NFC South Preview with Trevor Sikkema

19:07Jourdan Rodrigue:I love that. And let's stay on defense here for a minute. Maybe if it spans even across categories, because I love that you picked this. I thought the blueprint, the outside corners, JC Horn and Mike Jackson played so well as did, you know, that secondary staff and a Giro Evero, Jonathan Cooley, like got raised the floor of their safeties, I think. And particularly in the deep part of the field, I'm not talking about the intermediate middle where they were kind of a disaster. But the outside corners and sort of that shell over the back of the defense was so solid. And particularly those perimeter corners were so good, especially down the backstretch of the season, that it actively like shone a massive floodlight over everywhere else that they needed to fix this defense in order to be more compatible with the level of play they were getting out of their corners.

19:55Jourdan Rodrigue:It was the run defense. Like you said, Trevor's the middle of the field. It was getting better in the pass rush. my sort of hand in hand with all of that which I loved that they did I agree with you is that things go wrong if right and skipping right to there if this corners regress right because corner play is not always as sticky as we would like it to be in terms of year over year and the variance there and the injuries being more of a factor than even the the major factor that we see them to be already with Nick Scorton being hurt and if Devin Lloyd is not the player that he was in Jacksonville.

20:29Jourdan Rodrigue:Yeah. You know, Lee Hunter, their rookie, is going to be asked to do a lot against the run early on. And Derek Brown needs to be freed up to get that pass penetration and to affect the run pocket as well, because a lot of teams are going to run it right up the middle at them or around the side that Nick Scorton previously was. So I really feel like that is, it's so much hope and optimism. And I loved the plan that they went about. And that's my things go wrong if, is if those guys, if the plan is not what it, what we all thought it would be, because everybody they brought in maybe is not what they thought they would be.

21:00Well, that's what I had Lloyd as my most important non-quarterback. To me, he is kind of the skeleton key that unlocks this. I'm a big believer in Lloyd. I think the come up started in 2024 with the Jaguars. He's a playmaker. He's aggressive like a small red flag. I don't know what's the color between, you know, maybe an orange flag that the Jaguars were so disinterested in resigning him, really didn't even make him an offer. And yet, like, if he makes it happen, it can all work. They're starting to figure out the other linebacker spot. And that is kind of what it was very connected to what you said in terms of what's bringing me joy of this team is just it's an all vibes team.

21:40And they also did that. Like Dave Canales is, you know, hero in football is Pete Carroll. And he does. He's done a great job of making them greater than the sum of their parts and getting the vibes. And and the fact that it's year three of this regime with the front office and him and that they went for it and put their chips down is why, yeah, to me, Lloyd is so important for their defense. Who do you have as your most important non-quarterback?

22:05Jourdan Rodrigue:Yeah, well, to me, it's the tackles, right? Because Taylor Moten, even though he's working a little bit off to the side, which is great because he's dealing with the blood clots issues. And that was that's really scary. It was a he was describing it on social media as an embolism. So in his lung and they what they like to do and Ali Connelly did a great job educating all of us on this last season. If they want to continue playing that spread out 11 personnel, the tackles have to be able to move in space and really block isolation like that in a way that's very athletic. And Monroe Freeling coming in right away, instead of competing for a position, their rookie first round pick, instead of competing for a position, you know, on either side, specifically with Rasheed Walker over on the left side, both of those guys are going to have to play immediately, including Rasheed Walker is going to have to stay healthy until Ikea Quanwu can come back from his injury and perhaps compete with him on that side.

22:58Jourdan Rodrigue:It's going to be so interesting to me. And with the joyfulness, in my opinion, that Bryce Young has been approaching camp with and the reports that he's just having a fantastic camp, especially more clarity in the receivers room, those tackles become the absolutely most important non-quarterback, particularly, I think Freeling becomes the most important non-quarterback on this. Yeah, like they that is my things go wrong. If like the O-line feels a little bit like a house of cards, they're counting a lot on Luke Fortner at center who, you know, mixed reviews from his time with the Saints. I know they were happy when he filled in, but but you have a lot of injury, even just looking at their injury report in camp.

23:35Like right now, Damian Lewis is out. Robert Hunt is out. They the whole point of this Panthers build. And this is where I think the front office had to be disappointed with parts of last year was they were supposed to be like a tough team up front that could run the ball. And they're one of the worst running teams in the NFL. And yet they're so run heavy. And that's part of my scheme dream, too. It's all over the place here, Trevor. I don't know what you think of what's best for Bryce, but it's whether like, yeah, they will embrace like playing a little more tempo, spreading it out, playing fast.

24:04It's a crime to me. They were 31st in pace last year. They were one of the slowest teams in the NFL, but they did start to play an empty. They did start to go to the RPOs. they were a little more static, like kind of a Joe Burrow-ish style by the end of the year. And I think Bryce, for the most part, rewarded them in the big games. He prevented turnover-worthy plays. He prevented sacks. And I think that's the best Bryce. But like, does Canales want to work that way? Does that work with the entire rest of the offensive build?

24:32Trevor Sikkema:Yeah, I agree with Jordan 100%. I think that Merrill Freeling is probably the most important non-quarterback for the exact reasons that she mentioned. You have the injuries to both offensive tackles right now. this is a rookie coming in and you're asking, and not just a rookie, he was a true junior when he came out. So I mean, like he is a young player, one year full-time starter when he was at Georgia. So yeah, he's got all the tools, but he might have to be out there week one, you know? And so I think that that's a tough ask for any rookie. So I think he becomes really, really important. I did like the power run game from this team when they went to it and when all those guys on the interior were healthy last year, but it's got to continue obviously.

25:12Trevor Sikkema:So I think that that's, you know, The things go wrong if the obvious one is with Bryce, right? Like if Bryce sort of is the same or a little bit more up and down, like it doesn't work. Like he really has to take that next step. But other than that, I do think it's the offensive line. I will note this just because I wanted to say it because, Greg, you were talking about the Jags. I was also very surprised at how little sort of they cared about losing Devin Lloyd and like not making an offer for him. Gladstone does come from the Rams. and the Rams don't prioritize linebacker at all whatsoever. I mean, like they had undrafted free agent Omar Spade start like 16 games for them.

25:52Trevor Sikkema:We were just like, nah, yeah, no, you're good to go. And he was like, fine. You know, like they scouted them very well, but that's one of those positions that like from that regime, I kind of wonder if they think that they can just out scout sort of like the position a little bit. So maybe I'm just saying this, all of this to make myself feel better about Devin Lloyd hitting the ground running, but I have to, yeah, I have to cope a little bit here.

26:13Jourdan Rodrigue:Yeah, that team famously did not prioritize linebackers. You can tell it became way too late. And then they paid one this year, and everyone was like, hang on, they did what now? Because they hadn't in so many years. I love that point, and I think, too, the run game and the pass game have to just feel like a more complete outfit this year from this team. They have to feel like they make better sense together. When I mentioned clarity in the receivers room, you know, I love Tett McMillan and Jalen Coker as the headliners here. I want to see more from Tommy Trumbull, you know, very limited as a, you know, as a pass catcher.

26:49Jourdan Rodrigue:I think he has the ability. There were a couple of moments watching him last year where he's got wide open space all around him. And I would like him to see him to see him be a more viable option in this pass game. And Xavier Leggett, obviously, we've said this every year for the last couple of years. And I think every year we hear a lot of positive things about him, you know, kind of progressing in camp and ready to really make an impact. And I want to see it. I really want to see it. And I think with Bryce, you know, we should know Brad Idzik is going to be calling plays for the first time here.

27:21Jourdan Rodrigue:Well, that's a big one. Instead of Dave Canales. And that is absolutely huge to me because of how big of a year it is for Bryce Young specifically. and the continued like development of clarity in all of the players around him, basically saying, all right, Bryce, you got your, you got at least a three deeper receivers. You got a tight end. You, this play caller is going to try to set up stuff that you like and show us what you got. For me, I'm a Bryce believer. I have to see it. And I kind of like that based on what I was talking about with Canales, always felt like he's had a hard time, maybe almost fully committing to the Bryce style, and he's gone back and forth.

27:59And, you know, I mentioned how they built this team to be like a power rushing team. And down the stretch, at least, last season, they were one of the worst teams. And yet, Canales was so stubborn about it. They were, I think, second in the league in just like percentage of running the ball. It's not like they were leading like a ton of games in like runs and neutral situations. It's all at the very top, even though like they couldn't get it done. So maybe it'll be good for Bryce to have like a different play caller on game day in Canals and kind of just be the vibes and control the whole team because I think he's done a great job with that.

28:31I feel like I've come off a little negative because I see the roster holes here, but they are another team with a lot of variance. I already know what the answer is for Jordan's, you know, potential wins and losses here. Trevor, where do you go for like the ceiling and the floor of this team?

28:48Trevor Sikkema:So the ceiling, this is the most high variance team to me in the division okay i think the ceiling is like 10 and 7 like i think that this team can get double digit wins i think they can win the division again they don't have an international game they have an early bye week like i think that the schedule is pretty decent for them but the floor is like you know again if bryce regresses if the offensive line takes a big step back if the receivers don't manifest like all of these things could potentially happen i think the floor is like 4 and 13 like i think that this team has a big variance of where they could be And so I could see a double digit win team, but I could also see something like four or five wins with them.

29:27Jourdan Rodrigue:Trevor, I wanted to ask you, you know, this front office has restructured over the last couple of years and they think about things in terms of a lot of the modern teams, analytically driven. They're very progressive. They think about resources, depreciation of resources. If this team is tracking toward like a like that floor that you mentioned, do you think they become big time trade trade market people?

29:51Trevor Sikkema:um so what what do you what do you trademark it people in terms like ahead of the deadline if they're trending poorly do you think they say you know what look for our next quarterback yeah i i actually i actually don't like i think i i don't disagree with anything that you said because i think you set it up exactly right but i i kind of look at this team and i look at not only from like the front office perspective but also like ownership perspective too like i think they're coming off of a division win oh yeah yeah like winning that division and i just don't see them being heavy sellers unless it goes catastrophically wrong we're talking floors here yeah right i think i think almost all scenarios are just kind of like let's play the year out from a canalis perspective from a bryce perspective from a where we are with our current roster perspective i just think that they're going to let it play out more than be major sellers at the deadline they have

30:44Jourdan Rodrigue:It's going to be an interesting push and pull regardless, because if they finish where I think everybody here is going to finish, which is about the same again, and nobody's broken through yet. And especially this team is not broken through yet. I'm very interested in what the internal push and pull is going to be about. Hey, we're here. We built this. We're back to being competitive, not just on a roster level, but in terms of our organizational infrastructure, too, and our scouting and all of that. How do we push to the next one? I think that there's going to be some itchiness in there for sure.

31:14Yeah. The, the Bryce young long-term question is a big one. So we know you're, you're,

31:19Jourdan Rodrigue:I'm a Bryce believer. Kenny Pickett season. Oh my God. It could be Kenny Pickett season. They do open with the, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, hold on. We watched, we all watched the hall of fame game. No, no, no. It's Haynes King,

31:32Trevor Sikkema:baby. Yeah. It's Haynes. And like, if everything, if everything goes worst case scenario for the Carolina Panthers, at least we know. No, no, Brad Idzik can cook it up with Haines. I mean, here's the thing, though. They their floor is, yeah, picking number one overall again, just because they're the cursed injured team. And we've tried to ignore injuries when doing omens and signs. But man, it's been a brutal camp. And I was going through it this morning, too. And it's like, I know it's probably just a minor camp injury, but it's like Damian Lewis is out and Robert Hunt is out. And for now, at least like Derek Brown is out.

32:05And then you have this great Haines Kang story. And he got he hurts his hamstring on the game winning play. And so it's like, is this team just a little cursed? They do have the Falcons and Browns in their first three weeks. Good for them. Those are winnable road games, and they have a very early bye to get off to a fast start. Okay, that is the Panthers. We already did the Falcons. I disagreed with just one thing that Trevor said about the high-variance team in this division. To me, the highest-variance team is coming up right after the break. also we're giving rankings now for each of these shows.

32:42I'm in last place right now. Trevor and Jordan are tied right now for second, but Trevor's dog is winning the show so far.

32:50Jourdan Rodrigue:Marvel. Back in a few.

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34:04Trevor Sikkema:You know the feeling. You make a pick in your fantasy draft and the entire room groans because they wanted that player. Or you grab a small school rookie off waivers and you start him right before he goes off in primetime. There's no better feeling than crushing your fantasy football league. I'm JJ Zacharysson, host of the Late Round Fantasy Football Podcast. Before your draft, our players to target and players to avoid episodes tell you exactly who to circle and who to cross off. We've got data-driven analysis, historical trends, and the strategies that separate winners from the rest. And your dominance doesn't stop with the draft.

34:41Trevor Sikkema:All season long, we have our 15 transactions, 10 trends, sleepers, and the mailbag, data-driven, quick-hitting episodes to help bring home that league trophy. Listen to the Late Round Fantasy Football Podcast on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

35:01Back on NFL Daily. Talked about the potential high variance team. I think that's the New Orleans Saints. And it would have been sad if we forgot them during our division preview episode. But Trevor, we had a bad case of doing 31 out of 32 teams for different exercises this offseason. And like twice we forgot the Saints. So look, the Saints have over indexed twice on this program.

35:28Jourdan Rodrigue:I don't want to talk about it on this program. If you go on you guys, I can't. Once was me. Once was Jordan. So, you know, separate occasions. OK, that's amazing. It's pathetic. And it's also weird because if I if I went back and looked at the amount of time we've spent talking about each team, Patriots are probably number one. You know, Saints are probably number two. You know, this is a team, like I said, I always have a soft spot for or a hate when they're hateable, which they're no longer with Kellen Moore and Tyler Shuck. The Dennis Allen era was tough. But what's bringing me joy is that Kellen Moore and Tyler Shuck, they just feel right for each other.

36:05They come in together. They both grew up, I think, together as a as, you know, as a head coach and then certainly as a rookie quarterback last year. And I'll get into why I think they're so high variance. but this offense specifically to me is boom or bust. But if you had told me a year ago, there would be a world where I'd go into the season and I would think, yeah, I think there's a path to this being a top eight to 10 offense. Like what, what a crazy year it has been for the saints. So that, that, that high hope that ceiling, and I'll explain why late, you know, that, that gets me going.

36:41Jourdan Rodrigue:I have to say, I think that their floor that you're considering or they're the bottom part of their variance is actually higher in my estimation. It's mostly just they have over-indexed and injured guys. Sure. Yeah, that's fair. We're trying not to factor that in as much in this exercise. But for me, the thing that I could maybe still nitpick Tyler Shuck over, I loved him in the draft. I gave you a lot of hell for that, Greg, I know. But watching him play last year at the end of last season was really fun. He did take a lot of sacks. When he takes sacks, he just gets nailed. for me, bringing me joy.

37:14Jourdan Rodrigue:And also one of my most important non quarterback players on this team is Travis HN. And, and I think that because he can catch the ball as well as he can, he's giving Tyler Shuck that middle distance. And when I say middle distance, I'm not saying intermediate routes or anything like that, but sort of that like step between throwing the ball, the hell down the field to one of these great receivers and just dumping it down and saving yourself and not holding onto the ball to take those sacks, avoiding those negative plays in that facet. Cause I think he can be incredibly efficient when you don't use, when you don't factor in the sacks.

37:50Jourdan Rodrigue:And that's what Travis HN to me is partially there for, not just to stabilize and give clarity to their run game, which could use the help, but also in the passing game as that, as an outlet player who can mitigate pressure, he, he caught the ball very well in Jacksonville last year and he had six receiving touchdowns. So I really think that this is a needed element, not just for Tyler Shuck to continue his development, but also to like have a little bit more of that, like underneath engine power in this offense run and pass.

38:20Trevor Sikkema:Well, we're going to round out the entire offense here with what brings me joy. Cause it's Chris Olave and Jordan Tyson. Like if you guys, you know, close your eyes and think about those social media graphics with those five, like five people on it that goes, who's stopping this offense. That's how I feel about Tyler Shuck, Kellum Moore, Travis A. Chan. But to me, Chris Olave and Jordan Tyson, I think are just two unbelievably talented wide receivers that put so much stress on the defense because Chris Olave at his best. Sure, there are some teams out there in the NFL that have cornerbacks that can hang with Chris Olave.

38:53Trevor Sikkema:But how many teams in the NFL have cornerbacks that can hang with Chris Olave and Jordan Tyson when he's performing as good as he possibly can? And I know he's been banged up throughout his college career and, and sort of durability has been an issue for him up to this point, but when he is fully healthy, we saw it at Arizona state and we've already seen it through some training camp clips as well. This guy is so unbelievably tough to cover when he gets those free releases, when he can put his foot in the ground and change direction, like few wide receivers I've seen over the last couple of years.

39:19Trevor Sikkema:He was my top wide receiver in this draft. I think he landed in a great spot. And I just feel as though Kellen Moore is going to absolutely cook with these guys. So if they can stay healthy on the offensive side of the ball, this is a this is an offense that can carry you this is an offense that can carry you to double digit wins i'm really really excited for it and that combination specifically uh brings me joy with this team yeah tyson's my most important non-quarterback because to me he knocks everyone down a peg in a great way on the offense i saw nick underhill who i really respect who covers the saint said like he could see a scenario watching tyson and he's been healthy in camp which has been great to see, like being the best player on the team at some point this season.

40:02And if there's a world where that happens and then Juwan Johnson and Vele, and we talked about Barry and Brown on our last show, who's just like, you know, these depth pieces, these extra Alvin Kamara, I'm never giving you up, man. Like he's still the third down guy. Like he's going to be there on passing downs and he's reportedly having a good camp, a little more motivated. Like he could help knock all those guys down with an offensive line that has some ceiling. And that's where I get to the point of like, yeah, I think that's like a top eight to 10 offense. Might be over my skis a little bit.

40:35Jourdan Rodrigue:I mean, but the way that we've seen Tyler Shuck throw the football and likes to throw the football and trust his receivers he had last year already. I worry a little bit. I'm curious, you know, Trevor, I know you do a lot of scouting of draft prospects. And Jordan Tyson played enough in the slot to make me really interested in what he can do as a power slot at the NFL level. and the mismatches that that brings, where that does concern me is Kellen Moore like showed no regard for Devon Vele across the middle. So like, I don't want him to be hit on those, right? I'd like him to stay healthy durability-wise.

41:10Jourdan Rodrigue:So I think good balance there probably to strike. Yeah, Shuck was awesome over the intermediate part of the field. He did not, like he was one of the least effective deep ball throwers in the league. People watching, Sam's can't, they're not even trying going like deep down the field. So that is something to watch, that it's been a lot shorter. for Scheme Dream. I mean, I wrote the same name that you did. You know what I'm going to do. Okay. The biggest Brandon Staley fan. The Staley Sons is back. I was going to say a bad word, but the Staley Sons is back. Okay. Here's the thing. You guys have to go.

41:40Jourdan Rodrigue:I know we're all fans of him here on this show, but my friend Cody Alexander, and I'm talking about Cody Alexander. Okay. We are fans of him on this show. Go read his piece in Match Quarters where in awesome detail, he explains how Brandon Staley did something that very few teams did regularly last season, especially with the increase of heavy personnel, 12 personnel and 13 personnel. So either two tight ends or three tight ends on the field last season that is going to continue to permeate across the league this year. Brandon Saley played base. He played in his 3-4 base and he continued to have his split field coverages behind it, meaning one coverage on one side of the field and another coverage on the other side of the field.

42:20Jourdan Rodrigue:And he basically said, you can run against us in heavy personnel. You can pass against us in heavy personnel, but because I can stay in base and have heavier guys come stop the run and his linebackers that have really come along and some of the, the big slots that he's been playing for, you know, at safety. And we also are going to continue to keep my coverages funky because his defense has always been a coverage focused group. That is something that teams are going to copy all across the league this year because it worked. That defense went from number 21, 28 and DVOA to start the year. was about the middle of the NFL, halfway through the year.

42:57Jourdan Rodrigue:And then in the last quarter of games, ranked number three in DVOA defensively and finished in number 13. I'm high on this defense. I'm high on the Chase Young-Essance as well. Jonas Sanker was one of my guys last year. Justin Reed being there, Kool-Aid McKinstry. It's all to me, really, really high potential to continue to evolve the way that they were last year. And really, I think once again, teams seeing this and starting to copy again things that this defensive coordinator is doing the only thing that concerns me with staley is like can he stay a step ahead and continue to evolve but they did coach up the defense well do you think they have the horses

43:35Trevor Sikkema:trevor i think that's the that's a big question right like first of all i love that jordan brought up sanker because i thought he was excellent last year asked to do a lot of different things um i was a i was a pretty big fan of his when he was coming out i felt as though he was being a little bit slept on in that safety uh class and they used him in a variety of different ways he was playing very fast very confidently um and i love what they can do with him in the nickel i think that when you talk about guys who can stay in base defense a lot of times it's because you have these players who can play a couple of different roles right like your base could be you know if you have if you have a slot defender that you love or a safety that you love like sometimes like they can actually play at that second level so it's kind of like you're in base but you have a little bit of speed there still.

44:16Trevor Sikkema:So you have to have that versatility and kind of to Greg's question about having the horses. That's my big question of like, things go wrong if with this team, if the defensive line can't be more disruptive. Now they finished last year 11th in sacks, but just 26th in total pressure. So the consistency wasn't there for this team. It's largely the same exact group. Brian Brazee's out. You're plugging Christian Miller in. And I love Christian Miller, but like the reason why I love Christian Miller is he's a run defender. Like, and I remember even in his scouting report, a lot of people were like, well, he's not the greatest pass rusher.

44:49Trevor Sikkema:I was like, I don't care. He's a great run defender, but like for this team specifically, they kind of need some more pass rushers. So somebody has got to be able to get after the quarterback and create that disruption consistently. Chase Young obviously had that, the, the renaissance. I can't remember the term that, that Jordan creatively used there for Chase Young. We've been doing sanses.

45:08Jourdan Rodrigue:We've been doing sanses. Okay. There you go.

45:09Trevor Sikkema:We've had a sansa sans. Yeah. okay that one was good that got me but somebody else has to get after the quarterback or create consistent pressures um outside of just chase young so that to me is is definitely the things go wrong if for me it's on that defensive side of the football yeah like cam jordan has a hamstring injury by the time you guys hear this maybe we'll have more news on it the tone kellen moore had sounded to me like it was like a best case scenario we'll see him at the beginning of the regular season.

45:41Jourdan Rodrigue:I ever change his tone though. That's fair. That's he also avoids answering questions. He's, he's grown up though. I think, I think he's getting better. He's a little less. Like this is an older, it's an older group. We all grow up.

45:53Trevor Sikkema:Yeah. It's, I hope so. That was a, yeah. Like, you know, I don't, I don't, I don't know how, I don't know how strong of a statement that was there. Technically I get older every year, you know, I'm saying he looked uncomfortable being a head coach for a while last year. And then I think he kind of, you know, grew into his comfort in his own skin. You know what I mean? It was like uncomfortable to watch those press conferences with Kellen Moore when they ask him something and he doesn't want to lie. And then he just like kind of fritzes out. It's just like a screen of death. But as a human, like they got, it's very Mickey Loomis this offseason that they decided to get younger at linebacker by getting rid of DeMario Davis.

46:28And then they get Caden Ellis.

46:31Jourdan Rodrigue:Just barely younger. So like five years younger, but he's still 32. And like Brisee's gone. and I like Jonas Sanker, but if he's, you know, covering your guy one-on-one, which you got to do sometime in the slot and then the secondary is okay. Like it's a lot of okay and the scheme hopefully makes up for it.

46:50Trevor Sikkema:But I do wonder if they have the horses. Now I understand why this is your biggest variance team. Listening to you talk about the defense like that because I'm just higher on the defense than you are and I think that's why my ceiling and floor is getting different.

47:03Jourdan Rodrigue:I am too. I know you couldn't tell. I know. To me, it's also like Eric McCoy is either a Pro Bowl caliber center or he's what he actually has been, which is not available. He hasn't been available for four years consistently. So there's no real reason based on that to think he'll be available. Cesar Ruiz is a guy who would not be on the team if they hadn't given him a regrettable contract. Fuaga and Banks could be one of the best young tackle groups in the league. Fuaga's had a lot of injuries. And then Olave and Tyson, it's just a lot of variance. Even Shuck going back to his college, it just feels like ceiling, floor, ceiling, floor.

47:42It's all over the place. So to me, I think they could be as crazy as like an 11-win team. And the floor is, yeah, they're back in last place as like a five or six-win team.

47:50Jourdan Rodrigue:One last thing I want to say is that, Greg, you and I always talk about scheme meeting players and players meeting scheme. And your point about can Brandon Staley continue to stay ahead is absolutely a good one. And my theory and what I posit here is he already got ahead. And because he has a player like Jonas Sankar in the slot, the way that other teams are going to try to deploy their, their Buffalo nickel, essentially this year, he is already ahead and it's the players now that bring it to life. And it's certainly with the coverage principles as well. And I think that's why I'm a lot higher on the, on, I guess, the variance or lack thereof to me of this defense this year, you know, my ceiling and floor already, but I do think that this is, to me, a sleeper best team in the NFC South for me.

48:36Trevor Sikkema:I have the ceiling at 11-6, and I have the floor at 8-9. I don't see this team really failing. Now, whether they win the division or not, we'll see, but specifically, when you look at their schedule, from week 3 to week 10, there's seven weeks in between there. They're at home for five of those seven weeks. one of them's an international game and the other week is a bi-week so like that stretch could be huge for that team if they nail it if they if they go into like week 10 and they're sitting here at i don't know like six and two or something i don't know math off the top of my head but like if they like look like juggernauts in the division that might be able to carry them through a tougher second half of the season but uh yeah i i have i think the floor is pretty high for this team i just have a lot of faith in what Cal Moore is.

49:26I like the optimism. They are predicted, you know, that they're favored to be second place, but the Bucs being in first, it's not a huge gap. It's a division where like you would take the field over any particular team. That's what the numbers are telling you. So it's not a huge gap between the Bucs and the Saints or between the Saints and the Panthers, but they are sort of expected the Saints to come in second, which, you know, leaves the Bucs in an interesting time in their development. Like, it's like, A lot on them this year. And yet I do think they have the most talent in the division. What's bringing you joy about this team right now, Jordan?

50:01Jourdan Rodrigue:Chris Godwin. Back in year two after the gruesome, gruesome injury and subsequent recovery. Chris Godwin. Trevor, I'll loop you in on this too. And I know, you know, you're so knowledgeable about the Bucs in general. Chris Godwin's probably about as my guy as a player has ever been in the NFL. He's the first player I ever watched film with when I was covering college football. Like, taught me a lot. Like he, he, I want good things for him. And the fact that he is now putting more distance behind him and his back without Mike Evans here, he should become the featured player. I also was the co-founder of the Emeka at boot club and really hoping for a bounce back from the end of the season for him, maybe with less on his plate than he had last season.

50:43Jourdan Rodrigue:I just think more clarity and featured roles for these two guys. That is bringing me joy. I hope that Chris Godwin can get back to being the F player in this offense. F, you know, stands for a lot of things, but to me also funnels the entire offense through this guy. And I really, really feel like Chris Godwin at his best is capable of doing that. Yeah, even during last season, it felt like he had more juice by the end of it. But you're absolutely right, like how important he is. What's bringing you joy about this Bucs team? You're Bucs, Trevor. Let's be real. Cook, Trevor, cook.

51:13Trevor Sikkema:Reuben Bain Jr., number 15 overall. How does this happen? Honestly, this is what's bringing me joy because I'll be honest, Like there are some things to be happy about sort of like on the defensive side of the football. I'll dig into some of these other ones in these different categories that we talk about. But if you take Ruben Mayne Jr. Off of this team, I don't think it's that scary. Right. And you're talking about a team with the defensive head coach and Todd Bowles. Like it's all about the defense needs to be up to a certain standard. Like they already could not get after the passer last year.

51:44Trevor Sikkema:If they did not, I don't want to say this, like take away from the Intel and the, the scouting department did, but like if they don't luck into Reuben Payne Jr. in the middle of the draft, like I don't know where this team would be when it comes to getting after the passer and the outlook for it this upcoming year. So to me, with him now on that defensive line, you have so many different possibilities. And that brings me into sort of like a scheme dream if we're talking about the defensive side of the ball. Like, well, I guess I'll just rope all of it. Go for it. Do it. Cook. My most important non-quarterback is Vita Vea.

52:17Trevor Sikkema:You can't trade him. They're not going to trade him. Like it's just, it's not going to happen. Without him, none of this works because you have a smaller defensive tackle in Kalei Jekanze, who you have to have more from this year from an availability standpoint and just an overall, like, he's got to take the next step type of a standpoint. You have, obviously, Ruben Bain Jr., who's a bigger defensive end, but you kind of kick him a little bit inside-outside. He doesn't have that length that everybody talked about ad nauseum throughout the draft. And then the sleeper is David Walker, who is from Central Arkansas, a sack master when he was in college, who tore his ACL, or did he tear his Achilles?

52:49Trevor Sikkema:I can't remember exactly which one it was, but he missed the entire year last year. He's back, and according to all practice reports, he's tearing it up every single day. I don't know if this is still a streak today, but at one point he had a sack in nine straight practices for them over the last week and a half. So my scheme dream is getting to a point where Todd Bowles loves to be creative in how he throws pressure at you. Basically, the only one who has more exotic blitzes and different types of blitzes is Brian Flores. It's basically just the Vikings and the Bucs that have been one-two the last two or three years.

53:18Trevor Sikkema:So the scheme dream is getting to a point where if you have Vita Veya in the middle and he's still the Vita Veya that you know him to be, you can have Yaya Diaby, David Walker, Ruben Bain Jr., Kalei Jekansi all on the field at the same time and just tell them, go. And I just don't know many offensive lines in the league that are able to handle that sort of chaos. So to me is setting this team up in whatever way you need to, to be able to have that sort of defensive line unleashed on offensive lines throughout the season. Cause I think a variety of that, but also those guys on the field at the same time could make this defense again, a very, uh, I'll say mysterious.

53:54Trevor Sikkema:And I mean, that is a terrifying way. If you're an offensive coordinator type of way that we didn't see over the last couple of seasons. Yeah. I think they could be dynamic on all three levels of the decent defense. We'll see about linebacker with Josiah Trider. But that was what's bringing me joy, too, is like that. I mean, is there a defensive line, especially at the edge position, that you had like taken like a big barroom brawl over this group? I mean, you throw Al-Kahin Muhammad in as like the fourth or third guy. I mean, this group is so much deeper and better. And I want to see the Bulls, the Sans.

54:27The first time I actually used Sans in that way around the NFL show was because of the Bulls, Assange, with the Bucs. He's coming back from the Jets, and he was the coordinator for the Bucs, and I just loved watching him. And it's been a minute. I don't need to tell you this as a Bucs fan, Trevor, since they've had a difference-making defense. I went and looked at it. I couldn't believe it. They've been averaged the last four years or five years. The last time they had a top 10 DVOA defense was the last time they won the Super Bowl. Like, it's been a while. And yet, I do. I think the ceiling of this defense is quite high.

55:05I'm really excited to watch it. I think Bowles has the right mix of players. So you did some, you know, most important non-quarterback there with Vita Vea. Who do you got for that category?

55:16Jourdan Rodrigue:Yeah, I'm going to be kind of the variance downer here, guys, because mine also goes into, like, my scheme dream slash big question mark. Zach Robinson is to me. And when I say most important, I'm hoping for the Bucs. That means it's a good thing. I don't know for sure. if that is a good thing. What I would really like for Zach Robinson to do is call up his buddy, Liam Cohen, and ask if he can borrow that 2024 Tampa Bay Buccaneers run game and see, hey, I would really like to add more diversity in my run game than I just showed with one of the best players in football in Bajon Robinson. In 2024, not only did the Bucs have a top five run game in success rate, but the most important thing to me was that they had really good inside and outside run game balance.

56:03Jourdan Rodrigue:Like their frequency rates, it wasn't totally split evenly, but it was close enough to where you don't really know. They're not giving you tells directionally or conceptually which way they're going to go with this. And then with all of that, they were third in explosive run rate. So to me, those two things are absolutely key to getting this entire offense back to what we expect it to be, what its highest version of itself will be. And to not put it all on Baker Mayfield's arm, which as much as I love Baker Mayfield and will stand by him on this show until you put me in the ground, Greg. Baker ball.

56:39Jourdan Rodrigue:Keep sun rolling, baby. You cannot put it all on his arm. It is too streaky of an arm to put it all on his arm. And so for me, Zach Robinson is sort of the metaphorical figure of all of that, but it's a lot of different ideas in one. I mean, he's the fourth coordinator for Baker in as many years now. and Zach Robinson's also the, you know, he's the offensive coordinator. He was with the Falcons. So it's, you know, in the division, he moves over. Didn't necessarily think he was going to get a job. He did. They're talking about a lot of outside zone, as Jordan was saying, like they're going to major in that.

57:13Do they have a second tight end they can really trust to execute all this? Do they play some like more spread like they did with Atlanta last year? What are you thinking about the Zach Robinson-Baker marriage here, Trevor?

57:26Trevor Sikkema:I mean, it's... I think it could be fine. Like, I think it could be good. Honestly, I just - Deep side to I think it could be fine is not what you want if you're a Bucs fan. The problem is exactly what Jordan talked about. Mayfield's variance has gone with him throughout his entire NFL career, and it was no greater than last year. Through the first six weeks of the season, he was an MVP candidate. We were talking about Baker Mayfield being the front runner for MVP five and six weeks into the season. They walked into Seattle and beat the Seahawks, right? I mean, like, this is a team that was so good at the beginning of the year.

58:06Trevor Sikkema:But then at Pro Football Focus, there was an accuracy stat for quarterbacks, uncatchable, inaccurate passes. All accuracy was sort of, like, divided into these four different categories, but the worst of them was uncatchable, inaccurate passes. So, obviously, you can understand how bad a pass is to be categorized like that. baker led the nfl in uncatchable inaccurate passes in the second half of the season he did so how do you go from being an mvp candidate in the first six weeks of the year to quite literally the most inaccurate consistent starting quarterback in the league that's the thing is is the right offensive coordinator for the buccaneers is simply the one that that has more good baker mayfield than bad yeah he's coaching the jaguars right now yeah well he is unfortunately and he's the one who was able to unlock that the most and i i think zach robinson has the potential to be a good match for baker mayfield the big sigh is just because throughout his entire career mayfield has been so up and down outside of with one coach and that coach is obviously like you mentioned on the jags now so it's truly a i don't know what it takes for the scheme i don't know what it takes for the tempo i don't know whatever it is it's just getting in his ear and making him the better version of Mayfield than the bad version of Mayfield.

59:23Trevor Sikkema:And that's sort of as simply as I could put it. It is a lot went into that. Obviously he was hurt by the end of the year. The offensive line was hurt. The receivers were hurt. There were reasons for it. I don't think he ever was nearly as good as an MVP. And I was making that argument because in all those games, like he would struggle for three, like you got the variance in the game and then he turned it on at the end.

59:41Jourdan Rodrigue:None of us was making the MVP argument. Right. I'm just saying, but like, that was a big, a big storyline and everything. But yeah, you just, you just need a bit of a steadier thing and Baker is part of my things go wrong if it's just a team that's had a lot of expectations that's been at a certain point could they be a little bit of the opposite of the Panthers here where the the vibes go wrong because of the expectations and the pressure and that Vita Vea one of the most important players on the team Baker Mayfield one of the most important players on the team you know are in contract situations you have Cody Mock who is important too and Yaya Diaby who are also in contract.

1:00:17I'm making my free agency list. It's a lot of bucks here at near the top of that list league wide and so I do think there could be something ineffable Jordan that just like sinks this team a little bit that you couldn't really put like they could be less than the sum of their parts potentially.

1:00:33Jourdan Rodrigue:You have the Saints as your highest variance team here in this discussion today. To me the bucks are because we saw it last year. honestly I mean we saw steady improvement even from the Falcons who were chaotic at the beginning of the year their defense really carried them down the stretch and some of their skill guys really stood out Panthers seriously improved especially through the back half and into their into their little playoff run the Saints improved the Bucs like cratered one minute and so that for me you know as much as I want to see the Bucs be successful because I love this team I love how they're built.

1:01:09Jourdan Rodrigue:I trust this front office to draft and develop, but man, the variance to me is off the charts. Yeah. I think they could be really good. You know, we, we didn't have time to even like hit. They have some really exciting young players. Jacob Parrish, uh, probably going to play a little bit more on the outside. Looked really good. Chianti Scott's like a fun rookie. It's, it's sneaky, even though it's a win now type of team, they have a lot of good young talent. And so that's why they are my pick to win the division. I will put their ceiling. I put the Saints at 11. Could the Bucks get to 12 wins with this schedule?

1:01:41Jourdan Rodrigue:That's going to hurt you to say it. I think their ceiling's about the same, actually, as the Saints, but I think they're the team that is going to win the division at 11. I have them as the much higher floor, though. I think they're like a 8 or 9 win to 11 win. Honest question because I didn't look this up and I should have. When is the last time NFC South team was an 11 win team? Was it that Super Bowl year? No, because I think the year after the Super Bowl was actually their best team in the regular season. So that would have been it. Both of those teams. It's been a while. 11 and 13. That's a good point.

1:02:18The Bucs have not, even though they won all those divisions, they were not getting over.

1:02:22Jourdan Rodrigue:9 and 8. 8 and 9. They're pretty good. What do you got, Trevor? It's tough when it's your team because sometimes you're harder on your own team. But let's hear it.

1:02:31Trevor Sikkema:No, I give them the same ceiling as the Saints. It's 11 and 6, I think. I don't know if they can get to 12. The floor, I have them at 6-11, and you're looking at a major, like Mayfield's gone, Bowles is gone. You're moving on from some of those free agents like you probably mentioned. But I will say this about the Bucs. Their schedule does, I think, lend itself to them. If you want to look at sort of who they're playing and when they're playing it, I like Tampa's schedule the most. They're at Cincinnati to start the season, which objectively is tough going up against that Bengals team. But then they're at home for three straight games in the months of September and October when it is hot in Tampa Bay, let me tell you.

1:03:09Trevor Sikkema:And they are playing up north team, Cleveland, up north team, Minnesota, up north team, Green Bay. So like Minnesota and Green Bay, obviously good teams, but they're coming down, they're having to play Tampa in the heat there to start the season. And then it's sort of basically just away game, home game, away game, home game for most of the rest of the season. And you have a middle of the season bye week in week 10. you then get the saints twice out of your last four games of the season. If you think New Orleans is going to be that team. So like, I just think if you're looking at X factors here, like if it's close between all of these teams, the saints, the bucks, the Panthers, I think the schedule lends itself to Tampa coming out on top because of how things are shaking out.

1:03:49I'm bumping up my ceiling for the buck. So let's go, let's go to 12. I agree. 17 and O seems realistic there. Cause I, in my heart, I do believe it. I do think there is a route in the schedules, not, easy you get the afc north out of division you get the rams out of division late in the season too you get the nfc north which is really balanced uh so my my division prediction is bucks one saints two panthers three falcons four which is pretty chalky what do you got trevor you got it you got to do it we're holding it holding you to all right bucks all right bucks

1:04:25Jourdan Rodrigue:one saints two panthers three falcons i'm gonna pull an old greg rosenthal right here this could mean anything right i'm gonna go saints one i'm gonna go bucks two sorry to my beloved panthers it's the end i'm gonna go panthers three and falcons four but i'm gonna go i'm gonna zig when you guys zag and go saints one okay i thought you know if we did this a month ago before the vibes and maybe i would have picked panther i was gonna say you might you might have had the Panthers won. I was feeling that vibe for you all off. Don't get too freaked out. It's, you know. Omens and signs. These guys can get healthier.

1:05:02Omens and signs. We'll see. A great sign is that, you know, the three of us enjoy podcasting together. I hope we can do this again sometime. Yeah. Trevor, thank you. This is great. For double duty on the South Divisions. And that's it for Trevor here. But Jordan will be back with me on our next show, which will be taped live from Chargers camp on Tuesday. Let's hit that music. Let's get out of here. We got a busy week. Like I said, we'll do some news from Chargers camp. We'll do the Chargers. And we also have an interview, a Power Players episode with Nick Kaley, the play caller for the Houston Texans.

1:05:37That is next in the feed. Him and Jordan. Great conversation. Please check that out. The two of them are going to unlock CJ Stroud together. See you then.

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1:06:27Trevor Sikkema:The entire draft room groans because you just took the guy they wanted. There's no better feeling than crushing your fantasy football league. I'm JJ Zacharyson, host of the award-winning Late Round Podcast. Before your draft, our Players to Target and Players to Avoid episodes tell you exactly who to circle and who to cross off. Listen to the Late Round Fantasy Football Podcast on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

1:06:57Jourdan Rodrigue:This is an iHeart Podcast. Guaranteed human.