Championship Weekend Picks with Cynthia Frelund + Ravens Hire Jesse Minter as Head Coach

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2:13welcome to nfl daily where like billy bean our ish just doesn't work in the playoffs my name is greg rosenthal i'm here on stage five where we just taped another electric episode of game day view check that out on nfl network because it's with my co-host the brilliant cynthia freeland who's eight and two picking games uh straight up in the playoffs and is crushing me against the spread in the playoffs when I refer to Billy Bean. I don't know if you remember that quote. Oh, okay. The former general manager of the Oakland A's who just said his stuff didn't work in the playoffs.

2:48Cynthia Frelund:I mean, I appreciate the honesty. Yeah, I went 0-3 last week. Look, I'm still at... It's like rushing for the season. I'm still at 36 and 24. That's 60%. That's solid. 60%, gee, I kind of want to just like quit right here. I mean, you kind of have to. Yeah, because there's actually no way to land on 60 % from here on out. No. Look, it is kind of, this is obvious, but it's a good lesson for people who are putting real hard-earned money out there. Like, everyone goes harder in the playoffs when really that doesn't make as much sense. Because in a normal week, you're not really going to want to be picking every game with authority.

3:24And you have way less games to choose from, which means you have less opportunities to use a Cynthia. Mind your units, you know? Mind your units. I am excited to talk about these two conference championship games. So we're just going to pick them against the spread because we have to. There's only two left. But we're also going to talk a little news. Jesse Minter is the new Baltimore Ravens head coach and some coordinator news. That's really interesting. Cynthia is really tied in with the whole coaching world. So I've been enjoying getting her perspective these last couple of weeks. But let's start with the games.

3:55Let's start with the AFC championship. As we're taping, the lines come down a little bit for Denver. and Denver is now a four and a half point underdog at home. I was stunned by what your computer model spit out for game debut. I have the Broncos winning it straight up by one point.

4:16Cynthia Frelund:Straight up though. The Stidham factor didn't move it that much. So maybe you had them winning by five points. I had them winning. I looked at it. I think it was four. Okay. I can't remember, but I did look at it. It was more than a field goal, but less than a touchdown, which that's not a very helpful thing to say, but, you know. Honestly, that makes sense, and I want you to go into the reasons why you think Denver could win this game straight up, but especially why you feel good about the number. And I tend to agree in terms of the number, because for the Patriots to ever be favored by five and a half points this week, that would almost indicate that Bo Nix to Jarrett Stidham was like a six-point difference or a seven-point difference.

4:55Cynthia Frelund:For a while it was, because I believe it opened negative one and a half Denver, and then it swung to five and a half. So that's seven. That's crazy. And then now back to four and a half. See, that doesn't as, look, I think Bo Nix is really good. I just think it's a quarterback friendly system. And most backup quarterbacks, I think like that's too much for him. So anyways, tell me why you like the Broncos in general. So there's a couple of things that I always look for. And O-lines are where everything is won and lost for me, really. That's where I start. And the trenches for the Broncos, they started the season strong.

5:28Cynthia Frelund:They continued the season strong. Quinn Miners, his tummy. It's one of my favorite things in all of preseason. I don't know if the man gets sunburned on it. He wears his, he like crops. I like that you show your tummy. If you're, if you guys are watching on YouTube, Cynthia's also got a badass leather jacket on. I have a good tummy. He exposes the tummy. You are not doing that. I'm not exposing my tummy, but he, but his is, and I'm just like, does it get sunburned? I have so many questions about it, but Quinn Miners has been amazing. I joke, but this whole O-line really is an advantage for the Broncos because we know Milton Williams, in the middle.

5:58Cynthia Frelund:He is going to want to come after you. Caleb on chase on fun name to say terrible to defend. If I were going up against him, it would be terrible. Right? So, I mean, as a coach, cause not as a human, I would die. So ultimately I'm looking at these different Christian Barmore. There's a lot of different ways that the pressure can come, but I still think that the Broncos O-line has been sort of battle tested in this way. They faced a lot of great defense. Now thing number two, what is Bo Nix instructed not to do? What is the thing all season long? It's like, do not take sex. Hey kid, don't take sacks and what did he not do he didn't really take that many sacks it was he was one of the lowest sacked quarterbacks in the league part of that scheme why well he throws a lot of screen passes that is an area that the Patriots have had a tough time with I know Robert Spillane's been great against the run but screen passes have been an area where it's been a problem and what did Bo Nix have the second most yards doing screen passing is that how you would say that yeah whatever seems right with screen passes he had the second most yards in the regular season so I'm looking at all these things together and I'm also thinking it's Sean Payton.

6:57Cynthia Frelund:Sean Payton is always playing poker. This man is the best bluffer. I watched that Chicago film again to be like, what's the difference here? What, why does it look so different for my eye? Well, for almost kind of an interesting reason, they used a ton of motion, like 72 % of the time they were using motion pre-snap and then they threw against the bears. Against the bills. Yeah. Oh, sorry. Against the bills. Excuse me. Against the bills. They threw against the bills inexplicably in that situation so I'm looking at that and I'm like the Bills defense is really good against the run you're using motion and you're throwing against them fascinating he he almost has an advantage with Stidham in a weird way not an advantage like you would want him over Bo Nix obviously no but the fact that you haven't got to see what a Jarrett Stidham regular season Sean Payton offense looks like.

7:47In two years. In two years, you got a couple of weeks at the end. But the fact that they gave him that end in 2023. Right. The fact that you gave him that second contract, paying him good money, about six and a half million dollars a year after he was already in the system. And that Sean Payton said, OK, year three, that's when quarterbacks elevate in my system. I think he can execute. I think he has a high ceiling. I talked about it enough on this show I don't need to again but what you hit on is why I'm also on the Broncos covering the four and a half ultimately I always say like I have to just take my team to win 100 % on this show where we're in and that's even true in terms of the numbers I don't like going against them in terms of the numbers but I have to just like be real and when I'm real on this one like I just don't think it's a great number I think the Patriots are a really good team and I think they're gonna to have to play really well, and I think they will, to win a close game in Denver.

8:42Like, I think the Patriots are going to play near their best, and then that results in a two or three-point win. Like, I think that's kind of the outcome here. It's not like you're getting lucky to win in Denver in any scenario, because I think Stidham will be able to run the offense. Ultimately, the things I wrote down were similar to you, which is, in the end, what's the first thing you look at between two teams it's the line play and i think the denver offensive line beats the patriots defensive lines sneaky issue the last couple weeks patriots actually not getting a ton of great four-man pass rush they haven't needed to because they're just blitzing the crap out of other teams and and cj

9:19Cynthia Frelund:shroud is targeting christian gonzalez on every single pass which makes no sense i need someone to have that make sense that one didn't make sense and uh why i believe in this defense that they're playing better than than they have and ultimately that's you know one of the reasons they get a win. But it's the other side of the ball that really cinches that I think it's a low scoring game. Denver's defensive line is clearly better than the Patriots offensive line too. What is Will Campbell and Jared Wilson struggle with like speed off the edge and like twists and communication up front and Denver can do that.

9:54Right. Denver can do that so well. I'm saying all that and then I'm adding the weather into the mix too. Like I just think it's going to be in the 20s. Windchill might be in the teens or even the single digits. And so to me, that's kind of an equalizer. So just if you're giving me four and a half points between two pretty even teams and the home team's the underdog, I think I'm just going to take those points. Ultimately, though, I do think Drake May reminds everyone why he's an MVP candidate and kind of does something legendary and plays just like I am the best player on this field and goes and gets them a win in the hero.

10:30So I'm kind of, I'm threading the needle.

10:32Cynthia Frelund:You are threading the needle. There's only one way to do it, you know? Got to do it. Thread that needle. Okay, so that means I'm taking Patriots to win. But the Broncos to cover. All right, so we're on the same side there. Yep. Seahawks, Rams. I actually don't know if we're on the same side of this because I don't know your point total. It is two and a half for Seattle. I guess I'm threading the needle because I have two point win for Seattle. You have a two point. I hate that. I mean, I think you should either, when you have two points and it's between three. I mean, I'm just going to go and take three at this point because I think it's stupid to take two.

11:05Okay, so you're going to take Seattle.

11:06Cynthia Frelund:Yeah, why not? I'll take Seattle because I have a two-point win. I'm going to stick with my math because that's what, but for the sake of our game, I'll take three because God loves fun. You know, that's one thing I can tell you. And I think it's interesting. Like when you look, when you run all the numbers and you're going to be on game day morning, as always, this weekend, and you're talking about the numbers, What stands out that the model spits out the most that's favorable for Seattle getting this? It's really all of the different ways their defenses have. I understand in these games against the Rams, at particular moments, Puka Nakua has lit up the stat sheet.

11:43Cynthia Frelund:I understand what happened. But I also understand that they're learning from all of these different pieces. When you have a rookie like Nicky Manwari, who's been so versatile and so healthy, and the secondary wasn't all fully healthy the first time they played, and that first one was banana. Like, that was a crazy game. So both games were great. And they only allowed that. It's so weird how those two games played out because the first game, the Seahawks only allowed like 250 yards total. They played really well on defense. But it's so strange because, you know, that second game, everyone's like, that was the game of the frigging year or whatever.

12:12Cynthia Frelund:And it was an incredible game on Thursday night. But the first game was a pretty darn incredible game, too. It just wasn't in its own primetime slot. So I don't know. I'm looking at this one. I think learning from that is number one. And then number two, I have to admit it. I've looked at this Rams defense and there have been pieces have been more and more vulnerable as the weeks have gone by now they've been great against the run they've been great in certain passing situations but you can get a deep ball on them and those explosive plays are that is what Sam Darnold has been making all of his money doing this year I apologize deep deep I know and he hasn't much lately which is interesting so I want to see that come back I think it can and should he hasn't needed to for what it's worth that's what I was gonna say like is it that he can't or didn't.

12:54Right. They haven't even attempted many plus 20 yard throws since that Rams game. Actually, I apologize. It's been a big week for media apologies. I don't know if you've seen on our four-letter friend that's also doing sports. It's a lot of apologizing to different athletes. I want to apologize for bad takes and whatnot. It doesn't matter.

13:17Cynthia Frelund:You have to tell me what this is off air because I have no idea what you're talking about. I am over my head. I want to apologize to the NFL daily listeners because I took the Rams on our show on Wednesday when I went around the horn and was just like, all right, everyone pick the games and I'm, I'm picking there like kind of what I want to happen. Right. Cause you know, my daughter and my wife are, but I really don't buy it. And I am taking the Seahawks. I hate doing that, but this is my official one. Like I sat with it and immediately I hadn't actually, this sounds stupid, but as of Wednesday afternoon, I just hadn't really thought about who I'm picking for the game.

13:52Like my gut just says the Seahawks team is awesome, that it's better. And obviously if the Rams win, it wouldn't shock me. I feel like they're going to play a little looser after a near-death experience last week in Chicago. Like I think McVay is going to be better. I think Stafford is going to be better. I just think the Seahawks team is a wagon. I just think top to bottom, every level of that defense is the most special part of this game. As good as the Rams offense is, and it's the number one scoring offense, number one scoring defense. The Seahawks are playing that way now. I haven't seen it from the Rams for a month.

14:27And you go defensive line, linebacker level, secondary. I think their defense, and it's a weird defense and running type of league right now, is the most special thing that is left in the playoffs. You're at home. That's enough for me. And it's two and a half points. these two teams, I keep coming back to this in my head, have played each other twice this year. Sam Darnold has freaking turned the ball over six times in those two games. They are minus six. And they're one and one. Right. And they're minus six. And the scoring and the scoring's the same. The, you know, the yardage is about the same.

15:03And they're minus six in turnovers. They were minus three in each one of those games. And yet the score was about the same. So just don't be minus three. Let's be minus one. And the better team is the Seahawks. Minus two, heck. Right. Right. So that's where I landed on this. Okay. So are you going to go with this? What's your score? They win by four or something. I had a low scoring. You know what? I actually had a, I think this is going to be under. I didn't really have a hot take on like, I know the Broncos, we have to pick over unders and it's not going to be one of my, our picks here. No. Of the two, I think the under and NFC to me was more attractive.

15:38I think it's going to be a little bit of a defensive game, a running game, like a red zone stop type of game and uh i think it's like 23 to 19 something like okay okay i mean

15:52Cynthia Frelund:the over-unders are not compelling for me in this game no i'm not really into the over-unders either this this sometimes i am but not not this weekend my final stat by the way for this it was from next gen stats i love this five cornerbacks in the nfl this year allowed one yard or less per snap coverage snap three of them are on the seahawks reek willin josh job and devin weatherspoon i mean witherspoon that's incredible so that that is just like yeah a ridiculous yep all right we got something funny yeah so i went to a religious college went to bc right i didn't grow up religious we get the bible they're like okay return to job whatever we have to take a theology class you better believe i had no idea where to look in that damn bible i was like can somebody tell only word of fun because I was spelling it like that.

16:39I, uh, oh yeah, that's right. It's not spelled that way. Good call. We're exposing herself here. I was also raised not in a religious household whatsoever. People assume I have knowledge of what's gone on at temples, but I grew up in a 95 % Irish Catholic town. I did go to a couple of midnight masses because I was dating a Catholic girl and was trying to like, you know, get in with her parents and stuff. Well, just more just like, hey, I'm a respectable young man. But yeah, I'm a little clueless too. So yeah, let's go book a job, Josh Job on Sunday. All right, let's talk coaches before we get out of here.

17:15Jesse Minter is the new coach of the Baltimore Ravens. It's interesting because you heard right when this opening happened from people who are smart about these sort of things, watch out for Jesse Minter there. And it wasn't just connecting the dots. It was, I think people with real information. They go through the process. In the end, it is the Chargers defensive coordinator who goes from being Jim Harbaugh's defensive coordinator to the replacement for John Harbaugh in Baltimore. Very interesting that the Ravens and the Chargers just, they keep swimming in the same pools. You know what I mean?

17:54What do you think about Jesse Minter taking this job?

17:57Cynthia Frelund:I'm trying to figure out, like, you know, we talk about the Shanahan tree, like after Mike Shanahan, not Kyle, right? But like we talk about, so the Harbaugh tree, would it be after Jim or John? Because like Mike McDonald. Mike McDonald's in there. I think you just call it the Harbaugh tree. It's both. So it just encompasses both? Well, because they share them. That's what's. Right. It's all crazy. And they're all hiring right now. Now, John Harbaugh looks like he's settled on Mike McDaniel. I mean, Jim Harbaugh has settled on Mike McDaniel. So he's not making too many hires. Unless Mike McDaniel's getting hired by someone else.

18:30Cynthia Frelund:But you never know. Right. Unless for some reason he didn't get this Ravens job here. So we'll see. I guess he has one left that he's waiting to find out. But John Harbaugh and Jesse Minter will presumably be fighting over the same assistants, which is very interesting because the Ravens have been like saying John Harbaugh cannot take some of the assistants that he wants to with him to New York. Like what have you heard, like being around the league of like what Jesse Minter is like and what have you seen in terms of this Chargers defense and and kind of how it applies in Baltimore. I've never met anyone who has anything negative to say about Jesse Minter.

19:05Cynthia Frelund:I've heard he's a great dude, a great coach, great at teaching. The questions I ask are, you know, what's his install like? You know, because these are teaching moments. I think you have to be a good teacher to be a good head coach. I've heard nothing but great things top to bottom about him, but I don't almost care who the head coach is until I see who all of their assistants are because it's the cascade of everyone that matters, not just one figurehead and then getting whatever like I want to see the are you going to command the gravitas to get the good assistance because it feels like a land grab right now with all these coaching openings who's going to go where who right but what are they going to do does it match myself does it match yourself like it's very like who gets Anthony Weaver for that's what I'm saying coordinator maybe not Baltimore because he was he was one of the finalists for the head job and And that doesn't make sense.

19:55Cynthia Frelund:But sometimes they're interviewing them to be the defensive coordinator, like doing those little sneak interviews. I got one for you. I got two for you. I'm glad you brought that up. So I asked quickly of, like, who could be the OC candidates for Jesse Minner because that's so big. And I heard back Joe Brady and Cliff Kingsbury are two really strong picks, and they are two men who interviewed for the head coaching job in Baltimore. If you tell me that Jesse Minner has Cliff, I think that's interesting. I think that's interesting. honestly lamar it's maybe more right it's not maybe a long-term play but i think with lamar right now i'm not really thinking about the long term i'm thinking about the next two years can we go win a super bowl cliff is intriguing to me for that yeah joe brady is interesting too i wouldn't hate that cliff is really intriguing to me and especially given like the thing that's interesting that I like about Cliff with the style fit for Lamar Jackson is I think that like Cliff could teach him some things that he hasn't seen yet which is hard to do with a guy who's already been an MVP multiple times right like if you'd be like wow like that could be cool to see something a little different so I mean I don't know I I think it again I think a coach a head coach will always be remembered by who's actually doing the work right like who's calling the plays on defense who's calling the plays on offense.

21:14Cynthia Frelund:So we'll see how he puts together. Again, I've heard nothing but great things. Same. Daniel Jeremiah speaks highly of him, who's been around him with the Chargers for a couple years. Basically, anyone that's been around him thinks he's that dude. I think he's kind of the perfect age for a first-time head coach. He's 42. Okay. He's not too young. He looks pretty young. He looks young. Until he puts his hat on, then he looks more mature. He looks young. And then the other thing I really like is that he was in that building for five years. He was there from 2016 through 2020. So he knows where the bathroom is.

21:44Well, I just know they know him. I think Eric DaCosta knows him so well. Steve Bishotti knows him. To me, that's a system job, kind of like Kyle Shannon has system quarterbacks. You know what I mean? You can plug in a coach to that job, I think, and they're going to be set up for success. And I think they have a good idea how he'll fit into that. Patrick Claibon, who was on the set with us when you broke the news that this was happening. He is a little he's a little skeptical because he wanted to get out of the whole Michigan family that it's too incestuous. He started making jokes immediately that what they're going to bring Greg Roman back.

22:21Like, I hope not. I don't think so.