In short
NFL offseason news plus a “draft” of the 12 franchises most likely to win their first Super Bowl, aiming for a long-term wager (public celebration and dinner if a drafted team wins; stakes rise over years).
Guests
No guests. Hosts are Greg Rosenthal and Jordan Rodrigue (in-studio co-host). Jacob Goldstein appears only as an ad voice (“What’s Your Problem?”).
Key claims
- Aaron Donald could return to the Rams this season; earliest would be after training camp, with a “playoff push” timeline suggested.
- Daniel Jones is cleared to do everything and is expected to be the Week 1 starter, with cautious optimism due to Achilles recovery.
- Seahawks sale price context: $9.6B purchase by Vinad Khosla (wife Neeru Khosla controlling owner).
- Super Bowl “first-time winner” drought: none since 2017 Eagles; next since 2014 Seahawks.
- Draft picks: Texans #1, Bills #2, Chargers #3, Lions #4, Bengals #5, Jaguars #6, Vikings #7, Panthers #8, Falcons #9, Titans #10, Browns #11, Cardinals #12 (implied).
Notable examples
- Eric Weddle return path as a model for Donald’s late-season comeback.
- Aaron Rodgers “Last Rodeo” Instagram carousel behavior.
- Vikings history: missed field goal (Dante Culpepper era) and 2017 conference title loss (Case Keenum).
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Chapters
Tap a time to open that second in VOInspiration from Mount Fuji
1:30 to 3:38
Greg shares his experiences from his trip to Mount Fuji and how it inspired today's segment.
“And yes, I mentioned the base camp later on in this episode, inspired by my recent trip atop Mount Fuji.”
NFL Offseason Updates
3:38 to 4:32
Discussing the latest NFL news as teams prepare for training camp.
“We're about nine days away from the first full teams reporting to training camp.”
Aaron Donald's Return Speculation
4:32 to 6:28
Analyzing the potential return of Aaron Donald and its implications for the Rams.
“My first thought was picturing the, I think, apartment building where they were filming into the Rams practice facility.”
Record NFL Team Sales
6:28 to 10:41
Discussing the recent record sale of the Seahawks and the implications of rising team values.
“We're not allowed to do that here at the NFL.”
Aaron Rodgers and the Last Rodeo
10:41 to 13:47
Exploring Aaron Rodgers' recent social media post and what it might signify for his career.
“And I remember, I mean, I covered the Panther sale.”
First-Time Super Bowl Champions
13:47 to 14:00
Introducing the upcoming segment on teams that have never won a Super Bowl.
“We're going to have a fun segment for you.”
The Parity of the NFL
14:00 to 14:52
Discuss the surprising number of NFL teams that have never won a Super Bowl.
“Doesn't that seem like a lot of teams to have never won the Super Bowl?”
The Parity of the NFL
15:51 to 16:43
Discuss the surprising number of NFL teams that have never won a Super Bowl.
“This is Jacob Goldstein from What's Your Problem?”
Super Bowl Winner Draft Stakes
16:43 to 18:51
Introduction to the draft of teams likely to win their first Super Bowl.
“And as I mentioned, 20 of 32 teams have won the Super Bowl, but there's not as many first-time winners as you would think.”
Choosing the First Pick: Houston Texans
18:51 to 20:51
Discuss the rationale behind choosing the Houston Texans as the first pick.
“It'll give an extra little wrinkle to, you know, if we get to a conference championship weekend this year and one of our teams is still left.”
Show all 22 chapters
Evaluating Teams: Buffalo Bills
20:51 to 23:28
Analysis of the Buffalo Bills and their chances for a Super Bowl win.
“That would have been my number one overall pick.”
Draft Strategy: Chargers and Beyond
23:28 to 28:00
Discussing the Los Angeles Chargers and the overall strategy for drafting teams.
“So I think this is a team that organizationally I feel confident in.”
Analyzing Justin Herbert's Potential
28:00 to 29:09
Learn about the confidence in Justin Herbert's future as a leading quarterback.
“I want to know that they could repeat this type of, of excellence as well.”
The Rising Lions and Their Stability
29:10 to 30:58
Explore why the Lions are seen as a successful and stable team in the NFL.
“stafford fell all the way to seven which was stupid i i uh it was just for this season only but I could say when I'm wrong.”
Joe Burrow's Impact on the Bengals
30:59 to 33:08
Understand the significance of Joe Burrow and the challenges facing the Bengals.
“And like they're they're boring at this point.”
Jaguars' Competitive Edge and Future
33:09 to 35:35
Discover the Jaguars' potential and the impact of their coaching and ownership.
“And the ownership, it's been well documented.”
Vikings: A Frisky Team with Potential
35:36 to 37:54
Discuss the Vikings' organizational strengths and their quest for a Super Bowl.
“because every quarterback gets paid towards the top, you know, that's tricky.”
Panthers: Rebuilding with Promise
37:55 to 42:02
Learn about the Panthers' rebuilding efforts and future prospects under new leadership.
“But overall, like they got that stadium built.”
Analyzing Teams for Future Championships
42:02 to 45:02
Learn about the strengths and weaknesses of various NFL teams in their pursuit of a Super Bowl.
“And so I think that now, though, this is an organization that's not just sort of a magic moment away.”
Quarterback Prospects and Team Dynamics
45:02 to 48:52
Explore the quarterback situations and organizational dynamics of the Titans and Browns.
“I'm going to go with the Tennessee Titans here.”
The Struggles of the Arizona Cardinals
48:52 to 53:06
Discuss the Cardinals' disappointing history and current rebuilding efforts.
“They will make that argument that their roster is that player away at that point.”
Draft Recap and Predictions
53:06 to 54:22
Review the draft picks and speculate on the future of the teams discussed.
“with your hometown Cardinals as the last pick.”
Transcript
Automatic transcript. May contain errors.0:00Gregg Rosenthal:This is an iHeart Podcast. Guaranteed Human. This is Jacob Goldstein from What's Your Problem? When you think about discovering small brands, what store pops into your mind? Well, it should be Walmart. Seriously. Walmart has thousands of small brands, and they're all in one place. Just go online or in-store, discover, and shop. It could not be easier. Every one of these brands has a real story and real people behind it. They're true American success stories, and you can find them all at Walmart. Discover thousands of small brands at Walmart.com today.
0:43Welcome to NFL Daily, where we're back at the base of the mountain. I'm Greg Rosenthal here in the Chris Wessling Podcast Studio. Great to say that name. Great to say the name of my friend, Jordan Rodrigue, fresh off a starring role, doing a great job hosting the show a week ago. Are you ready for season three of NFL Daily?
1:05Gregg Rosenthal:I'm fired up for season three of NFL Daily. It really never makes me appreciate your job more than when I have to sit in that chair for multiple shows. That was a terrifying and exhilarating experience. And I like where I'm sitting right now. Yes, it's very egocentric of me to call this season three just because it happens to be when I'm back from vacation. But yeah, we started. I think that's fair. Your name's on the show. In mid-July a couple of years ago. So we thank everyone. And yes, I mentioned the base camp later on in this episode, inspired by my recent trip atop Mount Fuji. We're going to rank the teams who have never won a title most likely to reach the summit.
1:49Gregg Rosenthal:you see what i did there it never worked for those people but maybe it could work for us um 48 hours ago i was still on mount fuji and i i this is sad i i listened to your shows after um i got back down and you guys were like oh he you know you can't unplug from football i was pretty unplugged until the weekend but i have to admit i was on the top of fuji that the sun's coming up were way above the clouds. It's just beautiful. It was pretty exhilarating. And one of the thoughts I had just sitting there, it's total quiet. There's a lot of people up there. It was, it's really weird. I have a podcast in two days.
2:32What are we going to talk about?
2:34Gregg Rosenthal:Of course. 48 hours from then. Of course, that thought just crystallizes into your brain. The time zone being 14 hours gave me a little extra time, but it was like, huh. And so what we're going to do, We're going to talk about the teams that will be reaching the summit for the first time. It's amazing. Sometimes now I've gotten to know you. I'm pretty good friends over the last couple of years, Greg. And I've noticed your off seasons and your trips. I feel like pretty inspired by them. Honestly, if you'll excuse like a little earnest moment. It's you just go do stuff like you just summited Mount Fuji, for example.
3:08Gregg Rosenthal:Like you just go and your family, you guys just go and you do stuff and you experience things and you get inspiration from things. I mean, really, this inspired the segment we're doing today. Hey, I mean, you'll take inspiration wherever it comes from. I am very sore. They don't tell you that coming down the mountain, sneaky, maybe harder. You didn't just roll? Sneaky, maybe harder than going up it. But I'm sure we'll be sprinkling in little bits of Fuji and the trip over the next few weeks. But we will do some news before doing our rankings of the day. We're about nine days away from the first full teams reporting to training camp.
3:47So this is the last truly quiet week of the NFL offseason. We think. You never know. Something could pop up. But the first week or the last week, rather, where teams will not be showing up. Some rookies are showing up a little earlier in that. But those are the Hall of Fame teams. And then the rest of the teams are all working out and will be daily by then. They show up by July 28th. But let's get to the news, starting with your Rams. Aaron Donald over the weekend working out at the Rams facility. This was Friday. TMZ with the scoop. That's how you know it's true. They've got pretty good accuracy lately.
4:24It's just amazing they're breaking football news. In full pads, any thoughts about whether this means he's back or not?
4:32Gregg Rosenthal:My first thought was picturing the, I think, apartment building where they were filming into the Rams practice facility. That was a much discussed topic when they first opened that new facility about what if people just got up into some of these apartments that were all around the facility and started filming. I think that this is a real possibility. I've thought that Aaron Donald could come back for quite some time. The reason I think that is less so some of the reporting and some of the excitement around this particular offseason, but more so the Rams tried to trade for Miles Garrett in 2022.
5:06Gregg Rosenthal:And part of that rationale was to bring Aaron Donald, like this player who he'd always really admired from afar and really like basically stave off any retirement thoughts from Aaron Donald, who started thinking about life after football after winning that first Super Bowl. So I think this is really exciting. But I also knowing Aaron Donald a little bit, knowing his his his habits, he does work out at the facility a lot. Now, this is a little different because he had pads with him, which was pretty cool, I think. But he does work out there pretty frequently throughout the course of the offseason.
5:40Gregg Rosenthal:And even in season, people will see him around the facility. So I'm like, I think that this could actually happen. I don't think it actually is going to be a real thought or a real conversation until we're way into the offseason. Excuse me, way into the regular season, even like post-trade deadline, November, starting to get his legs under him for real. This is like sort of an Eric Weddle vibe to me. Okay. Less so I want to spend an entire training camp after being retired with it. It's just not, I just don't see him being in training camp or anything like that. I figured training camp. Yeah. Like the earliest possible Aaron Donald return would be after training camp, but before the season, but hearing that he could potentially show up for like the playoff push, the end of the regular season does make more sense.
6:28If I, you know, I'm not a betting man. We're not allowed to do that here at the NFL. But if I was, I would say I expect the Aaron Donald in Rams colors this year on the field. And Adam Schefter, for what it's worth, said on Pat McAfee on Monday that Aaron Donald just wanted to see how it felt with pads on. And he just he just left it at that. That was his report.
6:48Gregg Rosenthal:Yeah. I mean, like you, I think this will happen. Truly, I do. But I don't think it would happen until like I mentioned the Eric Weddle path. He joined the team in what was it early December or late, excuse me, late December, worked his way from practice squad into starting in the Super Bowl. But they gave him time to do it. He took the time to actually see if it was going to be the right thing for him. And it worked out in a very storybook way. And I think Aaron Donald knows exactly what his plan would be in that case. Why play potentially 20 games when you can play six to nine or whatever it would be, depending on their playoff run.
7:23Also in the news, Daniel Jones reported to be cleared to do everything. I believe this was from Stephen Holder of ESPN and just kind of puts a stamp on a story this offseason we've been following that he's been a little ahead of what we would have expected. And yeah, the opening of training camp, he will be allowed up. I bet they still won't have him in pads too often, but he basically is ready to go. And it just confirms something I've been thinking, which is I'd at this point be surprised if he wasn't the week one starter.
7:57Gregg Rosenthal:Yes. And as we remember from some of these Achilles tear recoveries over the last couple of seasons, return to action doesn't necessarily mean return to full performance. So I would still exercise a lot of, I think, cautious optimism in terms of what he would actually be capable of doing or the level of play. but it's kind of a miracle some of these surgeries now and the way that they're getting players back on the field faster than ever absolutely insane I'm curious about how all of this is going to go I also was on Riley Leonard film study watch last year, you gave me that really glorious gotten a lot of mileage out of this you gave me that really glorious assignment and I was happy to do it for the show I'd do whatever it takes for the show I didn't think he was that bad So if you need a patch, if you need a patch fill in guy for a little bit, fine.
8:48Gregg Rosenthal:That's fine. Anthony Richardson still on the roster. We'll see if that's the case. Week one, the Seahawks were sold while I was gone. Actually, over the weekend. The venture capitalist Vinad Khosla. First time I've heard the name out loud, so apologies if I got it wrong. $9.6 billion is the sale price. In some research materials I conducted for this very moment, I found out that Kossla prefers the term venture assistant. Doesn't like the term venture capitalist. I mean, if you're able to buy a$9.6 billion team, I feel like, you know, just embrace the capitalist. That screams capitalism. Yeah, it's like, you might not be able to avoid the title there, man.
9:33Probably the most interesting things about this, because obviously don't know much about this man, that his wife, Neeru Kossla, will be the controlling owner. In general, it's the family that's running it, according to Kostla. But his wife is going to be the one representing the team at league meetings and whatnot. So that's who we'll get to be familiar with, assuming they get approved. And that he was a minority San Francisco 49ers owner, as recently just bought into the team like a year ago, like 3 % of the team, and will have to sell that stake in the 49ers before he is officially confirmed.
10:11But yeah, this is the biggest price ever for an NFL team. It is crazy to think that the Waltons of Walmart, and this is the kind of money that you now need to have to get into the NFL, which I don't feel great about, bought the Broncos four years ago now for under$5 million.
10:31Gregg Rosenthal:Billion. Billion dollars. Five million. That would be inflation. For under$5 billion. And now we're almost to 10. Yeah. Yeah. And I remember, I mean, I covered the Panther sale. I covered the process and the tax, the different tax possibilities in the two different states and like all of these different things that factored into that sale. And you're not even looking at half of what that cost. This is something like four billion, four and a half billion at the time. And now it's only it's been less than a decade since that sale went through. This is already also three billion more than the commander sale.
11:072.25 billion, 2.275 billion for David Tepper in 2018, which just goes to show as much.
11:15Gregg Rosenthal:It's crazy inflation. It well, and it's not great because you now have to be able to put together these consortiums of it's like the rest of society. It's almost tame to think back to the types of people who could try to buy NFL teams before. And in theory, it would be like someone who really hit it big and was from that town or had some connection or just always wanted to run a team. And they didn't even look at it necessarily as a way to just like print, print money. Whereas now it's just the billionaires are running every aspect of society. And you have to be ultra, ultra, ultra, ultra, ultra, ultra, ultra rich to even consider getting into buying an NFL team.
11:56And the reason to do it is you'll always be able to sell for a profit. Except the Green Bay Packers. There you go.
12:04Gregg Rosenthal:Hold on, guys. Speaking of which, former Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers. We'll end the news here. I just thought this was cute. You know, had an Instagram post over the weekend. He got together with a bunch of his teammates with the Steelers, including DK Metcalf, Michael Pittman, Roman Wilson was there. Skoranek, I think, was there. A whole bunch of people. With the hashtag, like, last rodeo. And they're all in, like, cowboy gear. But the reason I wanted to mention it was the first picture he posted was very fuzzy. And then people made fun of him. And then a few hours later, he just posted a clearer version of that same picture.
12:48But left up the original fuzzy one because it had the other ones in the carousel. It's just a very old guy move there. Yeah, boomer.
12:54Gregg Rosenthal:Boomer move. I can just see this happening in, like, December, January, whatever. he's on the pat magothy show and they ask him about one last rodeo and and you know so that really means you're done after this right and then aaron rogers very coyly sort of smirking at the camera and saying well that could have just meant that i was talking about uh last the last week off before training camp you know and then in the summer last rodeo of the summer i could totally did you like my impression uh that was pretty good that was um unfortunate um I would say not pretty good. Well, you will never unhear it now.
13:34Gregg Rosenthal:You're welcome. I like that he's branding his final season. It just makes the whole thing official. His former teammate, by the way, Isaiah McDuffie, signed a one-year extension with the Green Bay Packers. How about that at linebacker? Let's take a break. Why not? It's the cleanest time to do it. We're going to come back. We're going to have a fun segment for you. Twelve teams in NFL history have never won the Super Bowl, Jordan. Mm-hmm. It seems like too many. Doesn't that seem like a lot of teams to have never won the Super Bowl? There's a league of 32 teams, and there's still 12 that have never won the Super Bowl?
14:10This must be the league of parity?
14:12Gregg Rosenthal:Yeah, I mean, when you look at how many appearances many of them have, it makes a little bit more sense. Four teams have not made any appearance. Yes. And yes, that includes some new teams like the Jaguars and the Texans. But they're not that new. Like, they're 25 years old or whatever by now. Try harder, guys. Come on. We don't have as many first-time winners as you would think. More on that in a second. But we are going to draft with some serious stakes here, Jordan. The team's most likely to win their first ever Super Bowl back in the year.
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16:50back on NFL daily back from Japan back off Mount Fuji shout out to uh one of my best friends Dave Dave Bennett best man at my wedding who I climbed uh Fuji with and uh who also is very sore I think a few days later as I as am I when I when I was atop the mountain Jordan I thought all right what's what's the first segment I can come up with to use this as content? And as I mentioned, 20 of 32 teams have won the Super Bowl, but there's not as many first-time winners as you would think. We have not had a first-time winner of the Super Bowl since 2017. That was the Eagles. That was the first time they won.
17:34The Seahawks were the last one before that in 2014. Both those teams have doubled up now. They each have two. there's only been two first-time winners since 2010. So it doesn't happen too often, but there are 12 teams eligible to be drafted in this draft of the teams, the franchises most likely to win their first Super Bowl. And if this happens, Jordan, the team that we drafted for us will earn us a prize. I don't know. Have we finished deciding what the prize is going to be?
18:06Gregg Rosenthal:Well, at minimum, we do know that it is public celebration on NFL Daily. Yes. And also dinner. Okay. Now, I suggested that as we continue to go, if, you know, as the years go by, we just simply raise the stakes. So at one point, one of us is going to owe the other a kidney. Okay. But, you know, the stakes will just increase as time goes if our teams don't win. Okay. So here are the terms. We're drafting these 12 teams. We'll each end up with six. It could take years. We are going to have to keep NFL Daily going at the very least until one of these teams wins the Super Bowl. So if it takes it's been nine years since the last first time when it takes another nine years, you're locked in.
18:49This is this is bonding.
18:51Gregg Rosenthal:I'm so here. This is binding and bonding. But I'm excited. It'll give an extra little wrinkle to, you know, if we get to a conference championship weekend this year and one of our teams is still left. The drama will be up there. We held a random selection of who got the first pick before it happened. It was legit, right? I did not want you saying it was not legit. We had a random number generator. You guys will never believe who gets the first pick. Our producer, Quab, witnessed it, so there was no chicanery, but I did get the first pick. I wasn't going to just be good and give it to you because in this case, there was one team I wanted more than the rest.
19:33Can you guess which team that I really wanted the first pick for?
19:39Gregg Rosenthal:I think you're going Bills here. I am not. Oh, I am going with the Houston Texans because ultimately you so much right now. I want to annoy you. That's number two. Number one is I want to be on the side of my son and something that I can root for. I don't want even just a small bit of me mildly annoyed when the Houston Texans win the Super Bowl this year. And then I evaluated this in a few different ways. But the most important things are ownership, coach, GM, quarterback. Ownership has been pretty stable. I'm not going to put them in the top, but it's been stable. Let this group execute their vision.
Read the full transcript
20:20But we've done the GM rankings. We've talked about the coaching. That's as good a coach-GM combo as there is in the league. I believe in CJ Stroud. Like I'd rather have like a top five quarterback. Sure. But, but you add all those together. And even if my son's Rudy interest was not involved, they would easily be my top two, but I actually think they would be my first pick. Cause this is not a one year pick. If it was most likely to win this year, maybe the bills are a little ahead. Maybe, maybe not. But if you're giving me five, five years, I like this Texans squad.
20:51Gregg Rosenthal:That would have been my number one overall pick. I had a few. That's why I wanted the one pick. So first of all, how dare you? Second of all, I agree with everything you're saying. When I was looking at the sort of tiers that I would rank these teams in, I was thinking about teams that had, in this top tier of draft choices, above average to elite quarterbacks with at least five prime seasons ahead of them. And C.J. Stroud is obviously above average and could be, in his career, elite. and we've seen flashes of elite play from him. I really appreciate that we were having, I think a little bit more nuanced conversations about CJ Stroud through the year and into the off season because I think that a lot of people just totally wipe out the fact that he had no run game.
21:40Gregg Rosenthal:They blame everything on either the offensive line or on CJ himself when establishing that run game and sort of reestablishing what sets him up for success is going to be really important for him this year. And we've seen true superstar potential from him. So I think that's a really high upside pick. And I also was looking at ownership. I was looking at, does your head coach give you an edge or, or what, or a premier coach on your team, give you an edge in, in some way. And, or does the quarterback do enough to lift the floor of the coach? And in that case, I think you can know who I'm talking.
22:15He's officially above average CJ Stroud, by the way, because he came in 15th on the NFL daily 32 quarterback rank that came out over July 4th week. When we were both off,
22:25Gregg Rosenthal:you just buried it. You, you, you just dropped it. You know, that, that, that 4th of July holiday news dump. Cause you knew people would yell at you. No, no, I didn't put the rankings up until today. Actually, you know, that's, it was going to sit up there for five or six days. I was trying to think of a good spot for it. But yes, there are a lot of people angry about CJ Stroud. They thought he was too high. Actually. Wild to me. There's a lot of Jaden Daniels. like he's too low there at 13. Washington Radio wants to talk to me. They only want to talk when they're mad about one of your rankings.
22:55But yes, I had a feeling both of us had the Texans number one. And so that's why I made sure it was legit. You are up with the number two overall pick.
23:03Gregg Rosenthal:I'm going Buffalo Bills here. Obviously, the Josh Allen factor falls right into my category of above average to elite, in his case, elite quarterbacks. And I believe with at least five prime seasons ahead of him, I think that we have yet to see truly if there is a real advantage and an edge that Joe Brady gives to this offense, gives to this team as a head coach. I do think he gave them a real shot at an edge as an offensive coordinator. I don't know that I worry as much about the front office understanding that if they have the coach and the quarterback set into place, then either the front office has got to evolve and pivot in certain ways or ownership will make a change and reinstall different people in that regard.
23:47Gregg Rosenthal:So I think this is a team that organizationally I feel confident in. Famously, they have agonizing reasons as to why they have never actually summited Mount Fuji here. But I think that in terms of teams that are built to do this, to finally get over the hump, it's not just that I think they are. It's also that I think they have to okay they have no other choice yeah i mean i'm interested when you're thinking about the different factors and yeah they would have been second for me too it's mostly about josh allen yeah and just they've done it like they have been in the divisional round six straight years i don't know if are you into analytics a lot of analytics talk with like the nba these days jalen brown are you asking me if i'm if i'm into analytics so here's some you've known me for how Yes, Greg, I'm into analytics.
24:38It's for the listener, you know. Here's some analytics. Six straight division rounds, right? How many teams are in the division?
24:47Gregg Rosenthal:Six. No, total. In the NFL, how many teams make it to the divisional round? Oh, two. Yeah. Two, it's a divisional round. I'm saying in the entire NFL, eight teams. Eight teams. Oh, I thought you were saying how many teams. Yeah. All good. So, eight teams. We have to rephrase your question. Dave made it six straight, right? Yes. I would say analytics would say you do that two more times. That's eight times you're due. You know, you're just up. If you make eight straight, you're bound to win one of those on average. How many times over the next two weeks do you think you're going to roast me for misunderstanding your question?
25:25Not many because I have so many more vulnerable positions. But I'm curious and we'll keep going. But I am curious when you were thinking about coach, GM, ownership, quarterback. To me, this is a different exercise than, you know, just ranking the teams this year. I'm curious how you slot this. Because I put quarterback at the top. Is by a decent amount the most important. I think for this exercise, I actually think ownership might be second. Just barely ahead of coach. And then GM front office. Sorry to all the gentlemen out there. That would be lower. Coach would be a little closer to ownership and then GM would be less.
26:08Gregg Rosenthal:For me, it was a sliding scale, right? If there's a proven track record of success or there's a proven real collaboration with the quarterback, regardless of whether the quarterback is elite, I think that the quarterback and coach tandem is a sliding scale when it's not a totally elite quarterback. And similarly, I think that ownership and executive team are also a sliding scale, just depending on how good the quarterback is. So ultimately, the quarterback is absolutely of the utmost importance for me. But we'll go later on in this draft, a team that I have sort of in the middle of all of this.
26:43Gregg Rosenthal:I don't buy into their head coach at all, but I do buy into the quarterback big time. And I think that lifts the floor of the rest of the organization. So that was the ultimate factor for me. Speaking of. the chargers are my pick at number three nice ownership yeah i think you just got to look at the history at best like yeah they're essentially playing another team's stadium i don't like that um but they got the quarterback they got the coach the gm is solid by you know evidence so far and obviously mike mcdaniel you know maybe gives herbert a little bit of a boost to try to like win this thing for me this year or next year, maybe while he's there and before it gets another job, like they could win now.
27:29But even if Jim Harbaugh burns out at some point, which he has done in the past, you have Herbert and two young tackles. That feels like a nice foundation for me to take them off the board.
27:42Gregg Rosenthal:Yeah. And it's also, he, one of the things that I was thinking about when we are thinking about quarterbacks and the scale of above average to elite is how many more prime seasons do I think they have? Because again, this, they could win it this year. Some of these teams could be, you know, all or nothing this year over a long period of time. I want to know that they could repeat this type of, of excellence as well. And Justin Herbert, to me, that's at minimum five prime seasons ahead of him, in my opinion. And to your point, the rest of the offensive build minus a couple of players here and there, they really are poised to continue to maximize Justin Herbert's window and and I really like it I think that with this I would have normally factored in ownership quite a bit to drop them a little bit more had it not been for the clear power dynamic that we saw Jim Harbaugh take on immediately as he got into that building so he's running he's running the franchise right so I feel a little bit more confident uh over over a long period of time that they can break through they've had two great quarterbacks back to back and they've been in the playoffs a ton in this century now where the ownership comes in have they maximized that they've only gotten to one conference title game in that whole time a lot of wild card losses and whatnot the one major regret by the way i have for that quarterback's draft is i took herbert over stafford and i wouldn't have done that if i could go again i just did it in the moment you found the horse head i left in your bed i was wrong i should have stafford fell all the way to seven which was stupid i i uh it was just for this season only but I could say when I'm wrong.
29:20I think that was the wrong choice.
29:21Gregg Rosenthal:I was not judging, but I was noticing. Yeah, you always are when it comes to Stafford. All right, you're up with number four. Okay, I have the Lions here. I think that it's not only that the Lions have an incredibly high ceiling and will continue to do so in the Dan Campbell and Brad Holmes era, it's also that I trust this new era of their ownership. I also think that they're pretty solid to very good pretty much across the board. I think solid to very good coaching. Dan Campbell had a tough year last year, as we saw. But I think he hires well. I think he identifies talent really well. The front office, every once in a while, they'll make these decisions in the draft that you're like, what the heck?
30:02Gregg Rosenthal:And then two years later, it makes more sense as to why they made those decisions. So I think that solid to very good, including an ownership across the board and including at quarterback above average with a really, really good running game can play some elite football in these key moments. That's Jared Goff. I think he's got at least five prime years left. All of these buckets were checked for me in terms of putting them at number four overall here. And I actually even had him at number three right above the chart. Yeah, I might, you know, I had to pick between two of my favorites because either way I'm going to be just wanting to fully enjoy it.
30:40I will be happy to lose this one if the Lions can get there. It was the Goff versus Herbert factor for me. But in every other way, the Lions are kind of it's crazy to be in this world where the Lions are a great example right now of a successful, stable team build. Your buddy J.J. Jansen said, like, he didn't have them that high in his interest ranking just because, like, oh, we know who the Lions are. They're good. And like they're they're boring at this point. They're boring. Like if you could have told Lions fans that five or six years ago, I still find them absolutely fascinating. I mean, that's a strong choice.
31:14I think it was a strong, I think it was a clear top four. Then it got a little trickier for me. And I'm going to go with my gut here, which is go with what we know now. Don't worry about the fact that Joe Burrow might be an ex-Bengal eventually. I'm just going to take him because they do have Joe Burrow. And I just feel like they are going to do everything in their power to control his rights and to keep him playing for them forever. And the quarterback was the most important person for me. And ultimately, they were one series away. You know, they were right there. But the ownership and the coaching and the GM are negatives, ultimately, for me.
31:56I could see it this year, though. If I was picking one of the teams to win it this year, I think they have just as good a chance as really all these teams that we've listed so far. They're in that ballpark where these five teams would be like, okay I could see it this year so I will take it because of Joe I have them a spot below in terms
32:16Gregg Rosenthal:of my personal rankings that I did but I still have them in tier one because I have the caveat in here no I don't trust the the front office I don't trust ownership I don't trust coaching the quarterback lifts the entire floor of everything and not only lifts the floor but puts them in a competitive position and so for me I agree with you and I do think he's got several good seasons great seasons left even though he's had some injury issues which people always seem to we just sort of gloss over yeah that's a fair one he's got some injury issues and but I do think that he is when he's healthy and when he's playing you know like the brand of football that we know him to play he is such a organizational catalyst that I still had him in my top six basically now I had the Bengals at six, but still I had them because of his abilities and because he is an elite quarterback.
33:10And the ownership, it's been well documented. You know, some of the difficulties in the Mike Brown era, and now you look at the overall record. I mean, they did make three different Super Bowls with three different quarterbacks. We're going way back to like the early 80s and in the mid 80s, But they have, you know, then also made the conference title game in addition to that Super Bowl with Joe Burrow. So that's recent history that they can overcome some of this stuff. But as you know, I've been wanting a coaching change like that. They're barely I mean, they're actually negative point differential since Zach Taylor, you know, showed up.
33:45And they're barely positive even over the last five years, which includes like those good seasons. So I would like a coaching change, but I think they'll find a way to keep Joe Burrow long term. All right. So you had someone higher than the Bengals in your ranking. Yes. I'm not going to guess who it is because then maybe it'll spoil who I take. Who is it?
34:02Gregg Rosenthal:I have the Jaguars. So I would like to pick the Jaguars at six. I had them at number five ahead of the Bengals on my personal rankings, but here they're going off the board at six. To me, this is about a quarterback who is always above average, but can play elite football, especially when paired with the correct play caller and schematic guy in Liam Cohen, who absolutely gives this team an advantage. I think that Liam Cohen hires really well, which is, was one thing that I thought was really, really important because we know that offensive play callers are going to lose their coaches a lot. I think he hires really well, Anthony Campanelli and Grant Udinski.
34:41Gregg Rosenthal:I think that as an ownership group, they've made some mistakes certainly, but also they're willing to put up a ton of money and invest a ton of money into making this organization competitive. And I do think over time I will be proven right about the quality of the front office and what they're building over there it's not something that you can just prove in one or two seasons but I think overall this organization has has already broken through into the next layer of competitiveness and I think now are it's all about building consistency and and really gearing up to understand what you are and what you are not to make it through that next glass break of contention which is Super Bowl contention.
35:24Gregg Rosenthal:And so I think very much could see them winning one in the next couple of years. Ownership I feel good about overall. The coach is a definite plus. The QB is medium. You know, he's in the middle, but, you know, because every quarterback gets paid towards the top, you know, that's tricky. But Seahawks just won with CM Darnold, obviously. Above average. That's what I'm saying. All you need is above average. Maybe, but, like, everyone – you can't call everyone above – he is above average, I would say. Yeah, I'm not calling everyone above average. I'm calling him above average. And CJ, but like. I think CJ Stroud is above average with an elite upside.
36:01Gregg Rosenthal:That's my point. CJ Stroud, to me, has more long-term elite qualities where I think he is going to, as his career progresses, be an elite in the elite conversation in this league. I think we know who Trevor Lawrence is and who he isn't. And I appreciate that when he's paired with the right play caller and playing with confidence like we saw last year when they were absolutely destroying these teams. I really think that that is a really good marriage and similar arguments made for the other teams we have ranked higher than the Jaguars, including Detroit and Jared Goff, and including Josh Allen and maybe not being put into such risky positions and having a play caller who will maximize his abilities.
36:43I don't feel like I know who Trevor Lawrence is yet still, just because it's so streaky. and he played so well.
36:51Gregg Rosenthal:I think that's who he is. Right. That's how I've always assumed him to be. And to me, that made him a pretty average player overall. He played so well down the stretch last year. And because it was Liam Cohen, if that's just the new Trevor Lawrence indefinitely, then I would have him even higher than wherever he ended up on our quarterback's board, for instance. I think he went 12th or 13th. He has a chance to be a top 10 guy, but I had him sixth, so I had him in a very similar spot. They, of course, came out of the gates swinging, made the conference championship game in their second season, and then also in their fourth season.
37:28But they have never been to a Super Bowl. One of the teams, and of course, with Blake Bortles, they made it back to a conference championship. So never been to a Super Bowl. One of the four teams that have never done that. All right. I'm up. We're now in the back half of this draft. This is where it gets a little tricky for me. I'll go the Vikings who are generally in the mix. I think the Wilf ownership, you could accuse them of being a little, maybe almost two hands off that they're out of the building. But overall, like they got that stadium built. I give them a little credit for that pat on the back.
38:01The coach is a yes. And so the offense is a yes. And I care more about offense than defense. Like they're not a poorly run organization. is this current build like that close to winning the Super Bowl? If you got top 10 quarterback play, yeah, I don't think you're like that far off in a draft or two, but it's ultimately like a vote for Kevin O 'Connell here. And just the general, as teams, cursed teams go, like the Vikings are not the Browns and the Jets. You know what I mean?
38:32Gregg Rosenthal:Yeah. They are the frisky team, to use your words, that'll break your heart in the end, but at least they're in the mix. So I'm going to have some fun here with the Vikings. I like this pick. They were the top of my all the rest, right? Because I do trust long term the organization. I just don't trust the quarterback position right now. And I don't trust the decision making around the quarterback position right now. Once they get the guy that they're going to go with long term and then he's actually on the field, then I have all the trust in the world and what that's going to look like. It's just the process of it because I can't trust that yet.
39:07Gregg Rosenthal:they're they're seven for me on my board too they're the top of the middle tier for me because i really like the organization overall i think they have really sound logical smart decision making throughout i think that to your point the coach is an advantage and i think he hires well brian flores is one of the best hires made by any head coach over the last you know some odd seasons And I think that retaining talent like that is also important. That shows that this organization is competing and wants to win. They, you know, of course, made all those Super Bowls and broke their fans' hearts way back in the 70s.
39:46So they're very close to not being on this list. It's been a long time since they have been back there. Of course, the famous missed field goal with that season with Dante Culpepper. that sends them out. Gary Anderson, was it? And then getting to the conference championship game in 2017 and getting the doors blown off them with Case Keenum. So they have yet to reach the summit. They would be high on my rankings of teams that would have the most fun reaction to winning a Super Bowl.
40:19Gregg Rosenthal:I know. Like the fans, see everything. All right, who's up next for you? So with pick number eight, I'm going to go with the Carolina Panthers here. and my tiers they're the second in my middle tier uh of this entire exercise right and my middle tier for me is either or either no quarterback in terms of the vikings or big questions at quarterback which i think is fair that we still are wanting to see bryce young sustain the success that he ended the season last year with um and then also i like the direction of the organization That had to be a quality here that maybe they've had harder times or whatever, but I can see forward progress.
41:03Gregg Rosenthal:I can see them building blocks and putting things together in a way that I agree with, that I buy into. I think that David Tepper, after a lot of bumps along the way and mistakes along the way in terms of decision making and pivots and things like that, really has found the answer here with this trifecta or triumvirate between, you know, Dan Morgan and Brant Tillis and Dave Canales and the way that specifically they all work together, the way that they've built out, they've taken one of the, one of the franchises that was still so behind almost every, if not every other franchise in the NFL for so many years into this modern era of football and so far behind and finally have rebuilt it into something that's not just makes sense in terms of their infrastructure analytics and scouting and the way that they they have their processes but also is competitive with some of the better teams out there and so I think that when that happens you can really really trust the direction of the organization now you need they've had some of the most fun seasons I think we've ever seen in terms of a run to the Super Bowl that 2015, you know, undefeated that Cam Newton season was like one of the most things, fun things I think any of us have ever watched in that game in the Super Bowl and heartbreak at the end.
42:24Gregg Rosenthal:Right. And so I think that now, though, this is an organization that's not just sort of a magic moment away. It's an organization that's the floor is lifted throughout. And I'm just curious more about the quarterback. Yeah. You got to squint hard to see them win a title right now. I mean, that's going to be true for all. Yes, this is over time. Yeah, that is remaining. I didn't write many notes on them because I just figured you were drafting. Yeah, well, that's just like, I know. No, they actually would have been next up for me, too. The coach, GM, quarterback, even ownership. If Tepper has learned, it's all like, OK, I'll give you some.
43:01OK, middle of the pack for an office has potential or something. But to win a title, you need a lot of things to come together. It's a good it's a good shout out that they've had two of the most entertaining Super Bowl losers, unfortunately, in NFL history, because that that Jake DeLome team and that Super Bowl specifically where they lost to the Patriots, like they were so close to not being on this list. Falcons have something in common with them getting close to the Tom Brady team in the Super Bowl. But they're starting from scratch essentially now. I'm just taking them next a little bit on the ownership and just they've always been a little more in the middle.
43:41And I know it doesn't really matter for this current build, but you have, I think, good ownership and the stadium and everything. And there's not anything that is there right now. I don't know if it's going to have much to do with their next Super Bowl or not. But on a long enough timeline, I feel like they're the horse I'm picking next.
44:00Gregg Rosenthal:Yeah. You know, as an aside, one of my favorite things about watching all the World Cup coverage over the last several weeks is the marveling over the stadiums. And when, like, the BBC comes in and they'll do, like, a full-on breakdown of the stadiums. And I watched the one the BBC did on the Atlanta. They're calling it, you know, the Atlanta Stadium right now because of sponsorship rules with FIFA. and I just love, you know, of course, all the hits were played. The concessions. Yes. The roof. The band around the entire top. I mean, I just, I loved it because these are all things that we're like, yeah, of course.
44:34Gregg Rosenthal:I mean, we, but, but it's like a modern architectural. I mean, it is a modern architectural marvel. We're just used to it. We're going back. We're going back for the Super Bowl. And what if the Falcons win the Super Bowl in their home stadium and then win me a dinner and you just having to give me praise on NFL Daily. Yeah, and do it soon so I don't owe Greg a kidney, please. Yeah, well, that would be, what, in a couple years we're going back to Atlanta for the Super Bowl? Yeah. Let's do it. All right. Hopefully you're healthy. You have number nine. Hopefully I'm healthy. Okay, you just picked nine.
45:09Gregg Rosenthal:You picked the Falcons. Okay. I picked ten. I'm going to go with the Tennessee Titans here. and this they were the top of my lower tier or my lowest tier that's three teams that are in that tier and my lowest tier has these sort of qualities that make it into what it is and how I parse out these teams either a very young quarterback or no quarterback at all so obviously cam ward who I think has a lot of potential we just don't know yet he's so young he's so early into his career and or the team organization has a history of chaos and dysfunction uh they have a history of significant turnover whether it's the front office the coaching staff or both the titans checked those boxes for me ownership issues all those things uh you know needing to trust competency those types of issues that are have that come up with with them over and over again it's just that i really like cam ward and so and i like the fact that of you can see him winning the Super Bowl.
46:09Gregg Rosenthal:I love that over a long period of time. Yeah. I mean, that's the thing is this none of these teams in these picks at the bottom here. We can see him doing it like next year. But over a period of time, I think that Kim Ward is going to be great. And I also think that this is a team that when I compare it, especially to the other two that we have left to pick from those teams being the Browns and the Cardinals. Yes. I like they've got their quarterback position figured out. They've got it settled. The other two do not. For some reason, I had the Jets written down this whole time. Sorry to Joe Willie Namath.
46:42You know, I guess I had 13 teams written down. I just like, you know, karmically and cosmically, I have not won a Super Bowl.
46:49Gregg Rosenthal:It feels right that they should be on here. Yes. Good point. They weren't even last on my list. Yeah, I agree with with everything you said. GM, you know, we'll see the coach. OK, QB. I'm not there yet on Cam Ward and we'll talk about him plenty leading into the season this is this isn't about that but I don't think you have to be there yet on him no I guess I just I just I'm talking more long term right I'm not even there long term I know I'm going to enjoy watching him play football throughout his career but if he has a Jameis like career or even like a cutlerish type career that like that wouldn't surprise me like the the range of outcomes for me I don't I'm not all the way there yet, let's say, like we have been with some rookies after their first year.
47:34And yet, you know, he had a very difficult circumstance. And if AFC South teams want to complain about the coverage that they get in general, I mean, this is the third AFC South team to come up on this list. This is a little bit wide. There's no history with this division. I mean, the Texans have never been to the Super Bowl. The Jaguars have never been to the Super Bowl. And the Titans, who have been around the longest and moved, you know, they've only made it and haven't won one. So that's partly why. There's no history with this division.
48:02Gregg Rosenthal:That's fair. Step up your game. Let's go to the Browns next. You have an ownership that's willing to spend, and maybe not in a good way. You know, I think Jimmy Haslam at this point has to wear the Deshaun Watson contract, but he's willing to spend, whether it's his NBA team now, the Bucs, or the Browns. they have the Rams first round pick next year. I mean, there's not a lot of building blocks that I would think would be there if they win a Super Bowl in the next six or seven years. If you if you squint hard. Yeah. Could Carson Schwestinger in his seventh or eighth year still be there? And and Fannin is there.
48:43And some of these draft picks like are part of the team that turn around. Yeah, maybe. I just like them essentially a little bit better than than the Cardinals.
48:51Gregg Rosenthal:their devil's advocate because i have them ranked here as well at 11 i know that their argument whether or not it's creditable or not what regardless of what we think um their argument will be after this season that they are a quarterback away their argument will be that they've drafted well enough over the last two seasons and acquired enough capital to move around and possibly get that quarterback or whatever they're going to do, they will argue that that roster is primed and ready to drop in either a rookie quarterback that they draft or somebody that they bundle picks and trade for. They will make that argument that their roster is that player away at that point.
49:39Gregg Rosenthal:I think that you could see that. You could make an argument for that. It's just that you could also make an argument for this is the Browns. We've seen them be a quarterback away or in their minds, a quarterback away. multiple times we've seen them either discard the wrong quarterback or acquire the wrong quarterback in in disastrous fashion with with those results you know in the case of Deshaun Watson and so I don't have an easy time believing their argument I understand why they would make it and I like their last two draft classes but I don't trust it because I haven't seen proof so that's that's where my my thing is like I got them near the bottom regardless of how I think they are making, in my opinion, forward progress, I don't trust that they'll sustain it.
50:20Gregg Rosenthal:So that's where I'm kind of at with them. Yeah. I mean, it's an ownership group that had a three year window at one point where they totaled four wins combined. Hot damn. So look at the last two years. Like they're great. Tingles. Eight wins in the last two years combined. And yeah, that's all old stuff. But this is the exercise we're doing here. They got a shot with this group to become relevant to win a Super Bowl. it's a long way to go they've they've never been to uh the conference championship uh as the new brown technically we're we're using all the the old browns you know they got the stats and whatnot and so then you get the heartbreak of the the conference championship game losses but the new browns have not been to the divisional round is that right yeah they have not they have not been to the divisional round yes uh all right you got the you got your cardinals are last yeah on a list of teams that have yet to reach the summit.
51:14They, according to us, are the furthest away from the summit.
51:17Gregg Rosenthal:Yes, so I'll just go back to my qualifications for this tier at which they are at the bottom. They're in the early phases of a longer-term rebuild. They either have a very young quarterback or no quarterback. In this case, no quarterback. Not only no quarterback, but no visible or apparent plan for acquiring that player, especially with their draft pick, their top five pick this year, and or history of chaos and dysfunction. History of significant turnover, whether at the coaching level or the front office level or both. Check, check, check, check, check, check. There's the Cardinals. Yeah. It bums me out because I remember.
51:54Gregg Rosenthal:I remember and I was heartbroken and Kurt Warner was going to get it done and seal the just fantastical storybook football moment that, you know, enamored so many of us. and it just it and and I learned that I'm only set up for um for heartbreak that was such a miracle team I I've said it before that I've never been more disappointed at a Super Bowl that a team lost I covered that team for nbcsports.com that week than than that specific Cardinals team I mean it's a miracle that they were there they were blown out like multiple times to end their regular season they sneak in at nine and seven and then they played electric football for three rounds and three and a half quarters and gave up a drive to a really great Steelers team so that that'll always break my heart I I'm almost more surprised that the Carson Palmer Bruce Arians Cardinals did not win a Super Bowl those were legit good teams of course they made it to the conference championship game one time but right now they're they're about as far away as you can be.
53:02But hopefully we're proven wrong. It would be crazy if you win this thing with your hometown Cardinals
53:09Gregg Rosenthal:as the last pick. Although they taught me, again, at a formative age that the thing that would be cool is probably not going to happen. Okay, we should go over our picks, right? We should. The order of the draft as written by Jordan. Thank you for housekeeping here. I had the Texans first, then Jordan takes the Bills. I have the Chargers with the third overall pick. Jordan then has the Lions. I have the Bengals. Jordan has the Jags. That was sixth. I have the Vikings. You have the Panthers. I took the Falcons. You took the Titans. My last pick, number 11, was the Browns, and you had the Cardinals.
53:49So if any of those teams win a Super Bowl, I mean, we don't even have to keep still be doing a show. If for some reason we're not, like if podcasting ends for everyone, because that's the only way way that this could happen. Like we will still be working in football and you will still owe that dinner and public praise for me. Even if it's not the Vikings, even if it's not until the Vikings or no, the Vikings win in like 2047 if it took that long for some reason.
54:16Gregg Rosenthal:I'm going to build your confidence up so much only to crush your spirit and then I'm going to make you get a matching tattoo with me. Okay, a matching tattoo. I would do that. Especially when my Texans pull it off this year and you can't even fully enjoy it because you know that I won that pick fair and square. Alright, that's it. I'm back. We're back. We are still doing three shows a week for now. We're not bringing the Daily fully back into NFL Daily quite yet. But teams are heading back to training camp next week and so are we in terms of really fully bringing back the show. We will be back with a little bit of a mailbag.
54:55If you're listening to this and it's before Tuesday afternoon, send us your questions on social media, and we'll try to answer them with Jordan Roderick and Patrick Claibon. We will see you then.
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Gregg Rosenthal and Jourdan Rodrigue draft the teams most likely to win their first Super Bowl.
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