canvas for the Raiders.

20:05They can just go outside with all that money. And I don't know how much of that inside they need to, to re, to re, uh, resign there. Right. They, they, if they traded Max Crosby, by the way, they would save like$30 million against capital. What's the point? They have too much cap space. There's a lot of teams with cap space, which again, which again, you give me the teaser on the free agent crop overall, Greg, but I just don't think there's going to be enough great players to satisfy all the cap space that's out there. No, I've, been saying it now for a couple years there's too much cap space in the league it is much harder to find great players to spend it on uh than it is to to really get in trouble especially with the that's how dan more that's how dan more ends up making whatever you need to make like 30 million a year whatever we got speaking of which uh the jets let's go to them 66 million dollars in cap space mostly a clean slate here in terms of what you could add like they need everything they obviously need a quarterback they need a second wide receiver ad Mitchell was a nice throw in in that trade who actually was productive and maybe can help them as a three four receiver but they need linebackers they need defensive backs I mean it was one of the worst defenses that that you'll ever see uh they have Brees Hall as a free agent to me with all that cap space you might as well just tag Brees Hall and have one less problem uh to fill because he's a good running back and it's it's not a exorbitant tag Quincy Williams will probably be elsewhere they have to hire a defensive coordinator at some point um but a little surprising fun stuff you buried the lead what what's the fun stuff with the jets look it's not a lot to be excited about let me give you something to be excited about because you have an excited jets fans 12 picks greg the second pick the 16th pick so there's two first rounders 33 44 you got two second rounders then there's no third but then you get to a four you've got two fives you've got three sixes two sevens they need to spin off the same thing that I just said about Pittsburgh.

21:59They need to spin off some of this and they've already got extra capital next year. Just keep loading up, man. Keep loading up, get your lottery tickets ready for next for 27. Yeah. I think when they decided to stand pat, it's really amazing that there's 10 openings and the jets aren't, aren't one of them, man. I know this is not how it works, but you almost should be committing multiple years because this GM, at least Darren Mugi is gonna really set the groundwork for what this franchise is going to be like for the next five years or whether whether he has the job or not so many already have three first round picks in 27 right so even if Aaron Glenn is in there long term you got to think that that Mugi is and so we'll see that they were one of the easiest teams to look at because there's not many cuts there's not many good players uh Justin Fields I assume will get cut and that'll open this would be a fun team to be a scout for right now super fun because you have a chance to you get back in you you already got that nice house yeah i'm good on that get back to use to use one of your words you can reimagine this football team okay over the next two drafts will determine whether the jets are relevant for the next decade this is the this is their time they've got to nail it all right let's do one more team each and then we'll take a break okay I'll get to Tennessee.

23:15Tennessee is picking 435 and 66. Another team, 77.1 million in space. So they got a ton of spots here. Head coach, it looks like as we're recording this, Matt Nagy's been the rumor that that was going to be the connection. We'll see what happens there. So when you look at them, this one of any team, I just simplified it and I just wrote BPA offense. Just every round at the top of the free agent market, wherever you want to shop, we are taking the best player available on the offensive side of the ball because I want a year from now, whether or not we win five games or 12 games, I want to say we have our quarterback going forward.

23:58And I like him. I actually do like him a lot. I like Cam Ward. I think he's got a chance to be good. But you've got to get a chance to evaluate him. Load up. Just load up on the offensive side of the ball. You'll hear this kind of trend with me as we go through this. I have a very, I'm not going to waver on the philosophy when you have a young quarterback and people say, oh, you build up the defense. You don't have to score as many points. I'm like, no, no, I'd rather lose. I'd rather lose 28 to 27 with my young quarterback getting better, gaining confidence. That's going to be the long-term move for this organization.

24:27We can get to the defense, but solve the offense first. Give that kid a chance. And the defense has a few players. Jeffrey Simmons being the most notable among them. Not a lot of key free agents for them. Kevin Zeitler's 36 years old and figure he's not going to be back. They've put a lot into their offensive line over the last five years with the three different regimes that they've had and hasn't really borne fruit in particular, but you know, I think you're, you're right on just investing. Look what the bears did. Look what the bears did. Yeah. They're going to have to, they're going to have to get to the defense, but they fix the offense first.

25:04And then they look at all the hope that they've generated there with Caleb Williams, based off all the, all the things they accomplished in free agency, as well as a draft in one year. Would, would anyone take Calvin Ridley in a trade? His stock isn't that high. I think you're moving on there, but it's, and it makes sense. They probably will. You save$13 million in, in cap space, but like, what do you need the cap space for? Legereus Sneed, by the way, is another guy who I do not expect back there. That'll open up some cap space, but there's, there's kind of no point maybe just maybe just hope that you get a good calvin ridley year like you need as many people uh around i do like the young rook i do like the young rookies and i think the tight end and talking to people that were on that previous staff there is belief that that tight end helm is going to be a really really good player so uh file that one away they had a good first draft with mike borganzi but then again at the point he was making those picks this guy chad Brinker was more powerful than him and they've already flipped those roles that now it's Borgonza.

26:02Like it's, it's always changing in Tennessee, but he comes from Kansas city and they'll give him a few years here. Speaking of which the chiefs are not one of the teams. It's weird to be talking about the Kansas city chiefs in this type of a show, by the way, they are$62 million over the cap. And they have this bank account called the Patrick Mahomes contract, the greatest bargain for any team in the NFL. how underpaid he is relatively and the way it's structured. They just kind of change the money around. But$62 million over is a lot. Like they are not going to be able to go too crazy. They can save$20 million by cutting Juwan Taylor, which I think is a move they will do.

26:43Other than that, there weren't a bunch of obvious cuts. Mike Dana, Christian Fulton potentially could get some space. Would they ever consider trading Chris Jones or Trent McDuffie at this point in the process to save some money. They're going to have to be creative here because they don't have a quarterback at the start of the year, you don't think. Gardner Minshew also suffered a devastating injury, so they have to figure that out. Who's going to be the quarterback in OTAs? And they have a lot of needs. Pass rush, kind of rethinking the offense. Rasheed Rice has legal troubles, potentially. Hollywood Brown's a free agent.

27:23There's just a lot here. I could go on and on. I have a lot of notes on the Chiefs. They have a lot of work to do. It is not an easy job right now for Brent Veach, but you do have Patrick Holmes in the building and Andy Reid in the building. That's a nice advantage over normal teams. They've got to get back to nailing the draft. You know, it's not been, if you look at it, there's, as one of my buddies in the league always says, losing leaves clues. And when you look at kind of how the Chiefs have arrived to this place, you look at their last three drafts and the combination of lack of dependability, and production from those last three drafts.

27:58It's kind of caught up to them. And they did a great job in the previous years before that, where they had built up a dominant young defense. We thought that defense was going to be, you know, a chance to be an elite elite defense for a long time with all these young emerging players. And outside of McDuffie, I don't know how many of those, and Bolton's been really good, but I don't know how many of those guys have continued to just progress. Karloffis is okay. He's a solid player, but like they're not, not to the level, not to now, not to the level he's getting paid for sure. And some of the more solid players are free agents too.

28:30Jalen Watson is going to be relatively high on my free agency list because he's a player who's produced. Cook, their safety was their starting safety. Leo Chanel's an interesting player. Kelsey's a free agent. Does he come back? Because they gave him a lot of money. Those are one-year deals. Those go straight on that cap. So if he wants to come back, you assume they work out a contract for him. So that that's another big one. But man, a lot of work to do for the Kansas City Chiefs. All the people have been hating on them for all the years who just root for Nick Wright's downfall. They're enjoying life right now.

29:05But I'm not buying that that they're in some sort of total rebuild. When you have Patrick Mahomes and we're going to assume he's playing in the second half of next season, you're going to have a chance. By the way, sidebar, you know how weird of a sport baseball is? sure i just saw this yesterday like but kansas city like they don't i don't they don't feel good about their power so arbitrarily hey we're going to move the fences in 10 feet and uh done there's nothing wrong in football like that's like you know our kicker's not good so we're going to move the goal post up we're going to move the goal up about five yards or if you're the dodgers you're like and we have you know eight 100 million dollar players let's let's add another one and Kyle Tucker.

29:45Let's go. Let's take a break. We'll be back and wrap up. I'm going to go throw up. I'll be right back.

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