40's and Free Agents: Standout Prospects with Ollie Connolly

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1:11Welcome to 40s and Free Agents. I am Greg Rosenthal with the best draft analyst in the business. But who am I talking about? Daniel Jeremiah, of course. But for the first time on 40s and free agents this season, we're introducing a guest, Oli Connolly. You might know him from NFL Daily and his read optional sub stack. DJ, give a welcome to another draft analyst. You don't have to be the only one. First of all, I thought for sure you're just going to go straight in that direction. That would have been it was all set up on a tee for you. But no, I'm stoked to have Oli on here. It's fun to get a chance to chat about these guys and to talk to someone personally that I haven't had a chance to visit with on this subject because a lot of times you get hung up on the same debates and the same conversations when you're talking to the same people.

1:58So excited to have you, man. Thanks for coming.

2:00Ollie Connolly:Delighted to be here. I like that Greg did not have the guts just say he knew in his soul. I can't say that with any sincerity or clarity. I cannot, right, DJ? You are my two favorites, though. And that was why for this episode, we're getting closer and closer to the actual draft. I thought it'd just be fun for me personally. This is very selfish. Just throw some jump balls in the air and listen to two of the smartest guys in the business kind of bat around a few names. And one thing we haven't done, weirdly, DJ, on this show is talk about quarterbacks even a little. So I just thought that would be a fun place to start because I haven't really heard you talk in depth.

2:38Obviously, you have Fernando Mendoza, number one. but I'd like to hear you two guys talk about him a little bit about what you think like he does well. And if there is a concern, like where, where that concern is. Yeah, sure. I mean, there's look, there's no perfect players ever and in this draft as well. So I have Mendoza as my top guy, I have him as a top quarterback. I have him as a top player, the things that you like, some of them are the obvious things. I mean, he's right now, he's about 240 pounds. He's six, five, he's a big, big, strong dude. He's durable. He's tough. He's smart. All the stuff you get off the field in terms of the focus, the work ethic, all that stuff is excellent.

3:19Then on the field, I thought, you know, when you watch him, he's more of a drive thrower than a layer thrower. Like there's different styles of how you throw a football. Like if you think about Herbert, how Herbert throws, Herbert's a power thrower more than a layer thrower. Whereas like Matthew Stafford's maybe one of the few guys who can, you know, live in all worlds and do all that stuff equally well. You know, like Brock Purdy would get to Ty Simpson. That's how he throws the ball a little bit more. He can get up and down, layer throws. But he's a power drive thrower. One of the criticisms on him is that he's a little bit robotic.

3:51If you go back and look at my notes on Herbert when he was coming out, you'd see some of the same lines in there about being, okay, well, is he a little bit too robotic? Does he just play a little more loose? Could we free him up a little bit? But he's been great late games. He's been great third downs, red zone. All that stuff has been excellent. So it took a billion sacks when he was at Cal playing on a bad team. That got a lot better this year. And Ollie, I'll hit you on this one too. But in my conversations with Orlovsky, a lot of it is he's talking about what the offense is and what they're asking him to do.

4:24And I've tried to tell Dan, at least my opinion of it, my experience of it is you got to be careful not grading systems and what players are asked to do. That Indiana team had a very specific formula to win games, which was we have a really good defense. we're going to stay in games. Hey, if you have to take a sack or throw the ball away, let's not live dangerously in the first three quarters of these games. And then they kind of open him up a little bit later for him to make big throws. So that's kind of a scattershot view for me on Mendoza.

4:53Ollie Connolly:Yeah. I'm not going to ding a guy for playing in a system where the system boat raced everyone on the way to the national championship. I'm good with him just operating the system. I care about how they operate the system. And he operated at the highest possible level you could ever imagine. And I'm not going to get too caught up on a guy where you complain about some of the middle field throws and some of the work at the intermediate level, where I think you see the translatable skills with the anticipation, some of the touch, some of the feel, some of the timing, throwing those deep comebacks, throwing more difficult throws in terms of timing and rhythm deep outside the numbers on the road in Eugene, tough weather, tough situation, and just shredding people 17, 18 yards down the field with timing on these deep breaking comebacks.

5:34Ollie Connolly:I feel that level of precision, the level of tenacity, the toughness will carry over to be able to make all the throws all over the field. I do think there's fair criticism about some of the roboticism. I think that, you know, to look at the guys he's going to be compared to, whether it's Matt Ryan, whether it's Jared Goff, some of these guys who play more as pocket distributors, there is a more nimbleness to their game. They do operate in that stick, slide, climb, throw, and there's a rhythm and a feel to kind of navigate around pressure within the flow of an offense, staying within the flow of the concept.

6:06Ollie Connolly:I do think he's a little bit more mechanical and I don't think he's got quite the elastic arm someone like a goth has to be able to really kind of navigate around fine little windows and kind of get it out to the perimeter quickly if it's not all lined up for him. So there are some things I think are a bit concerning in terms of the translatable skills to an NFL offense. And if you had seen him operate more of what Ryan Grubb was doing at Alabama, you could just kind of check it off the box. So I think there's a little bit of projection in there. and we know what system he's playing in. It's not like we're guessing what system he's going to go through.

6:35Ollie Connolly:It's going to be more of a movement stretch-based system having to pepper to the middle of the field. So I think there's some fair concerns with that, but I would bet on the toughness, the smarts, the intellect any day. I find it hilarious that there's a report they already have Brian Greasy, who was with Kubiak in San Francisco, essentially installing the Raiders' offensive. You know where that came from, Greg? No. Where? You? Yeah. Am I reporting? Yeah. So here's the thing. And I'll clear that up too, because he's been training with Brian Greasy. And the way I said it was he's learning the Raiders offense.

7:09Well, it's not like the Raiders are hiring Brian Greasy to teach Mendoza. Brian Greasy worked in that offense. He knows that offense inside and out, literally kind of grew up in that offense. So he's had a chance when you're training with somebody to then, instead of just working on certain things, I can start teaching you the concepts and some of the verbiage and things like that because he's going to know it from his time. Him and Kubiak were together, I believe, in San Francisco at one point in time on that staff. So, yeah, that was mine. I was on McAfee, and they asked if I thought there was any possibility that he wasn't the first overall pick.

7:45And I just kind of flippantly said, well, I don't know. He's spending a lot of time with Brian Grease. He's learning the Raiders offense. I don't think he's too worried about going anywhere else. I mean, I'm not trying to get you in trouble. But yeah, I mean, these are all grown men, adults. He knows what's happening. It's smart to do. I don't want to spend the whole time on Mendoza and the quarterbacks. But just before we go, I would like, DJ, you to compare him maybe where he would rank compared to a Bo Nix and a J.J. McCarthy or even a Cam Ward. Because from the outside, I see a lot of good things.

8:21The things that I'm a little worried about was you're saying, okay, maybe some questions against pressure, not being as good with pocket movement, which is my number one thing. And then a lot of fumbles and turnover-worthy plays at Cal. And I think that should count for something. So that's a tough combination. Like where does that make him rank kind of with the other quarterbacks you've had near the top? Well, first of all, I don't know that there was a quarterback who played anywhere near as bad a group as he had a cow. Like if we're talking about any of these top tier quarterbacks, I mean, Cam Ward's group at Washington state would look like the, you know, the Washington Redskins line of the, of the eighties and nineties, if you compared to what he was playing with at cow.

9:00So it was, you had P bodies on you before you even got to the top of your drop there. So I don't really, you know, hold that against him. And there's, you know, I would say this. He's a clunky. He's kind of a clunky robotic athlete. But if you want to throw him on the move, he can throw on the move either side. He can throw right or throw left. It's going to be more of kind of the reactionary movement. But the thing that he can do is he's so big and he's so strong that you'll see him. He can absorb contact and still throw the ball and throw it accurately. So he plays big in there. He's not someone who's a statue who's stuck and can't move at all.

9:33he can throw within confined spaces, whereas other guys, I feel like if you can't move and you get a little bit small, the difference between him and Goff, to me, Goff would still need a little bit of space, a little bit of room. I don't think this kid does. I think he's got more horsepower with his arm, and I think he can generate that without necessarily having the foot space there. In terms of who I compare him to, I have a higher grade on him than I had on Cam Ward. Cam Ward was the top quarterback last year. I had a higher grade on the Bo Nicks. I mean, he's not in the class of the big three from a couple years ago.

10:08I had Caleb, Drake, and then Jaden. All three of those guys had higher grades than Mendoza for me. But I had a higher grade than Cam Ward. So totally different players, but I had a higher grade. Right. You, Ali, I saw you at one point, which was intriguing. Just like maybe it was just more size-wise, but what he's got to learn compared him a little bit to Ben Roethlisberger.

10:28Ollie Connolly:Yeah, size-wise. I mean, Ben had more. Yeah. Yeah, but hard to get on the ground like that. You got to you got to get him and get him on the ground because he's just so big, man. Dimension wise, he's got Carson Palmer's dimensions effectively. But when he was playing during the season, I don't think I quite recognize that was how big and tough and sturdy he was. I know he had the body armor and he took some serious shots. And going back to the Cal stuff, I mean, he took hits where I still don't understand how he's moving today. That to me was purely just that, okay, he can absorb that toughness.

10:58Ollie Connolly:He got straight up and he's got this Brady-esque maniacal energy when when you get him, he comes back to the throat immediately. And that just appeals to me. It appeals to me. I think it shows on third downs. It shows when he targets the new fish coming on the field. He just wants to go and rip up the freshman corner who's wandered on there. So I just think he's operating mentally at different speed of the game. And maybe he's not allowed to attack the full field in the way certain guys are. Maybe it's not entirely NFL structured offense, but I think he's playing the game as a professional quarterback within the confines they ask him to play.

11:30The last thing I'll tack on to that is there's something to, and not like to get into George Costanza, but there's something to shrinkage. When you get hit early in games, when you get, I mean, really, really lit up, you'll see some guys really start to shrink. And he was the exact opposite of him. He got torched early in the Ohio State game, the Miami game. like they lit him up and it just it kind of it kind of still is resolved a little bit more so than made him you know gun shy back there that matters I think that's important. Speaking of shrinking I felt like bad for Arlovsky when he made the Ty Simpson thing and it becomes a whole story for a whole week because I think there's not enough to talk about with this draft so that just got a lot of attention I won't put you on the spot to go after someone I know you really respect DJ, but I would put it this way.

12:19If you were the Jets, and I'm seeing all this Tannenbaum stuff on ESPN, like, hey, the Jets are really interesting. If I was the Jets, I would take them. And I'm thinking, well, Tannenbaum literally helped hire the GM there. His search firm not only helped hire Darren Mugey and Aaron Glenn, but the head of his search firm got hired with the Jets and now works there, Rick Spielman. And so I'm like, why is he throwing that out there on ESPN? Is it to help outside Simpson? Is it because this is actually true? If you were the Jets. You have the 16th overall pick. You also have two early in the second round.

12:52Would you be taking Ty Simpson? How would you attack or where would you take? No, I would have the discussion if he's there. I think they have the first pick in the second round. That would be for me where I would be, okay, we can afford if we want to just take a shot here. It's a flyer. We'll take a shot and take a flyer. Those first two picks, everything that I've heard coming out of there and for those that are dialed in there is that this is all building towards 27. This is all looking out into the future to the point where if they didn't end up going Arvel Reese over Bailey, it would be even more so about, you know, Reese being a better player in 27 than maybe in 26, whereas Bailey's a little bit ahead of him in terms of polish as a pass rusher right now.

13:32But everything is just kind of building out towards that year. That doesn't point to Ty Simpson. And I also think, you know, some of this comes back from working in the AFC North. Like we wanted quarterbacks who fit that division. and it just that in the AFC East and where you're going to play. You saw like Tua and he's obviously playing all of his home games there in Miami. But later in the year when you're playing in some of those other environments, like he's not, that's not a great match there. I just think when you're in the AFC North, the AFC East, especially if you're playing in Buffalo or with the Jets, like I just want a bigger guy.

14:04I don't think he necessarily fits as well there. He feels more like an NFC West quarterback to me. Arizona is the absolute perfect fit. I know the Rams have been discussed. If they want to try and find one for the future, do they trade back from 13 and try and maneuver to do that? I can understand that, I guess. But he doesn't feel like the Jets guy to me. But again, if he's there at the top of the second round, you can have the discussion. And look, DJ has Ty Simpson ranked in his 30s and his top 50s. So a quality player, but yeah, quarterbacks get a little bit of a bump. So I think that kind of says where you have him slotted in.

14:39Do you like Ty Simpson, Ollie? Do you think he is going to have a future as a starter?

14:46Ollie Connolly:Yeah, I have him graded out as a solid starter. It's just so difficult to figure out who Ty Simpson is compared to the early portion of the year, compared to the late portion of the year, and trying to kind of navigate, was that health concerns? Is that a body armor issue that's going to carry over to durability in the league? Was it just an individual game plan thing? Was it the teammates around him? I think when you watch him early in the season, beyond just some of the accuracy, which ebbs and flows with him anyway, everything was just so much quicker. He was more agile in the pocket. There was more rhythm and bounce and feel to his drops.

15:15Ollie Connolly:I thought he had a real good presence for a pressure flash in his face, just being able to scoot out there quickly, just the quick slides and then rip it. DJ mentioned earlier Brock Purdy. That is kind of the play style you're looking at. A lot of playing on the move, a lot of quick navigation in the pocket and then rip it into the intermediate portion of the field. I thought that was their more Florida State early in the season. And as the year went along, as he took an absolute beating and the team kind of spiraled on him and the game plans got a bit funky. I think just the difficulties with how he wants to play, which is ultra aggressive, driving the ball down the field.

15:47Ollie Connolly:He just doesn't have the kind of horsepower to be able to play that way in the NFL. And so I think he's just more in that Purdy mold. And I think Arizona is the ideal spot where he can make a bunch of throws on the move and operate a system. Could he go there early second round and be a solid start to view? I think so. I just I do have genuine concerns about just the durability. I think a 17-game, maybe 18-game season over the course of his career, we already saw in one year that he might not be able to hold up that punishment. Yeah, I don't disagree with that. But yeah, to go to your point, and Greg, I think you're getting ready to piggyback.

16:19It is the floor to me. That's the system. That's the stadium. That's the system. That whole thing makes tons of sense to me. And later in the year, I talked about Mendoza. When you watched him in big moments and late in games and later in the year, I thought it looked like Mendoza was literally growing. He just looked bigger. He played bigger. And it looked like Ty was getting smaller, playing smaller. He's getting hit the balls on the ground. And I even thought some of this field vision stuff kind of that came and went a little bit. I want to say it was like, was it Eastern Illinois? It was one of their kind of easier games towards the end of the year.

16:56He threw two picks, one of which was on a Hail Mary. So throw that one out. But there's another one that was across the middle should have been picked off. Like you could have three interceptions in that game against a bad opponent. And that kind of throws out some of the, you know, well, it's the overmatched offensive line and, you know, the lack of receivers. I know the run game was not there, but they're going to have, you know, a first round offensive lineman. They're going to have another offensive lineman get drafted. Jeremy Bernard is going to be a day two picket receiver. The tight end is going to get like it wasn't like that he was out there with Cal that Mendoza had the year before.

17:27I mean, they had some guys, but I just thought, you know, and some of that was probably the sickness and him losing weight and everything. But I just thought he played a little bit smaller as you got later in the year, really starting with the first Oklahoma game. And then kind of beyond that, there was, I mean, gosh, the SEC championship game. He didn't have much of a chance for what they had going on around him offensively that day. But man, I just thought that was a case where he looks small. He couldn't get away from anybody. That was my takeaway there.

17:57Ollie Connolly:I also just thought you could see as DC's got tape on him during the year and adjusted to what his strengths were, they started packing the middle of the field, they started rotating more. Some of the things that are strengths in the profile, if you just kind of slice off at six weeks, right? Operating this expansive system, it's a bunch of pro style passing concepts. He's working through things so quickly. One, two, three, boom, balls out. As DC's got some film on him and started adjusting, particularly the rotation of the back end, he did look a little bit more frazzled. There was more of a delay in the decision making.

18:26Ollie Connolly:People started setting the rush in a way where you could just see him kind of bail out the back door, where he's not just kind of staying in the pocket and working through it the way he's going to have to play in the NFL. He's not going to have the speed to just kind of bail out of there and beat guys and play on the perimeter all the time. That's going to be more in the design role game, in the boot game and kind of a function of the offense. And so I just thought you saw people find answers to what he did well early in the year, as well as him just kind of declining and falling off in his own play.

18:52Ollie Connolly:And that's where the start is a limiting factor. There's a lot of situational awareness of which I think is a concern too. And that's just a function of not playing a whole bunch of football. If you'd started 25 games, simple things, no laces, throws, speeding up your time because it's an all out pressure. And okay, the concept demands this rhythm, but I just got to get the ball out on time. And accurately, those things, it's going to be hard for him to learn that with live bullets in the NFL. Quick question. I don't want to cut you off there, but do we need Greg for this? I'm just thinking about this.

19:21No. I don't think we do. I'm just here. I mean, you've already got two box. Can we just take Greg's already made it clear that like looking smaller is the worst thing you could possibly be. And that's, that's just for me. A regular day. I didn't mean to interrupt Ollie, but I was just in there looking at Greg. Do we really, I mean, this is really necessary in this whole podcast. That's my whole dream. It's a, it's like a Ponzi scheme to basically take this to the end. It sounds like he's a guy type Simpson to wrap up on him, Ollie. And you can finish your point here. It's like, I don't know. And it, it, In a different draft, I don't think we'd be talking about him as much.

19:56And if personally, just from the outside, having viewed all these drafts over the years, he sounds like a guy that DJ and Rich are talking about. Oh, wow. He's still on the board here, entering like round three, than he is to be like a surprise story and something happens early. But that's just my impression from the right side.

20:14Ollie Connolly:I think because of the system he played in, how he did operate, He can probably start earlier than guys who've had his lack of experience traditionally. But there are just fundamental things in his game that can only come from playing against live ammunition. And I just worry about the durability going up against Myles Garrett, whoever it is. He just feels like he might get folded up early on and then we're in trouble. Well, and the fact that all these different teams, like the Browns, for instance, and Mike LaFleur specifically said, you know, even mentioned that when he spoke last week at the coach's breakfast, Just, you know, he told me, Ty Simpson, that he wants to be an Arizona card.

20:52And I'm like, why is he saying that? You normally only say that about guys like you aren't going to draft. For adults with Crohn's disease or ulcerative colitis symptoms, every choice matters. Tremphaya offers self-injection or intravenous infusion from the start. Tremphaya is administered as injections under the skin or infusions through a vein every four weeks, followed by injections under the skin every four or eight weeks. If your doctor decides that you can self-inject Tremphaya, proper training is required. Tremphaya is a prescription medicine used to treat adults with moderately to severely active Crohn's disease and adults with moderately to severely active ulcerative colitis.