Jets-Patriots Week 11 TNF Recap and 2024 QB Re-Draft

23:06Nick Shook:I just don't think their ceiling is as high as the Super Bowl. So I would agree with you. Yeah, it's going to depend on the matchups. But like I said, it's crazy. Nine and two. It does make me feel like, OK, we're here. We're at a point in the season where a team can be nine and two. And yeah, they only have six games left. And four of them are against the Bengals, Giants, Jets and Dolphins. Doesn't mean they're going to win all four, but they'll be favored in all of them. I give them a chance to win any game, but one and done in the playoffs also wouldn't be a surprise depending on the matchup.

23:36but I give them a chance because of their quarterback. Let's take a break and we will redraft the 2024 quarterback class after the break.

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27:47Back on NFL Daily, it's time. It's the 2024 quarterback class redraft. Okay. College tape matters. NFL tape matters more. based on the now year and a half sample size we have one of the best quarterback classes we have seen of the last 20 years we are going to redraft this much debated class and uh we'll we'll each give our our picks but i want to hear yours first who goes first out of your uh quarterbacks there's really only a couple options i would assume it's only drake may or jaden daniels but um who do you going. Yeah.

28:25Nick Shook:And you can accuse me of recency bias. I don't care. It's Drake May, like home run, slam dunk, Drake May, easy choice because of what we just described. Yeah. We've talked about him a lot on this show already. I think it's clear just because of the style of play. And I got some pushback already on social of just like, look, Jaden led his team to multiple playoff wins where he was the biggest reason by far they won those games as a rookie. And I think that's all fair. And I think if you want to say it's a little unfair and we'll just talk about these two guys now together, because I have May number one and Jaden two.

29:01You can tell me if you have Jaden two in a second, but we'll talk about Jaden. I think like the durability stuff is somewhat fair to talk about with Jaden because of his frame. And then I just think with how unique that offense was, You have to worry just a little bit more than than May long term about how he keeps improving and stacking how he is as a quarterback. That said, I think he is so sharp and has so many assets beyond his incredible athleticism. That's Jaden Daniels and his incredible accuracy that, frankly, I'm not that worried about his ability to evolve as a player and an excellent quarterback.

29:45and he would still be in my top 10 quarterbacks I want long-term. And I'm still very high on where Jaden Daniels' career goes. It's mostly just the durability and the size, which I think is a skill that makes me take May over Jaden Daniels.

30:03Nick Shook:Yeah, when we look at his career in hindsight, whenever it ends, this is a season we will completely throw out the window like a professor throws out your lowest test score at the end of the semester. Like it's, it's, it's completely incomplete. This evaluation this season, because he's been hurt three separate times. He's had a number of guys around him get hurt. The circumstances surrounding him have been terrible and quarterbacks in the league. It comes down to two things. Usually for them, talent slash, you know, ability and experience. That's all like in one bucket. And the other bucket is situation and the situation for him last year, he elevated this team, but he also had enough around him to capitalize and maximize what they were going to do that season.

30:42Nick Shook:and he did the rest of the work, which is why he had such a great season. He had an Offensive Rookie of the Year season. We all held him in high regard. This year, all of that fell apart. That does not diminish how I see him, but I do think the durability questions are valid because of his size, like you said, because of what we saw this season and his style of play, somebody who extends the play, somebody they like to run read option with, that whole dynamic element of his game. It matters long-term. Now, we said the same things about Lamar early in his career. He has missed some games, but it hasn't been as much of an issue as we thought it would be.

31:15Nick Shook:And I think the same will be true for Jaden overall. But the durability is the reason that I would put him right behind Drake May at this point after only, you know, almost two seasons. You know, I think Lamar came into the league with better pure pocket passing skills, at least that were translatable from a pro offense that he played in college, which is why I always laugh when Kirk Kerbstre just keeps talking about how much he's improved and he wasn't a pocket passer. He was always that guy. Now he has, of course, improved Lamar. that is. I just think Jaden, I want to see him in different types of offenses, but it's a small thing.

31:45By the way, if May winds up getting, let's say, top five MVP votes, that type of thing, top three MVP votes. I did a little research while that second half was going on. Second year quarterbacks to win MVP. Patrick Mahomes, and of course he didn't even start his rookie year. Lamar Jackson, Dan Marino, and then Kurt Warner, who was an interesting case because he played arena a ball and he was 28 years old, but he was a second year quarterback. That's about it. Peyton Manning came in second in the MVP as a second year player. So it's rare, like all time greatest stuff to get that high. In the end, I personally don't think May is going to wind up with the MVP, but even to get in the mix is rare stuff.

32:30And for what it's worth, now that we have more voters, you can go one through what, five on the MVP? Jane Daniels came in seventh last year. So like he he was he was in the mix last year all right is jaden your number two pick by the way i should

32:43Nick Shook:have confirmed yeah he is okay and i just want to expand that real quick um because i was thinking about top five mvp guys right now and you hate mvp discussions at this point in the season i'm just gonna throw it out there matthew stafford baker mayfield drake may jonathan taylor option number five like may is very much in that conversation oh man may's ahead of all those guys no that wasn't a specific order i was just throwing those guys out there yeah i still just the way that Herbert and Mahomes have played I'd probably have Stafford May Herbert and Mahomes would probably be my top four but Taylor Taylor is right there too okay is number three Caleb Williams for you yes it is and I think this is the end of a clear right like line of demarcation in this group because look Caleb is not super consistent over four quarters and I'm going to say the same thing about vo nix later in this group but what he has done over the last month and a half and his partnership with ben johnson makes me think that he can actually live up to expectation his fourth quarter play in some of these games is just absolutely scintillating like just injected in my veins taylor williams clutch gene i wish i could just spread it to everybody on the planet that they could perform under pressure like he does whether it's running whether it's throwing the moment is never too big for him and he has those natural abilities that, again, he doesn't necessarily show off over an entire game.

34:04Nick Shook:But God, when he scrambles and just lets that arm rip, that is special. He has an arm that is very rare. And once they harness that over the course of a full four quarters, he's going to be one of the best quarterbacks in the league as long as he stays in this track. And age matters a little bit to me here. And Caleb Williams is 23 years old. He is more than a year younger than Jaden Daniels. for instance, Drake May is almost another year younger, even than Caleb Williams, which is, which is crazy. Caleb's about to turn 24, you know, May just turned 23. So that I think bolsters May's case in general.

34:41I always thought at least coming into this season that Caleb Williams, his floor is higher than people realize that he showed more than enough as a rookie that I was like, Oh, like his floor is cutlerish, which it's kind of where he is now. Right? Like people, people will mock that, but Jay Cutler like kept getting a hundred million dollar contracts because he was like the 12th best player in the league. And sometimes he looked like, you know, quarterback in the league. And sometimes he looked like the eighth, but he wasn't the consistent guy that you want. That's his floor. I think it's going to end up being higher than that.

35:13And I think we've seen a steady improvement that like the way he plays is so special that it really can create plays that even Drake may and Jane Daniels can't make. And that he's improving on all the other stuff. like players do because they're young and the experience is going to help. And situation. To me, his ceiling still might be as high as Jaden and Drake Mays. I don't think it's that crazy to say. I just think you have to base a pick like this off of what we've seen so far. And their ceilings are still sky high. And we've just seen, I think, some of the next level processing and everything like that more than Caleb Williams to this point.

35:57But I think he, I think Bears fans feel great about him now. Maybe significantly better than they did at the starting of the season.

36:04Nick Shook:Maybe I'm wrong. Yeah. You know, you know how I know they're feeling better about it because they're getting in my DMs more when I don't rank them high enough. Okay. Speaking of which, I am very curious, and this is where it gets even more interesting. Who is number four for you? This is going to be tough, but I would probably put Bo Nix there. Okay. I did too. And I had to like really look at myself in the mirror and say, is that just because I'm afraid of the Broncos fans? And I haven't answered that question in my soul. Cause if it was my team, would I really take Bo Nix over Penix and JJ and Rattler?

36:39I don't know.

36:41Nick Shook:But at this point for what he's done, I think I would, I am a firm believer that eventually they are going to figure this out, that his lack of consistency, see his absolute disappearing acts until the fourth quarter of some of these games is just a product of them not quite getting their bearings offensively which doesn't make sense because Sean this is not Sean Payton's first year there it's not his first year with Bo Nix but there's been a difference in offensive style it's almost like they've tried to force themselves square peg into a round hole and they're now starting to pull back on that and realize maybe that's not what we should do like last year they would roll Bo out so much get him out on the perimeter and that's where he was really good you don't see that intentionally nearly as much this year I I think there's been more of a focus on the ground game, which I think at times has limited their offense.

37:22Nick Shook:It's just like they have, they don't know what they want to be. And the lack of identity has held them back until they absolutely need to turn it on. And I think that in the moments in which he turns on, you can see how special he can be. Can we see it over at least a half or maybe three quarters? I'm not even asking for all four quarters that, that combined with what I saw from him last year, save for the wild mistakes that he tended to make in the back half of last year, makes me believe that he can be there. His ceiling is not as high as the first three guys we talked about, but I feel better about him.

37:50Nick Shook:None of these guys are. No, because of the product that I've seen so far than Pennix or J.J. McCarthy, for example. I think McCarthy probably has the highest ceiling of the four remaining quarterbacks. I am including Rattler here. But Bo Nix is turning 26 in February, and he's just played a lot of football, and he will continue to improve. Of course he will. But the fact that he's played a lot of football, you do wonder how dramatic that improvement is going to be. Ultimately, I did put him fourth because I think he's proven he's an NFL QB. And that's a real thing. He's an NFL starting quarterback.

38:29He's in a perfect system for him right now. And there's every reason to believe that he will be able to improve as he goes. And ultimately, I think with the athleticism and frankly, he's made more impressive downfield throws consistently than Michael Penix. McCarthy is just a total wild card. And so we'll get to him. I agree with you with Bo at four in the end. That's that's where I went. And it wasn't just because I'm afraid of Broncos fans, but maybe.

38:58Nick Shook:No, you can come to Cleveland. I'm a man. I'm 33 to quote Mike Gundy. OK, it's five. It's five. This is hard. This is hard because are we talking about potential or are we talking about product? Because we have a very limited table size. We're talking about a redraft. So you're starting. So it's basically potential because you're starting your Nick Shook League, your team, and you have them for the next four years or whatever. You know, it's a redraft. You're drafting them. Who do I got for good? And that's why I say it's like interesting, Bo versus JJ, for instance, because JJ is more of the mystery box right now.

39:31But he is maybe a little toolsy, a little toolsier. Penix has the bigger arm. You, you, you like, I like how he carries himself. I like a lot of the things about him, but I haven't loved what's on the field as much. So who is your, your fifth guy?

39:47Nick Shook:Yeah, the mystery box could be anything. He'd even be a boat. Um, God, I think I'm going to go with McCarthy. This goes against everything that I've felt about this class. I felt McCarthy was overrated coming out of Michigan. Not, well, primarily because the whole thing about him was, oh, he's a winner. He's rarely ever lost. he does make a lot of plays he did it at michigan he's done it at times in his very brief nfl career so far where he has the athleticism to take off run and and you know pick up the key downs and i think that will benefit him over the course of his career it's just that like i i have the most recent performance in my brain right now and it burned my eyes watching that game against the ravens just the the missed throws the unnecessary this is your franchise for the next five years shook.

40:30Nick Shook:Yeah. Do I do? And yet you just took it. You just took him. Yeah. I was saying, don't overate what you just saw. Here we go. Okay. I think that's probably the right move. I wrote down Penix ahead of him. Cause I think I'm sticking to my priors. I think his floor is okay. Michael Penix. You do worry. You know, you think about his early sample size last year and that, that looked really good right off the bat. Michael Penix. And I think quarterbacks are going to have their ups and downs. And I think he's in a little bit of a lull. His floor is higher. JJ right now, I just don't know from snap to snap what's going to happen.

41:10And I do worry a little bit because he has been in that building. Everyone's like, well, it's his rookie year. It's like, okay. I mean, you did get the benefit of being with Kevin O 'Connell and being in an NFL building for a year and a half. It's not exactly his rookie year. I mean, I know Patrick Mahomes was on the field and everything, but he didn't play his rookie year. Like, I just think, let's say he was Drake May, for instance, or he was Jaden Daniels. Like, you would know it after that, you know, being in the building and stuff. Joe Burrow, you knew it in week two of his rookie season.

41:43That's all I'm saying. And so do you take what I think is with Penix a pretty decent floor? Or is he going to be at the Dalton scale line, right in the middle? That could be Michael Penix's outcome. Obviously, you hope for better because he does have limitations. I don't love a quarterback that's not consistently accurate, and that's kind of what Penix is right now. A guy who can run pretty fast in a straight line. That's not his MO at all, but the once or twice he does it, you're like, oh, you can do that. You just want to see him do it more, but it's just not natural for his game. It never was.

42:20whereas JJ McCarthy I think is a better athlete and plays with a little more aggressive. I just changed my pick. We haven't thrown the card up. I am taking McCarthy over Penix ultimately. I think I would.

42:30Nick Shook:I think the clock might have ran out on you. You did a lot of hemming and hawing. That's what I do. If the clock ran out on me, this podcast would get canceled. Too much honking. I'm taking JJ now. I talked myself into it because you know what? I don't want to aim for the middle. And I'd rather flame out with Kyle Bowler, just hoping. Oh, yeah. I love that comp. Yes. Hoping that it's actually Lamar Jackson instead of just, like, aiming for, I don't know, someone else in the middle. Yeah, at least rip the bandaid off. Yeah, instead of aiming for someone in the middle. But I hope for more for Penix.

43:08I guess that means Rattler is seven for you.

43:11Nick Shook:Yeah, but you know what? It's not a big gap to me. I would love to see the Saints trade Spencer Rattler to the Jets or the Browns and see how it works because okay I know he had a really hard crash and burn those last couple of games but the tape before was really encouraging and I was on board baby he is I mean he he was an older prospect too but he's a little younger than Penix and Knicks and I don't think his tape was much worse or much different than Penix and Nick. So maybe I'm buying the pre-draft kind of hype that I'm just grading off the draft even now because I don't think his tape was much worse.

43:50The problem was he wasn't quite aggressive enough for a guy that I think would need to play that way. And when I'm saying that size is a skill, McCarthy and Penix are much more of the build and the prototype of what you want out of a quarterback compared to Rattler. So I'm self-hating here. I'm picking on the short guys, you know, not that Rattler short, but for a quarterback, you know, relatively.

44:13Nick Shook:I mean, there are, there are shorter guys that, that are still in the league and ones on IR right now. That is a topic of conversation that we've talked about. And he was a number one overall pick. That's what I'm saying. Patriots fans. Like you can get all the way up to the number one pick and, and then you can have Kyler Murray and you can be like, not totally sure about him six, seven years later. Same thing with like Justin. I mean, with Trevor Lawrence or, you know, certainly with the Darnolds and even the Bakers in their first, you know, at times, it's no guarantee. We know now. All right.

44:42We did it. Nick shook. We had a great show. Appreciate everyone checking out the TNF preview. We will be back in the feed with my week. 11 picks with myself and Cynthia Freeland. By the way, we're back in the studio here on a Thursday night. I know that makes Chris Bona feel like a little more alive. He doesn't like it when I go home, when I'm in the home studio. Yeah, check out my picks. Six-week winning streak right now with the picks against the spread. We'll see you there.

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