NFL Week 13 Picks with Cynthia Frelund

0:00This is an iHeart Podcast. Guaranteed human. Lowe's knows Sundays are for football. So tackle your home improvement projects by Saturday and earn your Sunday with great deals on LG and Bosch appliances, select Bounty and Swiffer cleaning products, and more. Then once your to-do list is done, get ready to kick back, relax, and enjoy the game. shop in store or online now and earn your sunday with help from lowe's official partner of the nfl wasabi is purpose-built to free your business from skyrocketing storage costs and fees wasabi is the go-to provider for professional and collegiate sports teams around the world check out wasabi's ai-enabled intelligent media storage wasabi air to the industry's only cloud storage service with triple protection against cyber criminals.

0:55Wasabi, driving innovation in data storage for up to 80 % less than market competition. Try for free at wasabi.com. Wasabi, hot cloud storage, proud partner of iHeart Podcast Network. Based on hundreds of millions of real world tests, the experts of Ookla SpeedTest have spoken. T-Mobile is the best mobile network in America. With the most advanced 5G, the most towers, and the largest satellite to mobile network, T-Mobile keeps you connected almost anywhere. If you're ready to stay connected wherever life takes you, head over to your local store or T-Mobile.com to switch to the best network. T-Mobile has the best mobile network in the U.S.

1:41based on analysis by Ookla of Speed Test Intelligence Data 2H2025. T-satellite available with compatible device in most outdoor areas in the U.S. where you can see the sky. Included with Experience Beyond or$10 per month. Auto renews monthly. Cancel anytime. Are you looking for support in your weight management journey? ZepBound Terzepatide may be able to help. ZepBound is a prescription medicine used with a reduced calorie diet and increased physical activity to help adults with obesity, or some adults with overweight who also have weight-related medical problems to lose excess body weight and keep the weight off.

2:24ZepBound is approved as a 2.5, 5, 7.5, 10, 12.5, or 15 milligram injection. ZepBound contains terzepatide and should not be used with other terzepatide-containing products or any GLP-1 receptor agonist medicines. It is not known if ZepBound is safe and effective for use in children. Don't share needles or pens or reuse needles. Don't take if allergic to it. Or if you or someone in your family had medullary thyroid cancer, or if you've had multiple endocrine neoplasia syndrome type 2, tell your doctor if you get a lump or swelling in your neck. Stop ZepBound and call your doctor if you have severe stomach pain or a serious allergic reaction.

3:02Severe side effects may include inflamed pancreas or gallbladder problems. Tell your doctor if you experience vision changes before scheduled procedures with anesthesia, if you're nursing, pregnant, plan-to-be, or taking birth control pills. Taking ZepBound with a sulfonylurea or insulin may cause low blood sugar. Side effects include nausea, diarrhea, and vomiting, which can cause dehydration and worsen kidney problems. Talk to your doctor. Call 1-800-545-5979 or visit zepbounds.lily.com.

3:38Welcome to NFL Daily, where we're ready for some post-Thanksgiving winners. I'm Greg Rosenthal here in the Chris Wesseling Podcast Studio with my friend, Cynthia Freeland, for a special holiday edition of our picks. That was the Colleen Wolfe voice. We used to call this man versus model. It was your computer model. You're the busiest woman in show business this week. no it's we all this weird schedule so we have to we it's it's the most fun week of the year i just do a lot of extra cooking which makes things very great yes but you know you're on the game day morning on thanksgiving morning for like a second we're putting this up uh on thanksgiving morning we had game day view it we have all of our preview shows so please check that all out and when i say we're looking for post-thanksgiving winners the reason i said that cynthia is because for this show, we decided, look, this is going up pretty close to those games.

4:33Let's pick the games after Thanksgiving. We pick three games every week against the spread. Last week, I kept my winning streak going and I finished two and one. So eighth straight week that I've had a winning record on this show. You got back on the winning track. So that is good to hear. Unfortunately, like, why are you shaking your head? Oh, no, I've just got a long way to go. You know, I just got to I got a long way to go. OK, we'll do it then by picking some winners here. Yeah, you are up. Let's go first. Give me the Rams, the Rams to cover. OK, that was one of the ones I was thinking about.

5:12So I like that L.A.R. versus C.A.R. It's at Carolina. It's ten and a half points. That's the last I saw. I don't even care if you can bid that all the way up to 13. I think they win. I think they win going away. This is the best team in football right now against a team that, you know, So they looked, it was a very bad game that San Francisco, I mean, just a, it was a tough, tough hang. It was a tough hang for that one. So I'm looking at that game and Carolina caused some turnovers. We saw some weird, I don't think against Matthew Stafford and this offense and that defense is not going to look the same.

5:47So it might be boring, but for different reasons. Yeah. I think that could be like a three score game very easily. Carolina's defense. If you're going to beat the Rams, you have to get some pressure on Matthew Stafford. Like a lot of pressure on Matthew Stafford. They don't get any pressure. No, their linebackers struggling. I think it could be bad against this tight end group. And ultimately, I don't think I don't find the Carolina Panthers risky like that. Serious. That's serious of a football. At least as a playoff. You didn't like my like, I think it was a beautiful pun. The family weekend.

6:18You need a pun. Okay. So you pointed out the Rams that that was one of the ones I was thinking about. And they were in a category. I like a lot of games this week. You do? I do. Okay. There was a category of games and I wanted to mix it up between the categories. And so I was going to pick one and I was like, okay, I won't pick the one Cynthia's picking. That's how many games I like. And this category was, you know, I'm really good and you did not give like enough points. Like you could give 13 points like you said and it wouldn't be enough. I would still take the Rams. And so here's the category of teams I would throw in that mix this week.

6:54I'm only going to take one of them. The Broncos. I mean, they're only getting six points against that Commanders team. I'd be fine with that. The Seahawks. They're only getting 10 and a half points against Max Brosmer and the Vikings. I think that could be one. And you're free to take one of those because I'm not. This is a category of games. The Rams would be in that mix. But of that group, of like the heavy favorites who I still think it's not enough, give me the Los Angeles Chargers. Minus 10 this week against the I don't want to be around here anymore Raiders offense and team. And I know they fired Chip Kelly and maybe they get a little fired coach bounce.

7:30It's somehow better with Greg Olson. But I think the Chargers coming off a bye. They've been a different team, especially on defense at home. We saw this Chargers Raiders matchup earlier in the year. The Raiders offense had nothing going on in that game. I have no reason to believe that that offensive line can stop Tule and Khalil Mack and Adafi Owe and everything going on with the Chargers defense. I'm pretty sure Omari and Hampton will be back in this one too, which, you know, that's a plus. Like, I'm with you on the entire analysis. I'm with you if the price were bid up to even more points as a differential between the two.

8:05I don't think that the coach bump that would potentially happen here is going to, I don't know if O-lines get the coach. I don't know if they get the memo on that. Maybe some skill players do, but like, I think the O-line, and as good as we've seen Ashton Gentry V in general, because he'd have to run against the Chargers to have some sort of, you know, answer to that pressure that you're talking about. He gets hit behind the line of scrimmage on pretty much all of his yards. The amount of yards he's actually run for versus the ones that have counted as positive. It's massive. So it's just, yeah.

8:37And the offensive line coach is Pete Carroll's son. So you're not getting the bump and you're not firing your son. We talked a little bit about this on the previous show. I love Pete. That's the right move. I do feel bad and you cannot fire your son. You have a whole. I'm not firing my son. I had a son to live. Right. I'm saying if you Pete Carroll. Right. No, you got to. Absolutely not. It was some Nepo baby stuff. Not probably the right hire. But ultimately, you got to go down as a family. And I'm going to go up picking against the Raiders. Maybe every week. They are one of the worst NFL teams I've ever seen.

9:10I actually was surprised this number was so low. So that's the team I'll pick out of that category of games. That's my first pick. All right. I'm not even going to get started on their draft class. Because if you look at. Not good. Anyways. All right. You can go. And you could pick from that category. I'm going to pick from that category. Oh, you are. I saw your eyes light up here. I came prepared. Okay. Because I got real serious this week. Oh, okay. You know, I really did. You had a winning week last week. You want to build on that. I got to build on my wins, right? So, Denver, you talked about that.

9:38Yeah. So, okay. Yeah. I'm sure you're going to give me a little bit of bait. I'm going to take it. Six points? Mm-hmm. All right. So number one, Denver's defense, you know, everyone, we watched Houston's defense in the big time spotlight against the bills. Denver's even is like, excuse me. Do you not remember what we did to Patrick Mahomes? I have an issue to raise you. Right. So I'm looking at that and saying, and then look, like I love Dan Quinn. He's a really nice man. I don't think his defense can have, has enough, even if they kind of get it all together to stop even the maybe it's just the fourth quarter for Bo Nix.

10:19It's maybe all he needs. But I think this is where Bo Nix takes this step and kind of turns this corner of like only the screen pass dude. I think he goes now and takes a step forward. This is a defense to do it against. Just watch what the Lions did to this secondary before. They don't have a lot of answers for, you know, even any downfield pass. So. I hope the listeners saw that and the viewers. Cynthia Freeland hit poor Dan Quinn with, he's a nice man. He is so nice. But that's when that happens, you're in trouble. When Cynthia hits you with a he's a nice man, things aren't going well. You were feeling bad for Pete Carroll.

10:57I know. He's so nice, too. I would love to run some analytics on how often a guy who you say is a nice man or you feel bad for covers the number. I bet it's very low. And I'm with you. That line was weird. It did feel like bait. Why was the Broncos only six point? I know it's they're on the road and everything, but it's supposed to be Mariota this week. It's that defense of the commanders. I think the Broncos offense, by the way, might be turning a corner. They played pretty well in that game against. I think so, too. I think they're going to be good the rest of the way. OK. I'm going to go to what's my favorite pick.

11:34It's the Texans. They're getting four and a half points in Indianapolis, and I think they're going to win straight up. And I don't feel incredibly confident about them winning straight up, but I do feel great about them getting four and a half points. A weird number. I think it's a defensive game. And I do get that the underlying numbers and maybe your model reflects that somewhat. I don't really know are really positive on the Colts offense, but they're also really positive on the Texans defense overall. It is a transcendent defense. And I do think getting CJ Stroud is going to really help this offense out as were taping.

12:12It's not official, but he is expected to come back. Yes. And the thing that's really impressed me about the Texans lately with Davis Mills has not been Mills in the passing game. It's been his neck. Well, that is always impressive and he has gotten me some wins. The running game has been better. It's been a pretty good running game with Woody Marks on our show Game Day View. I've been on a little bit of a streak there. We have write this down with player props. Yeah, you're on a great streak there. Woody Marks over 55 and a half rushing yards. That's a little extra for this show. Bonus! I like he's been running great.

12:43And I think they've got some cohesion running the ball up front and the Colts on their defensive line. They're not the same without the forest Buckner. So man, I think this Texan season is turning around. I really do. I think the four and a half is good. Do I think they win straight up? Probably not. But I, I, I don't feel great about that. That's what's what the model. My model does have four and a half points. I have a three point win for Indianapolis, but it's more like a few point six points, which I know people hate fractional points, but whatever. I like it because it's closer to my side.

13:112.6. You're saying you're covering that number by two. That's all we need on this show for me. And I think I'm looking at Houston and remember this is, they have two matchups left with the Colts. So Houston still has the entire division to potentially win here. They have everything to play for. They're coming off of that big high against the bills with something tangible, meaning they found ways to just get Josh Allen, who's a better quarterback than almost anyone. They'll face better quarterback than Daniel Jones. That's not shade. It's just a fact. and you're going to get him off his mark. And they're not dissimilar.

13:44Daniel Jones can run the ball in the way near what Josh Allen can do, but you can get Josh Allen off his game. So I think that the Texas defense is real feisty. You know what I thought though, as you're talking too, it supports your point. Shorter rest for the Colts. Do like a little extra rest for the Texans. And then I'm thinking about how that game played out against the Chiefs last week. 90 snaps for the Colts defense. so that's a tired defense on less rest it's just like another small reason yep it's more about the eyeball test that number one i think this is a special defense and number two i think the offense is improving from disastrous yep to competent like 21st you know what i mean just like right looking like a normal enough jaden higgins starting to play better nico collins looking like nico Collins like everything about it they're just looking respectable that's all I need let's go Texans make my boy Walker happy all right your third pick all right I mean I'm gonna go all over here you you kind of talked about it Seattle okay you're doing it I just think it's an undervalued number I do too you know and if I see a mispraised stock I'm gonna snatch it up because 10 and a half points at home against Minnesota.

15:03I don't know if you saw the weird, when you start to see like strange things coming out in the media, you know, like the home life isn't good there for Minnesota. Yeah. And Minnesota, it's like some weirdo stuff. And I, you know, I'm cool. Max Brosmer. Okay. Like I kind of feel bad for the kid. Like, you know, you're coming in and Justin Jefferson's not had the year that he would have liked to had. And, you know, you see this frustration and these things and like all the stuff's boiling over right the moment. Maybe he needs that VO max. Maybe he needs to, you know, start tracking. I think it might, I mean, I think it'll be an upgrade.

15:36I think it might be an upgrade at quarterback. So that wouldn't be the reason. No, I feel bad for him because it's a bad circumstance. It's, you know, if the starter, if the backup's better than the starter, they'd be the starter. But like, you know, it's just a hard situation to come into. It'd be better if they were, you know, just resting everyone week 18 style. But, you know, we got six games to play. I heard it was actually a Vikings beat writer, right? Something like the only positive from this Packers game is, you know, the next game is after Thanksgiving and we're hitting the end of the season.

16:03And I'm thinking, not really. Six games is a long time in the NFL. Six games is an eternity. And this Seahawks defense is just going to swallow up that injured Vikings offensive line hole. So even if Brosner plays well, and I think he might have something, I think they like him a little bit. I like him a little bit. I mean, I have no feelings on him. You might like him better than JJ McCracken. I just, I don't know about that. I like 10 and a half. Yeah, I just think that Seattle a lot better. I think these this Rams and Seahawks, these two teams are not only the best teams in the NFL. I think they're the best teams in the NFL with like a tier below to whoever is three and four.

16:40And so that's why I think you're right. The good news is, is that it feels so much more wide open than any other recent season. So maybe we won't see like a repeat of the same Super Bowl. You know, like I feel like I've seen the Chiefs a lot, seen the Eagles a good amount. You know, maybe we see Rams in there, but it's been a while. But maybe some new blood. It's been five years since the race played it. I'm just saying it would be fun to see different colors, you know. OK, so I have one more pick to go. Now, I have certain rules. You have rules. You know, maxims that I go by. OK. One of them is don't pick against your own team because then you don't really enjoy either way.

17:18And I broke that rule earlier this season when I went against the Patriots. and you know what they covered that week and so I was wrong and I was annoyed by it so I will not pick against the Patriots this week they are favored by seven and a half against the Giants but I'm just going to be real for people who like extra picks people who like extra picks too they're like why only three give us more I know my neighbor said that we've been kind of giving a few more this week I really like the Giants to cover that number this week but I'm not going to make that one a month no don't do that I just don't know.

17:51I want to enjoy it if the Patriots win big, but I don't think they will because their offensive line was struggling to run block and really pass protect before losing the entire left side of their offensive line. They can't run the ball right now in general and their defensive line quietly, not nearly the same without Milton Williams. I think the Giants are a very frisky team. I just think it's going to be a good ball game and seven and a half is too many points. So putting that to this. I'm with you. You're with me. Okay. Here's the final category. and it's one of the maximum. You just look at the lines and especially on lines that are like six and above or so.

18:27You're like, this NFL team has not earned the right to be favored by six points in any game. And I don't even care what the opponent is. I don't care about the situation. It's just, you haven't earned the right to be six point favorites. There's two candidates. So maybe we'll talk them through. But I like them both. The Miami Dolphins are six point favorites over the Saints. They they're the Miami Dolphins. And I got to admit the team I'm leaning towards. Even though they're seven and four Jacksonville Jaguars. I don't know. I've earned the right to be six and a half point favorites in Tennessee.

19:02And I know the opponent should matter to me, but I've watched the Titans the last few weeks. A little better. They've gotten a little bit better and it's a points in Seattle. It's a division matchup. The Titans are at home too. So in this case, the Dolphins are at home, but the Jaguars are six and a half point favorites on the road. Neither of these teams, I feel like, have earned the right to be this big a favorite. Just blindly, I will take the other side in these games. I think I'm leaning towards the Titans covering. And look, they covered last week against the Seahawks. I like it. You like the Seahawks last.

19:35I mean, you like the Titans last week to cover. Yeah, I think that they cover again. And I talked you out of it. I tried to talk you out of it. It got murky. It got murky, but I'm I'm I actually am with you like I think there's something about this team and I and I don't I don't like you're getting special teams things to start happening they're they're digging down there you know like it's it's one of those things where it's like well what do we got to lose let's figure this out you know like let's have a little fun does it mean you win games no but it means you keep it closer yeah and uh I do like the the Saints to cover that six despite how poorly they've played they've kind of been in every other week team you might get a better performance out of them against the Dolphins.

20:15But ultimately, yes, I'm going to go with the Titans, who to me, eye test wise, they've just been better. Overall, defensively, came words playing pretty well. And more than anything, I don't know what this Jaguars team is. No one does. They just... Do you think they know? Their success rate on design runs last week were 20%. And yet they had a couple big runs. Like, I don't even know. I don't know what to do with them. And so it's a division game. I think the Titans keep it close. That's what we do here. That's what we do. We give winners. We love winners. Eight straight weeks for me. You're feeling good.

20:44You're crushing me on Game Day View. Everyone check that out. That's on NFL Network throughout the weekend, by the way. And it's also on YouTube, I should point out. They call it Game Picks on YouTube, but they put our show up on YouTube. It would say like Week 13 Game Picks. So if you're watching us on YouTube in terms of NFL Daily, thank you. And you just head over there and then head over to Cynthia's channel, Numbers Game. Yeah. And then you got the show with Logan Ryan too. NFL IQ. NFL IQ. Cynthia, the hardest working woman in the building. Says the man who literally works seven days a week.

21:19It's a nice compliment. Let's get out of here. Let's go eat some turkey. Leftovers. Hope everyone listening has a great Thanksgiving and a great weekend. Because we'll be back. We'll actually be back next in this feed, Black Friday. so we're doing a recap of the Thanksgiving games and the Black Friday game come have some fun with us then thank you Cynthia Happy Thanksgiving Wasabi is purpose built to free your business from skyrocketing storage costs and fees Wasabi is the go-to provider for professional and collegiate sports teams around the world check out Wasabi's AI enabled intelligent media storage Wasabi Air to the industry's only cloud storage service with triple protection against cyber criminals Wasabi, driving innovation and data storage for up to 80 % less than market competition.

22:11Try for free at Wasabi.com. Wasabi Hot Cloud Storage, proud partner of the iHeart Podcast Network. Lowe's knows Sundays are for football. So tackle your home improvement projects by Saturday and earn your Sunday with great deals on LG and Bosch appliances, select Bounty and Swiffer cleaning products, and more. Then once your to-do list is done, get ready to kick back, relax, and enjoy the game. Shop in store or online now and earn your Sunday with help from Lowe's, official partner of the NFL. Are you looking for support in your weight management journey? ZepBound Terzepatide may be able to help.

22:48ZepBound is a prescription medicine used with a reduced calorie diet and increased physical activity to help adults with obesity. Or some adults with overweight who also have weight-related medical problems to lose excess body weight and keep the weight off. ZepBound is approved as a 2.5, 5, 7.5, 10, 12.5, or 15 milligram injection. ZepBound contains terzepatide and should not be used with other terzepatide-containing products or any GLP-1 receptor agonist medicines. It is not known if ZepBound is safe and effective for use in children. Don't share needles or pens or reuse needles. Don't take if allergic to it.

23:25Or if you or someone in your family had medullary thyroid cancer, or if you've had multiple endocrine neoplasia syndrome type 2. Tell your doctor if you get a lump or swelling in your neck. Stop ZepBound and call your doctor if you have severe stomach pain or a serious allergic reaction. Severe side effects may include inflamed pancreas or gallbladder problems. Tell your doctor if you experience vision changes before scheduled procedures with anesthesia. If you're nursing, pregnant, plan to be, or taking birth control pills. Taking ZepBound with a sulfonylurea or insulin may cause low blood sugar.

23:56Side effects include nausea, diarrhea, and vomiting, which can cause dehydration and worsen kidney problems. Talk to your doctor. Call 1-800-545-5979 or visit zepbounce.lily.com. I'm U.S. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy. We all get distracted when we drive, but how we handle these distractions can be a matter of life or death. Please put your phones on silent and take a mental note to focus on driving. Paid for by NHTSA. Hi, it's Karen in Georgia from My Favorite Murder. We cruised around L.A. in the Hyundai Ioniq 5 and dove into the fascinating life of actress and inventor Hedy Lamarr. Want the full story?

24:36Take a listen. She starts dating Howard Hughes. And in fact, she helps him design a faster plane. So she finds the fastest bird and the fastest fish and sketches out a drawing of what the two would look like as a plane. And that becomes the plane that we know today. And he calls her a genius. Check out our new episode spotlighting groundbreaking innovators like Hedy Lamarr and Billie Jean King. Presented by the Hyundai Ioniq 5. Goodbye. This is an iHeart Podcast. Guaranteed human.